Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
May 1997
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    Annex Globalization in Historical Perspective

    The post-World War II phenomenon of globalization—the increasingly close international integration of markets both for goods and services, and for capital—may in many ways be viewed as a resumption of a trend observed in the world economy a century ago. By some measures, international economic integration increased just as much in the 50 years before World War I as in recent decades, and reached comparable levels. Then, as now, integration was driven in large part by the proliferation of markets and rapid technological change. The process was interrupted and reversed from 1914 to after World War II.

    The process observed before 1914 could hardly be called “globalization,” however, since large parts of the world did not participate and also because the speed of transport and communication was such that it was much less feasible than it is today to organize markets, or to operate firms, at the global level. Furthermore, international financial markets today are characterized by much larger gross flows, with a much larger variety of financial instruments being traded across borders. Nevertheless, the trends we have been observing in recent decades are in a sense taking us back to the future.

    International Trade

    The period from the mid-nineteenth century to World War I exhibited relatively rapid growth in world trade, as the expansion of exports (3.5 percent a year) significantly outpaced that of real output (2.7 percent a year). The share of exports in world output reached a peak in 1913 not surpassed until 1970.1 Growth in trade occurred partly as a consequence of reduced tariffs (Chart 46) and greatly reduced transportation costs, reflecting the proliferation of railroads and steamships.2 The period also witnessed a marked convergence of commodity prices across countries.3

    Chart 46.Advanced Economies: Effective Tariff Rates

    (In percent)

    Sources: Brian Mitchell, International Historical Statistics: Europe, 1750–1988 (Houndmills, Basingstoke, England: Macmillan, 3rd ed., 1992); Angus Maddison. Dynamic Forces in Capitalist Development: A Long-Run Comparative View (Oxford: Oxford university Press, 1991).

    Notes: Effective tarriff rates are calculated as the ratio of customs revenues to the value of total imports. Data are GDP-weighted averages for the following countries: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United Stales.

    The process of trade liberalization in Europe began with Britain’s unilateral movement to free trade with the Abolition of the Corn Laws in 1846.4 It spread to other countries with the Cobden Chevalier Treaty of 1860 between Britain and France. This Treaty, in addition to reducing French tariff rates, incorporated a most-favored-nation (MFN) clause in which each contracting party agreed to extend to the other any reduction in tariff rates it introduced vis-à-vis a third party. Because France reduced its tariff rates only with Britain, this gave other trading partners an incentive to sign similar treaties with it. Within the next two decades virtually all of Europe reduced tariffs (to the 10–15 percent range from above 35 percent) in a series of bilateral agreements with MFN clauses.5

    Combined with the fact that non tariff barriers were of secondary importance and foreign exchange transactions were not controlled under the classical gold standard that prevailed before 1914, the network of bilateral commercial treaties constituted, de facto, a liberal multilateral trade regime. However, the system suffered from two drawbacks: it did not guarantee tariff reductions, and the treaties were subject to renegotiation upon expiry. These two defects were rectified in the multilateral arrangements instituted after World War II.6 Although the liberalization process was reversed after 1879 with the institution of tariffs by Germany and then other countries, the level of effective protection (with the principal exception of the United States) remained low by twentieth century standards until 1914.7

    The outbreak of World War I led to a series of quantitative restrictions on trade by the belligerents. After the war, many countries reduced their restrictions but substituted tariffs instead. A renewed movement toward liberalization under the Gold Exchange Standard (1925–31) ended with the Great Depression. In the face of plummeting agricultural prices a number of countries raised tariffs in 1929. In June 1930, the United States passed the Smoot-Hawley tariff, which raised duties on imports by 23 percent; most countries retaliated. In addition to tariffs, countries instituted quantitative restrictions and other trade barriers in an attempt to stimulate their economies.

    In the face of deflation, some countries—the United Kingdom and the sterling area and the United States—left the gold standard, devalued their currencies, and pursued expansionary policies; others (the gold bloc—France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland) stayed on gold but raised tariffs, A third group—Germany, Austria, and other central European countries—used exchange controls to create a series of bilateral (barter) trade agreements. As a result of these obstacles, world trade plummeted even faster than real output. By the mid-1930s, tariff protection was reduced somewhat following the U.S. Reciprocal Trade Agreement Act of 1934, under which the United States negotiated a series of bilateral agreements.

    After World War II, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was created by the international community, along with the IMF, the World Bank, and other international organizations. Based on the principles of multilateral cooperation, the GATT had a mandate to roll back tariffs from their prewar peaks and to continue reducing them in the future. The GATT was extremely successful in 1947 in the first Geneva Round in reducing tariffs by 35 percent. Successive rounds in the 1950s, 1960s (the Kennedy Round), and the 1970s (Tokyo Round) and the recent Uruguay Round have virtually eliminated tariffs on manufactured goods. The World Trade Organization (WTO), which succeeded GATT in 1994, is currently engaged in reducing non tariff barriers and protection, including in areas not covered by the GATT.8

    Capital Market Integration

    In the 50 years before World War I, there was a massive flow of capital from the core countries of western Europe to the rapidly developing economies of the Americas, Australia, and elsewhere. At its peak, the net capital outflow from Britain represented 9 percent of GNP and was almost as high from France, Germany, and the Netherlands.9 This compares with the peaks in Japan’s and Germany’s current account surpluses in the mid- and late 1980s of 4–5 percent of GDP. Before World War I, private capital moved without restrictions. Much of it flowed into bonds financing railroads and other infrastructure in the new world and into long-term government debt, although there also was substantial foreign direct investment. The extent of net capital flows is illustrated in Chart 47, which shows a five-year moving average of the mean absolute value of the ratio of the current account balance to GDP for 12 countries, and Chart 48. which shows the current account balances for one large capital exporter (the United Kingdom), one large capital importer (Canada), and a country with smaller imbalances (the United States).10 Evidence of tight capital market integration from 1850 to 1913 is also provided by low and declining onshore and offshore interest differentials between the United Kingdom and the United States, and by the low dispersion of real rates of interest (Chart 49).11

    Chart 47.Selected Countries: External Capital Flows1

    (In percent af GDP; five-year moving average)

    1 Five-year moving average of the mean absolute value of the ratio of the current account balance to GDP for Argentina, Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

    Chart 48.Selected Major Industrial Countries: Current Account Balances

    (In percent of GDP; five-year moving averages)

    1 Five-year averages for the Uniled States, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Sweden. Data prior to 1955 exclude Germany and prior to 1911 exclude France, Italy, and Sweden.

    Free capital mobility before 1914 was closely related to the fact that much of the world was on the gold standard, the key role of which was to maintain convertibility of national currencies into gold. A credible commitment to gold in turn meant that monetary policy could not be used extensively to stabilize the domestic economy in the event of either internal or external shocks.12 The credibility of the commitment to gold by the core countries was reinforced by stabilizing flows of short-term capital, and, in turn, long-term capital flowed from the core to peripheral countries adhering to gold because adherence to gold served us “a good-housekeeping seal of approval”—as evidence that countries followed standards of financial probity.13

    International capital markets disintegrated from the outset of World War I until the mid-1960s, as can be seen in Charts 47 and 49. With the outbreak of World War I, the gold standard was suspended by the belligerents, and capital and exchange controls were imposed. After the war, controls were removed and the reinstated gold standard was characterized by virtually free capital mobility. However, the Gold Exchange Standard was not as credible or viable as the prewar standard, and countries following macroeconomic policies inconsistent with maintaining gold convertibility became subject to destabilizing capital flows. With the onset of the Great Depression, many countries imposed extensive and increasingly binding capital controls in an attempt to use monetary and fiscal policy to insulate themselves from deflation and depression. By the eve of World War II, capital flows had dried up.

    After the war, the international monetary system created at Bretton Woods in 1944 attached the highest importance to restoring multilateral payments and current account convertibility, but enshrined restrictions on capital movements as a key element of the adjustable peg system. Based on the perception that floating exchange rates in the interwar period had been excessively volatile and subject to destabilizing speculation,14 and on their own experience of those years, it was the view of the principal architects of the Bretton Woods system. John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White, that resort to capital controls had to be allowed if, with fixed (though adjustable) parities, domestic stabilization policy was to be used to maintain full employment.

    Once current account convertibility was achieved by the major European countries by 1959 (even though the obligations of the IMF’s Article VIII were not formally accepted until early 1961), the currencies of countries following policies inconsistent with the maintenance of their parities were subject to speculative attacks as private agents devised ways to circumvent capital controls.15 As the Bretton Woods system became more fragile and U.S. gold reserves were threatened, the United States began imposing restrictions on capital outflows in 1965. Despite the attempt to quell speculation, the Bretton Woods system collapsed in August 1971 and the world shifted to a floating exchange rate regime among the major currencies in 1973.16

    Within a decade, major countries dismantled their capital controls—the United Slates and Germany by 1974–75, the United Kingdom by 1979, Japan largely by 1980, and the rest of Europe by the end of the 1980s. Policymakers came to appreciate that with floating exchange rates, capital mobility was not incompatible with independent monetary policy conducted to stabilize domestic economic activity. Also in the past decade or so a number of developing countries have also opened up their capital accounts, extending the geographical limits of capital market integration beyond those prevailing in the pre-1914 period, The decline in the dispersion of real interest rates for select countries also suggests (Chart 49) that the world has been moving back to a regime of more tightly linked capital markets. This time, however, capital market integration is characterized by much larger gross flows, though not by larger net flows, than in the pre-1914 era.

    Chart 49.Selected Countries: Dispersion of Real Interest Rates1

    (In percent)

    1 Five-year averages for the United States, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Sweden. Data prior to 1955 exclude Germany and prior to 1911 exclude France, Italy, and Sweden.

    Goods and capital market integration before 1914, combined with a high degree of labor mobility, led to considerable convergence in living standards among the industrial countries.17 Not all segments of society, however, gained from greater integration and openness. Thus, trade liberalization in the nineteenth century induced a political reaction by those harmed by reduced protection, leading to calls to raise tariffs. At the same time, reductions in the rate of growth of real wages in countries with massive immigration before 1914 led to sharp restrictions on the movement of people.

    Free capital mobility was incompatible with monetary policy independence under the interwar gold standard and was jettisoned in the face of depression. Even today under floating rates, capital mobility can create difficulties, not only for countries following inconsistent policies, but also for countries with sound fundamentals that may experience large-scale capital inflows and associated overheating pressures as witnessed in many emerging market countries in recent years. Such difficulties have led some to call for restrictions on the free movement of capital. For developing countries and economies in transition, fully opening the capital account is likely to take some time and will need to be preceded by adequate progress in liberalizing the domestic economy and establishing a sound banking system. However, for advanced economies whose capital markets are already highly integrated, the costs of retreating from integration would today be considerably higher than in the past. In capital markets, new technologies have created a vast network of interlocking arrangements within and between firms as well as new international financial instruments and new markets. Also, international deregulation has occurred hand in hand with deregulation in domestic financial markets. Attempts to restrict international capital mobility would not only increase the costs of financial intermediation but would likely prove futile. In goods markets, extensive integration at the firm level of multinational sources of supply and production processes, as well as the spread of multinational corporations, makes it more difficult to erect trade barriers. These factors are recognized by policymakers across the world. The lessons from history suggest that globalization, although driven in large part by technological advances, is not simply a product of technical forces. Policies too have a major role to play by fostering and maintaining open trade and payments arrangements.

    Statistical Appendix

    The statistical appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises four sections: Assumptions, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables.

    The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 1997–98 and the medium-term scenario for 1999–2002 are summarized in the first section. The following section provides a general description of the data, and the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the third section. With this issue of the World Economic Outlook, Israel and four newly industrialized Asian economies have been added to the industrial country group, which in its expanded form appears with the new label “advanced economies.”

