Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
September 2002
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    ANNEX SUMMING UP BY THE CHAIRMAN

    The following remarks by the Chairman were made at the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion of the World Economic Outlook. They were made on March 19, 2003.

    Executive Directors noted that the pace of the global recovery has slowed since late 2002, amid rising geopolitical uncertainties and the continued adverse effects of the fallout from the bursting of the equity market bubble. Industrial production has stagnated in the major advanced countries; world trade growth has slowed; labor market conditions have remained soft; the recovery of global fixed investment is tentative; and forward-looking indicators have generally weakened. Against this backdrop, global equity markets have weakened, and government bond yields in industrial countries have declined. At the same time, bond spreads for some emerging markets have narrowed—partly reflecting clearer signals about future macroeconomic policies in these countries—and substantial tiering has emerged.

    Directors had a wide-ranging discussion on global economic prospects against the background of the pronounced geopolitical uncertainties and rapidly changing conditions. They noted that the global economy has been resilient so far and that in many industrial countries the fundamentals remain sound. On the assumption that current geopolitical uncertainties are resolved quickly, Directors agreed with the view that the global recovery should gradually reassert itself, achieving global GDP growth of just over 3 percent in 2003 under the baseline scenario. Such an outcome would be supported by a pickup in confidence, the ebbing of the headwinds to growth from the bursting of the equity bubble, the policy stimulus in the pipeline, and the inventory cycle. In addition, with corporations in both the United States and Europe having relatively high cash balances, it is possible that investment could respond relatively quickly. Nonetheless, Directors acknowledged that the considerable uncertainties and risks give cause for concern for the economic outlook, given the fragility of the global recovery and the likelihood that the resiliency of the world economy to shocks may now be weakening. Developments in the oil market will need to be monitored closely.

    Directors recognized that the economic impact of conflict can be significant, although it is very difficult to quantify. Most Directors felt that a relatively rapid resolution of the conflict might do only limited damage to growth prospects—although it was acknowledged that there could still be lasting effects on some countries—while a prolonged and destructive conflict could have a severely adverse impact on global activity. Directors considered that the balance of the other risks to the outlook is principally on the downside, and that sluggish growth could persist even in the absence of a war. Three elements underpin this caution. First, the global recovery remains heavily dependent on the United States, and there is no obvious candidate to take up the slack if growth in the Unites States falters. A disorderly adjustment in response to global imbalances—involving a sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar—remains a risk. Second, the possibility of further declines in mature equity markets cannot be ruled out, as earnings expectations remain relatively optimistic, and an adjustment in housing prices in some industrial countries is also possible. Third, despite recent progress, a number of emerging markets remain vulnerable to a deterioration in the global environment. Notwithstanding these downside risks, Directors regarded sustained global deflation as being unlikely, although they did not rule out price declines in individual countries.

    With inflationary pressures in general quite moderate, Directors agreed that monetary policies in major industrial countries will need to remain accommodative. With regard to fiscal policies, the situation differs between countries. In the short run, Directors acknowledged that the scope for fiscal tightening is constrained by the current cyclical situation. Most Directors agreed that automatic fiscal stabilizers should generally be allowed to operate, although it is clear that fiscal consolidation will remain a central medium-term priority in many industrial countries with high public debt levels and mounting pressures from aging populations. Directors also urged an acceleration of structural reforms to boost confidence and domestic demand growth—particularly in Europe and Japan—in order to reduce global dependence on the U.S. and foster an orderly reduction in global imbalances.

    Directors underscored that policymakers will need to remain vigilant to changing circumstances, and be flexible and ready to adapt to them as events unfold. Close international cooperation and dialogue and concerted efforts will be required to confront global uncertainties and boost global confidence. Directors considered that a strong push to advance multilateral trade negotiations under the Doha Round should be a key ingredient of such efforts. In addition, the international community, including the IMF, should stand ready to proactively advise and support member countries adversely affected by the economic implications of a conflict scenario, using all instruments available to it.

    Major Currency Areas

    Turning to the prospects for the major currency areas, Directors expected the United States to continue to lead the global recovery. They observed that while some U.S. economic fundamentals—notably productivity performance—have remained strong, recent U.S. economic data have been disappointing, reflecting weakening consumer confidence and spending. Several factors appear to be contributing to downside risks to the U.S. outlook. These include the possibility of war in Iraq, uncertainties about whether the bubble-period excesses have been fully worked out, and the emergence of fiscal deficits alongside the large current account deficit. Directors observed that the current stance of monetary policy is broadly appropriate, but further easing may be necessary if downside risks to growth materialize, although several noted that the scope for doing so is becoming increasingly limited. On fiscal policy, Directors viewed the U.S. Administration’s recent tax proposals as having some merit from a structural perspective. Directors nonetheless generally felt that these proposals, if implemented, would significantly worsen the medium term fiscal position, and may well be pro-cyclical if the economy picks up as expected under the baseline scenario. They underlined the importance of restoring investor confidence to underpin the recovery, and called for strict enforcement of enhanced corporate governance rules.

    While the euro area is not experiencing serious imbalances and its fundamentals remain generally strong, Directors viewed recent developments in the area with concern. Growth has continued to disappoint, and forecasts for 2003 have been revised down sharply. The appreciation of the euro, balance sheet strains, and prospective fiscal tightening in a number of countries are all likely to weigh on the regional economy going forward. Within this overall picture, the situation in Germany—where the economy has stagnated and the financial sector has come under increasing strain—was viewed with particular concern by Directors.

    The ECB’s recent move to cut interest rates was welcomed, and many Directors saw scope for further monetary easing to reinvigorate growth. In the fiscal area, with budgetary positions in a number of countries in western Europe having become more difficult over the past year, Directors noted that the challenge in the near term will be to avoid adding unduly to economic headwinds through fiscal retrenchment, while strengthening the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). To achieve this, Directors believed that structural deficits would need to be reduced toward the medium-term norm of a fiscal position of close to balance or in surplus. Most Directors supported the full play of automatic stabilizers around the consolidation path, even if this were to result in deficits in 2003 above the 3 percent of GDP deficit limit. A few Directors, however, considered that an overshooting of the deficit limit in the present circumstances is not warranted, as it might undermine confidence in the fiscal framework without bringing significant short-term benefit to economic activity.

    Directors called for a greater sense of urgency by European countries to address structural rigidities in product and labor markets. While a number of important steps have been taken, they noted that European unemployment rates generally remain high, and participation rates are much lower than in other advanced countries. Most Directors agreed with the view that labor market rigidities play an important role in explaining the persistent unemployment in a number of industrial countries. This is shown by the contrasting experiences of countries that have undertaken comprehensive reforms—and observed a steady decline in structural unemployment—and those that have made little progress—and seen further increases in unemployment rates. They called for comprehensive labor market reforms in the euro area which, particularly if complemented with product market reforms, would yield significant gains in the form of lower unemployment and higher output. In this connection, Directors welcomed proposals recently put forward by the German authorities to improve incentives to work and begin dismantling excessive job protection. If the detailed measures are bold and implemented in full, Directors considered that they would have a favorable effect on business confidence and job creation.

    Directors noted that the economic situation in Japan remains difficult. While the economy experienced a modest cyclical recovery during 2002, growth is expected to remain subdued in 2003. Moreover, deflation continues, and survey evidence suggests that deflationary expectations are becoming more widespread and persistent. Most Directors urged the Bank of Japan to be more aggressive in both its monetary policy actions and in its communications strategy to arrest deflation. It was noted also that the effectiveness of monetary policy would be improved by measures to strengthen the financial sector. Given the large budget deficit and high public debt levels, Directors emphasized the need for the authorities to establish a credible medium term fiscal consolidation strategy and to implement key fiscal reforms. Most Directors were of the view that a gradual start toward fiscal consolidation is now needed, unless the authorities push ahead with a much more aggressive structural reform agenda. The recent reforms to strengthen banks and corporates were welcomed, although Directors underscored that they did not go far enough to resolve the longstanding problems in these sectors.

    Directors shared insights on asset price bubbles based on recent staff work. They noted that the recent busts in equity markets have so far been quite similar to earlier episodes in terms of magnitudes, lengths, and cross-country synchronization of the price declines. Some Directors expressed concern about the substantial increase in housing prices in some industrial countries and the associated risks of busts in this asset class. Directors observed that the stock market booms in Europe and North America in the late 1990s led firms to borrow and invest well ahead of demand, thus increasing corporate vulnerability to a decline in stock prices and aggregate demand. Directors also noted concerns about the high levels of corporate debt compared with equity, especially in Europe, which could dampen investment spending during the recovery.

    Emerging Markets

    Directors considered that growth prospects in emerging market countries generally remain relatively favorable, although performance and prospects vary significantly within this group. Many countries are implementing disciplined fiscal and monetary policies and advancing with structural reforms, and are in a better position to withstand external shocks. Nevertheless, there remain downside risks, given the weaker outlook in industrial countries and uncertainties related to the situation in Iraq.

    Directors welcomed recent signs of a pickup in activity in much of Latin America and the improvement in market sentiment, although they noted that the situation in a number of countries remains difficult. In Argentina, the economy may now be over the worst, but policy continuity will be fundamental, and the signals that presidential candidates send to markets will be crucial in shaping expectations. In Brazil, the new government’s decisive actions to maintain macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline have helped reduce uncertainties in financial markets. Chile and Mexico are relatively more sheltered from deterioration in external financing conditions, reflecting their strong policy record and relatively high integration with the world economy. For the region as a whole, Directors emphasized the importance of sustained efforts to lower public sector debt levels and improve the maturity structure of the debt. Other key policy priorities for the region include orienting monetary policy to achieve low inflation with exchange rate flexibility, deepening domestic financial inter mediation, and introducing reforms to liberalize trade, improve social safety nets, and increase labor market flexibility.

    Directors commended the impressive economic performance in emerging Asia underpinned by both exports and domestic demand, with countries moving most vigorously to implement structural reforms generally seeing the most robust growth. Going forward, growth in emerging Asia will remain reliant on the global economic environment. Directors viewed the continuation of accommodative monetary policies as generally appropriate, and believed that the automatic fiscal stabilizers should be allowed to operate in most countries. Further progress with structural reform, particularly in the financial sector, was seen by Directors as necessary to underpin stronger domestic demand and help contribute to a reduction in global imbalances. Directors noted that the generally comfortable external sector positions in the region provide the foundation for pressing ahead with the unfinished agenda of structural reforms.

    Directors noted that growth in central and eastern Europe has continued to be underpinned by strong foreign direct investment, as European Union accession nears. Directors saw significant challenges lying ahead, as governments look beyond accession to the requirements associated with adoption of the euro. They observed that, although the picture varies across countries, the need for fiscal restraint will likely remain a central focus of policy for most countries in central and eastern Europe to underpin market confidence and bolster growth. In Turkey, following a better than expected performance last year, economic and financial conditions have deteriorated in recent months, and Directors underscored the urgent need for the government to pursue fiscal restraint and structural reforms to sustain confidence.

    Growth in oil-exporting CIS countries has been buoyed by rising energy prices. Directors expressed concern that slowing structural reforms could dampen investment spending, particularly in Russia, and weaken medium-term prospects. Directors called upon the authorities in the CIS countries to reinvigorate the reform process, including by strengthening banking systems. The seven low-income CIS countries (the CIS-7) should give priority to fostering investment toward diversifying industrial production and strengthening the services sector, in order to help address the high public debt levels that threaten fiscal sustainability.

    Growth in the Middle East continued to weaken in 2002, although countries where reforms have progressed fastest experienced more rapid growth. Directors observed that the increase in oil prices is benefiting many countries in the region, but that the regional security situation is weighing on foreign investment and tourism. Over the medium term, the key policy challenge across the region will be to achieve sustained high GDP growth in order to reduce unemployment and absorb the rapidly growing labor force. Efforts to energize the private sector, liberalize trade, and develop human resources should remain at the core of the reform agenda.

    Macroeconomic policy and structural reform implementation have improved in many African countries. Nevertheless, growth in Africa slowed in 2002 owing to poor weather and continuing political turmoil affecting several countries. The central challenge in Africa will be to put in place the conditions to reach the Millennium Development Goals. As stressed in the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), this will require a substantial improvement in the climate for private investment, which in turn will depend on actions to restore peace and political stability; improve governance, infrastructure, health and education; liberalize markets and trade; and address the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Directors underscored that achieving these goals will require the financial support of the international community and greater market access for the exports of African countries.

    Directors welcomed the opportunity to discuss the impact of institutions on economic performance. They observed that improvements in institutional quality are found to raise the level and growth rate of GDP per capita, and lower the volatility of growth. Based on these findings, Directors agreed that developing countries would significantly strengthen their economic performance if they improve the quality of their institutions while maintaining sound macroeconomic policies. Directors considered that some general principles may frame the strengthening of institutions. For example, successful market-based economies need institutions that protect property rights, uphold the rule of law, provide appropriate regulation of markets, support macroeconomic stability, and promote social cohesion and stability. Directors stressed that institutional design and reform will inevitably have strong country-specific elements requiring adaptation and innovation to suit local conditions. Some key elements of institutional reform include greater competition, including through trade openness, which can help rein in the power of vested interests, and stronger information flows and transparency, which can improve policy choices and reduce the scope for corruption. In addition, external “anchors,” such as those associated with the EU accession process, have also proved effective for strengthening institutions. In the final analysis, Directors felt that firm domestic ownership and commitment remain the most vital ingredients for institutional reform.

