Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
May 2001
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    ANNEX: SUMMING UP BY THE ACTING CHAIR

    The following remarks by the Acting Chair were made at the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion of the World Economic Outlook. They were made on September 7, 2001, prior to the terrorist attack in the United States.

    Executive Directors agreed that prospects for global growth have weakened further since the May 2001 World Economic Outlook. They noted in particular the substantial decline in growth in the United States over the past year; the serious deterioration in economic prospects for Japan; the weaker conditions and outlook in Europe; and the reduction in growth projections for most developing country regions. Directors observed that the slower GDP growth in almost all regions of the globe is accompanied by a sharp decline in trade growth. Financing conditions for emerging markets have also deteriorated, partly owing to renewed financial difficulties in some major countries, although Directors were encouraged that contagion effects have so far been more moderate than in preceding episodes.

    Directors considered that a range of interrelated factors have contributed to the slowdown, including a reassessment of corporate profitability and associated adjustment in equity prices; higher energy and food prices; and earlier monetary policy tightening to contain demand pressures in the United States and in Europe. They noted in particular the role played by the boom and bust in stock prices of information technology (IT) firms, and the associated sharp fall in IT investment and output. More broadly, Directors considered that the faster-than-expected slowdown also reflects the strong cross-country trade and financial linkages that are now increasingly evident across countries.

    With policymakers having generally moved promptly to ease macroeconomic policies, and the impact of earlier shocks now beginning to abate, Directors believed that there is a reasonable prospect that global growth will begin to pick up in the second half of 2001, although at a slower pace than earlier envisaged. They cautioned, however, that substantial downside risks remain, stemming largely from the increasingly synchronized nature of the slowdown, the financial difficulties faced by some major emerging market economies, and the prospect that slower growth could put pressure on weak financial and corporate sectors, particularly in Japan. Many Directors also stressed the need for appropriate policies ensuring that the imbalances built up in the major currency areas during the recent expansion—including the large U.S. current account deficit matched by current account surpluses elsewhere; the apparent overvaluation of the U.S. dollar; low U.S. household savings rates; and equity markets that are still richly valued by historical standards—are adjusted in an orderly way, while sustaining prospects for global growth. In this respect, a number of Directors noted that, to the extent that the U.S. external position reflects the strength of U.S. investment opportunities relative to those in the rest of the world, stronger growth-oriented policies in other countries could contribute to addressing the global imbalances. Several Directors also noted that the continued strength of the U.S. dollar against the euro—although easing some-what in recent weeks—could inhibit recovery in the United States while reducing scope for monetary easing in the euro area; and that the recent strengthening of the yen, if continued, could further weaken economic prospects in Japan.

    Given these uncertainties and risks, Directors agreed that renewed vigilance and a firm determination to act on the policy front are needed in all parts of the world. Macroeconomic policies in the advanced economies need to remain supportive of activity, and in Europe and Japan the determined pursuit of structural reforms will be essential to boost long-term growth. In emerging markets, the outlook remains heavily dependent on developments in the major industrial countries. While the situation varies markedly across countries, Directors underscored the need to maintain prudent macroeconomic policies and to accelerate structural as well as institutional reforms. The international community, including the Fund, needs to continue to stand ready to support these efforts and to help address contagion pressures if they intensify.

    Directors underscored the substantial benefits that new multilateral trade negotiations would yield in terms of supporting growth and strengthening the rules-based trading system. They emphasized that prospects for increased trade and market opening under a new round will help to restore confidence, boost global growth prospects, and contain pressures for protection at a time of increasing economic sluggishness. Directors expressed a range of views on the possible scope of a new round. While many Directors supported a broad, balanced negotiation including both market access and trade rules, several other Directors preferred to focus mainly on the built-in agenda and implementation issues related to existing agreements. Directors considered that the goals for market access should be ambitious, with many Directors favoring liberalization across all sectors, and others emphasizing the large gains for both developed and developing countries that would accrue from liberalization in agriculture, textiles, and clothing, where trade barriers and subsidies remain high. These Directors stressed that a new round should address the particular concerns of developing countries, especially the poorest countries, which have participated less fully in the growth of world trade.

    With past experience suggesting that slowing growth is likely to have a disproportionate impact on the poor, Directors stressed that the global effort to reduce poverty takes on even more importance. The central responsibility for addressing poverty lies with the national governments of the countries concerned. In this connection, they welcomed the New African Initiative announced by the Organization of African Unity, emphasizing the role of African ownership, leadership, and accountability for planning and implementing reforms. Most Directors considered that such efforts should be accompanied by increased support from the advanced economies. Pending the launch and completion of a new round of trade negotiations, they called for greater efforts to increase market access for the exports of the poorest countries as part of a coherent approach to poverty alleviation, including debt relief under the enhanced HIPC Initiative, and higher official aid flows. Funding of the strategy to fight HIV/AIDS and other diseases is also imperative.

    Major Currency Areas

    Directors noted that output growth in the major currency areas has continued to weaken through the first half of 2001. While recent indicators are mixed, most Directors considered that there is a reasonable prospect of a gradual recovery in the United States in the second half of 2001. Nonetheless, Directors acknowledged that substantial uncertainties remain, including the outlook for productivity growth; the robustness of household balance sheets and spending—especially given losses in stock market wealth and rising unemployment; and the extent of over-investment in the economy. In this context, they agreed that monetary policy would need to remain flexible, providing further support if activity continues to weaken, and containing possible inflationary pressures if the recovery takes place more quickly than expected. Directors viewed the recent tax package as an appropriate and timely response to the present slowdown, while stressing that spending and tax provisions will need to be implemented flexibly to ensure that medium-term fiscal targets are reached.

    Directors expressed serious concern about the deterioration in economic conditions in Japan, where prospects for near-term recovery remain highly uncertain—especially given the persistently low level of domestic confidence, weakening external demand, and very limited room for maneuver on the macroeconomic policy front. They were encouraged by the new government’s stated determination to address underlying weaknesses in the banking and corporate sectors and to push forward reforms more generally, and urged that corrective measures be implemented vigorously. While these measures could lead to slower growth in the short-term, Directors also highlighted the improved confidence in Japan’s future economic prospects that would result from the steadfast implementation of a wide-ranging reform package. It would, nevertheless, be important that macroeconomic policies support activity to the extent possible. In this regard, they recommended full use of the flexibility available under the new monetary policy framework, and a cautious approach to the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus until recovery is clearly underway. Directors welcomed the announcement of a modest supplementary budget in the fall, as well as the recent shift in expenditure priorities from public works toward outlays facilitating economic restructuring, including a strengthened social safety net, and urged that this be continued.

    Directors observed that the economic slowdown in the euro area since mid-2000 has been driven by weaker growth of real incomes and exports, together with broader spillover effects from the global slowdown—reflecting increasing international linkages of corporate and financial sectors. While the still highly competitive exchange rate, the dissipation of recent price shocks, and tax cuts in some countries should support prospects for a recovery, they agreed that the outlook remains subject to uncertainty, especially if global recovery is delayed or consumer confidence falters further. Against this backdrop, Directors welcomed the recent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, and encouraged the authorities to continue to strike a careful balance between the need to preserve the credibility of their commitment to price stability and the use of any scope for further easing if warranted. On the fiscal side, Directors agreed that fiscal revenues should be allowed to fluctuate with the cycle, while maintaining expenditure targets under medium-term Stability Programs, although some Directors believed that there is room for full operation of automatic stabilizers only in countries with a sufficiently strong budgetary position. Overall, Directors underscored the central importance of accelerating structural reforms, including in labor markets and public pension arrangements, in order to raise potential output growth, lower unemployment, and reduce future fiscal pressures.

    Emerging Markets

    Directors noted that growth in Latin America has weakened sharply, reflecting the global slowdown, slowing capital inflows, and a variety of country-specific factors, including the difficult situation facing Argentina. Given generally high external financing requirements, many countries in the region have relatively little scope for anti-cyclical monetary and fiscal support, and indeed some countries have tightened policies further to maintain external confidence and avoid adverse debt dynamics. Against this backdrop, Directors welcomed the new adjustment program announced in Argentina, underscoring the need for full implementation of the zero deficit law and early reform of fiscal arrangements with the provinces. They also welcomed the strengthened economic program in Brazil and the recent tightening of fiscal policies in Mexico. Directors emphasized that the situation nevertheless remains fragile, and that the authorities in the region will need to continue to monitor developments closely and be ready to take additional measures if necessary.

    Directors observed that growth in most countries of emerging Asia, with the notable exception of China, has slowed sharply since mid-2000, and that countries exposed to the global slowdown in the high technology sector have been especially affected. They considered that prospects for stronger growth in 2002 depend largely on a recovery of the global economy and the electronics cycle, as well as on developments in the Japanese economy. Directors agreed that macroeconomic policies should continue to support activity to the extent possible, although high levels of government deficit or debt constrain the room for maneuver in some cases. They also emphasized the need for more rapid progress in tackling financial sector, corporate, and other structural weaknesses. Welcoming the ongoing buoyancy of the Chinese economy, Directors encouraged the authorities to press ahead with reforms to strengthen the banking sector and restructure state-owned enterprises.

    Directors observed that GDP growth in most countries in emerging Europe is generally expected to ease moderately, owing largely to the slowdown in western Europe. While the appropriate short term policy mix varies across countries in light of cyclical conditions, Directors agreed that medium-term policies should remain firmly oriented toward the objective of EU accession and fiscal consolidation, especially given the need to reduce high external current account deficits and address pressures associated with population aging. They noted that the wide-ranging reform and stabilization measures being implemented by Turkey have yet to result in a lowering of domestic real interest rates to levels that would support growth and help to ensure debt sustainability. Directors stressed that continued full implementation of the program remains critical to boost domestic and external confidence.

    Directors observed that growth in Russia and other countries of the CIS remains relatively robust, following the decline from the exceptionally high levels of 2000. Policymakers in Russia and other energy-exporting countries should strike a delicate balance between creating sufficiently tight domestic liquidity conditions to hold down inflation and avoiding excessive and rapid appreciation of the real exchange rate. Directors stressed that the high level of external debt in a number of the poorest CIS countries is a serious concern, requiring close monitoring. Acceleration of structural reforms—particularly strengthening institutions and governance, re-structuring enterprises and the financial sector, and transforming the role of the state—remains critical in most countries in the region.

    Directors noted that growth in Africa is expected to be reasonably well sustained in 2001, although the outlook will depend on external developments and on the security situation in individual countries. While higher oil and gas prices have supported a pickup in growth among energy exporting countries, persistent weaknesses in most nonfuel commodity prices continue to constrain activity elsewhere. They noted that sound macroeconomic and structural policies are underpinning growth in an increasing number of countries, but that prospects for growth and poverty alleviation in some continue to be impaired by economic and political uncertainties, including ongoing conflict. Directors concurred with the need for wide-ranging policy efforts to improve the climate for investment, diversification, and growth: key measures would include strengthening the delivery of education, health care, and other public services; resolving and preventing conflict; improving governance; and liberalizing trade.

    Directors noted that, in the Middle East, growth is expected to moderate in 2001 owing to lower oil production quotas and prices, the weakening global outlook, and the deteriorating regional security situation. They welcomed the firm fiscal restraint being applied in the oil-producing countries as they seek to avoid the boom-bust patterns experienced under previous oil price fluctuations. Directors highlighted the importance of maintaining firm macroeconomic policies, continuing trade liberalization, and improving the business climate in order to help promote diversification and growth.

    Directors had a broad-ranging discussion of the macroeconomic impact of the IT revolution. They noted that to date, the IT revolution has largely followed the pattern of past technological revolutions, with an initial phase characterized by a boom and bust in the stock prices of innovating firms, as well as in spending on goods embodying the new technology. Directors noted that rapid technological progress in IT production has already led—through falling relative prices—to significant economic benefits, including through increased capital deepening and consumer surplus. Notwithstanding the current IT slump, they believed that the IT revolution will continue to have a positive impact on the global economy over the longer term as activity is reorganized to take advantage of IT. Directors highlighted the importance for many countries to strengthen structural policies further, including labor market policies and the improvement of human capital formation, in order to facilitate the reorganization of production and allow the full benefits of IT use to be captured.

    Directors welcomed the analysis of the impact of international financial integration on developing countries. Noting the weak positive relationship that empirical work finds between international capital account liberalization and economic growth, Directors considered that these findings have to be assessed taking into account a variety of factors, including the partial nature of the analyses thus far, the degree to which sample countries meet the macroeconomic and institutional preconditions for successful capital account liberalization, and the varying impact of different types of capital flows on enhancing growth prospects. They highlighted the significant long-term benefits that capital account liberalization can bring through raising domestic investment and deepening domestic financial markets, and noted in particular the beneficial role of foreign direct investment and the spillovers to the rest of the economy from technological transfer. At the same time, Directors agreed that opening up financial markets to the rest of the world is a complex and challenging process, which can involve significant risks by exposing countries to financial volatility and sudden reversals in capital flows. The challenge for developing countries is therefore to maximize the net benefits from liberalization over time. Directors agreed that this requires implementation of carefully designed policies in a wide range of areas that take into account each country’s specific circumstances and stage of development. Directors concluded from the available country experience that, while there is no simple rule for sequencing either the speed or the order of capital account liberalization, as a rule such reforms need the support of both consistent macroeconomic policies and a sufficiently strong institutional framework, particularly in the financial sector.