    The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available at the end of March 1997. The figures for 1997 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures, solely for convenience; since they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

    Assumptions

    Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during March 13–18, 1997, except that the bilateral exchange rates among the ERM currencies are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms. For 1997 and 1998, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.380 and 1.374, respectively.

    Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected advanced economies are described in Box 2.

    It is assumed that the price of oil will average $19.69 a barrel in 1997 and $18.36 a barrel in 1998. In the medium term, the oil price is assumed to remain unchanged in real terms.

    With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 6.0 percent in 1997 and 6.1 percent in 1998; that the three-month certificate of deposit rate in Japan will average 0.6 percent in 1997 and 2.0 percent in 1998; and that the three-month interbank deposit rate in Germany will average 3.3 percent in 1997 and 3.9 percent in 1998.

    Data and Conventions

    Data and projections for 181 countries form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook (the World Economic Outlook database). The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and area departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

    Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the national compilation of statistics, including the analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The World Economic Outlook database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

    The completion in 1993 of the comprehensive revision of the standardized System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA) and the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM) represented important improvements in the standards of economic statistics and analysis.1 The IMF was actively involved in both projects, particularly the new Balance of Payments Manual, which reflects the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions. Key changes introduced with the new Manual were summarized in Box 13 of the May 1994 World Economic Outlook, The process of adapting country balance of payments data to the definitions of the new Balance of Payments Manual began with the May 1995 World Economic Outlook. However, full concordance with the BPM is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, and hence the World Economic Outlook estimates are still only partly adapted to the BPM.

    Composite data for country groups in the World Economic outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the developing and transition country groups, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply.

    • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and the growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP convened to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of world or group GDP.

    • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities (PPPs) as a share of total world or group GDP.2

    • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

    • Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data, and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

    For central and eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies (through 1990) are converted to U.S. dollars at the implicit U.S. dollar/ruble conversion rates obtained from each country’s national currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and for the ruble.

    Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.

    Classification of Countries

    Advanced Economies: An Expanded Industrial Country Group

    Beginning with this World Economic Outlook, Israel and four newly industrialized economies in Asia—Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China—are added to the group of countries traditionally known as industrial countries. The expanded group is referred to as “advanced economies.” To preserve a degree of continuity, the industrial country group, as previously defined, is, where relevant, shown as a memorandum item to the group of advanced economies.

    This reclassification of five economies, previously classified among the developing countries, reflects their rapid economic development and the fact that they all now share a number of important characteristics with the industrial countries, including relatively high income levels (comfortably within the range of those in the industrial country group), well-developed financial markets and high degrees of financial intermediation, and diversified economic structures with rapidly growing service sectors. The expanded group is labeled advanced economies in recognition of the declining share of employment in manufacturing common to all members of the group.

    Summary of the Country Classification

    As before, the country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into three major groups: advanced economies, developing countries, and countries in transition.3 Rather than being based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, this classification has evolved over time with the objective of facilitating analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful organization of data. A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members, and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been compiled. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, whereas San Marino, among the advanced economies, and Brunei Darussalam and Eritrea, among the developing countries, are examples of economies for which databases have not been completed. It should also be noted that, owing to lack of data, only three of the former republics of the dissolved Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Slovenia) are included in the group composites for countries in transition.

    Each of the three main country groups is further divided into a number of subgroups. Among the advanced economies, the seven largest in terms of GDP, collectively referred to as the major industrial countries, are distinguished as a subgroup, and so are the 15 current members of the European Union and the four newly industrialized Asian economies. The developing countries are classified by region, as well as into a number of analytical and other groups. A regional breakdown is also used for the classification of the countries in transition. Table A provides an overview of these standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average 1996 shares of groups in aggregate PPP-valued GDP, total exports of goods and services, and total external debt.

    Table A.Classification by Standard World Economic Outlook Groups and Their 1996 Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Total External Debt1(In percent of total for group or world)
    Number of

    Countries
    GDPExports of

    Goods and Services
    External

    Debt
    Share of total for
    Advanced

    economies
    WorldAdvanced

    economies
    World
    Advanced economies28100.056.6100.078.6
    Major industrial countries780.245.462.048.7
    United States36.520.716.312.8
    Japan14.28.09.17.2
    Germany8.34.712.09.4
    France6.33.57.35.7
    Italy5.83.36.45.0
    United Kingdom5.83.36.55.1
    Canada3.31.94.43.4
    Other advanced economies2119.811.238.029.9
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries (former definition)2393.653.086.567.9
    European Union1536.020.451.440.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies45.93.413.010.2
    Developing

    countries
    WorldDeveloping

    countries
    WorldDeveloping

    countries
    Developing countries127100.039.2100.017.3100.0
    Regional groups
    Africa508.63.411.31.916.1
    Sub-Sahara476.22.48.51.512.5
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa453.71.54.20.79.4
    Asia2657.322.542,77.331.6
    Excluding China and India2418.57.325.34.320.3
    Middle East and Europe1711.74.621.73.715.4
    Western Hemisphere3422.48.824.34.236.9
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel1610.03.920.83.613.0
    Nonfuel11190.035.279.213.687.0
    Manufactures654.321.337.26.431.9
    Primary products405.12.06.41.111.7
    Services, income, and private transfers393.81.54.70.85.4
    Diversified2626.810.530.95.337.9
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries62.91.112.42.10.9
    Net debtor countries12197.138.087.615.099.1
    Official financing639.63.88.51.515.5
    Private financing3463.825.061.510.657.4
    Diversified financing2423.79.317.93.026.1
    Net debtor countries by debt-

    servicing experience
    Countries with recent difficulties6527.410.726.84.649.8
    Countries without recent difficulties5669.727.360.810.449.3
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries404.21.64.30.711.4
    Least developed countries464.51.72,70.57.9
    Middle East and north Africa (MENA)2111.74.620.33.515.7
    Countries in

    transition
    WorldCountries in

    transition
    WorldCountries in

    transition
    Countries in transition28100.04.2100.04.2100.0
    Central and eastern Europe1857.12.458.02.550.5
    Excluding Belarus and Ukraine1646.41.949.32.146.5
    Russia33.81.435.51.545.7
    Transcaucasus and central Asia99.10.46.50.33.9
    1

    The GDP shares are based on the purchasing power parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs.

    General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classifícation

    Advanced Economies

    The composition of advanced economies (28 countries) is shown in Table B. The seven largest countries in this group in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major industrial countries, often referred to as the G-7 countries. The current members of the European Union (15 countries) and the newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables under the heading “European Union” cover the current 15 members of the European Union for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

    Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup
    European UnionNewly Industrialized

    Asian Economies
    Other

    Countries
    Major industrial countries
    FranceCanada
    GermanyJapan
    ItalyUnited States
    United Kingdom
    Other advanced economies
    AustriaLuxembourgHong KongAustralia
    BelgiumNetherlandsKoreaIceland
    DenmarkPortugalSingaporeIsrael
    FinlandSpainTaiwan Province ofNew Zealand
    GreeceSwedenChinaNorway
    IrelandSwitzerland

    In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the eastern Lander (i.e., the former German Democratic Republic). Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. Hence, in tables featuring data expressed as annual percent change, these apply to west Germany in years up to and including 1991, but to unified Germany from 1992 onward. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

    Developing Countries

    The group of developing countries (127 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as advanced economies or as countries in transition, together with a few dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.

    The regional breakdowns of developing countries in the World Economic Outlook conform to the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) classification—Africa, Asia. Europe, Middle East, and Western Hemisphere—with one important exception. Because all of the developing countries in Europe except Cyprus, Malta, and Turkey are included in the group of countries in transition, the World Economic Outlook classification places these three countries in a combined Middle East and Europe region. It should also be noted that in both classifications, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in this region, not in Africa. Three additional regional groupings—two of them constituting part of Africa and one a subgroup of Asia—-are included in the World Economic Outlook because of their analytical significance, These are Sub-Sahara, Sub-Sahara excluding Nigeria and South Africa, and Asia excluding China and India.

    The developing countries are also classified according to analytical criteria and into other groups. The analytical criteria reflect countries’ composition of export earnings and other income from abroad, a distinction between net creditor and net debtor countries, and, for the net debtor countries, financial criteria based on external financing source and experience with external debt servicing. Included as “other groups” are currently the heavily indebted poor countries, the least developed countries, and Middle East and north Africa. The detailed composition of developing countries in the regional, analytical, and other groups is shown in Tables C through E.

    Table C.Developing Countries by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
    FuelManufacturesPrimary ProductsServices, Factor

    Income, and

    Private Transfers
    Diversified

    Source of

    Export Earnings
    Africa
    Sub-SaharaAngolaBotswanaBeninCameroon
    CongoBurundiBurkina FasoKenya
    GabonCentral AfricanCape VerdeMauritius
    NigeriaRepublicComorosSenegal
    ChadDjiboutiSierra Leone
    Côte d’IvoireGambia, TheSouth Africa
    Equatorial GuineaLesotho
    EthiopiaMozambique,
    GhanaRepublic of
    GuineaSeychelles
    Guinea-Bissau
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Namibia
    Niger
    Rwanda
    São Tomé and

    Prìncipe
    Somalia
    Sudan
    Swaziland
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Uganda
    Zaïre
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    North AfricaAlgeriaMorocco

    Tunisia
    Asia
    ChinaCambodiaBhutanAfghanistan,
    IndiaMyanmarFijiIslamic State of
    MalaysiaPapua New GuineaKiribatiBangladesh
    PakistanSolomon IslandsMaldivesIndonesia
    ThailandVietnamMarshall IslandsLao People’s
    Micronesia,Democratic
    Federated States ofRepublic
    NepalPhilippines
    TongaSri Lanka
    Vanuatu
    Western Samoa
    Middle East and Europe
    BahrainCyprusMalta
    Iran, IslamicEgyptSyrian Arab
    Republic ofJordanRepublic
    IraqLebanonTurkey
    KuwaitYemen, Republic of
    Libya
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    United Arab
    Emirates
    Western Hemisphere
    Trinidad andBrazilBoliviaAntigua andArgentina
    TobagoChileBarbudaColombia
    VenezuelaGuyanaArubaCosta Rica
    HondurasBahamas, TheDominica
    NicaraguaBarbadosEcuador
    PeruBelizeGuatemala
    SurinameDominican RepublicMexico
    El SalvadorNetherlands
    GrenadaAntilles
    HaitiUruguay
    Jamaica
    Panama
    Paraguay
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    St. Lucia
    St. Vincent and the
    Grenadines

    The first analytical criterion, by source of export earnings, distinguishes among five categories: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3); manufactures (SITC 5 to 9, less 68); nonfuel primary products (SITC 0,1,2,4, and 68); services, factor income, and private transfers (exporters of services and recipients of income from abroad, including workers’ remittances); and diversified export earnings. Countries whose 1990–93 export earnings in any of the first four of these categories accounted for more than half of total export earnings are allocated to that group, while countries whose export earnings were not dominated by any one of these categories are classified as countries with diversified export earnings (see Table C for listing of countries).

    The financial criteria first distinguish between net creditor and net debtor countries. Net creditor countries are defined as developing countries with positive net external assets at the end of 1995.4 Countries in the much larger net debtor group are differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by main source of external financing and by experience with debt servicing during the 1991–95 period.5

    Within the classification main source of external financing, three subgroups, based on country estimates of the composition of external financing, are identified: countries relying largely on official financing, countries relying largely on private financing, and countries with diversified financing sources. Net debtor countries are allocated to the first two of these subgroups according to whether their official financing, including official grants, or their private financing, including direct and portfolio investment, accounted for more than two-thirds of their total 1991–95 external financing. Countries that do not meet any of these two criteria are classified as countries with diversified financing source (see Table D for listing of countries).