    STATISTICAL APPENDIX

    The statistical appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises five sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables.

    The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2003–04 and the medium-term scenario for 2005–08 are summarized in the first section. The second section presents a brief description of changes to the database and statistical tables. The third section provides a general description of the data, and of the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the fourth section.

    The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through late March 2003. The figures for 2003 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; since they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

    Assumptions

    Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the period February 7–March 7, 2003. For 2003 and 2004, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.378 and 1.377, U.S. dollar/euro conversion rates of 1.09 for both years, and U.S. dollar/yen conversion rates of 117.0 and 115.7, respectively.

    Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected advanced economies are described in Box A1.

    It is assumed that the price of oil will average $31.00 a barrel in 2003 and $25.00 a barrel in 2004.

    With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 1.7 percent in 2003 and 3.5 percent in 2004; that the three-month interbank deposit rate for the euro will average 2.4 percent in 2003 and 2.5 percent in 2004; and that the three-month certificate of deposit rate in Japan will average 0.1 percent in 2003 and 0.3 in 2004.

    With respect to introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998 the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member states adopting the euro are:

    1 euro= 13.7603Austrian schillings
    = 40.3399Belgian francs
    = 1.95583Deutsche mark
    = 5.94573Finnish markkaa
    = 6.55957French francs
    = 340.750Greek drachma1
    = 0.787564Irish pound
    = 1.936.27Italian lire
    = 40.3399Luxembourg francs
    = 2.20371Netherlands guilders
    = 200.482Portuguese escudos
    = 166.386Spanish pesetas

    See Box 5.4 in the October 1998 World Economic Outlook for details on how the conversion rates were established.

    Box A1.Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies

    The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the World Economic Outlook are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. In cases where the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless otherwise indicated. Specific assumptions used in some of the advanced economies follow (see also Tables 1416 in the Statistical Appendix for data on fiscal and structural balances).1

    United States. The fiscal projections are based on the current services fiscal projections contained in the Administration’s budget for FY2004 (released in February 2003), taking partial account of the Administration’s budget proposals. The projections were also adjusted to take into account the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions, as well as other technical factors that the Congressional Budget Office has suggested could affect the medium-term fiscal outlook.

    Japan. The estimates for FY2002 take into account the initial budget, the first supplementary budget of November 2001, which included additional measures of ¥3 trillion, and the second supplementary budget of February 2002, with measures of ¥4 trillion. For FY2003, the projections incorporate the initial budget, which includes net tax cuts of ¥1.5 trillion, and the January 2003 supplementary budget, which provided for additional spending of ¥4 trillion.

    Germany. Fiscal projections for 2003–06 are based on the updated Stability Program of December 2002, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions and differences between the Stability Program’s estimates for fiscal developments in 2002 and the actual outcome.

    France. The projections are based on the 2003 budget and the 2004–06 Stability Program (as partly revised in the authorities’ March 2003 forecasts), adjusted for the differences between the IMF staff’s and the authorities’ macroeconomic assumptions. The projections also assume that structural balance will be broadly achieved in 2007.

    Italy. Fiscal projections for 2003 are based on the 2003 budget and staff’s macroeconomic projections. Projections for 2004 and beyond assume a constant structural primary balance.

    United Kingdom. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the November 2002 Pre-Budget report. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from the Office for National Statistics, including provisional budgetary outturns through December 2002.

    Canada. Projections are based on the 2003 budget. After fiscal year 2002/03, it is assumed that new measures, aimed at reducing taxes and introducing new spending initiatives, are implemented such that the federal government would maintain budget surpluses equivalent to the contingency reserve in the budget. The consolidated fiscal projection for the provinces is consistent with their stated medium-term targets.

    Australia. The fiscal projections through fiscal year 2005/06 are based on the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2002–03, published by the Australian Treasury in November 2002. For the remainder of the projection period, unchanged fiscal policies are assumed.

    Austria. Projections for 2003 are based on the 2003 budget plans, adjusted for the difference between the budget assumptions and the weaker outlook envisaged by the staff. Projections for 2004–05 are based on the authorities’ goal—set out in the updated Stability Program for 2001–05—to reach and maintain a balanced budget over the cycle, which is consistent with reaching a zero deficit in 2004 and a small surplus in 2005. Projections for 2006–08 assume a further small improvement.

    Belgium. For 2003, the fiscal projection is based on the government budget, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections. In subsequent years, two key assumptions are made: (1) the revenue to GDP ratio is only affected by the existing tax reform plans; and (2) a real primary expenditure growth target of 1.5 percent is followed.

    Denmark. Projections for 2003 reflect the 2003 budget presented by the authorities adjusted for IMF staff macroeconomic projections. For 2004–08, the projections are in line with the authorities’ medium-term framework—adjusted for IMF staff macroeconomic projections—targeting an average budget surplus of 1.5–2.5 percent of GDP, supported by a ceiling on real public consumption growth.

    Korea. The projections assume a fiscal policy that is consistent with achieving a balanced budget, excluding social security, in the medium term.

    Netherlands. Projections for 2003 reflect the 2003 budget, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. For 2004–06, the forecasts are based on the authorities’ multiyear framework as laid out in the December 2002 Stability Program, adjusted for the staff’s macroeconomic projections. The framework is based on binding multiyear ceilings for real expenditure.

    Portugal. Fiscal projections for 2003 are based on the 2003 budget and the staff’s macroeconomic projections. Projections for 2004 and beyond assume a constant structural primary balance.

    Spain. Fiscal projections through 2006 are based on the policies outlined in the national authorities’ updated Stability Program of December 2002, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections. In subsequent years, the fiscal projections assume no significant changes in these policies.

    Sweden. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the October 2002 Budget report. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from Statistics Sweden, including provisional budgetary outturns through December 2002.

    Switzerland. Projections for 2003 are based on federal budget plans and staff projections for lower levels of government. Projections for 2004–06 are based on the official financial plans (which include measures to strengthen the finances of social security), adjusted for the staff’s macroeconomic projections. Beyond 2006, the general government’s balance is assumed to remain unchanged.

    Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: official interest rates will therefore increase when economic indicators suggest that prospective inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range; and they will decrease when indicators suggest that prospective inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that prospective output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant. On this basis, the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six month U.S. dollar deposits is assumed to average 1.7 percent in 2003 and 3.5 percent in 2004. The projected path for U.S. dollar short-term interest rates reflects the assumption implicit in prevailing forward rates that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin to raise interest rates in late 2003. The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.1 percent in 2003 and 0.3 percent in 2004, with the current monetary policy framework being maintained. The rate on six-month euro deposits is assumed to average 2.4 percent in 2003 and 2.5 percent in 2004. Changes in interest rate assumptions compared with the September 2002 World Economic Outlook are summarized in Table 1.1.

    1 The output gap is actual less potential output, as a percent of potential output. Structural balances are expressed as a percent of potential output. The structural budget balance is the budgetary position that would be observed if the level of actual output coincided with potential output. Changes in the structural budget balance consequently include effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other noncyclical fluctuations in the budget balance. The computations of structural budget balances are based on IMF staff estimates of potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities (see the October 1993 World Economic Outlook, Annex I). Net debt is defined as gross debt less financial assets of the general government, which include assets held by the social security insurance system. Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.

    What’s New

    • Tables presenting projections for advanced economies have been revised to display the euro area and its member countries with greater prominence. Countries appear according to their weight within the group.

    • The country composition of the analytical groups has been revised to reflect the periodic update of the classification criteria.

    • The purchasing-power-parity (PPP)-based GDP weights that appear in Table A have been updated based upon the country projections released in the September 2002 World Economic Outlook.

    Table A.Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20011(Percent of total for group or world)
    Number of CountriesGDPExports of Goods and ServicesPopulation
    Share of total for
    Advanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorld
    Advanced Economies29100.055.7100.074.6100.015.4
    United States37.921.116.622.430.34.7
    Euro area1228.215.741.831.232.25.0
    Germany8.04.412.39.18.71.3
    France5.73.26.64.96.41.0
    Italy5.53.05.44.06.10.9
    Japan12.37.17.95.913.42.1
    United Kingdom5.63.16.95.16.21.0
    Canada3.62.05.13.83.30.5
    Other advanced economies22220.911.639.329.325.64.0
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies779.144.060.745.374.411.5
    European Union1535.319.751.838.640.06.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies46.13.412.79.58.61.3
    Developing countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorld
    Developing countries125100.038.1100.020.5100.078.1
    Regional groups
    Africa5.18.43.29.31.915.912.4
    Sub-Sahara486.52.56.81.414.411.2
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa463.81.43.60.710.68.3
    Developing Asia2560.322.949.010.067.152.4
    China33.312.722.94.726.720.8
    India12.54.84.50.921.817.0
    Other Asia2314.55.521.74.418.714.6
    Middle East and Europe1610.54.019.94.16.45.0
    Western Hemisphere3320.87.921.84.510.78.3
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel189.13.519.64.07.55.8
    Nonfuel10790.734.580.316.491.971.8
    of which, primary products293.51.33.00.67.25.6
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries10859.022.461.212.569.354.2
    of which, official financing3411.94.510.62.224.719.3
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1997–20014820.17.717.93.727.521.5
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries405.01.94.30.913.410.5
    Middle East and north Africa2110.54.019.23.97.55.8
    Countries in transitionWorldCountries in transitionWorldCountries in transitionWorld
    Countries in transition28100.06.3100.04.9100.06.4
    Central and eastern Europe1537.02.353.72.728.81.8
    CIS and Mongolia1363.03.946.32.371.24.6
    Russia42.82.731.41.636.42.3
    Excluding Russia1220.21.314.80.734.82.2

    The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs.

    Advanced economies excluding major advanced economies.

    Data and Conventions

    Data and projections for 182 countries form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook (the World Economic Outlook database). The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and area departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

    Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the national compilation of statistics, including the analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The World Economic Outlook database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

    The completion in 1993 of the comprehensive revision of the standardized System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA) and the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM) represented important improvements in the standards of economic statistics and analysis.2 The IMF was actively involved in both projects, particularly the new Balance of Payments Manual, which reflects the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions. Key changes introduced with the new Manual were summarized in Box 13 of the May 1994 World Economic Outlook. The process of adapting country balance of payments data to the definitions of the new BPM began with the May 1995 World Economic Outlook. However, full concordance with the BPM is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, and hence the World Economic Outlook estimates are still only partially adapted to the BPM.

    The members of the European Union have adopted a harmonized system for the compilation of the national accounts, referred to as ESA 1995. All national accounts data from 1995 onward are presented on the basis of the new system. Revision by national authorities of data prior to 1995 to conform to the new system has progressed, but has in some cases not been completed. In such cases, historical World Economic Outlook data have been carefully adjusted to avoid breaks in the series. Users of EU national accounts data prior to 1995 should nevertheless exercise caution until such time as the revision of historical data by national statistical agencies has been fully completed. See Box 1.2, Revisions in National Accounts Methodologies, in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook.

    Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change. Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the developing and transition country groups, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply.

    • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and the growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.

    • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities (PPPs) as a share of total world or group GDP.3

    • Composites for data relating to the domestic economy for the euro area (12 member countries throughout the entire period unless otherwise noted) are aggregates of national source data using weights based on 1995 ECU exchange rates.

    • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

    • Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

    For central and eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies (through 1990) are converted to U.S. dollars at the implicit U.S. dollar/ruble conversion rates obtained from each country’s national currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and for the ruble.

    Classification of Countries

    Summary of the Country Classification

    The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into three major groups: advanced economies, developing countries, and countries in transition.4 Rather than being based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, this classification has evolved over time with the objective of facilitating analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful organization of data. A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members, and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been compiled. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, whereas San Marino, among the advanced economies, is an example of an economy for which a database has not been completed. It should also be noted that, owing to a lack of data, only three of the former republics of the dissolved Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Slovenia) are included in the group composites for countries in transition.

    Each of the three main country groups is further divided into a number of subgroups. Among the advanced economies, the seven largest in terms of GDP, collectively referred to as the major advanced countries, are distinguished as a subgroup, and so are the 15 current members of the European Union, the 12 members of the euro area, and the four newly industrialized Asian economies. The developing countries are classified by region, as well as into a number of analytical and other groups. A regional breakdown is also used for the classification of the countries in transition.Table A provides an overview of these standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average 2002 shares of groups in aggregate PPP-valued GDP, total exports of goods and services, and population.

    General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

    Advanced Economies

    The 29 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The seven largest in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. The current members of the European Union (15 countries), the euro area (12 countries), and the newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables for the European Union and the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

    Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup
    Other Subgroups
    Major Currency AreasEuro area1/ European UnionNewly industrialized Asian economiesMajor advanced economiesOther advanced economies
    United StatesAustriaIrelandHong Kong SAR2CanadaAustraliaKorea
    Euro areaBelgiumLuxembourgKoreaFranceAustriaLuxembourg
    JapanDenmarkNetherlandsSingaporeGermanyBelgiumNetherlands
    FinlandPortugalTaiwan Province of ChinaItalyCyprusNew Zealand
    FranceSpainJapanDenmarkNorway
    GermanySwedenUnited KingdomFinlandPortugal
    GreeceUnited KingdomUnited StatesGreeceSingapore
    ItalyHong Kong SARSpain
    IcelandSweden
    IrelandSwitzerland
    IsraelTaiwan Province of China

    Italics indicate countries that are members of the euro area.

