Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
October 2010
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    Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, September 2010

    The following remarks by the Acting Chair were made at the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion of the World Economic Outlook on September 20, 2010.

    Executive Directors observed that the global economic recovery is proceeding broadly as projected, despite disturbances in financial markets. The recovery is losing momentum temporarily during the second half of 2010 and will likely remain weak in the first half of 2011, as extraordinary policy stimulus is gradually withdrawn. Directors welcomed signs that financial conditions have begun to normalize, aided by policy coordination and announcements of a front-loading of fiscal adjustment in Europe. A more robust, self-sustaining global recovery will require progress in achieving both internal and global demand rebalancing, sup-ported by healthy financial systems.

    Directors noted that the observed asymmetry in growth performances will likely persist. In most advanced and a few emerging market economies, recoveries are proceeding at a sluggish pace, and large internal adjustments remain needed to achieve internal rebalancing from stimulus-led to private-sector-led growth. On the other hand, growth in many emerging market and developing economies continues to be vigorous, on the back of improved macroeconomic policy frameworks and a stronger financial footing. Downside risks to near-term global growth remain elevated and concentrated in advanced economies. These emanate from heightened uncertainty in financial markets, fragile real estate markets, continued household deleveraging, and persistently high unemployment. However, the probability of a sharp global slowdown, including stagnation or contraction in advanced economies, appears low.

    Directors agreed that fiscal consolidation is a top priority in countries with relatively high public debt. They highlighted the urgency of adopting credible strategies for medium-term consolidation and debt stabilization, including through legislation where necessary. At the same time, policymakers should stand ready to act if global growth threatens to slow appreciably more than expected. In this regard, consideration could be given to postponing consolidation in countries with fiscal room and credibility to do so. In all but the most vulnerable countries, automatic stabilizers should be allowed to operate. Directors stressed that medium-term consolidation plans should be based on realistic growth projections and include reforms to limit rapidly escalating spending programs such as pension entitlements and public health care and tax incentives to boost the supply potential and discourage debt.

    In light of subdued inflation pressures, Directors generally considered that monetary policy in most advanced economies should remain highly accommodative, including through unconventional measures if needed, and should be the first line of defense against any larger-than-projected weakening of activity as fiscal stimulus is being unwound. In emerging market economies with rising inflation or asset price pressures, monetary tightening has been broadly appropriate. For all economies, the implications of fiscal consolidation and developments in financial and asset markets for inflation would also need to be taken into account when setting monetary policy.

    Directors underscored the urgent need for restoring financial sector health and making progress in regulatory reforms in a coordinated manner, especially among advanced economies. To enable an early exit from fiscal support as well as address legacy problems, priorities include restructuring and resolving weak financial institutions; implementing measures to shore up bank capital adequacy, liquidity, and stability of funding sources; and improving coordination of supervision to avoid rapid cross-border amplification of shocks. Further advancement toward building a stronger financial regulatory framework is crucial to underpin market confidence and enhance global financial stability.

    Directors emphasized that medium-term growth prospects depend on progress in implementing structural policies to give forceful impetus to global demand rebalancing. In this regard, many emerging market economies would need to further reorient toward domestic demand, not only because import recovery in advanced economies will likely trail behind precrisis trends, but also to achieve balanced growth that addresses their own consumption and investment needs. For economies with excessive external surpluses, this would entail allowing further exchange rate flexibility and appreciation in response to sustained capital inflows, while safeguarding financial stability with macroprudential or other targeted measures. These measures should be complemented by structural reforms aimed at enhancing social safety nets and shifting toward optimal saving-investment patterns. Similarly, measures to boost net exports would be crucial for economies with excessive current account deficits. Continued fiscal adjustment and financial sector reforms that discourage excessive spending are also key.

    Directors noted that structural policies that strengthen growth over the medium term would help support the required normalization of macroeconomic policies in advanced economies. Labor market policies, coupled with complementary product and services market reforms, should aim to promote competition and enhance growth and job creation, and with sufficient support for the unemployed.

    Directors underscored the critical importance of continued policy effort and coordination at both the regional and global levels—as demonstrated during the global crisis and more recently during the European sovereign debt market turmoil. While policy requirements now differ considerably across countries, it is essential that countries continue to work together toward the common goal of achieving strong, sustained, and balanced growth over the medium term. Directors also emphasized the need to avoid negative spillovers as well as trade and investment protectionism.

    Statistical Appendix

    The Statistical Appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises five sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables. The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2010–11 and the medium-term scenario for 2012–15 are summarized in the first section. The second section presents a brief description of changes to the database and statistical tables. The third section provides a general description of the data and of the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the fourth section.

    The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been com-piled on the basis of information available through late September 2010. The figures for 2010 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; because they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

    Assumptions

    Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the period August 4–September 1, 2010. For 2010 and 2011, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.516 and 1.520, U.S. dollar/euro conversion rates of 1.308 and 1.284, and yen/U.S. dollar conversion rates of 88.5 and 84.2, respectively.

    It is assumed that the price of oil will average $76.20 a barrel in 2010 and $78.75 a barrel in 2011.

    Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected economies are described in Box A1.

    With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.6 percent in 2010 and 0.8 percent in 2011, that three-month euro deposits will average 0.8 percent in 2010 and 1.0 percent in 2011, and that six-month yen deposits will average 0.6 percent in 2010 and 0.4 percent in 2011.

    With respect to introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998, the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member states adopting the euro are as follows.

    1 euro=13.7603Austrian schillings
    =40.3399Belgian francs
    =0.585274Cyprus pound1
    =1.95583Deutsche mark
    =5.94573Finnish markkaa
    =6.55957French francs
    =340.750Greek drachma2
    =0.787564Irish pound
    =1,936.27Italian lire
    =40.3399Luxembourg francs
    =0.42930Maltese lira3
    =2.20371Netherlands guilders
    =200.482Portuguese escudos
    =30.1260Slovak koruna4
    =239.640Slovenian tolars5
    =166.386Spanish pesetas

    Established on January 1, 2008.

    Established on January 1, 2001.

    Established on January 1, 2008.

    Established on January 1, 2009.

    Established on January 1, 2007.

    Box A1.Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies

    Fiscal Policy Assumptions

    The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. In cases where the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise. Specific assumptions used in some of the advanced economies follow (see also Tables B5, B6, B7, and B9 in the statistical Appendix for data on fiscal net lending/borrowing and structural balances).1

    Argentina: The 2010 forecasts are based on the 2009 outturn and IMF staff assumptions. For the outer years, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.

    Australia: Fiscal projections are based on the 2010–11 budget, 2010 economic statement, 2010 pre-election economic and fiscal outlook, and IMF staff projections.

    Austria: Fiscal projections for 2010 are based on the authorities’ budget, adjusted for differences in the IMF staff’s macro framework. For 2011 the IMF staff includes the central government’s spending ceilings (approved by Parliament) and the health insurance package savings for all years (2011–15).

    Belgium: Projections for 2010 are IMF staff estimates based on the 2010 budgets approved by the federal, regional, and community parliaments and further strengthened by the Intergovernmental Agreement 2009–10. Projections for the outer years are IMF staff estimates, assuming unchanged policies.

    Brazil: The 2010 forecasts are based on the budget law and IMF staff assumptions. For the outer years, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies, with a further increase in public investment in line with the authorities’ intentions.

    Canada: Projections use the baseline forecasts in the latest Budget 2010—Leading the Way on Jobs and Growth. The IMF staff makes some adjustments to this forecast for differences in macroeconomic projections. The IMF staff forecast also incorporates the most recent data releases from Finance Canada and Statistics Canada, including federal, provincial, and territorial budgetary out-turns through the end of 2010:Q1.

    China: For 2010–11, the government is assumed to continue and complete the stimulus program it announced in late 2008, although the lack of details published on this package complicates IMF staff analysis. Specifically, the IMF staff assumes the stimulus is not withdrawn in 2010, and so there is no significant fiscal impulse. Stimulus is withdrawn in 2011, resulting in a negative fiscal impulse of about 1 percent of GDP (reflecting both higher revenue and lower spending).

    Denmark: Projections for 2010–11 are aligned with the latest official budget estimates and the underlying economic projections, adjusted where appropriate for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. For 2012–15, the projections incorporate key features of the medium-term fiscal plan as embodied in the authorities’ 2009 Convergence Program submitted to the European Union.

    France: Projections for 2010 are based on the 2010 budget and the latest Stability Program and are adjusted for differences in macroeconomic assumptions. Projections for the outer years incorporate the IMF staff’s assessment of current policies and implementation of announced adjustment measures.

    Germany: Projections for 2010 are based on the 2010 budget, adjusted for the differences in the IMF staff’s macro framework and estimates of the implementation of the fiscal stimulus measures. The IMF staff’s projections for 2011 and beyond reflect the authorities’ adopted core federal government budget plan, adjusted for the differences in the IMF staff’s macro framework and assumptions on fiscal developments in state and local governments, the social insurance system, and special funds.

    Greece: Macroeconomic and fiscal projections for 2010 and the medium term are consistent with the policies agreed to between IMF staff and the authorities in the context of the Stand-By Arrangement. Fiscal projections assume a strong front-loaded fiscal adjustment in 2010, followed by further measures in 2011–13. Growth is expected to bottom out in late 2010 and gradually rebound after that, coming into positive territory in 2012.

    Hong Kong SAR: Projections are based on the authorities’ medium-term fiscal projections.

    Hungary: The 2010 forecast is based on the implementation of the budget and the macro framework discussed during the Sixth Review of the Stand-By Arrangement. The IMF staff assumes measures will be undertaken in addition to those outlined by the authorities for 2011–15: in 2011, 1¾ percent of GDP, to achieve a fiscal target of 2.8 percent of GDP and in the medium term to ensure fiscal sustainability.

    India: Historical data are based on budgetary execution data. Projections are based on available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with some adjustments for the IMF staff’s assumptions. Projections are based on the budget itself as well as the semiannual budget review. Sub-national data are incorporated with a lag of up to two years; general government data are thus finalized long after central government data. IMF presentation differs from Indian national accounts data, particularly regarding subsidies and certain loans.

    Indonesia: The 2009 outturn for the overall fiscal deficit was 1.6 percent of estimated GDP. The outturn was lower than the revised budget deficit, largely as a result of lower interest payments and underspending on personnel, material goods, and other spending. About 85 percent of the announced 2009 stimulus measures were implemented (1.1 percent of GDP), with revenue measures comprising nearly three-quarters of the total package. The 2010 revised budget draft envisages a budget deficit higher than projected by the IMF staff. The IMF staff builds in a cushion for a track record of underexecution, the 2010 deficit is likely to be below the announced deficit target. The IMF staff’s overall deficit projection is about 1.5 percent of GDP.

    Ireland: Fiscal projections for 2010 are based on the 2010 budget, adjusted for financial sector support and differences in macroeconomic assumptions between the IMF staff and the authorities. So far during 2010, the government has injected about €22 billion in capital to banks. The Central Statistics Office of Ireland has determined that €8.3 billion of the €22 billion should be reported as expenditure in the budget. The statistical treatment of the remaining amount is to be determined at a later stage. On this basis, the IMF staff projections include the €8.3 billion in the 2010 deficit. For 2011–12, IMF staff projections incorporate most of the adjustment efforts announced by the authorities in their Stability Program Update, although two-thirds of these measures have not been specified or agreed to by the government. For the remainder of the projection period and in the absence of specifically identified measures, the projections do not incorporate further budgetary adjustments. The authorities have announced their intention to further lower the deficit below 3 percent of GDP by 2014 and have identified broad areas in which to target savings but have yet to specify and put in place measures to realize these savings.

    Italy: The fiscal projections incorporate the impact of the 2010 budget law and fiscal adjustment measures for 2010–13 as approved by the government in May 2010 and modified during parliamentary approval during June–July. The IMF staff projections are based on the authorities’ estimates of the policy scenario, including the above medium-term fiscal consolidation package and adjusted mainly for differences in the macroeconomic assumptions and for less optimistic assumptions concerning the impact of revenue administration measures (to combat tax evasion). After 2013, a constant structural primary balance (net of one-time items) is assumed.

    Japan: The 2010 projections assume that fiscal plans will be implemented as announced by the government. The medium-term projections typically assume that expenditure and revenue of the general government are adjusted in line with current underlying demographic and economic trends (excluding fiscal stimulus).

    Korea: The fiscal projections assume that fiscal policies will be implemented in 2010 as announced by the government. The 2010 budget scales back stimulus measures relative to 2009, implying a negative fiscal impulse estimated at 2 percent of GDP. Expenditure numbers for 2010 correspond to the expenditure numbers presented in the government’s budget proposal. Revenue projections reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions, adjusted for the estimated costs of tax measures included in the multiyear stimulus package introduced last year and discretionary revenue-raising measures included in the 2010 budget. The medium-term projections assume that the government will continue with its consolidation plans and balance the budget (excluding social security funds) in 2014.

