Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
May 2002
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    ANNEX SUMMING UP BY THE CHAIRMAN

    The following remarks by the Chairman were made at the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion of the World Economic Outlook. They were made on September 4, 2002.

    Executive Directors noted that from the second quarter of 2002, economic and financial market developments have been mixed. They pointed to the negative developments on several fronts, including the sharp decline in global equity markets since end-March; the deterioration in financing conditions facing most emerging market borrowers—notably in Latin America; and weaknesses in a number of current and forward-looking indicators for the United States, Europe, and several other regions. These developments were especially disappointing against the backdrop of the strengthening of global economic indicators, including trade and industrial production, seen since end-2001, as well as first quarter growth that exceeded expectations in several regions.

    Directors noted that the world economy and the financial markets have shown considerable resilience in the face of multiple recent shocks and that, going forward, several factors should support a steady strengthening in global growth—including the continuing stimulus from earlier macroeconomic easing in many regions, the winding down of inventory corrections, and the recent signs of greater stability returning to global financial markets. Nonetheless, Directors expressed concern that recent developments have raised questions about the strength and sustainability of the recovery, and agreed with the assessment that, overall, the outlook for the remainder of 2002 and for 2003 is likely to be weaker than had been anticipated in the April World Economic Outlook.

    Directors assessed the risks to the short-term outlook as being predominantly on the downside. In particular, they noted that recent, and possibly further, equity price falls could have a more marked impact on domestic demand than currently expected—especially in the United States, which has led the global recovery to date. Directors noted that recent movements in major exchange rates are appropriate from a medium-term perspective, although in the short term some negative impact on the recovery in Japan and the euro area, which has so far been led by external demand, should not be ruled out. Many Directors also saw the persistently high U.S. current account deficit and the still high U.S. dollar value as posing some risk of an abrupt and disruptive adjustment. Directors were also concerned that tight emerging market financing conditions could further weaken growth prospects and increase vulnerabilities in a number of countries. They also noted the potential for further volatility in oil prices in the event of a deterioration in the security situation in the Middle East.

    Against the backdrop of heightened uncertainty about the strength of the recovery, Directors agreed that macroeconomic policies in most industrial countries will need to remain accommodative for longer than had been expected earlier in the year. Should the outlook weaken further, some further easing in monetary policy will likely be needed in the United States and in the euro area, provided inflationary pressures remain subdued in the United States and come down as expected in Europe. Directors noted that among emerging market economies, policy priorities necessarily vary widely. Where there is room for policy maneuver, they felt that the macroeconomic stance should, in general, remain accommodative, but in countries facing external financing difficulties, the restoration of financial market confidence through appropriate policies should be the priority. Looking ahead, Directors concurred that, in most industrial and emerging countries, fiscal restraint and progress with ongoing structural reforms will remain the essential priorities needed to strengthen and broaden the sources of growth over the medium term, to reduce global imbalances, and to improve resilience to future economic shocks.

    Major Currency Areas

    Turning to the prospects for the major currency areas, Directors agreed that recent indicators still generally point to the continued moderate recovery in the United States, supported by the further fall in long-term interest rates, the lower dollar, and the macroeconomic stimulus still in the pipeline. They noted that, nevertheless, important uncertainties to the outlook remain. These uncertainties relate to the extent to which equity market developments and corporate accounting scandals will affect consumption growth and investment recovery, the extent of overcapacity in a number of industries, and the outlook for productivity growth. Against this backdrop, Directors recommended that the Federal Reserve should wait to withdraw monetary stimulus until the recovery is firmly established, and that it consider further easing if incoming data remain weak. While fiscal policy has provided welcome support to activity during the economic slowdown, Directors noted that following its recent deterioration, the medium-term fiscal outlook will need to be strengthened. Many Directors recommended that the U.S. authorities adopt a medium-term budgetary framework directed at attaining budget balance over the business cycle, both to increase domestic saving and to better prepare for the fiscal pressures from population aging. Noting that restoration of confidence will be key to underpinning the recovery, Directors welcomed the U.S. authorities’ swift actions to strengthen corporate governance and auditing, and considered that their vigorous implementation and enforcement, as well as their possible further strengthening if needed, will be crucial to ensuring that they have the necessary impact.

    Directors were encouraged by recent indicators in Japan, suggesting that activity is stabilizing. They were concerned, however, that economic signals still remain mixed. With the outlook for domestic demand remaining weak, the modest rebound projected for the rest of 2002 and for 2003 is subject to downside risks, particularly if, in an uncertain external environment, the global recovery turns out to be weaker than expected or if the yen appreciates further. Directors agreed that strong implementation of structural reforms to improve the financial health and profitability of the banking sector, accelerate corporate restructuring, and increase investment opportunities remain key to strengthen Japan’s growth prospects durably. To support activity in the short term, most Directors recommended a more aggressive monetary stimulus, combined with a public commitment to end deflation in the near future. In view of the high level of public debt, Directors agreed that the focus of fiscal policy will need to turn toward gradual consolidation. They suggested that in the context of an acceleration in structural reforms, the authorities should consider maintaining a neutral fiscal stance in the short run to mitigate any initial negative impact on growth of the reforms.

    Directors noted that recovery is not yet well established in the euro area, with domestic demand still weak—especially in Germany and Italy—and the resilience of export-led growth possibly at risk should the global recovery falter. Several factors should, however, support a steady—albeit moderate—pickup in activity in late 2002 and in 2003, including growth in household and corporate earnings, lower inflation—partly as a result of a stronger euro—and improvements in labor market performance over recent years. Given the hesitant recovery, and with risks to price stability having become more balanced, Directors concurred that monetary policy should remain on hold for the time being, and that the ECB should stand ready to consider interest rate cuts if activity weakens and inflation declines as expected. With budgetary positions in several countries having become more difficult, most Directors saw little room for maneuver on the fiscal front. Directors generally were of the view that in most euro-area countries, a further strengthening of fiscal positions over the medium term will still be needed to prepare for the effects of population aging and to provide scope for reductions in high tax burdens. In addition, building on the significant progress achieved in recent years, Europe should press ahead with the sustained implementation of structural reforms, especially in its labor and product markets, as these will boost productivity and growth potential. Some Directors encouraged deeper analysis of the impact of the structural reforms in Europe on potential output.

    Directors welcomed the staff’s analysis of external imbalances in the industrial countries during the 1990s as providing a useful framework for discussing policy responses in a multilateral setting. They noted that the significant expansion in current account imbalances among deficit countries reflects faster growth combined with buoyant expectations about future economic prospects associated with the IT revolution, which has supported real demand and fostered autonomous capital inflows. Directors agreed that existing current account imbalances are unlikely to be viable over the medium term, and that an adjustment will be needed over the coming years, with its speed likely to reflect in part underlying differences in growth prospects across countries. To enhance prospects for a smooth rotation of demand from countries in deficit to those in surplus, Directors reiterated the importance of fiscal consolidation in deficit countries, which should be combined with accelerated structural reforms in surplus countries designed to make these economies more flexible, and enhance their medium-term growth potential and demand.

    Emerging Markets

    Directors noted that developments and prospects among emerging markets are being shaped by the hesitant recovery in industrialized economies, adverse developments—including heightened risk aversion—in international financial markets, and significant economic and political uncertainties in some major economies with large external financing requirements. In particular, Directors expressed concern about the sharp deterioration of economic conditions in Latin America, although some countries continue to resist the region’s difficulties reasonably well. They noted that this deterioration partly reflects the turmoil in Argentina and its spillover effects on some neighboring countries, notably Uruguay. The difficulties being faced by a number of Latin American economies are, however, also largely the result of interactions between domestic political uncertainties and underlying economic vulnerabilities, particularly high debt levels, large external financing requirements, and—in some countries—fragile banking systems. To reduce these vulnerabilities, Directors urged these countries to make further determined efforts to achieve sustainable improvements in fiscal positions, maintain firm monetary policies, and push ahead with wide-ranging structural reforms—including measures to strengthen banking systems and liberalize external trade.

    In contrast to most other regions, activity in emerging markets in Asia has picked up markedly, led by strong growth in China and India and improvements among countries most oriented to the information technology sector. To reduce remaining vulnerabilities, Directors agreed that in general policy priorities across the region will need to include creating the conditions for a sustainable strengthening of domestic demand and improving the region’s resilience to shocks, including through further bank and corporate restructuring, strengthening medium-term fiscal sustainability, and ensuring appropriate flexibility in exchange rate regimes. Noting the increasing contribution of intra-Asian trade to regional stability and growth, Directors also highlighted the importance of ensuring that the Asian economies remain sufficiently flexible and dynamic to take advantage of prospective changes in intraregional trade opportunities—including as a result of China’s rapid growth and entry into the World Trade Organization.

    Growth among most of the European Union accession candidates in central and eastern Europe has been relatively well sustained, aided by strong domestic demand and export growth. Although the high current account deficits in many of these countries have been readily financed, especially through direct investment, Directors suggested continued vigilance to ensure that these investment inflows are sustained. Fiscal restraint, together with structural reforms, will help underpin market confidence and support economic adjustment. Noting the recent increases in economic and political uncertainties in Turkey, Directors urged the authorities to maintain their commitment to macroeconomic stability and structural reforms, including improvements in bank supervision and public financial management.

    Directors noted that growth in the CIS—especially Russia and other countries relatively advanced with economic reforms—has remained reasonably strong, mainly on account of robust domestic demand. The key medium-term challenge remaining for the region is to accelerate the reform process, especially among the less advanced reformers whose growth performance continues to be hampered by macroeconomic instability, lack of corporate restructuring, and an unfavorable investment climate. Directors looked forward to improved prospects for the lowest-income CIS countries, with technical and financial assistance provided under the CIS-7 Initiative supporting their reform efforts.

    Directors noted that growth in Africa has weakened in 2002 as a result of commodity price developments, the severe drought in southern Africa, and the remaining conflicts in some countries. The expected strengthening of external demand and improvement in commodity prices are, however, expected to support a pickup in growth in 2003. Welcoming the substantial progress that many African economies have made since the mid-1990s toward macroeconomic stability, Directors agreed that the pressing need now is to improve the overall environment for investment and growth—particularly by strengthening the economic infrastructure and the main market institutions, as well as the quality of governance. In this context, Directors looked forward to the sustained implementation, with appropriate external support, of the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD), which embraces these key priorities. They also noted the positive contribution of the HIPC Initiative in reinforcing growth prospects and development efforts in the region.

    Directors noted that, following the recent slowdown, growth in the Middle East is expected to pick up in the near term, assuming the global recovery gains momentum, oil prices remain firm, and the regional security situation improves. In several countries, sustaining stronger and broader-based growth will also importantly require strengthening the fiscal situation and accelerating structural reforms, especially as regards trade and price liberalization.

    Agricultural Policies

    Directors welcomed the essay on agricultural policies as an important contribution to the increasing body of Fund analysis demonstrating the benefits of trade liberalization for both industrial and developing countries. They noted that the extremely high level of support provided to farmers in industrial countries affects developing countries in various ways—including by depressing the world prices of commodities of interest to poor farmers and by increasing world price variability. Directors strongly encouraged industrial countries to use the opportunity provided by the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations to reduce agricultural support and/or shift to less distorting forms of support—moves that would bring aggregate gains by increasing efficiency and real incomes in both industrial and developing countries. Directors also saw a need for food-importing poor countries to receive appropriately targeted assistance to mitigate the effects of higher food prices resulting from liberalization.

    Capital Structure and Corporate Performance

    Directors welcomed the essay on capital structure and corporate performance with its focus on differences in corporate structures and financial vulnerabilities across emerging market countries. Directors underscored the importance of close monitoring of the health of the corporate sector and of strengthening financial sector supervision, in particular to take account of the significant increase in corporate leverage that normally occurs as countries move from low to moderate levels of financial development. They generally agreed with the main thrust of the staff’s findings that greater openness to foreign investment tends to reduce leverage and reliance on short-term debt, thus helping strengthen corporate performance—but cautioned that care should be taken to avoid currency mismatches in balance sheets.

    Trade and Financial Integration

    Directors welcomed the analysis of trade and financial integration. They noted the observed complementarity of trade integration and financial integration, both over time and across countries, with policy liberalization being the driving force of the integration process in the current episode of globalization. Despite the overall historical trend toward progressive liberalization, today’s trade and capital account restrictions across the world continue to restrain global trade flows. Full liberalization around the globe will surely increase international trade flows significantly. Directors also agreed that trade and financial integration tend to reinforce each other. Increased trade integration is naturally accompanied by rising international financial flows, which in turn fosters financial integration. At the same time, increased financial integration fosters trade integration, as financial frictions partly explain the segmentation of global goods markets. Based on this analysis, Directors were of the view that balanced trade and financial integration is essential, since recent experience reemphasizes that an uneven pattern of integration can pose risks to macroeconomic stability. Directors also discussed, and many endorsed, the finding that—along with macroeconomic stability and domestic financial and institutional development—international financial openness reduces output volatility. A number of Directors, however, stressed that financial openness could be risky, especially if the domestic financial sector is insufficiently robust. They also noted that, while greater openness to FDI and portfolio flows is associated with lower output volatility, higher external debt ratios lead to higher output volatility in both financially open and closed economies.

    STATISTICAL APPENDIX

    The statistical appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises four sections: Assumptions, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables.

