Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
May 1998
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    Annex I Transparency in Government Operations

    Transparency in government operations is necessary for sound government finances, good governance, and overall fiscal integrity. The Interim Committee in its September 1996 Declaration, “Partnership for Sustainable Global Growth,” stated that “it is essential to enhance the transparency of fiscal policy by persevering with efforts to reduce off-budget transactions and quasi-fiscal deficits” (see the October 1996 World Economic Outlook, page xii). Reflecting these concerns, a recently published IMF Occasional Paper1 addresses many aspects of transparency in government operations, identifying good practices, reviewing major trends in this area, and examining the IMF’s role in promoting fiscal transparency.

    Why Fiscal Transparency?

    Fiscal transparency can be defined as openness toward the public at large about government structure and functions, fiscal policy intentions, public sector accounts, and projections. It involves ready access to reliable, comprehensive, timely, understandable, and internationally comparable information on government activities—including those activities undertaken outside the government sector—so that the electorate and financial markets can accurately assess the government’s present and future financial position.

    Fiscal transparency is a precondition for sound economic policy. Timely publication of a clearly presented budget document makes it easier for markets to evaluate a government’s intentions and thereby impose a constructive discipline on the government. Transparency increases the political risk of unsustainable policies; conversely, nontransparent practices can result in fiscal profligacy going undetected longer than it otherwise would. Similarly, a transparent public financial accounting system makes it possible for the market to determine what the government has actually done and to compare budgeted and actual financial operations. Fiscal transparency can also foster the confidence of a population in its government.

    Nontransparent fiscal practices tend to be destabilizing, to create allocative distortions, and to exacerbate inequities. These adverse repercussions may not be apparent in the near term, but they may surface later in the form of a severe financial crisis, requiring much costlier remedial action. For instance, nontransparent tax concessions, quasi-fiscal subsidies, and off-budget spending all contribute to fiscal imbalances. The destabilizing consequences of an accumulation of payment arrears and of unfunded contingent liabilities are usually felt with longer lags. More immediately, governments that do not disclose sufficient information to financial markets may incur increased risk premia over time. All taxes and subsidies, as well as economic regulations, alter relative prices and factor returns and cause distortions in resource allocation. But when they are not transparent, the harmful impact of these practices, including the gains accruing to influential interest groups at the expense of poorer and less vocal groups, is hidden from public view and debate.

    Admittedly, fiscal transparency may impose upfront costs as the technical capacity and institutions are put in place to establish a centralized information system, to develop reliable forecasting tools, to implement appropriate accounting techniques, and to simplify regulatory practices or make their cost visible. Moreover, there are recurrent, albeit often declining, costs in maintaining these practices and disseminating the generated information. The costs of transforming a culture of secrecy into one of transparency may be at least as large.

    Whereas institutional arrangements and accounting practices in the public sector must always be transparent to reap the known benefits, the timing of public disclosure about the formulation of government decisions may require some judgment. Notwithstanding the general presumption that fiscal transparency is desirable, temporary departures from transparency may be justified. Such a situation might arise when the premature announcement of policy measures, such as the introduction of new taxes or subsidies, would weaken their effectiveness or confer unintended windfall gains on some groups.

    Institutions and Behavior

    In principle, a basic requirement for transparency in the overall structure and functions of government is a clear demarcation of the boundaries between the public and private sectors and, within the former, between different levels of government with respect to the state enterprise sector. Responsibility for expenditures on basic public services and functions needs to be clearly divided between the national and various subnational levels of government. The revenue base of each level of government should be defined unambiguously, possibly accompanied by formula-based arrangements for revenue sharing and intragovernmental transfers.

    Within the central government, extrabudgetary operations can, in principle, be an efficient means of pursuing certain tasks for which the spending obligation transcends the annual budget appropriation process. Cases in point are public pension and commodity stabilization schemes. By contrast, in a number of countries, extrabudgetary funds—for example, for military spending—have been created mainly to avoid legislative scrutiny. Moreover, funds originally established for valid reasons have in some instances become highly dysfunctional (for example, in some countries, easy access to old-age and disability pensions is used nontransparently to alleviate unemployment). In other countries, reserves accumulated in commodity stabilization funds—or reserve funds established from the sale of nonrenewable resources—have been diverted to finance consumer subsidies or prestige projects. An important task facing governments is to ensure that adequate and timely information is provided on such activities.

    In the public sector, it is necessary to maintain transparency in the relations between the government and the state-owned enterprise sector. Although there are sound reasons for limiting the extent to which this sector is engaged in activities more legitimately carried out by the private sector, where such practices nevertheless occur it is important that they be well documented in publicly available reports. Equally, information on the cost of quasi-fiscal activities conducted by public financial institutions—through multiple exchange rates, preferential credits, and guarantees—- should be provided preferably in annual budget documents. Information should also be available on the fiscal costs of restructuring state-owned financial institutions and nonfinancial enterprises. Privatization of such entities must be conducted with as much openness as permitted by sound marketing considerations.

