- International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
- Published Date:
- January 1992
© 1993 International Monetary Fund
World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
World economic outlook: a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund.—1980– —Washington, D.C.: The Fund, 1980–
v.; 28 cm.—(1981–84: Occasional paper/International Monetary Fund ISSN 0251-6365)
Has occasional updates, 1984–
ISSN 0258-7440 = World economic and financial surveys
ISSN 0256-6877 = World economic outlook (Washington)
1. Economic history—1971– —Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund)
AACR 2 MARC-S
Library of Congress 8507
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Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in this report. It has been assumed that average real effective exchange rates will remain constant at their October 12–23, 1992 levels except for the bilateral rates among the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) currencies, which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms; that “present” policies of national authorities will be maintained; that the average price of oil will be $18.42 a barrel in 1992, $18.11 a barrel in 1993, and will remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; and that the six-month U.S. dollar London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) will average 3¾ percent in 1992 and 4 percent in 1993. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections themselves are based on statistical information available on December 14, 1992.
The following conventions have been used throughout the report:
… to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;
— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown;
– between years or months (for example, 1991–92 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years or months (for example, 1991/92) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
As used in this report, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
The projections and analysis contained in the World Economic Outlook are an integral element of the IMF’s ongoing surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries and of the global economic system. The IMF has published the World Economic Outlook annually from 1980 through 1983 and biannually since 1984.
This Interim Assessment of the World Economic Outlook represents a special update carried out in November–December 1992 to evaluate prospects and policies following an unexpected weakening of activity in many key economies and a period of considerable turmoil in foreign exchange markets. The focus of the Interim Assessment is primarily on the major industrial countries. The implications for the rest of the world, however, are touched on when these are significant. A more complete analysis of the outlook for the developing countries and for the former centrally planned economies will be presented in the next regular edition of the World Economic Outlook, to be published in May 1993.
The survey of prospects and policies is the product of an interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on the information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries. These consultations are carried out, in particular, by the IMF’s area departments together with the Policy Development and Review and Fiscal Affairs Departments.
The country projections are prepared by the IMF’s area departments on the basis of internationally consistent assumptions about world activity, exchange rates, and conditions in international financial and commodity markets. For approximately 30 of the largest economies—accounting for 85 percent of world output—the projections were updated for the Interim Assessment. For the remaining countries, the projections in the October 1992 World Economic Outlook were updated incrementally to reflect changes in global economic conditions.
The analysis in the World Economic Outlook draws extensively on the ongoing work of the IMF’s area and specialized departments and is coordinated in the Research Department under the general direction of Michael Mussa, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. The World Economic Outlook project is directed by Flemming Larsen, Assistant Director in the Research Department, together with David T. Coe, Chief of the World Economic Studies Division.
Other contributors to the current issue include Garry J. Schinasi, Robert P. Ford, Manmohan S. Kumar, and Robert A. Feldman. Peter B. Clark and Steven Symansky generated the alternative scenario supporting the analysis. Sheila Bassett, Anthony G. Turner, Sungcha Hong Cha, and Toh Kuan provided research assistance. Cathy Wright, Allen Cobler, Nicholas Dopuch, Steven Parker, Prem Pillai, and Celia Winkler processed the data and managed the computer systems. Susan Duff, Margarita Lorenz-Santin, and Nora Mori-Whitehouse were responsible for word processing. James McEuen of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication, and Alicia Etchebarne-Bourdin provided typesetting assistance.
The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the Interim Assessment of the World Economic Outlook on December 16, 1992. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.