    The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2002–03 and the medium-term scenario for 2004–07 are summarized in the first section. The second section provides a general description of the data, and of the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the third section.

    The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through early September 2002. The figures for 2002 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; since they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

    Assumptions

    Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the period July 19–August 16, 2002. For 2002 and 2003, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.293 and 1.324, U.S. dollar/euro conversion rates of 0.94 and 0.98, and U.S. dollar/yen conversion rates of 124.0 and 117.2.

    Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected advanced economies are described in Box A1.

    It is assumed that the price of oil will average $24.40 a barrel in 2002 and $24.20 a barrel in 2003.

    With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 2.1 percent in 2002 and 3.2 percent in 2003; that the three-month certificate of deposit rate in Japan will average 0.1 percent in 2002 and in 2003; and that the three-month interbank deposit rate for the euro will average 3.4 percent in 2002 and 3.8 percent in 2003.

    With respect to introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998 the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member states adopting the euro are:

    1 euro=13.7603Austrian schillings
    =40.3399Belgian francs
    =1.95583Deutsche mark
    =5.94573Finnish markkaa
    =6.55957French francs
    =340.750Greek drachma1
    =0.787564Irish pound
    =1,936.27Italian lire
    =40.3399Luxembourg francs
    =2.20371Netherlands guilders
    =200.482Portuguese escudos
    =166.386Spanish pesetas

    See Box 5.4 in the October 1998 World Economic Outlook for details on how the conversion rates were established.

    Data and Conventions

    Data and projections for 182 countries form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook (the World Economic Outlook database). The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and area departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

    Box A1.Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies

    The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the World Economic Outlook are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. In cases where the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless otherwise indicated. Specific assumptions used in some of the advanced economies follow (see also Tables 1416 in the Statistical Appendix for data on fiscal and structural balances).1

    United States. The fiscal projections are based on the 2003 mid-session review of the Administration’s budget (July 2002), adjusted for Congressional Budget Office’s baseline revisions (August 2002) and the IMF staff’s macroeconomic and budget assumptions.

    Japan. The projections take into account the initial FY2002 budget, the first supplementary budget of November 2001 which included additional measures of about ¥3 trillion, and the second supplementary budget of February 2002 with measures of ¥4 trillion, of which ¥2.5 trillion is central government spending and ¥1.5 trillion is local government spending.

    Germany. Fiscal projections for 2002–05 are based on the national authorities’ updated Stability Program of December 2001, as adjusted for (i) the IMF staff’s updated macroeconomic scenario; (ii) differences between the Stability Program’s estimates for fiscal developments in 2001 and the outcome in 2001; (iii) the new expenditure paths agreed under the national stability pact between the federal and local governments in May 2002, as reflected in the updated medium-term fiscal projections prepared by the Finanzplanungsrat—the advisory intergovernmental council that coordinates fiscal policy between the Bund and Länder—in June 2002; and (iv) recently announced changes to expenditure and taxes that are related to flood damage repair.

    France. The IMF staff has assumed that, other than the tax cuts already embodied in the 2002 supplementary budget, the government’s intention to reduce the tax burden by €30 billion will result in cuts spread over the 2004–07 period. Expenditures are assumed to grow at an annual real rate of 1.3 percent, as set in the latest available Stability Program (2003–05) except in 2003, when overruns in health care spending are projected to result in faster overall expenditure growth. Projections are based on the staff’s macroeconomic assumptions.

    Italy. Fiscal projections for 2003 and beyond are based on the authorities’ targets as published in their medium term economic program released in July 2002, adjusted for differences in macroeconomic assumptions.

    United Kingdom. The fiscal projections are based on the April 2002 budget report. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from the Office for National Statistics, including provisional budgetary outturns throughout May 2002. The main difference with respect to the official budgetary projections is that the staff projections are based on potential growth of 2.6 percent rather than the 2.5 percent underlying official projections. They also include an adjustment for the proceeds of the recent UMTS license auction (about 2.4 percent of GDP) received in fiscal year 2000/01 to conform to the Eurostat accounting guidelines. These proceeds are not included in the computation of the structural balance.

    Canada. The fiscal outlook assumes tax and expenditure policies in line with those outlined in the government’s 2001 budget, announced in December 2001, adjusted for the staff’s economic projections. Over the medium term, the staff assumes that the federal government budget will be in surplus by an amount equivalent to the contingency reserve in the budget. The staff assumes that the contingency reserve is restored to its pre-2001 budget level of Can$3 billion after FY 2003/04. The consolidated fiscal position for the provinces is assumed to evolve in line with their stated medium-term targets.

    Australia. The fiscal projections through the fiscal year 2005/06 are based on the 2002/03 budget, which was published by the Australian Treasury in May 2002. For the remainder of the projection period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.

    Netherlands. Projections for 2002 reflect the 2002 budget adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections. For 2003–06, the forecasts are based on the authorities’ multiyear framework as laid out in the new cabinet’s coalition agreement adjusted for the staff’s macroeconomic projections. The framework in based on a binding multiyear ceiling on real expenditure.

    Portugal. The fiscal projections for 2002 take into account the authorities’ revised estimates for 2001, assume that 2002 fiscal measures yield the effects estimated by the authorities, and adjust revenue projections for differences between the authorities’ and staff’s macroeconomic framework. Fiscal projections for 2003–07 assume a constant structural primary balance.

    Spain. Fiscal projections through 2005 are based on the policies outlined in the national authorities’ updated Stability Program of December 2001. Projections for subsequent years assume no significant changes in those policies.

    Sweden. Projections for 2002 are based on the central government budget outturn for the first quarter of 2002, and the policies and projections (for general government) underlying the Spring Budget Bill published in April 2002. The projections also take account of the authorities’ medium-term fiscal objective of a general government surplus of 2 percent of GDP over the economic cycle, the Ministry of Finance’s medium-term fiscal projections for 2003–04, and the nominal ceilings on central government expenditures for the same period.

    Switzerland. Projections for 2002 are based on the official budget plans, including supplementary budgets, and preliminary figures on the budget outturn. The projections for 2003–05 are based on official budget plans that include measures to strengthen the finances of social security. Beyond 2005, the general government’s structural balance is assumed to remain unchanged.

    Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: official interest rates will therefore increase when economic indicators suggest that prospective inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range; and they will decrease when indicators suggest that prospective inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that prospective output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant. On this basis, the projected path for the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits—2.1 percent on average in 2002 and 3.2 percent in 2003—and the federal funds target rate are broadly consistent with market expectations as of early September 2002. The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.1 percent in 2002 and 0.1 percent in 2003, with the current monetary policy framework being maintained. The rate on six-month euro deposits is assumed to average 3.4 percent in 2002 and 3.8 in 2003. Changes in interest rate assumptions compared with the April 2002 World Economic Outlook are summarized in Table 1.1.

    1 The output gap is actual less potential output, as a percent of potential output. Structural balances are expressed as a percent of potential output. The structural budget balance is the budgetary position that would be observed if the level of actual output coincided with potential output. Changes in the structural budget balance consequently include effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other non-cyclical fluctuations in the budget balance. The computations of structural budget balances are based on IMF staff estimates of potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities (see the October 1993 World Economic Outlook, Annex I). Net debt is defined as gross debt less financial assets of the general government, which include assets held by the social security insurance system. Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.

    Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the national compilation of statistics, including the analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The World Economic Outlook database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

    The completion in 1993 of the comprehensive revision of the standardized System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA) and the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM) represented important improvements in the standards of economic statistics and analysis.2 The IMF was actively involved in both projects, particularly the new Balance of Payments Manual, which reflects the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions. Key changes introduced with the new Manual were summarized in Box 13 of the May 1994 World Economic Outlook. The process of adapting country balance of payments data to the definitions of the new BPM. began with the May 1995 World Economic Outlook. However, full concordance with the BPM is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, and hence the World Economic Outlook estimates are still only partially adapted to the BPM.

    The members of the European Union have recently adopted a harmonized system for the compilation of the national accounts, referred to as ESA 1995. All national accounts data from 1995 onward are now presented on the basis of the new system. Revision by national authorities of data prior to 1995 to conform to the new system has progressed, but has in some cases not been completed. In such cases, historical World Economic Outlook data have been carefully adjusted to avoid breaks in the series. Users of EU national accounts data prior to 1995 should nevertheless exercise caution until such time as the revision of historical data by national statistical agencies has been fully completed. See Box 1.2, Revisions in National Accounts Methodologies, in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook.

    Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change. Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the developing and transition country groups, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply.

    • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and the growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.

    • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities (PPPs) as a share of total world or group GDP.3

    • Composites for data relating to the domestic economy for the euro area (12 member countries throughout the entire period unless otherwise noted) are aggregates of national source data using weights based on 1995 ECU exchange rates.

    • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

    • Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

      For central and eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies (through 1990) are converted to U.S. dollars at the implicit U.S. dollar/ruble conversion rates obtained from each country’s national currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and for the ruble.

    Classification of Countries

    Summary of the Country Classification

    The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into three major groups: advanced economies, developing countries, and countries in transition.4 Rather than being based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, this classification has evolved over time with the objective of facilitating analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful organization of data. A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members, and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been compiled. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, whereas San Marino, among the advanced economies, is an example of an economy for which a database has not been completed. It should also be noted that, owing to a lack of data, only three of the former republics of the dissolved Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Slovenia) are included in the group composites for countries in transition.

    Each of the three main country groups is further divided into a number of subgroups. Among the advanced economies, the seven largest in terms of GDP, collectively referred to as the major advanced economies, are distinguished as a subgroup, and so are the 15 current members of the European Union, the 12 members of the euro area, and the four newly industrialized Asian economies. The developing countries are classified by region, as well as into a number of analytical and other groups. A regional breakdown is also used for the classification of the countries in transition. Table A provides an overview of these standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average 2001 shares of groups in aggregate PPP-valued GDP, total exports of goods and services, and population.

    Table A.Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20011(Percent of total for group or world)
    Number of CountriesGDPExports of Goods and ServicesPopulation
    Share of total for
    Advanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorld
    Advanced Economies29100.056.3100.075.1100.015.4
    Major advanced economies779.444.761.946.574.311.5
    United States38.021.418.113.629.74.6
    Japan13.07.38.06.013.62.1
    Germany8.04.511.68.78.81.4
    France5.73.26.65.06.41.0
    Italy5.53.15.34.06.20.9
    United Kingdom5.63.16.85.16.41.0
    Canada3.52.05.44.13.30.5
    Other advanced economies2220.611.638.128.625.74.0
    Memorandum
    European Union1535.419.950.237.740.36.2
    Euro area1228.315.940.330.332.45.0
    Newly industrialized Asian countries45.93.312.59.48.61.3
    Developing countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorld
    Developing countries125100.037.6100.020.3100.078.0
    Regional groups
    Africa518.53.29.92.016.012.5
    Sub-Sahara4.86.62.57.21.514.511.3
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa4.63.81.43.50.710.88.4
    Developing Asia2559.122.246.19.366.952.2
    China32.212.119.74.026.921.0
    India12.54.74.40.921.416.7
    Other developing Asia2314.45.422.14.518.614.5
    Middle East and Turkey1610.64.020.74.26.45.0
    Western Hemisphere3321.88.223.34.710.78.4
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel189.33.520.44.17.05.5
    Nonfuel10990.734.179.616.193.072.5
    Of which, primary products426.32.46.01.211.18.6
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries11397.336.588.818.099.377.4
    Of which, official financing435.62.15.41.113.910.8
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–985.524.69.224.04.929.222.8
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries4.05.11.94.60.914.010.9
    Middle East and north Africa2110.53.919.84.07.55.9
    Countries in transitionWorldCountries in transitionWorldCountries in transitionWorld
    Countries in transition28100.06.2100.04.7100.06.6
    Central and eastern Europe1637.62.352.52.428.81.9
    CIS and Mongolia1262.43.847.52.271.24.7
    Russia42.82.632.21.536.42.4
    Excluding Russia1119.61.215.30.734.72.3

    The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs.

    General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

    Advanced Economies

    The 29 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The seven largest in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. The current members of the European Union (15 countries), the euro area (12 countries), and the newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables for the European Union and the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

    Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup
    European UnionEuro AreaNewly Industrialized Asian EconomiesOther Countries
    Major advanced economiesFranceFranceCanada
    GermanyGermanyJapan
    ItalyItalyUnited States
    United Kingdom
    Other advanced economiesAustriaLuxembourgAustriaHong Kong SAR1Australia
    BelgiumNetherlandsBelgiumKoreaCyprus
    DenmarkPortugalFinlandSingaporeIceland
    FinlandSpainGreeceTaiwan Province of ChinaIsrael
    GreeceSwedenIrelandNew Zealand
    IrelandLuxembourgNorway
    NetherlandsSwitzerland
    Portugal
    Spain

    On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

    In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the eastern Lander (i.e., the former German Democratic Republic). Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. Hence, in tables featuring data expressed as annual percent change, these apply to west Germany in years up to and including 1991, but to unified Germany from 1992 onward. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

    Developing Countries

    The group of developing countries (125 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as advanced economies or as countries in transition, together with a few dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.