    Mexico: Fiscal projections are based on (1) the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections; (2) the modified balanced budget rule under the Fiscal Responsibility Legislation, including the use of the exceptional clause; and (3) the authorities’ projections for spending, including for pensions and health care, and for wage restraint. For 2010–11, projections take into account departure from the balanced budget target under the exceptional clause of the fiscal framework, which allows for a small deficit reflecting cyclical deterioration in revenues.

    Netherlands: Fiscal projections for the period 2009–11 are based on Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis budget projections, after adjusting for differences in macroeconomic assumptions. For the remainder of the projection period, the projection assumes unchanged policies.

    New Zealand: Fiscal projections are based on the authorities’ 2010 budget and IMF staff estimates. The New Zealand fiscal accounts switched to generally accepted accounting principles beginning in fiscal year 2006/07, with no comparable historical data.

    Portugal: For 2010, fiscal projections are based on the 2010 budget, adjusted for differences between the government’s and the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. For 2011 and beyond, the IMF staff largely incorporates the specific fiscal measures in the medium-term fiscal plan, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.

    Russia: Projections for 2010 are based on the nominal expenditures in the 2010 budget, including the June supplementary budget, and the IMF staff’s revenue projections. Projections for 2011–13 are based on the non-oil deficit in percent of GDP implied by the draft medium-term budget and on the IMF staff’s revenue projections. The IMF staff assumes an unchanged non-oil federal government balance in percent of GDP during 2013–15.

    Saudi Arabia: The authorities systematically underestimate revenues and expenditures in the budget relative to actual outturns. IMF staff projections of oil revenues are based on WEO baseline oil prices discounted by 5 percent, reflecting the higher sulfur content in Saudi crude oil. Regarding non-oil revenues, customs receipts are assumed to grow in line with imports, investment income in line with the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR), and fees and charges as a function of non-oil GDP. On the expenditure side, wages are assumed to rise above the natural rate of increase, reflecting a salary increase of 15 percent distributed during 2008–10, and goods and services are projected to grow in line with inflation over the medium term. In 2010 and 2013, 13th-month pay is awarded based on the lunar calendar. Interest payments are projected to decline in line with the authorities’ policy of repaying public debt. Capital spending in 2010 is projected to be higher than in the budget by about 32 percent and in line with the authorities’ announcement of $400 billion in spending over the medium term. The pace of spending is projected to slow over the medium term, leading to a tightening of the fiscal stance.

    Singapore: For fiscal year 2010/11, projections are based on budget numbers. For the remainder of the projection period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.

    South Africa: Fiscal projections are based on the authorities’ 2010 intentions as stated in the budget review published February 17, 2010, and on discussions conducted during the June Article IV consultation.

    Spain: For 2010, fiscal projections incorporate the impact of measures in the 2010 budget, the latest Stability Program, and a May fiscal package. For 2011 and beyond, fiscal projections are based on the authorities’ medium-term plan, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.

    Sweden: Fiscal projections for 2010 are in line with the authorities’ projections. The impact of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the Organization for economic Cooperation and Development’s latest semi-elasticity.

    Switzerland: Projections for 2009–15 are based on IMF staff calculations, which incorporate measures to restore balance in the federal accounts and strengthen social security finances.

    Turkey: Fiscal projections assume the authorities adhere to their budget target for 2010 and to their known policy intentions as stated in the Medium-Term Program unveiled in September 2009.

    United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the authorities’ 2010 budget, announced in June 2010. These projections incorporate the announced medium-term consolidation plans from 2010 onward. The projections are adjusted for differences in forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables.

    United States: Fiscal projections are based on policies outlined in the Administration’s Mid-Session Budget Review for fiscal year 2011. The authorities’ federal projections are adjusted by the IMF staff for differences in the budget forecasts of key macroeconomic and financial variables and are converted to a general government basis. The estimates of fiscal deficit are adjusted for one-off items (the cost of financial sector support).

    Monetary Policy Assumptions

    Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: official interest rates will increase when economic indicators suggest that inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range, and they will decrease when indicators suggest that prospective inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that prospective output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant. On this basis, the LIBOR on six-month U.S. dollar deposits is assumed to average 0.6 percent in 2010 and 0.8 percent in 2011 (see Table 1.1). The rate on three-month euro deposits is assumed to average 0.8 percent in 2010 and 1.0 percent in 2011. The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.6 percent in 2010 and 0.4 percent in 2011.

    1 The output gap is actual minus potential output, as a percent of potential output. Structural balances are expressed as a percent of potential output. The structural budget balance is the budgetary position that would be observed if the level of actual output coincided with potential output. Changes in the structural budget balance consequently include effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other noncyclical fluctuations in the budget balance. The computations of structural budget balances are based on IMF staff estimates of potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities (see the October 1993 World Economic Outlook, Annex I). Net debt is defined as gross debt minus financial assets of the general government, which include assets held by the social security insurance system. Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.

    See Box 5.4 of the October 1998 World Economic Outlook for details on how the conversion rates were established.

    What’s New

    • Starting with the October 2010 World Economic Outlook, the emerging and developing economies’ Western Hemisphere region has been renamed Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), the country group composites will be calculated only when 90 percent or more of the weighted data are represented, and data for Kosovo are included in the emerging and developing economies aggregates.

    • Country weights calculated as nominal GDP valued at purchasing-power-parity (PPP) exchange rates as a share of total world GDP have been updated to reflect revisions to countries’ historical GDP data and projections.

    Data and Conventions

    Data and projections for 183 economies form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook (the WEO database). The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

    Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the compilation of national statistics, including analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The WEO database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

    Most countries’ macroeconomic data presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 1993 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA). The IMF’s sector statistical standards—the Balance of Payments Manual, Fifth Edition (BPM5), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM 2000), and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001)—have all been aligned with the 1993 SNA. These standards reflect the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions, financial sector stability, and public sector fiscal positions. The process of adapting country data to the new standards begins in earnest when the manuals are released. However, full concordance with the manuals is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data; hence, the World Economic Outlook estimates are only partially adapted to these manuals. Nonetheless, for many countries the impact of conversion to the updated standards will be small on major balances and aggregates. Many other countries have partially adopted the latest standards and will continue implementation over a period of years.

    Consistent with the recommendations of the 1993 SNA, several countries have phased out their traditional fixed-base-year method of calculating real macroeconomic variable levels and growth by switching to a chain-weighted method of computing aggregate growth. The chain-weighted method frequently updates the weights of price and volume indicators. It allows countries to measure GDP growth more accurately by reducing or eliminating the downward biases in volume series built on index numbers that average volume components using weights from a year in the moderately distant past. Currently, macroeconomic price and volume data for the following economies are based on chain-weighted methodology: Albania, Algeria, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, the euro area, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong SAR, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mauritania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

    Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless noted otherwise, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.1 Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging and developing economies group except inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply.

    • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.

    • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at PPP as a share of total world or group GDP.2

    • Composites for data relating to the domestic economy for the euro area (16 member countries throughout the entire period unless noted other-wise) are aggregates of national source data using GDP weights. Annual data are not adjusted for calendar-day effects. For data prior to 1999, data aggregations apply 1995 European currency unit exchange rates.

    • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

    • Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

    • Unless noted otherwise, group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.

    Classification of Countries

    Summary of the Country Classification

    The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies, and emerging and developing economies.3 This classification is not based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, and it has evolved over time. The objective is to facilitate analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful method for organizing data. Table A provides an overview of the country classification, showing the number of countries in each group by region and summarizing some key indicators of their relative size (GDP valued by PPP, total exports of goods and services, and population).

    Some countries remain outside the country classification and therefore are not included in the analysis. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are not IMF members, and their economies therefore are not monitored by the IMF. San Marino is omitted from the group of advanced economies for lack of a fully developed database. Likewise, the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, Somalia, and Tuvalu are omitted from the emerging and developing economies group composites because of data limitations.

    General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

    Advanced Economies

    The 33 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The seven largest in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G7). The 16 members of the euro area and the four newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables for the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

    Table A.Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20091(Percent of total for group or world)
    GDPExports of Goods

    and Services
    Population
    Number of

    Economies
    Advanced

    Economies
    WorldAdvanced

    Economies
    WorldAdvanced

    Economies
    World
    Advanced Economies33100.053.8100.065.5100.015.1
    United States38.020.415.210.030.44.6
    Euro Area1628.115.143.228.332.24.9
    Germany7.54.013.18.68.11.2
    France5.63.06.03.96.20.9
    Italy4.62.54.93.25.90.9
    Spain3.61.93.42.24.50.7
    Japan11.16.06.54.312.61.9
    United Kingdom5.73.15.93.86.10.9
    Canada3.41.83.72.43.30.5
    Other Advanced Economies1313.87.425.516.715.42.3
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies775.940.855.336.272.610.9
    Newly Industrialized Asian Economies47.03.813.99.18.31.2
    Emerging and

    Developing

    Economies
    WorldEmerging and

    Developing

    Economies
    WorldEmerging and

    Developing

    Economies
    World
    Emerging and Developing Economies150100.046.2100.034.5100.084.9
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe157.63.510.73.73.12.6
    Commonwealth of Independent States2139.24.39.73.44.94.2
    Russia6.53.06.42.22.52.1
    Developing Asia2648.922.642.214.561.952.6
    China27.212.624.58.523.419.9
    India10.95.14.81.721.017.8
    Excluding China and India2410.75.012.84.417.514.9
    Latin America and the Caribbean3218.58.514.75.19.68.2
    Brazil6.22.93.31.13.42.8
    Mexico4.52.14.51.61.91.6
    Middle East and North Africa2010.64.917.36.07.06.0
    Sub-Saharan Africa445.22.45.41.913.411.4
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa422.61.22.81.09.98.4
    Analytical Groups
    By Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel2718.58.626.59.111.49.7
    Nonfuel12381.537.673.525.488.675.3
    Of Which, Primary Products202.31.12.50.94.63.9
    By External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Economies12151.323.744.315.361.752.4
    Of Which, Official Financing353.11.42.00.711.29.5
    Net Debtor Economies by Debt-Servicing Experience
    Countries with Arrears and/or Rescheduling during 2004–08435.02.34.41.59.37.9
    Other Net Debtor Economies7846.221.439.913.852.444.5
    Other Groups
    Heavily Indebted Poor Countries392.11.01.90.710.38.8

    The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity valuation of countries’ GDP. The number of countries comprising each group reflects those for which data are included in the group aggregates.

    Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup
    Major

    Currency

    Areas
    Other Subgroups
    Euro AreaNewly Industrialized

    Asian Economies
    Major Advanced

    Economies
    Other Advanced Economies
    United StatesAustriaItalyHong Kong SAR1CanadaAustraliaNew Zealand
    Euro AreaBelgiumLuxembourgKoreaFranceCzech RepublicNorway
    JapanCyprusMaltaSingaporeGermanyDenmarkSingapore
    FinlandNetherlandsTaiwan Province of ChinaItalyHong Kong SAR1Sweden
    FrancePortugalJapanIcelandSwitzerland
    GermanySlovak RepublicUnited KingdomIsraelTaiwan Province of China
    GreeceSloveniaUnited StatesKorea
    IrelandSpain

    On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

    Table C lists the member countries of the European Union, not all of which are classified as advanced economies in the World Economic Outlook.

    Table C.European Union
    AustriaFinlandLatviaRomania
    BelgiumFranceLithuaniaSlovak Republic
    BulgariaGermanyLuxembourgSlovenia
    CyprusGreeceMaltaSpain
    Czech RepublicHungaryNetherlandsSweden
    DenmarkIrelandPolandUnited Kingdom
    EstoniaItalyPortugal

    Emerging and Developing Economies

    The group of emerging and developing economies (150 countries) includes all those that are not classified as advanced economies.

    The regional breakdowns of emerging and developing economies are central and eastern Europe (CEE), Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), developing Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), Middle East and north Africa (MENA), and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

    Emerging and developing economies are also classified according to analytical criteria. The analytical criteria reflect the composition of countries’ export earnings and other income from abroad; a distinction between net creditor and net debtor countries; and, for the net debtor countries, financial criteria based on external financing sources and experience with external debt servicing. The detailed composition of emerging and developing economies in the regional and analytical groups is shown in Tables D and E.