    STATISTICAL APPENDIX

    The statistical appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises four sections: Assumptions, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables.

    The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2001–2002 and the medium-term scenario for 2003–2006 are summarized in the first section. The second section provides a general description of the data and of the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the third section. Note that the group of advanced economies now includes Cyprus.

    The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through the end of August 2001. The figures for 2001 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; since they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

    Assumptions

    Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the period July 23–August 17, 2001. For 2001 and 2002, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.271 and 1.274, respectively.

    Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected advanced economies are described in Box A1.

    It is assumed that the price of oil will average $26.80 a barrel in 2001 and $24.50 a barrel in 2002.

    With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 4.1 percent in 2001 and 3.7 percent in 2002; that the three-month certificate of deposit rate in Japan will average 0.2 percent in 2001 and 0.1 in 2002; and that the three-month interbank deposit rate for the euro will average 4.3 percent in 2001 and 4.0 percent in 2002.

    With respect to introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998 the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member states adopting the euro are:

    1 euro= 13.7603Austrian schillings
    = 40.3399Belgian francs
    = 1.95583Deutsche mark
    = 5.94573Finnish markkaa
    = 6.55957French francs
    = 340.750Greek drachma1
    = 0.787564Irish pound
    = 1,936.27Italian lire
    = 40.3399Luxembourg francs
    = 2.20371Netherlands guilders
    = 200.482Portuguese escudos
    = 166.386Spanish pesetas

    See Box 5.4 in the October 1998 World Economic Outlook for details on how the conversion rates were established.

    Data and Conventions

    Data and projections for 182 countries form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook (the World Economic Outlook database). The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and area departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

    Box A1.Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies

    The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the World Economic Outlook are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. In cases where the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless otherwise indicated. Specific assumptions used in some of the advanced economies follow (see also Tables 1416 in the Statistical Appendix for data on fiscal and structural balances).1

    United States. The U.S. fiscal projections are based on the Administration’s August Mid-Session Review, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. This covers legislation enacted as of August, notably the Economic Growth and Tax Reconciliation Act of 2001. In addition, the fiscal projections assume that tax reduction measures scheduled to expire during the forecast period will be extended. These include provisions providing relief from the alternative minimum tax and other “temporary” tax credits such as the research and experimentation credit that have been consistently renewed in the past. The Administration’s stated medium-term fiscal objective implies unified federal budget surpluses equivalent to prospective surpluses in the Social Security trust fund.

    Japan. The projections take account of the FY2000 supplementary budget and the FY2001 budget. The ¥11 trillion stimulus package announced in October 2000 includes additional public investment of ¥5 trillion (headline figure), most of which would take place in the first half of CY2001. Local governments are projected to largely offset their share in the stimulus package with cuts in own-account expenditures elsewhere. For FY2002 projections, the impact of a ¥30 trillion cap on new JGB issues on public investment is factored into the calculations, which also assume a supplementary budget with an effective demand component of about ¥1 trillion (to take place toward the end of 2001).

    Germany. Fiscal projections are generally based on the national authorities’ medium-term expenditure plans from June 2001, which are consistent with the targets of Germany’s Stability Program 2000. The expenditure plans include the costs associated with the pension reform of May 2001, which will be phased in beginning 2002. Projections for revenue and cyclical expenditure are based on the IMF staff’s macroeconomic framework and take into account the effects of the tax reform package of July 2000, to be implemented in stages during 2001–05.

    France. The projections are based on the authorities’ announced policies. For 2001 and 2002, the projection incorporates the estimates presented in the May 2001 Debat d’Orientation Budgetaire and the guidelines announced in the lettres de cadrage for the 2002 budget, adjusted for the IMF staff’s weaker macroeconomic scenario. For the outer years, the projections are broadly consistent with the authorities’ stability program, adjusted for the differences between the IMF staff’s and the authorities’ macroeconomic assumptions. The multiyear tax cut plan announced in 2000 is assumed to be implemented fully and to have an impact as estimated by the authorities.

    Italy. The fiscal projections for 2002–06 build on the authorities’ program targets, as published in the medium-term program released in July 2001 (DPEF 2002–06), adjusted for differences in macroeconomic assumptions.

    United Kingdom. The fiscal projections are based on the March 2001 budget. Additionally, the projections incorporate more recent statistical releases from the Office for National Statistics, including provisional budgetary outturns through March 2001. The main difference with respect to the official budgetary projections is that the staff projections are based on potential growth of 2¾ percent rather than the 2¼ percent underlying official projections. They also include an adjustment for the proceeds of the recent UMTS license auction (about 2.4 percent of GDP) received in fiscal year 2000/01 to conform to the Eurostat accounting guidelines. These proceeds are not included in the computation of the structural balance.

    Canada. The fiscal outlook assumes tax and expenditure policies in line with those outlined in Economic Update of the Department of Finance Canada from May 17, 2001, adjusted for the staff’s economic projections. In line with the recent announcement in the Economic Update, the staff expects a federal government budget surplus of CAN$15 billion for the fiscal year 2000/01, reflecting an upward revision from previous CAN$10 billion announced by Government in October 2000. Over the medium-term, the staff assumes that the federal government budget will be in surplus by CAN$3 billion a year, an amount equivalent to the contingency reserve. The consolidated fiscal position for the provinces is assumed to evolve in line with their stated medium-term targets.

    Australia. The fiscal projections through the fiscal year 2004/05 are based on the 2001/02 budget, which was published by the Australian Treasury in May 2001. For the remainder of the projection period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.

    Belgium. Fiscal projections are based on existing policies and on the government’s medium-term tax and expenditure plans announced in the 2001 budget. The projections incorporate the IMF staff’s assumptions for economic growth and interest rates and assume that a large part of the savings on interest expenditures—resulting from ongoing large primary surpluses—are devoted to further fiscal consolidation. Revenues from UMTS licenses amounting to 0.2 percent of GDP are included in the deficit figures for 2001.

    Greece. The fiscal projections are based on the authorities’ policies presented in the 2001 budget, adjusted for different macroeconomic assumptions. For the 2002–06 period, primary current expenditures are assumed to maintain their share of GDP, while the current revenue share is projected to decline slightly (by ¼ percent of GDP), as social insurance contributions—which are tied to wages—are expected to grow less rapidly than output. Thus, the overall surplus is projected to grow largely in line with a reduction in interest expenditures, which is the result of euro area membership.

    Korea. The fiscal projections for 2001 are based on the government’s budget, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. The projections do not include the supplementary budget submitted to the National Assembly in June 2001, which was approved in September 2001. For the medium term, the projections are based on the IMF staff’s assumptions for economic growth and interest rates.

    Netherlands. The 2000 budget balance includes revenues from the sale of mobile phone licenses of NLG 5.9 billion (0.7 percent of GDP). The fiscal projections through 2002 reflect the government’s rules-based approach to fiscal policy, which comprises medium-term real expenditure ceilings, and a baseline path for revenues adjusted for the staff’s growth projections. As permitted under the rules, spending is projected to be increased up to the ceiling. The revenue baseline path includes the effects of the tax cuts as part of the tax reform package implemented in 2001. The tax revenue projection for 2002 incorporates a small additional tax cut of 0.2 percent of GDP. For the period after 2002, real spending is assumed to grow by an annual average of 1.6 percent. The revenue ratio is projected to fall by, on average, 0.3 percent of GDP per year, reflecting the notion that part of current revenue windfalls are non-permanent.

    Portugal. The fiscal projections for 2001 are based in the IMF staff’s estimate of the effects of the 2001 budget and changes in fiscal policy since the announcement of the budget, as well as the staff’s macroeconomic framework. For 2002–05 a constant structural primary balance is assumed.

    Spain. Fiscal projections through 2004 are based on the policies outlined in the national authorities’ updated stability program of January 2001. Projections for subsequent years assume no significant changes in those policies.

    Sweden. Projections for 2001 are based on the central government budget outturn for the first half of 2001, the policies and projections (for general government) underlying the Spring Budget Bill published in April 2001. The projections also take account of the authorities’ medium-term fiscal objective of a general government surplus of 2 percent of GDP over the economic cycle, the Ministry of Finance’s medium-term fiscal projections for 2002–04, and the nominal ceilings on central government expenditures for the same period. The surpluses projected by staff include tax reductions amounting to 2 percent of GDP by 2003. These reductions, while somewhat greater than those assumed in the authorities’ announced medium-term projections, are consistent with their medium-term fiscal objective.

    Switzerland. The projections for 2001–2004 are based on official budget plans that include measures to balance the Confederation’s budget by 2001 and strengthen the finances of social security. Beyond 2004, the general government’s structural balance is assumed to remain unchanged.

    Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: official interest rates will therefore increase when economic indicators suggest that prospective inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range; and they will decrease when indicators suggest that prospective inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that prospective output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant. On this basis, the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits is assumed to average 4.1 percent in 2001 and 3.7 percent in 2002. The projected path for U.S. dollar short-term interest rates reflects the assumption that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower the target Federal Funds rate by another 25 basis points in the third quarter of 2001, and then hold rates constant until a 25 basis point increase in the final quarter of 2002. The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.2 percent in 2001 and 0.1 percent in 2002, with the current monetary policy framework being maintained. The rate on six-month euro deposits is assumed to average 4.3 percent in 2001, reflecting the assumption of moderate easing in the remainder of the year, and 3.9 in 2002. Changes in interest rate assumptions compared with the May 2001 World Economic Outlook are summarized in Table 1.1.

    1The output gap is actual less potential output, as a percent of potential output. Structural balances are expressed as a percent of potential output. The structural budget balance is the budgetary position that would be observed if the level of actual output coincided with potential output. Changes in the structural budget balance consequently include effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other noncyclical fluctuations in the budget balance. The computations of structural budget balances are based on IMF staff estimates of potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities (see the October 1993 World Economic Outlook, Annex I). Net debt is defined as gross debt less financial assets of the general government, which include assets held by the social security insurance system. Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.

    Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the national compilation of statistics, including the analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The World Economic Outlook database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

    The completion in 1993 of the comprehensive revision of the standardized System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA) and the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM) represented important improvements in the standards of economic statistics and analysis.2 The IMF was actively involved in both projects, particularly the new Balance of Payments Manual, which reflects the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions. Key changes introduced with the new Manual were summarized in Box 13 of the May 1994 World Economic Outlook. The process of adapting country balance of payments data to the definitions of the new BPM began with the May 1995 World Economic Outlook. However, full concordance with the BPM is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, and hence the World Economic Outlook estimates are still only partially adapted to the BPM.

    The members of the European Union have recently adopted a harmonized system for the compilation of the national accounts, referred to as ESA 1995. All national accounts data from 1995 onward are now presented on the basis of the new system. Revision by national authorities of data prior to 1995 to conform to the new system has progressed, but has in some cases not been completed. In such cases, historical World Economic Outlook data have been carefully adjusted to avoid breaks in the series. Users of EU national accounts data prior to 1995 should nevertheless exercise caution until such time as the revision of historical data by national statistical agencies has been fully completed. See Box 1.2, Revisions in National Accounts Methodologies, in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook.

    Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the developing and transition country groups, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply.

    • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and the growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of world or group GDP.

    • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities (PPPs) as a share of total world or group GDP.3

    • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

    • Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

    For central and eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies (through 1990) are converted to U.S. dollars at the implicit U.S. dollar/ruble conversion rates obtained from each country’s national currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and for the ruble.

    Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.

    Classification of Countries

    Summary of the Country Classification

    The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into three major groups: advanced economies, developing countries, and countries in transition.4 Rather than being based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, this classification has evolved over time with the objective of facilitating analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful organization of data. A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members, and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been compiled. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, whereas San Marino, among the advanced economies, is an example of an economy for which a database has not been completed. It should also be noted that, owing to a lack of data, only three of the former republics of the dissolved Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Slovenia) are included in the group composites for countries in transition.

    Each of the three main country groups is further divided into a number of subgroups. Among the advanced economies, the seven largest in terms of GDP, collectively referred to as the major advanced countries, are distinguished as a subgroup, and so are the 15 current members of the European Union, the 12 members of the euro area,5 and the four newly industrialized Asian economies. The developing countries are classified by region, as well as into a number of analytical and other groups. A regional breakdown is also used for the classification of the countries in transition. Table A provides an overview of these standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average 2000 shares of groups in aggregate PPP-valued GDP, total exports of goods and services, and population.