    Table D.Developing Countries by Region and Main External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Countries
    By main external financing source
    Net Creditor

    Countries
    Official

    financing
    Private

    financing
    Diversified

    financing
    Africa
    Sub-Sahara
    Angola
    Benin
    Botswanai
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cameroon
    Cape Verde
    Central African Republic
    Chad
    Comoros
    Congo
    Côte d’Ivoire
    Djibouti
    Equatorial Guinea
    Ethiopia
    Gabon
    Gambia, The
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Kenya
    Lesotho
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Mauritius
    Mozambique, Republic of
    Namibia
    Niger
    Nigeria
    Rwanda
    São Tomé and Prìncipe
    Senegal
    Seychelles
    Sierra Leone
    Somalia
    South Africa
    Sudan
    Swaziland
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Uganda
    Zaïre
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    North Africa
    Algeria
    Morocco
    Tunisia
    Asia
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh
    Bhutan
    Cambodia
    China
    Fiji
    India
    Indonesia
    Kiribati
    Lao People’s Democratic Republic
    Malaysia
    Maldives
    Marshall Islands
    Micronesia, Federated States of
    Myanmar
    Nepal
    Pakistan
    Papua New Guinea
    Philippines
    Solomon Islands
    Sri Lanka
    Thailand
    Tonga
    Vanuatu
    Vietnam
    Western Samoa
    Middle East and Europe
    Bahrain
    Cyprus
    Egypt
    Iran, Islamic Republic of
    Iraq
    Jordan
    Kuwait
    Lebanon
    Libya
    Malta
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Syrian Arab Republic
    Turkey
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen. Republic of
    Western Hemisphere
    Antigua and Barbuda
    Argentina
    Aruba
    Bahamas, The
    Barbados
    Belize
    Bolivia
    Brazil
    Chile
    Colombia
    Costa Rica
    Dominica
    Dominican Republic
    Ecuador
    El Salvador
    Grenada
    Geuatemala
    Guyana
    Haiti
    Honduras
    Jamaica
    Mexico
    Netherlands Antilles
    Nicaragua
    Panama
    Paraguay
    Peru
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    St. Lucia
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines
    Suriname
    Trinidad and Tobago
    Uruguay
    Venezuela

    The other groups of developing countries (listed in Table E) constitute the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC), the least developed countries, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa (MENA). The first group comprises 40 of the countries (all except Nigeria) considered by the IMF and the World Bank for their debt initiative, known as the HIPC Initiative,6 The group of least developed countries comprises 46 of the 47 developing countries classified as “least developed” by the United Nations (Tuvalu, not being an IMF member, is excluded). Finally, Middle East and north Africa, also referred to as the “MENA countries” is a new World Economic Outlook group, whose composition straddles the Africa and Middle East and Europe regions. It is defined as the Arab League countries plus the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    Table EOther Developing Country Groups
    Heavily Indebted

    Poor Countries
    Least Developed

    Countries
    Middle East and

    North Africa
    Africa
    Sub-Sahara
    Angola
    Benin
    Botswana
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cameroon
    Cape Verde
    Central African Republic
    Chad
    Comoros
    Congo
    Côte d’Ivoire
    Djibouti
    Equatorial Guinea
    Ethiopia
    Gambia. The
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Kenya
    Lesotho
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Mozambique. Republic of
    Niger
    Rwanda
    São Tomé and Prìncipe
    Senegal
    Sierra Leone
    Somalia
    Sudan
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Uganda
    Zaïre
    Zambia
    North Africa
    Algeria
    Morocco
    Tunisia
    Asia
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh
    Bhutan
    Cambodia
    Kiribati
    Lao People’s Democratic Republic
    Maldives
    Myamer
    Nepal
    Solomon Islands
    Vanuatu
    Vietnam
    Western Samoa
    Middle East and Europe
    Bahrain
    Egypt
    Iran, Islamic Republic of
    Iraq
    Jordan
    Kuwait
    Lebanon
    Libya
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Syrian Arab Republic
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen. Republic of
    Western Hemisphere
    Bolivia
    Guyana
    Haiti
    Honduras
    Nicaragua

    Countries in Transition

    The group of countries in transition (28 countries) comprises central and eastern European countries (including the Baltic countries), Russia, the other states of the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia. The transition country group is divided into three regional subgroups: central and eastern Europe, Russia, and Transcaucasus and central Asia. The detailed country composition is shown in Table F.

    Table F.Countries in Transition by Region
    Central and Eastern EuropeRussiaTranscaucasus

    and Central Asia
    AlbaniaLithuaniaRussiaArmenia
    BelarusMacedonia, former Yugoslav Republic ofAzerbaijan
    Bosnia and HerzegovinaMoldovaGeoTgia
    BulgariaPolandKazakstan
    CroatiaRomaniaKyrgyz Republic
    Czech RepublicSlovak RepublicMongolia
    EstoniaSloveniaTajikistan
    HungaryUkraineTurkmenistan
    LatviaYugoslavia, Federal Republic ofUzbekistan

    One common characteristic of these countries is the transitional state of their economies from a centrally administered system to one based on market principles. Another is that this transition involves the transformation of sizable industrial sectors whose capital stocks have proven largely obsolete. Although several other countries are also “in transition” from partially command-based economic systems toward market-based systems (including China, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Vietnam, and a number of African countries), most of these are largely rural, low-income economies for whom the principal challenge is one of economic development. These countries are therefore classified in the developing country group rather than in the group of countries in transition.

    List of Tables

    Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

    Table A1.Summary of World Output1(Annual parent change)
    Average
    1979–881989199019911992199319941995199619971998
    World3.43.72.71.82.82.74.13.74.04.44.4
    Advanced economies2.93.72.71.21.91.23.12.52.52.92.9
    United States2.73.41.3-1.02.72.33.52.02.43.02.2
    European Union2.23.53.01.61.0-0.52.92.51.62.42.9
    Japan3.84.85.14.01.10.10.61.43.62.22.9
    Other advanced economies4.64.23.42.83.34.05.74.84.14.44.7
    Developing countries4.34.24.04.96.56.56.86.06.56.66.5
    Regional groups
    Africa2.43.42.01.80.70.92.92.95.04.74.8
    Asia6.76.15.76.79.49.39.68.98.28.37.7
    Middle East and Europe2.22.85.33.16.14.30.33.84.53.93.9
    Western Hemisphere2.71.81.13.63.13.75.01.33.54.45.1
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel0.63.54.54.45.92.10.22.63.03.83.9
    Nonfuel5.04.34.05.06.67.17.66.46.86.96.7
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries0.44.06.25.87.95.80.51.03.61.72.1
    Net debtor countries4.54.23.94.96.56.57.06.26.56.86.6
    Official financing3.43.64.04.32.72.53.93.55.45.15.2
    Private financing4.83.43.65.87.97.97.76.36.77.06,9
    Diversified financing4.36.44.72.94.44.66.26.96.66.86.3
    Net debtor countries by debt-

    servicing experience
    Countries with recent

    difficulties
    2.31.90.82.52.52.64.03.23.84.85.2
    Countries without recent

    difficulties
    5.95.45.56.08.38.28.27.47.67.57.1
    Countries in transition2.92.1-3.6-8.0-11.7-6.3-6.7-0.80.13.04.8
    Central and eastern Europe-10.8-8.8-4.0-1.81.61.63.04.7
    Excluding Belarus and Ukraine-11.5-5.80.53.75.03.43.34.7
    Russia, Transcaucasus, and

    central Asia
    -5.4-14.6-8.8-12.8-4.0-1.93.04.9
    Memorandum
    Median growth rate
    Advanced economies3.03.83.02.21.71.23.72.72.73.13.1
    Developing countries3.23.63.12.93.63.43.84.14.34.74.8
    Countries in transilion3.43.0-2.3-11.9-13.9-8.40.41.52.74.05.1
    Output per capita
    Advanced economies2.23.01.90.41.20.52.51.81.92.32.3
    Developing countries2.00.62.12.94.24.44.54.44.74.94.7
    Countries in transition2.31.6-4.2-8.1-11.9-6.4-6.8-0.80.13.04.7
    Value of world output in billions

    of U.S. dollars
    At market exchange rates12,69520,44523,02424,73323,54724,10026,14129,06329.93530,59532,530
    At purchasing power parities15,03223.80425,43226,76428.10329,50331.27133,15335,11337,42740,035

    Real GDP.

    Table A2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand(Annual percent change)
    AverageFourth Quarter1
    1979–881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199619971998
    Real GDP
    Advanced economies2.93.72.71.21.91.23.12.52.52.92.9
    Major industrial countries2.83.62.50.81.81.02.82.02.22.62.62.72.62.6
    United States2.73.41.3-1.02.72.33.52.02.43.02.23.12.62.2
    Japan3.84.85.14.01.10.10.61.43.62.22.93.12.13.5
    Germany21.83.65.75.02.2-1.12.91.91.42.33.02.22.92.7
    Frunce2.24.32.50.81.2-1.32.82.21.32.43.02.03.12.8
    Italy2.72.92.21.10.6-1.22.13.00.71.02.40.20.82.9
    United Kingdom32.52.20.4-2.0-0.52.13.82.52.13.32.82.63.72.0
    Cannda3.22.4-0.2-1.80.82.24.12.31.53.53.42.33.93.2
    Other advanced economies3.54.53.92.92.42.04.54.23.73.84.1
    Spain2.34.73.72.30.7-1.22.12.82.22.83.4
    Netherlands1.64.74.12.32.00.83.42.12.73.02.9
    Belgium1.53.43.71.61.7-1.32.31.91.42.32.2
    Sweden2.22.41.4-1.1-1.4-2.23.33.61.12.02.5
    Austria2.13.84.32.82.00.43.01.81.11.72.8
    Denmark2.10.61.61.20.21.54.22.72.42.72.5
    Finland3.85.7-7.1-3.6-1.24.54.53.24.43.4
    Greece41.83.83.10.4-1.01.52.02.63.03.1
    Portugal2.85.74.02.21.7-1.20.72.33.23.33.5
    Ireland3.16.18.02.14.03.16.510.37.06.35.6
    Luxembourg4.29.93.45.45.88.54.13.53.73.73.5
    Switzerland2.23.92.3-0.3-0.81.00.1-0.70.72.3
    Norway3.20.91.93.13.32.85.03.34.84.23.2
    Israel3.61.26.16.36.63.56.87.14.44.84.8
    Iceland4.00.21.21.3-3.40.93.52.15.53.02.4
    Korea7.86.49.59.15.15.S8.68.97.15.66.3
    Australia3.34.41.4-1.12.33.45.23.24.03.23.7
    Taiwan Province of China8.10.25.47.66.86.36.56.05.66.06.3
    Hong Kong8.22.63.45.16.36.15.34.84.55.05.0
    Singapore7.39.69.07.36.210.410.18.87.06.66.1
    New Zealand1.90.8-0.2-1.70.95.05.93.42.73.73.0
    Memorandum
    Industrial cnuntries2.73.62.50.81.70.92.92.12.32.72.7
    European Union2.23.53.01.61.0-0.52.92.51.62.42.9
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies8.06.67.38.05.86.37.67.46.35.76.1
    Real total domestic demand
    Advanced economies2.93.92.70.81.90.93.32.42.62.72.8
    Major industrial countries2.83.42,20.21.70.92.92.02.32.62.52.62,52.5
    United States2.72.70,9-1.62.82.93.92.02.53.32.33.33.12.2
    Japan3.75.65.22.90.40.11.02.24.51.52.23.01.52.7
    Germany1.62.95.24.82.8-1.32.82.10.81.62.81.31.72.8
    France2.33.92.80.60.2-2.23.02.00.91.82.51.62.22.5
    Italy2.92.92.51.80.5-4.51.62.30.30.83.0-0.60.22.7
    United Kingdom3.02.9-0.6-3.10.22.02.91.52.04.33.12.24.92.4
    Canada3.44.3-0.5-1.20.42.03.11.01.64.23.44.52.83.4
    Other advanced economies3.26.14.73.12.50,74.84.23.53.13.8
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.73.62.30.31.60.63.02.12.32.62.6
    European Union2.33.72,91.41.0-1.82.62.21.32.22.9
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies7.110.310.59.66.65.78.56.96.54.05.0

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    Average of expenditure, income, and output estimates of GDP at market prices.