    Table D.Emerging and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel NonfuelPrimary Products
    Commonwealth of Independent StatesAzerbaijanMongolia
    KazakhstanUzbekistan
    Russia
    Turkmenistan
    Developing AsiaBrunei DarussalamPapua New Guinea
    Timor-LesteSolomon Islands
    Latin America and the CaribbeanEcuadorChile
    Trinidad and TobagoGuyana
    VenezuelaPeru
    Suriname
    Middle East and North AfricaAlgeriaMauritania
    Bahrain
    Iran, Islamic Republic of
    Iraq
    Kuwait
    Libya
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Sudan
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen, Republic of
    Sub-Saharan AfricaAngolaBurkina Faso
    ChadBurundi
    Congo, Republic ofCongo, Democratic Republic of
    Equatorial GuineaGuinea
    GabonGuinea-Bissau
    NigeriaMalawi
    Mali
    Mozambique
    Sierra Leone
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    Note: Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.
    Table E.Emerging and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
    Net External PositionHeavily Indebted Poor Countries2
    Net CreditorNet Debtor1
    Central and Eastern Europe
    Albania*
    Bosnia and Herzegovina*
    Bulgaria*
    Croatia*
    Estonia*
    Hungary*
    Kosovo*
    Latvia*
    Lithuania*
    Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of*
    Montenegro*
    Poland*
    Romania*
    Serbia*
    Turkey*
    Commonwealth of Independent States3
    Armenia*
    Azerbaijan*
    Belarus*
    Georgia*
    Kazakhstan*
    Kyrgyz Republic*
    Moldova*
    Mongolia
    Russia*
    Tajikistan*
    Turkmenistan*
    Ukraine*
    Uzbekistan*
    Developing Asia
    Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of
    Bangladesh
    Bhutan
    Brunei Darussalam*
    Cambodia*
    China*
    Fiji*
    India*
    Indonesia*
    Kiribati*
    Lao People’s Democratic Republic*
    Malaysia*
    Maldives*
    Myanmar*
    Nepal
    Pakistan*
    Papua New Guinea*
    Philippines*
    Samoa
    Solomon Islands
    Sri Lanka
    Thailand*
    Timor-Leste*
    Tonga*
    Vanuatu*
    Vietnam*
    Latin America and the Caribbean
    Antigua and Barbuda*
    Argentina*
    Bahamas, The*
    Barbados*
    Belize*
    Bolivia*
    Brazil*
    Chile*
    Colombia*
    Costa Rica*
    Dominica*
    Dominican Republic*
    Ecuador*
    El Salvador*
    Grenada*
    Guatemala*
    Guyana
    Haiti
    Honduras*
    Jamaica
    Mexico*
    Nicaragua*
    Panama*
    Paraguay*
    Peru*
    St. Kitts and Nevis*
    St. Lucia*
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines
    Suriname
    Trinidad and Tobago*
    Uruguay*
    Venezuela*
    Middle East and North Africa
    Algeria*
    Bahrain*
    Djibouti*
    Egypt*
    Iran, Islamic Republic of*
    Iraq*
    Jordan*
    Kuwait*
    Lebanon*
    Libya*
    Mauritania*
    Morocco*
    Oman*
    Qatar*
    Saudi Arabia*
    Sudan**
    Syrian Arab Republic
    Tunisia*
    United Arab Emirates*
    Yemen, Republic of*
    Sub-Saharan Africa
    Angola*
    Benin*
    Botswana*
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cameroon*
    Cape Verde*
    Central African Republic
    Chad**
    Comoros*
    Congo, Democratic Republic of
    Congo, Republic of
    Côte d’Ivoire**
    Equatorial Guinea*
    Eritrea*
    Ethiopia
    Gabon*
    Gambia, The
    Ghana
    Guinea**
    Guinea-Bissau**
    Kenya
    Lesotho*
    Liberia*
    Madagascar*
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritius*
    Mozambique
    Namibia*
    Niger*
    Nigeria*
    Rwanda
    São Tomé and Prãncipe*
    Senegal*
    Seychelles*
    Sierra Leone
    South Africa*
    Swaziland*
    Tanzania
    Togo*
    Uganda*
    Zambia*
    Zimbabwe

    Dot instead of star indicates that the net debtor’s main external finance source is official financing.

    Dot instead of star indicates that the country has reached the completion point.

    Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    The analytical criterion, by source of export earnings, distinguishes between categories: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Countries are categorized into one of these groups when their main source of export earnings exceeds 50 percent of total exports on average between 2004 and 2008.

    The financial criteria focus on net creditor countries, net debtor countries, and heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs). Countries are categorized as net debtors when their current account balance accumulations from 1972 (or earliest data available) to 2008 are negative. Net debtor countries are further differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: official external financing and experience with debt servicing.4 Countries are placed in the official external financing category when 65 percent or more of their total debt, on average between 2004 and 2008, is financed by official creditors.

    The HIPC group comprises the countries that are or have been considered by the IMF and the World Bank for participation in their debt initiative known as the HIPC Initiative, which aims to reduce the external debt burdens of all the eligible HIPCs to a “sustainable” level in a reasonably short period of time.5 Many of these countries have already benefited from debt relief and graduated from the initiative.

    List of Tables

    Medium-term Baseline Scenario

    Table A1.Summary of World Output1(Annual percent change)
    AverageProjections
    1992–200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112015
    World3.22.93.64.94.65.25.32.8–0.64.84.24.6
    Advanced Economies2.81.71.93.22.73.02.70.2–3.22.72.22.4
    United States3.51.82.53.63.12.71.90.0–2.62.62.32.6
    Euro Area2.10.90.82.21.73.02.90.5–4.11.71.51.7
    Japan0.90.31.42.71.92.02.4–1.2–5.22.81.51.7
    Other Advanced Economies23.73.32.64.03.53.94.01.0–2.34.23.13.2
    Emerging and Developing Economies3.84.86.27.57.38.28.76.02.57.16.46.7
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe2.84.44.87.35.96.55.53.0–3.63.73.14.1
    Commonwealth of Independent States3–3.15.27.78.16.78.89.05.3–6.54.34.64.3
    Developing Asia7.36.98.28.69.510.411.47.76.99.48.48.5
    Latin America and the Caribbean3.00.52.16.04.75.65.74.3–1.75.74.03.9
    Middle East and North Africa3.43.86.95.85.35.86.05.02.04.15.14.9
    Sub-Saharan Africa2.87.45.07.26.36.47.05.52.65.05.55.4
    Memorandum
    European Union2.31.41.62.72.23.53.20.8–4.11.71.72.2
    Analytical Groups
    By Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel0.34.87.07.96.77.47.65.1–1.93.94.74.3
    Nonfuel4.84.86.17.57.48.49.06.23.57.86.87.1
    Of Which, Primary Products3.73.84.35.66.26.16.66.71.56.66.15.6
    By External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Economies3.33.24.66.65.96.76.74.60.66.45.25.6
    Of Which, Official Financing3.54.04.16.06.36.46.35.75.35.56.46.5
    Net Debtor Economies by Debt-Servicing Experience
    Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling During 2004–082.9–0.66.47.98.07.87.86.22.15.74.74.4
    Memorandum
    Median Growth Rate
    Advanced Economies3.21.92.03.93.23.63.70.9–2.82.02.22.6
    Emerging and developing economies3.73.94.85.55.45.86.25.11.74.04.54.6
    Output Per Capita
    Advanced Economies2.11.11.32.51.92.32.0–0.5–3.82.11.51.8
    Emerging and Developing Economies2.43.65.06.36.17.17.64.91.46.15.45.7
    World Growth Rate Based on Market Exchange2.92.02.74.03.54.03.91.6–2.03.73.33.7
    Value of World Output in Billions of U.S. Dollars
    At Market Exchange Rates29,15033,24437,37642,07145,51549,29555,61561,18757,84361,96365,41781,963
    At Purchasing Power Parities35,35846,08748,74152,59156,66761,50566,62269,94770,04174,00478,09299,336

    Real GDP.

    In this table, Other Advanced Economies means advanced economies excluding the United States, Euro Area countries, and Japan.

    Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Table A2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand1(Annual percent change)
    Fourth Quarter2
    AverageProjectionsProjections
    1992–2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120152009:Q42010:Q42011:Q4
    Real GDP
    Advanced Economies2.81.71.93.22.73.02.70.2–3.22.72.22.4–0.42.42.5
    United States3.51.82.53.63.12.71.90.0−2.62.62.32.60.22.22.7
    Euro Area2.10.90.82.21.73.02.90.5−4.11.71.51.7−2.01.91.4
    Germany1.70.0−0.21.20.83.42.71.0−4.73.32.01.3−2.03.91.2
    France2.11.11.12.32.02.42.30.1−2.51.61.62.1−0.51.71.6
    Italy1.60.50.01.50.72.01.5−1.3−5.01.01.01.3−2.81.31.1
    Spain3.02.73.13.33.64.03.60.9−3.7−0.30.72.0−3.00.11.4
    Netherlands3.00.10.32.22.03.43.91.9−3.91.81.71.9−2.42.01.7
    Belgium2.31.40.83.12.02.72.80.8−2.71.61.71.9−0.11.02.8
    Greece2.53.45.94.62.24.54.52.0−2.0−4.0−2.62.7−2.5−4.9−0.2
    Austria2.21.60.82.52.53.63.72.2−3.91.61.61.8−2.11.81.6
    Portugal2.90.7−0.91.60.81.42.40.0−2.61.10.01.2−1.00.30.9
    Finland2.91.82.04.12.94.45.30.9−8.02.42.01.8−5.23.11.3
    Ireland7.46.54.44.66.05.35.6−3.5−7.6−0.32.33.5−5.60.65.7
    Slovak Republic4.64.85.06.78.510.66.2−4.74.14.34.2−3.93.44.8
    Slovenia4.02.84.34.55.86.83.5−7.80.82.42.5−5.62.72.9
    Luxembourg4.44.11.54.45.45.66.50.0−4.13.03.12.61.01.53.4
    Cyprus4.82.11.94.23.94.15.13.6−1.70.41.83.0−2.71.62.3
    Malta3.72.6−0.30.94.03.63.72.6−2.11.71.72.50.4−0.61.8
    Japan0.90.31.42.71.92.02.4−1.2−5.22.81.51.7−1.41.92.1
    United Kingdom2.92.12.83.02.22.82.7−0.1−4.91.72.02.6−2.92.81.6
    Canada3.32.91.93.13.02.82.20.5−2.53.12.72.0−1.13.12.9
    Korea6.07.22.84.64.05.25.12.30.26.14.54.06.14.85.9
    Australia3.83.93.23.63.22.64.82.21.23.03.53.22.62.84.1
    Taiwan Province of China5.35.33.76.24.75.46.00.7−1.99.34.45.08.44.16.6
    Sweden2.32.52.34.23.24.33.3−0.4−5.14.42.63.4−1.55.31.2
    Switzerland1.30.4−0.22.52.63.63.61.9−1.92.91.72.0−0.13.01.3
    Hong Kong SAR3.41.83.08.57.17.06.42.2−2.86.04.74.32.53.78.5
    Czech Republic1.93.64.56.36.86.12.5−4.12.02.23.5−3.22.22.5
    Norway3.61.51.03.92.72.32.70.8−1.40.61.82.0−1.10.92.1
    Singapore6.44.24.69.27.48.68.51.8−1.315.04.54.03.812.57.6
    Denmark2.50.50.42.32.43.41.7−0.9−4.72.02.31.9−2.93.41.6
    Israel5.3−0.61.55.14.95.75.34.20.84.23.83.71.64.92.8
    New Zealand3.34.94.14.43.21.02.8−0.1−1.63.03.22.60.43.63.3
    Iceland3.00.12.47.77.54.66.01.0−6.8−3.03.03.1−8.80.32.2
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies2.61.31.82.92.42.62.1−0.1−3.52.52.02.2−0.82.32.2
    Newly Industrialized Asian
    Economies5.55.83.25.94.85.85.81.8−0.97.84.54.36.15.26.6
    Real Total Domestic Demand Advanced Economies2.91.82.23.22.72.82.3–0.2–3.52.61.92.4–1.32.62.1
    United States3.92.42.84.03.22.61.3−1.1−3.63.02.22.9−0.93.12.5
    Euro Area0.41.41.91.92.92.60.4−3.41.00.91.6−2.62.11.0
    Germany1.5−2.00.6−0.10.02.41.31.2−1.92.51.21.1−2.24.10.9
    France1.91.11.83.12.82.73.30.4−2.41.41.62.1−0.81.61.3
    Italy1.31.30.81.30.92.01.3−1.5−3.80.61.11.2−2.00.81.4
    Spain2.93.23.84.85.15.24.1−0.6−6.0−1.10.02.0−5.0−0.81.7
    Japan0.9−0.40.81.91.71.21.3−1.3−4.01.01.31.5−3.41.01.9
    United Kingdom3.13.22.93.52.12.53.1−0.7−5.42.41.42.1−2.72.91.3
    Canada2.63.04.54.15.04.43.92.5−2.64.92.91.90.04.32.9
    Other Advanced Economies3.84.02.04.63.33.94.61.8−2.55.33.83.62.04.13.7
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies2.71.42.23.02.52.41.7−0.6−3.52.51.92.3−1.62.72.0
    Newly Industrialized Asian
    Economies4.85.00.94.82.94.14.31.8−3.07.04.24.24.34.24.1

    When economies are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size.