    The regional breakdowns of developing countries in the World Economic Outlook conform to the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) classification—Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, and Western Hemisphere—with one important exception. Because all of the non-advanced countries in Europe except Malta and Turkey are included in the group of countries in transition, the World Economic Outlook classification places these two countries in a combined Middle East and Turkey region. In both classifications, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in this region, not in Africa. Three additional regional groupings—two of them constituting part of Africa and one a subgroup of Asia—are included in the World Economic Outlook because of their analytical significance. These are sub-Sahara, sub-Sahara excluding Nigeria and South Africa, and Asia excluding China and India.

    The developing countries are also classified according to analytical criteria and into other groups. The analytical criteria reflect countries’ composition of export earnings and other income from abroad, a distinction between net creditor and net debtor countries, and, for the net debtor countries, financial criteria based on external financing source and experience with external debt servicing. Included as “other groups” are currently the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), and Middle East and north Africa (MENA). The detailed composition of developing countries in the regional, analytical, and other groups is shown in Tables C through E.

    Table C.Developing Countries by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
    FuelNonfuel, Of Which Primary Products
    Africa
    Sub-SaharaAngolaBenin
    Congo, Rep. ofBotswana
    Equatorial GuineaBurkina Faso
    GabonBurundi
    NigeriaCentral African Rep.
    Chad
    Congo, Democratic Rep.of
    Côte d’Ivoire
    Gambia, The
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Namibia
    Niger
    Somalia
    Sudan
    Swaziland
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    North AfricaAlgeria
    Developing AsiaBrunei DarussalamBhutan
    Cambodia
    Myanmar
    Papua New Guinea
    Solomon Islands
    Vanuatu
    Vietnam
    Middle East, and TurkeyBahrain
    Iran, Islamic Rep. of
    Iraq
    Kuwait
    Libya
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    United Arab Emirates
    Western HemisphereTrinidad and TobagoBelize
    VenezuelaBolivia
    Chile
    Guyana
    Honduras
    Nicaragua
    Paraguay
    Peru
    Suriname

    The first analytical criterion, by source of export earnings, distinguishes between categories: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68).

    The financial criteria focus on net creditor and net debtor countries which are differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by official external financing and by experience with debt servicing.5

    The other groups of developing countries (seeTable E) constitute the HIPCs and MENA countries. The first group comprises 40 of the countries (all except Nigeria) considered by the IMF and the World Bank for their debt initiative, known as the HIPC Initiative.6 Middle East and north Africa, also referred to as the MENA countries, is a World Economic Outlook group, whose composition straddles the Africa and Middle East and Europe regions. It is defined as the Arab League countries plus the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    Table D.Developing Countries by Region and Main External Financing Source
    Net Debtor CountriesNet Debtor Countries
    By main external financing sourceBy main external financing source
    CountriesNet debtor countriesOf which official financingCountriesNet debtor countriesOf which official financing
    AfricaDeveloping Asia
    Sub-SaharaAfghanistan, Islamic State of
    AngolaBangladesh
    BeninBhutan
    Burkina FasoCambodia
    China
    BurundiFiji
    Cameroon
    Cape VerdeIndia
    Indonesia Kiribati
    Central African Rep.Kiribati
    Chad
    ComorosLao People’s Democratic Rep.
    Malaysia
    Congo. Democratic Rep ofMaldives
    Congo. Rep. ofMyanmar
    Côte d’IvoireNepal
    DjiboutiPakistan
    Equatorial Guinea EritreaPapua New Guinea
    EritreaPhilippines
    EthiopiaSamoa
    GabonSolomon Islands
    Gambia, TheSri Lanka
    Thailand
    Ghana
    GuineaTonga
    Guinea-BissauVanuatu
    Vietnam
    kenya
    LesothoMiddle East, and Turkey
    LiberiaBahrain
    MadagascarEgypt
    MalawiIran, islamic Rep. Of
    MaliIraq
    MauritaniaJordan
    MauritiusLebanon
    Mozambique. Rep. ofMalta
    NamibiaOman
    NigerSyrian Arab Rep.
    NigeriaTurkey
    RwandaYemen, Rep. of
    São Tomé and Príncipe
    SenegalWestern Hemisphere
    Antigua and Barbuda
    SeychellesArgentina
    Sierra LeoneBahamas, The
    SomaliaBarbados
    South AfricaBelize
    SudanBolivia
    TanzaniaBrazil
    TogoChile
    UgandaColombia
    ZambiaCosta Rica
    ZimbabweDominica
    North AfricaDominican Rep.
    AlgeriaEcuador
    MoroccoEl Salvador
    TunisiaGrenada
    GuatemalaParaguay
    GuyanaPeru
    HaitiSt. Kitts and Nevis
    HondurasSt. Lucia
    JamaicaSt. Vincent and the Grenadines
    MexicoSuriname
    Netherlands AntillesTrinidad and Tobago
    NicaraguaUruguay
    PanamaVenezuela
    Table E.Other Developing Country Groups
    CountriesHeavily Indebted Poor CountriesMiddle East and North AfricaCountriesHeavily Indebted Poor CountriesMiddle East and North Africa
    AfricaTanzania
    Sub-SaharaTogo
    AngolaUganda
    BeninZambia
    Burkina FasoNorth Africa
    BurundiAlgeria
    CameroonMorocco
    Central African Rep.Tunisia
    ChadDeveloping Asia
    Congo, Democratic Rep. ofLao People’s Democratic Rep.
    Congo, Rep. OfMyanmar
    Vietnam
    Côte d’Ivoire
    DjiboutiMiddle East, and Turkey
    EthiopiaBahrain
    Gambia. TheEgypt
    GhanaIran, Islamic Rep, Of
    GuineaIraq
    Jordan
    Guinea-BissauKuwait
    Kenya
    LiberiaLebanon
    Liberia
    MadagascarLibya
    Malawi
    MaliOman
    Qatar
    MauritaniaSaudi Arabia
    Mozambique, Rep. ofSyrian Arab Rep.
    NigerUnited Arab Emirates
    RwandaYemen, Rep. of
    Sãm Tomé and Príncipe
    SenegalWestern Hemisphere
    Bolivia
    Sierra LeoneGuyana
    SomaliaHonduras
    SudanNicaragua

    Countries in Transition

    The group of countries in transition (29 countries) is divided into two regional subgroups: central and eastern Europe, and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia. The detailed country composition is shown in Table F

    Table F.Countries in Transition by Region
    Central and Eastern EuropeCommonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia
    AlbaniaLithuaniaArmenia
    Bosnia and HerzegovinaMacedonia, former Yugoslav Republic ofAzerbaijan
    BulgariaPolandBelarus
    CroatiaRomaniaGeorgia
    Czech RepublicSlovak RepublicKazakhstan
    EstoniaSloveniaKyrgyz Republic
    HungaryYugoslavia, Federal Republic of (Serbia/Montenegro)Moldova
    LatviaMongolia
    Russia
    Tajikistan
    Turkmenistan
    Ukraine
    Uzbekistan

    One common characteristic of these countries is the transitional state of their economies from a centrally administered system to one based on market principles. Another is that this transition involves the transformation of sizable industrial sectors whose capital stocks have proven largely obsolete. Although several other countries are also “in transition” from partially command-based economic systems toward market- based systems (including China, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Vietnam, and a number of African countries), most of these are largely rural, low-income economies for whom the principal challenge is one of economic development. These countries are therefore classified in the developing country group rather than in the group of countries in transition.

    List of Tables

    Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

    Table 1.Summary of World Output1(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1984–931994–20031994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    World3.33.63.73.74.04.22.83.64.72.22.83.7
    Advanced economies3.22.73.42.73.03.42.73.43.80.81.72.5
    United States3.23.24.02.73.64.44.34.13.80.32.22.6
    European Union2.42.42.82.41.72.62.92.83.51.61.12.3
    Japan3.71.00.91.73.61.8−1.20.82.4−0.3−0.51.1
    Other advanced economies4.74.15.95.04.34.61.25.96.01.33.63.9
    Developing countries5.15.26.76.26.55.93.54.05.73.94.25.2
    Regional groups
    Africa2.03.42.33.05.63.13.42.83.03.53.14.2
    Developing Asia7.66.89.79.08.36.64.06.16.75.66.16.3
    Middle East and Turkey23.53.60.54.44.76.23.61.26.11.53.64.7
    Western Hemisphere2.92.55.01.83.65.22.30.24.00.6−0.63.0
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel2.63.20.43.33.45.42.81.55.24.12.24.3
    Nonfuel5.45.47.46.56.85.93.64.25.83.94.45.3
    of which, primary products3.14.35.36.55.65.53.02.63.62.83.24.7
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries5.25.36.96.36.75.93.54.15.73.94.35.3
    of which, official financing2.44.22.55.35.34.33.94.03.94.33.84.8
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–983.03.74.75.25.04.6−0.62.34.63.33.44.3
    Countries in transition−1.41.3−8.5−1.6−0.51.6−0.73.76.65.03.94.5
    Central and eastern Europe3.33.25.24.12.62.42.23.83.02.73.8
    Commonwealth of Independent
    States and Mongolia0.1−14.5−5.5−3.31.1−2.84.68.46.34.64.9
    Russia0.2−13.5−4.2−3.40.9−4.95.49.05.04.44.9
    Excluding Russia−0.1−16.6−8.6−3.11.51.62.86.98.95.24.9
    Memorandum
    Median growth rate
    Advanced economies3.13.14.12.93.63.73.53.64.01.41.62.5
    Developing countries3.53.93.94.54.64.83.73.54.02.83.04.0
    Countries in transition−1.33.0−2.70.83.13.73.93.35.35.04.34.8
    Output per capita
    Advanced economies2.52.22.72.12.32.82.12.93.30.31.22.2
    Developing countries3.13.55.04.44.84.21.92.44.12.32.63.7
    Countries in transition−2.01.5−8.5−1.6−0.41.7−0.63.86.95.34.24.8
    World growth based on market exchange rates2.92.72.92.83.33.52.23.13.91.11.72.8
    Value of world output In billions of U.S. dollars
    At market exchange rates19,21430,35726,26129,12029,86129,72829,52730,59331,37430,99532,05934,049
    At purchasing power parities24,20541,42032,17033,99636,03238,24139,72941,69144,63146,74248,85352,114

    Real GDP.

    Includes Malta.

    Table 2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1984–931994–20031994199519961997199819992000200120022003200120022003
    Real GDP
    Advanced economies3.22.73.42.73.03.42.73.43.80.81.72.5
    Major advanced economies3.02.53.12.42.83.22.83.03.40.61.42.3−0.32.32.4
    United States3.23.24.02.73.64.44.34.13.80.32.22.60.12.63.1
    Japan3.71.00.91.73.61.8−1.20.82.4−0.3−0.51.1−3.21.60.7
    Germany2.81.62.31.70.81.42.02.02.90.60.52.00.11.62.0
    France2.02.31.91.81.11.93.53.24.21.81.22.30.22.42.2
    Italy2.11.92.22.91.12.01.81.62.91.80.72.30.61.82.1
    United Kingdom2.42.84.72.92.63.42.92.43.11.91.72.41.52.61.9
    Canada2.63.64.82.81.64.24.15.44.51.53.43.40.84.23.3
    Other advanced economies3.83.74.64.33.84.32.25.05.31.62.63.3
    Spain2.93.22.42.82.44.04.34.24.22.72.02.72.32.13.2
    Netherlands2.72.83.22.33.03.94.34.03.41.20.42.00.21.02.4
    Belgium2.22.43.22.51.23.62.23.04.01.00.62.2
    Sweden1.62.84.13.71.12.13.64.53.61.21.62.50.72.02.9
    Austria2.32.12.61.62.01.63.52.83.01.00.92.3
    Denmark1.62.65.52.82.53.02.52.33.01.01.52.20.32.12.0
    Finland1.23.84.03.84.06.35.34.15.60.71.13.0−1.23.52.5
    Greece21.83.22.02.12.43.63.43.64.14.13.73.2
    Portugal2.92.82.42.93.73.84.73.43.21.70.41.51.00.11.5
    Ireland3.48.05.810.07.810.88.610.911.55.93.85.3
    Luxembourg6.25.14.13.53.69.05.86.07.53.52.75.1
    Switzerland1.81.30.50.50.31.72.41.63.00.91.9−0.20.72.3
    Norway2.93.25.34.65.35.22.62.12.41.41.71.9
    Israel4.53.68.66.84.73.33.02.67.4−0.9−1.51.8
    Iceland2.13.24.50.15.24.65.03.65.53.1−0.5−1.7
    Cyprus5.84.15.96.11.92.55.04.55.14.02.54.0
    Korea8.25.78.38.96.85.0−6.710.99.33.06.35.93.76.55.3
    Australia3.74.04.83.54.33.75.24.83.12.64.04.03.84.23.7
    Taiwan Province of China8.34.77.16.46.16.74.65.45.9−1.93.34.0−1.64.03.7
    Hong Kong SAR6.53.15.43.94.55.0−5.33.010.40.21.53.4−1.73.82.4
    Singapore7.55.811.48.07.78.5−0.16.910.3−2.03.64.2−6.66.13.0
    New Zealand2.33.25.84.33.62.2−0.23.93.82.53.02.93.13.42.1
    Memorandum
    European Union2.42.42.82.41.72.62.92.83.51.61.12.3
    Euro area2.42.22.42.21.42.32.92.83.51.50.92.30.41.92.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.05.17.77.56.35.8−2.48.08.50.84.74.91.05.74.5
    Real total domestic demand3.22.83.42.73.03.23.04.03.80.71.82.6
    Advanced economies
    Major advanced economies3.02.73.12.22.83.13.53.83.60.61.52.4−0.42.42.5
    United States3.23.64.42.53.74.75.45.04.40.42.72.70.13.03.3
    Japan3.81.01.12.34.10.9−1.51.01.90.4−1.31.0−2.70.60.8
    Germany2.71.32.31.70.30.62.42.81.8−0.8−0.72.3−1.61.31.5
    France2.02.31.81.70.64.13.74.31.61.32.7−0.10.52.72.6
    Italy2.12.01.72.00.92.73.13.02.11.60.92.10.31.92.5
    United Kingdom2.63.23.72.03.13.95.03.74.02.32.42.41.82.62.2
    Canada2.63.02.31.20.95.72.44.45.01.33.23.70.15.53.0
    Other advanced economies4.03.44.74.63.83.61.15.14.50.82.73.3
    Memorandum
    European Union2.52.42.42.21.42.34.03.43.21.21.02.4
    Euro area2.42.12.12.11.01.83.63.42.90.90.52.5−0.11.92.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.34.08.57.86.93.9−9.27.67.3−0.94.74.8

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Based on revised national accounts for 1988 onward.