    Based on revised national accounts for 1988 onward.

    Table A3.Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1979–881989199019911992199319941995199619971998
    Private consumer expenditure
    Advanced economies3.03.42.91.42.41.72.72.32.62.42.6
    Major industrial countries3.03.02.60.92.11.62.42.12.32.22.4
    United States3.02.31.70.62.82.83.12.32.52.82.4
    Japan3.64.84.42.52.11.21.92.02.81.42.0
    Germany11.72.85.45.62.80.31.01.81.30.82.7
    France2.43.02.71.41.40.21.41.82.31.32.9
    Italy3.33.32.42.71.0-2.41.31.70.61.02.2
    United Kingdom3.53.20.6-2.2-0.12.52.61.93.03.92.5
    Canada3.13.41.0-1.61.31.62.91.42.42.92.7
    Other advanced economies3.15.24.:3.83.52.03.93.53.63.23.5
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.93.12.61.02 11.32.42.12.32.22.4
    European Union2.43.33.02.31.5-0.11.71.81.91.82.6
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies7.210.38.98.57.57.07.66.26.04.95.4
    Public consumption
    Advanced economies2.52.22.62.01.50.90.90.91.30.71.2
    Major industrial countries2.31.82.11.51.10.70.80.81.00.51.0
    United States2.32.72.31.0-0.10.2-0.30.5-0.30.7
    Japan2.92.01.52.02.02.42.43.52.32.21.6
    Germany11.8-1.62.20.54.31.32.02.40.81.5
    France2.60.42.12.83.43.41.10.91.61.21.0
    Italy2.70.91.31.71.10.5-0.50.2-1.1-0.2
    United Kingdom1.11.42.52.6-0.1-0.11.71.50.82.51.7
    Canada2.14.03.22.71.00.5-1.7-0.7-1.8-1.20.8
    Other advanced economies3.34.24.84.13.11.5l.51.52.61.42.2
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.42.02.31.71.20.80.80.91.00.61.1
    European Union2.21.12.32.12.21.00.91.11.20.81.2
    Newly industria1ized Asian
    economies5.78.48.88.17.12.72.22.36.02.43.5
    Gross fixed capital formation
    Advanced economies3.05.52.7-1.61.5-0.34.84.04.84.54.5
    Major industrial countries2.84.61.9-2.41.94.53.34.74.54.2
    United States2.52.0-1.4-6.65.25.17.95.26.15.83.9
    Japan4.08.28.53.3-1.5-2.0-0.81.18.71.72.6
    Germany11.06.38.56.03.5-5.64.21.5-0.83.64.0
    France1.87.92.8-2.8-6.71.32.6-0.51.32.5
    Italy2.54.43.60.8-1.8-12.80.25.91.81.67.5
    United Kingdom3.66.0-3.5-9.5-1.50.62,9-0.11.08.27.0
    Canada5.56.1-3.5-2.9-1.50.65.9-0.16.49.87.1
    Other advanced economies3.69.56.21.80.1-1.66.16.95.44.45.6
    Memorandum
    Industrialized countries2.85.21.9-2.51.3-0.74.43.74.54.64.4
    European Union227.13.8-0.3-0.9-6.52.23.61.23.95.2
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies7.513.516.711.06.16.510,29.28.93.55.6
    Final domestic demand
    Advanced economies2.93.83.01.01.91.02.72.42.92.52.8
    Major industrial countries2.83.22.50.41.81.02.42.02.62.42.5
    United States2.82.41.3-1.42.72.73.32.42.82.92.4
    Japan3.65.55.42.70.90.31.11.94.51.62.2
    Germany11.62.65.44.73.3-1.21.81.81.11.42.8
    France2.33.62.61.30.8-0.71.3l.81.61.32.4
    Italy3.03.12.42.10.5-4.01.02.00.70.72.8
    United Kingdom3.03,40.2-2.6-0.31.62.41.52.24.33.1
    Canada3.44.10.4-1.00.6l.l2.60.62.53.73.4
    Other advanced economies3.26.05.03.42.51.24.14.03.83.13.8
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.83.52.50.51.70.72.42.12.62.42.6
    European Union2.33.73.01.71.2-1.31.62.01.62.02.8
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies7.111.011.69.36.56.27.86.86.84.15.2
    Stock building2
    Advanced economies0.2-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.10.6-0.30.2
    Major industrial countries0.2-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.10.6-0.30.3
    United States-0.10.4-0.4-0.20.20.20.6-0.4-0.30.4-0.1
    Japan0.1-0.20.2-0.4-0.1-0.20.3-0.1
    Germany10.3-0.10.1-0.5-0.21.00.3-0.30.3
    France0.40.2-0.7-0.6-1.51.70.2-0.60.50.1
    Italy-020.1-0.30.1-0.60.60.3-0.40.10.2
    United Kingdom-0.4-0.8-0.50.50.40.50.1-0.2
    Canada0.2-1.0-0.1-0.20.90.50.3-0.80.5
    Other advanced economies0.10.1-0.2-0.3-0.40.70.3-0.2
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries0.2-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.10.6-0.30.2
    European Union0.1-0.1-0.3-0.1-0.50.90.20.30.20.1
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies0.1-0.5-0.90.30.1-0.50.70.2-0.2-0.2-0.1
    Foreign balance2
    Advanced economies-0.20.10.40.3-0.2-0.l0.20.1
    Major industrial countries-0.10.20.5-0.2-0.10.10.1
    United States-0.10.50.30.6-0.1-0.7-0.5-0.1-0.2-0.1
    Japan0.2-0.71.00.6-0.3-0.8-0.90.70.8
    Germany10.30.90.80.5-0.60.20.1-0.10.60.60.3
    France-0.20.3-0.30.20.90.9-0.20.20.40.60.5
    Italy-0.2-0.4-0.73.40.50.70.40.2-0.5
    United Kingdom-0.6-0.81.01.2-0.70.90.9-04-0.4-0.4
    Canada-0.3-1.60.6-0.60.50.30.91.2-0.2-0.6
    Other advanced economies0.3-1.6-0.6-0.21.2-0.3-0.10.20.70.4
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries-0.1-0.10.20.50.10.3-0.1-0.10.l0.1
    European Union-0.1-0.40.1-0.11.30.30.30.30.3
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies1.3-3.0-2.5-1.4-0.40.7-0.80.60.21.81.2

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

    Table A4.Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real Per Capita GDP(In percent)
    Average1
    1979–881989199019911992199319941995199619971998
    Unemployment rate
    Advanced economies6.86.05.96.67.37.77.67.37.37.27.0
    Major industrial countries6.85.95.86.57.27.37.26.96.97.06.7
    United States27.35.35.66.97.56.96.15.65.45.55.5
    Japan2.52.32.12.12.22.52.93.13.33.13.0
    Germany36.66.86.25.57.78.99,69,410.311.310.6
    France8.7948.99.410.311.612.311.612.412.812.3
    Italy49.312.011.010.910.710.211.312.012.112.312.0
    United Kingdom8.86.25.88.09.710.39.38.27.56.26.0
    Canada9.37.58.110.411.311.210.49.59.79.48.8
    Other advanced economies7.16.56.36.87.79.09.18.58.48,27.9
    Spain17.017.316.216.318.422.724.222.922.121.420.7
    Netherlands7.47.77.06.66.67.78.78.37.67.16.3
    Belgium10.99.38.79.310.312.012.912.912.612.812.6
    Sweden2.51.41.52.95.38.28.07.78.17.26.7
    Austria3.03.13.23.53.64.24.44.64.74.84.8
    Denmark8.69.39.610.511.212.312.210.38.88.28.1
    Finland5.23.53.57.613.117.918.417.216.315.114.0
    Greece7.17.57.07.78.79.79.610.09.89.69.3
    Portugal8.25.84.74.14.15.56.87.27.37.47.5
    Ireland13.415.713.515.416216.615.513.412.411.611.0
    Luxembourg1.31.41.31.11.62.12.72.82.82.82.8
    Switzerland0.60.50.51.12.54.54.74.24.75.55.5
    Norway2.54.95.25.55.96.05.44.94.84.03.8
    Israel5.48.99.610.611.210.07.80.36.76.86.5
    Iceland0.71.71.81.53.04.44.85.04.34.14.0
    Korea3.9262.52.32.42.82.42.02.12.22.2
    Australia7.66.27.09.610.810.99.78.58.68.48.0
    Taiwan Province of China2.01.61.71.51.51.51.61.82.62.52.4
    Hong Kong3.11.11.31.82.02.02.03.22.92.92.8
    Singapore3.72.21.71.92.72.72.62.73.03.03.0
    New Zealand4.77.17.810.310.39.58.16.36.26.05.9
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries7.16.36.26.97.88.28.17.77.77.77.4
    European Union8.78.78.18.59.911.111.611.211.311.310.8
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies3.32.22.12.02.12.42.22.12.32.42.3
    Growth in employment
    Advanced economies1.22.01.60.2-0.1-0.11.01.10.91.21.1
    Major industrial countries1.11.81.5-0.10.90.80.71.00.9
    United States1.82.01.3-0.90.71.52.31.51.41.91.1
    Japan1.11.92.01.91.10.20.10.10.50.80.8
    Germany30.41.53.01.7-1.9-1.8-0.7-0.1-1.0-0.90.2
    France1.51.10.2-0.61.1-0.21.40.10.21.1
    Italy0.40.11.41.4-1.1-4.1-1.7-0.50.10.5
    United Kingdom0.52.70.43.1-2.5-0.80.80.80.70.80.4
    Canada2.22,10.6-1.9-0.61.42.11.61.31.62.0
    Other advanced economies1.22.51.90.70.1-0.51.32.11.71.61.7
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries1.11.91.5-0.1-0.2-0.30.81.00.81.11.0
    European Union0.31.71.70.1-1.4-2.0-0.40.70.40.40.8
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies2.33.12.32.41.91.52.82.21.82.12.1
    Growth in real per capita GDP
    Advanced économies2.23.01.90.41.20.52.51.81.92.32.3
    Major industrial countries2.12.81.61.10.42.21.51.62.12.1
    United States1.72.40.3-2.0l.61.22.51.11.52.11.3
    Japan3.24.44.73.60.7-0.20.41.23.32.02.7
    Germany31.82.63.84.21.4-1.82.61.61.12.23.1
    France1.73.82.00.40.8-1.72.42.00.92.02.6
    Italy2.62.72.00.80.90.21.93.00.60.92.4
    United Kingdom2.31.90.1-2.6-0.91.83.52.71.83.02.5
    Canada2.10.7-1.7-3.0-0.41.13.01.10.42.42.4
    Other advanced economies2.83.83.12.01.81.33.73.22.93.13.4
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.12.91.71.00.32.21.61.72.12.3
    European Union2.03.12.31.00.7-0.62.52.21.42.22.7
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies6.45.56.06.94.85.46.36.25.34.75.1

    Compound annual rate of change lor employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

    The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the new survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    New series starting in 1993, reflecting revisions in The labor force surveys and the definition of unemployment to bring data in line with those of other advanced economies.