    For most public goods and services, it is easy to distinguish between the activities of the public and private sectors. In many countries the government is solely responsible for public administration, internal safety, defense, foreign relations, and macroeconomic policy. Increasingly, however, there are activities (for example, in the education, health care, and public utility sectors) where both sectors may operate concurrently. Indeed, at times, the government may seek to mandate the private sector to carry out activities on its behalf; in such cases there is a need for a transparent understanding of the nature and scope of the government’s fiscal obligations with respect to the private sector.

    Equally, there may be a justification for regulation in a number of areas (mainly public health, consumer safety, environmental protection, labor protection, and competition policy). A lack of clarity in the regulatory framework can lead to governance problems, since the costs of compliance, whether borne directly by the regulated entities or indirectly by the rest of the economy, are not visible. In general, the recent deregulation of commodity, labor, and financial markets has contributed to greater transparency in government operations.

    In government operations, transparency is critical in the budget process, tax policy and administration, and debt-financing operations. The tasks involved at each stage of the budget process are usually specified in some detail in the budget framework law or, less frequently, are based on past conventions and rulings. The draft budget document, preferably incorporating broad fiscal targets and strategy in a multiyear context, and its subsequent legislative debate and approval should normally be open and the outcome published.

    At the execution stage, the government should periodically inform both the public and the legislature about the budgetary outcome and how it compares with the objectives. A further test of transparency in budget execution and control involves open public procurement, contracting, and employment practices. Adequate information is also necessary for conducting both financial and performance audits, and the results of such audits should be made public. Finally, it is essential to limit private rent seeking by officials in the public domain through enforcement of conflict-of-interest legislation. Freedom-of-information legislation can help to ensure government transparency and accountability by giving citizens access to public documents and assigning to government the burden of justifying nondisclosure.

    Transparency in tax treatment entails a well-defined, clearly disseminated, statutory basis for taxation, as well as clear and simple administration. Discretionary tax relief provided to particular individuals or enterprises impairs the transparency and credibility of the tax system. For greater transparency in tax administration, many countries have adopted statutes on taxpayers’ rights and obligations, as well as rules of conduct for tax officials. Published estimates of tax expenditures—that is, revenue forgone because of tax preferences—are an important input for the debate of the annual draft budget or tax reform.

    Transparency in government financing operations has been enhanced by financial deregulation. Many countries are relying on open, market-based financing, which requires provision of adequate data to market participants on the timing of tenders, security issues, coupons offered, prices, and bids and offers accepted. Moreover, governments wishing to access international and domestic financial markets must furnish rating agencies, underwriters, and supervisory agencies with considerable data on the magnitude, terms, and holders of the public debt and on the government’s debt-service capacity. Transparency in debt operations assumes even greater importance in a regulated market because of the distortions introduced by constraints. Transparency in government lending entails adopting clearly specified policy criteria for loans extended, including risk assessment, as well as releasing information on the terms and conditions of the loans.

    Government Accounts

    In principle, the general government is universally regarded as providing the most comprehensive coverage of the noncommercial public sector, consisting of the budget as well as social security and other extrabudgetary accounts, consolidated across all levels of government. However, because even the concept of general government may fall short of providing for a full coverage of fiscal operations to the extent that it excludes the quasi-fiscal activities of state-owned financial institutions and nonfinancial enterprises, a number of countries report data for the nonfinancial public sector. Others have expanded coverage to include official financial institutions, thereby encompassing the entire public sector. As a preferable alternative, the concept of general government activity is intended to capture accurately the cost of all government functions, including quasi-fiscal activities conducted outside the general government. In the event that the cost of quasi-fiscal activities proves impossible to quantify, transparency would be served by at least listing such activities.

    The recording basis of government transactions—namely, cash or accrual—has important implications for the transparency of fiscal performance. Reliance solely on the cash-based approach, although helpful for assessing the first-order impact of government borrowing on inflation and the external balance, can result in a misstatement of the magnitude and timing of fiscal operations. Thus, the accrual-based approach is also useful for gauging the macroeconomic resource repercussions of fiscal policy, especially over the medium to long term. Major distortions under cash-based recording stem from the exclusion of information on accumulation of arrears (especially expenditure arrears), transactions in kind (including issuance of government obligations to suppliers, or tax refunds, or in connection with bank restructuring), and the cost of borrowing at a discount. Increasingly, many view it as desirable to monitor the fiscal accounts on both an accrual and a cash basis.

    The valuation and recognition of assets and liabilities can be critical for the transparency and consistency of government financial statements. In this regard, investment expenditure may be subject to varying treatment (full expensing or depreciation) depending on the analytical purpose at hand. Given the broader difficulties of valuing public assets, gross (rather than net) measurement of public debt is often the only reliable option. Estimates of government net worth are desirable, but in practice most countries are not yet in a position to prepare such estimates.

    In addition, it is necessary to compile and disclose information on commitments and contingent liabilities. Examples of these liabilities are guarantees for credits extended by financial institutions and for deposits in those institutions, many of which are not quantifiable because they are contingent on the realization of the insured occurrence. Estimates of the obligations to future beneficiaries of social insurance for old-age, unemployment, and health care programs that would not appear affordable at current tax and contribution rates may prove useful. They provide a measure of the magnitude of the policy changes that may be required to achieve fiscal sustainability.

