- International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
- Published Date:
- May 1996
©1996 International Monetary Fund
World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
World economic outlook: a survey by the staff of the International
Monetary Fund.—1980- —Washington, D.C.: The Fund, 1980-
v.; 28 cm.—(1981–84: Occasional paper/International Monetary Fund ISSN 0251-6365)
Has occasional updates, 1984-
ISSN 0258-7440 = World economic and financial surveys
ISSN 0256-6877 = World economic outlook (Washington)
1. Economic history—1971- —Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund)
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Foreign Exchange and Financial Markets
9. Selected Countries Less Advanced in Transition: Inflation
Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook. It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates will remain constant at their average levels during February 16–March 14, 1996 except for the bilateral rates among the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) currencies, which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary polices in industrial countries, see Box 1 in Chapter 1); that the average price of oil will be $17.39 a barrel in 1996 and $16.12 a barrel in 1997, and remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; and that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 5.4 percent in 1996 and 5.6 percent in 1997. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available on April 3, 1996.
The following conventions have been used throughout the World Economic Outlook:
… to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;
— to indicate that the figure is zero or negligible;
– between years or months (for example, 1994–95 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years or months (for example, 1994/95) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown are due to rounding.
* * *
As used in this report, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
The projections and analysis contained in the World Economic Outlook are an integral element of the IMF’s ongoing surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries and of the global economic system. The IMF has published the World Economic Outlook annually from 1980 through 1983 and biannually since 1984.
The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries. These consultations are carried out in particular by the IMF’s area departments together with the Policy Development and Review Department and the Fiscal Affairs Department.
The country projections are prepared by the IMF’s area departments on the basis of internationally consistent assumptions about world activity, exchange rates, and conditions in international financial and commodity markets. For approximately 50 of the largest economies—accounting for 90 percent of world output—the projections are updated for each World Economic Outlook exercise. For smaller countries, the projections are based on those prepared at the time of the IMF’s regular Article IV consultations with member countries or in connection with the use of IMF resources; for these countries, the projections used in the World Economic Outlook are incrementally adjusted to reflect changes in assumptions and global economic conditions.
The analysis in the World Economic Outlook draws extensively on the ongoing work of the IMF’s area and specialized departments, and is coordinated in the Research Department under the general direction of Michael Mussa, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. The World Economic Outlook project is directed by Flemming Larsen, Deputy Director, the Research Department, together with Graham Hacche, Chief of the World Economic Studies Division.
Primary contributors to the current issue are Francesco Caramazza, Robert F. Wescott, Staffan Gorne, Paula De Masi, James Haley, Mahmood Pradhan, Jahangir Aziz, John McDermott, and Cathy Wright. Other contributors include Liam Ebrill, Alain Feler, Oussama Kanaan, Manmohan S. Kumar, Douglas Laxton, Gabrielle Lipworth, Steven Symansky, and Anthony G. Turner. The authors of the annexes are indicated on the first page of each. The Fiscal Analysis Division of the Fiscal Affairs Department computed the structural budget and fiscal impulse measures. Sungcha Hong Cha, Toh Kuan, and Michelle Marquardt provided research assistance. Shamim Kassam, Allen Cobler, Nicholas Dopuch, Isabella Dymarskaia, Gretchen Gallik, Mandy Hemmati, and Yasoma Liyanarachchi processed the data and managed the computer systems. Susan Duff, Margarita Lorenz, and Margaret Dapaah were responsible for word processing. Juanita Roushdy of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication; Tom Walter coordinated production of the Arabic, French, and Spanish editions.
The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the World Economic Outlook on March 27 and 29, 1996. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.