Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
April 2003
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    ANNEX: SUMMING UP BY THE ACTING CHAIR

    The following remarks by the Acting Chair were made at the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion of the World Economic Outlook on August 27, 2003.

    Executive Directors were encouraged that recent economic data in some countries and forward-looking indicators, particularly in financial markets, point to a strengthening of global growth during the second half of 2003 and in 2004, up from the generally weak level of economic activity in the first half of this year. The prospects for a gradual—albeit moderate—recovery are underpinned by reduced geopolitical tensions, the projected decline in oil prices, and—for some countries—additional policy stimulus.

    Directors observed that, among the major industrial countries, the recovery will likely be led by the United States, where recent data have generally been the strongest and where there is the most policy stimulus in the pipeline. They were also encouraged by the strength of second quarter GDP data for Japan, while noting that ongoing deflation, combined with banking and corporate sector weaknesses, continue to weigh on the outlook. With the subdued activity in the euro area, Directors expected the initial pace of recovery to be moderate, and largely dependent on developments in the rest of the world. Directors noted that growth among emerging markets has, on the whole, held up reasonably well, being supported—to varying degrees—by improvements in policy performance and external financing conditions, lower oil prices, increases in non-oil commodity prices, and the apparently short-lived impact of the SARS outbreak.

    Directors considered that the balance of risks to the world economic outlook has improved in recent months, and the potential for upside shocks is beginning to offset the downside risks, albeit not yet fully. On the upside, developments in financial markets may be suggestive of the prospect that activity may pick up more quickly than currently projected—particularly in the United States, where productivity growth remains robust and corporate balance sheet restructuring is most advanced. At the same time, Directors noted the significant risks that continue to weigh on the downside. One such risk is the possibility of a continuing drag on investment in the aftermath of the equity price bubble. In addition, many Directors saw the continued heavy dependence of global growth on the United States—and the associated large current account imbalances among the major regions—as heightening the risk of potentially disorderly currency movements and resurgent protectionist pressures. The continued strength of housing prices in some countries may also be at risk if interest rates continue to rise sharply. Directors also pointed to the substantial vulnerabilities still confronting key emerging market economies, and several Directors observed that geopolitical tensions—while reduced since April—remain a significant concern.

    Looking ahead, in light of this still fragile global recovery, Directors called for macroeconomic policies to remain appropriately supportive, and for reinvigorated structural reform efforts to strengthen confidence and reduce vulnerabilities over the medium term. In particular, monetary policies in industrial countries should remain supportive for the time being, and—with inflationary pressures very moderate—Directors considered that most regions have scope for further monetary easing if recovery falters or inflation significantly undershoots policy objectives. The recent orderly depreciation of the dollar was generally welcomed. Going forward, most Directors were of the view that the cooperative approach, which will continue to need to underpin the global adjustment process, would be helped by currency adjustments that are more broadly spread, with several emerging Asian economies being relatively well placed to handle greater upward exchange rate flexibility.

    Directors agreed that fiscal policy will have much less room for maneuver. While automatic stabilizers should generally be allowed to operate, they stressed that greater priority needs to be given to credible, high quality fiscal consolidation, in order to address both the recent deterioration in the fiscal outlook in the largest economies and the impending pressures of population aging. Directors also called on industrial and emerging market economies to make sustained further progress in vigorously implementing ongoing structural reforms to strengthen economic growth, support domestic demand, and reduce vulnerabilities. Directors underscored the particular importance at this juncture of a successful outcome of the WTO Cancún Ministerial meeting in September in curbing protectionist pressures and achieving further trade liberalization, as this will help strengthen confidence in the economic recovery. Progress with agricultural reforms—especially among the largest industrial economies—will be critical for boosting the growth prospects for developing economies and making progress with further poverty reduction. In this context, Directors expressed strong support for the initiatives being taken by the Fund and the World Bank to strengthen their assistance in support of developing countries’ efforts to liberalize their trade regimes.

    Major Currency Areas

    Turning to the United States, Directors concurred that growth prospects appear to be firming, with generally encouraging trends in recent economic data and stronger forward-looking indicators. The substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus now in place, combined with the weaker dollar, will add support to this recovery, which, in the view of some Directors, could even be stronger than currently projected. At the same time, however, many Directors considered that the downdrafts to household and business spending implied by the still-stretched balance sheets, the substantial excess capacity, the continued labor market weakness, and the risk of a fall in housing prices, as well as the vulnerabilities arising from the large current account and fiscal deficits, call for continued caution in assessing the strength and durability of the U.S. recovery. Directors agreed that U.S. monetary policy should remain accommodative for the time being, with further easing not ruled out should activity falter or deflationary pressures rise. Directors acknowledged the important role U.S. fiscal policy has played in supporting activity during the current slowdown. However, most Directors emphasized the need to put in place a credible fiscal framework that would correct the recent significant deterioration in the medium-term fiscal outlook and support a gradual correction in global imbalances. They agreed with the view that the fiscal framework should aim at restoring fiscal balance (excluding social security) over the cycle, while putting the Social Security and Medicare systems on a sounder footing to help meet the impending costs of aging populations.

    Notwithstanding the tentative signs of improvement in the outlook for the euro area, Directors observed that short-term prospects for the area remain generally subdued. Among the reasons for the persistent weakness of domestic demand, Directors highlighted the continued over-leveraging of corporate balance sheets and the impact of rising unemployment on consumer confidence and spending. Some Directors cautioned that the euro’s recent appreciation might constrain the pace of recovery. Looking ahead, Directors expected the area’s prospects to strengthen gradually, supported by a pickup in external demand, the winding down of corporate balance sheet adjustments, and continued low interest rates. They welcomed the ECB’s interest rate cut in June, and saw scope for further easing if a sluggish recovery or further appreciation of the euro lead to an undershooting of inflation. Directors agreed that medium-term fiscal consolidation should remain a priority in the larger euro area economies. At the same time, many Directors acknowledged the challenge of striking an appropriate balance between short- and medium-term policy objectives. They agreed with the view that, where underpinned by tangible, credible, and high quality consolidation measures and structural reform efforts, a cumulative fiscal adjustment of 1 ½ percent of GDP over 2004-06—with the automatic stabilizers allowed to operate fully around this consolidation path—would strike such a balance. Some other Directors, however, cautioned against any departure from the commitment to achieve a steady underlying fiscal adjustment of ½ percent of GDP a year. Directors were encouraged by recent reforms in labor and product markets and pension arrangements. They emphasized that further efforts will be required to meet the Lisbon Summit targets, prepare for the economic and fiscal pressures of aging populations, and enhance Europe’s contribution to balanced and sustained world growth.

    Directors welcomed the pickup in economic activity in Japan since mid-2002. The outlook remains clouded, however, by entrenched deflation and weaknesses in the corporate, financial, and public sector balance sheets. While acknowledging progress in tackling the economic challenges facing Japan, Directors reiterated that a bold and broad-ranging strategy will remain key for laying a firm foundation for sustained medium-term growth. Priorities should include forceful measures to strengthen the banking sector—particularly through accelerated disposal of nonperforming loans and targeted use of public funds to recapitalize weak but systemically important banks—and rapid corporate restructuring—including through effective use of the new Industrial Revitalization Corporation. While welcoming the Bank of Japan’s recent initiative to buy asset-backed securities, most Directors saw a need for a more aggressive monetary policy approach to tackle deflation effectively. This could include purchases of a wider array of assets, allowing monetary policy to work both through asset prices and through liquidity growth accompanied with a clear public communications strategy committing to end deflation in a limited time period. Many Directors were, however, concerned that extending such purchases to foreign currency assets might result in an unwarranted depreciation of the yen. To address the rapid buildup in public debt and impending pressures from population aging, Directors underscored the need for an ambitious and fully elaborated medium-term strategy to restore Japan’s public finances to a sustainable basis.

    Emerging Markets

    Directors noted that growth has remained relatively robust in most emerging market regions, with stronger macroeconomic policies and structural reforms, as well as the strengthening in the major industrial countries contributing to improved prospects in an increasing number of countries. Nevertheless, prospects and vulnerabilities still vary widely among the emerging market economies, and policy efforts backed by measures to strengthen underlying institutions and reduce financial vulnerabilities need to be more widely deployed.

    Directors welcomed the emerging recovery in Latin America, which has been helped by stronger global growth, substantial real exchange rate depreciations, and improved emerging bond market conditions. Directors were encouraged by the rebound in economic activity in Argentina, but stressed that sustained progress will require implementation of credible plans to restore solvency to the public finances and restructure the sovereign debt, strengthen the banking system and restructure the private corporate debt, and adequately protect the poor. In Brazil, steady policies have helped strengthen financial market confidence and reduce interest spreads, and the government’s continued reform efforts and fiscal discipline will remain critical to underpin confidence and the recovery of domestic demand. For the region as a whole, Directors underscored the continued need for macroeconomic and structural reforms to enhance countries’ ability to withstand economic shocks. The reforms should include, first and foremost, further steps to reduce public debt to more manageable levels, as well as measures to strengthen banking systems and central bank autonomy to pursue low inflation. In addition, trade, labor market, and regulatory, judicial, and institutional reforms will need to be pursued to improve productivity, equity, and governance. Directors considered that the current favorable financial market conditions provide a welcome opportunity for national authorities in the region to press ahead with ambitious reforms that they should not fail to seize.

    Directors welcomed the quick recovery of emerging Asia from the slowdown in the first half of 2003 stemming largely from the war in Iraq and from SARS, and commended the appropriate and timely policy actions taken by a number of countries. Although domestic demand has been increasingly supportive of activity in many countries in recent years, the global cycle remains the preponderant determinant of cyclical developments in the region. Directors felt therefore that policies that promote stronger domestically sourced growth will remain a priority for the region. They welcomed the staffs analysis of the accumulation of foreign reserves in emerging Asia, which should help better inform the debate about desirable policy choices for the region going forward. The analysis suggests that for emerging Asia as a whole, reserve accumulation until 2001 had appeared broadly consistent with fundamentals. Directors noted the further increases in reserves in 2002-03. They acknowledged that these increases need to be assessed in light of country-specific characteristics, including the benefits perceived by many countries in holding high levels of reserves as insurance against crises in the context of continuing vulnerability to external shocks and an unfinished reform agenda. Some Directors looked forward, in this context, to further analysis of the level of reserve adequacy in emerging market economies. Most Directors nevertheless supported the view that at this point some slowdown in the rate of accumulation of reserves in several countries in emerging Asia may be desirable, both from a domestic and a multilateral perspective. In these countries, allowing greater exchange rate flexibility would confer a number of benefits in support of ongoing reforms, by reducing risks of future crises, making domestic growth less dependent on the vagaries of the global cycle, and raising consumption opportunities for residents in cases where exchange rates may be undervalued. Several Directors acknowledged that the choice of exchange rate regimes and the timing of any changes in these are matters for national policy decisions.

    Economic prospects for the countries in central and eastern Europe continue to be generally favorable, although growth will likely depend heavily on the pace of the euro area recovery. Directors agreed that early and substantial progress on fiscal consolidation will be essential in many countries, given already difficult fiscal positions and pressures arising from population aging and EU accession. Going forward, a key challenge facing EU accession countries will be to continue to make strong progress on the broad reform agenda to help ensure their successful EMU participation.

    Growth in the CIS countries has been buoyed by robust consumption growth, and Directors agreed that prospects for the region remain generally favorable provided structural reforms are accelerated. Reform priorities should include measures to foster private sector development and strengthen financial regulation and supervision.

    Directors observed that growth in the Middle East has picked up, largely on account of higher oil prices and production. The oil market outlook points, however, to potential risks to fiscal and growth prospects for the major oil exporters, while geopolitical tensions continue to affect the outlook for the region as a whole. Directors agreed that the key policy challenge facing the region will be to accelerate medium-term growth and absorb the rapidly growing labor force. They generally welcomed the staff’s analysis of the growth performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the last two decades for its insights on how best to meet this challenge. The analysis suggests that efforts to reduce the relatively large size of government consumption and to strengthen institutions could, in many countries in the region, significantly contribute to a pickup in economic activity. The importance of policies aimed at broadening labor market participation and of strengthening the role of the financial sector in supporting private sector investments was also highlighted.

    Directors were encouraged that growth in Africa has remained remarkably resilient during the global downturn, reflecting improved macroeconomic policies, higher commodity prices, and debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Nevertheless, prospects for 2003 are likely to be dampened by adverse weather conditions and prevailing geopolitical uncertainties and civil unrest, although Directors acknowledged the progress being made with resolving conflicts in the region. Directors expressed concern that, on current projections, growth in Africa will remain far too low to meet the Millennium Development Goals. They saw the sustained implementation of the multifaceted strategy embedded in the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) as key to strengthening the region’s outlook. This should include policies aimed at reducing conflict and improving political governance; the promotion of competition, trade, and foreign investment, underpinned by measures to improve macroeconomic policy frameworks; and renewed efforts to develop the health care, education, infrastructure, and agriculture sectors. Directors underscored that the domestic reform efforts will need to be supported by additional external assistance, including higher aid flows, debt relief, and—most important of all—the opening of industrial country markets more fully to developing country exports.