    Table A.Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20001(Percent of total for group or world)
    Number of CountriesGDPExports of Goods and ServicesPopulation
    Share of total for
    Advanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorld
    Advanced economies29100.057.1100.075.7100.015.4
    Major advanced economies779.545.462.947.774.311.5
    United States38.522.018.814.229.74.6
    Japan12.87.39.27.013.62.1
    Germany8.14.611.08.48.91.4
    France5.63.26.65.06.31.0
    Italy5.43.15.13.96.10.9
    United Kingdom5.53.16.75.16.31.0
    Canada3.52.05.54.23.30.5
    Other advanced economies2220.511.737.128.125.74.0
    Memorandum
    European Union1535.020.047.636.040.26.2
    Euro area1228.016.037.928.732.35.0
    Newly industrialized Asian economies46.03.413.19.98.61.3
    Developing countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorld
    Developing countries125100.037.0100.020.0100.077.9
    Regional groups
    Africa518.63.210.32.115.712.2
    Sub-Sahara486.62.47.61.514.211.1
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa463.81.43.80.810.58.2
    Developing Asia2558.321.646.29.266.852.0
    China31.211.618.43.727.021.1
    India12.64.63.90.821.416.6
    Other developing Asia2314.55.423.74.718.414.3
    Middle East, Malta, and Turkey1610.53.920.94.26.65.1
    Western Hemisphere3322.68.422.74.510.98.5
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel189.03.321.54.37.05.4
    Nonfuel10991.033.778.515.793.072.4
    of which, primary products426.52.45.91.210.98.5
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries11397.336.087.817.699.377.3
    of which, official financing435.62.15.11.013.810.8
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing Experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–985524.69.124.04.829.022.6
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries405.11.94.30.913.610.6
    Middle East and north Africa2110.33.820.34.17.55.9
    Countries in transitionWorldCountries in transitionWorldCountries in transitionWorld
    Countries in transition28100.05.9100.04.3100.06.7
    Central and eastern Europe1639.22.351.42.229.72.0
    CIS and Mongolia1261.13.648.82.171.44.8
    Russia42.02.534.31.536.82.5
    Excluding Russia1119.11.114.50.634.62.3

    The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs.

    General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

    Advanced Economies

    The 29 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The seven largest in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. The current members of the European Union (15 countries), the euro area (12 countries), and the newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables for the European Union and the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

    Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup
    European UnionEuro AreaNewly Industrialized Asian EconomiesOther Countries
    Major advanced economiesFranceFranceCanada
    GermanyGermanyJapan
    ItalyItalyUnited States
    United Kingdom
    Other advanced economiesAustriaLuxembourgAustriaHong Kong SAR1Australia
    BelgiumNetherlandsBelgiumKoreaCyprus
    DenmarkPortugalFinlandSingaporeIceland
    FinlandSpainGreeceTaiwan Province of ChinaIsrael
    GreeceSwedenIrelandNew Zealand
    IrelandLuxembourgNorway
    NetherlandsSwitzerland
    Portugal
    Spain

    On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China

    In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the eastern Lander (i.e., the former German Democratic Republic). Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. Hence, in tables featuring data expressed as annual percent change, these apply to west Germany in years up to and including 1991, but to unified Germany from 1992 onward. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

    Developing Countries

    The group of developing countries (125 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as advanced economies or as countries in transition, together with a few dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.

    The regional breakdowns of developing countries in the World Economic Outlook conform to the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) classification—Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, and Western Hemisphere—with one important exception. Because all of the non-advanced countries in Europe except Malta and Turkey are included in the group of countries in transition, the World Economic Outlook classification places these two countries in a combined Middle East, Malta, and Turkey region. In both classifications, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in this region, not in Africa. Three additional regional groupings—two of them constituting part of Africa and one a subgroup of Asia—are included in the World Economic Outlook because of their analytical significance. These are sub-Sahara, sub-Sahara excluding Nigeria and South Africa, and Asia excluding China and India.

    The developing countries are also classified according to analytical criteria and into other groups. The analytical criteria reflect countries’ composition of export earnings and other income from abroad, a distinction between net creditor and net debtor countries, and, for the net debtor countries, financial criteria based on external financing source and experience with external debt servicing. Included as “other groups” are currently the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), and Middle East and north Africa (MENA). The detailed composition of developing countries in the regional, analytical, and other groups is shown in Tables C through E.

    Table C.Developing Countries by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
    FuelNonfuel, Of Which Primary Products
    Africa
    Sub-SaharaAngolaBenin
    Congo, Rep. ofBotswana
    Equatorial GuineaBurkina Faso
    GabonBurundi
    NigeriaCentral African Rep.
    Chad
    Congo, Democratic Rep. of
    Côte d’Ivoire
    Gambia, The
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Namibia
    Niger
    Somalia
    Sudan
    Swaziland
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    North AfricaAlgeria
    Developing AsiaBrunei DarussalamBhutan
    Cambodia
    Myanmar
    Papua New Guinea
    Solomon Islands
    Vanuatu
    Vietnam
    Middle East, Malta and TurkeyBahrain
    Iran, Islamic Rep. of
    Iraq
    Kuwait
    Libya
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    United Arab Emirates
    Western HemisphereTrinidad and TobagoBelize
    VenezuelaBolivia
    Chile
    Guyana
    Honduras
    Nicaragua
    Paraguay
    Peru
    Suriname
    Table D.Developing Countries by Region and Main External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Countries
    By main external financing source
    CountriesNet debtor countriesOf which official financing
    Africa
    Sub-Sahara
    Angola
    Benin
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cameroon
    Cape Verde
    Central African Rep.
    Chad
    Comoros
    Congo, Democratic Rep. of
    Congo, Rep. of
    Côte d’Ivoire
    Djibouti
    Equatorial Guinea
    Eritrea
    Ethiopia
    Gabon
    Gambia, The
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Kenya
    Lesotho
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Mauritius
    Mozambique, Rep. of
    Namibia
    Niger
    Nigeria
    Rwanda
    São Tomé and Príncipe
    Senegal
    Seychelles
    Sierra Leone
    Somalia
    South Africa
    Sudan
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Uganda
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    North Africa
    Algeria
    Morocco
    Tunisia
    Developing Asia
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh
    Bhutan
    Cambodia
    China
    Fiji
    India
    Indonesia
    Kiribati
    Lao People’s Democratic Rep.
    Malaysia
    Maldives
    Myanmar
    Nepal
    Pakistan
    Papua New Guinea
    Philippines
    Samoa
    Solomon Islands
    Sri Lanka
    Thailand
    Tonga
    Vanuatu
    Vietnam
    Middle East, Malta, and Turkey
    Bahrain
    Egypt
    Iran, Islamic Rep. Of
    Iraq
    Jordan
    Lebanon
    Malta
    Oman
    Syrian Arab Rep.
    Turkey
    Yemen, Rep. of
    Western Hemisphere
    Antigua and Barbuda
    Argentina
    Bahamas, The
    Barbados
    Belize
    Bolivia
    Brazil
    Chile
    Colombia
    Costa Rica
    Dominica
    Dominican Rep.
    Ecuador
    El Salvador
    Grenada
    Guatemala
    Guyana
    Haiti
    Honduras
    Jamaica
    Mexico
    Netherlands Antilles
    Nicaragua
    Panama
    Paraguay
    Peru
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    St. Lucia
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines
    Suriname
    Trinidad and Tobago
    Uruguay
    Venezuela
    Table E.Other Developing Country Groups
    CountriesHeavily Indebted Poor CountriesMiddle East and North Africa
    Africa
    Sub-Sahara
    Angola
    Benin
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cameroon
    Central African Rep.
    Chad
    Congo, Democratic Rep. of
    Congo, Rep. of
    Côte d’Ivoire
    Djibouti
    Ethiopia
    Gambia, The
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Kenya
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Mozambique, Rep. of
    Niger
    Rwanda
    São Tomé and Príncipe
    Senegal
    Sierra Leone
    Somalia
    Sudan
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Uganda
    Zambia
    North Africa
    Algeria
    Morocco
    Tunisia
    Developing Asia
    Lao People’s Democratic Rep.
    Myanmar
    Vietnam
    Middle East, Malta, and Turkey
    Bahrain
    Egypt
    Iran, Islamic Rep. Of
    Iraq
    Jordan
    Kuwait
    Lebanon
    Liberia
    Libya
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Syrian Arab Rep.
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen, Rep. of
    Western Hemisphere
    Bolivia
    Guyana
    Honduras
    Nicaragua

    The first analytical criterion, by source of export earnings, distinguishes between categories: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITC 0,1,2,4, and 68).

    The financial criteria focus on net creditor and net debtor countries which are differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by official external financing and by experience with debt servicing.6

    The other groups of developing countries (see Table E) constitute the HIPCs and MENA countries. The first group comprises 40 of the countries (all except Nigeria) considered by the IMF and the World Bank for their debt initiative, known as the HIPC Initiative.7 Middle East and north Africa, also referred to as the MENA countries, is a World Economic Outlook group, whose composition straddles the Africa and Middle East and Europe regions. It is defined as the Arab League countries plus the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    Countries in Transition

    The group of countries in transition (28 countries) is divided into two regional subgroups: central and eastern Europe, and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia. The detailed country composition is shown in Table F.

    Table F.Countries in Transition by Region
    Central and Eastern EuropeCommonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia
    AlbaniaLithuaniaArmenia
    BelarusMacedonia, former Yugoslav Republic ofAzerbaijan
    Bosnia and HerzegovinaPolandBelarus
    BulgariaRomaniaGeorgia
    CroatiaSlovak RepublicKazakhstan
    Czech RepublicSloveniaKyrgyz Republic
    EstoniaYugoslavia, Federal Republic of (Serbia/Montenegro)Moldova
    HungaryMongolia
    LatviaRussia
    Tajikistan
    Turkmenistan
    Ukraine
    Uzbekistan

    One common characteristic of these countries is the transitional state of their economies from a centrally administered system to one based on market principles. Another is that this transition involves the transformation of sizable industrial sectors whose capital stocks have proven largely obsolete. Although several other countries are also “in transition” from partially command-based economic systems toward market-based systems (including China, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Vietnam, and a number of African countries), most of these are largely rural, low-income economies for whom the principal challenge is one of economic development. These countries are therefore classified in the developing country group rather than in the group of countries in transition.

    List of Tables

    Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

    45. Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

    46. Developing Countries—Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators

    Table 1.Summary of World Output1(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1983–921993–20021993199419951996199719981999200020012002
    World3.43.52.23.73.74.04.22.83.64.72.63.5
    Advanced economies3.32.71.43.42.72.93.52.73.43.81.32.1
    United States3.43.32.74.02.73.64.44.34.14.11.32.2
    European Union2.62.2-0.42.82.41.72.62.92.73.41.82.2
    Japan3.90.90.51.01.63.31.9-1.10.81.5-0.50.2
    Other advanced economies4.64.24.25.85.14.14.61.25.75.91.53.5
    Developing countries4.75.46.36.76.26.65.83.53.95.84.35.3
    Regional groups
    Africa2.03.10.52.32.95.63.13.32.52.83.84.4
    Developing Asia7.37.29.49.79.08.36.54.06.16.85.86.2
    Middle East, Malta, and Turkey3.53.63.20.34.75.15.14.11.06.02.34.8
    Western Hemisphere2.33.24.05.01.73.65.32.30.24.21.73.6
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel2.63.00.50.13.03.84.13.31.34.94.54.2
    Nonfuel5.05.77.17.46.56.85.93.64.25.94.35.4
    of which, primary products2.64.43.95.36.55.75.73.22.23.83.34.8
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries4.85.56.56.96.36.65.93.64.05.84.45.4
    of which, official financing2.84.01.62.55.35.34.23.93.74.04.65.4
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–982.73.73.54.65.25.04.4-0.42.14.53.44.4
    Countries in transition0.1-0.2-8.9-8.6-1.5-0.51.6-0.83.66.34.04.1
    Central and eastern Europe3.0-0.33.05.63.92.52.32.03.83.54.2
    Commonwealth of Independent
    States and Mongolia-2.0-12.6-14.6-5.5-3.31.0-2.84.67.84.44.0
    Russia-1.9-13.0-13.5-4.2-3.40.9-4.95.48.34.04.0
    Excluding Russia-2.2-11.8-17.0-8.6-3.01.41.62.86.85.44.1
    Memorandum
    Median growth rate
    Advanced economies3.23.00.74.12.93.03.83.33.73.81.72.5
    Developing countries3.44.03.33.84.44.64.53.73.43.93.84.5
    Countries in transition-0.11.8-8.1-3.02.13.03.73.83.15.14.54.5
    Output per capita
    Advanced economies2.92.00.82.72.12.32.82.02.82.40.71.6
    Developing countries2.53.84.45.04.54.84.22.02.34.32.93.9
    Countries in transition-0.5-9.0-8.6-1.4-0.32.0-0.64.16.54.44.5
    World growth based on market exchange rates3.02.71.02.92.83.23.52.23.03.91.62.5
    Value of world output in billions of U.S. dollars
    At market exchange rates18,12130,39425,09027,05029,60930,84730,78830,79331,62732,32632,17833,633
    At purchasing power parities22,80639,47630,46732,17033,99636,03238,22739,65241,58544,54947,47350,612

    Real GDP.