    Fiscal transparency requires classifying data on government operations, ownership, and liabilities into analytically useful categories of flows and stocks. Revenue should be broken down into major tax and nontax categories, and unrequited transfers; financing, including privatization receipts, should be shown below the line. Expenditure must be classified into major functional and economic categories, with debt amortization separated from interest payments and the former placed as a below-the-line negative financing item. Finally, financing flows, as well as the corresponding debt stock, should be disaggregated by currency denomination, maturity, and source.

    Indicators and Projections

    The most commonly available direct indicator of the fiscal balance—namely, the overall balance of government operations—is transparent only to the extent that it is free of distortions in data coverage, recording, and classification. The overall balance is usefully supplemented by alternative measures subject to the same transparency requirements. This would include measures of the current balance, as an indicator of the government’s contribution to national saving; the primary balance, which is instrumental for determining the fiscal policy effort needed to stabilize or reduce public debt; and the operational balance, for countries that have experienced high inflation and large levels of indebtedness. Most countries also compile some direct indicator of the change in the stock of assets and liabilities, although in the absence of satisfactory data on nonfinancial assets, it is necessary to rely on gross debt measures.

    To understand the direction of fiscal policy, the public and financial markets often find it useful to examine analytical indicators of the short-run fiscal stance. Perhaps the best known are indicators that remove the effect of cyclical fluctuations or exogenous shocks from direct measures of the budget balance. Indicators such as the structural balance are used predominantly in the advanced economies. Similarly, assessment of fiscal sustainability—in view of rapidly aging populations, the rising cost of health care, and the rigidity of most social entitlements—should be based on long-term scenarios, showing the evolution of the fiscal balance over several decades. Long-run debt sustainability can be determined by examining current indebtedness levels, the interest rate, the GDP growth rate, and the ratio of the primary budget balance to GDP. In addition, it is useful for governments to provide periodic assessments of the long-term financial viability of government social insurance programs in pensions, health care, and other social assistance programs.

    The formulation of fiscal policy, as well as the accompanying public debate on targets and strategy, is usually predicated on projections of future trends in government finances and in overall economic performance. Fiscal projections must be based on realistic and explicitly documented macroeconomic assumptions and parameters (for example, effective tax rates, tax bases). In the publication of short-run fiscal and macroeconomic forecasts, governments should provide baseline projections, which assume unchanged policies, and alternative projections, which incorporate the impact of major policy changes.

    Overall Trends and Priorities

    In recent years, many IMF member countries have made major progress toward fiscal transparency. The economies in transition have made the greatest leap toward transparency, although some still have nontransparent fiscal systems. Nevertheless, considerable scope remains for eliminating nontransparent practices in most countries. It is important to keep in mind the distinction between unintended nontransparency (attributable to slow technical and institutional development) and deliberate misrepresentation or suppression of information.

    For the advanced economies, the main priority appears to lie in publishing comprehensive information to facilitate the debate over fiscal discipline and long-term fiscal sustainability, particularly concerning entitlement programs associated with population aging. In particular, progress on these issues involves estimates of net unfunded liabilities and quasi-fiscal operations, costing of tax expenditures and regulation, and improved documentation of fiscal projections.

    In the developing economies, attention should be focused on institutional reforms—that is, enhancing transparency mainly in the budget process, taxation, and quasi-fiscal activities of public nonfinancial enterprises and financial institutions—and on the compilation and dissemination of essential fiscal data and projections. The economies in transition share many of the needs of developing countries, but their history of secrecy, including widespread quasi-fiscal activities and data systems oriented to planning rather than to market needs, may make it more difficult for them to move rapidly toward more transparent fiscal practices. In many developing and transition economies, efforts in this area are particularly important for promoting good governance.

    Role of the IMF in Promoting Fiscal Transparency

    Article IV consultations, which are regular bilateral policy discussions between the IMF and member governments, provide the main vehicle for the IMF’s exercising surveillance over its members’ fiscal policies. Both in this context and in the formulation of program conditionality, the IMF may urge country authorities to increase the transparency of fiscal data and practices. The IMF also seeks to enhance transparency in a multilateral context through its World Economic Outlook exercise, drawing in part on internationally comparable measures of fiscal stance and sustainability for major advanced economies.

    Finally, the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department has provided technical assistance over a wide range of public finance issues. Many of the recommendations offered through such assistance seek to promote transparency in tax and budgetary matters. In addition, the IMF’s Statistics Department has extended considerable assistance to improve government statistics on the basis of well-established accounting conventions. In particular, the IMF’s efforts in the development of the Government Finance Statistics (GFS) methodology and the publication of the GFS database has facilitated internationally comparable cross-country comparisons. The current revision of the GFS guidelines, in line with the 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA) standards, is a further step toward improving the transparency and consistency of fiscal statistics. The IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), aimed at countries accessing international capital markets, represents another important effort to promote transparency in the dissemination of macroeconomic data (in addition, the SDDS is posted on the IMF’s public Internet site); fiscal data are included, albeit on a highly aggregated basis.