    From the fourth quarter of the preceding year.

    Table A3.Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    AveragesProjections
    1992–20012002–112002200320042005200620072008200920102011
    Private Consumer Expenditure
    Advanced Economies3.01.72.32.02.72.72.62.50.2–1.01.61.7
    United States3.91.92.72.83.53.42.92.4–0.3–1.21.52.0
    Euro Area1.00.91.21.61.82.11.70.4–1.10.60.9
    Germany1.90.2–0.80.10.10.31.4–0.20.7–0.20.00.9
    France1.91.82.32.12.42.52.62.50.50.61.31.1
    Italy1.50.50.21.00.71.11.21.1–0.8–1.80.71.2
    Spain2.71.82.82.94.24.23.83.7–0.6–4.20.80.9
    Japan1.30.81.10.41.61.31.51.6–0.7–1.01.60.6
    United Kingdom3.31.53.53.03.12.21.82.20.4–3.30.91.5
    Canada2.83.23.63.03.33.74.24.62.90.43.43.0
    Other Advanced Economies14.23.04.21.83.63.63.54.61.20.43.73.5
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies2.91.52.02.02.62.52.42.00.0–1.11.31.6
    Newly Industrialized Asian Economies5.73.25.90.63.03.93.84.71.00.54.34.1
    Public Consumption
    Advanced Economies1.81.83.42.21.71.31.61.92.32.31.4–0.5
    United States1.31.64.52.21.40.61.01.32.51.91.5−1.2
    Euro Area1.72.41.71.61.62.02.22.32.41.2−0.2
    Germany1.71.31.50.4–0.70.41.01.62.32.92.90.7
    France1.41.71.92.02.21.21.31.51.62.81.50.6
    Italy0.31.02.41.92.21.90.50.90.80.60.2−1.4
    Spain3.03.94.54.86.35.54.65.55.83.2−0.1−1.0
    Japan3.01.32.42.31.91.60.41.50.31.51.4−0.6
    United Kingdom1.31.83.53.43.02.01.41.31.61.22.0−1.0
    Canada0.92.62.53.12.01.43.02.73.93.53.50.0
    Other Advanced Economies3.02.53.32.41.92.03.23.13.03.71.31.2
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies1.61.53.32.11.51.01.01.42.01.91.7−0.7
    Newly Industrialized Asian Economies4.02.83.82.22.42.43.94.03.44.60.21.3
    Gross Fixed Capital Formation
    Advanced Economies3.70.6–1.22.14.54.33.92.2–2.4–12.31.84.4
    United States6.40.1–2.73.16.25.32.5–1.2–4.5–14.82.26.4
    Euro Area0.4–1.51.32.33.25.44.6–0.8–11.3−0.11.6
    Germany1.20.7–6.1–0.3–0.30.98.04.72.5–10.15.93.0
    France2.01.1–1.72.23.34.44.56.00.5–7.1−1.91.7
    Italy1.4–0.33.7–1.22.30.82.91.7–4.0–12.12.22.2
    Spain3.60.13.45.95.17.07.24.5–4.8–16.0−6.8−1.6
    Japan–0.9–1.5–4.9–0.51.43.10.5–1.2–2.6–14.0−0.44.4
    United Kingdom4.00.83.61.15.12.46.47.8–5.0–15.01.03.0
    Canada3.73.41.66.27.89.37.13.51.4–11.75.74.9
    Other Advanced Economies4.03.53.92.76.24.75.76.70.0–5.56.35.2
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies3.70.2–2.21.84.44.23.41.0–2.9–13.42.04.9
    Newly Industrialized Asian Economies4.42.92.62.06.22.23.94.5–2.8–3.79.15.4
    Final Domestic Demand
    Advanced Economies2.91.51.72.02.92.82.72.30.1–2.71.61.8
    United States4.01.61.92.83.63.32.51.5–0.6–3.11.62.1
    Euro Area1.00.71.31.82.12.82.40.5–2.60.60.8
    Germany1.70.5–1.50.1–0.10.42.61.11.4–1.81.81.3
    France1.81.61.42.12.52.62.73.00.7–0.50.71.1
    Italy1.20.41.30.71.41.21.41.2–1.2–3.50.90.9
    Spain3.01.83.24.04.85.24.94.2–0.7–6.0−1.2−0.1
    Japan1.00.4–0.20.51.61.91.11.0–0.9–3.61.21.1
    United Kingdom2.91.53.52.83.42.22.52.9–0.3–4.31.21.1
    Canada2.63.13.03.73.94.44.64.02.8–1.83.92.8
    Other Advanced Economies3.93.03.92.13.93.53.94.91.3–0.43.93.6
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies2.71.31.32.02.72.62.31.7–0.2–2.91.51.7
    Newly Industrialized Asian Economies5.03.14.61.23.73.23.94.70.50.14.74.1
    Stock Building2
    Advanced Economies0.00.00.10.10.3–0.10.10.0–0.3–0.80.90.2
    United States0.00.10.50.10.4–0.10.1–0.2–0.5–0.71.40.1
    Euro Area0.0–0.30.10.2–0.20.10.1–0.1–0.80.50.1
    Germany–0.20.0–0.60.50.0–0.4–0.2–0.1–0.20.10.4−0.1
    France0.1–0.1–0.3–0.30.60.20.00.4–0.3–1.90.60.5
    Italy0.00.00.00.1–0.1–0.30.50.1–0.3–0.30.20.2
    Spain–0.10.00.0–0.10.0–0.10.3–0.10.10.00.00.1
    Japan0.00.0–0.30.20.3–0.10.20.3–0.4–0.4−0.10.1
    United Kingdom0.10.0–0.30.20.10.00.00.1–0.5–1.11.30.3
    Canada0.10.10.20.70.10.5–0.2–0.1–0.2–0.90.70.1
    Other Advanced Economies0.00.00.1–0.10.6–0.10.0–0.20.3–1.91.30.3
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies0.00.00.10.10.3–0.10.10.0–0.4–0.70.90.2
    Newly Industrialized Asian Economies–0.20.10.4–0.20.8–0.20.2–0.31.0–2.91.90.1
    Foreign Balance2
    Advanced Economies–0.10.1–0.1–0.3–0.1–0.10.20.40.50.40.20.3
    United States–0.50.0–0.7–0.5–0.7–0.3–0.10.61.21.3−0.50.0
    Euro Area0.10.6–0.60.3–0.20.20.30.1–0.70.70.7
    Germany0.20.52.0–0.81.30.71.11.6–0.1–3.21.10.9
    France0.2–0.40.0–0.7–0.8–0.8–0.3–1.0–0.3–0.20.20.0
    Italy0.3–0.2–0.8–0.80.2–0.30.00.20.1–1.30.20.2
    Spain–0.1–0.1–0.6–0.8–1.7–1.7–1.4–0.81.52.70.80.7
    Japan0.00.60.70.70.80.30.81.10.1–1.32.20.4
    United Kingdom–0.2–0.1–1.1–0.1–0.70.00.2–0.50.70.8−0.80.5
    Canada0.7–1.10.0–2.3–0.8–1.6–1.4–1.5–1.90.2−1.8−0.3
    Other Advanced Economies0.30.60.10.60.41.01.00.80.11.40.60.3
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies–0.10.1–0.1–0.4–0.2–0.20.10.40.50.10.10.2
    Newly Industrialized Asian Economies0.21.50.92.01.32.11.92.00.51.81.61.0

    In this table, Other Advanced Economies means Advanced Economies excluding the G7 and Euro Area countries.

    Changes expressed as percent GDP in the preceding period.