    On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

    In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the eastern Länder (i.e., the former German Democratic Republic). Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. Hence, in tables featuring data expressed as annual percent change, these apply to west Germany in years up to and including 1991, but to unified Germany from 1992 onward. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

    Developing Countries

    The group of developing countries (125 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as advanced economies or as countries in transition, together with a few dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.

    The regional breakdowns of developing countries in the World Economic Outlook conform to the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) classification—Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, and Western Hemisphere—with one important exception. Because all of the non-advanced countries in Europe except Malta and Turkey are included in the group of countries in transition, the World Economic Outlook classification places these two countries in a combined Middle East and Turkey region. In both classifications, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in this region, not in Africa. Three additional regional groupings—two of them constituting part of Africa and one a subgroup of Asia—are included in the World Economic Outlook because of their analytical significance. These are sub-Sahara, sub-Sahara excluding Nigeria and South Africa, and Asia excluding China and India.

    The developing countries are also classified according to analytical criteria and into other groups. The analytical criteria reflect countries’ composition of export earnings and other income from abroad, a distinction between net creditor and net debtor countries, and, for the net debtor countries, financial criteria based on external financing source and experience with external debt servicing. Included as “other groups” are the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), and Middle East and north Africa (MENA). The detailed composition of developing countries in the regional, analytical, and other groups is shown in Tables C through E.

    Table C.European Union Accession Candidates
    BulgariaLatviaSlovak Rep.
    CyprusLithuaniaSlovenia
    Czech Rep.MaltaTurkey
    EstoniaPoland
    HungaryRomania
    Table D.Developing Countries by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
    FuelNonfuel, of Which Primary Products
    Africa Sub-SaharaAngolaBotswana
    Congo, Rep. ofBurkina Faso
    Equatorial GuineaBurundi
    GabonChad
    NigeriaCongo, Democratic Rep. of
    Côte d’lvoire
    Ethiopia
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Liberia
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Namibia
    Niger
    Rwanda
    Sierra Leone
    Somalia
    Togo
    Uganda
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    North AfricaAlgeria
    Developing AsiaBrunei DarussalamPapua New Guinea Solomon Islands
    Middle East and TurkeyBahrainAfghanistan, Islamic State of
    Iran, Islamic Rep of
    Iraq
    Kuwait
    Libya
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen. Rep. of
    Western HemisphereVenezuelaBolivia
    Chile
    Guyana
    Table E.Developing Countries by Region and Main External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Countries
    By main external financing source
    CountriesNet debtor countriesOf which, official financing
    Africa
    Sub-Sahara
    Angola
    Benin
    Botswana
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cameroon
    Cape Verde
    Central African Rep.
    Chard
    Comoros
    Congo. Democratic Rep. of
    Congo, Rep. of
    Côte d’lvoire
    Djibouti
    Equatorial Guinea
    Eritrea
    Ethiopia
    Gabon
    Gambia, The
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Kenya
    Lesotho
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Mauritius
    Mozambique, Rep. of
    Namibia
    Niger
    Nigeria
    Rwanda
    São Tomé and Príncipe
    Senegal
    Seychelles
    Sierra Leone
    Somalia
    South Africa
    Sudan
    Swaziland
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Uganda
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    North Africa
    Algeria
    Morocco
    Tunisia
    Developing Asia
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh
    Bhutan
    Brunei Darussalam
    Cambodia
    China
    Fiji
    India
    Indonesia
    Kiribati
    Lao People’s Democratic Rep.
    Malaysia
    Maldives
    Myanmar
    Nepal
    Pakistan
    Papua New Guinea
    Philippines
    Samoa
    Solomon Islands
    Sri Lanka
    Thailand
    Tonga
    Vanuatu
    Vietnam
    Middle East and Turkey
    Bahrain
    Egypt
    Iran, Islamic Rep. of
    Iraq
    Jordan
    Kuwait
    Lebanon
    Libya
    Malta
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Syrian Arab Rep.
    Turkey
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen, Rep. of
    Western Hemisphere
    Antigua and Barbuda
    Argentina
    Bahamas, The
    Barbados
    Belize
    Bolivia
    Brazil
    Chile
    Colombia
    Costa Rica
    Dominica
    Dominican Rep.
    Ecuador
    El Salvador
    Grenada
    Guatemala
    Guyana
    Haiti
    Honduras
    Jamaica
    Mexico
    Netherlands Antilles
    Nicaragua
    Panama
    Paraguay
    Peru
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    St. Lucia
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines
    Suriname
    Trinidad and Tobago
    Uruguay
    Venezuela

    The first analytical criterion, by source of export earnings, distinguishes between categories: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68).

    The financial criteria focus on net creditor and net debtor countries, which are differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by official external financing and by experience with debt servicing.5

    The other groups of developing countries constitute the HIPCs and MENA countries. The first group comprises the countries (except Nigeria) considered by the IMF and the World Bank for their debt initiative, known as the HIPC Initiative.6 Middle East and north Africa, also referred to as the MENA countries, is a World Economic Outlook group, whose composition straddles the Africa and Middle East and Europe regions. It is defined as the Arab League countries plus the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    Countries in Transition

    The group of countries in transition (28 countries) is divided into two regional subgroups: central and eastern Europe, and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia. The detailed country composition is shown in Table F.

    Table F.Other Developing Country Groups
    CountriesHeavily Indebted Poor CountriesMiddle East and North Africa
    Africa
    Sub-Sahara
    Angola
    Benin
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cameroon
    Central African Rep.
    Chad
    Comoros
    Congo, Democratic Rep. of
    Congo, Rep. Of
    Côte d’Ivoire
    Ethiopia
    Gambia, The
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Kenya
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Mozambique, Rep. of
    Niger
    Rwanda
    Sào Tomé and Príncipe
    Senegal
    Sierra Leone
    Somalia
    Sudan
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Uganda
    Zambia
    North Africa
    Algeria
    Morocco
    Tunisia
    Developing Asia
    Lao People’s Democratic Rep.
    Myanmar
    Vietnam
    Middle East and Turkey
    Bahrain
    Egypt
    Iran, Islamic Rep. Of
    Iraq
    Jordan
    Kuwait
    Lebanon
    Libya
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Syrian Arab Rep.
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen, Rep. of
    Western Hemisphere
    Bolivia
    Guyana
    Honduras
    Nicaragua

    One common characteristic of these countries is the transitional state of their economies from a centrally administered system to one based on market principles. Another is that this transition involves the transformation of sizable industrial sectors whose capital stocks have proven largely obsolete. Although several other countries are also “in transition” from partially command-based economic systems toward market-based systems (including China, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Vietnam, and a number of African countries), most of these are largely rural, low-income economies for whom the principal challenge is one of economic development. These countries are therefore classified in the developing country group rather than in the group of countries in transition.

    Table G.Countries in Transition by Region
    Central and Eastern EuropeCommonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia
    AlbaniaLithuaniaArmenia
    Bosnia and HerzegovinaMacedonia, former Yugoslav Republic ofAzerbaijan
    BulgariaPolandBelarus
    CroatiaRomaniaGeorgia
    Czech RepublicSerbia and MontenegroKazakhstan
    EstoniaSlovak RepublicKyrgyz Republic
    HungarySloveniaMoldova
    LatviaMongolia
    Russia
    Tajikistan
    Turkmenistan
    Ukraine
    Uzbekistan

    List of Tables

    Output

    Inflation

    Financial Policies

    Foreign Trade

    Current Account Transactions

    Balance of Payments and External Financing

    External Debt and Debt Service

    Flow of Funds

    Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

    Output

    Table 1.Summary of World Output1(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985–941995–20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    World3.23.63.74.14.32.83.64.72.33.03.24.1
    Advanced economies3.02.62.83.03.42.73.43.80.91.81.92.9
    United States2.93.12.73.64.44.34.13.80.32.42.23.6
    Euro area2.12.21.42.32.92.83.51.40.81.12.3
    Japan23.41.11.83.51.9-1.10.22.80.40.30.810
    Other advanced economies3.83.44.33.64.21.94.85.01.52.92.73.3
    Developing countries5.15.16.16.65.93.53.95.73.94.65.05.8
    Regional groups
    Africa1.93.63.05.63.03.32.62.83.63.43.95.2
    Developing Asia7.76.69.08.36.64.06.16.85.76.56.36.5
    Middle East and Turkey32.94.24.35.16.63.80.85.81.44.55.14.9
    Western Hemisphere3.12.31.83.65.22.30.24.00.6−0.11.54.2
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel2.33.73.23.95.83.30.94.93.72.62.86.1
    Nonfuel5.55.36.46.96.03.54.25.84.04.85.25.8
    of which, primary products3.33.86.66.14.22.91.32.22.62.72.86.1
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries4.03.84.75.64.81.62.84.72.33.14.04.8
    of which, official financing4.53.86.16.24.2−2.52.44.34.03.74.35.2
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1997–20013.73.55.05.14.2−0.72.04.53.43.23.94.7
    Countries in transition−2.62.7−1.60.52.0−0.83.66.65.14.14.04.1
    Central and eastern Europe3.45.34.02.62.42.23.83.02.93.44.3
    Commonwealth of Independent
    States and Mongolia2.3−5.5−1.61.7−2.94.58.46.34.84.44.0
    Russia2.2−4.2−1.01.8−4.95.49.05.04.34.03.5
    Excluding Russia2.5−8.6−3.11.51.42.76.99.15.85.34.9
    Memorandum
    Median growth rate
    Advanced economies3.12.92.93.53.83.53.94.21.41.61.62.8
    Developing countries3.53.94.54.64.83.73.43.83.22.83.94.4
    Countries in transition−1.93.90.43.23.73.93.35.35.04.64.84.5
    Output per capita
    Advanced economies2.42.12.12.32.82.12.83.30.41.41.42.5
    Developing countries3.23.54.44.94.31.92.34.12.43.13.54.3
    Countries in transition−3.12.9−1.60.62.1−0.63.86.85.34.34.34.4
    World growth based on market exchange rates2.72.72.83.33.52.23.04.01.21.92.23.2
    Value of world output in billions of U.S. dollars
    At market exchange rates20,61431,49728,96429,67929,53029,55330,59131,39831,04732,12835,19336,893
    At purchasing power parities25,62643,50733,98936,02438,24939,72441,73544,58146,61648,44351,14954,562

    Real GDP.

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Includes Malta.

    Table 2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1985–941995–20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004200220032004
    Real GDP
    Advanced economies3.02.62.93.03.42.73.43.80.91.81.92.8
    United States2.93.12.73.64.44.34.13.80.32.42.23.62.92.64.0
    Euro area2.12.2142.32.92.83.51.40.81.12.31.31.32.4
    Germany2.71.41.70.81.42.02.02.90.60.20.51.90.70.71.6
    France2.12.21.81.11.93.53.24.21.81.21.22.41.71.52.8
    Italy2.11.82.91.12.01.81.73.11.80.4112.31.01.22.9
    Spain2.93.22.82.44.04.34.24.22.72.02.23.11.92.53.4
    Netherlands2.62.53.03.03.94.34.03.41.20.3061.80.50.82.4
    Belgium2.32.12.41.23.62.03.23.70.80.7112.21.61.12.9
    Austria2.62.11.62.01.63.92.73.50.70.91.52.4
    Finland1.23.63.84.06.35.34.15.60.71.62.128242.43.0
    Greece1.73.52.12.43.63.43.64.24.14.03.63.6
    Portugal3.32.62.93.54.04.63.83.71.60.5-0.31.8-1.33.11.5
    Ireland3.77.89.98.110.98.811.110.05.75.93.34.55.65.24.0
    Luxembourg6.14.43.53.77.77.56.08.91.00.51.54.0
    Japan23.41.11.83.51.9-1.10.22.80.40.30.81.02.8-0.31.7
    United Kingdom2.62.52.92.63.42.92.43.12.01.62.02.52.12.22.0
    Canada2.53.32.81.64.24.15.44.51.53.42.83.23.93.03.1
    Korea8.25.38.96.85.0-6.710.99.33.06.15.05.36.54.02.8
    Australia3.23.73.54.33.85.34.52.82.73.83.03.73.03.83.6
    Taiwan Province of China8.04.36.46.16.74.65.45.9-2.23.53.23.74.24.53.8
    Sweden1.72.74.01.32.43.64.64.41.11.91.62.11.32.22.2
    Switzerland1.61.30.50.31.72.41.52.91.10.10.61.71.00.32.4
    Hong Kong SAR6.23.03.94.35.1-5.03.410.20.62.33.03.35.10.75.0
    Denmark1.82.32.82.53.02.52.62.81.41.61.42.11.12.12.3
    Norway2.82.94.65.35.22.62.12.41.41.61.52.0
    Israel5.12.86.84.73.33.02.67.4-0.9-1.00.52.20.20.93.1
    Singapore7.84.58.08.18.5-0.96.49.4-2.42.23.03.52.84.94.8
    New Zealand2.23.04.33.91.9-0.24.03.92.44.22.73.04.13.02.6
    Cyprus5.53.86.11.92.55.04.85.24.12.02.24.3
    Iceland2.13.10.15.24.65.53.95.52.9-0.51.62.9
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.82.42.42.83.22.82.93.50.71.61.72.82.41.73.1
    European Union2.42.22.51.72.63.02.83.51.61.01.32.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies7.84.77.56.35.8-2.48.08.40.84.64.14.55.74.13.6
    Real total domestic demand
    Advanced economies3.12.72.73.03.23.04.03.80.81.52.02.9
    United States2.83.52.53.74.75.45.04.40.43.02.63.73.72.64.1
    Euro area1.92.11.01.83.63.52.90.90.21.12.40.81.42.6
    Germany2.71.01.70.30.62.42.81.8-0.8-1.50.62.3-0.40.52.4
    France2.12.21.70.70.64.13.64.31.61.11.22.71.51.82.8
    Italy2.02.02.00.92.73.13.22.31.81.11.32.11.91.32.3
    Japan23.41.12.44.00.9−1.50.32.311−0.30.60.71.8−0.41.3
    United Kingdom2.73.12.03.13.95.03.74.02.42.42.72.42.82.12.5
    Canada2.43.11.20.95.72.44.45.01.33.53.62.76.02.82.4
    Other advanced economies4.23.14.63.83.71.15.24.60.82.12.33.3
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.82.62.22.83.13.53.73.60.81.71.92.82.71.73.1
    European Union2.52.22.21.52.34.03.53.21.20.71.52.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.43.37.66.74.1−9.37.97.5−1.02.72.64.93.93.85.3