    Table A5.Developing Countries: Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1979–881989199019911992199319941995199619971998
    Developing countries4.34.24.04.96.56.56.86.06.56.66.5
    Regional groups
    Africa2.43.42.01.80.70.92.92.95.04.74.8
    Sub-Sahara2.43.32.21.40.5l.72.64.04.44.45.0
    Excluding Nigeria and
    South Africa2.92.51.31.20.81.62.94.75.65.15.6
    Asia6.76.15.76.79.49.39.68.98.28.37.7
    Excluding China and India4.97.87.76.96.25.96.87.46.97.06.7
    Middle East and Europe2.22.85.33.16.14.30.33.84.53.93.9
    Western Hemisphere2.71.81.13.63.13.75.01.33.54.45.1
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel0.63.54.54.45.92.10.22.63.03.83.9
    Manufactures6.65.33.85.78.59.29.78.57.77.97.6
    Nonfuel primary products2.31.9l.l3.03.84,65.16.15.65.45.8
    Services factor income,
    and private transfers4.62.12.12.52.52.93.13.84.35.05.1
    Diversified5.43.45.14.54.54.44.72.65.75.45.3
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries0.44.06.25.87.95.80.51.03.61.72.1
    Net debtor countries4.54.23.94.96.56.57.06.26.56.86.6
    Official financing3.43.64.04.32.72.53.93.55.45.15.2
    Private financing4.83.43.65.87.97.97.76.36.77.06.9
    Diversified financing4.36.44.72.94.44.66.26.96.66.86.3
    Net debtor countries by debt-
    servicing experience
    Countries with recent
    difficulties2.31.90.82.52.52.64.03.23.84.85.2
    Countries without recent
    difficulties5.95.45.56.08.38.28.27.47.67.57.1
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries2.62.41.30.82.12.23.15.05.45.45.7
    Least developed countries2.83.02.72.05.24.13.45.75.45.45.3
    Middïe East and north Africa1.83.43.53.65.32.52.22.24.54.23.9
    Memorandum
    Real per capita GDP
    Developing countries2.00.62.12.94.24.44.54.44.74.94.7
    Regional groups
    Africa-0.50.6-0.8-1.1-1.8-1.90.30.32.52.12.2
    Asia5.01.24.04.97.67.57.67.36.76.76.2
    Middle East and Europe-130.53.21.21.61.1-360.92.21.514
    Western Hemisphere0.5-0.6-0.81.61.11.83.20.7L82.73.4
    Table A6.Developing Countries—by Country: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1979–8819891990199119921993199419951996
    Africa2.43.42.01.80.70.92.92.95.0
    Algeria0.64.8-1.40.22.3-2.2-0.93.94.0
    Angola2.50.1-0.5-2.2-3.4-25.09.012.08.6
    Benin3.1-2.53.14.74.13.24.34.85.5
    Botswana11.09.27.37.63.01.93.04.96.1
    Burkina Faso3.30.9-1.510.02.5-0.81.23.95.5
    Burundi3.41.33.55.02.7-5.8-6.7-3.7-3.6
    Cameroon5.8-1.8-6.2-3.8-3.1-3.2-2.53.35.0
    Cape Verde5.56.2-0.81.43.34.23.84.74.0
    Central African Republic1.63.4-1.7-0.8-2.8-2.37.72.4-0.9
    Chad1.95.81.98.58.0-15.710.22.86.0
    Comoros4.2-3.22.53.07.73.8-2.3-2.31.9
    Congo7.32.90.92.42.6-1.0-5.52.24.8
    Côte d’Ivoire1.52.9-1.1-0.2-0.21.87.06.5
    Djibouti1.4-2.6-0.60.4-0.2-3.9-2.9-3.1-0.2
    Equatorial Guinea2.0-1.23.3-1.114.07.16.814.937.3
    Ethiopia2.80.23.4-6.7-6.512.01.75.412.4
    Gabon-0.47.013.56.1-3.32.33.63.73.2
    Gambia, The4,34.35.72.24.41.81.3-4.03.2
    Ghana1.15.13.45.33.95.03.84.55.0
    Guinea2.44.04.32.43.04.74.04.44.5
    Guinea-Bissau3.02.94.65.11.12.13.24.46.2
    Kenya4.35.84.51.4-0.80.33.14.94.2
    Lesotho2.710.43.71.72.68.011.59.313.1
    Liberia0.6-10.80.32.91.92.22.22.72.7
    Madagascar0.84.13.1-6.31.22.11.82.0
    Malawi2.01.35.78.7-7.39.7-10.29.610.4
    Mali1.311.80.4-0.98.4-2.42.36.44.0
    Mauritania5.12.2-1.82.61.74.94.24.34.4
    Mauritius4.65.74.76.44.86.74.23.34.4
    Morocco4.02.53.96.9-4.1-1.011.6-7.610.3
    Mozambique. Rep. of0.26.50.94.9-0.819.35.01.55.7
    Namibia1.72.20.37.48.2-1.96.52.62.0
    Niger1.81.0-1.32.4-6.51.44.03.03.6
    Nigeria1.07,28.24.82.92.31.32.52.1
    Rwanda3.4-5.70.4-4.36,6-6.8-49.024.613.3
    São Tomé and Príncipe-0.23.1-2.21.20.71.12.22.02.2
    Senegal3.5-1.44.5-0.72.8-2.12.04.85.2
    Seychelles3.110.37.52.76.95,1-1.6-1.83.2
    Sierra Leone0.55.01.6-8.0-9.60.13.5-10.04.9
    Somalia0.82.4
    South Africa2.32.4-0.3-1.0-2.21.32.73.43.1
    Sudan1,61.56.18.65.04.34.54.0
    Swaziland4.18.39.72.51.33.4342.52.5
    Tanzania2.83.94.66.44.73.93.53.84.5
    Togo1.44.1-0.4-0.9-6.3-18.515.28.15.9
    Tunisia4.02.67.13.97.82.03.32.57.5
    Uganda2.16.55.63.48.36.311.59.87.0
    Zaïre1.8-1.3-6.6-8.4-10.5-13.5-3.9-0.61.3
    Zambia1.5-3.7-0.5-2.56.4-3.0-3.95.0
    Zimbabwe4.85.7-0.84.6-8.43.06.32.38.1
    Asia6.76.15.76.79.49.39.68.98.2
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of-1.4-7.1-2.60.81.0-3.1-3.026.26.0
    Bangladesh3.85.05.14.14.84.84.74.95.0
    Bhutan7.64.55.93.94.45.05.16.96.0
    Cambodia3.51.27.67.04.14.07.67.5
    China9.84.13.89.214.313.512.610.59.7
    Fiji1.913.93.21.54.83.54.22.43.3
    India4.77.45.91.74.15.07.07.46.9
    Indonesia4.99.19.08.97.27.37.58.27.8
    Kiribati-4.8-2.2-3.22.8-1.60.91.82.52.6
    Lao P.D. Republic4.79.96.74.07.05.98.17.17.5
    Malaysia5.89.29.68.67.88.39.29.58.4
    Maldives10.39.316.27.66.36.26.67.26.5
    Marshall Islands-1.73.20.10.14.12.83.7-2.5
    Micronesia. Fed. States of-1.7-2.74.3-1.25.71.41.01.0
    Myanmar1.93.72.8-0.79.75.96.87.27.0
    Nepal3.64.66.44.13.47.13.05.84.2
    Pakistan6.44.75.68.25.00.83.94.46.0
    Papua New Guinea1.9-1.4-3.09.511.816.65.2-2.92.3
    Philippines1.96.23.0-0.60.32.14.44.85.5
    Solomon Islands2.14.31.02.012.34.05.86.94.4
    Sri Lanka4.62.36.24.64.36.95.65.43.5
    Thailand6.712.211.68.18.18.38.88.76.7
    Vanuatu2.14.55.24.3-0.74.42.63.23.0
    Vietnam4.97.84.96.08.68.18.89.50.5
    Western Samoa1.11.9-9.4-2.3-0.24.1-6.59.65.8
    Middle East and Europe2.22.85.33.16.14.30.33.84.5
    Bahrain2.12.44.64.67.88.22.31.2l.6
    Cyprus6.38.07.30.49.71.56.15.32.4
    Egypt5.93.02.41.20.30.52.73.24.3
    Iran, Islamic Republic of-2.04.511.28.68.12.10.93.14.2
    Iraq0.712.0-26.0-61.31.02.02.0
    Jordan5.0-13.41.01.816.15.68.16.95.2
    Kuwait-3.425.9-26.2-41.069.948.60.21.61.6
    Lebanon1.3-42.2-13.438.24.57.08.06.57.0
    Libya-0.8-7.88.212.0-4.20.1-0.9-1.12.0
    Malta4.28.26.26.34.74.55.06.23.5
    Oman8.53.08.46.08.56.23.84.63.8
    Qatar-0.45.314.8-0.45.92.8-2.73.6
    Saudi Arabia1.7-0.28.99.73.1-0.50.32.5
    Syrian Arab Republic3.9-9.07.67.110.53.95.55.05.0
    Turkey4.00.39.20.85.07.7-4.77.56.4
    United Arab Emirates-2.013.317.50.22.7-0.91.95.89.9
    Yemen Arab Republic, former7.73.41.7
    Yemen, former P.D. Republic of0.22.53.0
    Yemen, Republic of4.25.93.62.5
    Western Hemisphere2.71.81.13.63.13.75.01.33.5
    Antigua and Barbuda7.16.33.54.41.13.54.8-4.25.0
    Argentina0.4-7.0-1.310.510.36.38.5-4.64.4
    Aruba9.111.73.83.83.83.83.83.8
    Bahamas, The4.32.31.2-2.7-2.01.70.90.33.0
    Barbados2.13.6-3.3-3.9-5.70.84.02.94.5
    Belize3.513.011.03.09.33.41.63.83.0
    Bolivia-0.43.64.44.62.84.14.23.85.0
    Brazil3.23.3-3.10.3-0.84.25.74.23.0
    Chile3.39.93.37.311.06.34.28.57.2
    Colombia3.63.44.32.04.05.45.85.43.0
    Costa Rica2.45.63.62.27.36.04.52.5-1.2
    Dominica3.5-1.16.32.22.71.92.11.83.2
    Dominican Republic3.64.8-5.81.08.03.04.34.87.3
    Ecuador2.80.33.05.03.62.04.32.31.8
    El Salvador-1.50.94.93.67.47.46.06.32.0
    Grenada4.65.85.23.61.2-1.22.32.73.0
    Guatemala1.03.93.13.74.83.94.04.93.1
    Guyana-2.0-3.3-2.56.17.88.28.65.07.9
    Haiti0.91.1-0.1-3.0-14.8-2.6-10.64.52.0
    Honduras2.74.30.13.35.66.0-1.54.54.5
    Jamaica1.84.74.10.81.81.00.50.5
    Mexico3.0-1.25.14.23.62.04.5-6.25.1
    Netherlands Antilles0.37.81.51.83.70.32.4-2.4
    Nicaragua-3.7-1.7-0.1-0.20.4-0.23.34.24.5
    Panama1.81.68.19.48.25.52.92.32.0
    Paraguay3.85.83.12.51.84.13.14.21.6
    Peru1.8-11.7-3.32.9-1.86.413.17.02.8
    St, Kitts and Nevis5.76.73.03.93.55.04.14.86.7
    St. Lucia6.09.14.12.37.12.12.24.13.7
    St, Vincent and the Grenadines6.06.55.43.14.92.1-0.46.73.3
    Suriname-2.04.00.12.94.0-2.2-7.04.04.0
    Trinidad and Tobago-2.1-0.71.52.7-1.7-1.63.82.43.2
    Uruguay1.51.30.93.27.93.06.8-2.44.8
    Venezuela1.1-8.66.59.76.10.3-2.93.4-1.2