    Directors considered the staffs assessment and analysis of public debt in emerging market economies to be a timely contribution to ongoing efforts to identify key sources of vulnerability. The analysis notes that, after rising quite sharply in recent years, public debt in emerging market economies, at about 70 percent of GDP on average, now exceeds the average level in industrial countries. Directors recognized that the sustainable level of public debt varies among countries, depending on the characteristics of each country, and that generalizations based on debt thresholds should be avoided. Most Directors nevertheless shared the view that, for many emerging market economies, the level of debt that can prudently be held without giving rise to possible sustainability concerns is often quite low. Moreover, high public debt levels may adversely affect economic activity and constrain the flexibility to use fiscal policy as a policy tool. In highlighting some of the policy conclusions of the staff’s analysis, Directors emphasized that strong and sustained fiscal and structural policy reforms—sometimes in combination with an initial debt restructuring—will be key to restoring public debt sustainability. These should include, in most cases, tax and expenditure reforms; steps to improve the credibility of fiscal policy; measures to limit fiscal risks—including from exchange rate and interest rate movements and contingent liabilities; improved debt management; and reforms to boost sustainable growth. Some Directors pointed to financial market inefficiencies that may help explain over-lending to governments accumulating rapidly rising public debts.

    Directors also welcomed the staff analysis of the impact of industrial country exchange rate volatility on developing country economic performance. They generally endorsed the conclusion that the negative effects of this volatility on trade, capital inflows, and the likelihood of exchange rate crises in developing countries, appear on average to be quite limited. Nevertheless, the spillovers tend to be larger in countries where the currency is pegged to a specific industrial country currency, where external debt is high, and where there is a substantial mismatch between the currency composition of debt and of trade. In many cases, more flexible exchange rate regimes and steps to reduce external debt—together with access to effective hedging instruments in currency markets—will therefore need to be part of efforts to reduce vulnerabilities.

    Finally, Executive Directors placed on record their strong appreciation for Kenneth Rogoff’s contributions to the IMF’s multilateral surveillance over the past two years, both through the World Economic Outlook and through his stimulating presentations on World Economic and Market Developments, which were highlights of the Board agenda.

    STATISTICAL APPENDIX

    The statistical appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises five sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables.

    The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2003-04 and the medium-term scenario for 2005-08 are summarized in the first section. The second section presents a brief description of changes to the database and statistical tables. The third section provides a general description of the data, and of the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the fourth section.

    The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through late August 2003. The figures for 2003 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; since they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

    Assumptions

    Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the period July 1-28, 2003. For 2003 and 2004, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.389 and 1.388, respectively, U.S. dollar/euro conversion rate of 1.12 for both years, and U.S. dollar/yen conversion rates of 118.6 and 117.8, respectively.

    Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected advanced economies are described in Box A1.

    It is assumed that the price of oil will average $28.50 a barrel in 2003 and $25.50 a barrel in 2004.

    With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 1.3 percent in 2003 and 2.0 percent in 2004; that the three-month interbank deposit rate for the euro will average 2.2 percent in 2003 and 2.4 percent in 2004; and that the three-month certificate of deposit rate in Japan will average 0.1 percent in 2003 and 0.2 in 2004.

    With respect to introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998 the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member states adopting the euro are:

    1 euro =13.7603Austrian schillings
    =40.3399Belgian francs
    =1.95583Deutsche mark
    =5.94573Finnish markkaa
    =6.55957French francs
    =340.750Greek drachma1
    =0.787564Irish pound
    =1,936.27Italian lire
    =40.3399Luxembourg francs
    =2.20371Netherlands guilders
    =200.482Portuguese escudos
    =166.386Spanish pesetas

    See Box 5.4 in the October 1998 World Economic Outlook for details on how the conversion rates were established.

    What’s New

    • No changes have been introduced for this issue of the World Economic Outlook.

    Box A1.Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies

    The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the World Economic Outlook are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. In cases where the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless otherwise indicated. Specific assumptions used in some of the advanced economies follow (see also Tables 1416 in the Statistical Appendix for data on fiscal and structural balances).1

    United States. The fiscal projections are based on the Administration’s budget projections (July 15, 2003) adjusted to take into account (1) differences between macroeconomic assumptions; (2) the likelihood that additional Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) relief would be provided; and (3) higher growth of discretionary and Medicare spending, in line with Congressional Budget Office projections. The 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are assumed to be made permanent, in line with Administration policy statements.

    Japan. The medium-term fiscal projections assume implementation of planned policies in the social security system. For the rest of the general government (excluding social security), expenditure and revenues are adjusted in line with the current government target to achieve a primary balance by the early 2010s.

    Germany. Fiscal projections for 2002-06 are based on the updated Stability Program of December 2002, adjusted for (1) the Spring 2003 official estimates for tax revenue over the medium term; (2) the new fiscal measures announced in July in the content of the draft budget for the Bund for 2000; and (3) the IMF staffs macroeconomic projections.

    France. The projections are based on the authorities’ March 2003 estimates of the budget outturn, the 2004—06 structural adjustment envisaged in the Stability Report, and the IMF staffs macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, the projections assume that the structural balance will be broadly achieved in 2008. For 2007-08, the IMF staff assumes unchanged tax policies and real expenditure growth in line with the Stability Program (2004-06).

    Italy. Fiscal projections for 2004 and beyond assume a constant structural primary balance.

    United Kingdom. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the 2003 Budget Report and incorporate the most recent data from the Office for National Statistics, including provisional budgetary outturns throughout June 2003.

    Canada. Projections are based on the 2003 budget, released on February 18, 2003. After fiscal year 2002/03, it is assumed that new measures—aimed at reducing taxes and introducing new spending initiatives—are implemented such that the federal government maintains budget surpluses equivalent to the contingency reserve in the budget. The consolidated fiscal projections are assumed to be consistent with the provinces’ stated medium-term targets.

    Australia. The fiscal projections through the fiscal year 2005/06 are based on the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2002-03, published by the Australian treasury in November 2002. For the remainder of the projection period, unchanged policies are assumed.

    Austria. Fiscal projections for 2003-04 are based on the budget for 2003 and 2004, adjusted for the difference between budget assumptions and IMF staff projections. Projections for 2005-07 are based on the Austrian authorities’ plans—set out in the updated Stability Program for 2003-07—to implement tax cuts in 2005 and gradually reduce the structural budget deficit thereafter, with the objective of maintaining a broadly balanced budget over the cycle. These plans are consistent with an initial widening of the structural budget deficit in 2005-06 and improvements thereafter.

    Belgium. Fiscal projections for 2003 and 2004 assume unchanged policies. The projections for subsequent years are based on the deficit targets included in the government program of June 2003.

    Denmark. Projections for 2003 and 2004 are aligned with the authorities’ budget and latest projections, respectively, and adjusted for IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections. For the years 2005 to 2008 the projections are in line with the authorities’ medium-term framework—adjusted for IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections—targeting an average budget surplus of 1.5–2.5 percent of GDP, supported by a ceiling real public consumption growth.

    Korea. For 2003, it is assumed that the supplementary budget (0.7 percent of GDP) proposed by the government is approved by the National Assembly. Fiscal policy is consistent with achieving a balanced budget, excluding social security funds, in the medium term.

    Netherlands. Projections for 2003 reflect the 2003 budget, adjusted for the IMF staffs macroeconomic assumptions. For 2004-07, the forecasts are based on the authorities’ multiyear framework as laid out in the June 2003 update of the Stability Program. The framework is based on binding multiyear ceilings for real expenditure.

    Portugal. Fiscal projections for 2003 build on the authorities’ targets as published in their Stability Program (December 2002), taking into account actual fiscal outturns in 2003, as available. Projections for 2004 and beyond assume a constant structural primary balance.

    Spain. Fiscal projections through 2006 are based on the policies outlined in the national authorities’ updated Stability Program of December 2002, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections. In subsequent years, the fiscal projections assume no significant changes in these policies.

    Sweden. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the October 2002 Budget report. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from Statistics Sweden, including provisional budgetary outturns through November 2002.

    Switzerland. Projections for 2003 are based on federal budget plans and IMF staff projections for lower levels of government. Projections for 2004—06 are based on the official financial plans (which include measures to strengthen the finances of social security), adjusted for the IMF staffs macroeconomic projections. Beyond 2006, the general government’s balance is assumed to remain unchanged.

    Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: official interest rates will therefore increase when economic indicators suggest that prospective inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range; and they will decrease when indicators suggest that prospective inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that prospective output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant. On this basis, the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits is assumed to average 1.3 percent in 2003 and 2.0 percent in 2004. The projected path for U.S. dollar short-term interest rates reflects the assumption implicit in prevailing forward rates that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin to raise interest rates in late 2003. The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.1 percent in 2003 and 0.2 percent in 2004, with the current monetary policy framework being maintained. The rate on six-month euro deposits is assumed to average 2.2 percent in 2003 and 2.4 percent in 2004. Changes in interest rate assumptions compared with the April 2003 World Economic Outlook are summarized in Table 1.1.

    1 The output gap is actual less potential output, as a percent of potential output. Structural balances are expressed as a percent of potential output. The structural budget balance is the budgetary position that would be observed if the level of actual output coincided with potential output. Changes in the structural budget balance consequently include effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other noncyclical fluctuations in the budget balance. The computations of structural budget balances are based on IMF staff estimates of potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities (see the October 1993 World Economic Outlook, Annex I). Net debt is defined as gross debt less financial assets of the general government, which include assets held by the social security insurance system. Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.

    Data and Conventions

    Data and projections for 182 countries form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook (the World Economic Outlook database). The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and area departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

    Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the national compilation of statistics, including the analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The World Economic Outlook database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

    The completion in 1993 of the comprehensive revision of the standardized System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA) and the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM) represented important improvements in the standards of economic statistics and analysis.2 The IMF was actively involved in both projects, particularly the new Balance of Payments Manual, which reflects the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions. Key changes introduced with the new Manual were summarized in Box 13 of the May 1994 World Economic Outlook. The process of adapting country balance of payments data to the definitions of the new BPM began with the May 1995 World Economic Outlook. However, full concordance with the BPM is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, and hence the World Economic Outlook estimates are still only partially adapted to the BPM.

    The members of the European Union have adopted a harmonized system for the compilation of the national accounts, referred to as ESA 1995. All national accounts data from 1995 onward are presented on the basis of the new system. Revision by national authorities of data prior to 1995 to conform to the new system has progressed, but has in some cases not been completed. In such cases, historical World Economic Outlook data have been carefully adjusted to avoid breaks in the series. Users of EU national accounts data prior to 1995 should nevertheless exercise caution until such time as the revision of historical data by national statistical agencies has been fully completed. See Box 1.2, Revisions in National Accounts Methodologies, in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook

    Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change. Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the developing and transition country groups, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply.

    • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and the growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.

    • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities (PPPs) as a share of total world or group GDP.3

    • Composites for data relating to the domestic economy for the euro area (12 member countries throughout the entire period unless otherwise noted) are aggregates of national source data using weights based on 1995 ECU exchange rates.

    • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

    • Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

    For central and eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies (through 1990) are converted to U.S. dollars at the implicit U.S. dollar/ruble conversion rates obtained from each country’s national currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and for the ruble.

    Classification of Countries

    The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into three major groups: advanced economies, developing countries, and countries in transition.4 Rather than being based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, this classification has evolved over time with the objective of facilitating analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful organization of data. A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members, and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been compiled. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, whereas San Marino, among the advanced economies, is an example of an economy for which a database has not been completed. It should also be noted that, owing to a lack of data, only three of the former republics of the dissolved Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Slovenia) are included in the group composites for countries in transition.

    Each of the three main country groups is further divided into a number of subgroups. Among the advanced economies, the seven largest in terms of GDP, collectively referred to as the major advanced countries, are distinguished as a subgroup, and so are the 15 current members of the European Union, the 12 members of the euro area, and the four newly industrialized Asian economies. The developing countries are classified by region, as well as into a number of analytical and other groups. A regional breakdown is also used for the classification of the countries in transition. Table A provides an overview of these standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average 2002 shares of groups in aggregate PPP-valued GDP, total exports of goods and services, and population.

    General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

    Advanced Economies

    The 29 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The seven largest in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. The current members of the European Union (15 countries), the euro area (12 countries), and the newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables for the European Union and the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

    Table A.Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20021(Percent of total for group or world)
    Number of CountriesGDPExports of Goods and ServicesPopulation
    Share of total for →
    Advanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorld
    Advanced economies29100.055.7100.074.8100.015.4
    United States37.921.116.512.430.24.7
    Euro area1228.215.741.731.232.25.0
    Germany8.04.412.29.18.71.3
    France5.73.26.85.16.41.0
    Italy5.53.05.44.06.10.9
    Japan12.87.17.85.813.42.1
    United Kingdom5.63.16.85.16.31.0
    Canada3.62.05.13.83.30.5
    Other advanced economies2220.911.639.429.525.63.9
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2779.144.060.645.474.411.5
    European Union1535.319.751.838.840.06.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies46.13.413.09.78.61.3
    Developing countriesWorldDeveloping CountriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorld
    Developing countries Regional groups125100.038.1100.020.3100.078.2
    Africa518.53.29.21.916.012.5
    Sub-Sahara486.52.56.81.414.511.3
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa463.81.53.60.710.78.4
    Developing Asia2560.322.948.59.967.052.3
    China33.312.722.44.626.520.7
    India12.54.84.50.921.817.0
    Other Asia2314.55.521.74.418.614.6
    Middle East and Turkey1610.54.020.14.16.45.0
    Western Hemisphere3320.87.922.24.510.78.4
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel189.13.519.33.97.55.8
    Nonfuel10790.934.680.716.492.572.3
    Of which, primary products293.71.43.20.67.96.2
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries10859.122.561.912.670.054.7
    Of which, official financing3412.14.610.62.225.219.7
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1997–20014820.37.717.93.628.122.0
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries405.22.04.60.914.010.9
    Middle East and north Africa2110.54.018.93.87.55.8
    Countries in transitionWorldCountries in transitionWorldCountries in transitionWorld
    Countries in transition28100.06.3100.04.8100.06.4
    Central and eastern Europe1537.02.353.22.628.81.9
    CIS and Mongolia1363.03.946.82.371.24.6
    Russia42.82.732.11.536.42.3
    Excluding Russia1220.21.314.70.734.82.2

    The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs.