    Table A4.Emerging and Developing Economies: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    AverageProjections
    1992–200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112015
    Central and Eastern Europe22.84.44.87.35.96.55.53.0–3.63.73.14.1
    Albania5.54.25.85.75.85.45.97.73.32.63.25.0
    Bosnia and Herzegovina5.03.56.34.06.16.15.7–3.10.53.04.5
    Bulgaria–2.54.55.06.66.26.36.26.0–5.00.02.05.0
    Croatia5.45.04.24.24.75.52.4–5.8−1.51.63.0
    Estonia7.97.67.29.410.66.9–5.1–13.91.83.53.1
    Hungary2.54.44.34.93.54.01.00.6–6.30.62.03.0
    Kosovo–0.75.42.63.83.84.05.44.04.65.94.4
    Latvia6.57.28.710.612.210.0–4.2–18.0−1.03.34.0
    Lithuania6.910.27.47.87.89.82.8–14.81.33.13.6
    Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of–0.80.92.84.14.13.96.15.0–0.81.23.04.0
    Montenegro1.92.54.44.28.610.76.9–5.7−1.84.54.0
    Poland4.61.43.95.33.66.26.85.01.73.43.74.3
    Romania0.35.15.28.54.27.96.37.3–7.1−1.91.54.2
    Serbia3.92.48.55.45.26.95.5–3.01.53.05.0
    Turkey3.06.25.39.48.46.94.70.7–4.77.83.64.0
    Commonwealth of Independent States2,3–3.15.27.78.16.78.89.05.3–6.54.34.64.3
    Russia–2.94.77.37.26.48.28.55.2–7.94.04.34.0
    Excluding Russia6.69.110.87.610.510.05.4–3.25.35.24.9
    Armenia13.214.010.513.913.213.76.9–14.24.04.64.0
    Azerbaijan8.110.510.226.434.525.010.89.34.31.80.9
    Belarus–0.75.07.011.49.410.08.610.20.27.26.24.5
    Georgia5.511.15.99.69.412.32.3–3.95.54.05.0
    Kazakhstan9.89.39.69.710.78.93.21.25.45.16.5
    Kyrgyz Republic0.07.07.0–0.23.18.58.42.3−3.57.14.7
    Moldova7.86.67.47.54.83.07.8–6.53.23.55.0
    Mongolia1.24.77.010.67.38.610.28.9–1.68.57.012.8
    Tajikistan9.110.210.66.77.07.87.93.45.55.05.0
    Turkmenistan15.817.114.713.011.411.610.56.19.411.57.2
    Ukraine–6.45.29.612.12.77.37.92.1–15.13.74.54.0
    Uzbekistan0.34.04.27.47.07.59.59.08.18.07.06.0
    Developing Asia7.36.98.28.69.510.411.47.76.99.48.48.5
    Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of15.18.816.18.214.23.422.58.96.87.0
    Bangladesh5.04.85.86.16.36.56.36.05.65.86.37.0
    Bhutan5.610.84.08.07.06.419.75.06.36.86.64.7
    Brunei Darussalam2.23.92.90.50.44.40.2–1.9–0.50.51.01.6
    Cambodia7.06.68.510.313.310.810.26.7–2.04.86.86.8
    China10.39.110.110.111.312.714.29.69.110.59.69.5
    Fiji3.13.21.05.50.61.9–0.5–0.1–2.21.82.02.4
    India5.74.66.98.19.29.79.96.45.79.78.48.1
    Indonesia3.64.54.85.05.75.56.36.04.56.06.27.0
    Kiribati4.06.12.32.23.91.90.4–1.1–0.71.51.21.2
    Lao People’s Democratic Republic6.16.96.27.06.88.67.87.87.67.77.59.3
    Malaysia6.25.45.86.85.35.86.54.7–1.76.75.35.0
    Maldives7.16.58.59.5–4.618.07.26.2–3.13.43.64.5
    Myanmar8.312.013.813.613.613.111.93.64.95.35.05.0
    Nepal4.90.13.94.73.53.43.46.14.93.04.04.8
    Pakistan3.63.24.97.47.76.15.61.63.44.82.86.0
    Papua New Guinea3.62.04.40.63.92.37.26.74.58.05.55.0
    Philippines3.34.44.96.45.05.37.13.71.17.04.54.5
    Samoa4.06.23.84.27.02.22.35.0–4.9−1.33.03.0
    Solomon Islands1.1–2.86.54.95.46.910.77.3–2.23.45.210.5
    Sri Lanka4.64.05.95.46.27.76.86.03.57.07.06.5
    Thailand3.85.37.16.34.65.14.92.5–2.27.54.05.0
    Timor-Leste2.1–0.14.46.5–5.99.111.011.67.98.26.3
    Tonga1.23.11.80.0–0.2–0.30.40.8–0.50.61.71.8
    Vanuatu2.7–4.23.74.45.17.26.76.33.63.03.74.0
    Vietnam7.77.17.37.88.48.28.56.35.36.56.87.5
    Latin America and the Caribbean3.00.52.16.04.75.65.74.3–1.75.74.03.9
    Antigua and Barbuda3.32.04.35.45.012.96.51.8–8.9−4.13.14.4
    Argentina42.7–10.98.89.09.28.58.76.80.97.54.03.0
    Bahamas, The3.12.20.71.65.03.51.9–1.7–4.30.51.52.5
    Barbados1.10.72.04.83.93.63.8–0.2–5.5−0.53.02.5
    Belize5.45.19.34.63.04.71.23.80.02.02.32.5
    Bolivia3.42.52.74.24.44.84.66.13.44.04.54.5
    Brazil2.62.71.15.73.24.06.15.1–0.27.54.14.1
    Chile6.02.24.06.05.54.64.63.7–1.55.06.04.5
    Colombia2.72.53.95.35.07.16.32.70.84.74.64.5
    Costa Rica5.12.96.44.35.98.87.92.8–1.13.84.24.4
    Dominica1.5–5.10.13.03.34.82.53.2–0.31.42.53.0
    Dominican Republic6.25.8–0.31.39.310.78.55.33.55.55.56.0
    Ecuador2.33.43.38.85.74.82.06.50.42.92.32.0
    El Salvador4.42.32.31.93.34.24.32.4–3.51.02.54.0
    Grenada3.81.67.1–5.711.0–2.34.92.2–7.70.82.04.0
    Guatemala3.63.92.53.23.35.46.33.30.52.42.63.2
    Guyana4.51.1–0.71.6–1.95.17.02.03.02.93.13.0
    Haiti0.1–0.30.4–3.51.82.23.30.82.9−8.59.86.0
    Honduras3.23.84.56.26.16.66.24.0–1.92.43.54.0
    Jamaica0.51.03.51.41.13.01.4–0.9–3.0−0.11.82.1
    Mexico3.00.81.74.03.24.93.31.5–6.55.03.93.8
    Nicaragua3.90.82.55.34.34.23.12.8–1.53.03.04.0
    Panama4.62.24.27.57.28.512.110.13.06.26.76.7
    Paraguay1.70.03.84.12.94.36.85.8–3.89.05.04.0
    Peru3.85.04.05.06.87.78.99.80.98.36.05.7
    St. Kitts and Nevis4.4–0.3–1.27.35.22.64.24.6–5.5−1.50.52.0
    St. Lucia1.70.63.53.84.44.81.50.7–5.21.12.33.8
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines2.93.22.86.82.67.68.0–0.6–1.00.52.03.5
    Suriname0.82.86.38.54.43.85.26.02.54.04.76.0
    Trinidad and Tobago4.67.914.47.96.213.24.82.4–3.51.22.52.6
    Uruguay2.2–7.12.34.66.84.37.58.52.98.55.04.0
    Venezuela1.5–8.9–7.818.310.39.98.24.8–3.3−1.30.51.7
    Middle East and North Africa3.43.86.95.85.35.86.05.02.04.15.14.9
    Algeria2.04.76.95.25.12.03.02.42.43.84.04.1
    Bahrain4.95.27.25.67.96.78.46.33.14.04.55.2
    Djibouti–1.12.63.23.03.24.85.15.85.04.55.46.2
    Egypt4.53.23.24.14.56.87.17.24.75.35.56.5
    Iran, Islamic Republic of2.97.57.25.14.75.87.81.01.11.63.03.0
    Iraq–0.76.21.59.54.22.611.510.2
    Jordan5.15.84.28.68.17.98.57.62.33.44.25.5
    Kuwait8.92.817.411.210.45.34.55.5–4.82.34.45.3
    Lebanon4.13.43.27.51.00.67.59.39.08.05.04.0
    Libya–1.7–1.313.04.410.36.77.52.3–2.310.66.27.7
    Mauritania2.91.15.65.25.411.41.03.7–1.14.75.14.7
    Morocco2.43.36.34.83.07.82.75.64.94.04.35.0
    Oman4.42.10.33.44.05.56.812.83.64.74.74.5
    Qatar7.93.26.317.77.618.626.825.48.616.018.65.1
    Saudi Arabia1.90.17.75.35.63.22.04.20.63.44.54.7
    Sudan4.55.47.15.16.311.310.26.84.55.56.25.1
    Syrian Arab Republic4.15.9–2.16.74.55.14.35.24.05.05.55.6
    Tunisia4.81.75.56.04.05.76.34.53.13.84.85.8
    United Arab Emirates4.32.611.99.78.28.76.15.1–2.52.43.24.1
    Yemen, Republic of5.43.93.74.05.63.23.33.63.98.04.14.5
    Sub-Saharan Africa2.87.45.07.26.36.47.05.52.65.05.55.4
    Angola1.514.53.311.220.618.620.313.30.75.97.14.2
    Benin4.74.44.03.02.93.84.65.02.52.83.66.0
    Botswana5.49.06.36.01.65.14.83.1–3.78.44.85.3
    Burkina Faso5.14.47.84.58.75.53.65.23.24.44.76.5
    Burundi–2.14.4–1.24.80.95.13.64.53.53.94.55.0
    Cameroon52.24.04.03.72.33.23.32.92.02.62.93.5
    Cape Verde7.35.34.74.36.510.18.65.63.04.16.06.8
    Central African Republic1.3–0.6–7.11.02.43.83.72.01.73.34.05.5
    Chad2.98.514.733.67.90.20.2–0.4–1.64.33.92.7
    Comoros2.04.12.5–0.24.21.20.51.01.82.12.54.0
    Congo, Democratic Republic of–5.03.55.86.67.85.66.36.22.85.47.06.9
    Congo, Republic of1.64.60.83.57.86.2–1.65.67.510.68.72.9
    Côte d’Ivoire3.3–1.6–1.71.61.90.71.62.33.83.04.06.0
    Equatorial Guinea38.319.514.038.09.71.321.410.75.30.92.10.7
    Eritrea3.0–2.71.52.6–1.01.4–9.83.61.82.83.7
    Ethiopia4.41.6–2.111.712.611.511.811.29.98.08.58.0
    Gabon1.3–0.32.51.43.01.25.32.7–1.44.55.02.4
    Gambia, The4.6–3.26.97.00.33.46.06.35.65.05.45.4
    Ghana4.14.55.25.65.96.45.77.24.15.09.95.8
    Guinea4.34.21.22.33.02.51.84.9–0.33.03.94.1
    Guinea-Bissau0.81.8–3.53.15.02.20.23.63.03.54.34.7
    Kenya2.10.32.84.66.06.36.91.32.44.15.86.5
    Lesotho4.21.14.32.31.16.52.44.50.95.63.822.0
    Liberia3.8–31.32.65.37.89.47.14.66.39.57.6
    Madagascar3.0–12.49.85.34.65.06.27.1–3.7−2.02.85.0
    Malawi2.11.75.55.52.67.75.88.87.56.06.26.8
    Mali3.74.37.62.36.15.34.35.04.45.15.44.5
    Mauritius5.61.94.35.51.53.95.45.02.53.64.14.4
    Mozambique7.19.26.58.88.76.37.36.76.36.57.57.8
    Namibia3.54.84.312.32.57.15.44.3–0.84.44.84.2
    Niger1.55.37.1–0.88.45.83.48.7–1.23.55.24.4
    Nigeria2.721.210.310.65.46.27.06.07.07.47.46.0
    Rwanda1.613.22.27.49.49.25.511.24.15.45.96.5
    São Tomé and Prãncipe1.711.65.46.65.76.76.05.84.04.55.529.3
    Senegal3.30.76.75.95.62.45.03.22.24.04.45.0
    Seychelles4.01.2–5.9–2.97.58.319.7–1.30.74.05.05.0
    Sierra Leone–5.327.49.57.47.27.36.45.53.24.55.26.5
    South Africa2.23.72.94.65.35.65.53.7–1.83.03.54.5
    Swaziland2.91.83.92.52.22.93.52.41.22.02.52.4
    Tanzania3.37.26.97.87.46.77.17.46.06.56.77.0
    Togo0.7–0.25.22.31.23.71.92.23.13.33.54.0
    Uganda6.68.76.56.86.310.88.48.77.25.86.17.0
    Zambia0.33.35.15.45.36.26.25.76.36.66.47.4
    Zimbabwe6–3.7–3.7–18.95.75.94.54.5

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the output growth of new private enterprises in the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

    Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Private analysts are of the view that real GDP growth has been lower than the official reports since the last quarter of 2008.

    The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July–June to January–December).

    The Zimbabwe dollar ceased circulating in early 2009. Data are based on staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in U.S. dollars. IMF staff estimates of U.S. dollar values may differ from the authorities’ estimates. Real GDP is in constant 2009 prices.

    Table A5.Summary of Inflation(Percent)
    AverageProjections
    1992–200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112015
    GDP Deflators
    Advanced Economies2.01.61.82.02.12.22.32.00.71.11.31.7
    United States1.91.62.22.83.33.32.92.20.90.91.31.8
    Euro Area2.12.62.21.92.01.92.42.11.01.31.41.8
    Japan–0.2–1.5–1.6–1.1–1.2–0.9–0.7–0.8–0.9−2.1−1.20.4
    Other Advanced Economies12.61.92.12.41.92.22.73.10.82.72.62.2
    Consumer Prices
    Advanced Economies2.41.61.92.02.32.42.23.40.11.41.31.9
    United States2.71.62.32.73.43.22.93.8–0.31.41.01.9
    Euro Area22.22.32.12.22.22.22.13.30.31.61.51.9
    Japan0.4–0.9–0.30.0–0.30.30.01.4–1.4−1.0−0.31.0
    Other Advanced Economies12.61.71.81.82.12.12.13.81.52.52.52.2
    Emerging and Developing Economies38.46.96.75.95.95.66.59.25.26.25.23.8
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe50.918.611.16.65.95.96.08.14.75.24.13.2
    Commonwealth of Independent States3172.114.012.310.412.19.59.715.611.27.07.95.2
    Developing Asia7.42.12.64.13.84.25.47.53.16.14.22.8
    Latin America and the Caribbean51.98.510.46.66.35.35.47.96.06.15.85.2
    Middle East and North Africa10.14.95.56.56.47.510.013.56.76.86.25.5
    Sub-Saharan Africa26.211.310.97.68.96.96.911.710.47.57.05.5
    Memorandum
    European Union5.82.52.22.32.32.32.43.70.91.91.82.0
    Analytical Groups
    By Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel71.311.911.59.810.09.010.115.09.48.08.06.3
    Nonfuel30.05.75.65.04.94.75.67.94.35.94.63.3
    Of Which, Primary Products5.65.03.85.25.25.19.15.24.44.73.9
    By External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Economies39.18.07.45.55.95.86.09.07.17.45.74.2
    Of Which, Official Financing19.64.48.57.48.68.39.014.79.07.06.64.9
    Net Debtor Economies by Debt-Servicing Experience
    Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling during 2004–0829.116.311.97.88.08.78.211.46.67.97.86.8
    Memorandum
    Median Inflation Rate
    Advanced Economies2.42.32.12.02.12.22.13.80.81.81.92.0
    Emerging and Developing Economies8.33.64.44.46.06.06.410.33.74.74.74.0

    In this table, Other Advanced Economies means advanced economies excluding the United States, Euro Area countries, and Japan.

    Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

    Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Table A6.Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    End of Period1
    AverageProjectionsProjections
    1992–200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112015200920102011
    Consumer Prices
    Advanced Economies2.41.61.92.02.32.42.23.40.11.41.31.91.01.11.5
    United States2.71.62.32.73.43.22.93.8−0.31.41.01.91.90.51.2
    Euro Area22.22.32.12.22.22.22.13.30.31.61.51.90.91.61.5
    Germany2.11.41.01.81.91.82.32.80.21.31.42.00.81.31.4
    France1.61.92.22.31.91.91.63.20.11.61.61.90.11.61.6
    Italy3.32.62.82.32.22.22.03.50.81.61.72.01.01.71.7
    Spain3.73.63.13.13.43.62.84.1−0.21.51.11.90.91.41.2
    Netherlands2.53.82.21.41.51.71.62.21.01.31.11.51.01.31.1
    Belgium1.91.61.51.92.52.31.84.50.02.01.92.20.02.52.0
    Greece7.63.93.43.03.53.33.04.21.44.62.21.02.04.41.4
    Austria1.91.71.32.02.11.72.23.20.41.51.72.01.11.12.1
    Portugal4.03.73.32.52.13.02.42.7−0.90.91.21.9−0.10.91.3
    Finland1.82.01.30.10.81.31.63.91.61.41.81.71.81.41.8
    Ireland2.74.74.02.32.22.72.93.1−1.7−1.6−0.51.9−2.6−0.60.1
    Slovak Republic3.58.47.52.84.31.93.90.90.71.92.80.01.02.0
    Slovenia7.55.63.62.52.53.65.70.91.52.32.91.62.12.4
    Luxembourg2.12.12.02.22.52.72.33.40.42.31.91.91.82.71.2
    Cyprus3.52.84.01.92.02.22.24.40.22.22.32.21.61.33.3
    Malta3.12.61.92.72.52.60.74.71.81.92.12.4−0.43.22.4
    Japan0.4−0.9−0.30.0−0.30.30.01.4−1.4−1.0−0.31.0−1.7−1.10.7
    United Kingdom22.11.31.41.32.02.32.33.62.13.12.52.02.12.62.5
    Canada1.72.32.71.82.22.02.12.40.31.82.02.00.82.12.0
    Korea4.62.83.53.62.82.22.54.72.83.13.43.02.83.03.5
    Australia2.33.02.82.32.73.52.34.41.83.03.02.52.13.13.1
    Taiwan Province of China2.2−0.2−0.31.62.30.61.83.5−0.91.51.52.0−6.42.31.5
    Sweden2.01.92.31.00.81.51.73.32.01.81.92.02.81.61.9
    Switzerland1.50.60.60.81.21.10.72.4−0.50.70.51.00.30.70.5
    Hong Kong SAR4.1−3.0−2.6−0.40.92.02.04.30.52.73.02.5−2.32.73.0
    Czech Republic1.90.12.81.82.52.96.31.01.62.02.01.02.32.2
    Norway2.31.32.50.51.52.30.73.82.22.51.42.52.01.61.9
    Singapore1.5−0.40.51.70.51.02.16.60.62.82.42.0−0.84.11.1
    Denmark2.02.42.11.21.81.91.73.41.32.02.02.01.52.22.0
    Israel7.85.70.7−0.41.42.10.54.63.32.32.82.54.01.12.6
    New Zealand1.82.61.72.33.03.42.44.02.12.55.52.02.04.14.4
    Iceland3.24.82.13.24.06.85.012.412.05.93.52.57.54.02.7
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies2.11.31.72.02.32.42.23.2−0.11.21.11.81.10.71.4
    Newly Industrialized Asian
    Economies3.61.01.52.42.21.62.24.51.32.62.72.6−0.72.92.7

    December–December changes. Several countries report Q4–Q4 changes.

    Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

    Table A7.Emerging and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    End of Period2
    AverageProjectionsProjections
    1992–200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112015200920102011
    Central and Eastern Europe350.918.611.16.65.95.96.08.14.75.24.13.24.65.14.1
    Albania31.15.22.32.92.42.42.93.42.23.42.93.03.53.02.9
    Bosnia and Herzegovina0.30.50.33.66.11.57.4−0.42.42.52.50.03.32.0
    Bulgaria80.85.82.36.16.07.47.612.02.52.22.93.01.62.73.0
    Croatia1.71.82.03.33.22.96.12.41.92.83.01.92.52.8
    Estonia3.61.33.04.14.46.610.4−0.12.52.02.5−1.73.81.4
    Hungary17.65.34.66.83.63.97.96.14.24.73.33.05.63.53.3
    Kosovo3.60.3−1.1−1.40.64.49.4−2.41.73.21.70.13.12.4
    Latvia2.02.96.26.96.610.115.33.3−1.40.91.4−1.41.30.3
    Lithuania0.3−1.11.22.73.85.811.14.21.01.31.71.20.51.2
    Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of72.62.21.2−0.40.53.22.38.3−0.81.93.03.0−1.62.03.0
    Montenegro19.77.53.13.43.04.28.53.40.61.01.51.50.81.1
    Poland20.21.90.83.52.11.02.54.23.52.42.72.53.52.42.7
    Romania88.222.515.311.99.06.64.87.85.65.95.23.04.77.93.0
    Serbia19.511.710.117.312.76.512.48.14.64.44.06.66.85.0
    Turkey74.945.125.38.68.29.68.810.46.38.75.74.06.57.66.2
    Commonwealth of Independent States3,4172.114.012.310.412.19.59.715.611.27.07.95.28.68.27.2
    Russia157.415.813.710.912.79.79.014.111.76.67.45.08.87.56.8
    Excluding Russia9.28.79.110.78.911.619.510.18.28.95.68.19.98.2
    Armenia1.14.77.00.62.94.49.03.57.85.54.06.67.14.6
    Azerbaijan2.82.26.79.78.416.620.81.55.56.03.00.77.05.0
    Belarus324.842.628.418.110.37.08.414.813.07.310.85.010.110.010.0
    Georgia5.64.85.78.39.29.210.01.76.47.46.03.08.86.0
    Kazakhstan5.96.67.17.98.710.817.17.37.66.66.06.38.06.8
    Kyrgyz Republic45.52.13.14.14.35.610.224.56.84.85.77.90.06.08.0
    Moldova5.211.712.411.912.712.412.70.07.46.04.00.48.06.0
    Mongolia57.10.95.17.912.54.58.226.86.310.58.95.01.912.07.4
    Tajikistan12.216.47.27.310.013.220.46.57.08.05.05.09.07.0
    Turkmenistan8.85.65.910.78.26.314.5−2.73.94.84.50.24.65.0
    Ukraine222.20.75.29.013.59.112.825.215.99.810.85.212.312.09.8
    Uzbekistan27.311.66.610.014.212.312.714.110.611.410.010.612.910.0
    Developing Asia7.42.12.64.13.84.25.47.53.16.14.22.84.75.14.1
    Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of5.124.113.212.35.113.026.8−12.20.43.44.0−5.15.04.0
    Bangladesh4.93.75.46.17.06.89.18.95.48.56.94.08.57.46.4
    Bhutan8.32.52.14.65.35.05.28.48.78.04.53.98.37.04.5
    Brunei Darussalam1.9−2.30.30.91.10.20.32.71.81.81.81.81.81.81.8
    Cambodia20.10.11.03.96.36.17.725.0−0.74.05.23.05.34.54.0
    China6.9−0.81.23.91.81.54.85.9−0.73.52.72.00.73.52.7
    Fiji3.20.84.22.82.42.54.87.73.76.23.83.06.84.03.3
    India8.04.33.83.84.26.26.48.310.913.26.74.015.08.65.7
    Indonesia13.411.86.86.110.513.16.09.84.85.15.53.72.85.95.8
    Kiribati3.13.21.9−0.9−0.3−1.54.211.08.82.42.52.50.12.42.5
    Lao People’s Democratic Republic28.510.615.510.57.26.84.57.60.05.45.73.33.95.55.7
    Malaysia3.31.81.11.43.03.62.05.40.62.22.12.51.22.22.1
    Maldives5.90.9−2.86.32.53.57.412.34.04.55.53.04.05.06.0
    Myanmar24.758.124.93.810.726.332.922.58.07.99.19.36.89.09.2
    Nepal8.62.94.74.04.58.06.47.713.210.56.85.011.49.66.0
    Pakistan8.32.53.14.69.37.97.812.020.811.713.56.013.112.712.5
    Papua New Guinea9.711.814.72.11.82.40.910.86.97.18.05.05.78.57.5
    Philippines7.53.03.56.07.66.22.89.33.24.54.04.04.34.54.0
    Samoa3.97.44.37.87.83.24.56.214.4−0.23.04.09.8−0.36.0
    Solomon Islands9.69.510.56.97.011.17.717.47.14.86.25.21.86.56.0
    Sri Lanka9.99.69.09.011.010.015.822.63.46.58.06.04.86.58.6
    Thailand4.10.71.82.84.54.62.25.5−0.83.02.82.03.51.55.8
    Timor-Leste4.77.23.21.84.18.97.60.14.04.04.02.04.04.0
    Tonga4.010.811.510.68.36.07.57.33.53.24.26.02.84.24.1
    Vanuatu2.82.03.01.41.22.03.94.84.53.73.03.02.33.93.0
    Vietnam8.64.13.37.98.47.58.323.16.78.48.05.06.58.07.1
    Latin America and the Caribbean51.98.510.46.66.35.35.47.96.06.15.85.24.86.75.8
    Antigua and Barbuda2.42.42.02.02.11.81.45.3−0.62.01.62.22.4−1.14.4
    Argentina54.625.913.44.49.610.98.88.66.310.610.611.07.711.011.0
    Bahamas, The2.02.23.01.02.21.82.54.52.11.71.42.01.31.71.2
    Barbados2.5−1.21.61.46.17.34.08.13.75.03.62.14.35.02.2
    Belize1.62.22.63.13.74.22.36.42.02.84.22.5−0.45.92.5
    Bolivia7.10.93.34.45.44.38.714.03.31.74.13.50.33.53.5
    Brazil157.18.414.86.66.94.23.65.74.95.04.64.54.35.24.8
    Chile7.62.52.81.13.13.44.48.71.71.73.03.0−1.43.73.0
    Colombia17.86.37.15.95.04.35.57.04.22.42.63.02.03.23.3
    Costa Rica14.29.29.412.313.811.59.413.47.85.64.24.04.05.54.5
    Dominica1.70.11.62.41.62.63.26.40.02.31.51.53.21.51.5
    Dominican Republic7.25.227.451.54.27.66.110.61.46.94.94.05.86.35.0
    Ecuador41.412.67.92.72.13.32.38.45.24.03.53.04.33.73.2
    El Salvador7.21.92.14.54.74.04.67.30.41.12.82.80.01.52.8
    Grenada2.11.12.22.33.54.23.98.0−0.33.61.92.0−2.44.72.0
    Guatemala9.08.15.67.69.16.66.811.41.93.94.54.0−0.35.55.0
    Guyana8.95.46.04.76.96.712.28.13.03.74.64.03.74.54.0
    Haiti19.79.326.728.316.814.29.014.43.44.98.85.5−4.78.58.6
    Honduras15.57.77.78.08.85.66.911.58.74.65.55.33.05.75.8
    Jamaica19.17.010.113.515.18.59.322.09.612.75.85.510.210.25.3
    Mexico16.75.04.54.74.03.64.05.15.34.23.23.03.54.53.0
    Nicaragua10.73.85.38.59.69.111.119.83.75.76.46.90.97.06.7
    Panama1.11.00.60.52.92.54.28.82.43.43.02.51.94.12.7
    Paraguay11.810.514.24.36.89.68.110.22.64.65.23.71.95.55.5
    Peru17.50.22.33.71.62.01.85.82.91.72.52.00.22.82.0
    St. Kitts and Nevis3.12.12.32.23.48.54.55.41.92.52.42.51.02.22.5
    St. Lucia3.1−0.31.01.53.93.61.97.20.61.72.52.21.01.92.1
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines2.00.70.23.03.73.16.910.10.41.22.82.9−1.61.92.9
    Suriname77.315.523.09.19.911.36.414.6−0.16.47.75.51.312.44.9
    Trinidad and Tobago5.34.23.83.76.98.37.912.07.09.48.25.01.310.46.0
    Uruguay26.514.019.49.24.76.48.17.97.16.56.45.55.97.06.0
    Venezuela40.822.431.121.716.013.718.730.427.129.232.222.925.133.331.0
    Middle East and North Africa10.14.95.56.56.47.510.013.56.76.86.25.55.66.56.3
    Algeria14.11.42.63.61.62.33.64.95.75.55.24.55.85.35.1
    Bahrain1.0−0.51.72.22.62.03.33.52.82.62.52.52.82.52.5
    Djibouti3.10.62.03.13.13.55.012.01.73.94.03.02.23.93.5
    Egypt7.72.43.28.18.84.211.011.716.211.710.06.510.010.710.0
    Iran, Islamic Republic of23.015.715.615.310.411.918.425.410.89.58.510.010.48.010.0
    Iraq37.053.230.82.7−2.85.15.04.0−4.46.05.0
    Jordan2.91.81.63.43.56.34.713.9−0.75.55.02.22.75.85.1
    Kuwait1.60.81.01.34.13.15.510.64.04.13.63.11.24.13.6
    Lebanon13.81.81.31.7−0.75.64.110.81.25.03.52.23.44.72.8
    Libya3.6−9.9−2.11.02.91.46.210.42.84.53.53.02.84.53.5
    Mauritania5.45.45.310.412.16.27.37.32.26.15.25.05.05.35.1
    Morocco3.22.81.21.51.03.32.03.91.01.52.22.2−1.61.52.2
    Oman−0.1−0.30.20.71.93.45.912.63.54.43.52.84.03.93.3
    Qatar2.40.22.36.88.811.813.815.0−4.91.03.04.0−4.91.03.0
    Saudi Arabia0.30.20.60.40.62.34.19.95.15.55.34.04.26.54.5
    Sudan55.78.37.78.48.57.28.014.311.310.09.05.511.510.08.0
    Syrian Arab Republic5.1−0.55.84.47.210.44.715.22.85.05.05.01.75.05.0
    Tunisia3.92.82.73.62.04.13.44.93.54.53.53.04.04.23.5
    United Arab Emirates3.42.93.15.06.29.311.112.31.22.02.53.51.62.22.7
    Yemen, Republic of31.212.210.812.59.910.87.919.03.79.88.97.08.810.87.1
    Sub-Saharan Africa26.211.310.97.68.96.96.911.710.47.57.05.57.97.36.6
    Angola569.9108.998.343.623.013.312.212.513.713.311.36.014.011.212.0
    Benin7.82.41.50.95.43.81.38.02.22.82.82.8−2.93.02.8
    Botswana10.08.09.27.08.611.67.112.68.16.76.35.25.86.65.9
    Burkina Faso4.62.32.0−0.46.42.4−0.210.72.62.32.02.0−0.32.02.0
    Burundi15.3−1.310.78.013.52.78.324.410.77.28.45.04.69.87.0
    Cameroon65.26.30.60.32.04.91.15.33.03.02.72.70.92.71.5
    Cape Verde5.51.91.2−1.90.44.84.46.81.01.82.02.0−0.42.72.0
    Central African Republic4.62.34.4−2.22.96.70.99.33.51.42.42.0−1.23.11.8
    Chad5.35.2−1.8−4.83.77.7−7.48.310.16.03.03.04.79.03.0
    Comoros4.33.63.74.53.03.44.54.84.82.62.93.02.13.12.7
    Congo, Democratic Republic of818.725.312.84.021.413.216.718.046.226.213.58.352.315.012.0
    Congo, Republic of6.43.01.73.72.54.72.66.04.35.24.53.02.54.24.8
    Côte d’Ivoire6.33.13.31.53.92.51.96.31.01.42.52.5−1.72.12.5
    Equatorial Guinea7.87.67.34.25.74.52.84.37.28.07.16.48.17.76.9
    Eritrea16.922.725.112.515.19.319.934.720.515.014.030.216.814.5
    Ethiopia4.6−7.215.18.66.812.315.825.336.42.89.06.02.77.39.8
    Gabon5.50.22.10.41.2−1.45.05.32.13.03.53.00.83.03.5
    Gambia, The3.88.617.014.35.02.15.44.54.63.95.05.02.75.05.0
    Ghana27.114.826.712.615.110.210.716.519.310.68.85.016.09.28.5
    Guinea6.03.011.017.531.434.722.918.44.715.416.55.07.919.413.5
    Guinea-Bissau27.33.3−3.50.83.30.74.610.4−1.61.52.52.5−6.42.52.5
    Kenya14.52.09.811.89.96.04.316.29.34.15.05.05.35.05.0
    Lesotho9.512.57.35.03.46.18.010.77.26.36.05.04.25.85.6
    Liberia14.210.33.66.97.213.717.57.47.24.35.09.74.84.7
    Madagascar16.116.2−1.114.018.410.810.49.29.09.08.85.08.09.28.5
    Malawi33.017.49.611.415.513.97.98.78.48.08.05.67.67.67.0
    Mali4.04.9−1.2−3.16.41.51.59.12.22.12.63.41.62.32.8
    Mauritius6.86.53.94.74.99.08.89.72.52.52.62.62.52.52.6
    Mozambique26.116.813.512.66.413.28.210.33.39.35.65.64.28.05.6
    Namibia9.711.37.24.12.35.16.710.09.16.55.94.97.06.05.7
    Niger5.32.7−1.80.47.80.10.110.51.13.42.02.0−0.61.82.0
    Nigeria29.212.914.015.017.98.25.411.612.411.99.88.511.911.28.5
    Rwanda14.62.07.412.09.18.89.115.410.46.46.55.05.77.06.0
    São Tomé and Prãncipe31.99.29.612.817.223.118.526.017.012.37.43.016.19.06.0
    Senegal4.62.30.00.51.72.15.95.8−1.70.92.12.1−2.22.12.1
    Seychelles2.70.23.33.90.6−1.95.337.031.8−2.42.53.0−2.51.12.9
    Sierra Leone23.5−3.77.514.212.09.511.614.89.216.58.26.210.814.09.5
    South Africa8.09.25.81.43.44.77.111.57.15.65.84.56.35.85.7
    Swaziland8.811.77.43.44.85.38.213.17.66.25.64.85.45.95.3
    Tanzania17.14.64.44.14.47.37.010.312.17.25.05.012.25.05.0
    Togo6.53.1−0.90.46.82.20.98.71.92.22.02.4−2.44.31.0
    Uganda11.0−2.05.75.08.06.66.87.314.29.45.55.812.34.24.4
    Zambia52.422.221.418.018.39.010.712.413.48.27.55.09.98.07.0
    Zimbabwe76.54.77.84.9−7.79.16.2