    Table 3.Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1984–931994–20031994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    Private consumer expenditure
    Advanced economies3.22.93.12.62.82.83.04.03.62.42.22.7
    Private consumer expenditure
    Advanced economies3.22.93.12.62.82.83.04.13.52.32.22.3
    Major advanced economies3.12.72.82.32.52.63.33.83.22.22.02.1
    United States3.23.53.83.03.23.64.84.94.32.52.92.3
    Japan3.51.22.51.52.30.9−0.11.20.61.41.01.0
    Germany3.01.51.12.11.00.61.83.71.41.5−0.32.3
    France1.82.10.91.31.30.13.63.52.82.81.92.3
    Italy2.52.01.51.71.23.23.22.42.71.10.32.3
    United Kingdom3.13.63.31.93.83.83.84.55.24.13.52.4
    Canada2.83.23.02.12.64.62.83.93.72.62.83.6
    Other advanced economies3.83.54.13.84.03.61.65.04.42.32.93.1
    Memorandum
    European Union2.62.41.81.82.02.13.33.73.02.21.42.4
    Euro area2.52.01.31.91.61.63.13.52.51.80.82.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.14.88.06.96.75.1−4.87.76.92.84.84.5
    Public consumption
    Advanced economies2.52.00.91.11.71.41.72.62.72.73.02.1
    Major advanced economies2.21.90.90.81.21.21.52.72.83.03.12.2
    United States2.22.10.20.51.81.42.92.83.74.43.3
    Japan2.92.83.04.22.91.02.14.44.52.92.01.3
    Germany1.71.22.41.51.80.31.91.01.20.80.90.5
    France2.71.60.52.22.11.52.92.42.81.9
    Italy2.10.7−0.8−2.11.10.30.31.41.72.32.10.6
    United Kingdom0.91.71.01.71.20.11.53.12.12.22.91.7
    Canada2.31.0−1.2−0.6−1.2−1.03.21.92.33.31.61.6
    Other advanced economies3.72.21.32.13.72.42.62.22.31.72.51.6
    Memorandum
    European Union2.11.61.00.81.51.01.62.12.22.02.01.3
    Euro area2.21.51.20.71.71.31.41.91.91.91.81.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.32.20.82.68.03.31.8−0.61.50.63.41.1
    Gross fixed capital formation
    Advanced economies3.73.54.54.05.85.65.55.25.1−1.8−1.43.1
    Major advanced economies3.53.44.23.25.95.56.25.54.8−1.8−2.22.8
    United States3.65.27.35.48.48.810.27.95.5−2.7−2.03.6
    Japan4.9−0.1−1.80.67.40.9−4.1−0.23.2−2.3−5.20.8
    Germany2.90.34.0−0.6−0.80.63.04.12.5−5.3−4.81.4
    France2.13.11.52.20.1−0.27.38.38.32.70.11.5
    Italy1.33.30.16.03.62.14.05.76.52.42.8
    United Kingdom3.23.54.73.14.76.912.80.61.9−0.4−1.93.3
    Canada2.65.17.5−2.14.415.22.47.86.51.73.64.9
    Other advanced economies4.74.26.27.25.46.12.84.05.9−1.71.94.3
    Memorandum
    European Union2.73.02.63.52.43.46.85.24.7−1.32.4
    Euro area2.62.42.32.41.32.45.25.94.8−0.6−1.62.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies10.03.410.310.47.24.4−9.010.0−6.44.05.3
    Final domestic demand
    Advanced economies3.22.82.92.63.23.13.14.03.71.41.62.4
    Major advanced economies3.02.72.62.23.02.93.53.93.51.51.32.2
    United States3.13.63.83.03.74.35.35.24.31.62.22.6
    Japan3.81.11.31.73.80.9−0.91.31.90.6−0.51.0
    Germany2.71.22.01.30.70.52.13.31.6−0.2−1.11.8
    France2.02.20.91.21.30.53.43.93.92.71.72.1
    Italy2.22.00.81.71.72.42.82.93.31.60.62.1
    United Kingdom2.63.23.02.13.53.64.93.54.03.02.52.4
    Canada2.63.12.80.72.15.42.84.34.02.52.73.5
    Other advanced economies3.93.44.14.34.23.91.74.24.51.22.63.2
    Memorandum
    European Union2.52.31.81.92.02.23.63.73.21.70.92.2
    Euro area2.52.01.51.71.61.73.23.72.91.30.52.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.34.17.87.67.24.5−5.74.17.14.34.4
    Stock building1
    Advanced economies0.50.1−0.20.2−0.1−0.80.20.1
    Major advanced economies0.50.1−0.20.30.1−0.2−0.90.20.2
    United States0.10.6−0.40.40.2−0.20.1−1.20.50.1
    Japan−0.1−0.20.60.3−0.1−0.6−0.4−0.2−0.70.1
    Germany0.10.30.3−0.50.3−0.40.2−0.60.40.5
    France−0.10.10.90.6−0.60.10.7−0.30.4−1.0−0.40.6
    Italy0.80.2−0.70.30.30.1−1.10.4
    United Kingdom0.7−0.40.30.10.2−0.7−0.1−0.1
    Canada0.20.20.61.1−0.70.7−0.30.10.5−1.51.30.3
    Other advanced economies0.10.60.3−0.4−0.2−0.60.7−0.40.1
    Memorandum
    European Union0.60.3−0.50.10.3−0.2−0.50.3
    Euro area0.10.60.3−0.50.10.4−0.2−0.4−0.10.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies−0.10.70.3−0.3−0.6−3.32.70.1−0.90.20.3
    Foreign balance1
    Advanced economies−0.1−0.10.10.2−0.4−0.50.10.1−0.1−0.1
    Major advanced economies−0.2−0.10.2−0.10.1−0.8−0.7−0.2−0.1−0.2
    United States−0.5−0.40.1−0.2−0.3−1.2−1.0−0.8−0.2−0.6−0.4
    Japan0.1−0.2−0.5−0.41.00.3−0.10.5−0.70.70.1
    Germany0.40.10.10.50.8−0.4−0.71.01.41.1−0.2
    France.—.0.10.10.10.41.2−0.5−0.4−0.10.2−0.3
    Italy0.61.00.2−0.6−1.2−1.30.80.2−0.30.2
    United Kingdom−0.3−0.50.80.9−0.4−0.5−2.2−1.4−1.1−0.6−0.8−0.1
    Canada−0.10.41.41.00.3−1.71.71.10.20.60.1−0.3
    Other advanced economies−0.10.5−0.1−0.10.10.81.20.31.20.80.10.3
    Memorandum
    European Union−0.10.40.40.20.3−0.9−0.60.3040.1−0.1
    Euro area0.20.30.20.40.6−0.6−0.60.60.60.4−0.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies0.11.5−0.80.1−0.31.96.51.62.61.80.71.0

    Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

    Table 4.Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real Per Capita GDP(Percent)
    Ten-Year Averages1
    1984–931994–20031994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    Unemployment rate
    Advanced economies6.96.67.47.17.16.96.86.45.95.96.46.5
    Major advanced economies6.76.57.06.76.86.66.36.15.76.06.66.7
    United States26.55.26.15.65.44.94.54.24.04.85.96.3
    Japan2.54.22.93.23.43.44.14.74.75.05.55.6
    Germany6.58.48.28.08.79.69.18.47.87.88.38.3
    France10.010.612.111.412.112.111.510.89.58.69.08.9
    Italy10.810.811.111.611.611.711.811.410.69.59.38.9
    United Kingdom9.26.79.78.78.27.16.36.05.55.15.25.3
    Canada9.78.310.39.49.69.18.37.66.87.27.66.7
    Other advanced economies7.37.28.78.28.17.88.17.36.25.75.85.7
    Spain19.416.824.222.922.220.818.715.713.910.510.79.9
    Netherlands7.44.57.67.16.65.54.23.22.62.02.93.2
    Belgium8.58.49.89.79.59.29.38.66.96.66.97.1
    Sweden3.16.18.07.78.18.06.55.64.74.04.24.2
    Austria3.34.03.83.94.34.44.53.93.73.64.33.8
    Denmark9.57.011.910.18.67.86.55.65.25.05.15.1
    Finland6.511.816.615.414.612.611.410.29.89.19.49.3
    Greece7.910.59.610.010.39.811.112.011.210.410.210.3
    Portugal6.55.56.87.27.36.75.04.44.04.14.75.1
    Ireland15.67.714.112.111.59.87.45.64.33.94.54.7
    Luxembourg1.62.92.73.03.33.33.12.92.62.62.92.8
    Switzerland1.33.54.74.24.75.23.92.72.01.92.72.7
    Norway4.14.05.55.04.94.13.23.23.43.63.63.6
    Israel8.28.67.86.86.67.68.58.98.89.310.710.9
    Iceland1.63.14.85.04.43.92.81.91.31.72.32.6
    Cyprus2.83.42.72.63.13.43.43.63.43.63.84.0
    Korea3.03.62.42.02.02.66.86.34.13.73.03.0
    Australia8.47.49.48.28.28.37.77.06.36.76.36.0
    Taiwan Province of China1.93.21.61.82.62.72.72.93.04.65.04.9
    Hong Kong SAR2.14.51.93.22.82.24.76.24.95.07.57.1
    Singapore3.22.82.62.72.01.83.23.53.13.33.02.3
    New Zealand6.96.48.26.36.16.77.56.86.05.35.45.6
    Memorandum
    European Union9.59.311.110.610.810.69.99.18.27.47.77.6
    Euro area9.69.911.311.111.311.310.79.88.88.08.48.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.63.52.22.12.22.65.45.23.84.04.03.8
    Growth in employment
    Advanced economies1.51.11.11.21.21.51.11.41.60.50.21.0
    Major advanced economies1.60.81.00.80.81.41.01.11.20.3−0.10.8
    United States1.81.32.31.51.52.31.51.51.3−0.1−0.21.1
    Japan1.2−0.10.10.10.41.1−0.6−0.8−0.2−0.5−0.90.2
    Germany3.60.4−0.20.1−0.3−0.21.11.21.80.4−0.40.2
    France0.21.10.10.50.40.31.51.92.42.11.00.8
    Italy−0.10.6−1.6−0.60.50.41.11.31.92.10.70.9
    United Kingdom0.61.01.01.41.12.01.21.51.30.4−0.30.2
    Canada1.62.22.01.90.82.32.72.82.61.12.13.9
    Other advanced economies1.41.81.32.22.31.61.22.32.91.51.11.3
    Memorandum
    European Union1.21.1−0.10.71.10.92.01.92.11.40.30.7
    Euro area1.20.9−0.40.50.50.81.71.72.01.40.40.8
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.61.52.82.52.11.6−2.71.53.21.01.51.6
    Growth in real per capita GDP
    Advanced economies2.52.22.72.12.42.82.12.93.30.31.22.1
    Major advanced economies2.42.01.91.72.12.62.22.52.90.11.01.8
    United States2.42.03.01.72.63.43.33.20.9−1.31.21.5
    Japan3.20.80.71.43.21.6−1.40.62.2−0.5−1.70.1
    Germany2.21.52.01.40.51.22.02.02.70.40.52.0
    France1.51.91.51.50.71.53.22.83.71.30.81.9
    Italy2.11.81.92.71.01.81.81.62.91.60.52.1
    United Kingdom2.12.44.32.52.33.12.52.02.71.61.32.0
    Canada1.32.43.61.70.53.13.24.53.60.52.20.6
    Other advanced economies3.13.23.93.63.23.71.64.54.81.22.22.9
    Memorandum
    European Union2.12.22.42.11.42.42.82.63.31.51.02.2
    Euro area2.12.02.02.01.22.12.72.63.21.00.72.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.84.16.66.35.24.6−3.56.97.5−0.13.84.1

    Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

    The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the new survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