    Advanced economies excluding major advanced economies.

    Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup
    Other Subgroups
    Major Currency AreasEuro area1/European UnionNewly industrialized Asian economiesMajor advanced economiesOther advanced economies
    • United States

    • Euro area

    • Japan

    • Austria

    • Belgium

    • Denmark

    • Finland

    • France

    • Germany

    • Greece

    • Italy

    • Ireland

    • Luxembourg

    • Netherlands

    • Portugal

    • Spam

    • Sweden

    • United Kingdom

    • Hong Kong SAR2

    • Korea

    • Singapore

    • Taiwan Province of China

    • Canada

    • France

    • Germany

    • Italy

    • Japan

    • United Kingdom United States

    • Australia

    • Austria

    • Belgium

    • Cyprus

    • Denmark

    • Finland

    • Greece

    • Hong Kong SAR

    • Iceland

    • Ireland

    • Israel

    • Korea

    • Luxembourg

    • Netherlands

    • New Zealand

    • Norway

    • Portugal

    • Singapore

    • Spain

    • Sweden

    • Switzerland

    • Taiwan

    • Province of China

    Italics indicate countries that are members of the euro area.

    On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

    In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the eastern Länder (i.e., the former German Democratic Republic). Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. Hence, in tables featuring data expressed as annual percent change, these apply to west Germany in years up to and including 1991, but to unified Germany from 1992 onward. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

    Developing Countries

    The group of developing countries (125 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as advanced economies or as countries in transition, together with a few dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.

    The regional breakdowns of developing countries in the World Economic Outlook conform to the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) classification—Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, and Western Hemisphere—with one important exception. Because all of the non-advanced countries in Europe except Malta and Turkey are included in the group of countries in transition, the World Economic Outlook classification places these two countries in a combined Middle East and Turkey region. In both classifications, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in this region, not in Africa. Three additional regional groupings—two of them constituting part of Africa and one a subgroup of Asia—are included in the World Economic Outlook because of their analytical significance. These are sub-Sahara, sub-Sahara excluding Nigeria and South Africa, and Asia excluding China and India.

    The developing countries are also classified according to analytical criteria and into other groups. The analytical criteria reflect countries’ composition of export earnings and other income from abroad, a distinction between net creditor and net debtor countries, and, for the net debtor countries, financial criteria based on external financing source and experience with external debt servicing. Included as “other groups” are the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), and Middle East and north Africa (MENA). The detailed composition of developing countries in the regional, analytical, and other groups is shown in Tables C through E.

    Table C.European Union Accession Candidates
    BulgariaLatviaSlovak Rep.
    CyprusLithuaniaSlovenia
    Czech Rep.MaltaTurkey
    EstoniaPoland
    HungaryRomania

    The first analytical criterion, by source of export earnings, distinguishes between categories: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68).

    The financial criteria focus on net creditor and net debtor countries, which are differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by official external financing and by experience with debt servicing.5

    The other groups of developing countries constitute the HIPCs and MENA countries. The first group comprises the countries (except Nigeria) considered by the IMF and the World Bank for their debt initiative, known as the HIPC Initiative.6 Middle East and north Africa, also referred to as the MENA countries, is a World Economic Outlook group, whose composition straddles the Africa and Middle East and Europe regions. It is defined as the Arab League countries plus the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    Countries in Transition

    The group of countries in transition (28 countries) is divided into two regional subgroups: central and eastern Europe, and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia. The detailed country composition is shown in Table F.

    Table D.Developing Countries by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
    FuelNonfuel, of Which Primary Products
    Africa Sub-SaharaAngola

    Congo. Rep. of

    Equatorial

    Guinea

    Gabon

    Nigeria


    Botswana

    Burkina

    Faso

    Burundi

    Chad

    Congo, Democratic Rep. of

    Côte d’Ivoire

    Ethiopia

    Ghana

    Guinea

    Guinea-Bissau

    Liberia

    Malawi

    Mali

    Mauritania

    Namibia

    Niger

    Rwanda

    Sierra Leone

    Somalia

    Togo

    Uganda

    Zambia

    Zimbabwe
    North AfricaAlgeria
    Developing AsiaBrunei Darussalam

    Afghanistan, Islamic State of

    Papua New Guinea

    Solomon Islands
    Middle East and TurkeyBahrain

    Iran, Islamic Rep. of

    Iraq

    Kuwait

    Libya

    Oman

    Qatar

    Saudi Arabia

    United Arab Emirates

    Yemen, Rep. of
    Western HemisphereVenezuela

    Bolivia

    Chile

    Guyana
    Table E.Developing Countries by Region and Main External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Countries
    By main external financing source
    CountriesNet debtor countriesOf which, official financing
    Africa
    Sub-Sahara
    Angola*
    Benin**
    Botswana
    Burkina Faso**
    Burundi**
    Cameroon**
    Cape Verde*
    Central African Rep.**
    Chad**
    Comoros**
    Congo, Democratic Rep. of*
    Congo, Rep. of**
    Côte d’Ivoire*
    Djibouti**
    Equatorial Guinea*
    Eritrea*
    Ethiopia**
    Gabon**
    Gambia, The*
    Ghana**
    Guinea**
    Guinea-Bissau**
    Kenya
    Lesotho*
    Liberia*
    Madagascar**
    Malawi**
    Mali**
    Mauritania**
    Mauritius*
    Mozambique. Rep, of**
    Namibia
    Niger**
    Nigeria**
    Rwanda**
    Sào Tome and Principe**
    Senegal*
    Seychelles*
    Sierra Leone*
    Somalia*
    South Africa*
    Sudan*
    Swaziland*
    Tanzania*
    Togo**
    Uganda*
    Zambia*
    Zimbabwe**
    North Africa
    Algeria
    Morocco*
    Tunisia*
    Developing Asia
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of**
    Bangladesh**
    Bhutan**
    Brunei Darussalam
    Cambodia**
    China*
    Fiji**
    India**
    Indonesia**
    Kiribati
    Lao People’s Democratic Rep,**
    Malaysia*
    Maldives*
    Myanmar**
    Nepal**
    Pakistan**
    Papua New Guinea**
    Philippines*
    Samoa*
    Solomon islands**
    Sri Lanka*
    Thailand*
    Tonga**
    Vanuatu**
    Vietnam**
    Middle East and Turkey
    Bahrain*
    Egypt*
    Iran, Islamic Rep. of
    Iraq*
    Jordan**
    Kuwait
    Lebanon*
    Libya
    Malta*
    Oman*
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Syrian Arab Rep.*
    Turkey*
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen, Rep. of**
    Western Hemisphere
    Antigua and Barbuda*
    Argentina*
    Bahamas, The*
    Barbados*
    Belize*
    Bolivia*
    Brazil*
    Chile*
    Colombia*
    Costa Rica*
    Dominica*
    Dominican Rep.*
    Ecuador**
    El Salvador**
    Grenada**
    Guatemala*
    Guyana*
    Haiti**
    Honduras**
    Jamaica*
    Mexico*
    Netherlands Antilles*
    Nicaragua*
    Panama**
    Paraguay*
    Peru*
    St. Kitts and Nevis*
    St. Lucia**
    St, Vincent and the Grenadines*
    Suriname*
    Trinidad and Tobago*
    Uruguay*
    Venezuela*

    One common characteristic of these countries is the transitional state of their economies from a centrally administered system to one based on market principles. Another is that this transition involves the transformation of sizable industrial sectors whose capital stocks have proven largely obsolete. Although several other countries are also “in transition” from partially command-based economic systems toward market-based systems (including China, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Vietnam, and a number of African countries), most of these are largely rural, lowincome economies for whom the principal challenge is one of economic development. These countries are therefore classified in the developing country group rather than in the group of countries in transition.

    Table F.Other Developing Country Groups
    CountriesHeavily indented Poor CountriesMiddle East and North Africa
    Africa
    Sub-Sahara
    Angola*
    Benin*
    Burkina Faso*
    Burundi*
    Cameroon*
    Central African Rep.
    Chad*
    Comoros
    Congo, Democratic Rep. of*
    Congo. Rep. of*
    Côte d’Ivoire*
    Ethiopia*
    Gambia, The*
    Ghana*
    Guinea*
    Guinea-Bissau*
    Kenya*
    Liberia*
    Madagascar*
    Malawi*
    Mali*
    Mauritania**
    Mozambique. Rep. of*
    Niger*
    Rwanda*
    Sào Tome and Principe*
    Senegal*
    Sierra Leone*
    Somalia**
    Sudan**
    Tanzania*
    Togo*
    Uganda*
    Zambia*
    North Africa
    Algeria*
    Morocco*
    Tunisia*
    Developing Asia
    Lao People’s Democratic Rep.*
    Myanmar*
    Vietnam*
    Middle East and Turkey
    Bahrain*
    Egypt*
    Iran, Islamic Rep of*
    Iraq*
    Jordan*
    Kuwait*
    Lebanon*
    Libya*
    Oman*
    Qatar*
    Saudi Arabia*
    Syrian Arab Rep.*
    United Arab Emirates*
    Yemen. Rep. of*
    Western Hemisphere
    Bolivia*
    Guyana*
    Honduras*
    Nicaragua*
    Table G.Countries in Transition by Region
    Central and Eastern EuropeCommonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia
    • Albania

    • Bosnia and Herzegovina

    • Bulgaria

    • Croatia

    • Czech Republic

    • Estonia

    • Hungary

    • Latvia

    • Lithuania

    • Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of

    • Poland

    • Romania

    • Serbia and Montenegro

    • Slovak Republic

    • Slovenia

    • Armenia

    • Azerbaijan

    • Belarus

    • Georgia

    • Kazakhstan

    • Kyrgyz Republic

    • Moldova

    • Mongolia

    • Russia

    • Tajikistan

    • Turkmenistan

    • Ukraine

    • Uzbekistan

    List of Tables

    Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

    45. Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

    46. Developing Countries—Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators

    Table 1.Summary of World Output1(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985-941995-2004199519961997199819992000200120022003200.1
    World3.33.63.74.04.22.83.64.82.43.03.24.1
    Advanced economies3.02.72.83.03.52.73.43.91.01.81.82.9
    United States2.93.22.73.64.44.34.13.80.32.42.63.9
    Euro area2.02.21.42.32.92.83.51.50.90.51.9
    Japan23.41.31.83.51.9−1.10.22.80.40.22.01.4
    Other advanced economies3.83.34.33.64.21.94.85.11.63.01.93.1
    Developing countries5.25.16.16.65.93.53.95.74.14.65.05.6
    Regional groups
    Africa1.93.63.05.63.03.22.73.03.73.13.74.8
    Developing Asia7.76.69.08.36.64.06.26.85.86.46.46.5
    Middle East and Turkey33.04.24.05.36.13.70.96.02.04.85.14.6
    Western Hemisphere3.12.21.83.65.22.30.24.00.7−0.11.13.6
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel2.43.72.94.25.23.01.05.24.42.73.15.2
    Nonfuel5.55.26.46.96.03.54.25.84.14.85.15.7
    of which, primary products3.33.76.66.14.22.81.42.32.62.32.55.8
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries4.03.84.75.64.81.62.84.72.33.03.84.6
    of which, official financing4.63.76.26.24.2−2.62.54.43.83.64.05.0
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1997-20013.73.45.05.14.2−0.72.04.53.43.13.24.4
    Countries in transition−2.12.8−1.5−0.61.9−0.94.17.15.14.24.94.7
    Central and eastern Europe3.45.54.02.52.52.33.93.13.03.44.1
    Commonwealth of Independent
    States and Mongolia2.4−5.5−3.51.4−3.25.29.16.44.95.85.0
    Russia2.4−4.1−3.61.4−5.36.310.05.04.36.05.0
    Excluding Russia2.5−8.6−3.11.51.42.76.99.25.95.45.0
    Memorandum
    Median growth rate
    Advanced economies3.12.92.93.53.83.63.94.21.41.91.42.6
    Developing countries3.53.94.54.64.73.63.54.03.22.73.64.2
    Countries in transition−1.93.90.43.23.73.93.35.25.04.35.04.6
    Output per capita
    Advanced economies2.42.12.12.32.82.12.83.40.51.41.42.5
    Developing countries3.23.54.44.94.21.92.34.12.53.13.54.1
    Countries in transition−2.63.0−1.5−0.61.9−0.84.27.35.44.55.25.0
    World growth based on market exchange rates2.72.82.83.33.52.23.04.01.31.92.33.2
    Value of world output in billions of U.S. dollars
    At market exchange rates20,63031,63929,13429,84929,74029,54530,59831,41131,08632,17735,59937,251
    At purchasing power parities25,62643,50733,98936,02438,24939,72441,73544,58146,61648,44351,14954,562

    Real GDP.

