- International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
- Published Date:
- February 1995
World Economic Outlook, May 1994
A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
© 1994 International Monetary Fund
World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
World economic outlook: a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund.—1980- —Washington. D.C.: The Fund, 1980-
v.; 28 cm.—(1981-84: Occasional paper/International Monetary Fund ISSN 0251-6365)
Has occasional updates, 1984-
ISSN 0258-7440 = World economic and financial surveys
ISSN 0256-6877 = World economic outlook (Washington)
1. Economic history—1971- —Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund)
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Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook. It has been assumed that average real effective exchange rates will remain constant at their March 1-24, 1994 levels except for the bilateral rates among the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) currencies, which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms; that “established” policies of national authorities will be maintained; that the average price of oil will be $13.76 a barrel in 1994, $14.57 a barrel in 1995, and remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; and that the six-month U.S. dollar London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) will average 4.2 percent in 1994 and 5.1 percent in 1995. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available on April 11, 1994.
The following conventions have been used throughout the World Economic Outlook:
… to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;
— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown;
– between years or months (for example, 1992-93 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years (for example, 1992/93) to indicate a fiscal or financial year;
“billion” means a thousand million, and “trillion” means a thousand billion;
“basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point);
minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
* * *
As used in this report, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
The projections and analysis contained in the World Economic Outlook are an integral element of the IMF’s ongoing surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries and of the global economic system. The IMF has published the World Economic Outlook annually from 1980 through 1983 and biannually since 1984.
The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on the information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries. These consultations are carried out in particular by the IMF’s area departments together with the Policy Development and Review and Fiscal Affairs Departments.
The country projections are prepared by the IMF’s area departments on the basis of internationally consistent assumptions about world activity, exchange rates, and conditions in international financial and commodity markets. For approximately 50 of the largest economies—accounting for 90 percent of world output—the projections are updated for each World Economic Outlook exercise. For smaller countries, the estimates are based on the projections prepared at the time of the IMF’s regular Article IV consultations with member countries or in connection with the use of IMF resources; for these countries, the estimates used in the World Economic Outlook are updated incrementally to reflect changes in global economic conditions.
The analysis in the World Economic Outlook draws extensively on the ongoing work of the IMF’s area and specialized departments, and is coordinated in the Research Department under the general direction of Michael Mussa, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. The World Economic Outlook project is directed by Flemming Larsen, Senior Advisor in the Research Department, together with David T. Coe, Chief of the World Economic Studies Division.
Other contributors to the current issue include Garry J. Schinasi, Staffan Gorne, Robert P. Ford, Johan Baras, Monica Hargraves, Robert A. Feldman, Alexander Hoffmaister, Mahmood Pradhan, Hossein Samiei, Bas Bakker, Christopher Towe, Steven Symansky, Manmohan Kumar, Jean Clément, Adrienne Cheasty, Carlos A. Végh, Andrew Berg, and Jack Bame. The authors of the annexes are indicated in each case. The Fiscal Analysis Division of the Fiscal Affairs Department computed the structural budget and fiscal impulse measures. Anthony G. Turner, Sungcha Hong Cha, Toh Kuan, and Aarne Dimanlig provided research assistance. Cathy Wright. Shamim Kassam, Allen Cobler. Nicholas Dopuch, Gretchen Gallik, Yasoma Liyanarachchi, Steven Parker, and Prem Pillai processed the data and managed the computer systems. Susan Duff, Margarita Lorenz, and Nora Mori-Whitehouse were responsible for word processing. James McEuen of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication, and Alicia Etehebarne-Bourdin assisted with composition.
The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the World Economic Outlook on April 6 and 8, 1994. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.