    Annex II Recent Developments in Primary Commodity Markets

    Since mid-1997—that is, just before the beginning of the crisis in Thailand’s financial and foreign exchange markets—prices of primary commodities as a group have fallen by more than 10 percent.1 These price declines are sufficiently great in magnitude to have far reaching implications for producers and consumers around the world.

    Effects of the Asian Crisis

    To a large degree these price declines are associated with the Asian crisis. During the early and mid-1990s, consumption of primary commodities in most Asian developing countries increased at rates much higher than in the rest of the world. Asian developing countries accounted for about two-thirds of the increase in world consumption of petroleum products over the period 1992–96, and their share in world consumption increased from 12 percent to 15 percent (Figure 31). Korea and the ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand), in turn, accounted for about one-half of the increase in consumption of petroleum products in Asian developing countries, and the share of these five countries in world consumption rose from 5 percent to 6½ percent. A similar pattern of growth in consumption is observed for base metals, rubber, coarse grains, oilmeals, and fats and oils. For most of these nonfuel commodities, the share of Asian countries in world consumption in 1996 was much greater than their share in the world consumption of petroleum products. China’s contribution to the growth in the markets for these commodities, however, has tended to be much greater than that of Korea plus the ASEAN-4.

    Figure 31.Selected Asian Countries’ Shares in World Consumption of Primary Commodities

    Sources: International Energy Agency; World Bureau of Metal Statistics; U.S. Department of Agriculture; and International Rubber Study Group.

    In the countries most directly affected, the Asian crisis has brought in its wake much reduced construction activity, much higher import costs in terms of national currencies, less available credit to finance imports, and, at a minimum, sharp reductions in demand. These conditions have led to reductions in the rate of growth of demand, not only in the ASEAN-4 countries and Korea but also, through the spillover and contagion effects of the crisis, in many other countries in Asia and elsewhere. Thus certain commodity markets that as recently as mid-1997 were expected to show a high rate of growth of demand are now facing a period of considerable uncertainty with regard to demand prospects. Furthermore, for some nonfuel commodities such as timber, rice, natural rubber, and vegetable oils, the large depreciations of currencies of the southeast Asian countries may also have had supply effects insofar as they create incentives to increase exports from current inventories and to increase current and prospective production.

    Effects of Weather

    This year weather conditions generally favorable to crop production have also been an important factor that has tended to weaken the prices of several agricultural commodities. This seems true notwithstanding the unusual weather patterns in many parts of the world that have been attributed to El Niño and have received much press coverage. At least so far, the adverse consequences of El Niño for commodity production that are sufficiently great to have discernible effects on world prices for individual commodities have been limited to the fish catches off the west coast of South America and to palm oil production in southeast Asia. Elsewhere—for example, in the case of cereal production in southern Africa—El Niño may have reduced production locally, but the consequence for world prices is not of great importance. In addition, warmer than usual weather this winter in the Northern Hemisphere has reduced the demand for heating oil and hence contributed to the downward trend in the price of petroleum and other energy commodities.

    Developments in Specific Markets

    The interplay of the Asian crisis and other factors affecting commodity markets in recent months comes more into focus in a review of developments in specific primary commodity markets. Price decreases in excess of 10 percent (with prices measured in terms of SDRs) over the period June 1997 through January 1998 that were in some way associated with the effects of weaker demand from Asian countries were recorded for nearly one-third of the commodities included in the IMF’s commodity price index. The price declines for five commodities—copper, nickel, natural rubber, wool, and hides—appear to be associated mainly with the Asian crisis. The Asian crisis also played an important role, but probably not the predominant role, in the price declines of four other commodities—crude petroleum, timber, zinc, and lead. For certain other commodities, such as aluminum, iron ore, meat, maize, and soybean meal, the effects of weaker demand from Asian countries on prices have so far been offset by other factors. These commodity markets have served as one of the vehicles for the spread of the effects of the Asian crisis throughout the world—mostly adverse for suppliers and mostly favorable for consumers. In the discussion below, the markets for petroleum, copper, aluminum, timber, and natural rubber have been selected for a more detailed review of the pattern of the recent commodity price declines and their global implications.

    The decrease in the price of petroleum started later than the price declines of most other primary commodities. Beginning in March 1997, stocks of crude petroleum and petroleum products were gradually built up to levels considerably higher than in comparable months in 1996, although still below levels of earlier years (Figure 32). Given strong consumption demand, however, this stock accumulation was insufficient to preclude a 13½ percent price increase (in SDR terms) over the period June to October—mostly occurring at the end of September and early October, when fears were greatest that increasing political tensions relating to developments in the Middle East might lead to some supply disruptions. From October 1997 to late March 1998, petroleum prices fell by more than 25 percent. The IMF’s indicator price for crude petroleum fell from $20 per barrel to about $14 per barrel.2 Contributing to this decline were (1) a slowing of demand growth in a number of countries affected by the Asian crisis; (2) a warm winter in the Northern Hemisphere, which reduced the demand for heating oil; (3) an acceleration in the increase in production, particularly in members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC);3 and (4) inventories of crude and oil products at all stages of the marketing chain considerably greater than last year. In late February after the United Nations agreement with Iraq to expand the oil-for-food program, the petroleum price dipped below $12 per barrel, but this decline was reversed following the announcement on March 21 of plans by major oil producing countries (both members of OPEC and other producers) to restrict production.