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Includes Malta.

    Table 2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1985-941995-20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004200220032004
    Real GDP
    Advanced economies3.02.72.83.03.52.73.43.91.01.81.82.9
    United States2.93.22.73.64.44.34.13.80.32.42.63.92.93.33.8
    Euro area2.02.21.42.32.92.83.51.50.90.51.91.20.62.1
    Germany2.71.31.70.81.42.02.02.90.80.21.50.50.11.4
    France2.12.11.81.11.93.63.24.22.11.20.52.01.40.82.4
    Italy2.11.72.91.12.01.81.73.11.80.40.41.70.90.32.0
    Spain2.93.22.82.44.04.34.24.22.72.02.22.81.92.43.1
    Netherlands2.72.43.03.03.84.34.03.51.20.2−0.51.40.3−0.52.3
    Belgium2.32.02.30.83.92.13.23.70.80.70.81.91.70.72.2
    Austria2.61.91.62.01.63.92.73.50.71.00.71.51.11.02.0
    Finland1.23.53.84.06.35.34.15.60.71.61.32.62.42.21.1
    Greece1.73.52.12.43.63.43.64.24.14.04.13.93.43.23.9
    Portugal3.32.52.93.54.04.63.83.71.60.4−0.81.6−1.30.92.0
    Ireland23.77.69.98.111.18.611.310.16.26.91.03.87.61.14.2
    Luxembourg6.14.43.53.77.77.56.08.91.00.51.54.0
    Japan33.41.31.83.51.9−1.10.22.80.40.22.01.42.51.41.6
    United Kingdom2.62.52.92.63.42.92.43.12.11.91.72.42.31.42.9
    Canada2.53.42.81.64.24.15.55.31.93.31.93.03.51.93.4
    Korea8.25.08.96.85.0−6.710.99.33.16.32.54.76.81.75.4
    Australia3.23.73.54.33.85.34.52.82.73.63.03.52.74.32.4
    Taiwan Province of China8.04.36.46.16.74.65.45.9−2.23.52.73.84.24.14.0
    Sweden1.72.74.01.32.43.64.64.41.11.91.42.01.31.12.4
    Switzerland1.61.10.50.31.72.41.53.20.90.1−0.41.40.4−0.32.2
    Hong Kong SAR6.22.83.94.35.1−5.03.410.20.82.31.52.85.1−0.84.5
    Denmark1.82.32.62.53.02.52.62.91.42.11.21.81.51.81.8
    Norway2.92.84.45.35.22.62.12.81.91.00.62.3
    Israel5.12.86.84.73.33.02.67.4−0.9−1.00.72.10.8U2.0
    Singapore7.84.38.08.18.5−0.96.49.4−2.42.20.54.23.03.13.7
    New Zealand2.23.04.34.02.0−0.23.94.02.64.42.62.94.52.13.6
    Cyprus5.53.76.11.92.55.04.85.24.12.22.03.8
    Iceland2.03.30.15.24.75.53.95.52.9−0.52.33.7
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.82.52.42.73.22.83.03.50.81.61.82.82.32.12.9
    European Union2.42.22.51.72.63.02.83.61.71.10.82.0
    Newly industrialized Asian economies7.84.57.56.35.8−2.48.08.40.84.82.34.25.82.55.1
    Real total domestic demand
    Advanced economies3.12.72.73.03.33.04.03.80.81.82.12.7
    United States2.83.62.53.74.75.45.04.40.43.02.83.8−3.7−3.13.7
    Euro area−0.11.92.11.01.83.63.52.91.00.11.12.00.81.12.3
    Germany2.71.01.70.30.62.42.81.8−0.8−1.61.02.1−0.81.32.1
    France2.12.11.70.70.64.23.74.52.01.11.11.81.21.42.2
    Italy2.02.02.00.92.73.13.22.31.81.11.21.71.80.62.2
    Japan33.61.12.44.00.9−1.50.32.31.1−0.51.50.91.51.11.0
    United Kingdom2.73.22.03.13.95.03.74.02.62.92.42.43.71.32.6
    Canada2.43.21.20.95.72.44.15.01.73.44.33.15.43.83.2
    Other advanced economies4.23.04.63.73.71.15.24.50.92.21.42.6
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.82.62.22.83.13.53.63.60.81.72.22.82.72.22.8
    European Union2.52.22.21.42.34.03.53.21.30.81.42.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.42.97.66.74.1−9.37.97.5−0.93.00.83.03.11.54.7

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Fourth-quarter data are calculated from seasonally adjusted data.

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Table 3.Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985-941995-20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Private consumer expenditure
    Advanced economies3.22.82.62.82.82.94.03.62.32.21.92.4
    United States3.13.53.03.23.64.84.94.32.53.12.93.2
    Euro area1.91.91.61.63.03.52.51.80.51.11.8
    Germany2.91.42.11.00.61.83.72.01.4−1.00.81.8
    France1.82.01.31.30.23.63.52.92.81.51.21.8
    Italy2.31.91.71.23.23.22.62.71.00.41.11.9
    Japan13.51.11.82.31.1−0.10.20.91.71.41.10.6
    United Kingdom3.23.51.93.83.83.84.55.24.13.72.22.1
    Canada2.63.32.12.64.62.83.84.02.63.43.63.6
    Other advanced economies4.03.13.83.93.71.65.14.52.32.50.92.3
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies3.02.72.32.52.63.33.73.42.32.22.12.4
    European Union2.62.31.92.02.23.33.73.22.11.11.31.9
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.13.78.96.35.2−4.77.97.23.14.0−0.72.7
    Public consumption
    Advanced economies2.42.21.11.71.41.72.62.72.93.42.62.0
    United States2.02.30.51.81.42.92.83.74.43.72.3
    Euro area1.70.71.71.21.42.02.12.22.81.61.0
    Germany1.71.11.51.80.31.90.81.01.01.70.80.4
    France2.51.92.22.1−0.11.53.02.94.11.61.6
    Italy1.81.0−2.11.10.30.31.41.73.51.72.0−0.2
    Japan13.02.64.22.91.02.14.44.72.52.30.51.4
    United Kingdom0.92.31.71.20.11.53.12.12.53.33.34.0
    Canada2.11.8−0.6−1.2−1.03.22.12.63.73.03.23.0
    Other advanced economies3.72.62.23.72.42.62.32.52.33.02.72.3
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.12.10.81.21.21.52.72.63.13.52.61.9
    European Union2.11.80.91.51.01.62.12.12.42.91.91.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.02.82.68.03.31.8−0.51.81.71.94.33.8
    Gross fixed capital formation
    Advanced economies3.43.24.05.75.65.65.15.0−1.4−1.71.42.8
    United States2.84.65.48.48.810.27.95.5−2.7−1.82.12.9
    Euro area2.12.41.32.55.25.94.9−0.6−2.8−0.53.1
    Germany3.3−0.1−0.6−0.80.63.04.12.7−4.2−6.7−1.83.5
    France2.32.72.2−0.1−0.27.28.38.42.1−1.4−1.02.4
    Italy1.03.46.03.62.14.05.07.12.60.50.63.0
    Japan14.30.30.56.90.7−4.1−0.72.7−1.2−4.71.6I 2
    United Kingdom2.83.33.14.76.912.80.61.91.0−1.01.32.2
    Canada3.14.6−2.14.415.22.47.35.54.31.33.64.6
    Other advanced economies5.13.57.25.36.23.04.25.9−1.90.71.73.3
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies3.03.13.25.85.56.25.34.8−1.3−2.41.32.7
    European Union2.82.73.52.33.56.95.24.90.4−2.1−0.23.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies10.32.010.37.34.4−9.010.3−7.10.72.22.7
    Final domestic demand
    Advanced economies3.12.72.63.23.13.13.93.81.61.61.92.4
    United States2.83.63.03.74.35.35.24.31.62.42.93.0
    Euro area1.91.71.61.73.23.73.01.40.20.81.9
    Germany2.71.01.30.70.52.13.21.90.1−1.70.31.8
    France2.12.11.21.30.63.44.04.02.71.50.91.8
    Italy2.02.01.71.72.42.82.93.41.80.71.21.7
    Japan13.61.11.83.71.0−0.90.62.01.1−0.11.10.9
    United Kingdom2.63.22.13.53.64.93.54.03.32.92.32.5
    Canada2.63.20.72.15.42.84.24.03.22.93.53.6
    Other advanced economies4.43.14.54.23.91.54.24.71.22.31.52.6
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.82.62.23.02.93.53.83.61.71.42.02.4
    European Union2.52.21.91.92.13.63.63.41.80.81.22.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.43.17.57.04.6−5.74.37.40.12.80.62.7
    Stock building1
    Advanced economies0.1−0.20.2−0.1−0.70.30.1
    United States−0.1−0.40.40.2−0.20.1−1.20.6−0.1
    Euro area0.3−0.50.10.4−0.2−0.4−0.10.30.1
    Germany0.3−0.50.3−0.4−0.1−0.80.10.60.2
    France0.5−0.60.10.8−0.20.5−0.7−0.40.2
    Italy0.2−0.70.30.30.3−1.10.40.1−0.1
    Japan10.60.3−0.6−0.30.3−0.40.4
    United Kingdom0.1−0.1−0.40.30.10.2−0.7−0 I
    Canada0.21.1−0.70.7−0.30.10.8−1.61.80.3−0.6
    Other advanced economies0.3−0.3−0.3−0.70.8−0.1−0.40.10.1
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies0.1−0.20.30.1−0.10.1−0.80.40.1
    European Union0.3−0.50.10.3−0.1−0.1−0.50.10.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies0.1−0.20.2−0.2−0.5−3.42.7−0.80.10.20.2
    Foreign balance2
    Advanced economies0.10.2−0.4−0.50.10.1−0.30.1
    United States0.1−0.40.1−0.2−0.3−1.2−1.0−0.8−0.2−0.6−0.3−0.1
    Euro area0.10.20.40.6−0.6−0.60.60.50.6−0.6−0.1
    Germany0.30.10.50.8−0.4−0.71.11.61.7−1.0−0.4
    France0.10.10.41.2−0.5−0.4−0.20.10.1−0.60.1
    Italy0.1−0.31.00.2−0.6−1.2−1.40.90.1−0.7−0.9
    Japan1−0.10.2−0.5−0.41.00.3−0.10.5−0.70.70.50.6
    United Kingdom−0.2−0.70.9−0.4−0.5−22−1.4−11−0.6−1.1−0.9−0.1
    Canada−0.10.11.00.3−1.71.71.40.60.6−0.3−2.2
    Other advanced economies−0.20.60.10.91.30.31.10.90.70.40.6
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies−0.20.2−0.10.1−0.7−0.7−0.2−0.1−0.4
    European Union−0.10.40.20.3−1.0−0.70.30.40.3−0.6−0.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies−0.11.90.3−0.21.96.51.52.01.82.41.81.6