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Table 3.Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985–941995–20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Private consumer expenditure
    Advanced economies3.22.82.62.82.82.94.03.52.32.31.82.6
    United States3.13.53.03.23.64.84.94.32.53.12.33.4
    Euro area2.01.91.61.63.03.52.51.80.61.32.2
    Germany2.91.42.11.00.61.83.71.41.5-0.6082.1
    France1.82.11.31.30.13.63.52.82.81.81.62.3
    Italy2.32.01.71.23.23.22.62.71.00.41.42.3
    Japan13.51.01.82.31.1-0.10.20.91.71.40.20.5
    United Kingdom3.23.51.93.83.83.84.55.23.83.92.12.1
    Canada2.63.02.12.64.62.83.93.72.62.93.02.4
    Other advanced economies4.13.23.83.93.71.55.14.52.22.52.13.0
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies3.02.62.32.52.63.33.73.32.32.21.72.5
    European Union2.62.31.92.02.13.33.73.12.11.31.52.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.14.26.96.35.4-5.07.97.22.83.73.04.5
    Public consumption
    Advanced economies2.42.11.11.71.41.72.62.72.83.32.02.0
    United States2.02.40.51.81.42.92.83.74.42.93.1
    Euro area1.50.71.71.31.42.02.02.12.50.90.8
    Germany170.91.51.80.31.91.01.20.81.5-1.0-0.3
    France2.51.72.22.11.52.92.43.51.91.0
    Italy1.80.9-2.11.10.30.31.41.73.51.70.80.6
    Japan13.02.74.22.91.02.14.44.72.52.31.51.5
    United Kingdom0.92.31.71.20.11.53.12.12.34.23.63.0
    Canada2.11.4−0.6−1.2−1.03.21.92.33.32.01.92.3
    Other advanced economies3.62.42.13.62.52.52.22.42.12.81.71.6
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.12.10.81.21.21.52.72.83.03.42.12.2
    European Union2.01.70.91.61.01.62.12.12.22.71.31.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.02.12.67.83.51.5−0.41.81.11.80.71.1
    Gross fixed capital formation
    Advanced economies3.43.34.05.75.55.55.15.1−1.6−1.82.03.9
    United States2.84.95.48.48.810.27.95.5−2.7−1.82.95.0
    Euro area2.22.51.32.55.25.94.9−0.6−2.50.13.1
    Germany3.3−0.1−0.6−0.80.63.04.12.5−5.3−6.7−0.64.0
    France2.32.82.20.1−0.27.38.38.32.6−0.6−1.42.3
    Italy1.03.66.03.62.14.05.07.12.60.52.12.7
    Japan14.30.20.56.90.7−4.1−0.72.7−1.2−4.00.50.8
    United Kingdom2.83.23.14.76.912.80.61.90.8−4.53.13.2
    Canada3.14.6−2.14.415.22.47.86.51.72.54.44.6
    Other advanced economies5.13.77.15.36.12.94.26.2−1.80.42.54.5
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies3.03.23.25.85.56.25.44.8−1.5−2.41.93.7
    European Union2.72.83.52.43.46.95.15.00.2−2.40.83.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies10.32.210.37.04.5−9.30.310.4−6.9−1.02.66.4
    Final domestic demand
    Advanced economies3.12.72.63.23.13.13.93.81.61.61.92.8
    United States2.83.63.03.74.35.35.24.31.62.42.53.6
    Euro area2.01.81.61.73.23.72.91.30.31.02.1
    Germany2.71.01.30.70.52.13.31.6-0.2-1.50.22.0
    France2.12.21.21.30.53.43.93.92.61.71.12.0
    Italy2.02.11.71.72.42.82.93.41.80.71.42.1
    Japan13.61.01.83.71.0−0.90.62.01.10.10.50.7
    United Kingdom2.63.22.13.53.64.93.54.03.02.52.52.4
    Canada2.63.00.72.15.42.84.34.02.52.63.12.8
    Other advanced economies4.43.24.54.23.91.44.24.81.22.12.43.3
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.82.62.23.02.93.53.83.61.61.51.82.7
    European Union2.52.31.91.92.13.63.63.31.70.91.42.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.43.47.56.94.7−6.04.47.5−0.12.12.64.7
    Stock building2
    Advanced economies0.1−0.20.2−0.1−0.70.20.20.1
    United States−0.40.40.2−0.20.1−1.20.60.2
    Euro area0.3−0.50.10.4−0.2−0.4−0.10.10.2
    Germany0.3−0.50.3−0.40.2−0.60.10.40.3
    France0.6−0.60.10.7−0.30.4−1.0−0.60.10.7
    Italy0.2−0.70.30.30.3−1.10.4−0.1
    Japan10.60.3−0.6−0.30.3−0.40.1
    United Kingdom0.1−0.1−0.40.30.10.2−0.7−0.10.1
    Canada0.11.1−0.70.7−0.30.10.5−1.51.20.2−0.1
    Other advanced economies0.2−0.3−0.3−0.60.8−0.1−0.40.10.10.1
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies0.1−0.20.30.1−0.20.1−0.80.30.20.1
    European Union0.2−0.50.10.3−0.1−0.1−0.5−0.10.10.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies0.1−0.10.2−0.1−0.6−3.22.6−0.80.60.1
    Foreign balance2
    Advanced economies−0.10.10.2−0.3−0.50.10.1−0.2
    United States0.1−0.50.1−0.2−0.3−1.2−1.0−0.8−0.2−0.6−0.4−0.2
    Euro area0.20.20.40.6−0.6−0.60.60.50.6−0.1−0.1
    Germany0.40.10.50.8−0.4−0.71.01.41.6−0.1−0.3
    France0.10.10.41.2−0.5−0.4−0.10.20.1−02
    Italy0.1−0.21.00.2−0.6−1.2−1.40.90.1−0.7−0.10.2
    Japan1−0.10.1−0.5−0.41.00.3−0.10.5−0.70.70.20.3
    United Kingdom−0.2−0.70.9−0.4−0.5−2.2−1.4−1.1−0.6−1.0−0.8−0.2
    Canada−0.10.31.00.3−1.71.71.10.20.6−0.60.7
    Other advanced economies−0.20.60.20.91.40.31.10.80.60.20.2
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies−0.20.2−0.10.1−0.7−0.7−0.2−0.1−0.1−0.3−0.1
    European Union−0.10.40.20.3−1.0−0.70.30.40.3−0.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies−0.11.70.2−0.11.86.51.51.91.82.01.30.3

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

    Table 4.Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real Per Capita GDP(Percent)
    Ten-Year Averages1
    1985–941995–20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Unemployment rate
    Advanced economies6.86.67.17.16.96.86.45.95.96.46.66.5
    United States26.45.15.65.44.94.54.24.04.85.86.25.9
    Euro area9.410.710.910.910.29.48.48.08.38.88.7
    Germany6.38.58.08.79.69.18.47.87.88.28.88.8
    France10.310.411.712.312.311.811.29.68.68.89.19.1
    Italy11.010.611.611.611.711.811.410.69.59.09.39.1
    Spain19.815.722.922.220.818.715.713.910.511.411.410.9
    Netherlands7.14.17.16.65.54.23.22.62.02.33.44.3
    Belgium8.58.39.79.59.29.38.66.96.77.37.77.8
    Austria3.34.13.94.44.44.53.93.63.64.14.54.1
    Finland7.711.115.414.612.611.410.29.89.19.39.59.1
    Greece8.010.39.19.89.811.111.911.110.49.99.89.7
    Portugal6.15.77.27.36.75.04.44.04.15.16.87.0
    Ireland15.56.912.111.59.87.45.64.33.94.45.35.3
    Luxembourg1.73.03.03.33.33.12.92.62.62.83.23.3
    Japan32.54.53.23.43.44.14.74.75.05.45.55.4
    United Kingdom9.16.38.78.27.16.36.05.55.15.25.45.3
    Canada9.68.09.49.69.18.37.66.87.27.67.66.9
    Korea2.93.72.12.12.67.06.44.23.83.03.03.0
    Australia8.47.08.28.28.37.77.06.36.76.36.05.7
    Taiwan Province of China1.83.51.82.62.72.72.93.04.65.24.94.8
    Sweden3.65.77.78.08.06.55.64.74.04.04.24.2
    Switzerland1.73.64.24.75.23.92.72.01.92.84.34.0
    Hong Kong SAR1.95.03.22.82.24.76.24.95.17.37.06.6
    Denmark9.66.310.08.57.76.45.55.14.95.05.25.1
    Norway4.33.95.04.94.13.23.23.43.63.94.24.0
    Israel8.48.76.86.67.68.58.98.89.410.310.710.1
    Singapore3.23.22.72.01.83.23.53.13.34.44.54.0
    New Zealand7.06.06.36.16.77.56.86.05.35.25.45.3
    Cyprus2.83.22.63.13.43.43.63.43.03.23.43.3
    Iceland2.02.95.04.43.92.81.91.31.42.53.02.5
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies6.76.46.76.86.66.46.15.75.96.56.86.6
    European Union9.59.010.710.810.69.99.18.27.47.78.080
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.53.72.12.32.65.45.33.94.14.14.03.9
    Growth in employment
    Advanced economies1.51.11.11.21.51.01.42.00.70.20.61.1
    United States1.61.31.51.52.31.51.52.5−0.31.01.4
    Euro area1.30.50.50.81.81.82.24.50.40.30.7
    Germany3.50.30.1−0.3−0.21.11.21.80.4−0.6−0.7
    France0.21.10.90.40.41.52.02.52.10.80.30.4
    Italy−0.20.9−0.60.50.41.11.31.92.11.50.10.8
    Japan31.1−0.20.10.41.1−0.7−0.8−0.3−0.5−1.3−0.50.6
    United Kingdom0.30.91.10.91.71.01.31.10.70.70.20.5
    Canada1.52.31.90.82.32.72.82.61.12.23.13.7
    Other advanced economies1.51.82.22.31.71.12.32.91.61.31.11.4
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies1.40.90.80.81.41.01.11.70.4−0.10.41.0
    European Union1.21.20.81.01.01.91.92.11.50.60.20.7
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.81.42.32.11.8−2.91.53.20.91.91.51.5
    Growth in real per capita GDP
    Advanced economies2.42.12.12.32.82.12.83.30.41.41.42.5
    United States182.01.52.43.23.12.92.6−0.81.41.22.6
    Euro area1.92.01.22.12.72.63.10.90.60.92.1
    Germany−0.21.31.40.51.22.02.02.70.40.51.9
    France1.51.81.50.71.53.22.83.71.30.80.82.0
    Italy1.91.62.70.91.81.71.62.91.50.21.02.2
    Japan33.00.91.63.11.6−1.42.60.20.10.60.9
    United Kingdom2.32.22.72.43.22.72.12.91.41.11.42.0
    Canada1.22.31.70.53.13.24.53.60.52.41.62.0
    Other advanced economies3.13.03.63.23.71.74.54.81.12.32.12.9
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.21.91.72.12.62.22.42.90.21.21.22.3
    European Union2.12.12.11.42.42.82.73.41.50.91.22.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.73.76.35.24.7−3.56.97.4−0.13.83.33.7

    Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

    The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the new survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Table 5Developing Countries: Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985–941995–20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Developing countries5.15.16.16.65.93.53.95.73.94.65.05.8
    Regional groups
    Africa1.93.63.05.63.03.32.62.83.63.43.95.2
    Sub-Sahara1.83.73.85.23.72.62.72.93.53.43.85.4
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa1.94.24.45.44.43.83.32.44.04.13.86.7
    Developing Asia7.76.69.08.36.64.06.16.85.76.56.36.5
    China10.28.210.59.68.87.87.18.07.38.07.57.5
    India5.45.87.67.55.05.86.75.44.24.95.15.9
    Other developing Asia5.83.87.66.73.8−5.13.65.33.34.44.44.7
    Middle East and Turkey2.94.24.35.16.63.80.85.81.44.55.14.9
    Western Hemisphere3.12.31.83.65.22.30.24.00.6−0.11.54.2
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel2.33.73.23.95.83.30.94.93.72.62.86.1
    Nonfuel5.55.36.46.96.03.54.25.84.04.85.25.8
    of which, primary products3.33.86.66.14.22.91.32.22.62.72.86.1
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries4.03.84.75.64.81.62.84.72.33.14.04.8
    of which, official financing4.63.86.16.24.2−2.52.44.34.03.74.35.2
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experieoce
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1997-20013.73.55.05.14.2−0.72.04.53.43.23.94.7
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries2.25.05.86.05.23.94.34.24.84.84.66.6
    Middle East and north Africa2.54.32.85.05.34.52.84.94.13.85.04.8
    Memorandum
    Real per capita GDP
    Developing countries3.23.54.44.94.31.92.34.12.43.13.54.3
    Regional groups
    Africa−0.91.20.43.10.50.90.20.31.20.91.52.8
    Developing Asia5.95.27.56.85.12.64.75.44.35.25.05.3
    Middle East and Turkey0.22.12.12.94.41.7−1.33.8−0.62.53.12.9
    Western Hemisphere1.20.80.12.03.60.7−1.42.4−0.9−1.60.12.8
    Table 6.Developing Countries—by Country: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1985–941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Africa1.93.05.63.03.32.62.83.63.43.95.2
    Algeria0.53.83.81.15.13.22.42.13.13.54.3
    Angola−1.510.411.27.96.83.33.03.217.14.710.6
    Benin2.54.65.95.84.64.75.65.05.85.66.5
    Botswana8.14.55.76.75.96.38.64.92.63.73.6
    Burkina Faso4.34.57.54.86.46.3−1.65.65.24.75.7
    Burundi2.6−7.9−8.04.7−0.9−1.12.24.14.56.1
    Cameroon−173.35.05.15.04.44.25.34.34.75.0
    Cape Verde4.77.56.77.28.08.96.64.04.65.05.0
    Central African Republic1.14.9−8.17.53.93.61.61.02.03.34.7
    Chad4.60.43.14.27.72.31.08.510.913.651.5
    Comoros0.58.9−1.34.21.21.9−1.11.92.52.73.5
    Congo. Dem. Rep. of−3.70.7−1.0−5.6−1.6−4.3−6.9−2.13.05.06.0
    Congo. Rep. of4.64.04.3−0.63.7−3.08.23.63.51.46.8
    Côte d’Ivoire1.27.17.75.74.81.6−2.30.10.5−2.03.0
    Djibouti−0.9−3.5−4.1−0.70.12.20.71.92.63.63.7
    Equatorial Guinea2.914.331.880.714.630.615.245.131.211.67.0
    Eritrea2.99.37.91.8−13.110.21.68.67.8
    Ethiopia1.46.210.64.7−1.46.05.47.75.0−2.06.4
    Gabon2.05.03.65.73.5−8.9−1.92.0−0.11.12.9
    Gambia, The3.7−3.46.14.93.56.45.55.94.76.26.0
    Ghana4.94.04.64.24.74.43.74.24.54.75.0
    Guinea4.14.75.15.04.84.62.13.64.24.54.6
    Guinea-Bissau3.04.44.65.5−28.18.09.50.2−4.23.93.3
    Kenya3.54.44.22.11.61.3−0.11.21.21.83.1
    Lesotho5.15.99.54.8−3.50.51.93.64.24.24.4
    Liberia
    Madagascar1.21.72.13.73.9474.66.6−1197.86.0
    Malawi1.516.77.33.83.34.01.1−4.21.86.55.2
    Mali2.57.04.36.74.96.73.71.59.6−0.46.6
    Mauritania2.94.65.53.23.74.16.34.64.25.35.7
    Mauritius7.23.55.26.06.05.32.67.25.34.95.2
    Morocco4.0−6.612.2−2.27.7−0.11.06.54.55.53.4
    Mozambique. Rep. of4.04.37.111.112.67.51.613.89.97.011.9
    Namibia3.74.13.24.23.33.33.32.42.73.74.7
    Niger2.12.63.42.810.4−0.6−1.47.13.04.04.1
    Nigeria3.92.46.53.11.61.03.92.80.56.74.2
    Rwanda−7.035.212.713.88.97.66.06.77.36.16.2
    São Tomé and Príncipe0.82.01.51.02.52.53.04.05.05.05.0
    Senegal2.15.25.15.05.75.05.65.62.46.65.6
    Seychelles5.30.510.012.25.7−2.8−5.4−8.1−2.4−0.60.9
    Sierra Leone−1.1−10.0−24.8−17.6−0.8−8.13.85.46.66.56.8
    Somalia
    South Africa0.83.14.32.60.82.03.52.83.02.83.2
    Sudan3.33.06.39.35.76.96.95.35.05.86.2
    Swaziland6.53.83.93.83.33.52.01.81.62.01.7
    Tanzania3.83.64.53.53.73.55.15.65.96.06.0
    Togo1.16.99.74.3−2.12.9−1.92.72.63.84.4
    Tunisia3.72.47.15.44.86.14.75.21.95.06.0
    Uganda4.811.98.65.14.77.95.35.56.65.76.2
    Zambia−0.4−2.56.53.4−1.92.23.64.93.04.14.0
    Zimbabwe3.50.29.71.40.8−4.1−6.8−8.8−12.8−11.05.1
    Developing Asia7.79.08.36.64.06.16.85.76.56.36.5
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh4.04.85.05.35.04.95.95.34.45.25.5
    Bhutan6.47.45.27.26.47.65.36.67.77.37.6
    Brunei Darussalam2.11.03.6−4.02.62.80.83.05.1
    Cambodia5.94.64.32.16.97.76.34.55.06.0
    China10.210.59.68.87.87.18.07.38.07.57.5
    Fiji2.62.53.1−0.91.59.5−3.24.34.45.23.2
    India5.47.67.55.05.86.75.44.24.95.15.9
    Indonesia6.88.28.04.5−13.10.84.93.43.73.54.0
    Kiribati0.75.94.11.66.62.1−1.71.52.72.52.0
    Lao P.D. Republic5.27.06.96.94.07.35.85.75.76.06.5
    Malaysia7.19.810.07.3−7.46.18.30.44.25.05.8
    Maldives8.17.49.110.49.87.24.83.54.33.23.5
    Myanmar1.37.26.45.75.810.913.710.55.55.14.3
    Nepal5.73.35.35.32.94.56.24.80.83.85.5
    Pakistan5.34.92.91.83.14.03.53.64.65.05.1
    Papua New Guinea5.6−3.37.7−3.9−3.87.6−0.8−3.41.22.83.3
    Philippines2.24.75.85.2−0.63.44.43.24.64.04.0
    Samoa2.26.47.30.82.42.66.96.21.93.54.0
    Solomon Islands4.410.53.5−2.31.1−1.3−14.0−3.0−0.51.52.5
    Sri Lanka4.35.53.86.44.74.36.0−1.43.75.56.0
    Thailand9.09.25.9−1.4−10.54.44.61.95.24.24.3
    Tonga2.43.2−0.2−0.11.63.16.23.02.93.33.5
    Vanuatu2.47.42.52.43.0−2.12.5−1.9−0.32.02.8
    Vietnam6.19.59.38.23.54.25.55.05.86.27.0
    Middle East and Turkey2.94.35.16.63.80.85.81.44.55.14.9
    Bahrain3.63.94.13.14.84.35.34.84.14.14.3
    Egypt3.04.54.95.94.56.35.13.52.03.03.5
    Iran, Islamic Republic of1.52.96.66.03.71.85.25.76.06.55.9
    iraq
    Jordan3.56.22.13.33.0114.24.24.95.05.5
    Kuwait0.316.05.12.32.4−2.51.4−1.1−0.92.02.1
    Lebanon−2.16.54.04.03.01.0−0.52.02.03.03.0
    Libya−1.0−0.33.35.2−3.60.74.40.61.72.32.8
    Malta5.46.24.04.93.44.16.1−0.82.72.83.3
    Oman5.34.82.96.22.7−0.25.17.31.94.13.2
    Qatar−0.52.94.825.46.25.311.67.23.04.08.2
    Saudi Arabia2.90.51.42.62.8−0.84.91.22.14.03.1
    Syrian Arab Republic4.57.34.74.16.3−090.67.22.72.83.0
    Turkey4.26.96.97.63.1−4.77.4−7.56.75.15.0
    United Arab Emirates2.47.96.26.7433.95.0−9.4−0.97.24.0
    Yemen. Republic of10.95.98.96.52.74.43.44.34.24.7
    Western Hemisphere3.11.83.65.22.30.24.00.6−0.11.54.2
    Antigua and Barbuda6.2−5.06.15.63.93.22.5−0.6−3.71.010
    Argentina2.3−2.85.58.13.8−3.4−0.8−4.4−11.03.04.5
    Bahamas, The1.40.34.23.33.05.95.0−0.52.92.5
    Barbados0.72.32.52.94.42.53.0−2.7−1.81.62.3
    Belize6.84.00.73.83.14.111.25.33.54.54.4
    Bolivia2.94.74.45.05.20.42.41.22.52.94.3
    Brazil2.94.22.73.30.10.84.41.41.52.83.5
    Chile7.010.87.46.63.2−1.04.42.82.03.14.8
    Colombia4.35.22.13.40.6−4.22.71.41.62.03.3
    Costa Rica4.63.90.95.68.48.21.81.12.82.02.5
    Dominica3.81.63.12.02.81.60.7−4.6−3.6−1.00.5
    Dominican Republic2.84.77.28.37.38.07.22.83.81.73.0
    Ecuador3.01.72.44.12.1−6.32.85.13.03.55.2
    El Salvador3.76.41.84.33.83.42.21.82.32.52.8
    Grenada3.93.13.14.07.37.56.43.5−1.85.05.0
    Guatemala3.04.93.04.45.03.83.62.32.02.83.5
    Guyana2.35.07.96.2−1.73.0−1.31.41.82.73.0
    Haiti−2.39.94.12.72.22.70.9−1.11.03.0
    Honduras3.34.13.65.02.9−1.95.23.32.02.02.5
    Jamaica2.40.5−1.2−1.4−0.4−0.20.91.12.52.52.5
    Mexico2.5−6.25.26.85.03.66.6−0.30.92.33.7
    Netherlands Antilles2.01.12.10.9−0.7−1.5−1.9−0.60.71.52.0
    Nicaragua−1.84.24.75.14.17.45.93.31.03.04.5
    Panama2.71.82.84.54.43.22.50.30.51.53.0
    Paraguay3.54.71.32.6−0.40.5−0.42.7−3.9−1.020
    Peru1.48.62.56.7−0.51.03.10.65.24.04.5
    St. Kitts and Nevis5.43.70.812.91.13.53.42.2−3.03.44.5
    St. Lucia6.44.11.40.63.13.50.70.5−4.02.03.0
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines4.96.81.43.95.23.01.30.91.12.22.8
    Suriname−2.77.212.37.04.1−2.0−1.04.92.73.84.3
    Trinidad and Tobago−1.24.03.83.14.86.84.84.55.25.55.0
    Uruguay4.2−1.45.65.04.8−2.8−1.4−3.1−10.8−2.04.5
    Venezuela2.64.0−0.26.40.2−6.13.22.8−8.9−17.013.4

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    Table 7.Countries in Transition: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1985–941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Central and eastern Europe5.34.02.62.42.23.63.02.93.44.3
    Albania−2.18.99.1−7.07.97.37.86.54.76.06.0
    Bosnia and Herzegovina16.460.830.415.69.65.64.53.94.75.5
    Bulgaria−3.2−1.8−6.0−5.64.02.35.44.04.05.05.5
    Croatia6.86.06.82.5−0.92.93.85.04.24.5
    Czech Republic5.94.3−0.8−1.00.53.33.12.01.93.3
    Estonia4.33.99.84.6−0.67.15.05.04.95.2
    Hungary−1.11.51.34.64.94.25.23.83.33.63.9
    Latvia−0.83.78.44.82.86.87.96.15.56.0
    Lithuania3.34.77.35.1−3.93.85.95.95.35.7
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep of−1.11.21.43.44.34.5−4.10.13.04.0
    Poland1.36.86.06.84.84.14.01.01.32.64.1
    Romania−2.57.33.9−6.1−4.8−1.22.15.74.94.95.0
    Serbia and Montenegro2.5−16.05.05.54.05.05.0
    Slovak Republic6.55.85.64.01.32.23.34.44.04.2
    Slovenia4.93.54.63.85.24.63.02.93.23.6
    Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia−5.5−1.61.7−2.94.58.46.34.84.44.0
    Russia−4.2−1.01.8−4.95.49.05.04.34.03.5
    Excluding Russia−8.6−3.11.51.42.76.99.15.85.34.9
    Armenia6.95.93.37.33.36.09.612.97.06.0
    Azerbaijan−11.81.35.810.07.411.19.910.69.28.8
    Belarus−10.42.811.48.43.45.84.74.74.03.5
    Georgia2.610.510.62.93.01.94.55.44.84.5
    Kazakhstan−8.30.51.6−1.92.79.813.59.58.58.0
    Kyrgyz Republic−5.87.19.92.13.75.45.3−0.55.25.0
    Moldova−1.4−5.91.7−6.5−3.42.16.17.25.05.0
    Mongolia0.46.32.44.03.53.21.11.03.45.05.2
    Tajikistan−12.5−4.41.75.33.78.310.27.56.04.0
    Turkmenistan−7.2−6.7−11.37.016.518.020.5
    Ukraine−12.2−10.0−3.0−1.9−0.25.99.24.64.54.0
    Uzbekistan−0.91.62.52.13.43.33.82.83.14.0
    Memorandum
    EU accession candidates5.84.84.12.60.24.93.93.94.5

    Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

    Inflation

    Table 8.Summary of Inflation(percent)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985–941995–20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies3.71.52.31.91.71.40.81.31.71.21.51.6
    United States3.01.82.21.91.91.21.42.12.41.11.82.1
    Euro area1.92.92.21.61.71.11.32.42.42.01.7
    Japan11.4−1.0−0.5−0.80.3−0.1−1.5−1.9−1.6−1.7−1.3−0.9
    Other advanced economies5.42.03.12.92.42.00.81.91.71.22.01.9
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies3.82.02.62.42.11.51.42.32.21.51.91.7
    United States3.62.42.82.92.31.52.23.42.81.62.32.3
    Euro area21.92.72.21.61.11.12.32.62.32.01.5
    Japan11.6−0.2−0.11.70.6−0.3−0.9−0.7−0.9−0.7−0.6
    Other advanced economies5.92.43.83.22.42.61.02.22.41.72.32.0
    Developing countries49.29.223.215.39.810.26.65.85.85.45.85.1
    Regional groups
    Africa28.115.335.430.314.59.012.314.213.09.310.17.6
    Developing Asia11.04.813.28.24.87.72.51.82.71.92.33.3
    Middle East and Turkey21.322.139.129.628.127.523.619.517.118.413.010.3
    Western Hemisphere191.212.235.620.912.49.27.46.86.48.711.06.9
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel14.619.543.135.419.617.316.813.411.812.915.113.8
    Nonfuel54.88.121.213.38.89.55.65.05.24.64.94.2
    of which, primary products49.317.634.531.016.89.817.522.318.68.011.39.4
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries70.411.924.917.312.515.610.28.58.68.58.36.3
    of which, official financing22.413.522.015.610.225.113.68.112.910.09.88.8
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1997–2001163.515.440.220.611.717.812.310.512.310.712.28.4
    Countries in transition97.129.9133.842.527.421.544.420.716.311.19.47.4
    Central and eastern Europe15.124.723.342.017.211.012.99.75.64.64.7
    Commonwealth of Independent
    States and Mongolia39.6235.755.919.024.571.225.820.414.512.39.1
    Russia38.1198.047.914.727.885.720.620.716.013.49.7
    Excluding Russia43.4338.975.529617.943.537.419.811.510.07.6
    Memorandum
    Median inflation rate
    Advanced economies3.92.12.52.21.81.71.52.72.72.22.42.0
    Developing countries9.55.210.07.26.25.53.93.94.43.54.03.5
    Countries in transition146.413.041.524.114.89.98.010.07.44.84.84.9

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

    Table 9.Advanced Economies: GDP Deflators and Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1985–941995–20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004200220032004
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies3.71.52.31.91.71.40.81.31.71.21.51.6
    United States3.01.82.21.91.91.21.42.12.41.11.82.11.32.02.1
    Euro area1.92.92.21.61.71.11.32.42.42.01.72.02.01.6
    Germany2.91.02.01.00.71.10.5−0.31.41.6111.20.91.312
    France3.21.31.71.41.30.90.50.51.51.71.81.41.72.01.1
    Italy6.42.95.05.32.42.71.62.12.72.72.41.72.32.31.6
    Spain6.73.54.93.52.32.42.73.54.24.43.82.94.63.32.8
    Netherlands1.52.62.01.22.01.71.54.15.33.32.52.32.82.52.2
    Belgium3.11.51.31.21.31.71.41.32.02.11.41.21.01.80.9
    Austria2.91.32.51.30.90.50.71.41.62.21.30.5
    Finland4.11.94.1−0.22.13.0−0.23.22.22.11.61.6
    Greece15.95.111.27.46.85.23.03.43.43.73.82.9
    Portugal12.24.07.63.03.63.83.13.24.84.63.32.64.32.62.6
    Ireland3.34.23.02.14.16.24.14.35.36.4363.2
    Luxembourg2.52.54.31.63.32.13.12.82.30.92.22.2
    Japan21.4−1.0−0.5−0.80.3−0.1−1.5−1.9−1.6−1.7−1.3−0.9−2.4−0.4−1.1
    United Kingdom5.02.72.63.32.92.92.52.22.33.02.82.32.92.33.0
    Canada3.01.72.31.61.2−0.41.73.91.01.22.71.94.21.91.9
    Korea7.22.07.13.93.15.1−2.0−1.11.3−0.20.23.2−2.50.13.2
    Australia4.62.31.92.11.50.50.74.13.52.34.62.22.84.62.1
    Taiwan Province of China2.50.72.03.11.72.6−1.4−1.70.6−1.10.80.8−1.90.90.8
    Sweden5.41.53.41.21.50.80.71.32.01.31.71.31.01.51.2
    Switzerland3.10.61.10.4−0.20.71.41.20.40.40.7−0.2040.7
    Hong Kong SAR8.1−0.52.55.95.70.2−5.9−6.2−1.4−2.8−1.6−0.8−4.0−01−1.1
    Denmark3.52.01.82.52.21.01.83.12.01.11.92.21.12.32.2
    Norway2.93.52.64.02.9−0.76.716.01.7−1.34.9−0.8
    Israel33.95.49.810.99.06.96.41.32.14.62.81.07.72.111
    Singapore2.30.62.21.10.42.4−5.54.5−1.20.20.91.71.01.32.1
    New Zealand6.01.72.02.01.51.30.72.34.20.5−0.32.8−2.42.12.4
    Cyprus4.72.93.61.92.62.32.24.22.43.04.52.0
    Iceland14.74.02.82.03.34.92.92.99.17.41.33.1
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies3.11.41.91.61.51.10.91.21.51.0141.51.01.61.4
    European Union4.62.13.12.51.92.01.41.62.42.52.21.8
    Newly industrialized Asian economies5.61.24.73.72.83.5−2.5−1.50.6−0.70.21.9−2.20.42.0
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies3.82.02.62.42.11.51.42.32.21.51.91.7
    United States3.62.42.82.92.31.52.23.42.81.62.32.32.22.22.4
    Euro area31.92.72.21.61.11.12.32.62.3201.52.31.71.6
    Germany32.51.31.71.21.50.60.72.12.41.31.00.71.10.91.1
    France33.11.61.82.11.30.70.61.81.81.92.01.62.01.52.6
    Italy35.82.75.24.11.92.01.72.62.72.62.41.62.92.01.5
    Japan21.6−0.2−0.11.70.6−0.3−0.9−0.7−0.9−0.7−0.6−0.4−0.7−0.5
    United Kingdom44.82.52.83.02.82.72.32.12.12.22.82.72.62.82.6
    Canada3.52.01.91.61.61.01.82.72.52.03.12.13.42.52.0
    Other advanced economies6.12.53.83.22.32.41.32.42.82.42.42.1
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies3.31.82.22.22.01.31.52.22.11.31.71.61.81.61.8
    European Union34.32.12.92.51.91.51.42.32.52.32.21.8
    Newly industrialized Asian economies4.82.44.64.33.44.41.11.91.01.8191.21.82.0

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

    Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

    Retail price index excluding mortgage interest.

