- International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
- Published Date:
- October 1995
© 1995 International Monetary Fund
World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
World economic outlook: a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund.—1980- —Washington, D.C.: The Fund, 1980–
v.; 28 cm.—(1981–84: Occasional paper/International Monetary Fund ISSN 0251-6365)
Has occasional updates, 1984—
ISSN 0258-7440 = World economic and financial surveys
ISSN 0256-6877 = World economic outlook (Washington)
I. Economic history—1971– —Periodicals. I. International
Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary
AACR 2 MARC-S
Library of Congress 8507
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Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook. It has been assumed that average real effective exchange rates will remain constant at their August 1-23, 1995 levels, except for the bilateral rates among the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) currencies, which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms; that “established” policies of national authorities will be maintained; that the average price of oil will be $16.67 a barrel in 1995 and $15.51 a barrel in 1996, and remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; and that the six-month U.S. dollar London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) will average 6¼ percent in 1995 and 1996. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available on September 18, 1995.
The following conventions have been used throughout the World Economic Outlook: … to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;
— to indicate that the Figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown;
– between years or months (e.g., 1994–95 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years or months (e.g., 1994/95) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (e.g., 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
* * *
As used in this report, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
The projections and analysis contained in the World Economic Outlook are an integral element of the IMF’s ongoing surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries and of the global economic system. The IMF has published the World Economic Outlook annually from 1980 through 1983 and biannually since 1984.
The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries. These consultations are carried out in particular by the IMF’s area departments together with the Policy Development and Review and Fiscal Affairs Departments.
The country projections are prepared by the IMF’s area departments on the basis of internationally consistent assumptions about world activity, exchange rates, and conditions in international financial and commodity markets. For approximately 50 of the largest economies—accounting for 90 percent of world output—the projections are updated for each World Economic Outlook exercise. For smaller countries, the projections are based on those prepared at the time of the IMF’s regular Article IV consultations with member countries or in connection with the use of IMF resources; for these countries, the projections used in the World Economic Outlook are incrementally adjusted to reflect changes in assumptions and global economic conditions.
The analysis in the World Economic Outlook draws extensively on the ongoing work of the IMF’s area and specialized departments and is coordinated in the Research Department under the general direction of Michael Mussa, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. The World Economic Outlook project is directed by Flemming Larsen, Senior Advisor in the Research Department, together with David T, Coe, Chief of the World Economic Studies Division.
Primary contributors to the current issue are Francesco Caramazza. Staff an Gorne, Robert F. Wescott, Vincent Koen, Mahmood Pradhan, Paula De Masi, Alexander Hoffmaister, Thomas Helbling. Hossein Samiei, and Cathy Wright. Other contributors include Sheila Bassett, Ximena Cheetham, Hema De Zoysa. Robert Feldman. Douglas Laxton. Calvin McDonald, Steven Symansky, and Anthony G. Turner. The authors of the annex are indicated in the annex. The Fiscal Analysis Division of the Fiscal Affairs Department computed the structural budget and fiscal impulse measures. Sungcha Hong Cha and Toh Kuan provided research assistance. Shamim Kassam. Allen Cobler, Nicholas Dopuch, Isabella Dymarskaia, Gretchen Gallik, Mandy Hemmati, Yasoma Liyanarachchi, and Subodh Raje processed the data and managed the computer systems. Susan Duff, Margarita Lorenz, and Margaret Dapaah were responsible for word processing. Juanita Roushdy of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication; Tom Walter coordinated production of the Arabic, French, and Spanish editions.
The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the World Economic Outlook on September 11 and 13, 1995. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.