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

    Table 4.Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real Per Capita GDP(Percent)
    Ten-Year Averages1
    1985-941995-20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Unemployment rate
    Advanced economies6.86.67.07.16.96.86.45.85.96.46.76.6
    United States26.45.15.65.44.94.54.24.04.85.86.05.7
    Euro area9.49.510.610.810.810.29.48.58.08.49.19.2
    Germany6.38.78.08.79.69.18.47.87.98.69.59.8
    France10.210.311.411.911.811.410.79.38.58.89.59.7
    Italy11.010.511.611.611.711.811.41069.59.09.09.0
    Spain19.815.922.922.220.818.715.713.910.511.41.2110
    Netherlands7.14.27.16.65.54.23.22.62.02.34.24.5
    Belgium8.58.49.79.59.29.38.66.96.77.38.18.3
    Austria3.34.13.94.44.44.53.93.63.64.14.44.4
    Finland7.811.115.414.612.611.410.29.89.19.19.39.3
    Greece8.010.39.19.89.811.111.911.110.49.99.39.7
    Portugal6.15.77.27.36.75.04.44.04.15.16.56.7
    Ireland15.57.012.111.59.87.45.64.33.94.45.15.6
    Luxembourg1.73.03.03.33.33.12.92.62.62.83.23.3
    Japan32.54.53.23.43.44.14.74.75.05.45.55.4
    United Kingdom9.16.28.78.17.16.36.05.55.15.25.25.2
    Canada9.68.19.49.69.18.37.66.87.27.67.97.7
    Korea2.93.82.12.12.67.06.44.23.83.13.43.3
    Australia8.47.18.28.28.27.77.06.36.76.36.16.0
    Taiwan Province of China1.83.61.82.62.72.72.93.04.65.25.35.0
    Sweden3.65.77.78.08.06.55.64.74.04.04.54.2
    Switzerland1.73.54.24.75.23.92.72.01.92.84.23.8
    Hong Kong SAR1.95.23.22.82.24.76.25.05.17.37.87.5
    Denmark9.76.410.08.57.76.45.55.14.94.95.75.6
    Norway4.34.15.04.94.13.23.23.43.63.94.64.7
    Israel8.48.86.86.67.78.58.98.89.410.310.810.6
    Singapore3.23.32.72.01.83.23.53.13.34.44.94.2
    New Zealand7.16.06.36.16.77.56.86.05.35.25.45.3
    Cyprus2.83.22.63.13.43.43.63.43.03.23.43.3
    Iceland2.02.95.04.43.92.81.91.31.42.53.02.5
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies6.66.46.76.76.66.36.15.75.96.56.86.7
    European Union9.59.110.610.710.59.89.18.27.47.78.28.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.53.82.12.32.65.45.33.94.14.14.44.2
    Growth in employment
    Advanced economies1.51.11.11.21.5101.42.00.70.20.71.1
    United States1.61.41.51.52.31.51.52.5−0.31.51.8
    Euro area1.00.50.50.81.81.72.01.30.50.5
    Germany3.50.20.1−0.3−0.21.11.21.80.4−0.6−1.1−0.4
    France0.21.10.90.40.41.52.02.61.80.70.4
    Italy−0.20.9−0.60.50.41.11.31.92.11.50.40.6
    Japan31.1−0.20.10.41.1−0.7−0.8−03−0.5−1.3−0.20.4
    United Kingdom0.30.91.10.91.70.91.31.10.80.70.60.5
    Canada1.52.01.90.82.32.72.82.61.12.21.91.9
    Other advanced economies1.51.82.12.31.71.02.33.01.61.31.01.3
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies1.50.90.80.81.41.01.11.70.4−0.10.61.0
    European Union1.21.10.81.01.01.91.92.11.40.50.10.5
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.81.42.32.11.8−2.91.53.51.02.01.41.6
    Growth in real per capita GDP
    Advanced economies2.42.12.12.32.82.12.83.40.51.41.42.5
    United States1.82.11.52.43.23.12.92.6−0.81.41.52.9
    Euro area1.82.01.22.12.62.63.10.90.60.31.7
    Germany−0.11.21.40.51.11.82.12.80.71.5
    France1.51.71.50.71.53.22.83.71.50.70.11.5
    Italy1.91.52.70.91.81.71.62.91.50.20.21.5
    Japan33.01.11.63.11.6−1.42.60.21.81.3
    United Kingdom2.32.22.72.43.22.72.12.81.81.41.21.9
    Canada1.22.31.70.53.13.24.74.30.92.31.11.8
    Other advanced economies3.22.93.63.23.71.74.54.81.22.31.32.6
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.21.91.72.12.62.22.43.00.31.11.42.4
    European Union2.12.02.11.42.42.82.73.41.61.00.71.9
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.73.56.35.24.6−3.56.97.4−0.13.91.53.5

    Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

    The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the new survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Table 5.Developing Countries: Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985-941995-20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Developing countries5.25.16.16.65.93.53.95.74.14.65.05.6
    Regional groups
    Africa1.93.63.05.63.03.22.73.03.73.13.74.8
    Sub-Sahara1.83.63.85.23.72.42.73.23.53.03.15.0
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa1.94.14.45.44.43.73.32.54.03.53.36.4
    Developing Asia7.76.69.08.36.64.06.26.85.86.46.46.5
    China10.28.210.59.68.87.87.18.07.58.07.57.5
    India5.45.87.67.55.05.86.75.44.24.75.65.9
    Other developing Asia5.83.87.66.73.8−5.13.65.33.34.44.54.8
    Middle East and Turkey3.04.24.05.36.13.70.96.02.04.85.14.6
    Western Hemisphere3.12.21.83.65.22.30.24.00.7−0.11.13.6
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel2.43.72.94.25.23.01.05.24.42.73.15.2
    Nonfuel5.55.26.46.96.03.54.25.84.14.85.15.7
    of which, primary products3.33.76.66.14.22.81.42.32.62.32.55.8
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries4.03.84.75.64.81.62.84.72.33.03.84.6
    of which, official financing4.63.76.26.24.2−2.62.54.43.83.64.05.0
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/o rescheduling during 1997-20013.73.45.05.14.2−0.72.04.53.43.13.24.4
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries2.24.95.86.05.23.94.34.34.84.54.26.4
    Middle East and north Africa2.64.32.55.34.84.32.94.94.73.95.24.5
    Memorandum
    Real per capita GDP
    Developing countries3.23.54.44.94.21.92.34.12.53.13.54.1
    Regional groups
    Africa−0.91.10.43.10.50.70.20.61.20.71.32.4
    Developing Asia5.95.27.56.85.12.64.85.44.55.15.15.3
    Middle East and Turkey0.22.21.83.13.91.5−1.23.9−0.12.83.22.7
    Western Hemisphere1.20.70.12.03.60.7−1.42.4−0.9−1.6−0.42.2
    Table 6.Developing Countries—by Country: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average

    1985-94
    1995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Africa1.93.05.63.03.22.73.03.73.13.74.8
    Algeria0.53.83.81.15.13.22.22.64.15.93.8
    Angola−1.510.411.27.96.83.33.03.215.34.411.4
    Benin2.54.65.95.84.64.75.85.06.05.66.5
    Botswana8.14.55.76.75.96.38.64.92.63.73.6
    Burkina Faso4.24.67.15.21.06.71.64.64.63.24.0
    Burundi2.6−7.9−8.04.7−0.9−1.12.24.5−0.55.4
    Cameroon2−1.73.35.05.15.04.44.25.36.54.04.4
    Cape Verde4.77.55.58.58.08.96.63.84.65.05.1
    Central African Republic1.14.9−8.17.53.93.61.81.00.8−0.75.8
    Chad4.60.43.14.27.72.31.08.59.710.942.7
    Comoros0.58.9−1.34.21.21.9−1.11.92.52.53.0
    Congo. Dem. Rep. of−3.70.7−1.0−5.6−1.6−4.3−6.2−2.13.05.06.0
    Congo, Rep. of4.64.04.3−0.63.7−3.08.23.63.52.07.0
    Côte d’Ivoire1.27.17.75.74.81.6−2.50.3−1.8−3.03.0
    Djibouti−0.9−3.5−4.1−0.70.12.20.71.92.63.03.1
    Equatorial Guinea2.914.331.880.714.630.615.245.313.315.610.2
    Eritrea2.99.37.91.8−13.210.21.85.08.0
    Ethiopia1.46.210.64.7−1.46.05.47.71.2−3.86.7
    Gabon2.05.03.65.73.5−8.9−1.92.01.01.7
    Gambia, The3.7−3.46.14.93.56.45.55.8−3.17.45.5
    Ghana4.94.04.64.24.74.43.74.24.54.75.0
    Guinea4.14.75.15.04.84.61.93.84.23.65.0
    Guinea-Bissau3.04.44.65.5−28.18.09.50.2−7.22.42.9
    Kenya3.54.44.22.11.61.3−0.11.21.01.32.6
    Lesotho5.15.99.54.8−3.50.51.93.64.24.24.4
    Liberia
    Madagascar1.21.72.13.73.94.74.85.0−12.76.06.0
    Malawi1.516.77.33.83.34.01.1−4.21.86.55.2
    Mali2.57.04.36.74.96.73.73.59.7−1.15.7
    Mauritania2.94.65.72.83.95.25.24.03.35.46.1
    Mauritius7.23.55.26.06.05.32.67.24.03.35.5
    Morocco4.0−6.612.22.27.7−0.11.06.33.25.53.4
    Mozambique, Rep. of4.04.37.111.112.67.51.513.08.37.08.0
    Namibia3.74.13.24.23.33.33.32.42.73.74.7
    Niger2.12.63.42.810.4−0.6−1.47.13.04.04.1
    Nigeria3.92.46.53.10.31.55.82.80.55.22.8
    Rwanda−7.035.212.713.88.97.66.06.79.43.26.0
    Sào Tome and Principe0.82.01.51.02.52.53.04.04.15.05.0
    Senegal2.15.25.15.05.75.05.65.62.46.65.6
    Seychelles5.30.510.012.25.7−1.34.8−2.20.3−5.1−2.0
    Sierra Leone−1.1−10.0−24.8−17.6−0.8−8.13.85.46.36.56.3
    Somalia
    South Africa8.81.14.32.50.82.03.52.83.02.23.0
    Sudan3.33.06.39.35.76.96.95.35.05.86.5
    Swaziland6.53.83.93.83.33.52.01.81.61.51.6
    Tanzania3.83.64.53.53.73.75.66.16.35.56.3
    Togo1.16.99.74.3−2.12.9−0.80.62.93.53.9
    Tunisia3.72.47.15.44.86.14.74.91.75.55.8
    Uganda4.811.98.65.14.77.95.35.56.65.46.0
    Zambia−0.4−2.56.53.4−1.92.23.64.93.04.54.5
    Zimbabwe3.50.29.71.40.8−4.1−6.8−8.8−12.8−11.05.1
    Developing Asia7.79.08.36.64.06.26.85.86.46.46.5
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh4.64.85.05.35*05.45.84.84.85.4
    Bhutan6.47.45.27.26.47.65.36.67.77.37.6
    Brunei Darussalam2.11.03.6−4.02.62.80.83.05.10.1
    Cambodia5.94.64.32.26.97.76.35.54.75.8
    China10.210.59.68.87.87.18.07.58.07.57.5
    Fiji2.62.53.1−0.91.59.5−3.24.34.45.23.2
    India5.47.67.55.05.86.75.44.24.75.65.9
    Indonesia6.88.28.04.5−13.10.84.93.43.73.54.0
    Kiribati0.75.23.81.912.69.51.61.81.02.51.8
    Lao P.D. Republic5.27.06.96.94.07.35.85.85.95.56.0
    Malaysia7.19.810.07.3−7.46.18.60.34.14.25.3
    Maldives8.07.29.110.49.87.24.83.56.06.24.0
    Myanmar1.37.26.45.75.810.913.710.55.55.14.3
    Nepal5.73.35.35.32.94.56.14.8−0.52.34.0
    Pakistan5.34.92.91.83.14.03.42.74.45.45.1
    Papua New Guinea5.6−3.37.7−3.9−3.87.6−1.3−3.4−3.32.52.3
    Philippines2.24.75.85.2−0.63.44.44.54.44.04.0
    Samoa2.26.67.30.82.42.66.96.21.83.13.2
    Solomon Islands4.48.21.6−1.41.3−0.5−14.2−9.0−2.01.93.1
    Sri Lanka4.35.53.86.44.74.36.0−1.54.05.56.5
    Thailand9.09.25.9−1.4−10.54.44.61.95.35.05.1
    Tonga2.43.2−0.40.22.42.96.50.51.62.5−0.5
    Vanuatu2.47.42.52.43.0−2.12.5−2.1−2.81.02.2
    Vietnam6.19.59.38.23.54.25.55.05.86.07.0
    Middle East and Turkey3.04.05.36.13.70.96.02.04.85.14.6
    Bahrain3.63.94.13.14.84.35.34.84.14.14.3
    Egypt3.04.54.95.94.56.35.13.52.02.83.0
    Iran, Islamic Republic of1.83.47.64.03.42.05.35.96.76.15.7
    Iraq
    Jordan3.56.22.43.33.0sit4.24.24.93.05.5
    Kuwait2.0−2.05.12.32.4−2.51.4−1.1−0.94.72.2
    Lebanon−2.16.54.04.03.01.0−0.52.02.02.03.0
    Libya−1.0−0.33.35.2−3.60.72.30.5−0.25.62.8
    Malta5.46.94.04.93.44.16.4−1.21.22.83.8
    Oman5.34.82.96.22.7−0.25.59.32.32.24.8
    Qatar−0.52.94.825.46.25.311.67.23.04.08.2
    Saudi Arabia2.90.51.42.62.8−0.74.91.31.04.72.1
    Syrian Arab Republic4.57.34.74.16.3−0.90.67.22.71.02.9
    Turkey4.26.96.97.63.1−4.77.4−7.57.85.35.0
    United Arab Emirates2.57.06.18.31.44.410.03.81.56.33.9
    Yemen, Republic of12.57.46.45.33.54.44.63.93.83.3
    Western Hemisphere3.11.83.65.22.30.24.00.7−0.11.13.6
    Antigua and Barbuda6.2−5.06.15.65.04.93.31.52.12.51.0
    Argentina2.3−2.85.58.13.8−3.4−0.8−4.4−10.95.54.0
    Bahamas. The1.40.34.23.33.05.94.9−2.00.70.92.5
    Barbados0.72.32.52.94.42.53.0−2.7−1.81.62.3
    Belize6.84.00.73.83.14.111.25.33.54.54.4
    Bolivia2.94.74.45.05.00.42.31.52.82.94.3
    Brazil2.94.22.73.30.10.84.41.41.51.53.0
    Chile7.010.87.46.63.2−0.84.23.12.13.34.5
    Colombia4.35.22.13.40.6−4.22.91.41.52.03.3
    Costa Rica4.63.90.95.68.48.21.81.12.83.02.5
    Dominica3.81.63.12.02.81.60.7−4.6−3.6−1.00.5
    Dominican Republic2.84.77.28.37.38.07.33.24.1−3.00.5
    Ecuador3.01.72.44.12.1−6.32.85.13.43.15.0
    El Salvador2.36.41.74.23.73.42.21.82.32.53.0
    Grenada3.93.13.14.07.37.56.5−3.3−0.52.54.5
    Guatemala3.04.93.04.45.03.83.62.32.22.43.5
    Guyana2.35.07.96.2−1.73.0−1.32.31.1−0.22.0
    Haiti−2.39.94.12.72.22.70.9−1.1−0.91.0
    Honduras3.34.13.65.02.9−1.95.23.32.02.02.5
    Jamaica2.40.5−1.2−1.4−0.4−0.20.91.11.52.21.6
    Mexico2.5−6.25.26.85.03.66.6−0.20.71.53.5
    Netherlands Antilles1.90.31.3−0.50.7−0.7−2.00.60.20.51.0
    Nicaragua−1.84.34.85.14.17.04.23.01.02.33.7
    Panama2.71.82.84.68.74.23.30.30.81.53.0
    Paraguay3.54.71.32.6−0.40.5−0.42.7−3.90.61.0
    Peru1.48.62.56.7−0.50.93.10.65.34.04.0
    St. Kitts and Nevis5.43.70.812.91.13.56.22.30.81.21.4
    St. Lucia6.44.11.40.62.63.10.2−5.2−0.51.52.0
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines4.96.81.43.95.23.01.30.91.12.22.8
    Suriname−2.77.212.37.04.1−2.0−1.04.92.73.84.3
    Trinidad and Tobago−1.24.03.82.87.84.46.13.32.73.84.0
    Uruguay4.2−1.45.64.94.7−2.8−1.4−3.4−10.8−1.04.5
    Venezuela2.64.0−0.26.40.2−6.13.22.8−8.9−16.77.7

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July-June to January-December).