    Table 2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1983–921993–20021993199419951996199719981999200020012002200020012002
    Real GDP
    Advanced economies3.32.71.43.42.72.93.52.73.43.81.32.1
    Major advanced economies3.22.51.33.12.32.73.22.83.03.41.11.82.80.72.6
    United States3.43.32.74.02.73.64.44.34.14.11.32.22.80.83.1
    Japan3.90.90.51.01.63.31.9-1.10.81.5-0.50.22.5-0.91.0
    Germany3.11.4-1.12.31.70.81.42.01.83.00.81.82.50.82.4
    France2.22.0-0.91.81.91.11.93.53.03.42.02.13.11.32.6
    Italy2.31.7-0.92.22.91.12.01.81.62.91.82.02.61.13.2
    United Kingdom2.52.82.34.42.82.63.52.62.33.12.02.42.61.72.9
    Canada2.63.32.44.72.81.64.33.95.14.42.02.23.51.72.4
    Other advanced economies3.93.61.94.64.33.84.22.24.95.31.93.3
    Spain3.22.8-1.02.42.82.43.94.34.04.12.72.83.82.53.6
    Netherlands2.82.80.83.22.33.03.84.33.73.51.42.23.01.22.3
    Belgium2.32.1-1.53.02.61.23.42.42.74.01.72.0
    Sweden1.72.4-2.24.13.71.12.13.64.13.61.72.52.31.82.6
    Austria2.62.10.52.41.52.01.33.32.83.31.62.6
    Denmark1.92.55.52.82.53.02.82.13.21.42.02.82.00.7
    Finland1.63.6-1.14.03.84.06.35.34.05.72.02.65.51.32.7
    Greece22.12.7-1.62.02.12.43.53.13.44.34.33.8
    Portugal3.02.6-1.42.42.93.73.84.73.43.41.61.73.41.01.8
    Ireland3.77.92.75.810.07.810.88.610.911.56.34.9
    Luxembourg5.55.58.54.13.52.97.35.07.38.54.24.3
    Switzerland1.91.3-0.50.50.50.31.72.31.53.51.61.72.81.02.6
    Norway2.93.12.75.53.84.94.72.41.12.31.92.2
    Israel4.54.33.66.96.84.53.32.72.66.20.75.4
    Iceland1.83.00.64.50.15.24.74.54.13.61.70.7
    Cyprus6.34.00.75.96.11.92.55.04.55.14.24.0
    Korea8.75.35.58.38.96.85.0-6.710.98.82.54.54.62.84.8
    Australia3.14.13.85.04.43.73.85.64.73.82.33.82.03.93.9
    Taiwan Province of China8.55.27.07.16.46.16.74.65.46.0-1.04.03.83.7
    Hong Kong SAR6.43.76.15.43.94.55.0-5.33.010.50.64.06.60.74.7
    Singapore7.06.712.711.48.07.78.50.15.99.9-0.24.011.0-2.13.0
    New Zealand1.83.35.25.84.33.62.2-0.13.83.71.82.91.82.32.7
    Memorandum
    European Union2.62.2-0.42.82.41.72.62.92.73.41.82.2
    Euro area2.72.1-0.82.32.31.52.42.92.73.51.82.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.25.26.57.77.56.35.8-2.47.98.21.04.35.41.64.7
    Real total domestic demand
    Advanced economies3.42.81.13.42.73.03.33.03.93.71.32.2
    Major advanced economies3.32.61.13.12.22.83.23.53.73.61.22.02.90.82.6
    United States3.43.83.34.42.53.74.75.45.04.81.42.63.50.83.6
    Japan3.90.90.41.32.13.81.0-1.40.91.10.2-0.12.5-0.60.5
    Germany3.01.2-1.12.31.70.30.62.42.62.01.92.1-0.22.4
    France2.21.8-1.61.91.80.70.74.23.03.61.82.13.11.22.4
    Italy2.71.3-5.11.72.00.92.73.13.02.31.01.91.21.62.6
    United Kingdom2.73.22.23.41.83.13.74.63.83.72.82.82.92.62.8
    Canada3.03.01.63.21.81.26.12.34.04.52.52.82.74.70.4
    Other advanced economies4.03.31.04.84.53.83.61.14.94.41.43.0
    Memorandum
    European Union2.82.1-1.62.42.11.42.33.93.33.11.52.2
    Euro area2.81.8-2.22.12.11.12.03.83.33.01.22.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.44.16.18.57.86.84.0-9.27.56.7-0.13.9

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Based on revised national accounts for 1988 onward.

    Table 3.Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1983–921993–20021993199419951996199719981999200020012002
    Private consumer expenditure
    Advanced economies3.32.81.93.02.62.72.83.04.03.62.22.3
    Major advanced economies3.22.71.92.82.32.42.63.43.83.42.32.2
    United States3.43.73.43.83.03.23.64.85.04.82.82.6
    Japan3.61.22.02.51.51.91.10.21.20.50.70.5
    Germany3.11.50.11.02.01.00.61.83.11.51.82.3
    France1.81.7-0.10.71.51.30.13.63.22.72.41.9
    Italy2.91.5-3.71.51.71.23.23.12.32.91.31.9
    United Kingdom3.03.32.92.91.73.63.94.04.43.73.02.9
    Canada2.83.01.83.02.12.64.63.03.43.63.72.6
    Other advanced economies3.83.31.84.13.83.93.61.84.94.42.02.9
    Memorandum
    European Union2.72.1-0.41.71.82.02.13.43.42.82.12.3
    Euro area2.71.9-0.91.31.91.61.83.23.32.71.92.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.24.87.18.07.06.65.1-4.57.46.61.43.9
    Public consumption
    Advanced economies2.61.70.91.01.11.71.41.62.42.52.32.2
    Major advanced economies2.41.60.70.90.81.21.11.32.52.62.42.2
    United States2.41.4-0.40.20.51.81.42.22.82.82.5
    Japan3.12.93.22.84.32.81.31.94.03.62.22.4
    Germany1.71.10.12.41.51.80.41.21.61.21.0-0.3
    France2.51.84.30.52.22.1-0.12.02.31.92.4
    Italy2.50.5-0.2-0.8-2.11.10.30.41.61.71.31.5
    United Kingdom1.21.7-0.81.41.61.7-1.41.14.02.33.83.8
    Canada2.40.7-1.3-0.6-1.4-0.81.82.62.23.01.6
    Other advanced economies3.72.22.01.32.13.62.42.72.02.32.02.1
    Memorandum
    European Union2.21.51.01.00.81.60.81.42.41.91.91.6
    Euro area2.41.41.31.00.71.61.31.42.11.81.51.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.42.63.70.82.68.03.31.8-0.72.51.52.4
    Gross fixed capital formation
    Advanced economies4.03.84.64.05.75.75.45.25.10.42.2
    Major advanced economies3.93.80.24.23.15.95.66.15.54.90.41.8
    United States3.96.55.77.35.48.48.810.27.86.71.13.7
    Japan5.1-0.6-3.1-1.20.17.30.7-4.2-0.80.6-2.3-3.0
    Germany3.70.3-4.54.0-0.7-0.80.63.04.22.3-3.2-1.2
    France2.52.1-6.61.52.1-0.17.26.26.23.41.8
    Italy2.32.0-10.90.16.03.62.14.34.66.11.73.5
    United Kingdom3.64.00.83.62.94.97.510.15.42.80.91.4
    Canada2.64.5-2.07.5-2.24.415.22.47.46.82.84.2
    Other advanced economies4.84.1-0.86.47.45.36.12.64.16.00.43.5
    Memorandum
    European Union3.32.5-5.62.63.62.43.56.45.64.51.01.8
    Euro area3.32.1-6.62.23.31.82.75.65.64.70.81.7
    Newly industrialized Asian economies9.93.97.910.310.47.24.4-9.09.5-2.52.9
    Final domestic demand
    Advanced economies3.72.81.22.92.63.23.13.13.93.81.82.2
    Major advanced economies3.62.71.22.62.13.02.93.53.93.61.92.1
    United States3.33.93.13.82.93.74.35.35.25.02.42.8
    Japan3.90.90.61.51.53.61.0-0.81.11.00.1-0.1
    Germany5.91.2-1.02.01.30.70.51.93.01.60.51.0
    France2.11.8-0.40.81.21.30.63.43.53.32.52.0
    Italy2.71.4-4.50.81.71.72.42.82.63.31.42.2
    United Kingdom2.73.11.82.71.93.43.54.54.53.32.82.8
    Canada2.72.80.72.80.72.05.52.64.14.03.32.8
    Other advanced economies4.03.31.34.24.34.23.91.84.14.51.62.9
    Memorandum
    European Union3.52.1-1.21.71.92.02.13.63.73.01.82.1
    Euro area3.71.9-1.71.41.91.61.93.33.63.01.61.9
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.44.26.77.87.67.14.5-5.64.07.00.33.5
    Stock building1
    Advanced economies0.1-0.10.50.1-0.20.2-0.6
    Major advanced economies0.1-0.10.5-0.20.30.1-0.2-0.7
    United States0.1-0.10.7-0.50.40.2-0.2-0.1-1.1-0.2
    Japan-0.2-0.20.60.3-0.6-0.20.1
    Germany0.10.1-0.10.30.3-0.50.5-0.40.4-0.50.8
    France0.1-1.21.00.5-0.60.10.8-0.40.3-0.70.1
    Italy-0.1-0.70.80.2-0.70.30.30.4-1.0-0.4-0.3
    United Kingdom0.10.40.7-0.40.30.1-0.70.4
    Canada0.20.20.90.41.1-0.70.7-0.3-0.10.5-0.8
    Other advanced economies0.1-0.30.60.2-0.3-0.2-0.60.6-0.1-0.10.1
    Memorandum
    European Union-0.40.70.2-0.50.10.4-0.30.1-0.30.2
    Euro area0.1-0.60.60.3-0.50.10.4-0.2-0.30.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies0.1-0.2-0.60.70.3-0.3-0.6-3.32.7-0.3-0.30.4
    Foreign balance1
    Advanced economies-0.10.3-0.10.10.2-0.4-0.50.1-0.1
    Major advanced economies-0.1-0.20.20.2-0.10.1-0.8-0.8-0.3-0.2
    United States-0.1-0.5-0.6-0.40.1-0.1-0.3-1.3-1.1-0.9-0.3
    Japan0.10.1-0.2-0.5-0.41.00.3-0.10.4-0.60.3
    Germany-0.30.20.10.10.50.9-0.4-0.71.10.8-0.1
    France0.10.20.70.10.41.2-0.6-0.10.30.1
    Italy-0.30.54.30.61.00.2-0.6-1.2-1.30.60.80.1
    United Kingdom-0.4-0.50.10.91.0-0.5-0.3-2.0-1.5-0.8-0.8-0.6
    Canada-0.30.41.01.61.10.4-1.71.71.30.2-0.5-0.5
    Other advanced economies-0.10.51.0-0.1-0.10.10.71.00.31.20.40.3
    Memorandum
    European Union-0.20.21.20.40.40.20.4-1.0-0.60.40.3
    Euro area-0.20.31.40.30.20.40.5-0.8-0.60.60.50.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies0.21.40.6-0.80.1-0.31.96.51.82.80.90.7

    Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

    Table 4.Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real Per Capita GDP(Percent)
    Ten-Year Averages1
    1983–921993–20021993199419951996199719981999200020012002
    Unemployment rate
    Advanced economies7.06.77.57.47.17.16.96.86.45.86.06.2
    Major advanced economies6.96.57.27.06.76.86.66.36.15.75.96.3
    United States26.85.26.96.15.65.45.04.54.24.04.75.3
    Japan2.53.92.52.93.13.33.44.14.74.75.05.6
    Germany7.38.27.68.17.98.69.58.98.27.57.57.9
    France9.811.011.712.311.712.312.311.811.29.58.78.5
    Italy310.710.910.111.111.611.611.711.811.410.69.59.1
    United Kingdom9.07.310.49.78.78.27.16.36.05.65.25.3
    Canada9.78.711.410.49.49.69.18.37.66.87.47.3
    Other advanced economies7.27.58.68.78.28.17.88.17.36.26.36.1
    Spain18.918.622.724.222.922.220.818.815.914.113.012.6
    Netherlands7.95.16.57.67.16.65.54.13.22.83.63.9
    Belgium9.08.78.810.09.99.79.49.58.87.07.17.3
    Sweden2.76.58.28.07.78.18.06.55.64.74.14.1
    Austria3.54.04.03.83.94.34.44.53.93.73.73.6
    Denmark9.37.812.011.910.18.67.86.55.65.25.25.4
    Finland5.512.716.416.615.414.612.611.410.39.89.910.4
    Greece7.710.59.79.610.010.39.610.812.011.310.910.7
    Portugal6.75.55.56.87.27.36.75.04.44.03.94.1
    Ireland15.58.715.514.112.111.59.87.45.64.33.74.0
    Luxembourg1.52.92.12.73.03.33.33.32.92.62.72.6
    Switzerland0.93.54.54.74.24.75.23.92.71.91.81.9
    Norway3.84.26.15.55.04.94.13.23.23.43.33.3
    Israel7.78.310.07.86.96.77.78.58.98.89.08.6
    Iceland1.33.24.44.85.04.33.92.71.91.41.42.0
    Cyprus2.93.22.72.72.63.13.43.43.63.53.63.8
    Korea3.13.62.82.42.02.02.66.86.34.14.03.5
    Australia8.37.910.69.48.28.28.27.77.06.36.86.7
    Taiwan Province of China2.12.81.51.61.82.62.72.72.93.04.64.8
    Hong Kong SAR2.33.92.01.93.22.82.24.76.35.05.65.3
    Singapore3.32.82.72.62.72.01.83.23.53.13.23.1
    New Zealand6.66.89.58.26.36.16.77.56.86.05.55.7
    Memorandum
    European Union9.49.610.611.110.710.810.59.89.18.17.77.7
    Euro area9.710.210.711.511.211.411.410.89.98.88.48.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.83.42.42.22.12.22.55.45.33.84.34.0
    Growth in employment
    Advanced economies1.30.9-0.11.11.21.01.51.01.31.40.50.5
    Major advanced economies1.20.81.00.90.81.41.01.11.20.30.3
    United States1.81.41.52.31.51.52.31.51.51.30.20.6
    Japan1.3-0.10.20.10.10.51.1-0.7-0.8-0.2-0.6-0.7
    Germany0.90.2-1.4-0.20.1-0.3-0.21.11.21.60.1
    France0.20.8-1.20.10.80.10.51.41.42.41.60.4
    Italy0.40.1-4.1-1.6-0.60.50.41.11.31.91.50.6
    United Kingdom0.50.9-0.91.01.41.12.01.11.31.00.60.5
    Canada1.51.90.82.01.90.82.32.72.82.61.81.8
    Other advanced economies1.41.4-0.41.32.21.71.61.02.12.11.21.2
    Memorandum
    European Union0.60.7-1.9-0.20.80.71.01.81.72.00.90.5
    Euro area0.60.7-2.0-0.40.60.60.82.01.82.21.00.6
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.51.31.52.82.52.11.7-2.71.51.31.31.5
    Growth in real per capita GDP
    Advanced economies2.92.00.82.72.12.32.82.02.82.40.71.6
    Major advanced economies2.81.80.72.41.72.12.62.22.51.80.61.3
    United States2.42.11.53.01.72.63.43.33.30.90.41.3
    Japan3.40.70.20.71.33.11.7-1.30.61.4-0.70.1
    Germany5.11.3-1.82.11.40.51.22.01.83.10.81.8
    France1.81.6-1.31.41.40.71.53.12.63.81.71.7
    Italy2.31.80.51.92.71.01.81.81.62.91.82.1
    United Kingdom2.22.52.14.02.42.23.12.21.83.11.82.2
    Canada1.42.31.23.51.70.53.23.04.23.51.11.4
    Other advanced economies3.22.91.23.83.52.93.61.54.24.91.32.7
    Memorandum
    European Union3.02.0-0.52.42.11.42.32.72.43.51.72.1
    Euro area3.21.9-1.02.02.01.22.22.82.53.61.62.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies7.04.05.56.36.04.74.5-3.66.87.13.3

    Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

    The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the new survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

    New series starting in 1993, reflecting revisions in the labor force surveys and the definition of unemployment to bring data in line with those of other advanced economies.