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    Table A7.Countries in Transition: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1979–8819891990199119921993199419951996
    Central and eastern Europe-10.8-8.8-4.0-1.81.61.6
    Albania1.89.8-10.0-28.0-7.29.69.48.98.2
    Belarus-1.2-9.7-10.6-12.2-10.22.0
    Bulgaria4.3-0.5-9.111.7-7.3-1.51.82.6-9.0
    Croatia-3.70.81.55.0
    Czech Republic-0.92.64.84.2
    Czechoslovakia, former2.44.5-0.4-15.9-8.5
    Estonia-7.9-21.6-8.4-0.13.23.1
    Hungary1.70.7-3.5-11.9-3.1-0.62.91.51.0
    Latvia-11.1-35.2-I6.I2.20.42.5
    Lithuania-13.1-51.9-24.21.03.13.5
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of-8.4-4.0-1.41.1
    Moldova-17.5-29.1-1.2-31.2-3.0-8.0
    Poland0.80.2-11.6-7.02.63.86.06.55.5
    Romania2.8-5.8-5.6-12.9-8.81.53.97.14.1
    Slovak Republic-3.74.66.87.0
    Slovenia2.85.33.93.5
    Ukraine-11.9-17.0-16.8-23.0-12.0-10.0
    Yugoslavia, former1.30.8-7.5-17.0-34.0
    Russia-5.0-14.5-8.7-12.6-4.0-2.8
    Transcaucasus and central Asia-7.2-15.1-9.4-13.4-3.91.6
    Armenia-12.4-52.6-14.15.46.96.6
    Azerbaijan-0.7-22.1-23.1-18.1-11.01.3
    Georgia-20.6-44.8-25.4-11.42.410.5
    Kazakstan-13.0-14.0-12.0-25.0-8.91.0
    Kyrgyz Republic-7.9-13.9-15.5-20.11.35.6
    Mongolia6.64.2-5.6-9.2-9.5-3.02.36.33.0
    Tajikistan-7.1-28.9-11.1-21.4-12.5-7.0
    Turkmenistan-4.7-5.3-10.0-18.8-8.2-3.0
    Uzbekistan-0.5-11.1-2.3-4.2-0.91.6

    Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally avail-abíe. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises or of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

    Table A8.Summary of Inflation(In percent)
    Average
    1979–881989199019911992199319941995199619971998
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies6.64.44.54.53.32.82.22.32.02.02.2
    United States5.44.24.34.02.72.62.32.52.02.12.7
    European Union7.84.95.25.54.53.62.62.92.62.22.1
    Japan2.32.02.32.51.70.80.2-0.60.30.3
    Other advanced economies11.96.15.75.43.53.32.93.23.02.92.9
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies6.84.55.24.73.53.12.62.62.42.52.5
    United Slates6.14.85.44.23.03.02.62.82.92.93.0
    European Union7.54.75.45.14.53.82.93.02.52.22.1
    Japan2.72.33.13.31.71.20.7-0.10.11.31.2
    Other advanced economic11.85.96.36.54.13.53.43.63.33.23.2
    Developing countries31.864.968.135.938.846.951321.313.19.78.5
    Regional groups
    Africa15.518.815.524.632.129.538.632.124.812.06.9
    Asia8.311.86.67.87.010.414.711.86.66.26.5
    Middle East and Europe19.021.422.125.326.624.732.433.824.521.019.1
    Western Hemisphere93.6340.0442.9129.8153.2212.6213.736.020.412.99.3
    Analytical groups
    By source or export earnings
    Fuel12.420.914.118.923.925.533.938.830.314.57.8
    Nonfuel35.872.377.638.440.949.953.619.411.39.28.5
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries3.41.73.26.43.84.23.44.72.11.81.8
    Net debtor countries33.167.871.137.140.248.753.221.813.49.98.7
    Official financing17.822.618.025.523.522.027.321.414.910.16.7
    Private financing46.1111.2117.049.556.270.877.325.514.310.89.3
    Diversified financing12.79.813.214.812.011.611.612.610.57.77.8
    Net debtor countries by debt-
    servicing experience
    Countries with recent
    difficulties60.7238.2293.7106.2132.0179.2191.836.319.011.37.5
    Countries without recent
    difficulties17.915.512.112.511.212.816.816.411.39.49.1
    Countries in transition6.426.835.695.9597.1486.1246.0119.240.430.711.6
    Central and eastern Europe95.0263.7307.0141.070.532.138.213.4
    Excluding Belarus and Ukraine98.0103.574.444.625.424.541.012.9
    Russia92.71,353.0699.8302.0190.147.814.27.8
    Transcaucasus and central Asia114.0880.21,096.11,532.6260.270.051.914.5
    Memorandum
    Median inflation rate
    Advanced economies7.24.95.44.03.23.02.42.42.12.42.2
    Developing countries10.19.010.412.19.89.511.110.07.05.45.0
    Countries in transition1.12.06.7101.4871.0472.2131.636.224.216.510.0
    Table A9.Advanced Economies; GDP Deflators and Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    AverageFourth Quarter1
    1979–881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199619971998
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies6.64.44.54.53.32.82.22.32.02.02.2
    Major industrial countries5.74.04.14.13.02,51.82.01.81.82.0161.92.0
    United States5.44.24.34.02.72.62.32.32.02.12.71.82.52.7
    Japan2.32.02.32.51.70.80.20.60.30.3-0.10.90.1
    Germany23.12.43.23.95.53.92.22.21.01.51.80,52.11.7
    France7.83.03.13.32.12.51.51.71.61.71.81.41.91.8
    Italy12.76.37.67.74.74.41.55.05.02.72.15.70.71.6
    united Kingdom8.27.16.46.54.63.21.92.33.12.82.33.32.13.2
    Canada6.24.83.12.91.2l.l0.71.5132.01.71.71.81.7
    Other advanced economies11.06.36.46.34.84.13.53.63.12.82.9
    Spain11.07.17.37.16.94.34.04.93.32.62.5
    Netherlands2.61.22.32.72.31.92.01.52.32.02.3
    Belgium4.64.62.93.13.63.82.51.41.82.02.0
    Sweden7.98.08.87.61.02.6253.70.92.32.6
    Austria4.22.93.34.04.23.43.32.11.91.91.9
    Denmark6.64.22.52.43.20.61.61.82.02.32.3
    Finland7.66.15.72.60.72.41.32.21.01.11.6
    Greece18.314,520.619.814.614.110.99.38.87.25.9
    Portugal19.312.012.114.813.06.95.15.03.42.92.7
    Ireland9.45.4-0.81.82.24.21.20.52.02.12.4
    Luxembourg4.6-0.31.72.83.38.00.31.81.22.0
    Switzerland3.64.25.75.52.62.01.92.50.30.11.5
    Norway8.25.73.82.5-0.52.10.63.14.22.52.5
    Israel113.320.216.120.612.111.512.39.211.28.06.8
    Iceland38.619.816.77.63.82.32.12.73.12.82.6
    Korea9.95.39.910.16.15.15.55.43.83.64.0
    Australia8.77.64.62.11.41.51.12.82.02.62.2
    Taiwan Province of China5.03.33.83.83.93.51.91.93.52.12.6
    Hong Kong9.512.37.59.29.78.57.24.45.66.55.8
    Singapore3.64.85.03.41.25.44.32.51.81.82.0
    New Zealand13.15.54.00.41.32.70.82.22.11.91.6
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries6.14.34.34.33.22.62.02.21.91.92.0
    European Union7.84.95.25.54.53.62.62.92.62.22.1
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies7.95.77.37.65.65.14.54.03.83.43.7
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies6.84.55.24.73.53.12.62.62.42.52.5
    Major industrial countries6.04.34.84.33.22.82.22.32.22.32.32.32.32.3
    United States6.14.85.44.23.03.02.62.82.92.93.03.22.93.0
    Japan2.72.33.13.31.71.20.7-0.10.11.31.20.41.71.0
    Germany2,33.02.82.73.55.14.52.71.81.51.82.01.51.92.0
    France8,03.53.43.22.42.11.71.82.01.61.81.71.91.8
    Italy12.16.36.56.35.24.54.05.43.92.42.02.81.91.9
    United Kingdom47.65.98.16.84.73.02.42.82.92.62.53.22.52.5
    Canada6.65.04.85.61.51.80.22.21.71.71.81.92.01.7
    Other advanced economies10.65.86.76.34.94.14.13.73.33.13.0
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries6.34.45.04.53.32.92.32.42.32.32.3
    European Union7.54.75.45.14.53.82.93.02.52.22.1
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies7.45.87.17.55.94.65.74.74.34.34.0

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    Based on the revised consumer price index for united Germany introduced in September 1995.

    Retail price index excluding mortgage interest.

    Table A10.Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1979–881989199019911992199319941995199619971998
    Hourly earnings
    Advanced economics8.16.46.26.25.53.13.13.73.73.23.7
    Major industrial countries7.25.15.86.15.23.32.83.63.32.83.4
    United States6.43.34.75.34.42.42.83.63.12.93.5
    Japan3.96.76.55.94.62.62.72.51.71.33.1
    Germany15.34.25.77.39.66.82.04.23.22.33.0
    France9.84.84.85.44.63.33.72.52.62.93.2
    Italy14.69.78.59.77.25.02.16.35.34.34.0
    United Kingdom11.09.09.08.05.14.34.45.13.74.34.9
    Canada6.55.35.24.73.52.11.61.43.23.01.9
    Other advanced economies12.512.78,36.46.82.14.44.45.84.94.9
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries7.55.56.16.35.43.42.93.63.42.93.4
    European Union9.67.27.27.67.05.03.24.33.73.53.7
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies11.829.79.42.18.0-5.46.24.78.66.97.5
    Productivity
    Advanced economies3.23.51.91.82.41.54.63.63.02.52.5
    Major industrial countries3.02.92.22.12.41.64.63.63.02.52.5
    United States2.51.81.82.53.42.13.23.34.02.62.3
    Japan3.24.52.81.5-3.7-1.63.54.93.92.73.4
    Germany12.83.13.52.94.03.38.74.04.23.03.0
    France4.25.11.51.34.2-0.28.93.0203.42.4
    Italy4.53.01.41.33.91.95.66.9-1.11.71.8
    United Kingdom3.74.42.22.14.34.74.41.9-0.30.92.4
    Canada1.40.53.31.04.33.13.8-0.90.91.01.1
    Other advanced economies3.86.20.60.42.31.14.93.82.92.82.5
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries3.13.11.92.02.41.94.83.62.92.52.4
    European Union3.84.31.92.03.73.07.13.91.52.42.3
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies6.213.1-4.41.3-6.92.45.35.13.74.0
    Unit labor costs
    Advanced economies4.82.94.34.33.11.5-1.50.10.70.61.1
    Major industrial countries4.12.13.54.02.81.7-1.70.30.30.9
    United States3.81.52.92.70.90.3-0.40.3-0.30.31.2
    Japan0.72.03.54.38.64.3-0.7-2.3-2.1-1.4-0.4
    Germany12.51.02.14.25.43.4-6.20.2-1.0-0.7
    France5.3-0.33.34.00.33.6-4.80.50.6-0.50.7
    Italy9.66.57.18.33.23.0-3.3-0.66.42.52.1
    United Kingdom7.04.46.75.70.7-0.43.14.03.42.4
    Canada5.04.81.83.7-0.8-1.0-2.12.42.32.00.8
    Other advanced economies8.16.37.55.64.11.0-0.60.32.51.82.0
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries4.32.34.04.23.01.5-1.70.10.60.51.0
    European Union5.62.85.35.63.22.0-3.50.52.21.11.4
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies4.313.68.45.14.81.32.2-1.52.22.22.4