    Table 7.Countries in Transition: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average

    1985-94
    1995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Central and easlern Europe5.54.02.52.52.33.93.13.03.44.1
    Albania−2.18.99.1−10.512.78.97.76.84.76.06.0
    Bosnia and Herzegovina16.460.830.415.69.65.44.53.83.35.0
    Bulgaria−32−1.8−8.0−5.64.02.35.44.14.85.05.5
    Croatia6.86.06.82.5−0.92.93.85.24.64.5
    Czech Republic5.94.3−0.8−1.00.53.33.12.01.72.6
    Estonia4.33.99.84.6−0.67.15.05.85.05.1
    Hungary−1.11.51.34.64.94.25.23.83.33.03.5
    Latvia−0.83.78.44.82.86.87.96.15.56.0
    Lithuania3.34.77.07.3−1.84.06.56.75.86.2
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of−1.11.22.03.44.44.5−4.50.73.04.0
    Poland1.36.86.06.84.84.14.01.01.42.94.1
    Romania−2.58.03.9−6.1−4.8−1.22.15.74.94.75.0
    Serbia and Montenegro2.5−18.05.05.54.04.05.0
    Slovak Republic6.55.85.64.01.32.23.34.44.04.0
    Slovenia4.93.54.63.85.24.62.93.22.23.0
    Commonwealth of Independent Stales and Mongolia−5.5−3.51.4−3.25.29.16.44.95.85.0
    Russia−4.1−3.61.4−5.36.310.05.04.36.05.0
    Excluding Russia−8.6−3.11.51.42.76.99.25.95.45.0
    Armenia6.95.93.37.33.38.09.612.97.06.0
    Azerbaijan−11.81.35.810.07.411.19.910.69.29.1
    Belarus−10.42.811.48.43.45.84.74.74.03.2
    Georgia2.610.510.62.93.01.94.75.34.84.5
    Kazakhstan−8.30.51.6−1.92.79.813.59.59.08.0
    Kyrgyz Republic−5.87.19.92.13.75.35.4−0.55.64.0
    Moldova−1.4−5.91.7−65−3.42.16.17.26.05.0
    Mongolia0.46.32.44.03.53.21.11.03.95.05.3
    Tajikistan−12.5−4.41.75.33.78.310.29.16.04.0
    Turkmenistan−7.2−6.7−11.37.016.518.020.5
    Ukraine−12.2−10.0−3.0−1.9−0.25.99.24.85.34.8
    Uzbekistan−0.91.62.52.13.43.34.13.20.32.5
    Memorandum
    EU accession candidates5.94.84.12.60.25.04.33.94.3

    Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

    Table 8.Summary of Inflation(Percent)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985-941995-20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies3.71.52.31.91.71.30.81.41.81.2131.0
    United States3.01.72.21.91.91.21.42.12.41.11.51.2
    Euro area1.92.92.21.61.71.11.42.32.42.11.7
    Japan11.4−1.2−0.5−0.80.3−0.1−1.5−1.9−1.6−1.7−2.5−2.0
    Other advanced economies5.42.03.12.92.41.90.81.91.81.42.01.7
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies3.81.92.62.42.11.51.42.22.21.51.81.3
    United States3.62.32.82.92.31.52.23.42.81.62.11.3
    Euro area21.92.72.21.61.11.12.12.42.32.01.6
    Japan11.6−0.1−0.11.70.6−0.3−0.9−0.7−0.9−0.3−0.6
    Other advanced economies5.92.33.83.22.42.61.02.22.41.82.01.6
    Developing countries49.99.223.315.39.910.46.55.85.85.35.94.9
    Regional groups
    Africa28.115.535.530.314.510.712.214.312.99.310.67.7
    Developing Asia11.04.813.28.24.87.72.51.82.72.02.52.9
    Middle East and Turkey26.322.239.129.628.127.523.619.517.115.713.510.8
    Western Hemisphere190.712.336.120.912.49.27.46.86.48.710.97.0
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel19.819.543.135.419.817.316.813.411.712.314.814.4
    Nonfuel54.78.121.313.38.89.75.55.05.24.65.14.0
    of which, primary products49.218.334.731.116.813.817.122.518.68.213.010.3
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries70.211.925.117.312.515.810.18.58.68.58.26.0
    of which, official financing22.413.422.015.610.226.513.28.012.810.29.37.9
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1997-2001163.515.440.220.611.718.512.310.512.210.812.48.4
    Countries in transition97.130.1133.842.527.421.544.420.716.211.19.79.1
    Central and eastern Europe15.024.723.342.017.211.012.99.75.64.04.8
    Commonwealth of Independent
    States and Mongolia40.1235.755.919.124.571.225.820.314.513.111.7
    Russia38.6198.047.914.727.885.720.820.616.014.412.9
    Excluding Russia43.7338.975.529.717.943.537.419.811.510.49.4
    Memorandum
    Median inflation rate
    Advanced economies3.92.12.42.21.91.71.52.72.72.22.11.7
    Developing countries9.55.210.07.36.35.33.83.94.33.34.43.8
    Countries in transition146.412.941.424.114.89.98.010.07.14.54.64.7

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

    Table 9.Advanced Economies: GDP Deflators and Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1985-941995-20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004200220032004
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies3.71.52.31.91.71.30.81.41.81.21.31.0
    United States3.01.72.21.91.91.21.42.12.41.11.51.21.38.31.4
    Euro area1.92.92.21.61.71.11.42.32.42.11.72.12.01.6
    Germany2.81.02.01.00.71.10.5−0.31.31.60.90.90.91.01.0
    France3.21.31.71.41.30.80.40.71.71.91.61.61.81.61.7
    Italy6.42.95.05.32.42.71.62.12.72.72.92.12.33.11.9
    Spain6.73.54.93.52.32.42.73.54.24.43.92.84.63.32.7
    Netherlands1.52.62.01.22.01.71.63.95.43.43.31.93.12.62.0
    Belgium3.11.51.31.21.21.61.41.31.91.91.81.61.51.71.5
    Austria2.91.32.51.30.90.50.71.41.61.31.31.21.41.21.4
    Finland4.11.74.1−0.22.13.0−0.23.22.21.31.00.6
    Greece15.95.111.27.46.85.23.03.43.43.74.02.83.94.52.8
    Portugal12.23.97.63.03.83.83.13.24.84.63.32.44.32.72.4
    Ireland3.33.93.02.14.06.33.84.35.15.42.12.9
    Luxembourg2.52.54.31.63.32.13.12.82.30.92.22.2
    Japan21.4−1.2−0.5−0.80.3−0.1−1.5−1.9−1.6−1.7−2.52.0−2.6−1.8−2.1
    United Kingdom5.02.72.63.32.92.92.52.22.33.12.82.73.12.82.7
    Canada3.01.82.31.61.2−0.41.74.01.01.03.51.84.12.52.0
    Korea7.22.37.13.93.15.1−2.0−1.12.51.71.11.83.10.52.2
    Australia4.62.11.92.01.50.50.74.13.42.32.52.02.81.72.8
    Taiwan Province of China2.50.72.03.11.72.6−1.4−1.70.6−1.10.70.7−1.90.80.7
    Sweden5.41.73.41.21.50.80.71.32.01.32.32.01.02.52.0
    Switzerland3.10.51.10.4−0.20.71.21.40.4−0.10.60.4−0.10.6
    Hong Kong SAR8.1−0.92.55.95.70.2−5.9−6.2−1.9−3.0−2.9−2.1−4.1−0.4−5.1
    Denmark3.51.91.82.52.21.01.83.12.00.91.72.10.92.21.9
    Norway2.83.22.94.12.9−0.76.615.91.9−1.32.2−0.9
    Israel33.95.29.810.99.06.96.41.32.14.61.20.27.3−0.51.3
    Singapore2.30.12.21.10.4−2.4−5.54.5−1.20.20.41.21.10.71.2
    New Zealand6.01.62.11.91.51.30.62.34.00.41.9−1.91.01.9
    Cyprus4.72.93.61.92.62.32.24.22.42.93.83.5
    Iceland14.73.72.82.03.34.92.82.99.35.01.92.1
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies3.11.31.91.61.51.10.91.21.51.01.10.91.01.11.0
    European Union4.62.23.12.51.92.01.41.62.42.52.21.9
    Newly industrialized Asian economies5.61.34.73.72.83.1−2.5−1.51.10.20.51.00.60.50.9
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies3.81.92.62.42.11.51.42.22.21.51.81.3
    United States3.62.32.82.92.31.52.23.42.81.62.11.32.21.71.6
    Euro area31.92.72.21.61.11.12.12.42.32.01.62.31.61.6
    Germany32.51.21.71.21.50.60.61.41.91.31.00.61.21.00.7
    France33.11.61.82.11.30.70.61.81.81.91.91.72.01.72.3
    Italy35.82.75.24.11.92.01.72.62.72.62.82.02.92.71.9
    Japan21.6−0.1−0.11.70.6−0.3−0.9−0.7−0.9−0.3−0.6−0.4−0.3−0.5
    United Kingdom44.82.52.83.02.82.72.32.12.12.22.82.52.62.92.4
    Canada3.52.02.21.61.61.01.72.72.52.32.81.73.81.82.0
    Other advanced economies6.12.53.83.22.42.41.32.42.92.42.21.9
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies3.31.82.32.22.01.31.42.22.01.31.81.11.81.51.3
    European Union34.32.12.92.51.91.51.42.22.42.32.21.8
    Newly industrialized Asian economies4.82.44.64.33.44.41.11.91.01.51.71.21.41.9

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

    Retail price index excluding mortgage interest.