    Table 5.Developing Countries: Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1983–921993–20021993199419951996199719981999200020012002
    Developing countries4.75.46.36.76.26.65.83.53.95.84.35.3
    Regional groups
    Africa2.03.10.52.32.95.63.13.32.52.83.84.4
    Sub-Sahara1.73.10.91.93.75.13.72.62.53.03.54.2
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa1.93.50.41.64.25.44.63.83.12.83.95.0
    Developing Asia7.37.29.49.79.08.36.54.06.16.85.86.2
    China10.29.213.512.610.59.68.87.87.18.07.57.1
    India5.46.15.06.97.77.34.95.86.86.04.55.7
    Other developing Asia5.34.26.36.97.76.73.8-5.23.65.03.14.5
    Middle East, Malta, and Turkey3.53.63.20.34.75.15.14.11.06.02.34.8
    Western Hemisphere2.33.24.05.01.73.65.32.30.24.21.73.6
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel2.63.00.50.13.03.84.13.31.34.94.54.2
    Nonfuel5.05.77.17.46.56.85.93.64.25.94.35.4
    of which, primary products2.64.43.95.36.55.75.73.22.23.83.34.8
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries4.85.56.56.96.36.65.93.64.05.84.45.4
    of which, official financing2.84.01.62.55.35.34.23.93.74.04.65.4
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–982.73.73.54.65.25.04.4-0.42.14.53.44.4
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries2.14.41.92.86.26.15.23.93.83.84.45.5
    Middle East and north Africa3.03.71.42.32.95.23.74.73.05.04.74.6
    Memorandum
    Real per capita GDP
    Developing countries2.53.84.45.04.54.84.22.02.34.32.93.9
    Regional groups
    Africa-0.80.7-2.1-0.20.93.10.70.9-0.10.31.41.9
    Developing Asia5.45.87.68.17.56.85.22.64.95.64.65.0
    Middle East, Malta, and Turkey0.31.50.9-1.42.22.62.82.4-0.93.20.32.8
    Western Hemisphere0.21.62.23.30.31.83.70.7-1.73.20.22.1
    Table 6.Developing Countries—by Country: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1983–9219931994199519961997199819992000
    Africa2.00.52.32.95.63.13.32.52.8
    Algeria1.9-2.1-0.93.83.81.15.13.22.4
    Angola2.1-24.01.37.17.96.23.13.42.1
    Benin1.63.54.44.65.55.74.55.05.3
    Botswana9.72.13.54.55.76.75.96.17.7
    Burkina Faso3.6-0.81.24.06.04.86.26.22.2
    Burundi4.0-5.9-3.7-7.3-8.40.44.5-0.8
    Cameroon0.3-3.2-2.53.35.05.15.04.44.2
    Cape Verde1.312.711.53.83.84.77.67.96.7
    Central African Republic0.53.12.67.6-4.93.95.53.52.6
    Chad6.3-2.15.71.32.44.56.70.50.6
    Comoros1.73.0-5.33.6-1.34.21.21.9-1.1
    Congo, Dem. Rep. of-1.4-13.5-3.90.7-1.3-5.6-1.6-10.4-4.3
    Congo, Rep. of5.8-1.0-5.54.04.3-0.63.7-3.04.5
    Côte d’Ivoire0.6-0.22.07.16.96.25.81.6-2.3
    Djibouti0.1-6.7-0.9-3.5-4.1-0.70.12.20.7
    Equatorial Guinea2.46.35.114.329.171.222.050.116.9
    Eritrea-2.59.82.96.87.93.90.8-8.2
    Ethiopia-0.212.01.66.210.65.2-1.26.35.3
    Gabon1.93.93.75.03.65.73.5-9.6-1.0
    Gambia, The3.26.13.8-3.46.14.93.56.45.6
    Ghana4.15.03.34.04.64.24.74.43.7
    Guinea3.85.54.35.14.24.84.93.91.8
    Guinea-Bissau2.62.13.24.44.65.5-28.17.89.3
    Kenya3.40.42.74.44.22.11.61.3-0.2
    Lesotho5.33.73.75.99.54.8-3.02.43.3
    Liberia
    Madagascar1.22.11.72.13.73.94.74.8
    Malawi2.69.7-10.316.77.33.83.34.01.7
    Mali4.1-4.72.67.04.36.74.96.64.3
    Mauritania4.85.54.64.65.53.23.74.15.1
    Mauritius6.26.74.53.85.25.86.05.93.6
    Morocco3.5-1.010.4-6.612.2-2.26.8-0.70.8
    Mozambique, Rep. of8.77.54.37.111.012.67.52.1
    Namibia2.516.97.70.72.89.75.45.3-0.4
    Niger-0.71.44.02.63.42.810.4-0.63.0
    Nigeria3.82.2-0.62.66.43.11.91.13.8
    Rwanda2.5-8.1-50.234.415.812.89.55.95.6
    São Tomé and Príncipe-0.51.12.22.01.51.02.52.53.0
    Senegal1.6-2.22.95.25.15.05.75.15.6
    Seychelles5.26.5-0.8-0.64.74.32.3-3.01.2
    Sierra Leone-1.40.13.5-10.0-24.8-17.6-0.8-8.13.8
    Somalia
    South Africa0.71.23.23.14.22.50.71.93.1
    Sudan1.76.22.03.010.510.26.15.18.3
    Swaziland6.63.33.53.54.23.83.53.52.5
    Tanzania3.41.21.63.64.53.53.34.85.1
    Togo1.4-16.917.56.99.74.3-2.12.7-0.5
    Tunisia4.22.23.22.47.15.44.86.25.0
    Uganda3.48.66.411.98.65.14.67.94.4
    Zambia0.7-0.1-13.3-2.56.53.4-1.92.43.6
    Zimbabwe2.51.17.1-0.68.73.72.5-0.2-5.1
    Developing Asia7.39.49.79.08.36.54.06.16.8
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh4.64.34.54.85.05.35.05.46.0
    Bhutan6.66.16.47.46.17.35.55.96.1
    Brunei Darussalam0.51.83.11.03.6-4.02.53.0
    Cambodia4.03.96.75.53.71.85.04.0
    China10.213.512.610.59.68.87.87.18.0
    Fiji2.54.15.42.52.7-0.91.48.04.9
    India5.45.06.97.77.34.95.86.86.0
    Indonesia6.37.37.58.28.04.5-13.10.84.8
    Kiribati0.20.87.26.54.11.66.62.1-1.7
    Lao P.D. Republic4.75.98.17.16.96.54.05.05.7
    Malaysia6.69.99.29.810.07.3-7.46.18.3
    Maldives10.06.26.67.28.811.27.98.55.6
    Myanmar1.05.96.87.26.45.75.810.95.5
    Nepal4.63.88.23.55.35.03.04.46.5
    Pakistan5.82.74.44.92.91.83.14.13.9
    Papua New Guinea3.518.25.9-3.37.7-3.9-3.83.10.3
    Philippines1.02.14.44.75.85.2-0.63.44.0
    Samoa14.31.7-0.16.27.30.82.53.56.8
    Solomon Islands2.82.05.410.53.5-2.30.5-0.5-1.0
    Sri Lanka4.16.95.65.53.86.44.74.36.0
    Thailand8.48.49.09.35.9-1.4-10.84.24.4
    Tonga1.83.75.04.8-1.4-4.4-1.51.5
    Vanuatu2.84.51.32.30.40.66.0-2.54.0
    Vietnam5.98.18.89.59.38.23.54.25.5
    Middle East, Malta, and Turkey3.53.20.34.75.15.14.11.06.0
    Bahrain3.512.9-0.23.94.13.14.84.03.9
    Egypt4.52.53.94.75.05.35.76.05.1
    Iran, Islamic Republic of2.62.10.92.95.92.73.73.15.8
    Iraq
    Jordan9.05.65.06.42.13.12.93.13.9
    Kuwait-1.746.01.79.78.6-2.51.7-0.63.6
    Lebanon2.27.08.06.54.04.03.51.0-0.7
    Libya0.6-10.6-2.70.95.2-1.22.92.53.0
    Malta4.74.55.76.24.04.93.44.04.7
    Oman7.26.13.84.82.96.22.7-1.04.9
    Qatar0.2-0.62.32.94.825.46.22.410.5
    Saudi Arabia2.6-0.60.50.51.42.01.7-0.84.5
    Syrian Arab Republic2.85.07.75.84.41.87.6-1.82.5
    Turkey5.07.7-4.78.16.97.63.1-5.07.5
    United Arab Emirates2.12.28.57.96.26.74.33.95.0
    Yemen, Republic of0.4-3.634.75.98.14.90.65.2
    Western Hemisphere2.34.05.01.73.65.32.30.24.2
    Antigua and Barbuda6.85.16.2-5.06.15.63.93.22.5
    Argentina1.76.35.8-2.85.58.13.8-3.4-0.5
    Bahamas, The2.01.70.90.34.23.33.05.95.0
    Barbados0.60.84.03.11.76.44.11.33.2
    Belize6.13.31.83.32.03.63.45.610.3
    Bolivia1.24.34.74.74.45.05.20.42.4
    Brazil2.04.95.94.22.73.30.20.84.5
    Chile5.97.05.710.67.47.43.9-1.15.4
    Colombia3.75.45.85.22.13.40.6-4.12.8
    Costa Rica4.46.34.94.00.35.88.08.04.5
    Dominica4.31.92.11.63.12.02.40.90.5
    Dominican Republic2.72.94.34.77.28.37.38.07.8
    Ecuador2.42.04.42.32.03.40.4-7.32.3
    El Salvador2.77.46.06.41.84.33.22.03.0
    Grenada4.2-1.23.33.13.14.07.37.56.4
    Guatemala2.03.94.04.93.04.15.13.53.3
    Guyana-0.18.28.55.07.96.2-1.73.02.5
    Haiti-0.7-2.4-8.34.42.71.13.12.11.2
    Honduras3.26.2-1.34.13.65.12.9-1.96.2
    Jamaica2.61.51.00.2-1.5-1.7-0.51.5
    Mexico1.82.04.4-6.25.26.85.03.76.9
    Netherlands Antilles0.75.35.90.62.31.4-2.1-1.9-2.3
    Nicaragua-1.8-0.23.34.25.04.94.26.75.9
    Panama1.75.52.91.82.44.44.04.14.5
    Paraguay2.84.13.14.71.32.6-0.40.5-0.4
    Peru-1.04.812.88.62.56.7-0.50.93.1
    St. Kitts and Nevis5.06.75.13.76.56.81.12.82.6
    St. Lucia7.12.02.14.11.40.62.93.02.0
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines6.12.3-2.08.31.23.15.74.03.5
    Suriname0.2-9.5-5.47.16.75.61.95.02.9
    Trinidad and Tobago-3.1-1.43.64.03.83.14.86.85.6
    Uruguay2.52.77.3-1.45.65.04.5-2.8-1.3
    Venezuela2.40.3-2.34.0-0.26.40.2-6.13.2