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    Table A11.Developing Countries: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1979–881989199019911992199319941995199619971998
    Developing countries31.864.968.135.938.846.951.321.313.19.78.5
    Regional groups
    Africa15.518.815.524.632.129.538.632.124.812.06.9
    Sub-Sahara18.123.716.927.637.737.646.439.631.514.88.0
    Excluding Nigeria and
    South Africa20.320.620.937.945.443.359.643.942.116.79.1
    Asia8.311.86.67.87.010.414.711.86.66.26.5
    Excluding China and India9.98.39.811.07.67.87.98.57.45.96.6
    Middle East and Europe19.021.422.125.326.624.732.433.824.521.019.1
    Western Hemisphere93.6340.0442.9129.8153.2212.6213.736.020.412.99.3
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel12.420.914.118.923.925.533.938.830.314.57.8
    Manufactures33.789.398.441.757.678.983.918.57.06.46.5
    Nonfuel primary products44.2120.1144.082.442.733.437.023.720.213.47.9
    Services, factor income,
    and private transfers15.919.422.021.519.613.614.212.39.26.65.8
    Diversified40.149.148.029.118.916.116.621.419.314.813.5
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries3.41.73.26.43.84.23.44.72.11.81.8
    Net debtor countries33.167.871.137.140.248.753.221.813.49.98.7
    Official financing17,822.618.025,523.522.027.321.414.910.16.7
    Private financing46.1111.2117.049.556.270.877.325.514.310.89.3
    Diversified financing12.79.813.214.812.011.611.612.610.57.77.8
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with recent
    difficulties60.7238.2293.7106.2132.0179.2191.836.319.011.37.5
    Countries without recent
    difficulties17.915.512.112.511.212.816.816.411.39.49.1
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor
    countries28.630.931.851.844.443.157.042.639.015.98.9
    Least developed countries18.424.925.539.736.029.038.423.519.312.48.2
    Middle East and north Africa13.212.714.617.919.015.619.919.912.59.06.9
    Memorandum
    Median
    Developing countries10.19.010.412.19.89.511.110.07.05.45.0
    Regional groups
    Africa10.79.010.110.510.19.324.612.38.36.04.8
    Asia8.78.09.612.08.98.87.98.16.15.45.1
    Middle East and Europe7.03.89.09.06.95.04.75.06.54.04.0
    Western Hemisphere13.015.221.822.712.110.78,310.27.15.55.0
    Table A12.Developing Countries—by Country: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1979–8819891990199119921993199419951996
    Africa15.518.815.524.632.129.538.632.124.8
    Algeria9.29.216.725.931.716.138.421.915.1
    Angola13.11.81.883.6299.11,379.5949.82,672.04,182.0
    Benin3.3-0.21.12.15.90.538.615.14.7
    Botswana11.811.611.311.816.114.310.610.58.6
    Burkina Faso6.4-0.5-0.52.2-2.01.024.77.86.0
    Burundi8.211.77.09.04.59.714.719.412.0
    Cameroon8.41.61.5-0.61.9-3.712.726.96.4
    Cape Verde12.65.310.68.07.05.93.48.45.0
    Central African Republic7.10.6-0.2-2.8-0.8-2.924.519.23.5
    Chad6.0-4.90.54.2-3.8-7.041.39.510.0
    Comoros6.15.71.61.7-1.42.021.77.15.0
    Congo7.54.02.6-1.6-3.94.942.98.610.6
    Cäte d’Ivoire8.51.0-0.71.64.22.125.814.36.6
    Djibouti5.73.07.86.83.44.46.54.94.0
    Equatorial Guinea18.87.20.74.9-3.20.338.911.46.0
    Ethiopia6.32.29.620.823.010.11.213.40.9
    Gabon6.36.66.03.3-10.80.636.110.05.1
    Gambia. The16.210.810.29.112.05.94.04.04.8
    Ghana47.325.337.218.010.124.924.959.545.6
    Guinea31.428.319.419.616.67.14.25.65.0
    Guinea-Bissau52.180.833.057.669.448.215.245.450.7
    Kenya11.57.611.219.627.346.028.81.79.0
    Lesotho14.714.711.617.717.213.18.29.38.9
    Liberia6.125.310.010.010.010.010.010.010.0
    Madagascar18.89.011.88.515.39.239.149.019.7
    Malawi16.912.511.98.223.222.834.783.137.7
    Mali3.7-0.21.61.5-5.9-0.624.812.47.0
    Mauritania8.79.06.45.610.19.34.16.53.0
    Mauritius10.416.0l0.712.82.98.99.46.15.8
    Morocco8.13.17.08.05.75.25.16.13.0
    Mozambique, Rep. of32.242.143.733.345.142.363.154.444.6
    Namibia12.915.512.011.917.78.510.810.08.0
    Niger4.8-0.8-2.0-1.9-1.7-0.435.610.94.7
    Nigeria16.650.57.413.044.657.257.070.029.3
    Rwanda6.11.04.219.69.512.464.022.08.9
    São Tomé and Prìncipe10.442.942.246.533.731.848.064.525.3
    Senegal7.60.40.3-1.8-0.1-0.732.18.13.0
    Seychelles5.01.53.92.03.21.31.80.2-1.0
    Sierra Leone53.460.8110.9102.765.517.618.429.828.8
    Somalia44.5110.4
    South Africa14.514.814.415.213.99.79.08.67.4
    Sudan32.365.356.0111.0110.0103.0118.057.085.0
    Swaziland14.36.313.611.08.211.313.812.311.0
    Tanzania28.631.230.431.724.823.830.234.025.7
    Togo5.6-1.21.10.31.6-0.135.315.75.0
    Tunisia8.77.76.58.25.84.04.76.35.0
    Uganda106.745.424.542.230.06.56.17.45.0
    Zaire57.3104.181.32,154.44,129.21,893.123,760.5541.8610.6
    Zambia26.7123.3107.097.7165.7183.354.634.943.1
    Zimbabwe12.912.817.423.342.127.622.322.621.4
    Asia8.311.86.67.87.010.414.711.86.6
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of15.189.8157.8166.058.234.020.014.014.0
    Bangladesh11.78.76.06.33.53.16.36.33.5
    Bhutan9.28.59.413.316.08.98.110.77.0
    Cambodia55.3141.8197.075.0114.5-0.57.86.0
    China5.617.82.12.75.413.021.714.86.0
    Fiji7.55.711.96.18.26.54.95.20.6
    India9.16.59.913.09.88.89.810.27.0
    Indonesia11.16.47.89.47.59.78.59.47.9
    Kiribati6.95.33.85.74.06.15.16.54.0
    Lao P.D. Republic47.759.735.713.49.86.36.825.77.5
    Malaysia2.22.62.82.64.73.53.73.43.5
    Maldives11.17.23.614.716.820.216.55.43.5
    Marshall Islands2.20.74.010.35.05.67.34.0
    Micronesia, Fed, States of4.53.54.05.06.04.04.04.0
    Myanmar8.423.821.929.122.333.622.428.920.0
    Nepal7.711.59.821.08.98.97.67.07.0
    Pakistan6.87.29.711.89.59.611.812.110.3
    Papua New Guinea6.44,57.07.04.35.02.917.311.6
    Philippines15.010.612.718.78.97.69.08.18.4
    Solomon Islands11.014.98.610.89.210.417,19.87.2
    Sri Lanka12.611.621.512.211.411.78.47.714.0
    Thailand6.15.56.05.74.13.35.05.85.8
    Vanuatu8.37.55.05.64.11.72.71.72.5
    Vietnam118.435.067.068.117.55.214.512.86.0
    Western Samoa1376.415.28.51.718.41.07.03.5
    Middle East and Europe19.021.422.125.326.624.732.433.824.5
    Bahrain2.21.21.31.02.10.43.11.2
    Cyprus6.33.84.55.06.54.94.73.13.0
    Egypt16.320.221.219.521.111.29.09.47.2
    Iran, Islamic Republic of18.917.49.020.724.422.935.249.423.0
    Iraq18.015.050.050.050.075060.050.030.0
    Jordan5.825716.18.24.03.33.52.46.5
    Kuwait3.43.31.816.95.70.42.50.70.9
    Lebanon63.472.268.851.5120.024.78.010.69.5
    Libya9.81.38.611.718.023.017.010.07.0
    Malta4.10.83.02.51.64.14.14.03.8
    Oman2.51.610.04.61.01.2-0.7-1.32.0
    Qatar4.33.33.04.43.1-0.91.31.23.0
    Saudi Arabia0.41.02.l4.6-0.40.80.65.01.0
    Syrian Arab Republic20.910.011.19.011.013.215.08.08.0
    Turkey49.563.360.366.070.166.1106.393.682.3
    United Arab Emirates5.93.30.65.56.95.03.94.83.3
    Yemen Arab Republic, former13.819.414.0
    Yemen, former P, D, Republic of5.72.1
    Yemen, Republic of44.950.662.371.848.029.0
    Western Hemisphere93.6340.0442.9129.8153.2212.6213.736.020.4
    Antigua and Barbuda6.73.77.05.73.03.13.52.91.7
    Argentina226.03,080.52,314.7171.724.910.64.23.40.1
    Aruba4.05.85.63.95,25.25.25.2
    Bahamas, The6.65.44.67.15.72.71.32.21.5
    Barbados7.96.33.06.36.11.10.11.92.4
    Belize3.02.13.05.62.81.62.32.92.4
    Bolivia231.515.217.121.412.18.57.910.210.4
    Brazil233.31,319.92,740.0413.3991.42,103.32,124.011.1
    Chile22.817.026.021.815.412.711.48.27.4
    Colombia23.625.929.130.427.022.422.820.920.8
    Costa Rica24.716.519.028.721.89.813.523.217.6
    Dominica8.66.9-30.35.55.51.61.31.7
    Dominican Republic16.940.750.547.14.35.28.312.55.4
    Ecuador26.375.748.448.854.645.027.323.024.4
    El Salvador17.817.624.014.411.218.510.610.19.8
    Grenada8.45.62.82.63.82.82.62.22.8
    Guatemala12.413.041.035.110.213.412.58.410.6
    Guyana20.489.763.6101.528.211.713.612.37.1
    Haiti7.511.020.419.021.318.837.430.221.9
    Honduras7.77.021.226.09.110.722.518.58.3
    Jamaica18.116.124.868.657.524.531.721.721.5
    Mexico64.820.026.722.715.59.87.035.034.1
    Netherlands Antilles5.53.83.73.81.51.91.92.73.5
    Nicaragua244.84,709.33,127.57,755.340.520.47.711.26.8
    Panama3.60.21.91.41.80.51.30.92.0
    Paraguay20.526.038.224.315.118.320.613.48.2
    Peru116.63,398.77,481.6409.573.548.623.711.211.5
    St. Kitts and Nevis4.65.14.24.22.81.82.61.71.0
    St. Lucia5.94.43.86.25.60.82.65.93.3
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines7.32.77.35.93.84.30.42.44.5
    Suriname13.60.821.826.043.7143.4368.5235.93.0
    Trinidad and Tobago12.84.611.03.86.511.15.65.33.6
    Uruguay55.280.4112.5101.868.554.144.742.328.3
    Venezuela15.684.540.734.231.438.160.859.999.9

    For many countries, figures lor recent years arc IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries arc for fiscal years.

    Data are based on a price index of domestic demand, which is a weighted average of the consumer price index, the wholesale price index, and a price index for construction activity. The year-on-year increase in 1995 in this price index was 59.6 percent, which largely was the result of carryover effects from the high inflation rate prevailing prior to the introduction of the real on July 1. 1994. Consequently, the inflation rate from December 1994 to December 1995, which was 14.8 percent, better reflects the underlying inflation rate during 1995.