    Table 5.Developing Countries: Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1984–931994–20031994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    Developing countries5.15.26.76.26.55.93.54.05.73.94.25.2
    Regional groups
    Africa2.03.42.33.05.63.13.42.83.03.53.14.2
    Sub-Sahara1.93.41.83.85.13.72.72.93.23.33.04.2
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa1.83.91.54.55.34.53.93.62.94.04.44.9
    Developing Asia7.66.89.79.08.36.64.06.16.75.66.16.3
    China10.58.612.610.59.68.87.87.18.07.37.57.2
    India5.25.96.87.67.55.05.86.75.44.15.05.7
    Other developing Asia5.54.07.07.66.73.8−5.13.75.13.03.94.5
    Middle East and Turkey3.53.60.54.44.76.23.61.26.11.53.64.7
    Western Hemisphere2.92.55.01.83.65.22.30.24.00.6−0.63.0
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel2.63.20.43.33.45.42.81.55.24.12.24.3
    Nonfuel5.45.47.46.56.85.93.64.25.63.94.45.3
    of which. primary products3.14.35.36.55.65.53.02.63.62.83.24.7
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries5.25.36.96.36.75.93.54.15.73.94.35.3
    of which. official financing2.44.22.55.35.34.33.94.03.94.33.84.8
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–983.03.74.75.25.04.6−0.62.34.63.33.44.3
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries2.24.62.95.85.85.34.04.33.94.24.75.3
    Middle East and north Africa2.84.02.62.94.64.94.23.25.24.33.54.5
    Memorandum
    Real per capita GDP
    Developing countries3.13.55.04.44.84.21.92.44.12.32.63.7
    Regional groups
    Africa−0.80.9−0.30.43.00.50.90.30.61.10.71.8
    Developing Asia5.85.48.17.56.85.12.64.85.44.34.85.0
    Middle East and Turkey0.61.5−1.62.32.54.01.4−0.94.0−0.51.62.7
    Western Hemisphere1.00.93.30.11.93.60.7−1.42.4−0.9−2.11.5
    Table 6.Developing Countries—by Country: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average

    1984–93
    1994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    Africa2.02.33.05.63.13.42.83.03.53.14.2
    Algeria1.2−0.93.83.81.15.13.22.52.82.12.9
    Angola−1.11.310.411.27.96.83.33.03.217.14.8
    Benin2.14.44.65.55.74.64.75.85.05.36.0
    Botswana8.63.54.55.76.75.96.38.64.92.63.7
    Burkina Faso4.31.44.57.54.86.46.32.25.75.75.4
    Burundi2.9−3.7−7.3−8.40.44.8−1.0−0.12.43.45.0
    Cameroon−0.7−2.53.35.05.15.04.44.25.34.44.7
    Cape Verde4.36.97.56.77.67.48.66.82.93.03.5
    Central African Republic2.05.65.2−7.57.73.93.61.81.04.54.3
    Chad4.65.50.43.14.27.72.31.08.511.29.2
    Comoros1.2−5.48.9−1.34.21.21.9−1.11.93.53.0
    Congo. Dem. Rep. of−2.9−3.90.7−1.0−5.6−1.6−4.3−6.2−4.43.05.5
    Congo. Rep. of5.5−5.54.04.3−0.63.7−3.08.22.93.9−1.0
    Côte d’Ivoire0.82.07.17.75.74.81.6−2.30.13.04.5
    Djibouti−0.7−0.9−3.5−5.0−0.70.12.20.71.92.63.5
    Equatorial Guinea2.55.114.329.171.222.041.416.145.530.416.4
    Eritrea23.42.59.28.03.10.6−12.19.78.87.1
    Ethiopia0.61.66.210.64.7−1.46.05.47.75.06.0
    Gabon2.13.75.03.65.73.5−8.9−1.92.41.0−0.5
    Gambia, The2.53.8−3.46.14.93.56.45.65.56.06.0
    Ghana4.63.34.04.64.24.74.43.74.24.55.0
    Guinea3.84.04.75.15.04.84.62.13.64.24.9
    Guinea-Bissau3.23.24.44.65.5−28.18.09.50.23.94.4
    Kenya3.32.74.44.22.11.61.3−0.11.21.42.8
    Lesotho5.3−0.412.69.54.8−3.02.43.54.04.04.3
    Liberia
    Madagascar1.3172.13 J3.94.74.86.7−10.6−16.0
    Malawi3.2−10.316.77.33.83.34.01.7−1.51.84.5
    Mali2.42.67.04.36.74.96.73.71.59.35.3
    Mauritania4.84.64.65.53.23.74.15.04.65.15.5
    Mauritius6.84.43.55.26.06.05.32.67.25.34.9
    Morocco3.410.4−6.612.2−2.27.7−0.11.06.54.44.1
    Mozambique. Rep. of2.67.54.37.111.112.67.51.613.99.05.6
    Namibia2.66.84.23.04.23.43.63.42.53.13.8
    Niger−0.14.02.63.42.810.4−0.6−1.47.62.73.9
    Nigeria4.6−0.62.66.42.91.81.04.32.8−2.33.7
    Rwanda1.0−50.235.212.713.88.97.66.06.76.56.2
    São Tomé and Príncipe2.22.01.51.02.52.53.04.05.05.0
    Senegal1.22.95.25.15.05.75.15.65.65.05.1
    Seychelles6.0−2.40.510.012.25.7−2.8−5.4−8.1−2.4−0.6
    Sierra Leone−1.33.5−10.0−24.8−17.6−0.8−8.13.85.46.67.0
    Somalia
    South Africa1.13.23.14.32.60.82.13.42.22.53.0
    Sudan2.52.03.04.910.06.07.79.75.35.26.3
    Swaziland6.83.43.83.93.83.23.52.21.61.82.3
    Tanzania3.71.63.64.53.53.73.55.15.65.86.0
    Togo17.56.99.74.3−2.12.9−1.92.73.04.0
    Tunisia4.03.22.47.15.44.86.14.75.03.86.4
    Uganda3.86.411.98.65.14.77.65.05.65.76.5
    Zambia0.9−13.3−2.56.53.4−1.92.23.64.93.74.0
    Zimbabwe2.85.80.210.42.72.9−0.7−5.1−8.5−10.6−2.8
    Developing Asia7.69.79.08.36.64.06.16.75.66.16.3
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh4.44.54.85.05.35.05.45.64.74.04.0
    Bhutan6.46.47.46.17.35.55.96.15.96.05.7
    Brunei Darussalam1.83.11.12.6−4.02.62.8−0.43.02.9
    Cambodia7.75.94.64.32.16.97.76.34.56.0
    China10.512.610.59.68.87.87.18.07.37.57.2
    Fiji3.15.12.53.1−0.91.49.7−2.82.63.75.2
    India5.26.87.67.55.05.86.75.44.15.05.7
    Indonesia6.77.58.28.04.5−13.10.84.83.33.54.5
    Kiribati0.47.95.94.11.66.62.1−1.71.52.72.5
    Lao P.D. Republic5.08.27.06.96.94.07.35.85.25.56.0
    Malaysia6.99.29.810.07.3−7.46.18.30.53.55.3
    Maldives10.26.67.28.811.27.98.55.64.91.27.0
    Myanmar1.16.87.26.45.75.810.95.54.84.24.8
    Nepal5.38.63.35.35.32.94.56.24.80.83.8
    Pakistan5.54.44.92.91.83.14.14.33.64.65.0
    Papua Mew Guinea4.95.9−3.37.7−3.9−3.87.6−0.8−3.41.22.8
    Philippines1.04.44.75.85.2−0.63.44.43.24.03.8
    Samoa1.86.56.47.30.82.42.66.96.54.54.0
    Solomon Islands3.59.210.53.5−2.31.1−1.3−14.0−3.0−0.51.5
    Sri Lanka4.35.65.53.86.44.74.36.0−1.43.75.5
    Thailand8.79.09.25.9−1.4−10.54.44.61.83.53.5
    Tonga2.05.03.2−0.2−0.11.63.16.23.02.93.3
    Vanuatu3.01.32.30.40.66.0−2.53.7−0.52.03.0
    Vietnam6.08.89.59.38.23.54.25.55.05.36.5
    Middle East and Turkey3.50.54.44.76.23.61.26.11.53.64.7
    Bahrain4.1−0.23.94.13.14.84.35.34.84.14.1
    Egypt3.93.94.75.05.35.76.05.13.32.03.7
    Iran, islamic Republic of1.72.33.35.75.01.83.65.74.85.85.5
    Iraq
    Jordan3.25.06.22.13.33.03.14.04.25.16.0
    Kuwait1.5−7.120.1−2.71.23.2−1.73.8−1.0−1.01.7
    Lebanon0.88.06.54.04.03.01.0−0.52.01.51.0
    Libya−0.5−1.3−0.33.35.2−3.60.74.40.6−0.62.5
    Malta4.95.76.24.04.93.44.15.2−1.02.04.9
    Oman6.33.84.82.96.22.7−0.25.17.33.33.8
    Qatar0.72.32.94.825.46.25.311.67.23.04.0
    Saudi Arabia2.70.50.51.42.62.8−0.84.91.20.73.3
    Syrian Arab Republic3.17.75.84.41.87.6−2.02.52.83.93.4
    Turkey5.4−5.06.96.97.63.1−4.77.4−7.43.95.0
    United Arab Emirates2.08.57.96.26.74.33.95.05.10.33.1
    Yemen, Republic of2.210.95.98.14.93.75.13.34.13.7
    Western Hemisphere2.95.01.83.65.22.30.24.00.6−0.63.0
    Antigua and Barbuda6.46.2−5.06.15.63.93.22.5−0.6−3.71.0
    Argentina2.05.8−2.85.58.13.8−3.4−0.8−4.4−16.01.0
    Bahamas, The1.50.90.34.23.33.05.95.0−0.52.9
    Barbados0.74.03.11.76.44.11.33.1−2.1−413.6
    Belize6.71.83.31.53.72.63.79.72.53.0
    Bolivia2.14.74.74.45.05.20.42.41.21.52.5
    Brazil2.85.94.22.73.30.20.84.41.51.53.0
    Chile7.05.710.87.46.63.2−1.04.42.82.24.2
    Colombia4.15.85.22.13.40.6−4.22.71.41.22.0
    Costa Rica4.84.73.90.95.68.49.42.20.92.42.0
    Dominica4.12.11.63.12.02.40.90.51.01.01.0
    Dominican Republic2.54.34.77.28.37.38.07.22.83.55.3
    Ecuador2.94.42.32.03.40.4−7.32.35.63.53.5
    El Salvador3.36.06.41.84.33.83.42.21.83.03.0
    Grenada3.23.33.13.14.07.37.56.43.5−1.85.0
    Guatemala2.74.04.93.04.15.13.83.61.82.33.5
    Guyana1.78.55.07.96.2−1.73.0−1.31.41.82.7
    Haiti−1.0−11.99.94.12.72.22.70.9−1.72.5
    Honduras3.9−1.34.13.65.02.9−1.94.92.62.54.0
    Jamaica2.41.00.2−1.5−1.5−0.4−0.11.13.02.53.0
    Mexico2.44.4−6.25.26.85.03.66.6−0.31.54.0
    Netherlands Antilles1.26.01.12.10.9−0.7−1.5−1.9−0.60.71.5
    Nicaragua−2.23.34.24.75.14.17.45.83.01.53.5
    Panama2.72.91.82.44.44.03.22.50.31.22.8
    Paraguay3.53.14.71.32.6−0.40.5−0.40.82.63.6
    Peru0.712.88.62.56.7−0.51.03.10.23.53.0
    St. Kitts and Nevis5.85.13.55.97.31.03.77.51.8−2.54.5
    St. Lucia6.82.14.11.40.63.13.50.70.5−4.02.0
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines5.7−2.06.81.43.96.04.11.81.71.02.0
    Suriname−2.5−4.17.212.37.04.1−4.8−5.71.31.23.0
    Trinidad and Tobago−2.23.64.03.83.14.86.84.84.55.25.5
    Uruguay3.47.3−1.45.65.04.8−2.8−1.4−3.1−11.1−4.5
    Venezuela3.0−2.34.0−0.26.40.2−6.13.22.6−6.22.2

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    Table 7.Countries in Transition: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average

    1984–93
    1994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    Central and eastern Europe3.25.24.12.62.42.23.83.02.73.8
    Albania−2.89.4−0.919.8−7.08.07.37.86.56.07.0
    Bosnia and Herzegovina32.485.839.910.010.04.52.32.34.1
    Bulgaria−2.4−3.5−1.8−8.0−5.64.02.35.44.04.05.0
    Croatia5.96.86.06.62.5−0.43.74.13.54.0
    Czech Republic2.25.94.3−0.8−1.00.53.33.32.73.2
    Estonia−2.04.33.99.84.6−0.67.15.04.55.0
    Hungary−1.12.91.51.34.64.94.25.23.83.54.0
    Latvia0.6−0.83.38.63.91.16.87.65.06.0
    Lithuania−9.83.34.77.35.1−3.93.85.94.44.8
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of−1.8−1.11.21.43.44.34.5−4.12.54.0
    Poland0.85.26.86.06.84.84.14.01.01.03.0
    Romania−2.23.97.33.9−6.1−4.8−1.21.85.34.34.9
    Slovak Republic5.26.55.85.64.01.32.23.34.03.7
    Slovenia5.34.13.54.63.85.24.63.02.53.2
    Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia−14.5−5.5−3.31.1−2.84.68.46.34.64.9
    Russia−13.5−4.2−3.40.9−4.95.49.05.04.44.9
    Excluding Russia−16.6−8.6−3.11.51.62.86.98.95.24.9
    Armenia5.46.95.93.37.33.36.09.67.56.0
    Azerbaijan−19.7−11.81.35.810.07.411.19.07.97.3
    Belarus−9.0−10.42.811.48.33.45.84.13.53.8
    Georgia−10.42.610.510.62.93.01.94.53.54.0
    Kazakhstan−12.6−8.30.51.6−1.92.79.813.28.07.0
    Kyrgyz Republic−19.8−5.47.09.92.13.75.45.34.43.8
    Moldova−30.9−1.4−5.91.6−6.5−3.42.16.14.85.0
    Mongolia0.82.36.32.44.03.53.21.11.13.95.0
    Tajikistan−21.4−12.5−4.41.75.33.78.310.27.06.0
    Turkmenistan−17.3−7.2−6.7−11.37.016.518.020.5
    Ukraine−22.9−12.2−10.0−3.0−1.9−0.25.99.14.85.0
    Uzbekistan−4.2−0.91.62.54.34.33.84.52.73.0
    Memorandum
    EU accession candidates0.85.84.84.12.60.24.93.04.1

    Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

    Table 8.Summary of Inflation(Percent)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1984–931994–20031994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies4.11.62.22.31.91.71.30.91.31.81.21.5
    United States3.21.82.12.21.91.91.21.42.12.41.21.9
    European Union5.02.22.73.12.61.92.01.51.62.32.31.9
    Japan1.7−0.80.2−0.5−0.80.3−0.1−1.4−2.0−1.2−1.4−1.2
    Other advanced economies7.11.93.33.42.92.21.51.71.40.91.8
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies4.22.02.62.62.42.11.51.42.32.21.41.7
    United States3.82.42.62.82.92.31.52.23.42.81.52.3
    European Union4.52.23.02.92.51.81.51.42.32.62.11.8
    Japan1.7−0.10.7−0.11.70.6−0.3−0.8−0.7−1.0−0.6
    Other advanced economies7.12.53.33.83.22.42.61.02.22.41.82.2
    Developing countries48.513.755.423.215.410.010.56.95.15.75.56.0
    Regional groups
    Africa24.319.754.735.330.214.610.912.314.313.19.69.5
    Developing Asia10.26.116.013.28.34.87.72.51.92.62.13.2
    Middle East and Turkey24.225.037.839.129.628.327.623.619.617.217.113.3
    Western Hemisphere184.324.7200.436.021.212.99.88.98.16.48.69.3
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel16.921.736.242.635.120.117.517.113.811.913.813.0
    Nonfuel53.612.957.821.313.59.09.85.95.35.14.85.3
    of which, primary products75.519.563.029.827.016.114.012.613.412.27.58.9
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries50.614.157.523.815.810.210.87.16.36.05.76.1
    of which, official financing38.816.864.230.222.711.410.711.210.48.84.84.3
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–98125.128.3221.640.121.112.218.413.811.411.49.57.8
    Countries in transition72.847.0274.2133.042.527.422.144.120.215.911.30.8
    Central and eastern Europe19.045.624.723.341.817.211.012.89.66.15.6
    Commonwealth of Independent
    States and Mongolia65.5508.1235.755.919.125.570.525.019.814.510.7
    Russia57.1307.5198.047.914.727.885.720.820.715.811.0
    Excluding Russia85.41,334.5338.975.529.720.841.734.717.911.910.1
    Memorandum
    Median inflation rate
    Advanced economies4.22.22.42.52.21.81.71.52.72.62.22.1
    Developing countries9.56.010.810.07.36.25.83.94.04.44.04.0
    Countries in transition123.825.8131.641.524.114.89.98.010.07.45.45.0
    Table 9.Advanced Economies: GDP Deflators and Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1984–931994–20031994199519961997199819992000200120022003200120022003
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies4.11.62.22.31.91.71.30.91.31.81.21.5
    Major advanced economies3.41.41.81.91.61.51.10.91.21.51.01.31.51.01.7
    United States3.21.82.12.21.91.91.21.42.12.41.21.91.91.42.1
    Japan1.7−0.80.2−0.5−0.80.3−0.1−1.4−2.0−1.2−1.4−1.2−0.6−2.2−0.3
    Germany2.91.22.52.01.00.71.10.5−0.31.41.71.52.41.01.9
    France3.71.31.81.71.41.30.90.50.51.41.81.21.71.81.2
    Italy7.23.03.55.05.32.42.71.72.12.62.41.93.32.31.8
    United Kingdom5.32.41.42.63.32.92.92.52.22.02.62.12.21.43.1
    Canada3.21.61.12.31.61.2−0.41.73.91.01.12.4−1.23.81.9
    Other advanced economies7.32.53.83.92.92.52.30.82.02.61.91.9
    Spain7.43.43.94.93.52.32.42.73.54.23.52.64.13.12.6
    Netherlands1.42.62.31.81.22.01.71.54.15.33.42.54.03.32.1
    Belgium3.51.52.11.21.21.31.61.21.42.31.81.0
    Sweden5.71.82.43.51.41.70.90.71.02.01.82.22.81.81.8
    Austria3.11.42.72.51.30.90.50.71.21.81.01.6
    Denmark3.82.21.71.82.52.21.02.73.72.72.41.92.02.01.9
    Finland4.71.92.04.1−0.22.13.0−0.23.22.21.91.4
    Greece16.95.811.211.27.46.85.23.03.43.23.63.2
    Portugal14.04.26.17.43.83.14.33.42.84.43.82.9
    Ireland3.83.71.73.02.24.15.94.24.35.43.53.1
    Luxembourg2.62.64.94.31.92.82.62.23.50.22.01.9
    Switzerland3.30.81.61.20.3−0.20.61.11.70.81.02.00.61.2
    Norway3.62.9−0.12.64.02.9−0.76.716.01.7−3.10.6
    Israel55.66.711.99.810.99.06.96.41.32.16.23.02.011.30.2
    Iceland17.33.81.72.82.03.34.23.43.09.05.53.2
    Cyprus5.02.95.13.61.92.52.32.34.02.82.52.2
    Korea7.02.87.77.13.93.15.1−2.0−1.11.31.42.0
    Australia4.81.90.92.02.11.60.40.64.33.32.32.02.22.52.3
    Taiwan Province of China2.41.02.02.03.11.72.6−1.4−1.70.7−0.41.40.5−0.32.0
    Hong Kong SAR8.60.57.02.55.75.80.5−5.5−6.3−0.9−2.4−0.50.6−4.22.6
    Singapore2.10.32.92.21.20.8−1.8−4.83.5−2.01.0−5.30.90.1
    New Zealand6.71.61.42.11.91.00.92.33.90.91.13.6−0.23.3
    Memorandum
    European Union5.02.22.73.12.61.92.01.51.62.32.31.9
    Euro area4.82.02.82.92.21.61.71.21.32.32.21.82.82.01.8
    Newly industrialized Asian economies5.61.85.54.73.72.93.2−2.5−1.60.60.31.5
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies4.22.02.62.62.42.11.51.42.32.21.41.7
    Major advanced economies3.61.92.22.22.22.01.31.42.32.11.21.61.41.51.8
    United States3.82.42.62.82.92.31.52.23.42.81.52.31.92.12.5
    Japan1.7−0.10.7−0.11.70.6−0.3−0.8−0.7−1.0−0.6−1.0−0.7−0.4
    Germany22.41.52.71.71.21.50.60.72.12.41.41.11.71.51.2
    France23.61.51.71.82.11.30.70.61.81.81.81.41.51.51.9
    Italy26.42.84.15.24.11.92.01.72.62.72.41.82.32.41.8
    United Kingdom35.02.42.42.83.02.82.72.32.12.11.92.12.01.52.6
    Canada3.91.70.21.91.61.61.01.82.72.51.82.11.12.72.0
    Other advanced economies6.72.74.13.83.22.32.41.32.42.92.32.2
    Memorandum
    European Union24.52.23.02.92.51.81.51.42.32.62.11.8
    Euro area24.22.13.02.72.31.61.21.12.42.62.11.62.22.11.6
    Newly industrialized Asian economies4.22.95.74.64.33.44.41.11.91.12.2

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

    Retail price index excluding mortgage interest.

    Table 10.Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1984–931994–20031994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    Hourly earnings
    Advanced economies5.83.23.33.33.12.63.23.04.52.53.23.3
    Major advanced economies4.92.82.72.82.42.23.22.74.52.13.03.0
    United States4.13.42.82.11.41.95.44.07.41.64.03.8
    Japan3.91.02.12.31.83.10.8−0.8−0.20.9−0.1−0.2
    Germany5.43.02.34.54.51.82.02.72.83.43.03.0
    France5.11.91.72.42.3−1.50.81.42.33.12.83.4
    Italy8.52.93.14.75.84.2−1.42.52.72.72.42.6
    United Kingdom8.04.35.04.44.34.24.54.04.64.33.24.1
    Canada4.52.01.62.21.02.20.81.61.33.53.03.0
    Other advanced economies9.94.65.85.26.04.53.14.54.54.14.24.4
    Memorandum
    European Union6.93.33.34.24.32.72.22.93.33.63.23.4
    Euro area7.63.33.14.34.32.41.82.83.03.83.53.5
    Newly industrialized Asian economies13.46.511.47.910.25.60.87.26.74.25.46.2
    Productivity
    Advanced economies3.13.34.83.83.24.42.34.34.80.62.42.4
    Major advanced economies3.03.24.43.83.14.32.44.14.90.52.52.4
    United States2.93.73.03.93.54.24.95.14.00.94.42.9
    Japan2.51.93.14.53.84.7−4.23.46.6−4.50.51.5
    Germany3.75.28.94.95.87.74.73.06.64.13.23.0
    France3.13.76.86.01.05.65.52.96.70.60.22.1
    Italy2.82.46.03.63.72.3−1.72.24.03.2−0.51.4
    United Kingdom4.41.84.5−0.5−0.60.90.93.85.52.0−0.52.0
    Canada2.51.34.81.4−2.43.4−0.42.62.1−2.02.02.0
    Other advanced economies3.33.66.64.03.44.61.85.34.41.21.72.6
    Memorandum
    European Union3.33.47.33.72.64.52.72.95.02.20.92.2
    Euro area4.44.07.94.93.75.63.53.05.12.61.52.5
    Newly industrialized Asian economies7.25.97.17.97.06.1−1.113.29.51.83.14.7
    Unit labor costs
    Advanced economies2.7−0.1−1.4−0.6−0.1−1.71.0−1.2−0.21.90.90.8
    Major advanced economies1.9−0.3−1.6−1.0−0.7−2.00.8−1.3−0.31.70.40.5
    United States1.2−0.2−0.2−1.7−2.1−2.20.4−1.13.20.6−0.30.9
    Japan1.4−0.9−0.9−2.1−1.9−1.65.3−4.0−6.35.6−0.5−1.6
    Germany1.7−2.1−6.1−0.4−1.2−5.5−2.6−0.3−3.5−0.7−0.2
    France1.9−1.8−4.8−3.41.2−6.7−4.5−1.5−4.12.52.61.3
    Italy5.60.5−2.71.02.01.90.30.3−1.2−0.52.91.2
    United Kingdom3.42.50.54.95.03.33.60.3−0.92.33.72.0
    Canada1.90.7−3.00.93.4−1.21.1−0.9−0.75.51.00.9
    Other advanced economies6.11.0−0.80.92.2−0.21.4−0.50.12.82.51.7
    Memorandum
    European Union3.4−3.60.61.7−1.7−0.5−1.61.42.31.2
    Euro area3.1−0.7−4.4−0.60.6−3.0−1.6−0.2−2.01.21.91.0
    Newly industrialized Asian economies4.90.32.6−1.01.9−0.72.3−4.5−2.62.12.01.3
    Table 11.Developing Countries: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1984–931994–20031994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    Developing countries48.513.755.423.215.410.010.56.96.15.75.66.0
    Regional groups
    Africa24.319.754.735.330.214.610.912.314.313.19.69.5
    Sub-Sahara28.824.068.540.936.617.913.015.618.416.411.611.6
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa38.735.2121.657.558.825.517.223.528.722.212.714.4
    Developing Asia10.26.116.013.28.34.37.72.51.92.62.13.2
    China8.94.924.117.18.32.8−0.8−1.40.40.7−0.41.5
    India8.87.110.210.29.07.213.24.74.03.84.55.1
    Other developing Asia12.98.28.19.17.76.822.09.13.35.96.05.6
    Middle East and Turkey24.225.037.839.129.628.327.623.619.617.217.113.3
    Western Hemisphere184.324.7200.436.021.212.99.88.98.16.48.69.3
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel16.921.736.242.635.120.117.517.113.811.913.813.0
    Nonfuel53.612.957.821.313.59.09.85.95.35.14.85.3
    of which, primary products75.519.563.029.827.016.114.012.613.412.27.58.9
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries50.614.157.523.815.810.210.87.16.36.05.76.1
    of which, official financing38.816.864.230.222.711.410.711.210.48.84.84.3
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–98125.128.3221.640.121.112.218.413.811.411.49.57.8
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries53.927.892.049.646.621.717.618.220.115.69.07.5
    Middle East and north Africa16.212.622.324.216.811.710.710.68.16.98.27.8
    Memorandum
    Median
    Developing countries9.56.010.810.07.36.25.83.94.04.44.04.0
    Regional groups
    Africa9.58.224.712.37.87.85.84.25.35.04.24.4
    Developing Asia8.25.98.47.97.66.48.44.43.63.94.34.2
    Middle East and Turkey6.83.77.06.46.83.43.02.21.51.42.53.1
    Western Hemisphere14.75.78.310.27.47.05.13.54.82.74.33.9
    Table 12.Developing Countries—by Country: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average