    In accordance with standard practice in the World Economic Outlook, movements in consumer prices are indicated as annual averages rather than as December–December changes during the year, as is the practice in some countries. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    December–December changes. Several countries report Q4–Q4 changes.

    For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation data with broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

    Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Private analysts estimate that CPI inflation has been considerably higher. The authorities have created a board of academic advisors to assess these issues.

    The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July–June to January–December).

    The Zimbabwe dollar ceased circulating in early 2009. Data are based on staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in U.S. dollars. Staff estimates of U.S. dollar values may differ from authorities’ estimates.

    Table A8.Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt1(Percent of GDP unless noted otherwise)
    AverageProjections
    1994–2003200420052006200720082009201020112015
    Major Advanced Economies
    Net Lending/Borrowing−4.2−3.3−2.3−2.1−4.7−10.1−9.3−8.0−5.0
    Output Gap2−0.1−0.5−0.30.30.5−1.1−5.4−4.2−3.5−0.7
    Structural Balance2−3.6−2.8−2.3−2.1−3.8−6.1−6.8−5.9−4.5
    United States
    Net Lending/Borrowing−4.4−3.2−2.0−2.7−6.7−12.9−11.1−9.7−6.5
    Output Gap20.1−0.50.00.30.0−1.8−6.0−4.9−4.3−1.3
    Structural Balance2−3.2−2.3−2.0−2.3−4.9−7.2−8.0−7.1−5.7
    Net Debt44.442.242.641.942.447.658.865.872.784.7
    Gross Debt63.361.461.661.162.171.184.392.799.3110.7
    Euro Area
    Net Lending/Borrowing−2.7−2.9−2.5−1.3−0.6−1.9−6.3−6.5−5.1−2.8
    Output Gap2−0.7−0.8−0.90.51.70.8−3.7−2.9−2.5−0.1
    Structural Balance2−2.8−3.0−2.7−2.1−1.8−2.6−4.3−4.5−3.6−2.5
    Net Debt54.455.055.253.351.053.462.367.470.473.8
    Gross Debt69.769.570.168.365.969.579.084.187.089.3
    Germany3
    Net Lending/Borrowing−2.5−3.8−3.3−1.60.20.0−3.1−4.5−3.7−1.4
    Output Gap2−0.2−1.8−2.2−0.11.31.1−4.3−2.2−1.50.2
    Structural Balance2,4−2.5−2.9−2.2−1.6−0.3−0.3−0.8−3.1−2.9−1.5
    Net Debt41.450.553.152.750.149.755.958.760.461.7
    Gross Debt58.665.768.067.664.966.373.575.376.575.6
    France
    Net Lending/Borrowing−3.3−3.6−3.0−2.3−2.7−3.3−7.6−8.0−6.0−2.2
    Output Gap20.00.40.30.81.1−0.4−3.9−3.5−2.9−0.2
    Structural Balance2,4−3.1−3.6−3.4−2.6−3.2−3.1−5.0−5.0−3.7−1.9
    Net Debt48.455.256.753.954.157.868.474.577.978.7
    Gross Debt57.664.966.463.763.867.578.184.287.688.4
    Italy
    Net Lending/Borrowing−4.2−3.6−4.4−3.3−1.5−2.7−5.2−5.1−4.3−3.0
    Output Gap2−0.10.0−0.40.81.5−0.5−3.7−3.0−2.60.0
    Structural Balance2,5−4.4−4.8−4.6−3.4−2.5−2.6−3.9−3.6−2.8−3.1
    Net Debt99.788.389.289.787.289.096.899.0100.199.5
    Gross Debt113.9103.8105.8106.5103.5106.1115.8118.4119.7118.8
    Japan
    Net Lending/Borrowing−6.0−6.2−4.8−4.0−2.4−4.1−10.2−9.6−8.9−7.4
    Output Gap2−0.9−1.1−0.8−0.30.4−1.6−7.1−5.0−4.1−0.2
    Structural Balance2−5.6−5.7−4.6−3.9−2.5−3.6−7.3−7.6−7.2−7.3
    Net Debt48.382.784.684.381.594.9111.6120.7129.5153.4
    Gross Debt126.0178.1191.6191.3187.7194.7217.6225.9234.1249.2
    United Kingdom
    Net Lending/Borrowing−2.1−3.4−3.3−2.6−2.7−4.9−10.3−10.2−8.1−2.4
    Output Gap2−0.10.1−0.30.00.70.4−4.0−2.7−2.3−0.6
    Structural Balance2−1.9−3.3−3.1−2.7−3.1−5.6−8.3−7.9−6.2−1.7
    Net Debt37.835.537.338.038.245.661.068.874.076.0
    Gross Debt43.140.242.143.143.952.168.576.781.983.9
    Canada
    Net Lending/Borrowing−1.00.91.51.61.60.1−5.5−4.9−2.9−0.2
    Output Gap20.51.11.51.71.70.1−3.8−2.4−1.50.0
    Structural Balance2−1.10.40.90.80.60.0−3.2−3.4−2.0−0.2
    Net Debt56.235.231.026.223.122.429.032.233.532.2
    Gross Debt90.672.671.669.465.169.881.681.780.571.6
    Note: The methodology and specific assumptions for each country are discussed in Box A1 in the Statistical Appendix.

    Debt data refer to the end of the year. Debt data are not always comparable across countries.

    Percent of potential GDP.

    Beginning in 1995, the debt and debt-service obligations of the Treuhandanstalt (and of various other agencies) were taken over by the general government. This debt is equivalent to 8 percent of GDP, and the associated debt service to ½ to 1 percent of GDP.

    Excludes sizable one-off receipts from the sale of assets, including licenses.

    Excludes one-off measures based on the authorities’ data and, in the absence of the latter, receipts from the sale of assets.