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    Table 7.Countries in Transition: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1983–9219931994199519961997199819992000
    Central and eastern Europe-0.33.05.63.92.52.32.03.8
    Albania-3.69.69.48.99.1-7.08.07.37.8
    Bosnia and Herzegovina32.485.839.910.010.04.6
    Bulgaria9.5-12.1-7.84.3-10.9-7.03.52.45.8
    Croatia-8.05.95.96.06.62.5-0.43.7
    Czech Republic0.12.25.94.3-0.8-1.2-0.42.9
    Estonia-8.2-1.84.64.010.45.0-0.76.9
    Hungary-1.0-0.62.91.51.34.64.94.55.2
    Latvia-14.90.6-0.83.38.63.91.16.6
    Lithuania-16.2-9.83.34.77.35.1-3.93.3
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of-7.5-1.8-1.11.21.42.92.75.0
    Poland0.94.35.26.86.06.84.84.14.1
    Romania1.53.97.33.9-6.1-4.8-2.31.6
    Slovak Republic-3.74.96.76.26.24.11.92.2
    Slovenia2.85.34.13.54.63.85.24.9
    Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia-12.6-14.6-5.5-3.31.0-2.84.67.8
    Russia-13.0-13.5-4.2-3.40.9-4.95.48.3
    Excluding Russia-11.8-17.0-8.6-3.01.41.62.86.8
    Armenia-14.15.46.95.93.37.33.36.0
    Azerbaijan-23.1-19.7-11.81.35.810.07.411.1
    Belarus-7.0-12.6-10.42.811.48.33.45.9
    Georgia-29.3-10.42.610.510.62.93.01.8
    Kazakhstan-9.2-12.6-8.30.51.6-1.92.89.5
    Kyrgyz Republic-15.5-19.8-5.87.110.02.13.75.0
    Moldova-1.1-31.1-1.4-5.91.6-6.5-3.41.9
    Mongolia1.6-2.92.36.32.44.03.53.21.1
    Tajikistan-11.1-21.4-12.5-4.41.75.33.78.3
    Turkmenistan-10.0-17.3-7.2-6.7-11.35.016.017.6
    Ukraine-14.2-22.9-12.2-9.8-3.3-1.9-0.25.8
    Uzbekistan-2.3-4.2-0.91.62.54.34.34.0
    Memorandum
    EU accession candidates2.30.76.44.74.12.6-0.14.9

    Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only, as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

    Table 8.Summary of Inflation(Percent)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1983–921993–20021993199419951996199719981999200020012002
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies4.51.82.72.22.31.91.71.40.81.41.71.6
    United States3.32.02.42.12.21.91.91.21.42.32.32.1
    European Union5.52.33.52.73.12.61.92.01.41.52.22.0
    Japan1.8-0.60.50.1-0.4-0.60.3-0.1-1.4-1.7-1.5-1.1
    Other advanced economies7.82.23.83.33.43.02.21.51.41.71.8
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies4.62.23.12.62.62.42.11.51.42.32.41.7
    United States4.02.63.02.62.82.92.31.52.23.43.22.2
    European Union5.12.43.83.02.92.51.81.51.42.32.61.8
    Japan1.80.21.20.7-0.10.11.70.6-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7
    Other advanced economies7.92.73.43.33.83.22.42.61.02.22.72.1
    Developing countries46.417.649.255.323.215.49.910.56.86.05.95.1
    Regional groups
    Africa22.422.139.054.735.330.214.210.811.513.612.68.0
    Developing Asia9.97.010.816.013.28.34.87.72.51.92.83.3
    Middle East, Malta, and Turkey22.926.429.437.339.129.627.727.623.219.218.914.5
    Western Hemisphere170.237.2194.6200.336.021.212.99.98.88.16.24.9
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel15.322.929.236.242.635.119.417.216.212.913.011.5
    Nonfuel51.617.151.857.721.313.58.99.95.85.35.34.5
    of which, primary products75.223.046.762.929.727.015.914.112.213.312.07.3
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries48.418.151.157.523.815.810.210.86.96.16.15.2
    of which, official financing37.320.037.564.330.022.611.210.610.710.48.85.5
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–98109.741.7200.5221.640.121.111.918.413.311.011.17.6
    Countries in transition42.477.8635.8274.2133.842.527.321.843.920.016.410.7
    Central and eastern Europe25.679.945.624.723.341.817.110.912.68.77.4
    Commonwealth of Independent
    States and Mongolia112.31,246.1508.1235.655.919.125.070.425.021.612.9
    Russia95.0878.8307.5198.047.914.727.885.720.822.112.9
    Excluding Russia154.22,440.91,334.5338.875.529.619.341.834.620.513.0
    Memorandum
    Median inflation rate
    Advanced economies4.72.23.02.42.52.11.81.71.52.72.52.2
    Developing countries9.46.69.710.610.07.36.25.83.94.24.14.4
    Countries in transition95.872.3472.3132.140.124.114.810.08.09.56.95.5
    Table 9.Advanced Economies: GDP Deflators and Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1983–921993–20021993199419951996199719981999200020012002200020012002
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies4.51.82.72.22.31.91.71.40.81.41.71.6
    Major advanced economies3.71.52.31.81.91.71.51.10.81.31.51.51.31.61.7
    United States3.32.02.42.12.21.91.91.21.42.32.32.12.42.32.1
    Japan1.8-0.60.50.1-0.4-0.60.3-0.1-1.4-1.7-1.5-1.1-1.9-1.4-0.4
    Germany2.81.43.72.52.01.00.71.10.5-0.41.41.2-0.31.81.3
    France4.41.32.41.81.71.41.20.90.30.81.51.41.11.61.3
    Italy8.33.13.93.55.05.32.42.71.62.22.42.02.22.82.0
    United Kingdom5.62.52.71.52.53.32.93.02.31.81.93.01.31.83.4
    Canada3.61.71.41.22.31.71.1-0.41.43.72.92.03.42.82.0
    Other advanced economies7.92.74.43.83.93.02.52.30.81.72.22.0
    Spain8.23.44.53.94.93.52.22.32.93.53.52.6
    Netherlands1.42.41.92.31.81.22.01.71.73.74.82.7
    Belgium3.11.63.71.91.81.21.31.61.01.21.50.9
    Sweden6.81.82.62.43.51.41.70.90.50.81.91.8
    Austria3.21.62.82.82.31.31.20.70.91.21.71.5
    Denmark4.52.21.41.71.82.52.21.93.03.72.12.1
    Finland5.32.02.32.04.1-0.22.13.0-0.13.42.31.7
    Greece17.36.814.511.211.27.36.85.12.83.33.13.0
    Portugal16.14.57.06.17.43.83.14.33.42.64.23.1
    Ireland4.33.85.21.73.02.24.15.94.24.34.23.7
    Luxembourg3.42.20.84.94.31.73.31.51.11.41.51.5
    Switzerland3.31.12.71.61.10.4-0.20.20.61.31.41.6
    Norway4.13.82.1-0.23.14.33.0-0.76.316.33.01.4
    Israel68.27.511.313.49.411.58.58.06.31.51.24.6
    Iceland23.83.72.31.92.81.93.55.33.83.66.45.6
    Cyprus5.13.14.95.13.61.92.52.32.14.12.22.5
    Korea6.93.37.17.77.13.93.15.1-2.0-1.61.61.9
    Australia5.81.51.60.81.52.21.60.11.03.32.11.4
    Taiwan Province of China2.21.33.62.02.03.11.72.6-1.4-1.6-0.31.3
    Hong Kong SAR8.01.98.56.92.65.95.80.4-5.4-6.60.11.8
    Singapore2.21.13.32.92.60.70.8-2.0-2.31.81.51.7
    New Zealand7.31.72.31.42.12.00.80.8-0.61.93.32.6
    Memorandum
    European Union5.52.33.52.73.12.61.92.01.41.52.22.0
    Euro area5.52.23.82.93.22.51.71.81.21.42.21.8
    Newly industrialized Asian economies5.42.46.05.54.73.72.93.2-2.3-1.90.81.7
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies4.62.23.12.62.62.42.11.51.42.32.41.7
    Major advanced economies3.92.02.82.22.32.22.01.31.42.32.31.62.41.91.7
    United States4.02.63.02.62.82.92.31.52.23.43.22.23.42.92.3
    Japan1.80.21.20.7-0.10.11.70.6-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-1.30.2
    Germany22.31.94.52.71.71.21.50.60.72.12.51.32.42.11.3
    France4.41.52.11.71.82.11.30.70.61.81.81.12.01.61.0
    Italy7.43.04.64.15.24.01.92.01.72.62.61.62.82.21.7
    United Kingdom35.32.63.02.42.83.02.82.72.32.12.22.42.12.42.5
    Canada4.41.81.80.21.91.61.61.01.72.73.12.33.12.92.0
    Other advanced economies7.72.94.24.13.83.22.32.41.32.43.02.2
    Memorandum
    European Union5.12.43.83.02.92.51.81.51.42.32.61.8
    Euro area5.02.44.03.23.02.51.71.31.22.42.71.7
    Newly industrialized Asian economies4.33.24.65.74.64.33.44.41.22.12.1

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Based on the revised consumer price index for united Germany introduced in September 1995.

    Retail price index excluding mortgage interest.