    1984–93
    1994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    Africa24.354.735.330.214.610.912.314.313.19.69.5
    Algeria13.629.029.818.75.75.02.60.34.24.03.0
    Angola62.0949.82,672.24,146.0221.5107.4248.2325.0152.6108.574.9
    Benin2.338.514.54.93.85.80.34.24.03.33.0
    Botswana12.612.310.510.39.47.66.97.97.25.54.7
    Burkina Faso24.77.86.12.35.0−1.1−0.34.92.02.0
    Burundi7.314.719.426.431.112.53.424.39.38.08.0
    Cameroon2.512.725.86.65.12.90.82.84.03.0
    Cape Verde7.63.38.46.08.64.44.4−2.43.72.92.5
    Central African Republic−0.324.519.23.71.6−1.9−1.43.23.81.52.7
    Chad0.541.35.411.35.64.3−8.43.712.44.04.0
    Comoros0.425.37.12.03.03.53.54.55.03.03.0
    Congo, Dem. Rep. of282.823,760.5541.8617.0199.0107.0270.0553.7357.927.79.1
    Congo, Rep. of−1.142.98.610.213.21.83.10.4−0.54.03.0
    Côte d’Ivoire3.526.014.12.74.24.50.72.54.43.03.0
    Djibouti5.76.54.92.62.52.22.02.41.81.52.0
    Equatorial Guinea8.038.911.46.03.03.06.56.012.09.05.0
    Eritrea13.112.010.33.79.58.419.914.68.96.3
    Ethiopia741.213.40.9−6.43.63.94.2−7.1−7.24.5
    Gabon1.236.110.04.54.12.3−0.70.42.12.02.0
    Gambia, The17.34.04.04.83.11.13.80.94.03.02.5
    Ghana25.724.959.546.627.914.612.425.232.914.610.8
    Guinea25.74.25.63.01.95.14.66.85.43.63.5
    Guinea-Bissau64.915.245.450.749.18.0−2.18.63.33.03.0
    Kenya16.728.81.68.911.96.75.810.05.82.04.7
    Lesotho14.07.210.09.18.57.88.66.16.910.33.4
    Liberia
    Madagascar12.939.049.019.84.56.29.911.95.015.05.0
    Malawi18.034.783.137.79.129.844.829.627.29.45.0
    Mali0.124.812.46.5−0.74.1−1.2−0.75.22.42.0
    Mauritania8.54.16.54.74.58.04.13.34.74.03.8
    Mauritius7.19.46.05.97.95.47.95.34.46.05.8
    Morocco6.35.16.13.01.02.70.71.90.62.12.1
    Mozambique, Rep. of49.663.154.444.66.40.62.912.79.016.76.8
    Namibia12.510.810.08.08.86.28.69.313.410.27.0
    Niger−1.124.821.95.32.94.5−2.32.94.02.72.0
    Nigeria25.357.072.829.38.510.06.66.918.915.913.2
    Rwanda6.147.348.213.411.76.8−2.43.93.42.44.5
    Sâo Tomé and Príncipe26.651.236.842.069.042.116.311.09.59.28.0
    Senegal2.232.08.12.81.71.10.80.73.03.52.0
    Seychelles2.21.8−0.3−1.10.62.73.5−0.1−0.16.06.0
    Sierra Leone75.524.226.023.114.636.034.1−0.92.25.05.0
    Somalia
    South Africa14.48.88.77.38.66.95.25.45.77.96.0
    Sudan67.3115.568.4132.846.717.116.08.05.05.55.0
    Swaziland13.013.812.36.47.97.55.99.97.510.97.0
    Tanzania29.337.126.521.016.19.89.06.25.24.43.9
    Togo1.048.56.42.55.5−1.44.5−2.56.84.84.3
    Tunisia6.94.56.34.63.73.12.73.01.93.43.0
    Uganda80.16.56.17.57.35.8−0.26.34.6−1.81.0
    Zambia82.654.634.943.124.424.526.826.121.720.09.8
    Zimbabwe18.222.222.621.518.831.758.555.976.7137.2522.2
    Developing Asia10.216.013.28.34.87.72.51.92.62.13.2
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh8.56.17.73.95.18.56.42.31.94.86.2
    Bhutan9.37.09.58.86.510.66.84.85.05.05.0
    Brunei Darussaiam2.46.02.01.7−0.41.21.11.41.6
    Cambodia9.41.37.18.014.84.0−0.80.21.83.0
    China8.924.117.18.32.8−0.8−1.40.40.7−0.41.5
    Fiji5.81.22.22.42.98.30.23.02.32.52.5
    India8.810.210.29.07.213.24.74.03.84.55.1
    Indonesia7.98.59.47.96.258.020.73.811.511.98.7
    Kiribati2.84.04.1−1.52.24.70.41.07.72.72.7
    Lao P.D. Republic21.47.719.119.119.590.1128.423.28.07.25.0
    Malaysia2.64.13.53.52.65.12.81.61.41.82.5
    Maldives7.63.45.56.27.6−1.43.0−1.13.75.74.3
    Myanmar19.522.428.920.033.949.111.410.315.015.015.0
    Nepal10.88.97.77.28.18.311.43.42.43.04.0
    Pakistan7.712.412.310.411.46.24.14.43.13.44.0
    Papua New Guinea5.32.917.311.63.913.614.915.610.27.54.7
    Philippines13.78.48.09.05.89.76.74.36.14.05.0
    Samoa1.712.1−2.95.46.92.20.31.04.05.03.0
    Solomon Islands12.013.39.611.88.112.48.36.07.09.38.1
    Sri Lanka11.58.47.715.99.69.44.76.214.28.86.6
    Thailand3.65.15.85.95.68.10.31.61.70.71.9
    Tonga9.42.4−0.52.72.03.03.95.37.03.53.1
    Vanuatu6.32.32.20.92.93.22.02.02.02.02.0
    Vietnam117.59.517.45.73.27.34.1−1.70.14.13.8
    Middle East and Turkey24.237.839.129.628.327.623.619.617.217.113.3
    Bahrain−0.20.43.1−0.14.6−0.4−1.3−0.7−1.2−1.0−1.3
    Egypt18.19.09.47.16.23.82.82.42.53.43.2
    Iran, Islamic Republic of18.935.249.423.217.318.120.112.611.415.015.0
    Iraq
    Jordan4.93.62.36.53.03.10.60.71.83.22.1
    Kuwait1.22.62.73.60.70.13.01.72.52.52.5
    Lebanon92.88.210.38.97.74.50.2−0.4−0.45.03.4
    Libya7.410.78.34.03.63.72.6−2.9−8.55.92.8
    Malta1.54.14.02.03.12.42.12.42.92.02.0
    Oman1.8−0.7−1.10.5−0.5−0.50.5−1.2−1.12.44.3
    Qatar2.61.43.07.12.72.92.21.7−0.71.52.6
    Saudi Arabia−0.40.65.00.9−0.4−0.2−1.3−0.6−0.81.1
    Syrian Arab Republic21.215.37.78.91.9−0.4−2.1−0.61.02.53.5
    Turkey56.1106.293.682.385.784.664.954.954.447.128.6
    United Arab Emirates4.05.74.43.02.92.02.11.40.91.92.5
    Yemen, Republic of71.362.540.04.611.58.010.911.915.89.0
    Western Hemisphere184.3200.436.021.212.99.88.98.16.48.69.3
    Antigua and Barbuda3.76.52.73.00.33.31.10.71.01.01.0
    Argentina346.54.23.40.20.50.9−1.2−0.9−1.129.048.0
    Bahamas, The5.01.32.11.40.51.31.31.62.01.91.2
    Barbados4.1−0.11.92.47.7−1.31.62.52.21.51.6
    Belize2.52.52.96.41.0−0.8−1.20.61.21.51.5
    Bolivia163.87.910.212.44.77.72.24.61.60.94.4
    Brazil614.22,075.866.015.86.93.24.97.06.86.54.3
    Chile19.711.48.27.46.15.13.33.83.62.12.8
    Colombia24.522.820.920.818.518.710.99.28.05.75.0
    Costa Rica17.113.523.217.613.311.710.011.011.311.011.3
    Dominica3.71.31.72.40.91.61.91.81.71.6
    Dominican Republic26.58.312.55.48.34.86.57.78.94.84.5
    Ecuador43.427.322.924.430.636.152.296.237.712.78.9
    El Salvador19.510.610.19.84.50.10.10.10.10.10.1
    Grenada2.92.62.22.81.31.40.52.22.51.51.5
    Guatemala16.212.58.411.09.26.64.95.18.75.03.9
    Guyana38.012.412.27.13.64.67.56.12.74.34.5
    Haiti11.037.430.221.916.212.78.111.516.711.611.0
    Honduras10.421.729.523.820.213.711.611.09.77.87.2
    Jamaica28.433.221.721.58.86.08.46.45.04.54.0
    Mexico49.97.035.034.420.615.916.69.56.44.83.7
    Netherlands Antilles2.41.92.83.43.11.20.83.10.71.42.4
    Nicaragua901.77.711.211.69.213.011.27.47.45.34.5
    Panama0.81.30.91.31.30.61.50.70.81.6
    Paraguay24.220.613.49.87.011.66.89.07.78.76.0
    Peru367.023.711.111.58.57.33.53.82.00.42.0
    St. Kitts and Nevis2.51.43.02.08.73.73.42.12.11.92.0
    St. Lucia3.02.75.91.20.32.83.53.62.52.3.3
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines3.31.01.74.40.52.11.00.20.80.12.4
    Suriname28.4368.5235.5−0.87.319.098.858.942.311.414.6
    Trinidad and Tobago9.33.75.33.33.65.63.45.62.53.83.5
    Uruguay73.945.042.628.619.89.65.74.84.424.249.9
    Venezuela30.860.859.999.950.035.823.616.212.522.725.2

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    Table 13.Countries in Transition: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average

    1984–93
    1994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    Central and eastern Europe45.624.723.241.817.211.012.89.66.15.6
    Albania23.422.67.812.732.120.90.43.15.33.0
    Bosnia and Herzegovina0.2−13.79.50.63.25.63.32.31.8
    Bulgaria35.396.062.1123.01,061.218.82.610.47.56.44.3
    Croatia97.52.03.53.65.74.16.24.93.53.5
    Czech Republic10.09.18.88.510.62.13.94.72.73.0
    Estonia47.729.023.111.28.23.34.05.83.73.0
    Hungary16.718.828.323.518.314.310.09.89.25.55.2
    Latvia35.825.117.68.44.62.42.62.53.03.0
    Lithuania72.139.524.78.85.10.81.01.31.12.5
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of126.415.82.32.6−0.1−0.75.85.33.53.0
    Poland73.632.227.919.914.911.87.310.15.52.12.3
    Romania52.7136.732.338.8154.859.145.845.734.524.219.1
    Slovak Republic13.49.95.86.16.710.712.07.34.27.1
    Slovenia21.513.59.98.48.06.18.98.47.75.5
    Commonwealth of Independent Stales and Mongolia508.1235.755.919.125.570.525.019.814.510.7
    Russia307.5198.047.914.727.885.720.820.715.811.0
    Excluding Russia1,334.5338.975.529.720.841.734.717.911.910.1
    Armenia5,273.4176.718.714.08.70.7−0.83.22.82.8
    Azerhaijan1,664.0411.819.83.7−0.8−8.51.81.52.43.3
    Belarus2,434.1709.352.763.973.2293.8168.961.343.122.5
    Georgia15,606.5162.739.37.03.619.14.04.75.95.0
    Kazakhstan1,879.9176.339.117.47.38.413.38.35.86.2
    Kyrgyz Republic190.143.532.023.510.535.918.77.04.14.5
    Moldova329.630.223.511.87.739.331.39.86.68.4
    Mongolia29.687.656.846.836.69.47.611.68.06.05.0
    Tajikistan350.4610.0418.288.043.227.532.938.610.77.6
    Turkmenistan1,748.31,005.2992.483.716.823.58.011.3
    Ukraine891.2376.480.215.914.522.728.212.05.19.1
    Uzbekistan1,568.3304.654.070.929.029.125.027.223.213.5
    Memorandum
    EU accession candidates59.142.739.455.435.625.324.721.216.811.9