    Table 10.Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985–941995–20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Hourly earnings
    Advanced economies5.53.23.33.02.63.13.04.52.53.03.33.3
    United States4.03.62.11.41.95.44.07.41.63.84.83.8
    Euro area3.14.34.22.41.72.73.03.53.43.13.2
    Germany5.53.14.54.51.82.02.72.83.43.13.03.0
    France4.32.12.52.3−1.50.71.42.63.13.33.43.4
    Italy7.53.04.75.84.2−1.42.52.72.73.12.63.2
    Japan3.90.72.31.83.10.6−0.7−0.20.9−1.2−0.20.3
    United Kingdom7.64.14.44.34.24.54.04.64.33.53.43.8
    Canada4.12.12.21.02.20.81.61.33.52.92.52.7
    Other advanced economies8.94.45.25.94.42.94.44.44.24.14.04.2
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies4.72.92.82.42.23.22.74.52.12.83.23.0
    European Union6.43.34.24.22.72.12.93.23.63.43.23.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies13.76.17.910.25.60.87.26.74.25.36.26.7
    Productivity
    Advanced economies3.03.03.83.14.42.34.34.80.62.72.22.1
    United States2.83.73.93.54.24.95.14.00.84.53.03.0
    Euro area3.14.93.65.63.42.95.22.20.91.31.3
    Germany3.94.64.95.87.74.73.16.74.13.83.02.8
    France3.52.66.01.05.65.52.97.01.0−0.6−0.6−1.5
    Italy3.21.83.63.72.3−1.72.24.03.2−2.31.01.7
    Japan2.12.04.43.84.7−4.23.46.5−4.53.22.10.7
    United Kingdom4.31.6−0.8−0.61.31.03.55.62.37.11.61.2
    Canada2.11.11.4−2.43.4−0.42.62.1−2.02.02.02.0
    Other advanced economies3.03.03.93.34.51.95.34.11.11.61.92.3
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies3.03.03.83.14.42.44.05.00.43.02.32.0
    European Union3.62.73.62.64.62.72.95.02.20.91.41.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies4.45.47.86.95.9−0.713.09.31.13.13.94.4
    Unit labor costs
    Advanced economies2.50.2−0.5−1.60.9−1.2−0.32.00.31.11.2
    United States1.2−0.1−1.7−2.1−2.20.4−1.13.20.7−0.71.40.8
    Euro area−0.60.6−3.0−1.7−0.3−2.11.22.51.819
    Germany1.5−1.5−0.4−1.2−5.5−2.6−0.3−3.6−0.7−0.70.2
    France0.9−0.5−3.41.2−6.7−4.5−1.5−4.12.13.94.05.0
    Italy4.21.21.12.01.90.30.3−1.2−0.55.51.61.5
    Japan1.7−1.3−2.1−1.9−1.65.3−4.0−6.35.6−4.2−2.3−0.4
    United Kingdom3.12.55.25.02.93.40.5−0.91.92.41.82.5
    Canada2.01.00.93.4−1.21.1−0.9−0.75.50.90.40.7
    Other advanced economies6.01.41.52.80.11.4−0.80.13.12.41.91.8
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies1.7−0.1−0.9−0.7−2.10.8−1.3−0.41.7−0.20.910
    European Union2.80.60.71.7−1.7−0.6−1.61.42.61.82.0
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.80.70.73.70.32.5−4.9−2.82.91.61.61.8
    Table 11.Developing Countries: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1985–941995–20041995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Developing countries49.29.223.215.39.810.26.65.35.85.45.85.1
    Regional groups
    Africa28.115.335.430.314.59.012.314.213.09.310.17.6
    Sub-Sahara33.718.541.136.817.810.615.618.316.311.512.28.9
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa48.125.658.259.725.512.823.728.822.112.113.79.9
    Developing Asia11.04.813.28.24.87.72.51.82.71.92.33.3
    China11.02.717.18.32.8−0.8−1.40.40.7−0.80.21.5
    India9.06.610.29.07.213.24.74.03.84.34.15.5
    Other developing Asia12.28.19.27.66.822.19.23.06.36.46.05.7
    Middle East and Turkey21.322.139.129.628.127.523.619.517.116.413.010.3
    Western Hemisphere191.212.235.620.912.49.27.4686.48.711.06.9
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel14.619.543.135.419.817.316.813.411.812.915.113.8
    Nonfuel54.88.121.213.38.89.55.65.05.24.64.94.2
    of which, primary products49.317.634.531.016.89.817.522.318.68.011.39.4
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries70.411.924.917.312.515.610.28.58.68.58.36.3
    of which, official financing22.413.522.015.610.225.113.68.112.910.09.88.8
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1997–2001163.515.440.220.611.717.812.310.512.310.712.28.4
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries61.120.849.747.222.014.418.619.117.010.69.47.1
    Middle East and north Africa12.711.224.216.711.710.610.68.16.97.78.47.9
    Memorandum
    Median
    Developing countries9.55.210.07.26.25.53.93.94.43.54.03.5
    Regional groups
    Africa10.96.112.37.57.85.84.45.45.04.54.43.7
    Developing Asia8.45.48.77.66.48.44.43.44.03.44.04.0
    Middle East and Turkey6.93.26.46.83.43.02.21.51.72.02.62.2
    Western Hemisphere13.45.210.17.16.94.83.54.63.64.34.33.3
    Table 12.Developing Countries—by Country: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1985–941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Africa28.135.430.314.59.012.314.213.09.310.17.6
    Algeria15.829.818.75.75.02.60.34.21.44.24.0
    Angola104.52,672.24,146.0221.5107.4248.2325.0152.6108.975.619.3
    Benin4.614.54.93.85.80.34.24.02.32.42.5
    Botswana12.810.510.39.47.66.97.97.25.54.74.5
    Burkina Faso1.87.86.12.35.0−1.1−0.34.92.73.02.0
    Burundi7.319.426.431.112.53.424.39.3−1.47.14.7
    Cameroon2.625.86.65.12.90.82.84.53.42.7
    Cape Verde7.08.46.08.64.44.4−2.43.71.82.523
    Central African Republic1.719.23.71.6−1.9−1.43.23.83.14.42.5
    Chad2.15.411.35.64.3−8.43.812.44.54.04.0
    Comoros2.17.12.03.03.53.54.5−3.53.02.520
    Congo, Dem. Rep. of534.5541.8617.0199.029.1284.9550.0356.725.713.36.1
    Congo, Rep. of2.28.610.213.21.83.10.40.83.32.02.0
    Côte d’lvoire5.414.12.74.24.50.72.54.43.54.03.5
    Djibouti6.24.93.52.52.22.02.41.81.52.02.0
    Equatorial Guinea6.511.46.04.53.76.06.56.012.010.08.0
    Eritrea12.010.33.79.58.419.914.618.823.99.0
    Ethiopia8.113.40.9−6.43.63.94.2−7.1−7.24.53.0
    Gabon3.810.04.54.12.3−0.70.42.10.22.02.0
    Gambia, The16.14.04.83.11.13.80.94.57.16.04.5
    Ghana24.359.546.627.914.612.425.232.914.511.86.5
    Guinea23.35.63.01.95.14.66.85.42.63.53.0
    Guinea-Bissau59.145.450.749.18.0−2.16.63.33.33.03.0
    Kenya17.51.68.911.96.75.810.05.82.04.82.4
    Lesotho13.610.09.18.57.88.66.16.912.38.58.1
    Liberia
    Madagascar15.649.019.84.56.29.911.95.04.51.53.5
    Malawi19.483.137.79.129.844.829.627.214.15.04.3
    Mali2.012.46.5−0.74.1−1.2−0.75.24.95.12.5
    Mauritania7.56.54.74.58.04.13.34.74.04.03.7
    Mauritius7.46.05.97.95.47.95.34.46.05.84.2
    Morocco5.66.13.01.02.70.71.90.62.82.02.0
    Mozambique, Rep, of53.054.444.66.40.62.912.79.016.88.56.0
    Namibia12.710.08.08.36.28.69.39.311.39.58.5
    Niger1.210.95.32.94.5−2.32.94.02.7031.8
    Nigeria28.072.929.38.510.06.66.918.912.915.312.6
    Rwanda9.748.213.411.76.8−2.43.93.42.03.03.0
    Sào Tomé and Príncipe31.636.842.069.042.116.311.09.59.28.06.0
    Senegal3.98.12.81.8−1.10.80.73.02.22.01.8
    Seychelles1.9−0.3−1.10.62.76.36.26.16.06.06.0
    Sierra Leone70.426.023.114.636.034.1−0.92.2−2.23.53.5
    Somalia
    South Africa14.0877.38.66.95.25.45.710.08.55.7
    Sudan75.568.4132.846.717.116.08.04.96.05.05.0
    Swaziland13.112.36.47.97.55.99.97.512.59.56.7
    Tanzania30.326.521.116.19.89.06.25.24.74.23.8
    Togo5.56.42.55.5−1.44.5−2.56.84.84.32.5
    Tunisia6.66.23.73.73.12.73.01.93.13.32.9
    Uganda78.56.17.57.85.8−0.26.34.5−2.01.03.5
    Zambia87.334.943.124.424.526.826.121.722.218.45.2
    Zimbabwe18.422.621.518.831.758.255.976.7140.0450.0350.0
    Developing Asia11.013.28.24.87.72.51.82.71.92.33.3
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh8.110.82.55.08.69.03.41.62.45.24.5
    Bhutan9.39.58.89.09.23.63.62.75.05.05.0
    Brunei Darussalam6.02.01.7−0.41.20.6−2.01.01.3
    Cambodia1.37.18.014.84.0−0.80.23.33.83.5
    China11.017.18.32.8−0.8−1.40.40.7−0.80.21.5
    Fiji5.50.34.93.45.92.01.14.31.92.02.5
    India9.010.29.07.213.24.74.03.84.34.15.5
    Indonesia7.79.47.96.258.020.73.811.511.99.08.4
    Kiribati2.74.1−1.52.24.70.41.07.72.72.72.5
    Lao P.D. Republic19.419.119.119.590.1128.423.27.810.67.05.0
    Malaysia2.63.53.52.65.12.81.61.41.82.52.5
    Maldives8.13.06.27.6−1.43.0−1.20.72.02.522
    Myanmar21.428.920.033.949.110.9−1.734.546.940.043.0
    Nepal11.37.77.28.18.311.43.42.43.04.04.5
    Pakistan8.312.310.411.46.24.14.43.13.13.94.0
    Papua New Guinea4.817.311.63.913.614.915.610.27.54.74.2
    Philippines10.38.09.05.89.76.74.36.13.14.04.0
    Samoa1.8−2.95.46.92.20.31.03.88.03.82.7
    Solomon Islands12.39.611.88.112.48.36.07.09.38.16.9
    Sri Lanka10.77.715.99.69.44.76.214.28.86.64.8
    Thailand4.05.85.95.68.10.31.61.70.61.70.9
    Tonga8.8−0.52.72.03.03.95.37.03.53.13.2
    Vanuatu5.92.20.92.83.32.22.53.72.24.03.2
    Vietnam112.016.95.73.27.74.2−1.6−0.44.03.83.3
    Middle East and Turkey21.339.129.628.127.523.619.517.116.413.010.3
    Bahrain−0.23.1−0.14.6−0.4−1.3−0.7−1.2−1.0−1.32.1
    Egypt17.29.47.16.24.73.82.82.42.53.02.7
    Iran, Islamic Republic of2.349.423.217.318.120.112.611.415.517.015.0
    Iraq
    Jordan4.82.36.53.03.10.60.71.81.82.51.8
    Kuwait7.82.73.60.70.13.01.81.72.02.02.0
    Lebanon91.210.38.97.74.50.2−0.4−0.42.02.02.5
    Libya7.28.34.03.63.72.6−2.9−8.51.92.422
    Malta1.94.02.03.12.42.12.42.92.22.02.0
    Oman2.5−1.10.5−0.5−0.50.5−1.2−1.1−0.72.71.8
    Qatar2.63.07.12.72.92.21.71.41.72.91.2
    Saudi Arabia−0.15.00.9−0.4−0.2−1.3−0.6−0.8−0.41.11.0
    Syrian Arab Republic21.87.78.91.9−0.4−2.1−0.60.51.52.53.0
    Turkey61.393.682.385.784.664.954.954.445.024.714.5
    United Arab Emirates4.34.43.02.92.02.11.42.22.82.92.1
    Yemen, Republic of35.762.540.04.611.58.010.911.912.29.06.1
    Western Hemisphere191.235.620.912.49.27.46.86.48.711.06.9
    Antigua and Barbuda4.02.73.00.33.31.10.71.01.01.01.0
    Argentina267.73.40.20.50.9−1.2−0.9−1.125.922.313.0
    Bahamas, The4.72.11.40.51.31.31.62.01.91.21.5
    Barbados3.61.92.47.7−1.31.62.61.51.52A
    Belize−2.72.62.96.41.0−0.8−1.30.71.21.51.5
    Bolivia104.410.212.44.77.72.24.61.60.92.63.1
    Brazil773.066.016.06.93.24.97.16.88.414.05.5
    Chile18.88.27.46.15.13.33.83.62.53.32.9
    Colombia25.320.820.818.318.610.29.37.86.35.64.3
    Costa Rica17.323.226.313.211.710.011.011.39.110.010.0
    Dominica3.51.31.72.41.01.20.91.8−0.30.51.5
    Dominican Republic25.212.55.48.34.86.57.78.95.214.44.1
    Ecuador0.25.34.1−8.6−29.2−7.737.712.67.45.5
    El Salvador19.410.19.84.50.10.52.33.71.92.92.0
    Grenada2.62.22.81.31.40.52.22.51.5151.5
    Guatemala17.28.411.09.26.64.95.18.96.35.04.0
    Guyana36.612.27.13.64.67.56.12.74.34.53.5
    Haiti13.730.221.916.212.78.111.516.88.79.58.2
    Honduras12.129.523.820.213.711.611.09.77.78.47.9
    Jamaica28.621.721.59.18.16.37.78.06.57.07.0
    Mexico43.435.034.420.615.916.69.56.45.04.33.3
    Netherlands Antilles2.42.83.43.11.20.83.10.71.42.42.5
    Nicaragua879.011.211.69.213.011.27.47.44.46.04.8
    Panama0.80.91.31.30.61.51.20.31.01.11.0
    Paraguay24.313.49.87.011.66.89.07.310.519.212.0
    Peru342.911.111.58.57.33.53.82.00.22.52.5
    St. Kitts and Nevis2.33.02.08.73.73.42.12.11.92.02.2
    St. Lucia3.25.91.20.32.83.53.62.52.32.32.3
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines3.11.74.40.52.11.00.20.81.00.32.0
    Suriname49.3235.5−0.87.319.0112.880.44.928.320.018.0
    Trinidad and Tobago8.35.33.33.65.63.45.62.53.83.53.1
    Uruguay72.842.628.619.89.65.74.84.414.027.921.2
    Venezuela35.659.999.950.035.823.616.212.522.437.540.9

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    Table 13.Countries in Transition: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1985–941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Central and eastern Europe24.723.342.017.211.012.99.75.64.64.7
    Albania25.97.812.733.220.60.43.15.33.03.0
    Bosnia and Herzegovina3.8-12.36.8-0.33.45.13.10.30.51.7
    Bulgaria44.362.1123.01,061.218.82.610.47.55.83.04.1
    Croatia2.03.53.65.74.16.26.22.23.03.5
    Czech Republic9.18.88.510.62.13.94.71.81.13.0
    Estonia29.023.111.28.23.34.05.84.33.62.9
    Hungary17.828.323.518.314.310.09.89.25.35.34.8
    Latvia25.217.68.44.62.42.62.51.93.03.0
    Lithuania39.524.78.85.10.81.01.30.32.12.5
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of15.82.31.8-0.1-2.06.25.32.43.02.5
    Poland76.027.919.914.911.87.310.15.51.91.12.4
    Romania66.532.338.8154.859.145.845.734.522.516.211.6
    Serbia and Montenegro29.542.169.991.121.313.475
    Slovak Republic9.95.86.16.710.712.07.33.38.87.5
    Slovenia13.59.98.47.96.28.98.47.55.75.0
    Commonwealth of independent States and Mongolia235.755.919.024.571.225.820.414.512.39.1
    Russia198.047.914.727.885.720.820.716.013.49.7
    Excluding Russia338.975.529.617.943.537.419.811.510.07.6
    Armenia176.718.714.08.60.6-0.83.11.12.21.8
    Azerbaijan411.819.83.7-0.8-8.51.81.52.82.72.5
    Belarus709.352.763.873.0293.7168.661.142.628.618.9
    Georgia162.739.37.03.619.14.04.75.65.05.0
    Kazakhstan176.339.117.47.38.413.38.35.96.45.0
    Kyrgyz Republic43.532.019.610.535.918.77.02.13.94.0
    Moldova30.223.511.87.739.331.39.85.34.66.0
    Mongolia37.956.846.835.69.47.611.68.00.25.05.0
    Tajikistan610.0418.288.043.227.532.938.612.29.55.3
    Turkmenistan1,005.2992.483.716.823.58.011.6
    Ukraine376.480.215.910.622.728.212.00.85.05.0
    Uzbekistan304.654.070.916.744.650.748.938.821.111.6
    Memorandum
    EU accession candidates42.739.455.635.625.324.721.115.810.27.5

    For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

    Financial Policies

    Table 14.Summary Financial Indicators(percent)
    1995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Advanced economies
    Central government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies−3.4−2.8−1.8−1.3−0.90.3−0.8−2.1−2.6−2.3
    United States−2.6−1.8−0.60.51.22.10.7−1.8−3.0−2.6
    Euro area−4.1−3.8−2.6−2.4−1.6−0.4−1.5−1.7−1.5−1.2
    Japan−4.1−4.4−4.0−5.7−6.7−6.5−6.4−6.3−5.8−5.3
    Other advanced economies−2.6−1.6−0.30.62.31.0−0.2−0.6−0.3
    General government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies−4.1−3.0−1.8−1.3−0.9−0.1−1.6−3.1−3.6−3.1
    United States−3.3−2.4−1.3−0.10.51.2−0.7−3.6−4.6−3.8
    Euro area−5.0−4.3−2.6−2.3−1.30.1−1.5−2.2−2.4−2.0
    Japan−4.7−3.1−3.8−5.5−7.1−7.4−7.2−7.7−7.4−6.5
    Other advanced economies−3.1−1.80.61.32.50.6−0.5−0.9−0.7
    General government structural balance2
    Advanced economies−3.8−2.7−1.7−1.3−0.9−0.8−1.4−2.5−2.7−2.2
    Growth of broad money3
    Advanced economies5.04.85.06.75.85.18.75.7
    United States3.94.65.68.56.36.010.26.9
    Euro area45.54.04.64.85.54.111.16.6
    Japan3.22.93.84.42.62.03.42.1
    Other advanced economies0.59.25.99.08.37.57.25.4
    Short-term interest rates5
    United States5.75.15.24.94.86.03.51.61.33.0
    Euro area47.05.04.44.13.14.54.23.32.72.9
    Japan0.80.30.30.20.00.20.00.00.00.0
    LIBOR6.15.65.95.65.56.63.71.91.73.5
    Developing countries
    Central government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average−2.7−2.3−2.6−3.8−3.8−3.2−3.8−3.8−3.4−3.2
    Median−3.3−2.5−2.5−2.8−3.3−3.2−3.7−3.9−3.5−3.0
    General government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average−3.3−3.0−3.4−4.6−4.8−3.9−4.7−4.7−4.1−3.8
    Median−3.3−2.7−2.5−3.1−3.4−3.3−3.7−3.8−3.2−2.9
    Growth of broad money
    Weighted average24.629.417.416.314.711.112.413.412.612.0
    Median16.314.415.510.312.411.811.89.69.49.2
    Countries in transition
    Central government fiscal balance1−4.6−4.5−4.7−3.5−2.0−0.2−0.1−0.9
    General government fiscal balance1−4.7−5.8−5.4−4.9−2.1−0.3−1.7−0.8−0.6
    Growth of broad money75.232.033.320.238.537.327.419.416.811.7

    Percent of GDP.