    Table 10.Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1983–921993–20021993199419951996199719981999200020012002
    Hourly earnings
    Advanced economies6.13.54.23.43.23.02.83.33.34.44.52.9
    Major advanced economies5.23.23.82.82.72.42.43.43.04.34.82.6
    United States4.13.72.82.82.11.31.95.44.06.56.93.6
    Japan3.91.22.72.32.41.73.10.9-0.7-0.11.2-1.8
    Germany5.23.36.92.44.14.71.52.12.82.72.83.0
    France7.23.26.62.21.43.01.72.65.03.42.83.2
    Italy9.93.35.43.14.75.84.2-1.42.92.73.02.7
    United Kingdom8.44.54.75.04.44.34.24.54.14.64.84.1
    Canada5.02.42.01.62.21.02.22.11.33.54.53.6
    Other advanced economies10.24.65.95.95.25.74.33.04.74.53.23.8
    Memorandum
    European Union7.53.75.93.53.94.43.12.43.53.43.63.4
    Euro area7.43.56.23.13.84.42.81.93.43.23.33.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies13.46.59.211.47.910.25.60.99.37.00.74.0
    Productivity
    Advanced economies3.33.42.14.83.93.14.42.54.15.91.51.7
    Major advanced economies3.33.31.74.43.83.14.32.73.86.11.51.4
    United States3.03.71.93.03.93.54.25.44.66.71.62.0
    Japan2.91.8-1.03.34.73.84.8-4.23.66.8-1.4-2.1
    Germany3.95.13.09.04.56.07.34.83.16.63.53.2
    France3.43.70.76.86.01.05.65.52.95.41.51.8
    Italy3.32.50.66.03.63.72.3-1.52.04.52.31.7
    United Kingdom4.82.34.94.5-0.4-1.00.90.63.85.42.61.7
    Canada2.62.24.94.51.5-1.12.81.61.23.43.1
    Other advanced economies3.33.84.06.74.02.84.51.65.54.81.72.5
    Memorandum
    European Union3.63.63.07.33.62.54.32.72.85.02.42.2
    Euro area3.43.82.47.64.43.44.93.12.74.92.42.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies7.96.14.77.17.96.37.1-1.614.810.60.83.9
    Unit labor costs
    Advanced economies2.80.12.0-1.4-0.7-1.50.9-0.7-1.42.91.2
    Major advanced economies1.92.1-1.5-1.1-0.7-1.80.8-0.7-1.73.31.2
    United States1.00.10.8-0.2-1.7-2.1-2.2-0.5-0.25.31.6
    Japan1.0-0.63.7-1.0-2.2-2.0-1.65.3-4.1-6.42.70.3
    Germany1.2-1.73.8-6.1-0.4-1.2-5.5-2.6-0.3-3.6-0.7-0.2
    France3.6-0.55.9-4.4-4.31.9-3.7-2.82.1-1.91.31.4
    Italy6.40.84.8-2.71.02.01.90.20.9-1.70.71.0
    United Kingdom3.42.2-0.20.54.85.33.33.90.3-0.82.12.4
    Canada2.30.2-2.8-2.80.72.1-0.62.2-0.32.21.10.5
    Other advanced economies6.80.81.7-0.80.92.6-0.31.5-0.4-0.31.51.3
    Memorandum
    European Union3.90.22.9-3.50.41.9-1.1-0.20.7-1.41.11.2
    Euro area3.9-0.23.8-4.1-0.51.0-1.9-1.10.7-1.60.90.9
    Newly industrialized Asian economies4.30.23.52.6-1.02.6-1.52.7-4.1-3.20.2
    Table 11.Developing Countries: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1983-921993-20021993199419951996199719981999200020012002
    Developing countries46.417.649.255.323.215.49.910.56.86.05.95.1
    Regional groups
    Africa22.422.139.054.735.330.214.210.811.513.612.68.0
    Sub-Sahara26.326.847.968.540.936.517.412.914.517.515.69.0
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa34.639.873.7121.657.458.724.716.921.727.020.09.9
    Developing Asia9.97.010.816.013.28.34.87.72.51.92.83.3
    China7.66.414.724.117.18.32.8-0.8-1.40.41.01.5
    India9.37.46.410.210.29.07.213.24.74.03.65.5
    Other developing Asia13.08.58.38.19.17.76.822.19.13.36.25.4
    Middle East, Malta, and Turkey22.926.429.437.339.129.627.727.623.219.218.914.5
    Western Hemisphere170.237.2194.6200.336.021.212.99.98.88.16.24.9
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel15.322.929.236.242.635.119.417.216.212.913.011.5
    Nonfuel51.617.151.857.721.313.58.99.95.85.35.34.5
    of which, primary products75.223.046.762.929.727.015.914.112.213.312.07.3
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries48.418.151.157.523.815.810.210.86.96.16.15.2
    of which, official financing37.320.037.564.330.022.611.210.610.710.48.85.5
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994-98109.741.7200.5221.640.121.111.918.413.311.011.17.6
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries51.432.360.392.049.646.521.117.516.918.914.57.7
    Middle East and north Africa15.513.719.521.824.216.711.210.510.17.88.38.0
    Memorandum
    Median
    Developing countries9.46.69.710.610.07.36.25.83.94.24.14.4
    Regional groups
    Africa9.58.69.824.711.87.77.85.84.25.34.74.5
    Developing Asia8.16.47.68.47.97.66.48.44.43.64.35.1
    Middle East, Malta, and Turkey6.63.96.44.96.46.83.13.02.21.52.52.8
    Western Hemisphere14.56.610.78.310.27.47.05.13.54.75.13.9
    Table 12.Developing Countries—by Country: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1983-92
    19931994199519961997199819992000
    Africa22.439.054.735.330.214.210.811.513.6
    Algeria12.320.529.029.818.75.75.02.60.3
    Angola23.91,379.5949.82,672.24,146.0221.5107.4248.2325.0
    Benin1.60.438.514.54.93.85.80.34.2
    Botswana12.414.310.510.510.18.86.57.28.5
    Burkina Faso0.40.624.77.86.12.35.0-1.1-0.2
    Burundi7.19.714.719.426.431.112.53.631.9
    Cameroon4.8-3.712.725.86.65.12.90.8
    Cape Verde10.05.83.38.46.08.64.44.4-2.5
    Central African Republic1.4-2.924.519.23.71.6-1.9-1.53.1
    Chad2.431.441.39.111.85.94.4-8.03.1
    Comoros1.12.025.37.12.03.03.53.54.5
    Congo, Dem. Rep. of200.51,893.123,760.5541.8616.8198.5106.9269.6553.7
    Congo, Rep. of-1.25.042.98.610.213.21.83.13.0
    Cote d’Ivoire3.82.126.014.32.74.24.50.72.5
    Djibouti5.34.46.54.93.52.52.22.02.4
    Equatorial Guinea13.01.638.911.46.03.03.06.56.0
    Eritrea4.611.610.79.31.316.68.39.4
    Ethiopia7.310.01.213.40.9-6.43.63.94.2
    Gabon2.20.636.110.04.54.12.3-0.71.0
    Gambia, The17.75.94.04.04.83.11.12.52.5
    Ghana33.224.924.959.546.627.919.312.425.0
    Guinea28.27.24.25.63.01.95.14.66.8
    Guinea-Bissau61.948.215.245.450.749.18.0-2.19.1
    Kenya13.045.927.94.09.09.29.36.17.1
    Lesotho14.313.87.29.99.18.57.88.76.1
    Liberia
    Madagascar14.09.339.049.019.84.56.29.911.9
    Malawi17.122.834.783.137.79.129.844.829.6
    Mali0.8-0.624.812.46.5-0.74.1-1.2-0.7
    Mauritania8.29.34.16.54.74.58.04.13.3
    Mauritius6.98.99.46.05.97.95.47.95.3
    Morocco6.45.25.16.13.01.02.70.71.9
    Mozambique, Rep. of48.142.363.154.444.66.40.62.912.7
    Namibia12.88.510.810.08.08.86.28.64.5
    Niger-0.8-0.624.811.25.32.94.52.92.9
    Nigeria22.357.257.072.829.38.510.06.66.9
    Rwanda5.312.564.022.08.911.76.8-2.43.9
    Sao Tome and Principe24.625.551.236.842.069.042.116.311.0
    Senegal3.4-0.632.08.12.81.71.10.80.7
    Seychelles2.61.31.8-0.3-1.10.62.76.36.7
    Sierra Leone81.222.224.226.023.114.935.534.1-0.9
    Somalia
    South Africa14.69.98.88.77.38.66.95.25.4
    Sudan60.2101.3115.568.4132.846.717.116.08.0
    Swaziland13.012.013.812.36.47.97.55.99.9
    Tanzania29.923.637.126.521.016.112.66.36.2
    Togo1.72.448.56.42.55.5-1.42.0-2.5
    Tunisia7.44.04.56.33.83.73.12.73.0
    Uganda92.330.06.56.17.57.85.8-0.26.3
    Zambia67.5183.354.634.943.124.424.526.826.1
    Zimbabwe17.827.622.222.621.418.832.358.255.7
    Developing Asia9.910.816.013.28.34.87.72.51.9
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh9.23.06.17.73.95.18.56.42.3
    Bhutan9.911.27.09.58.86.510.66.84.8
    Brunei Darussalam4.32.46.02.01.7-0.4-0.11.5
    Cambodia114.39.41.37.28.014.84.01.0
    China7.614.724.117.18.32.8-0.8-1.40.4
    Fiji6.15.20.60.34.93.45.92.02.4
    India9.36.410.210.29.07.213.24.74.0
    Indonesia8.19.78.59.47.96.258.020.73.8
    Kiribati2.76.15.34.1-1.52.24.70.41.0
    Lao P.D. Republic34.76.36.819.413.019.387.4134.027.1
    Malaysia2.63.64.13.53.52.75.32.71.5
    Maldives6.720.13.45.56.27.6-1.43.0-1.1
    Myanmar16.833.622.428.920.033.949.111.410.3
    Nepal8.68.98.97.77.28.18.311.43.4
    Pakistan7.310.012.412.310.411.46.24.14.4
    Papua New Guinea5.65.02.917.311.63.913.614.915.6
    Philippines13.56.98.48.09.05.99.76.64.3
    Samoa3.41.712.1-2.95.46.92.20.31.0
    Solomon Islands11.29.213.39.611.88.112.48.36.0
    Sri Lanka11.711.78.47.715.99.69.44.76.2
    Thailand3.73.45.15.85.95.68.10.31.5
    Tonga10.03.12.40.52.62.03.13.95.3
    Vanuatu6.33.62.32.20.92.93.22.02.0
    Vietnam124.68.49.517.45.73.27.34.1-1.7
    Middle East, Malta, and Turkey22.929.437.339.129.627.727.623.219.2
    Bahrain-0.22.60.43.1-0.11.5-0.3-1.6-0.4
    Egypt18.611.09.09.47.16.24.73.82.8
    Iran, Islamic Republic of18.622.935.249.423.217.320.020.412.6
    Iraq
    Jordan5.03.33.62.36.53.03.10.60.7
    Kuwait8.10.42.52.73.60.70.13.01.7
    Lebanon89.924.78.010.68.97.74.5-2.7-0.4
    Libya7.77.510.78.34.03.63.72.6-3.0
    Malta1.04.04.14.02.03.12.42.12.4
    Oman1.41.1-0.7-1.10.3-0.2-0.50.5-1.0
    Qatar3.0-0.91.43.07.12.72.92.22.4
    Saudi Arabia-0.40.80.65.00.9-0.4-0.2-1.3-0.6
    Syrian Arab Republic20.623.63.97.78.91.9-0.4-2.11.1
    Turkey52.466.1106.393.782.385.784.664.954.9
    United Arab Emirates3.65.25.74.43.02.92.02.11.4
    Yemen, Republic of62.471.362.540.04.611.59.28.0
    Western Hemisphere170.2194.6200.336.021.212.99.98.88.1
    Antigua and Barbuda3.63.16.52.73.00.33.31.62.0
    Argentina346.310.74.23.40.20.50.9-1.2-0.9
    Bahamas, The5.12.71.32.11.40.51.31.31.6
    Barbados4.51.2-0.11.92.47.7-1.31.62.6
    Belize2.91.42.52.96.31.1-0.9-1.10.7
    Bolivia198.78.57.910.212.44.77.72.24.6
    Brazil475.81,927.42,075.866.015.86.93.24.97.0
    Chile21.112.711.48.27.46.15.13.33.8
    Colombia24.222.422.820.920.818.518.710.99.2
    Costa Rica19.39.813.523.217.613.311.710.111.5
    Dominica4.01.61.31.72.40.91.61.9
    Dominican Republic27.15.38.312.55.48.34.86.57.7
    Ecuador43.745.027.322.924.430.636.152.296.2
    El Salvador19.018.510.610.19.84.52.50.62.5
    Grenada3.22.82.62.22.81.31.40.52.2
    Guatemala15.513.412.58.411.09.26.65.36.0
    Guyana38.412.012.412.27.13.64.67.56.6
    Haiti10.118.837.430.221.916.212.78.111.5
    Honduras10.210.718.229.523.820.213.711.610.5
    Jamaica27.624.333.221.721.59.18.16.37.7
    Mexico59.39.87.035.034.420.615.916.69.5
    Netherlands Antilles2.51.91.92.83.43.11.20.84.7
    Nicaragua910.320.47.711.211.69.213.011.29.7
    Panama1.00.51.30.91.31.30.61.31.4
    Paraguay23.718.320.613.49.87.011.66.89.0
    Peru383.748.623.711.111.58.57.33.53.8
    St. Kitts and Nevis2.51.81.43.02.08.73.73.5
    St. Lucia3.10.82.75.90.90.12.83.54.0
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines3.44.31.01.74.40.42.11.00.8
    Suriname17.9143.4368.5235.5-0.87.319.098.859.1
    Trinidad and Tobago9.613.13.75.33.33.65.63.43.5
    Uruguay73.354.345.042.628.620.010.95.74.8
    Venezuela27.438.160.859.999.950.035.823.616.2

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    Table 13.Countries in Transition: Consumer Prices1
    Average
    1983-92
    19931994199519961997199819992000
    Central and eastern Europe79.945.624.723.341.817.110.912.6
    Albania16.085.022.67.812.732.120.90.40.0
    Bosnia and Herzegovina0.2-13.79.50.63.45.0
    Bulgaria28.472.896.062.1123.01,061.218.82.610.4
    Croatia1,516.697.52.03.53.65.74.16.2
    Czech Republic20.810.09.18.88.510.72.14.0
    Estonia89.849.329.023.111.28.13.34.0
    Hungary15.122.418.828.323.518.314.310.09.8
    Latvia109.235.925.017.68.44.72.42.6
    Lithuania410.472.139.524.78.85.10.81.0
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of338.7127.515.72.32.6-0.1-0.75.8
    Poland71.835.332.227.919.914.911.87.310.1
    Romania256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.845.7
    Slovak Republic23.013.49.95.86.16.710.712.0
    Slovenia31.921.513.59.98.47.96.28.9
    Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia1,246.1508.1235.655.919.125.070.425.0
    Russia878.8307.5198.047.914.727.885.720.8
    Excluding Russia2,440.91,334.5338.875.529.619.341.834.6
    Armenia3,731.85,273.4176.718.714.08.70.7-0.8
    Azerbaijan1,129.71,664.0411.819.83.7-0.8-8.51.8
    Belarus1,190.22,434.1709.352.763.873.0293.7169.0
    Georgia3,125.415,606.5162.739.37.03.619.14.0
    Kazakhstan1,662.31,879.9176.339.117.47.38.413.3
    Kyrgyz Republic772.4190.140.731.322.612.035.918.7
    Moldova788.5329.630.223.511.87.739.331.3
    Mongolia13.7268.487.656.846.836.69.47.611.6
    Tajikistan2,194.9350.4610.0418.288.043.227.532.9
    Turkmenistan3,102.41,748.31,005.2992.483.716.823.58.0
    Ukraine4,734.9891.2376.480.215.910.622.728.2
    Uzbekistan534.21,568.3304.654.070.929.029.125.0
    Memorandum
    EU accession candidates64.959.142.839.455.435.625.324.3

    For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

    Table 14.Summary Financial Indicators(Percent)
    1993199419951996199719981999200020012002
    Advanced economies
    Central government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies-4.3-3.7-3.3-2.7-1.5-1.6-0.90.4-0.3-0.2
    United States-4.2-3.0-2.6-1.8-0.60.61.32.51.81.7
    European Union-5.9-5.3-4.6-4.1-2.4-1.8-1.00.4-0.9-0.9
    Euro area-5.3-4.8-4.3-4.1-2.7-2.4-1.7-0.4-1.3-1.3
    Japan-2.6-3.4-3.9-4.2-3.9-8.9-7.9-7.5-6.2-5.1
    Other advanced economies-2.1-1.4-1.0-0.20.6-0.10.11.60.81.0
    General government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies-4.7-4.0-3.8-3.1-1.7-1.2-0.90.3-0.5-0.4
    United States-5.1-3.8-3.3-2.4-1.30.71.91.21.2
    European Union-6.3-5.6-5.3-4.3-2.5-1.6-0.70.9-0.5-0.7
    Euro area-5.9-5.3-5.3-4.4-2.7-2.2-1.30.2-1.0-1.0
    Japan-1.6-2.2-3.5-4.2-3.2-4.5-7.0-8.2-7.4-6.5
    Other advanced economies-2.7-1.9-1.1-0.20.6-0.40.22.21.41.7
    General government structural balance2
    Advanced economies-3.9-3.4-3.2-2.5-1.3-0.8-0.6-0.3-0.30.1
    Growth of broad money
    Advanced economies3.82.64.44.95.06.5
    United States1.30.63.94.55.68.56.36.2
    Euro area6.32.35.74.04.64.76.94.9
    Japan1.42.93.22.93.84.42.62.2
    Other advanced economies8.09.58.88.76.310.4
    Short-term interest rates3
    United States3.53.14.45.75.14.94.86.03.73.2
    Japan2.41.90.80.30.30.20.2
    Euro area8.76.56.24.74.24.03.14.64.44.0
    LIBOR3.45.16.15.65.95.65.56.64.13.7
    Developing countries
    Central government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average-3.4-2.8-2.6-2.2-2.5-3.9-4.1-3.0-3.4-3.0
    Median-4.2-3.8-3.3-2.5-2.4-2.8-3.2-2.9-2.6-2.4
    General government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average-3.6-3.8-3.3-3.3-3.4-4.9-5.2-3.8-4.2-3.8
    Median-4.1-3.7-3.2-2.9-2.4-3.3-3.2-2.9-2.5-2.1
    Growth of broad money
    Weighted average90.467.724.323.122.117.415.111.213.313.0
    Median16.519.116.314.415.610.512.510.910.39.6
    Countries in transition
    Central government fiscal balance1-6.1-7.4-4.7-4.6-4.7-3.6-2.5-0.6-0.6-0.9
    General government fiscal balance1-6.8-7.5-4.7-5.8-5.4-4.9-2.2-1.0-1.3
    Growth of broad money424.5194.375.332.333.120.539.537.717.415.8

    Percent of GDP.