    Figure 32.Commercial Stocks of Petroleum in OECD Countries

    (In millions of barrels)

    Source: International Energy Agency.

    1Middle distillates and residual fuel oil (that is, products for which a large part is used as heating fuel).

    Twenty-five countries depend on petroleum for 20 percent or more of their foreign exchange earnings (Table 27). Many of these countries depend heavily on petroleum to finance most of their government expenditure. Sustained lower petroleum prices could have a substantial ripple effect not only in these countries but throughout the world as expenditures on a wide range of goods and services, including investment programs, are cut back. On the positive side, however, lower petroleum prices will help to reduce transportation costs, lower energy costs in manufacturing, and lower heating costs throughout the world.

    Table 27.Price Declines for Individual Commodities and Countries Most Affected in Foreign Exchange Earnings
    CommodityPrice Declines,
    June 1997 to January 1998
    (in percent; prices in SDRs)
    Countries Depending on Commodity Exports
    For 50 percent or more of earnings1For 20–49 percent of earnings1For 10–19 percent of earnings1
    Natural rubber37
    Copper33ZambiaChileCongo, Dem. Rep. of
    MongoliaKazakhstan
    Papua New Guinea
    Peru
    Timber24Equatorial GuineaCambodia
    Lao P.D.R.Central African Rep.
    Solomon IslandsGabon
    Ghana
    Indonesia
    Latvia
    Myanmar
    New Zealand
    Papua New Guinea
    Wool23Swaziland
    Nickel20
    Zinc16
    Hides15
    Crude petroleum13AngolaAzerbaijanAlgeria
    BahrainBrunei DarussalamColombia
    Congo, Rep. ofCameroonCongo, Dem. Rep. of
    GabonEcuadorEgypt
    IraqEquatorial GuineaIndonesia
    Iran, Islamic Rep. ofNorwayKazakhstan
    KuwaitPapua New GuineaMexico
    LibyaRussiaVietnam
    NigeriaSyrian Arab Rep.
    OmanTrinidad and Tobago
    QatarUnited Arab Emirates
    Saudi Arabia
    Venezuela
    Yemen, Rep. of
    Lead11
    Soybean meal11

    Earnings from exports of goods and services.

    The fall in the price of copper has been large and has had far-reaching implications, in part because of the heavy dependence of a number of countries on copper for foreign exchange earnings. The 33 percent decline in the copper price from June 1997 to January 1998 can be attributed mainly to reduced demand in Asian markets. Korea and the ASEAN-4 countries accounted for about one-fourth of the growth in consumption of copper in the period 1992–96, and the share of these countries in world consumption increased from 5½ percent in 1992 to 8¼ percent in 1996. The price decline occurred notwithstanding the strong demand for refined copper in 1997 in the United States and western Europe, where consumption increased over the 1996 levels by about 4 percent and 3½ percent, respectively.

    Three countries—Chile, Mongolia, and Zambia—are dependent on copper for 20 percent or more of their foreign exchange earnings, and copper provides more than 10 percent of earnings for four additional countries. Hence the copper market has served as a conduit for the spread of the effects of the Asian crisis to these countries as well as to copper producers and consumers worldwide. Trade reports suggest that the current price decline is more serious for copper producers than the most recent previous downturn, which occurred in 1993, because mining companies recently have had less of their production covered by forward sales.

    The aluminum market has been able to withstand the poorer demand prospects in Asia with little decline in price. Although the rates of growth in aluminum consumption in Korea and the ASEAN-4 countries in recent years have been almost the same as the rates of growth in copper consumption, the share of these countries in world aluminum consumption remains lower than their share in world copper consumption. More important, the major aluminum producers have shown themselves able to agree on “memoranda of understanding” to idle production capacity in order to reduce stocks, and, partly for this reason, aluminum stocks at the end of 1997 were about one-third lower than they were one year earlier. At the same time, growth in aluminum consumption outside Asia has been strong—particularly in Europe, where the European Aluminum Association has estimated a 6 percent increase in 1997.

    The decline in the price of timber from June 1997 to January 1998 was in the order of 25 percent. Reflecting in part the segmentation of this market, the price decline has been uneven across types of timber and across geographic markets. The price decline for Asian-grown (meranti) hardwood has been greatest and is attributable to a long period of persistent weak demand in Japan, the principal market, and to the depreciations of the Malaysian, Indonesian, and Thai currencies, which are expected to stimulate increased exports, irrespective of the increased interest recently shown in conservation measures. The cutback in construction activity in southeast Asian countries could also release increased supplies of timber for the export market. By contrast, the price for African-grown (sapele) hardwood in European markets has thus far changed little. Trade sources report that the adjustment has been small because some merchants in the European market already hold large inventories of meranti timber purchased before the price declines, and because other merchants do not wish to shift from sapele hardwood timber to meranti timber unless there are firm indications that a large price differential is likely to persist.