    Percent of potential GDP.

    M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs), and M4, respectively. Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and there notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U. S. residents by foreign branches of U. S. banks. For Japan, M2 plus CDs is currency in circulation plus total private and public sector deposits and installments of Sogo Bank plus CDs. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

    Excludes Greece prior to 2001.

    For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for the euro area, a weighted average of national three-month money market interest rates through 1998 and three-month EURIBOR thereafter; for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U. S. dollar deposits.

    Table 15.Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Fiscal Balances and Balances Excluding Social Security Transactions1(Percent of GDP)
    1995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    General government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies−4.1−3.0−1.8−1.3−0.9−0.1−1.6−3.1−3.6−3.1
    United States−3.3−2.4−1.3−0.10.51.2−0.7−3.6−4.6−3.8
    Euro area−5.0−4.3−2.6−2.3−1.30.1−1.5−2.2−2.4−2.0
    Germany−3.3−3.4−2.7−2.2−1.51.1−2.8−3.6−3.6−2.7
    France2−5.5−4.1−3.0−2.7−1.6−1.3−1.4−3.1−3.5−3.0
    Italy−7.6−7.1−2.7−2.8−1.6−0.6−2.6−2.3−2.4−2.3
    Spain−7.0−4.9−3.2−2.7−1.1−0.6−0.1−0.1−0.3−0.2
    Netherlands−4.2−1.7−1.6−0.90.32.00.1−1.2−1.8−2.6
    Belgium−4.3−3.8−2.0−0.7−0.50.10.4
    Austria3−5.2−3.8−2.0−2.5−2.4−1.6−0.1−1.0−0.6
    Finland−3.7−3.2−1.51.31.97.04.93.4181.6
    Greece−10.2−7.4−4.0−2.5−1.8−1.9−1.4−1.2−1.4−1.3
    Portugal−4.5−4.0−3.0−2.6−2.4−2.9−4.2−2.7−3.9−4.3
    Ireland4−2.1−0.31.22.44.14.31.1−0.1−0.8−1.0
    Luxembourg2.62.02.83.13.65.66.1−0.3−0.10.2
    Japan−4.7−3.1−3.8−5.5−7.1−7.4−7.2−7.7−7.4−6.5
    United Kingdom−5.8−4.4−2.20.2114.00.9−1.2−2.6−2.8
    Canada−5.3−2.8020.11.73.11.81.41.41.4
    Korea50.3−1.7−4.3−3.31.30.72.83.03.4
    Australia6−2.1−0.9−0.10.30.9090.20.10.50.6
    Taiwan Province of China2.72.32.33.70.8−4.5−6.6−6.0−6.5−5.3
    Sweden−7.6−3.2−1.61.81.83.94.61.61.41.6
    Switzerland−1.9−2.0−2.4−0.4−0.22.60.2−0.9−16−1.9
    Hong Kong SAR−0.32.16.5−1.80.8−0.6−5.0−5.5−5.3−2.9
    Denmark−2.3−1.00.41.13.22.62.91.81.82.1
    Norway3.46.57.83.56.115.115.012.512.59.9
    Israel−4.3−5.8−4.4−3.7−4.2−2.0−4.0−4.4−4.1−3.6
    Singapore12.29.39.23.64.68.14.93.14.56.2
    New Zealand73.62.71.60.90.40.71.41.61.92.3
    Cyprus−1.0−3.4−5.3−5.5−4.0−2.7−2.8−3.5−4.2−3.7
    Iceland−3.0−1.60.52.42.50.50.20.20.5
    Other advanced economies−3.1−1.8−0.5−0.30.30.8−0.6−0.8−0.6
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies−4.3−3.3−2.1−1.6−1.2−0.3−2.0−3.7−4.3−3.7
    European Union−5.4−4.3−2.5−1.7−0.70.8−1.0−1.9−2.3−2.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies3.33.34.42.41.4−1.7−4.5−4.5−4.6−3.0
    Fiscal balance excluding social security transactions
    United States−3.7−2.7−1.7−0.7−0.6−1.6−4.1−5.0−4.3
    Japan−6.9−5.2−5.8−7.1−8.6−8.5−7.4−7.6−7.2−6.4
    Germany−2.9−3.1−2.8−2.4−1.81.2−2.7−3.3−3.6−2.7
    France−4.8−3.6−2.6−2.5−1.9−1.9−1.7−2.9−2.8−2.6
    Italy−5.6−5.3−0.71.32.83.41.32.22.02.0
    Canada−2.73.02.74.04.93.52.82.52.5
    Central government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies−3.4−2.8−1.8−1.3−0.90.3−0.8−2.1−2.6−2.3
    United States8−2.6−1.8−0.60.51.22.10.7−1.8−3.0−2.6
    Euro area−4.1−3.8−2.6−2.4−1.6−0.4−1.5−1.7−1.5−1.2
    Germany9−1.4−2.2−1.7−1.5−1.31.3−1.1−1.6−1.5−1.1
    France−4.1−3.7−3.6−3.9−2.5−2.4−2.3−3.8−36−3.4
    Italy−8.0−7.5−6.7−2.7−2.6−0.3−2.1−2.7−2.8−2.7
    Japan10−4.1−4.4−4.0−5.7−6.7−6.5−6.4−6.3−5.8−5.3
    United Kingdom−5.5−4.6−2.20.31.24.10.9−1.2−2.4−2.7
    Canada−3.9−2.00.70.80.81.71.01.10.50.5
    Other advanced economies−2.8−1.7−1.0−1.1−0.50.80.2−0.4−0.6−0.3
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies−3.5−3.0−2.0−1.3−0.90.2−1.0−2.6−3.1−2.8
    European Union−4.7−4.1−3.2−1.9−1.20.5−0.8−1.8−2.1−2.0
    Newly industrialized Asian economies1.01.00.8−1.3−1.21.0−0.7−0.8−0.60.3

    On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

    Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

    Based on ESA95 methodology, according to which swap income is not included.

    To maintain comparability, data excludes the impact of discharging future pension liabilities of the formerly state-owned telecoms company at a cost of 1.8 percent of GDP in 1999.

    Data cover the consolidated centeral government including the social security funds but excluding privatization.

    Data exclude net advances (primarily privatization receipts and net policy-related lending).

    Data from 1992 onward are on an accrual basis and are not strictly comparable with previous cash-based data.

    Data are on a budget basis.

    Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

    Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

    Table 16.Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances1(Percent of potential GDP)
    1995199619971998199920002001200220032004
    Structural balance
    Advanced economies−3.8−2.7−1.7−1.3−0.9−0.8−1.4−2.5−2.7−2.2
    United States−2.7−1.9−1.1−0.20.10.6−0.4−2.9−3.6−3.1
    Euro area2,3−4.3−3.2−1.6−1.6−0.9−1.3−1.6−1.6−1.1−0.8
    Germany2,4−3.6−3.0−1.9−1.6−11−1.7−2.5−2.5−1.8−1.0
    France2−3.7−1.9−1.0−1.6−1.0−1.6−1.5−2.5−2.1−1.5
    Italy2−7.0−6.2−1.9−2.2−0.9−1.5−2.4−2.0−1.2−1.0
    Spain2−5.1−3.0−1.7−1.9−1.0−1.0−0.40.50.60.7
    Netherlands2−3.8−1.2−1.3−1.0−0.20.6−0.1−0.6−0.3−0.9
    Belgium2−4.1−3.0−1.9−0.7−0.9−1.2−0.40.41.010
    Austria2−5.0−3.7−1.7−2.5−2.6−2.80.10.91.4
    Finland0.30.30.12.02.37.16.15.3403.6
    Greece−9.5−6.9−3.9−2.5−2.0−2.5−2.5−2.0−2.3−2.3
    Portugal2−3.2−2.9−2.4−2.7−2.9−4.2−4.7−2.3−2.3−2.5
    Ireland2−1.30.40.71.62.31.7−0.8−1.6−1.2−1.1
    Japan−4.4−3.4−4.2−5.0−6.1−7.0−6.5−6.7−6.4−5.4
    United Kingdom2−5.4−4.2−2.11.11.70.9−0.9−1.8−1.8
    Canada−5.4−2.00.80.5162.52.21.91.91.6
    Other advanced economies−3.8−2.2−1.2−0.8−0.10.30.20.30.50.5
    Australia5−2.0−0.80.10.20.50.80.40.40.80.8
    Sweden−6.7−2.9−1.22.94.47.04.53.73.93.9
    Denmark−2.1−1.00.20.72.72.12.72.42.42.2
    Norway6−4.2−3.1−2.7−3.9−3.1−1.8−1.8−3.0−2.9−1.9
    New Zealand71.71.31.51.80.91.21.92.32.730
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies−3.8−2.8−1.8−1.4−1.1−1.0−1.7−3.0−3.2−2.7
    European Union2,3−4.7−3.4−1.7−1.2−0.5−0.6−1.0−1.3−1.0−0.8

    On a national income accounts basis. The structural budget position is defined as the actual budget deficit (or surplus) less the effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output. Because of the margin of uncertainty that attaches to estimates of cyclical gaps and to tax and expenditure elasticities with respect to national income, indicators of structural budget positions should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude. Moreover, it is important to note that changes in structural budget balances are not necessarily attributable to policy changes but may reflect the built-in momentum of existing expenditure programs. In the period beyond that for which specific consolidation programs exist, it is assumed that the structural deficit remains unchanged.

    Excludes one-off receipts from the sale of mobile telephone licenses equivalent to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2000 for Germany, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2001 and 2002 for France, 1.2 percent of GDP in 2000 for Italy, 2.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for the United Kingdom, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2000 for Spain, 0.7 percent of GDP in 2000 for the Netherlands, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2001 for Belgium, 0.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for Austria, 0.3 percent of GDP in 2000 for Portugal, and 0.1 percent of GDP in 2002 for Ireland. Also excludes one-off receipts from sizable asset transactions.

    Excludes Luxembourg.

    The estimate of the fiscal impulse for 1995 is affected by the assumption by the federal government of the debt of the Treuhandanstalt and various other agencies, which were formerly held outside the general government sector. At the public sector level, there would be an estimated withdrawal of fiscal impulse amounting to just over 1 percent of GDP.

    Excludes commonwealth government privatization receipts.

    Excludes oil.

    Excludes privatization proceeds.

    Table 17.Advanced Economies: Monetary Aggregates

    (Annual percent change)1

    19951996199719981999200020012002
    Narrow money2
    Advanced economies5.14.84.66.08.22.68.89.5
    United States−1.5−4.5−122.11.9−1.76.83.2
    Euro area35.88.07.710.811.05.36.79.9
    Japan12.810.08.96.111.84.113.625.2
    United Kingdom5.66.76.45.311.64.48.35.5
    Canada7.618.910.98.07.914.415.15.1
    Memorandum
    Newly industrialized Asian economies10.55.8−3.80.919.74.511.311.7
    Broad money4
    Advanced economies5.04.85.06.75.85.18.75.7
    United States3.84.65.68.56.36.010.26.9
    Euro area35.54.04.64.85.54.111.16.6
    Japan322.93.84.42.62.03.42.1
    United Kingdom9.99.65.68.54.28.46.46.9
    Canada4.12.1−1.30.85.16.55.94.9
    Memorandum
    Newly industrialized Asian economies13.011.4