    Table A13.Countries in Transition: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1979–8819891990199119921993199419951996
    Central and eastern Europe95.0263.7307.0141.070.533.1
    Albania35.8225.285.022.67.812.7
    Belarus83.5969.01,188.02,220.0709.052.0
    Bulgaria1.96.423.9333.582.072.896.062.1123.0
    Croatia1,516.097.51.63.5
    Czech Republic20.810.09.19.0
    Czechoslovakia, former1.81.410.859.011.0
    Estonia210.61,069.089.039.828.923.1
    Hungary8.116.929.034.223.022,518.828.223.6
    Latvia124.4951.3109.135.925.118.8
    Lithuania224.71,020.5410.472.139.524.7
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of334.5126.516.12.5
    Moldova162.01,276.0788.5329.630.223.5
    Poland27.2251.1585.870343.035.332.227.819.9
    Romania3,65.1161.1210.4256.1136.732.338.8
    Slovak Republic23.013.49.96.0
    Slovenia32.319.812.69.7
    Ukraine91.21,209.74,734.9891.0376.080.0
    Yugoslavia, former63.21,239.9583.1117.46,146.6
    Russia92.71,353.0699.8302.0190.147.8
    Transcaucasus and central Asia114.0880.21,096.11,532.6260.270.0
    Armenia100.3824.53,731.85,273.4176.718.6
    Azerbaijan105.6912.61,129.71,664.4411.719.8
    Georgia78.5887.43.125,415,606.5162.640.2
    Kazakstan91.01,381.01,662.31,879.9176.339.1
    Kyrgyz Republic85.0854.6772.4228.752.530.4
    Mongolia0.222.2202.6268.487.656.850.0
    Tajikistan111.61,156.72,194.9350.4610.0443.0
    Turkmenistan102.5492.93,102.41,748.01.005.0992.0
    Uzbekistan169.0645.2534.01,568.0304.654.0

    For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured based on a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

    Table A14.Summary Financial Indicators(in parent)
    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998
    Advanced economies
    Central government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies-2.1-2.5-3.04.0-4.2-3.6-3.1-2.6-2.0-1.8
    United States-2.4-3.0-3.5-4.7-3.9-2.7-2.1-1.4-1.5-1.3
    European Union-2.9-3.5-3.8-4.9-5.9-5.3-4.4-3.9-2.7-2.5
    Japan-1.2-0.5-0.2-1.72.7-3.5-4.2-4.3-3.5-3.3
    Other advanced economies-0.2-0.6-1.9-2.2-2.1-1.3-0.9-0.80.3
    General government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies-1.1-2.0-2.7-3.7-4.2-3.4-3.2-2.7-2.0-1.8
    United States-1.7-2.7-3.3-4.4-3.6-2.3-2.0-1.4-1.5-1.3
    European Union-2.4-3.6-4.4-5.3-6.5-5.8-5.2-4.4-3.1-2.9
    Japan2.52.92.91.5-1.6-2.3-3.7-4.6-2.9-2.7
    Other advanced economies0.1-0.9-2.3-3.3-2.6-0.9-0.3-0.10,40.7
    General government structural balance1
    Advanced economies-2.6-3.5-3.3-3.7-3.4-2.9-2.7-2.2-1.5-1.5
    Growth of broad money
    Advanced economies9.48.25.83.23.92.54.45.0
    United States5.24.13.11.81.30.64.04.6
    European Union10.311.69.54.76.01.24.45.6
    Japan12.07.42.3-0.22.22.83.33.2
    Other advanced economies17.311.98.78.28.09.38.27.6
    Short-term interest rates2
    United Slates8.17.55.43.43.04.25.55.15.55.6
    Japan4.76.97.04.12.71.91.00.30.62.0
    Germany7.18.49.29.57.25.34.53.33.33.9
    LIBOR9.38.46.13.93.45.16.15.66.06.1
    Developing countries
    Central government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average-4.6-3.23.6-2.9-3.3-2.6-2.4-2.2-1.5-1.3
    Median-4.5-3.9-4.0-3.7-4.2-4.03.7-2.9-2.0-1.6
    General government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average-5.5-3.9-3.9-3.63.8-3.0-3.0-2,9-2.0-2.0
    Median-4.8-3.9-3.8-3.9-4,2-3.9-3.5-2.3-1.7-1.3
    Growth of broad money
    Weighted average101.396.677.284.383.669.725.722.818.616.4
    Median16.517.918.817.616.318.816.113.411.810.2
    Countries in transition
    Central government fiscal balance1-2.6-4.4-9.1-10.4-6.2-7.2-3.8-3.4-3.4-2.5
    General government fiscal balance1-2.4-4.0-9.2-13.6-6.4-6.9-3.9-4.0-3.8-2.6
    Growth of broad money99.123.6117.9939.2267,3142.565,424.623.917.3

    In percent of GDP.

    For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for Germany, three-month interbank deposits: for LIBOR. London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

    Table A15.Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Fiscal Balances and Balances Excluding Social Security Transactions1(in percent of GDP)
    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998
    General government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies-1.1-2.0-2.7-3.7-4.2-3.4-3.2-2.7-2.0-1.8
    Major industrial countries-1.2-2.1-2.7-3.8-4.3-3.5-3.4-3.0-2.3-2.1
    United States-1.7-2.7-3.3-4.4-3.6-2.3-2.0-1.4-1.5-1.3
    Japan2.52.92.91.5-1.6-2.3-3.7-4.6-2.9-2.7
    Germany20.1-2.0-3.3-2.8-3.5-2.4-3.5-3.8-3.3-2.9
    France3-1.1-1.4-2.0-4.0-5.8-5.8-5.0-4.1-3.3-3.4
    Italy4-9.9-11.1-10.2-9.5-9.6-9.0-7.1-6.8-3.3-4.1
    United Kingdom50.9-1.2-2.5-6.3-7.8-6.8-5.6-4.4-3.1-2.1
    Canada-2.9-4.1-6.6-7.4-7.3-5.3-4.1-1.8-0.30.3
    Other advanced economies-0.8-1.7-2.6-3.5-4.0-2.8-2.3-1.6-0.9-0.6
    Spain-2.8-3.9-5.0-4.1-7.5-6.2-6.6-4.4-3.2-3.0
    Netherlands-4.7-5.1-2.9-3.9-3.2-3.4-4.0-2.3-2.2-1.8
    Belgium-6.4-5.6-6.6-7.2-7.4-5.1-4.1-3.4-2.9-2.6
    Sweden5.44.2-1.1-7.8-12.3-10.3-7.9-2.5-0.80.3
    Austria-2.8-2.2-2.7-1.9-4.2-4.8-5.3-3.9-2.5-2.8
    Denmark-0.5-1.5-2.1-2.9-3.9-3.4-1.9-1.6-0.1
    Finland6.35.3-1.5-5.9-8.0-6.2-5.2-2.6-1.9-0.7
    Greece-14.4-16.1-11.5-12.314.2-12.1-9.2-7.6-5.1-3.5
    Portugal-2.3-5.5-6.6-3.5-6.8-5.7-4.9-4.0-2.9-2.5
    Ireland-1.8-2.3-2.2-2.4-2.2-2.0-2.4-1.0-1.6-1.6
    Luxembourg4,65.0-0.4-0.80.50.90.40.1-0.1-0,1
    Switzerland0.8-2.1-3.5-3.7-2.8-1.8-2.2-2.9-2.5
    Norway3,64.22.1-1.7-1.40.43.36.36.37.3
    Israel-5.8-4.5-4.4-3.1-2.3-1.2-3.1-4.2-3.2-2.5
    Iceland-4.6-3.3-2.9-2.84.5-4.7-3.1-1.7-1.0-0.7
    Korea60.2-0.6-1.6-2.6-1.03.33.01.01.01.0
    Australia71.50.5-2.2-4.4-4.5-3.4-2.1-1.5-0.9-0.1
    Taiwan Province of China3.60.80.50.30.60.20.40.20.20.2
    Hong Kong2.10.73.22.52.31.3-0.30.31.81.5
    Singapore9.911.410.311.314.314.212.78.68.97.8
    New Zealand8-1.8-2.3-2.3-4.6-0.72.23.73.22.73.2
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries-1.3-2.2-2.8-3.9-4.5-3.8-3.5-3.0-2.2-2.0
    European Union-2.4-3.6-4.4-5.3-6.5-5.8-5.2-4.4-3.1-2.9
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies2.20.70.4-0.20.92.72.31.11.41.2
    Fiscal balance excluding social security transactions
    United States-4.3-5.2-5.5-6.3-53-4.1-4.0-3.7-3.7-3.6
    Japan-0.7-0.6-0.7-2.0-4.8-5.4-6.5-7.3-5.5-4.9
    Germany2-0.6-2.9-4.0-2.8-3.7-2.6-3.2-3.5-3.3-2.9
    France-1.4-1.5-1.8-3.2-4.3-4.8-4.1-3.5-2.8-2.9
    Italy4-4.7-5.6-5.1-3.9-5.0-4.2-2.7-2.31.00.4
    Canada-1.3-2.4-4.8-5.3-5.0-3.0-1.90.51.92.4
    Central government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies-2.1-2.5-3.0-4.0-4.2-3.6-3.1-2.6-2.0-1.8
    Major industrial countries-2.3-2.8-3.0-4.2-4.3-3.7-3.2-2.8-2.2-2.0
    United States9-2.4-3.0-3.5-4.7-3.9-2.7-2.1-1.4-1.5-1.3
    Japan10-1.2-0.5-0.2-1.7-2.7-3.5-4.2-4.3-3.5-3.3
    Germany2,11-0.9-2.0-1.9-1.3-2.1-1.5-1.5-2 2-1.7-1.5
    France11-1.3-1.4-1.6-2.9-4.2-4.6-3.9-3.5-2.7-3.0
    Italy4-10.7-10.2-10.3-10.4-10.0-9.5-7.4-7.0-3.3-3.9
    United Kingdom1.2-1.1-2.3-7.0-8.0-6.6-5.2-4.5-3.2-2.3
    Canada-3.2-3.9-4.5-4.2-4.9-3.8-3.4-2.0-0.7-0.1
    Other advanced economies-1.2-1.6-2.6-3.2-3.9-3.1-2.5-1.9-1.2-0.9
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries-2.3-2.7-3.1-4.2-4.5-3.8-3.3-2.8-2.2-1.9
    European Union-2.9-3.5-3.8-4.9-5.9-5.3-4.4-3.9-2.7-2.5
    Newly industrialized Asian
    economies1.51.2-0.3-0.30.40.90.80.70.6

    On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box 1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

    Data through 1990 apply to west Germany only.

    Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

    Data from 1996 onward reflect a new accounting methodology.

    Excludes asset sales.

    Data include social security transactions, i.e., the operations of the public pension plan.

    Data exclude net advances, primarily privatization receipts and net policy-related lending.

    Data from 1992 onward are on an accrual basis and not strictly comparable with previous cash-based data.

    Data are on a budget basis.

    Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

    Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

    Table A16.Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances1(In percent of potential GDP)
    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998
    Structural balance2
    Advanced economies-2.6-3.5-3.3-3.7-3.4-2.9-2.7-2.2-1.6-1.5
    Major industrial countries-2.6-3.4-3.1-3.5-3.3-2.7-2.6-2.2-1.6-1.6
    United States-3.0-3.8-3.1-4.1-3.4-2.5-2.1-1.6-1.9-1.7
    Japan1.41.41.50.9-1.1-1.1-2.0-3.3-1.7-1.6
    Germany3-3.2-5.2-3.8-2.3-1.2-2.2-1.8-1.1-1.2
    France-2.3-2.7-2.4-3.5-3.3-3.7-3.2-1.9-1.4-1.8
    Italy4-11.4-12.4-11.2-9.6-8.1-7.6-6.2-5.4-1.7-2.7
    United Kingdom-2.0-3.7-2.7-3.8-4.3-3.9-3.6-2.9-2.1-1.5
    Canada-5.1-4.9-4.9-4.8-4.6-3.6-2.70.91.0
    Other advanced economies-3.0-4.2-4.7-4.6-4.3-3.8-3.6-1.9-1.2-1.0
    Spain-5.0-7.0-8.0-5.9-5.7-4.9-5.3-3.2-2.0-2.4
    Netherlands-4.3-5.8-3.6-4.3-2.6-3.1-3.6-2.2-2.5-2.4
    Belgium-7.1-7.2-7.9-8.2-6.3-4.2-3.3-2.4-2.1-2.0