    The weakness in the softwood market reflects “oversupply” in the U.S. and Canadian lumber markets as well as weak demand in Korea and Japan. Production in Canada and the United States increased at a time of weak export demand. The demand by Japanese buyers for softwood was sluggish throughout the second half of 1997, and demand in other Asian countries, particularly Korea, fell sharply in the fourth quarter. This weak Asian demand affected softwood exports from Canada, Russia, and the United States. European demand for softwood, however, has been somewhat more buoyant, and consumption of sawn softwood in Europe is estimated to have increased in 1997 by about 4 percent, after two years of decline.

    The price of natural rubber declined by 37 percent over the period June 1997 to January 1998. This decline was the largest of the commodity price declines in this period. In addition, it differs from the price declines of the commodities discussed above in that it was a continuation of a downward trend that began as early as 1996, when world rubber production began to exceed world rubber consumption by a considerable margin and inventories were accumulated. The downward trend gained momentum with the financial crisis and currency depreciation in Thailand, the world’s leading producer of natural rubber (with a share of about 30 percent of world natural rubber production). Of more immediate interest to the market than the competitive effect of Thailand’s currency depreciation was the fate of the Thai government stockpile of about 122 thousand tons of natural rubber and the purchase operations of the Thai government’s Rubber Estate Organization. Another factor in the market for natural rubber has been the possibility of purchases by the buffer stock operating under the provisions of the 1995 International Natural Rubber Agreement.4

    Near-Term Outlook

    The near-term outlook for commodity prices is difficult to assess. It is not clear whether some markets have stabilized after the recent large price movements. As regards the near-term outlook for petroleum prices, considerable uncertainty remains about the supply response to the lower prices of early 1998. Prices for more distant deliveries on futures markets in any event are higher than prices for early delivery. In late March, future price quotations for December 1998 were $1.50 a barrel higher than quotations for May 1998, and quotations for December 1999 were about $0.40 a barrel higher than for December 1998.

    Some factors suggest that the downward trend in nonfuel commodity prices may have been arrested. First, weekly data show that the index of nonfuel commodity prices has remained almost unchanged since the beginning of January, whereas during December the index fell each week. Second, the current quotations for most futures and forward deliveries show higher prices for the later months of 1998 than for near months; this was not the case for many commodities as recently as December. Third, in February there was some turnaround in the prices of hides, natural rubber, and timber. At the same time, trade and press reports recently have been increasingly pessimistic about the demand for meat, cereals, and feedstuffs produced in the United States and other countries that are traditional exporters of these commodities. On the basis of futures and forward market prices and other information, the projected level of nonfuel commodity prices for calendar year 1998 is about 2 percent above the current level. Little change is indicated for 1999, in part because substantially lower prices expected for some commodities, especially for arabica coffee, may offset increases in other nonfuel commodity prices. In this scenario, commodity prices in real terms would not be far removed from the level that has tended to prevail since 1986 (Figure 33).

    Figure 33.Real Commodity Prices and World Output1

    1Shaded area indicates IMF staff projections.

    Statistical Appendix

    The statistical appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises four sections: Assumptions, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables.

    The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 1998–99 and the medium-term scenario for 2000–2003 are summarized in the first section. The second section provides a general description of the data, and the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the third section. Note that the group of advanced economies, previously labeled industrial countries, includes Israel and four newly industrialized Asian economies, which all were added to the industrial country group in the May 1997 issue of the World Economic Outlook.

    The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available at the end of March 1998. The figures for 1998 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures, solely for convenience; since they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

    Assumptions

    Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the four-week period February 9–March 4, 1998, except that the bilateral exchange rates among the ERM currencies are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms. For Greece and Ireland, whose exchange rates were realigned in mid- March, the reference period for the exchange rate assumption is March 16–17, 1998. For 1998 and 1999, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.356 and 1.358, respectively.

    Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected advanced economies are described in Box 4.

    It is assumed that the price of oil will average $14.59 a barrel in 1998 and $15.94 a barrel in 1999. In the medium term, the oil price is assumed to remain unchanged in real terms.

    With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 6.1 percent in 1998 and 1999; that the three-month certificate of deposit rate in Japan will average 0.7 percent in 1998 and 1.3 percent in 1999; and that the three-month interbank deposit rate in Germany will average 3.9 percent in 1998 and 4.5 percent in 1999.

    Data and Conventions

    Data and projections for 182 countries form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook (the World Economic Outlook database). The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and area departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

    Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the national compilation of statistics, including the analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The World Economic Outlook database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

    The completion in 1993 of the comprehensive revision of the standardized System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA) and the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM) represented important improvements in the standards of economic statistics and analysis.1 The IMF was actively involved in both projects, particularly the new Balance of Payments Manual, which reflects the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions. Key changes introduced with the new Manual were summarized in Box 13 of the May 1994 World Economic Outlook. The process of adapting country balance of payments data to the definitions of the new Balance of Payments Manual began with the May 1995 World Economic Outlook. However, full concordance with the BPM is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, and hence the World Economic Outlook estimates are still only partially adapted to the BPM.

    Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the developing and transition country groups, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply.

    • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and the growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of world or group GDP.

    • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities (PPPs) as a share of total world or group GDP.2

    • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

    • Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data, and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

    For central and eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies (through 1990) are converted to U.S. dollars at the implicit U.S. dollar/ruble conversion rates obtained from each country’s national currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and for the ruble.

    Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.

    Classification of Countries

    Summary of the Country Classification

    The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into three major groups: advanced economies, developing countries, and countries in transition.3 Rather than being based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, this classification has evolved over time with the objective of facilitating analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful organization of data. A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members, and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been compiled. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, whereas San Marino, among the advanced economies, is an example of an economy for which a database has not been completed. It should also be noted that, owing to lack of data, only three of the former republics of the dissolved Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Slovenia) are included in the group composites for countries in transition.

    Each of the three main country groups is further divided into a number of subgroups. Among the advanced economies, the seven largest in terms of GDP, collectively referred to as the major industrial countries, are distinguished as a subgroup, and so are the 15 current members of the European Union and the four newly industrialized Asian economies. The developing countries are classified by region, as well as into a number of analytical and other groups. A regional breakdown is also used for the classification of the countries in transition. Table A provides an overview of these standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average 1997 shares of groups in aggregate PPP-valued GDP, total exports of goods and services, and population.

    Table A.Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 19971(In percent of total for group or world)
    Number of CountriesGDPExports of Goods and ServicesPopulation
    Share of total for
    Advanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorld
    Advanced economies28100.055.3100.077.1100.015.7
    Major industrial countries780.144.362.748.474.511.7
    United States36.820.417.813.729.54.6
    Japan14.07.79.27.113.82.2
    Germany8.24.611.38.79.01.4
    France6.23.46.85.26.31.0
    Italy5.73.16.04.66.21.0
    United Kingdom5.93.27.05.46.41.0
    Canada3.31.84.73.63.30.5
    Other advanced economies2119.911.037.328.725.54.0
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries (former definition)2393.451.786.166.490.914.3
    European Union1535.819.849.137.940.66.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies46.13.413.310.38.51.3
    Developing countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorld
    Developing countries Regional groups128100.039.9100.018.6100.077.3
    Africa518.33.310.62.014.911.5
    Sub-Sahara486.02.48.01.513.410.4
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa463.61.54.10.810.27.9
    Asia2757.923.145.08.467.652.3
    China29.011.616.63.127.521.2
    India10.84.33.60.721.616.7
    Other Asia2518.27.224.84.618.614.4
    Middle East and Europe1711.64.620.53.86.65.1
    Western Hemisphere3322.18.823.94.410.88.4
    Analytical groups By source of export earnings
    Fuel179.83.919.03.56.75.2
    Nonfuel11190.236.081.015.193.372.2
    Manufactures654.721.839.27.357.644.5
    Primary products405.02.06.01.112.09.3
    Services, income, and private transfers393.81.54.70.94.23.3
    Diversified2626.710.631.05.819.515.1
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries72.81.111.12.10.80.6
    Net debtor countries12197.238.788.916.599.276.7
    Official financing629.43.77.81.520.816.1
    Private financing3463.925.563.311.845.435.1
    Diversified financing2523.89.517.83.333.025.5
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1992–966426.810.726.04.828.622.1
    Other net debtor countries5770.428.162.911.770.654.6
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries404.11.64.30.813.110.2
    Least developed countries464.41.82.60.513.510.4
    Middle East and north Africa2111.64.618.83.57.55.8
    Countries in transitionWorldCountries in transitionWorldCountries in transitionWorld
    Countries in transition28100.04.8100.04.2100.07.0
    Central and eastern Europe1851.72.557.42.445.13.1
    Excluding Belarus and Ukraine1641.02.048.82.129.92.1
    Russia38.81.935.71.536.62.5
    Transcaucasus and central Asia99.50.57.00.318.41.3

    The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs.

    General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

    Advanced Economies

    The composition of advanced economies (28 countries) is shown in Table B. The seven largest countries in this group in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major industrial countries, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. The current members of the European Union (15 countries) and the newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables under the heading “European Union” cover the current 15 members of the European Union for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

    Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup
    European UnionNewly Industrialized
    Asian Economies
    Other
    Countries
    Major industrial countries
    FranceCanada
    GermanyJapan
    ItalyUnited States
    United Kingdom
    Other advanced economies
    AustriaLuxembourgHong Kong SAR1Australia
    BelgiumNetherlandsKoreaIceland
    DenmarkPortugalSingaporeIsrael
    FinlandSpainTaiwan Province of ChinaNew Zealand
    GreeceSwedenNorway
    IrelandSwitzerland

    On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

    In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the eastern Länder (that is, the former German Democratic Republic). Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. Hence, in tables featuring data expressed as annual percent change, these apply to west Germany in years up to and including 1991, but to unified Germany from 1992 onward. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

    Developing Countries

    The group of developing countries (128 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as advanced economies or as countries in transition, together with a few dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.