    Table 10.Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985-941995-20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Hourly earnings
    Advanced economies5.53.33.23.03.03.03.14.72.83.54.03.1
    United States4.03.82.11.41.95.44.07.42.55.05.43.1
    Euro area3.34.24.23.11.72.63.43.83.73.23.5
    Germany5J53.34.34.24.03.83.73.63.43.03.0
    France4.32.52.32.32.10.51.14.72.53.22.63.7
    Italy7.52.94.75.84.2−1.42.33.13.02.72.13.1
    Japan3.90.82.31.83.10.8−0.8−0.20.9−1.21.30.1
    United Kingdom7.64.64.44.34.24.54.04.64.33.46.15.8
    Canada4.12.12.21.02.20.81.61.33.52.73.12.5
    Other advanced economies8.94.45.25.94.43.14.54.34.04.23.94.2
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies4.73.12.82.32.73.02.74.82.53.34.02.8
    European Union6.43.44.24.13.81.63.03.83.63.43.43.6
    Newly industrialized Asian economies13.76.27.910.25.61.77.86.53.55.86.06.8
    Productivity
    Advanced economies2.93.13.72.74.02.34.04.70.63.63.22.6
    United States2.84.13.93.54.24.95.14.01.76.34.53.1
    Euro area3.34.92.95.53.72.85.11.21.82.12.6
    Germany3J32.73.33.23.13.05.92.83.02.8
    France3.53.96.01.05.65.52.97.72.22.52.03.3
    Italy3.21.23.7−0.22.6−0.41.63.41.0−1.40.91.2
    Japan2.12.44.43.84.7−4.02.96.4−3.53.34.31.6
    United Kingdom4.32.1−0.8−0.61.31.03.55.62.21.14.14.0
    Canada2.11.11.4−2.43.4−0.42.62.1−2.02.02.02.0
    Other advanced economies3.02.93.93.44.51.95.54.10.81.91.32.2
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.93.23.62.53.92.43.64.80.54.13.72.8
    European Union3.52.53.21.33.62.62.14.81.11.42.12.5
    Newly industrialized Asian economies4.45.37.86.95.9−0.414.09.60.33.52.04.3
    Unit labor costs
    Advanced economies2.60.2−0.30.4−0.90.8−0.82.2−0.10.70.4
    United States1.2−0.3−1.7−2.1−2.20.4−1.13.20.7−1.30.90.1
    Euro area0.1−0.61.3−2.3−1.9−0.3−1.62.61.91.10.9
    Germany2.20.61.00.90.8−2.93.8−2.13.60.70.2
    France0.8−1.4−3.51.2−3.2−4.8−1.8−2.80.30.70.6−0.1
    Italy4.21.71.06.11.6−1.00.7−0.32.04.11.21.9
    Japan1.7−1.5−2.1−1.9−1.65.0−3.5−6.24.5−4.4−2.9−1.5
    United Kingdom3.12.45.25.02.93.40.5−0.92.12.31.91.7
    Canada2.01.00.93.4−1.21.1−0.9−0.75.50.71.10.5
    Other advanced economies6.01.51.52.70.11.5−0.90.13.22.22.41.8
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies1.8−0.1−0.8−0.2−1.20.6−0.82.0−0.70.30.1
    European Union2.91.01.02.80.3−0.90.9−0.92.52.01.21.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.80.90.73.70.33.0−5.2−3.23.01.63.31.9
    Table 11.Developing Countries: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985-941995-20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Developing countries49.99.223.315.39.910.46.55.85.85.35.94.9
    Regional groups
    Africa28.115.535.530.314.510.712.214.312.99.310.67.7
    Sub-Sahara33.718.841.236.817.812.815.418.416.211.513.29.2
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa48.026.558.359.725.516.823.328.922.012.516.411.3
    Developing Asia11.04.813.28.24.87.72.51.82.72.02.52.9
    China11.02.717.18.32.8−0.8−1.40.40.7−0.80.81.5
    India9.06.510.29.07.213.24.74.03.84.34.04.8
    Other developing Asia12.27.99.37.56.822.09.03.06.26.55.14.7
    Middle East and Turkey26.322.239.129.628.127.523.619.517.115.713.510.8
    Western Hemisphere190.712.336.120.912.49.27.46.86.48.710.97.0
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel19.819.543.135.419.817.316.813.411.712.314.814.4
    Nonfuel54.78.121.313.38.89.75.55.05.24.65.14.0
    of which, primary products49.218.334.731.116.813.817.122.518.68.213.010.3
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries70.211.925.117.312.515.810.18.58.68.58.26.0
    of which, official financing22.413.422.015.610.226.513.28.012.810.29.37.9
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1997-2001163.515.440.220.611.718.512.310.512.210.812.48.4
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries61.121.449.847.222.017.618.319.317.010.911.68.0
    Middle East and north Africa17.411.224.216.811.710.610.68.16.97.28.58.5
    Memorandum
    Median
    Developing countries9.55.210.07.36.35.33.83.94.33.34.43.8
    Regional groups
    Africa10.96.012.47.57.95.83.95.44.93.35.34.0
    Developing Asia8.45.48.77.36.58.54.43.03.83.94.14.1
    Middle East and Turkey6.93.26.46.83.43.02.21.51.71.62.62.7
    Western Hemisphere13.45.310.17.16.94.63.54.63.74.24.63.4
    Table 12.Developing Countries—by Country: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average

    1985-94
    1995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Africa28.135.530.314.510.712.214.312.99.310.67.7
    Algeria15.829.818.75.75.02.60.34.21.42.33.5
    Angola104.52,672.24,146.0221.5107.4248.2325.0152.6108.995.230.1
    Benin4.614.54.93.85.80.34.24.02.42.52.4
    Botswana12.810.510.39.47.66.97.97.25.54.74.5
    Burkina F3so1.87.86.12.45.0−1.1−0.34.92.33.02.8
    Burundi7.419.426.431.112.53.424.39.3−1.311.07.2
    Cameroon22.625.86.65.12.90.82.86.32.52.1
    Cape Verde7.08.46.08.64.43.9−2.43.81.82.82.0
    Central African Republic1.719.23.71.6−1.9−1.43.23.82.33.21.7
    Chad2.15.411.35.64.3−8.43.812.45.24.34.0
    Comoros2.17.12.03.03.53.54.5−3.53.32.52.0
    Congo, Dem. Rep. of534.5541.8617.0199.0107.0270.0553.7357.927.79.16.0
    Congo, Rep. of2.28.610.213.21.83.10.40.83.32.02.0
    Côte d’Ivoire5.414.12.74.24.50.72.54.43.13.52.9
    Djibouti6.24.93.52.52.2−20.82.41.80.62.02.0
    Equatorial Guinea6.511.46.04.53.76.06.56.012.010.08.0
    Eritrea12.010.33.79.58.419.914.616.918.812.4
    Ethiopia8.113.40.9−6.43.63.94.2−7.1−7.214.65.5
    Gabon3.810.04.54.12.3−0.70.42.10.22.02.0
    Gambia, The16.14.04.83.11.13.80.94.58.613.08.0
    Ghana24.359.546.627.914.612.425.232.914.826.48.6
    Guinea23.35.63.01.95.14.66.85.43.06.23.0
    Guinea-Bissau59.145.450.749.18.0−2.18.63.33.33.03.0
    Kenya17.51.68.911.96.75.810.04.92.012.43.9
    Lesotho13.610.09.18.57.88.66.16.912.39.310.1
    Liberia
    Madagascar15.649.019.84.56.29.911.95.04J3.53.5
    Malawi19.483.137.79.129.844.829.627.214.15.04.3
    Mali2.012.46.5−0.74.1−1.2−0.75.22.43.82.5
    Mauritania7.56.54.74.58.04.13.34.73.96.43.7
    Mauritius7.46.05.97.95.47.95.34.46.45.05.0
    Morocco5.66.13.01.02.70.71.90.62.82.02.0
    Mozambique, Rep. of53.054.444.66.40.62.912.79.016.812.99.7
    Namibia12.710.08.08.86.28.79.39.311.39.58.5
    Niger1.210.95.32.94.5−2.33.94.02.70.51.7
    Nigeria28.072.929.38.510.06.66.918.013.712.310.6
    Rwanda9.748.213.411.76.8−2.43.93.42.04.73.0
    Sào Tome and Principe31.636.842.069.042.116.311.09.59.29.08.0
    Senegal3.98.12.81.8−1.10.80.73.02.22.01.8
    Seychelles1.9−0.3−1.10.62.76.36.26.00.27.05.0
    Sierra Leone70.426.023.114.636.034.1−0.92.2−3.17.43.5
    Somalia
    South Africa14.08.77.38.66.95.25.45.75.17.74.9
    Sudan75.568.4132.846.717.116.08.04.98.37.05.0
    Swaziland13.112.36.47.97.55.99.97.511.89.56.7
    Tanzania30.326.521.016.19.89.06.25.24.65.35.0
    Togo3.515.74.78.22.2−0.11.93.93.13.1
    Tunisia6.66.23.73.73.12.73.01.92.82.52.5
    Uganda78.56.17.57.85.8−0.26.34.5−2.05.95.9
    Zambia87.334.943.124.424.526.826.121.722.218.45.2
    Zimbabwe18.422.621.518.831.758.555.976.7140.0420.0380.0
    Developing Asia11.013.28.24.87.72.51.82.72.02.52.9
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh8.110.82.55.08.66.22.21.53.84.54.1
    Bhutan9.39.57.49.09.23.63.62.75.05.05.0
    Brunei Darussalam6.02.01.7−0.41.20.6−2.01.01.3
    Cambodia1.37.18.014.84.0−0.80.23.32.63.5
    China11.017.18.32.8−0.8−1.40.40.7−0.80.81.5
    Fiji5.50.34.93.45.92.01.14.31.92.02.5
    India9.010.29.07.213.24.74.03.84.34.04.8
    Indonesia7.79.47.96.258.020.73.811.511.96.65.4
    Kiribati2.74.1−1.52.23.71.80.46.03.21.42.3
    Lao P.D. Republic19.419.119.119.585.3127.125.18.610.611.37.0
    Malaysia2.63.53.52.75.32.81.61.41.81.72.2
    Maldives8.13.06.27.6−1.43.0−1.20.70.9−1.52.0
    Myanmar21.428.920.033.949.110.9−1.734.546.940.043.0
    Nepal11.37.77.28.18.311.43.42.42.94.75.4
    Pakistan8.312.310.411.46.24.14.43.12.93.64.0
    Papua New Guinea4.817.311.63.913.614.915.69.311.817.28.0
    Philippines10.38.09.05.89.76.74.36.13.13.03.4
    Samoa1.8−2.95.46.92.20.31.03.88.14.22.4
    Solomon Islands12.29.811.78.112.38.07.36.89.812.111.0
    Sri Lanka10.77.715.99.69.44.76.214.29.67.57.0
    Thailand4.06.35.65.97.81.71.50.61.40.1
    Tonga8.82.72.03.03.95.36.910.415.020.020.0
    Vanuatu5.92.20.92.83.32.22.53.72.24.03.2
    Vietnam112.016.95.73.27.74.2−1.6−0.44.04.03.5
    Middle East and Turkey26.339.129.628.127.523.619.517.115.713.510.8
    Bahrain−0.23.1−0.14.6−0.4−1.3−0.7−1.2−1.03.35.0
    Egypt17.29.47.16.24.73.62.82.42.53.24.2
    Iran, Islamic Republic of21.149.423.217.318.120.112.611.415.818.017.0
    Iraq
    Jordan4.82.36\53.03.10.60.71.11.82.51.8
    Kuwait7.82.73.60.70.13.01.81.71.42.02.0
    Lebanon91.210.38.97.74.50.2−0.4−0.41.82.02.5
    Libya7.28.34.03.63.72.6−2.9−8.8−9.82.82.9
    Malta1.94.02.03.12.42.12.42.92.22.02.0
    Oman2.5−1.10.5−0.5−0.50.5−1.2−1.0−0.71.01.1
    Oatar2.63.08.81.12.92.21.71.41.04.21.2
    Saudi Arabia−0.15.00.9−0.4−0.2−1.3−0.6−0.8−0.61.11.0
    Syrian Arab Republic21.87.78.91.9−0.4−2.1−0.60.51.52.53.0
    Turkey61.393.682.385.784.664.954.954.445.026.013.4
    United Arab Emirates4.34.43.02.92.02.11.42.21.42.41.9
    Yemen, Republic of35.762.540.04.611.58.010.911.912.29.16.6
    Western Hemisphere190.736.120.912.49.27.46.86.48.710.97.0
    Antigua and Barbuda4.02.73.00.23.41.10.71.02.22.52.5
    Argentina267.73.40.20.50.9−1.2−0.9−1.125.914.37.7
    Bahamas. The4.72.11.40.51.31.31.62.02.01.72.5
    Barbados3.61.92.47.7−1.31.62.61.51.52.4
    Belize−2.72.62.96.41.0−0.8−1.30.71.21.51.5
    Bolivia104.410.212.44.77.72.24.61.60.92.63.1
    Brazil773.066.016.06.93.24.97.16.88.415.06.2
    Chile18.88.27.46.15.13.33.83.62.53.43.0
    Colombia25.320.820.818.318.610.29.37.86.36.95.3
    Costa Rica17.323.226.313.211.710.011.011.39.110.510.0
    Dominica3.51.31.72.41.01.20.91.8−0.30.5l 5
    Dominican Republic25.212.55.48.34.86.57.78.95.226.120.1
    Ecuador0.25.34.1−0.6−29.2−7.737.712.68.24.4
    El Salvador19.410.19.84.52.50.52.33.71.92.92.7
    Grenada2.62.22.81.31.40.52.23.23.02.52.5
    Guatemala17.26.411.09.26.64.95.18.96.35.04.0
    Guyana36.612.27.13.64.67.56.12.75.35.84.6
    Haiti13.730.221.916.212.76.111.516.88.732.320.0
    Honduras12.129.523.820.213.711.611.09.77.78.47.9
    Jamaica28.621.721.59.18.16.37.78.06.57.07.0
    Mexico43.435.034.420.615.916.69.56.45.04.63.4
    Netherlands Antilles2.42.83.43.11.20.85.01.80.52.02.5
    Nicaragua879.011.211.69.213.011.211.57.44.05.25.2
    Panama0.80.91.31.30.61.51.20.31.01.71.4
    Paraguay24.313.49.87.011.66.69.07.310.517.412.1
    Peru319.023.811.58.57.33.53.82.00.22.52.5
    St. Kitts and Nevis2.33.02.08.73.73.42.12.12.11.41.5
    St. Lucia3.25.91.20.32.83.53.61.90.92.02.0
    St Vincent and the Grenadines3.11.74.40.52.11.00.20.81.00.32.0
    Suhname49.3235.5−0.87.319.0112.880.44.928.320.018.0
    Trinidad and Tobago8.35.33.33.6−0.53.43.55.54.23.52.8
    Uruguay72.642.228.319.810.85.74.84.414.021.618.9
    Venezuela35.659.999.950.035.823.616.212.522.434.040.8

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July-June to January-December).

