- International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
- Published Date:
- January 1991
© 1991 International Monetary Fund
World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
World economic outlook: a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund.—1980– —Washington, D.C.: The Fund, 1980–
v.; 28 cm.—(1981–84: Occasional paper/International Monetary Fund ISSN 0251–6365)
Has occasional updates, 1984–
ISSN 0258-7440 = World economic and financial surveys
ISSN 0256-6877 = World economic outlook (Washington)
1. Economic history—1971– —Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund)
AACR 2 MARC-S
Library of Congress 8507
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Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in this report. It has been assumed that average real effective exchange rates will remain constant at their August 1–22, 1991, levels except for the bilateral rates among the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) currencies, which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms; that “present” policies of national authorities will be maintained; that the average price of oil will be $18.43 a barrel in 1991, $18.61 a barrel in 1992, and remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; and that the six-month U.S. dollar LIBOR will average 6.6 percent in 1991 and 7.0 percent in 1992. These are, of course, working assumptions rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections themselves are based on statistical information available on or before September 27, 1991.
The following conventions have been used throughout the report:
… to indicate that data are not available;
— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown;
- between years or months (e.g., 1990-91 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years or months (e.g., 1990/91) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
As used in this report, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
The projections and analysis contained in the World Economic Outlook are the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments by the staff of the International Monetary Fund. This review is carried out biannually and draws primarily on the information the Fund staff gathers through its consultations with member countries, as well as on analysis based on econometric models maintained by the staff. The project is coordinated in the Research Department and draws on the specialized contributions of staff members in the Fund’s area departments, together with those of staff in the Exchange and Trade Relations and Fiscal Affairs Departments. The World Economic Outlook has been published annually since 1980 and biannually since 1984.
An earlier version of the material in this report was the basis for a discussion of the world economic outlook by the Fund’s Executive Board on September 23 and 25, 1991. The current version has benefited from comments by Executive Directors. However, the descriptions of developments and policies, as well as the projections for individual countries, are those of the Fund staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.