    Percent of potential GDP.

    For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

    Table 15.Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Fiscal Balances and Balances Excluding Social Security Transactions1(Percent of GDP)
    1993199419951996199719981999200020012002
    General government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies-4.7-4.0-3.8-3.1-1.7-1.2-0.90.3-0.5-0.4
    Major advanced economies-5.0-4.2-4.1-3.4-2.0-1.3-1.0-0.8-0.7
    United States-5.1-3.8-3.3-2.4-1.30.71.91.21.2
    Japan-1.6-2.2-3.5-4.2-3.2-4.5-7.0-8.2-7.4-6.5
    Germany2-3.1-2.4-3.3-3.4-2.7-2.2-1.61.2-2.2-1.8
    France2,3-6.0-5.5-5.5-4.1-3.5-2.6-1.6-1.4-0.8-1.6
    Italy2-9.4-9.1-7.6-7.1-2.7-2.8-1.8-0.3-1.3-0.9
    United Kingdom2,4-7.8-6.9-5.4-4.1-1.50.31.54.00.70.2
    Canada-8.7-6.7-5.3-2.80.20.51.63.22.82.9
    Other advanced economies-3.7-3.0-2.7-1.5-0.7-0.9-0.21.40.80.9
    Spain-6.7-6.1-7.0-4.9-3.2-2.6-1.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
    Netherlands2-3.1-3.6-4.2-1.8-1.1-0.80.42.20.80.4
    Belgium2-7.3-5.0-4.3-3.8-1.9-0.9-0.70.10.1
    Sweden-11.9-10.8-7.9-3.4-2.01.81.93.13.32.4
    Austria-4.2-4.8-5.1-3.8-1.7-2.3-2.1-1.1-0.7
    Denmark-2.8-2.4-2.3-1.00.51.13.12.51.92.0
    Finland-7.3-5.7-3.7-3.2-1.51.31.96.93.82.4
    Greece-13.8-10.0-10.2-7.4-4.0-2.5-1.8-1.00.31.0
    Portugal-6.1-6.0-4.6-4.0-2.6-1.9-2.0-1.5-2.0-2.0
    Ireland-2.3-1.7-2.2-0.20.72.13.94.52.91.6
    Luxembourg5.24.22.22.73.63.32.34.14.24.6
    Switzerland-3.8-2.8-1.9-2.0-2.4-0.4-0.41.80.2
    Norway-1.40.43.56.67.93.45.814.716.114.6
    Israel-4.6-3.5-4.8-5.5-4.1-3.6-4.8-2.9-3.9-3.7
    Iceland-4.5-4.7-3.0-1.60.42.22.81.91.4
    Cyprus-2.4-1.4-1.0-3.4-5.3-5.5-4.0-2.7-2.7-2.4
    Korea51.31.01.31.0-0.9-3.8-2.72.51.11.6
    Australia6-4.4-3.5-2.1-0.9-0.10.30.80.90.50.5
    Taiwan Province of China0.60.20.40.20.11.40.1-0.5-2.0-0.7
    Hong Kong SAR2.11.1-0.32.26.6-1.90.8-0.9-0.2-0.3
    Singapore14.413.912.29.39.23.64.57.96.17.3
    New Zealand7-0.72.23.62.71.61.00.40.60.70.9
    Memorandum
    European Union-6.3-5.6-5.3-4.3-2.5-1.6-0.70.9-0.5-0.7
    Euro area-5.9-5.3-5.3-4.4-2.7-2.2-1.30.2-1.0-1.0
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.11.71.61.51.1-1.4-0.91.60.31.1
    Fiscal balance excluding social security transactions
    United States-5.3-4.2-3.7-2.7-1.7-0.7-0.30.3-0.2-0.2
    Japan-4.7-5.0-6.3-6.7-5.8-6.5-8.8-9.5-8.2-7.0
    Germany-3.3-2.5-2.9-3.1-2.8-2.3-1.81.2-2.1-1.8
    France-5.1-5.0-4.8-3.6-3.1-2.5-1.8-1.5-1.2-2.2
    Italy-5.4-4.5-5.6-5.3-0.71.32.63.62.62.9
    Canada-5.9-3.9-2.73.03.03.95.14.44.0
    Central government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies-4.3-3.7-3.3-2.7-1.5-1.6-0.90.4-0.3-0.2
    Major advanced economies-4.5-3.8-3.4-3.0-1.7-1.8-1.00.3-0.4-0.3
    United States8-4.2-3.0-2.6-1.8-0.60.61.32.51.81.7
    Japan9-2.6-3.4-3.9-4.2-3.9-8.9-7.9-7.5-6.2-5.1
    Germany10-2.1-1.5-1.4-2.2-1.7-1.5-1.31.3-1.3-1.1
    France10-4.6-4.6-4.2-4.6-3.6-3.7-3.0-2.4-1.8-2.2
    Italy-9.9-9.1-7.1-6.8-2.9-2.8-1.4-1.0-2.5-2.3
    United Kingdom-8.2-6.9-5.5-4.2-1.50.31.44.00.70.2
    Canada-5.4-4.5-3.9-2.00.71.00.91.81.21.1
    Other advanced economies-3.9-3.2-2.8-1.7-1.0-1.0-0.50.80.30.5
    Memorandum
    European Union-5.9-5.3-4.6-4.1-2.4-1.8-1.00.4-0.9-0.9
    Euro area-5.3-4.8-4.3-4.1-2.7-2.4-1.7-0.4-1.3-1.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies0.81.01.01.00.8-1.3-1.20.8-0.30.4

    On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

    Includes one-off receipts from the sale of mobile telephone licenses equivalent to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2000 for Germany, 0.5 percent of GDP in 2001 for France, 1.2 percent of GDP in 2000 for Italy, 2.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for the United Kingdom, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2001 for Belgium, and 0.7 percent of GDP in 2000 for the Netherlands.

    Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

    Excludes asset sales.

    Data include social security transactions (that is, the operations of the public pension plan).

    Data exclude net advances (primarily privatization receipts and net policy-related lending).

    Data from 1992 onward are on an accrual basis and are not strictly comparable with previous cash-based data.

    Data are on a budget basis.

    Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

    Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

    Table 16.Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances1(Percent of potential GDP)
    1993199419951996199719981999200020012002
    Structural balance2
    Advanced economies-3.9-3.4-3.2-2.5-1.3-0.8-0.6-0.3-0.30.1
    Major advanced economies-3.8-3.3-3.2-2.6-1.3-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.40.1
    United States-3.8-2.8-2.3-1.5-0.70.20.61.51.31.6
    Japan-1.5-1.9-3.2-4.3-3.4-3.6-6.0-7.3-5.9-4.7
    Germany3,4-3.0-2.4-3.3-2.7-1.6-1.2-0.7-1.1-1.4-0.8
    France4-3.5-3.5-3.7-1.9-1.5-1.4-0.9-1.1-1.0-1.0
    Italy4-8.2-7.8-7.0-6.2-1.7-1.8-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.1
    United Kingdom4-6.6-5.5-4.4-3.4-1.00.51.51.60.70.5
    Canada-4.4-3.8-2.80.12.12.12.53.13.23.6
    Other advanced economies-4.3-4.0-3.4-2.0-1.1-0.7-0.20.30.30.4
    Spain-5.0-5.2-5.1-3.1-1.8-1.9-1.1-0.8-0.4
    Netherlands-1.9-2.7-3.1-0.9-0.8-1.4-0.70.2-0.1
    Belgium-5.2-3.1-2.7-1.6-0.50.40.4-0.10.10.2
    Sweden-13.1-11.8-8.8-4.9-3.70.61.54.33.12.3
    Austria-3.7-4.6-4.8-3.6-1.2-1.7-1.7-1.5-0.30.4
    Denmark-1.1-1.2-1.7-0.70.50.62.31.21.01.4
    Finland-0.9-0.70.30.30.12.02.56.94.73.6
    Greece-5.9-3.9-3.5-2.4-1.2-0.7-0.5-0.4-0.10.1
    Portugal-5.4-5.0-3.5-3.2-2.3-2.3-2.6-2.6-2.1-1.6
    Ireland-0.50.1-1.90.10.11.52.92.91.61.0
    Norway5-7.9-6.7-4.5-3.4-2.6-3.6-3.5-3.3-2.8-2.9
    Australia6-2.8-2.3-1.6-0.70.10.20.50.70.60.7
    New Zealand70.40.91.71.41.61.70.80.91.11.5
    Memorandum
    European Union8-5.0-4.5-4.4-3.1-1.4-1.0-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.2
    Euro area8-4.5-4.2-4.3-3.1-1.5-1.3-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.4

    On a national income accounts basis.

    The structural budget position is defined as the actual budget deficit (or surplus) less the effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output. Because of the margin of uncertainty that attaches to estimates of cyclical gaps and to tax and expenditure elasticities with respect to national income, indicators of structural budget positions should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude. Moreover, it is important to note that changes in structural budget balances are not necessarily attributable to policy changes but may reflect the built-in momentum of existing expenditure programs. In the period beyond that for which specific consolidation programs exist, it is assumed that the structural deficit remains unchanged.

    The estimate of the fiscal impulse for 1995 is affected by the assumption by the federal government of the debt of the Treuhandanstalt and various other agencies, which were formerly held outside the general government sector. At the public sector level, there would be an estimated withdrawal of fiscal impulse amounting to just over 1 percent of GDP.

    Excludes mobile telephone license receipts.

    Excludes oil.

    Excludes commonwealth government privatization receipts.

    Excludes privatization proceeds.

    Excludes Luxembourg.

    Table 17.Advanced Economies: Monetary Aggregates

    (Annual percent change)1

    19931994199519961997199819992000
    Narrow money2
    Advanced economies8.14.45.34.44.25.3
    Major advanced economies7.64.04.73.63.85.1
    United States10.62.5-1.6-4.5-1.32.11.8-1.7
    Japan3.44.912.810.08.96.111.84.1
    Euro area6.04.46.47.57.19.510.35.7
    Germany8.55.26.812.42.311.1
    France1.42.87.70.86.53.1
    Italy7.63.41.43.97.79.0
    United Kingdom6.06.85.66.76.45.311.74.6
    Canada14.48.77.617.810.68.78.514.2
    Other advanced economies10.86.68.38.36.26.4
    Memorandum
    Newly industrialized Asian economies18.09.310.55.8-3.80.919.74.5
    Broad money3
    Advanced economies3.82.64.44.95.06.5
    Major advanced economies2.61.73.74.24.66.5
    United States1.30.63.94.55.68.56.36.2
    Japan1.42.93.22.93.84.42.62.2
    Euro area6.32.35.74.04.64.76.94.9
    Germany10.91.63.68.73.67.3
    France-2.91.84.6-3.32.02.7
    Italy3.81.0-1.93.89.05.6
    United Kingdom4.94.29.99.65.68.43.98.4
    Canada2.72.84.12.1-1.31.45.15.5
    Other advanced economies9.36.67.68.87.06.7
    Memorandum
    Newly industrialized Asian economies15.616.513.011.411.319.816.914.2

    Based on end-of-period data except for Japan which is based on monthly averages.

    M1 except for the United Kingdom, where MO is used here as a measure of narrow money; it comprises notes in circulation plus bankers’ operational deposits. M1 is generally currency in circulation plus private demand deposits. In addition, the United States includes traveler’s checks of nonbank issues and other checkable deposits and excludes private sector float and demand deposits of banks. Japan includes government demand deposits and excludes float. Germany includes demand deposits at fixed interest rates. Canada excludes private sector float.

    M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs), M3, and M4, respectively. Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For Japan, M2 plus CDs is currency in circulation plus total private and public sector deposits and installments of Sogo Bank plus CDs. For Germany, M3 is M1 plus private time deposits with maturities of less than four years plus savings deposits at statutory notice. For Italy, M2 comprises M1 plus term deposits, passbooks from the Postal Office, and CDs with maturities of less than 18 months. For the United Kingdom, M4 is composed of non-interest-bearing M1, private sector interest-bearing sterling sight bank deposits, private sector sterling time banks deposits, private sector holdings of sterling bank CDs, private sector holdings of building society shares and deposits, and sterling CDs less building society holdings of banks deposits and bank CDs and notes and coins.

    Table 18.Advanced Economies: Interest Rates(Percent a year)
    19931994199519961997199819992000August
    2001
    Policy-related interest rate1
    Major advanced economies4.74.55.44.4<