    For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

    Table 14.Summary Financial Indicators(Percent)
    1994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    Advanced economies
    Central government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies−3.7−3.4−2.7−1.6−1.3−0.80.3−0.9−2.0−1.9
    United States−3.0−2.6−1.8−0.60.51.32.20.6−1.8−2.0
    Japan−3.5−4.1−4.4−4.0−5.8−6.7−6.5−6.4−6.1−5.3
    European Union−5.3−4.7−4.0−2.4−1.8−1.00.3−0.9−1.5−1.4
    Euro area−4.5−4.1−3.8−2.6−2.4−1.6−0.4−1.5−1.8−1.5
    Other advanced economies−1.5−1.0−0.20.6−0.11.70.30.10.5
    General government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies−4.3−4.1−3.4−1.9−1.5−1.00.1−1.4−2.5−2.3
    United States−3.8−3.3−2.4−1.3−0.10.61.5−0.2−2.6−2.8
    Japan−2.8−4.2−4.9−3.7−5.5−7.0−7.3−7.1−7.2−6.1
    European Union−5.6−5.3−4.3−2.4−1.7−0.70.9−1.0−1.5−1.2
    Euro area−5.1−5.0−4.2−2.6−2.3−1.30.1−1.6−1.9−1.5
    Other advanced economies−3.2−2.5−1.40.3−0.51.5−0.10.5
    General government structural balance2
    Advanced economies−3.8−3.6−2.9−1.6−1.2−0.9−0.7−1.1−1.8−1.5
    Growth of broad money3
    Advanced economies2.65.04.85.06.75.85.18.7
    United States0.63.84.55.68.56.36.110.3
    Japan2.93.22.93.84.42.62.03.4
    Euro area42.35.54.04.64.85.54.111.0
    Other advanced economies9.58.88.76.410.210.98.27.4
    Short-term interest rates5
    United States3.14.45.75.14.94.86.03.51.82.7
    Japan1.90.80.30.30.20.00.20.00.00.0
    Euro area46.46.14.84.34.13.14.54.23.33.7
    LIBOR5.16.15.65.85.55.56.63.72.13.2
    Developing countries
    Central government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average−2.8−2.6−2.1−2.5−3.8−4.1−3.2−3.9−4.0−3.2
    Median−3.6−3.3−2.2−2.4−3.1−3.3−3.3−3.5−4.0−2.8
    General government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average−3.8−3.2−3.0−3.5−4.8−5.3−4.2−4.9−5.0−4.0
    Median−3.4−3.3−2.6−2.4−3.2−3.5−3.3−3.5−3.5−2.6
    Growth of broad money
    Weighted average68.424.623.022.717.115.111.312.39.312.1
    Median18.716.313.715.110.512.512.311.69.19.3
    Countries in transition
    Central government fiscal balance1−7.4−4.6−4.6−4.7−3.5−2.1−0.1−0.8−0.9
    General government fiscal balance1−7.5−4.7−5.8−5.4−4.9−2.10.2−0.4−1.5−1.5
    Growth of broad money215.075.832.233.220.338.737.126.816.514.6

    Percent of GDP.

    Percent of potential GDP.

    M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs), and M4, respectively. Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For Japan, M2 plus CDs is currency in circulation plus total private and public sector deposits and installments of Sogo Bank plus CDs. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

    Excludes Greece prior to 2001.

    For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for the euro area, a weighted average of national three-month money market interest rates through 1998 and three-month EURIBOR thereafter; for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

    Table 15.Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Fiscal Balances and Balances Excluding Social Security Transactions1(Percent of GDP)
    1994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    General government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies−4.3−4.1−3.4−1.9−1.5−1.00.1−1.4−2.5−2.3
    Major advanced economies−4.3−4.2−3.6−2.1−1.6−1.1−0.1−1.7−3.0−2.8
    United States−3.8−3.3−2.4−1.3−0.10.61.5−0.2−2.6−2.8
    Japan−2.8−4.2−4.9−3.7−5.5−7.0−7.3−7.1−7.2−6.1
    Germany−2.4−3.3−3.4−2.7−2.2−1.51.1−2.8−2.9−2.2
    France2−5.5−5.5−4.1−3.0−2.7−1.6−1.3−1.4−2.5−2.1
    Italy−9.3−7.6−7.1−2.7−2.8−1.8−0.5−2.2−2.0−1.5
    United Kingdom−6.8−5.4−4.2−1.60.21.44.00.2−0.8−1.1
    Canada−6.7−5.3−2.80.20.11.73.11.81.11.2
    Other advanced economies−4.0−3.8−2.5−1.1−0.9−0.50.8−0.20.1
    Spain−6.1−7.0−4.9−3.2−2.6−1.1−0.3−0.1
    Netherlands−3.6−4.2−1.7−1.6−0.90.32.00.1−0.8−0.7
    Belgium−5.0−4.3−3.8−2.0−0.7−0.50.10.4−0.1−0.3
    Sweden−10.8−7.9−3.4−1.61.81.94.04.81.81.8
    Austria3−5.0−5.2−3.8−2.0−2.5−2.4−1.7−0.1−0.5−0.3
    Denmark−2.4−2.3−1.00.41.13.12.52.82.02.2
    Finland−5.7−3.7−3.2−1.51.31.97.04.93.12.0
    Greece−10.0−10.2−7.4−4.0−2.4−1.7−0.80.10.80.7
    Portugal−6.0−4.6−4.0−2.6−1.9−2.9−2.7−4.1−3.6−3.2
    Ireland−1.7−2.1−0.31.22.34.14.51.7−0.4−1.0
    Luxembourg2.92.72.02.93.23.85.85.21.00.7
    Switzerland−2.8−1.9−2.0−2.4−0.4−0.22.4−0.30.1−0.3
    Norway0.43.46.57.83.55.614.714.012.110.9
    Israel−3.2−4.5−5.8−4.3−3.8−4.8−2.2−6.1−6.0−4.5
    Iceland−4.7−3.0−1.60.52.42.4−0.13.70.6
    Cyprus−1.4−1.0−3.4−5.3−5.5−4.0−2.7−2.8−2.6−2.4
    Korea40.10.3−1.7−4.3−3.31.30.70.91.1
    Australia5−3.5−2.1−0.9−0.10.30.90.90.20.10.4
    Taiwan Province of China−3.7−4.5−5.1−3.8−3.4−6.0−4.5−6.5−4.4−2.5
    Hong Kong SAR1.0−0.32.16.5−1.80.8−0.6−5.1−3.6−3.0
    Singapore13.912.29.39.33.64.57.66.44.16.7
    New Zealand62.23.62.71.60.90.40.81.41.51.5
    Memorandum
    European Union−5.6−5.3−4.3−2.4−1.7−0.70.9−1.0−1.5−1.2
    Euro area−5.1−5.0−4.2−2.6−2.3−1.30.1−1.6−1.9−1.5
    Newly industrialized Asian economies−1.1−1.20.7−2.0−2.9−1.8−4.3−2.9−1.3
    Fiscal balance excluding social security transactions
    United States−4.2−3.7−2.7−1.7−0.7−0.4−0.1−1.1−2.6−2.7
    Japan−5.1−6.5−7.0−5.8−7.1−8.5−8.4−7.4−7.1−5.9
    Germany−2.5−2.9−3.1−2.8−2.4−1.81.2−2.7−2.9−2.2
    France−5.0−4.8−3.6−2.6−2.5−1.9−1.9−1.8−2.4−2.3
    Italy−7.1−5.6−5.3−0.71.32.63.51.82.42.8
    Canada−3.9−2.73.02.74.04.93.52.92.7
    Central government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies−3.7−3.4−2.7−1.6−1.3−0.80.3−0.9−2.0−1.9
    Major advanced economies−3.9−3.5−3.0−1.7−1.3−0.80.2−1.2−2.4−2.3
    United States7−3.0−2.6−1.8−0.60.51.32.20.6−1.8−2.0
    Japan8−3.5−4.1−4.4−4.0−5.8−6.7−6.5−6.4−6.1−5.3
    Germany9−1.5−1.4−2.2−1.7−1.5−1.31.3−1.1−1.2−0.8
    France−4.8−4.1−3.7−3.6−3.9−2.5−2.4−2.2−3.1−2.7
    Italy−9.1−8.0−7.0−2.9−2.7−1.6−1.0−2.8−2.7−2.4
    United Kingdom−6.8−5.4−4.3−1.60.31.44.00.2−0.7−1.0
    Canada−4.6−3.9−2.00.70.80.81.71.00.60.6
    Other advanced economies−3.2−2.8−1.7−1.0−1.1−0.50.70.2−0.5−0.2
    Memorandum
    European Union−5.3−4.7−4.0−2.4−1.8−1.00.3−0.9−1.5−1.4
    Euro area−4.5−4.1−3.8−2.6−2.4−1.6−0.4−1.5−1.8−1.5
    Newly industrialized Asian economies1.01.01.00.8−1.3−1.21.0−0.6−1.0−0.1

    On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

    Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

    Based on ESA95 methodology, according to which swap income is not included. Data on swap income are not yet available for other countries in the European Union.

    Data cover the consolidated centeral government including the social security funds but excluding privatization.

    Data exclude net advances (primarily privatization receipts and net policy-related lending).

    Data from 1992 onward are on an accrual basis and are not strictly comparable with previous cash-based data.

    Data are on a budget basis.

    Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

    Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

    Table 16.Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances1(Percent of potential GDP)
    1994199519961997199819992000200120022003
    Structural balance
    Advanced economies−3.8−3.6−2.9−1.6−1.2−0.9−0.7−1.1−1.8−1.5
    Major advanced economies−3.7−3.6−3.0−1.7−1.3−1.0−0.8−1.3−2.2−1.9
    United States−3.2−2.7−1.9−1.1−0.20.30.90.1−1.9−1.9
    Japan−2.5−3.8−5.2−4.1−4.9−6.1−6.8−6.1−5.7−4.6
    Germany2,3−2.5−3.5−2.8−1.7−1.4−1.0−1.5−2.2−1.6−0.9
    France3−3.5−3.7−1.9−1.0−1.5−0.9−1.6−1.6−1.9−1.4
    Italy3−8.1−7.0−6.2−1.9−2.0−0.9−1.3−1.8−1.7−1.2
    United Kingdom3−5.7−4.6−3.4−1.00.31.21.3−0.1−0.6−0.5
    Canada−6.7−5.4−2.00.80.51.62.52.21.61.2
    Other advanced economies−4.3−3.8−2.2−1.3−0.8−0.30.30.30.40.6
    Spain3−5.2−5.1−3.0−1.7−1.8−0.9−0.8−0.40.50.7
    Netherlands3−2.7−3.1−0.8−1.3−1.4−1.0−0.1−0.6−0.4
    Belgium3−3.2−2.6−1.6−0.70.60.3−0.20.51.21
    Sweden−11.8−8.8−4.9−3.70.61.84.64.31.82.0
    Austria3−4.7−5.0−3.7−1.7−2.3−2.5−2.30.31.01.0
    Denmark−1.4−2.0−1.00.10.82.81.93.22.32.3
    Finland−0.70.30.30.12.02.37.16.05.14.1
    Greece−9.4−9.5−6.9−3.9−2.5−1.9−1.3−0.60.10.2
    Portugal3−5.0−3.4−3.2−2.3−2.3−3.4−3.7−4.3−2.9−2.1
    Ireland30.7−1.30.50.91.82.82.1−0.1−1.3−1.4
    Norway4−6.6−4.4−3.5−2.7−3.8−2.9−1.9−2.4−3.0−2.4
    Australia5−3.0−2.0−0.80.10.20.60.80.30.20.5
    New Zealand60.91.71.31.61.70.91.11.61.72.0
    Memorandum
    European Union3,7−4.7−4.5−3.3−1.5−1.1−0.4−0.5−1.0−0.9−0.5
    Euro area3,7−4.1−4.2−3.1−1.5−1.5−0.8−1.1−1.4−1.1−0.6

    On a national income accounts basis. The structural budget position is defined as the actual budget deficit (or surplus) less the effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output. Because of the margin of uncertainty that attaches to estimates of cyclical gaps and to tax and expenditure elasticities with respect to national income, indicators of structural budget positions should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude. Moreover, it is important to note that changes in structural budget balances are not necessarily attributable to policy changes but may reflect the built-in momentum of existing expenditure programs. In the period beyond that for which specific consolidation programs exist, it is assumed that the structural deficit remains unchanged.

    The estimate of the fiscal impulse for 1995 is affected by the assumption by the federal government of the debt of the Treuhandanstalt and various other agencies, which were formerly held outside the general government sector. At the public sector level, there would be an estimated withdrawal of fiscal impulse amounting to just over 1 percent of GDP.

    Excludes one-off receipts from the sale of mobile telephone licenses equivalent to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2000 for Germany, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2001 and 2002 for France, 1.2 percent of GDP in 2000 for Italy, 2.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for the United Kingdom, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2000 for Spain, 0.7 percent of GDP in 2000 for Netherlands, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2001 for Belgium, and 0.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for Austria, 0.3 percent of GDP in 2000 for Portugal, and 0.2 percent of GDP in 2002 for Ireland. Also excludes one-off receipts from sizable asset transactions.

    Excludes oil.

    Excludes commonwealth government privatization receipts.

    Excludes privatization proceeds.

    Excludes Luxembourg.

    Table 17.Advanced Economies: Monetary Aggregates

    (Annual percent change)1

    19941995199619971998199920002001
    Narrow money2
    Advanced economies4.45.14.74.76.08.22.68.5
    United States2.5−1.6−4.4−1.22.11.9−1.76.8
    Japan4.912.810.08.96.111.84.113.6
    Euro area34.25.88.07.510.811.05.16.2
    United Kingdom6.85.66.76.45.311.64.38.0
    Canada8.47.618.910.98.07.814.415.0
    Memorandum
    Newly industrialized Asian economies9.310.55.8−3.80.919.74.57.3
    Broad money4
    Advanced economies2.65.04.85.06.75.85.18.7
    United States0.63.84.55.68.56.36.110.3
    Japan2.93.22.93.84.42.62.03.4
    Euro area32.35.54.04.64.85.54.111.0
    United Kingdom4.29.99.65.68.54.28.56.5
    Canada2.84.12.1−1.40.85.16.45.8
    Memorandum
    Newly industrialized Asian economies16.513.011.411.519.717.014.0