    Table 13.Countries in Transition: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average

    1985-94
    1995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Central and eastern Europe24.723.342.017.211.012.99.75.64.04.8
    Albania25.97.812.733.220.90.43.15.43.03.0
    Bosnia and Herzegovina4.7−11.85.8−0.22.84.93.20.31.11.6
    Bulgaria44.362.1123.01,061.218.82.610.47.55.82.64.2
    Croatia2.03.53.65.74.16.26.22.22.03.5
    Czech Republic9.18.88.510.62.13.94.81.80.63.5
    Estonia29.023.111.28.23.34.05.83.61.72.0
    Hungary17.828.323.518.314.310.09.89.25.34.75.5
    Latvia25.217.68.44.62.42.62.51.93.03.0
    Lithuania39.524.78.85.10.81.01.30.32.5
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of15.82.32.5−0.1−0.75.85.32.42.53.0
    Poland76.027.919.914.911.87.310.15.51.90.82.2
    Romania66.532.338.8154.859.145.845.734.522.515.112.0
    Serbia and Montenegro29.542.169.991.121.212.27.6
    Slovak Republic9.95.86.16.710.712.07.33.38.58.1
    Slovenia13.59.98.47.96.28.96.47.55.95.0
    Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia235.755.919.124.571.225.820.314.513.111.7
    Russia198.047.914.727.885.720.820.616.014.412.9
    Excluding Russia338.975.529.717.943.537.419.811.510.49.4
    Armenia176.718.714.08.60.6−0.83.11.12.23.0
    Azerbaijan411.819.83.7−0.8−8.51.81.52.82.72.5
    Belarus709.352.763.873.0293.7168.661.142.629.024.1
    Georgia162.739.37.03.619.14.04.75.64.45.0
    Kazakhstan176.339.117.47.38.413.36.35.96.45.9
    Kyrgyz Republic43.432.023.410.535.916.76.92.03.33.6
    Moldova30.223.511.87.739.331.39.85.33.14.5
    Mongolia37.956.846.836.69.47.611.66.30.95.05.0
    Tajikistan610.0418.288.043.227.532.938.612.214.55.0
    Turkmenistan1,005.2992.483.716.823.58.011.6
    Ukraine376.480.215.910.622.728.212.00.65.55.3
    Uzbekistan304.654.070.916.744.650.748.938.721.920.7
    Memorandum
    ELI accession candidates42.739.455.635.625.324.721.115.810.17.3

    For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

    Table 14.Summary Financial Indicators(Percent)
    1995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Advanced economies
    Central government tiscat balance1
    Advanced economies−3.4−2.8−1.6−1.0−1.10.2−0.9−2.3−3.3−3.1
    United States−2.6−1.8−0.60.51.22.10.7−2.2−4.3−4.2
    Euro area1−3.8−2.6−2.4−1.6−0.4−1.5−2.0−2.4−2.3
    Japan−4.6−4.6−4.2−4.0−8.7−7.2−6.7−6.3−6.1−5.4
    Other advanced economies−2.4−1.5−0.20.42.40.6−0.3−1.1−0.7
    General government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies−4.1−3.3−1.8−1.3−1.0−0.1−1.5−3.31.7−4.0
    United States−3.3−2.4−1.3−0.10.51.2−0.7−3.8−6.0−5.6
    Euro area−5.0−4.3−2.6−2.3−1.30.1−1.7−2.3−3.0−2.8
    Japan−4.7−5.0−3.8−5.5−7.2−7.4−6.1−7.5−7.4−6.5
    Other advanced economies−3.1−1.70.61.22.50.5−0.7−1.2−0.9
    General government structural balance2
    Advanced economies−3.8−3.0−1.7−1.3−1.1−1.0−1.4−2.8−3.5−3.2
    Growth of broad money3
    Advanced economies5.04.95.16.65.84.98.75.7
    United States3.94.65.68.56.36.110.26.8
    Euro area45.54.04.74.85.34.211.16.7
    Japan3.23.03.94.02.71.93.31.8
    Other advanced economies8.69.56.09.29.06.77.36.0
    Short-term interest rates5
    United States5.75.15.24.94.86.03.51.61.11.6
    Euro area47.15.24.44.13.04.54.23.32.52.7
    Japan0.80.30.30.20.00.20.00.00.00.0
    LIBOR6.15.65.95.65.56.63.71.91.32.0
    Developing countries
    Central government liscal balance1
    Weighted average−2.6−2.1−2.5−3.7−3.8−3.2−3.8−3.8−3.3−3.1
    Median−3.3−2.5−2.6−2.7−3.3−3.2−3.8−3.8−3.3−2.9
    General government liscal balance1
    Weighted average−3.2−2.8−3.3−4.7−4.8−4.0−4.7−4.8−4.1−3.6
    Median−3.3−2.8−2.5−3.3−3.5−3.3−3.7−4.3−3.1−2.6
    Growth of broad money
    Weighted average24.429.517.316.414.89.312.615.315.411.9
    Median16.215.614.710.512.211.811.812.39.99.3
    Countries in transition
    Central government fiscal balance1−4.8−4.7−4.9−3.7−2.1−0.3−0.1−0.9−0.7−0.6
    General government fiscal balance1−4.9−6.1−5.6−5.0−2.2−0.1−0.4−1.7−1.4−1.1
    Growth of broad money75.432.133.219.638.537.228.520.120.316.5

    Percent of GDP.

    Percent of potential GDP.

    M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs). Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro-area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

    Excludes Greece prior to 2001.

    For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for the euro area, a weighted average of national three-month money market interest rates through 1998 and three-month EURIBOR thereafter; for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

    Table 15.Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Fiscal Balances and Balances Excluding Social Security Transactions1(Percent of GDP)
    1995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    General government liscal balance
    Advanced economies−4.1−3.3−1.8−1.3−1.0−0.1−1.5−3.3−4.4−4.0
    United States−3.3−2.4−1.3−0.10.51.2−0.7−3.8−6.0−5.6
    Euro area−5.0−4.3−2.6−2.3−1.30.1−1.7−2.3−3.0−2.8
    Germany−3.3−3.4−2.7-2.2−1.51.3−2.8−3.5−3.9−3.9
    France2−5.5−4.1−3.0−2.7−1.8−1.4−1.4−3.1−4.0−3.5
    Italy−7.6−7.1−2.7−2.8−1.7−0.6−2.6−2.3−2.8−2.6
    Spain−7.0−4.9−3.2−2.7−1.1−0.6−0.1−0.1−0.2−0.2
    Netherlands−4.5−1.8−1.1−0.80.72.2−1.6−2.4−2.4
    Belgium−4.3−3.8−2.0−0.7−0.50.10.4−0.5−0.2
    Austria3−5.2−3.8−2.0−2.5−2.4−1.60.1−0.4−1.5−1.3
    Finland−3.7−3.2−1.51.31.97.05.04.62.00.9
    Greece−10.2−7.4−4.0−2.5−1.8−1.9−1.4−1.2−1.4−l 1
    Portugal−4.5−4.0−3.0−2.6−2.4−2.9−4.2−2.7−4.0−4.4
    Ireland4−2.2−0.31.22.44.14.31.1−0.1−1.1−1.7
    Luxembourg2.62.02.83.13.65.66.1−0.3−0.10.2
    Japan−4.7−5.0−3.8−5.5−7.2−7.4−6.1−7.5−7.4−6.5
    United Kingdom−5.8−4.4−2.20.21.14.00.9−1.3−2.5−2.7
    Canada−5.3−2.80.20.11.63.01.40.81.51.5
    Korea50.3−1.7−4.3−3.31.30.62.70.81.0
    Australia6−2.1−0.9−0.10.30.90.90.20.10.40.5
    Taiwan Province of China2.72.32.33.70.8−4.5−6.4−6.0−6.5−5.3
    Sweden−7.4−2.9−1.72.31.33.44.61.10.41.0
    Switzerland−1.9−2.0−2.4−0.4−0.22.60.2−1.1−2.2−2.3
    Hong Kong SAR−0.32.16.5−1.80.8−0.6−5.0−4.9−6.3−3.1
    Denmark−2.3−1.00.41.13.22.52.82.01.41.5
    Norway3.46.57.83.56.115.013.710.08.37.6
    Israel−4.3−5.8−4.4−3.7−4.2−2.0−4.0−4.4−6.8−4.8
    Singapore12.29.39.23.64.68.15.73.11.93.4
    New Zealand73.32.72.22.11.51.31.61.52.03.0
    Cyprus−1.0−3.4−5.3−5.5−4.0−2.7−2.8−3.5−5.4−4.9
    Iceland−3.0−1.60.52.42.50.5−0.3−0.10.7
    Other advanced economies−3.1−1.8−0.5−0.20.30.8−0.1−0.6−1.3−1.0
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies−4.3−3.6−2.1−1.6−1.2−0.3−1.8−3.8−5.1−4.7
    European Union−5.4−4.3−2.5−1.7−0.80.8−1.0−1.9−2.6−2.5
    Newly industrialized Asian economies3.33.34.42.41.4−1.7−4.3−4.4−5.2−3.5
    Fiscal balance excluding social security transactions
    United States−3.7−2.7−1.7−0.7−0.6−1.6−4.3−6.4−6.0
    Japan−7.0−7.2−6.0−7.2−8.7−8.5−6.3−7.8−7.6−6.3
    Germany−2.9−3.1−2.8−2.4−1.81.3−2.7−3.2−3.8−3.9
    France−4.8−3.6−2.6−2.5−2.0−2.0−1.7−3.2−3.5−3.2
    Italy−5.6−5.3−0.71.32.73.41.32.11.72.0
    Canada−2.73.02.73.94.93.02.32.92.9
    Central government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies−3.4−2.8−1.6−1.0−1.10.2−0.9−2.3−3.3−3.1
    United States8−2.6−1.8−0.60.51.22.10.7−2.2−4.3−4.2
    Euro area−4.1−3.8−2.6−2.4−1.6−0.4−1.5−2.0−2.4−2.3
    Germany9−1.4−2.2−1.7−1.5−1.31.3−1.1−1.5−1.9−1.7
    France−4.1−3.7−3.6−3.9−2.5−2.4−2.2−3.7−3.8−3.7
    Italy−8.0−7.0−2.9−2.7−1.6−1.0−2.8−2.6−2.9−2.7
    Japan10−4.6−4.6−4.2−4.0−8.7−7.2−6.7−6.3−6.1−5.4
    United Kingdom−5.5−4.6−2.20.31.24.10.9−1.4−2.6−2.8
    Canada−3.9−2.00.70.80.91.81.21.00.70.7
    Other advanced economies−2.6−1.7−1.0−1.2−0.70.8−0.2−0.5−1.2−0.8
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies−3.6−3.1−1.8−1.0−1.20.1−1.1−2.7−3.9−3.7
    European Union−4.6−4.1−2.6−1.9−1.10.3−1.1−1.9−2.3−2.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies1.01.00.8−1.3−1.21.0−0.6−0.7−2.1−1.1

    On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

    Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

    Based on ESA95 methodology, according to which swap income is not included.

    To maintain comparability, data excludes the impact of discharging future pension liabilities of the formerly state-owned telecommunications company at a cost of 1.8 percent of GDP in 1999.

    Data cover the consolidated central government including the social security funds but excluding privatization.

    Data exclude net advances (primarily privatization receipts and net policy-related lending).

    Government balance is revenue minus expenditure plus balance of state-owned enterprises, excluding privatization receipts. Data from 1992 onward are accrual based and are not strictly comparable with prior cash-based data.

    Data are on a budget basis.

    Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

    Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

    Table 16.Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances1(Percent of potential GDP)
    1995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Structural balance
    Advanced economies−3.8−3.0−1.7−1.3−1.1−1.0−1.4−2.8−3.5−3.2
    United States−2.7−1.9−1.1−0.20.6−0.5−3.2−5.1−4.9
    Euro area2,3−4.4−3.2−1.6−1.8−1.2−1.5−2.0−2.0−1.7−1.4
    Germany2,4−3.6−3.0−2.0−1.7−1.2−1.6−2.9−2.9−2.3−2.3
    France2−3.7−1.9−1.0−1.6−1.1−1.8−1.8−2.8−2.7-2 1
    Italy?−7.0−6.3−1.9−2.8−1.8−2.4−3.1−2.7−2.1−1.7
    Spain2−5.1−3.0−1.7−1.9−1.0−1.0−0.40.50.70.9
    Netherlands2−4.0−1.4−1.1−1.4−0.7−0.2−0.9−1.9−1.5−1.0
    Belgium2−4.1−2.9−1.9−0.7−0.9−1.2−0.40.40.81.3
    Austria2−5.0−3.7−1.7−2.5−2.6−2.80.20.50.10.5
    Finland0.30.30.12.01.16.05.15.43.52.4
    Greece−9.5−6.9−3.9−2.5−2.0−2.5−2.5−2.1−2.4−2.4
    Portugal2−3.2−2.9−2.4−2.7−2.9−4.2−4.7−2.3−2.3−2.2
    Ireland2−1.30.60.81.92.61.9−0.8−2.0−1.2−1.2
    Japan−4.4−5.4−4.2−5.0−6.2−7.0−5.4−6.5−6.7−5.9
    United Kingdom2−5.4−4.2−2.11.01.70.8−1.2−2.1−1.9
    Canada−5.4−2.00.80.51.42.11.20.8