- International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
- Published Date:
- January 1992
© 1992 International Monetary Fund
Charts and cover design: IMF Graphics Section
World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
World economic outlook: a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund.—1980- —Washington, D.C.: The Fund, 1980-
v.; 28 cm.—(1981-84: Occasional paper/International Monetary Fund ISSN 0251-6365)
Has occasional updates, 1984-
ISSN 0258-7440 = World economic and financial surveys
ISSN 0256-6877 = World economic outlook (Washington)
1. Economic history—1971- —Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund)
AACR 2 MARC-S
Library of Congress 8507
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Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in this report. It has been assumed that average real effective exchange rates will remain constant at their March 1-13, 1992 levels except for the bilateral rates among the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) currencies, which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms; that “present” policies of national authorities will be maintained; that the average price of oil will be $16.68 a barrel in 1992, $17.20 a barrel in 1993, and remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; and that the six-month U.S. dollar LIBOR will average 4½ percent in 1992 and 5½ percent in 1993. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections themselves are based on statistical information available on April 10, 1992.
The following conventions have been used throughout the report:
… to indicate that data are not available;
— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown;
– between years or months (e.g., 1991-92 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years or months (e.g., 1991/92) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
As used in this report, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
The projections and analysis contained in the World Economic Outlook are an integral element of the IMF’s ongoing surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries and of the global economic system. The IMF has published the World Economic Outlook annually from 1980 to 1983 and biannually since 1984.
The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on the information the Fund staff gathers through its consultations with member countries. These consultations are carried out in particular by the Fund’s area departments together with the Exchange and Trade Relations and Fiscal Affairs Departments.
The country projections are prepared by the Fund’s area departments on the basis of internationally consistent assumptions about world activity, exchange rates, and conditions in international financial and commodity markets. For approximately 50 of the largest economies—accounting for 90 percent of world output—the projections are updated for each World Economic Outlook exercise. For smaller countries, the estimates are based on the projections prepared at the time of the regular Article IV consultations with member countries or in connection with the use of Fund resources: for these countries, the estimates used in the World Economic Outlook are updated incrementally to reflect changes in global economic conditions.
The analysis in the World Economic Outlook draws extensively on the ongoing work of the Fund’s area and specialized departments, and is coordinated in the Research Department under the general direction of Michael Mussa, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. The World Economic Outlook project is directed by Flemming Larsen, Assistant Director, together with Peter B. Clark, Chief of the World Economic Studies Division.
Other contributors to the current issue include David T. Coe, Michael Wattleworth, Staffan Gorne, Garry J. Schinasi, Przemyslaw Gajdeczka, Manmohan S. Kumar, Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, Enrique G. Mendoza, and José M. Barrionuevo. Steven A. Symansky, Leonardo Bartolini, and Sheila Bassett generated the model simulations underlying the alternative scenarios. The authors of the annexes are indicated in each case. The Fiscal Analysis Division of the Fiscal Affairs Department computed the fiscal impulse measures. Anthony G. Turner, Sungcha Hong Cha, and Ton Kuan provided research assistance, and Cathy Wright coordinated data processing. Esha Ray of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication. Susan Duff, Margarita Lorenz-Santin, and Nora Mori-Whitehouse were responsible for word processing.
The analysis has benefitted from comments and suggestions by staff from other departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the World Economic Outlook on April 6, 8, and 10, 1992. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.