    Table A9.Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices(Annual percent change)
    AveragesProjections
    1992–20012002–112002200320042005200620072008200920102011
    Trade in Goods and Services
    World Trade1
    Volume6.85.23.55.410.87.88.97.42.9−11.011.47.0
    Price Deflator
    In U.S. Dollars5.64.51.210.59.55.35.68.011.2−10.34.71.5
    In SDRs6.42.7−0.52.13.65.56.03.87.7−8.16.61.2
    Volume of trade
    Exports
    Advanced Economies6.54.12.53.39.16.28.76.61.9−12.411.06.0
    Emerging and Developing Economies8.38.06.510.215.011.610.39.94.6−7.811.99.1
    Imports
    Advanced Economies6.73.62.74.29.36.57.75.00.4−12.710.15.2
    Emerging and Developing Economies7.39.26.410.616.011.810.913.09.0−8.214.39.9
    Terms of trade
    Advanced Economies−0.10.00.81.0−0.2−1.4−1.10.3−1.82.8−0.6−0.1
    Emerging and Developing Economies−0.71.41.02.12.35.02.90.03.4−4.21.20.4
    Trade in Goods
    World Trade1
    Volume6.85.44.07.011.37.58.87.12.7−12.012.57.0
    Price Deflator
    In U.S. Dollars−1.04.40.49.29.46.16.27.711.7−11.85.81.7
    In SDRs−0.32.6−1.31.03.46.46.73.58.1−9.67.61.5
    World Trade Prices in U.S. Dollars2
    Manufactures−1.03.2−1.913.35.82.52.65.96.7−6.13.11.4
    Oil2.312.52.515.830.741.320.510.736.4−36.323.33.3
    Nonfuel Primary Commodities−1.36.41.95.915.26.123.214.17.5−18.716.8−2.0
    Food−2.05.83.56.314.0−0.910.515.223.4−14.76.8−1.3
    Beverages−2.08.024.34.8−0.918.18.413.823.31.611.7−18.2
    Agricultural Raw Materials0.11.5−0.20.64.10.58.85.0−0.8−17.023.9−5.6
    Metal−1.111.1−3.511.834.622.456.217.4−8.0−28.631.41.9
    World Trade Prices in SDRs2
    Manufactures−0.31.4−3.64.70.02.83.01.73.4−3.84.91.1
    Oil3.110.50.87.123.641.621.06.432.1−34.825.53.1
    Nonfuel Primary Commodities−0.64.50.2−2.19.06.323.89.64.1−16.718.9−2.3
    Food−1.33.91.8−1.77.8−0.711.010.719.5−12.68.7−1.6
    Beverages−1.36.122.2−3.1−6.318.38.89.419.44.113.6−18.4
    Agricultural Raw Materials0.9−0.3−1.9−7.0−1.60.89.30.9−3.9−14.926.1−5.8
    Metal−0.49.1−5.13.327.322.756.912.8−10.9−26.833.71.6
    World Trade Prices in Euros2
    Manufactures2.3−0.4−7.0−5.4−3.82.31.8−3.0−0.6−0.89.93.2
    Oil5.78.5−2.8−3.318.941.019.51.427.1−32.731.45.3
    Nonfuel Primary Commodities2.02.6−3.3−11.64.85.922.34.50.1−14.124.4−0.2
    Food1.32.0−1.8−11.23.7−1.19.65.614.9−9.813.80.5
    Beverages1.24.117.9−12.5−9.917.87.54.214.87.319.0−16.7
    Agricultural Raw Materials3.4−2.1−5.4−16.0−5.30.38.0−3.8−7.6−12.332.0−3.8
    Metal2.27.2−8.4−6.722.422.255.07.5−14.3−24.639.93.8
    Trade in Goods
    Volume of Trade
    Exports
    Advanced Economies6.34.22.85.09.65.78.76.11.8−13.812.45.9
    Emerging and Developing Economies8.37.76.911.614.110.79.58.84.3−8.512.38.9
    Fuel Exporters4.44.32.612.19.05.74.14.62.7−5.83.55.4
    Nonfuel Exporters9.89.08.511.415.912.611.810.65.0−9.815.710.4
    Imports
    Advanced Economies6.74.03.45.910.16.48.05.00.3−13.611.35.3
    Emerging and Developing Economies7.69.26.411.916.911.910.412.68.4−9.314.910.2
    Fuel Exporters3.110.39.610.815.416.511.922.115.1−10.97.18.9
    Nonfuel Exporters8.99.05.812.117.211.010.110.56.8−8.916.810.5
    Price Deflators in SDRs
    Exports
    Advanced Economies−0.81.8−1.21.72.43.64.32.85.0−6.66.00.9
    Emerging and Developing Economies1.75.1−0.21.17.414.212.25.513.7−13.611.42.7
    Fuel Exporters2.88.90.74.317.332.418.87.725.8−27.620.02.9
    Nonfuel Exporters1.33.6−0.50.14.07.59.44.58.5−6.98.12.6
    Imports
    Advanced Economies−0.91.8−2.10.62.85.45.82.57.4−10.25.80.9
    Emerging and Developing Economies1.63.5−0.9−0.34.07.48.55.110.0−9.510.12.2
    Fuel Exporters0.73.40.2−0.14.27.58.74.88.1−7.37.80.7
    Nonfuel Exporters1.73.5−1.1−0.44.07.48.45.210.4−10.010.62.6
    Terms of trade
    Advanced Economies0.10.00.91.1−0.4−1.7−1.40.3−2.34.00.20.0
    Emerging and Developing Economies0.11.60.71.53.36.33.40.43.3−4.61.20.5
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe−0.6−0.10.40.91.1−0.1−1.61.3−2.53.4−3.2−0.4
    Commonwealth of Independent States3−0.14.4−1.78.812.214.99.32.315.0−20.67.11.6
    Developing Asia−0.3−0.70.7−0.6−1.9−1.4−1.0−2.0−3.15.3−2.90.5
    Latin America and the Caribbean0.02.31.73.15.65.48.52.43.1−4.6−1.2−0.8
    Middle East and North Africa1.74.40.31.89.322.75.61.213.5−17.510.81.4
    Sub-Saharan Africa−0.14.12.72.15.312.99.43.59.7−12.49.41.1
    Analytical Groups
    By Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel Exporters2.15.40.54.412.523.29.32.716.4−21.911.32.2
    Nonfuel Exporters−0.40.10.60.50.00.10.9−0.6−1.83.4−2.30.0
    Memorandum
    World Exports in Billions of U.S. Dollars
    Goods and Services6,42014,7498,0209,34211,33212,88914,85717,28319,73315,74618,33419,955
    Goods5,12211,7906,3827,4609,05410,34711,97813,82715,85312,32114,66916,012
    Average Oil Price42.312.52.515.830.741.320.510.736.4−36.323.33.3
    In U.S. Dollars a Barrel19.2259.4124.9528.8937.7653.3564.2771.1397.0361.7876.2078.75
    Export Unit Value of Manufactures5−1.03.2−1.913.35.82.52.65.96.7−6.13.11.4

    Average of annual percent change for world exports and imports.

    As represented, respectively, by the export unit value index for manufactures of the advanced economies and accounting for 83 percent of the advanced economies’ trade (export of goods) weights; the average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices; and the average of world market prices for nonfuel primary commodities weighted by their 2002–04 shares in world commodity exports.

    Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices.

    For manufactures exported by the advanced economies.

    Table A10.Summary of Balances on Current Account(Billions of U.S. dollars)
    Projections
    20022003200420052006200720082009201020112015
    Advanced Economies–216.3–218.4–219.9–409.7–453.0–343.5–492.6–122.6–110.1–28.6–274.4
    United States−458.1−520.7−630.5−747.6−802.6−718.1−668.9−378.4−466.5−400.4−601.7
    Euro Area143.423.676.614.6−12.618.6−226.4−77.921.357.222.5
    Japan112.6136.2172.1165.7170.4211.0157.1141.8166.5133.3121.5
    Other Advanced Economies283.3125.3123.2127.5133.5116.9120.0164.8168.7181.3183.3
    Memorandum
    Newly Industrialized Asian economies55.980.882.979.589.7113.786.8136.2132.1137.1150.7
    Emerging and Developing Economies
    Regional Groups79.9145.4219.6444.5662.8654.3703.4339.1312.3325.2763.8
    Central and Eastern Europe−20.1−33.3−53.4−59.8−87.4−132.9−153.0−40.2−64.7−73.8−112.3
    Commonwealth of Independent States330.335.763.587.596.371.7107.742.474.665.345.2
    Developing Asia67.185.092.9167.5289.2418.3435.6321.7273.2308.1731.2
    Latin America and the Caribbean−16.29.221.436.749.815.1−28.9−21.9−56.6−80.2−109.8
    Middle East and North Africa31.360.9103.2215.3284.1272.3343.552.397.1127.1234.5
    Sub-Saharan Africa−12.4−12.2−8.0−2.830.89.7−1.5−15.1−11.3−21.4−24.9
    Memorandum
    European Union16.515.364.5−10.5−44.6−66.9−189.5−48.7−11.123.3−0.2
    Analytical Groups
    By Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel60.5104.9185.9351.9479.4434.9587.3156.3262.9288.3381.3
    Nonfuel19.540.533.792.6183.4219.4116.0182.849.436.9382.4
    Of Which, Primary Products−4.4−4.4−0.9−1.89.36.5−13.6−3.0−12.6−18.2−18.2
    By External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Economies−36.8−32.4−57.3−96.5−118.3−213.6−363.5−176.0−265.8−330.0−426.3
    Of Which, Official Financing−4.8−7.1−6.2−9.0−10.2−12.7−24.8−15.9−20.1−25.1−26.4
    Net Debtor Economies by Debt-Servicing Experience
    Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling during 2004–082.42.7−5.9−7.7−5.6−18.0−32.5−30.2−31.7−39.9−39.5
    World1–136.4–73.0–0.234.8209.8310.8210.7216.6202.3296.6489.4
    Memorandum
    In Percent of Total World Current Account Transactions−0.8−0.40.00.10.70.90.50.70.60.70.9
    In Percent of World GDP−0.4−0.20.00.10.40.60.30.40.30.50.6

    Reflects errors, omissions, and asymmetries in balance of payments statistics on the current account, as well as the exclusion of data for international organizations and a limited number of countries. Calculated as the sum of the balances of individual Euro Area countries. See “Classification of Countries” in the introduction to this Statistical Appendix.

    In this table, Other Advanced Economies means Advanced Economies excluding the United States, Euro Area countries, and Japan.

    Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Table A11.Advanced Economies: Balance on Current Account(Percent of GDP)
    Projections
    20022003200420052006200720082009201020112015
    Advanced Economies–0.8–0.7–0.7–1.2–1.2–0.9–1.2–0.3–0.3–0.1–0.6
    United States−4.3−4.7−5.3−5.9−6.0−5.1−4.7−2.7−3.2−2.6−3.3
    Euro Area10.70.51.20.40.40.4−0.7−0.40.20.50.2
    Germany2.01.94.75.16.57.66.74.96.15.83.9
    France1.20.70.5−0.5−0.6−1.0−1.9−1.9−1.8−1.8−1.8
    Italy−0.8−1.3−0.9−1.7−2.6−2.4−3.4−3.2−2.9−2.7−2.4
    Spain−3.3−3.5−5.3−7.4−9.0−10.0−9.7−5.5−5.2−4.8−4.3
    Netherlands2.55.57.57.39.38.64.85.45.76.86.3
    Belgium4.64.13.52.62.01.6−2.90.30.51.84.1
    Greece−6.5−6.6−5.8−7.3−11.3−14.4−14.6−11.2−10.8−7.7−4.0
    Austria2.71.72.22.22.83.53.32.32.32.42.3
    Portugal−7.7−5.8−7.2−9.1−9.6−9.0−11.6−10.0−10.0−9.2−8.4
    Finland8.54.86.23.44.24.33.11.31.41.61.7
    Ireland−1.00.0−0.6−3.5−3.6−5.3−5.2−3.0−2.7−1.1−1.2
    Slovak Republic−7.9−5.9−7.8−8.5−7.8−5.3−6.6−3.2−1.4−2.6−2.3
    Slovenia1.1−0.8−2.7−1.7−2.5−4.8−6.7−1.5−0.7−0.7−1.0
    Luxembourg10.58.111.911.010.39.75.35.76.97.28.5
    Cyprus−3.8−2.3−5.0−5.9−7.0−11.7−17.5−8.3−7.9−7.4−6.1
    Malta2.5−3.1−6.0−8.8−9.2−6.2−5.6−6.1−5.4−5.3−4.5
    Japan2.93.23.73.63.94.83.22.83.12.31.9
    United Kingdom−1.7−1.6−2.1−2.6−3.4−2.6−1.6−1.1−2.2−2.0−1.1
    Canada1.71.22.31.91.40.80.4−2.8−2.8−2.7−1.8
    Korea0.91.93.91.80.60.6−0.65.12.62.92.0
    Australia−3.6−5.2−6.0−5.7−5.3−6.2−4.5−4.4−2.4−2.3−6.0
    Taiwan Province of China8.89.85.84.87.08.96.811.310.09.58.6
    Sweden5.07.16.76.98.58.47.67.25.95.76.2
    Switzerland8.813.313.414.015.19.02.08.59.610.311.3
    Hong Kong SAR7.610.49.511.412.112.313.68.78.38.39.0
    Czech Republic−5.7−6.3−5.3−1.3−2.5−3.3−0.6−1.1−1.2−0.6−0.3
    Norway12.612.312.716.317.214.117.913.116.616.415.8
    Singapore12.922.817.121.324.226.718.517.820.518.414.1
    Denmark2.73.73.34.13.11.61.94.23.43.02.5
    Israel−1.10.61.83.15.12.90.73.86.25.74.5
    New Zealand−3.9−4.2−6.2−8.3−8.4−8.0−8.6−3.0−3.2−4.4−6.6
    Iceland1.6−4.8−9.8−16.1−25.6−16.3−26.0−6.5−0.92.1−0.4
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies−1.4−1.5−1.4−1.9−2.0−1.3−1.4−0.8−0.9−0.8−1.3
    Euro Area20.60.30.80.1−0.10.2−1.7−0.60.20.50.2
    Newly Industrialized Asian Economies4.96.76.25.35.46.25.08.57.16.95.8

    Calculated as the sum of the balances of individual Euro Area countries.

    Corrected for reporting discrepancies in intra-area transactions.

    Table A12.Emerging and Developing Economies: Balance on Current Account(Percent of GDP)
    Projections
    20022003200420052006200720082009201020112015
    Central and Eastern Europe–3.1–4.2–5.4–5.1–6.6–8.0–7.9–2.5–3.7–4.0–4.6
    Albania−7.2−5.0−4.0−6.1−5.6−10.4−15.2−14.0−9.2−8.9−4.9
    Bosnia and Herzegovina−17.8−19.4−16.4−17.2−8.0−10.7−14.5−6.9−5.5−5.5−5.0
    Bulgaria−2.4−5.5−6.6−12.4−18.4−26.9−24.2−9.5−3.0−3.1−4.0
    Croatia−7.5−5.3−4.4−5.5−6.9−7.6−9.2−5.3−3.8−4.7−6.4
    Estonia−10.6−11.3−11.3−10.0−15.3−17.2−9.74.54.23.4−4.0
    Hungary−7.0−8.0−8.4−7.2−7.1−6.5−7.10.20.50.7−1.8
    Kosovo−6.7−8.1−8.3−7.4−6.7−8.8−16.0−18.6−18.5−18.2−11.5
    Latvia−6.6−8.1−12.9−12.5−22.5−22.3−13.18.65.52.9−2.5
    Lithuania−5.2−6.9−7.6