    The regional breakdowns of developing countries in the World Economic Outlook conform to the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) classification—Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, and Western Hemisphere—with one important exception. Because all of the developing countries in Europe except Cyprus, Malta, and Turkey are included in the group of countries in transition, the World Economic Outlook classification places these three countries in a combined Middle East and Europe region. In both classifications, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in this region, not in Africa. Three additional regional groupings—two of them constituting part of Africa and one a subgroup of Asia—are included in the World Economic Outlook because of their analytical significance. These are sub-Sahara, sub-Sahara excluding Nigeria and South Africa, and Asia excluding China and India.

    The developing countries are also classified according to analytical criteria and into other groups. The analytical criteria reflect countries’ composition of export earnings and other income from abroad, a distinction between net creditor and net debtor countries, and, for the net debtor countries, financial criteria based on external financing source and experience with external debt servicing. Included as “other groups” are currently the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), the least developed countries, and Middle East and north Africa (MENA). The detailed composition of developing countries in the regional, analytical, and other groups is shown in Tables C through E.

    Table C.Developing Countries by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
    FuelManufacturesPrimary ProductsServices, Income, and Private TransfersDiversified Source of Export Earnings
    Africa
    Sub-SaharaAngolaBotswanaBeninCameroon
    Congo, Republic ofBurundiBurkina FasoKenya
    Central African RepublicCape VerdeMauritius
    GabonComorosSenegal
    NigeriaChadDjiboutiSierra Leone
    Congo, Democratic Republic ofEritreaSouth Africa
    Gambia, The
    Côte d’IvoireLesotho
    Equatorial GuineaMozambique, Republic of
    Ethiopia
    GhanaSeychelles
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Namibia
    Niger
    Rwanda
    São Tomé and Príncipe
    Somalia
    Sudan
    Swaziland
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Uganda
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    North AfricaAlgeriaMorocco
    AsiaTunisia
    Brunei DarussalamChinaCambodiaBhutanAfghanistan,
    IndiaMyanmarFijiIslamic State of Bangladesh
    MalaysiaPapua New GuineaKiribati
    PakistanSolomon IslandsMaldivesIndonesia
    ThailandVietnamMarshall IslandsLao People’s
    Micronesia, Federated States ofDemocratic Republic
    NepalPhilippines
    SamoaSri Lanka
    Tonga
    Vanuatu
    Middle East and Europe
    BahrainCyprusMalta
    Iran, Islamic Republic ofEgyptSyrian Arab Republic
    Jordan
    IraqLebanonTurkey
    KuwaitYemen, Republic of
    Libya
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    United Arab Emirates
    Western Hemisphere
    Trinidad and TobagoBrazilBoliviaAntigua and BarbudaArgentina
    ChileBahamas, TheColombia
    VenezuelaGuyanaBarbadosCosta Rica
    HondurasBelizeDominica
    NicaraguaDominican RepublicEcuador
    PeruEl SalvadorGuatemala
    SurinameGrenadaMexico
    HaitiNetherlands Antilles
    Jamaica
    PanamaUruguay
    Paraguay
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    St. Lucia
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines

    The first analytical criterion, by source of export earnings, distinguishes among five categories: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3); manufactures (SITC 5 to 9, less 68); nonfuel primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68); services, income, and private transfers (exporters of services and recipients of income from abroad, including workers’ remittances); and diversified export earnings. Countries whose 1990–93 export earnings in any of the first four of these categories accounted for more than half of total export earnings are allocated to that group, while countries whose export earnings were not dominated by any one of these categories are classified as countries with diversified export earnings (see Table C).

    The financial criteria first distinguish between net creditor and net debtor countries. Net creditor countries are defined as developing countries with positive net external assets at the end of 1995.4 Countries in the much larger net debtor group are differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by main source of external financing and by experience with debt servicing during the 1992–96 period.5

    Within the classification main source of external financing, three subgroups, based on country estimates of the composition of external financing, are identified: countries relying largely on official financing, countries relying largely on private financing, and countries with diversified financing source. Net debtor countries are allocated to the first two of these subgroups according to whether their official financing, including official grants, or their private financing, including direct and portfolio investment, accounted for more than two-thirds of their total 1991–95 external financing. Countries that do not meet either of these two criteria are classified as countries with diversified financing source (see Table D).

    Table D.Developing Countries by Region and Main External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Countries
    By main external financing source
    Net Creditor CountriesOfficial financingPrivate financingDiversified financing
    Africa
    Sub-Sahara
    Angola
    Benin
    Botswana
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cameroon
    Cape Verde
    Central African Republic
    Chad
    Comoros
    Congo, Republic of
    Congo, Democratic Republic of
    Côte d’Ivoire
    Djibouti
    Equatorial Guinea
    Eritrea
    Ethiopia
    Gabon
    Gambia, The
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Kenya
    Lesotho
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Mauritius
    Mozambique, Republic of
    Namibia
    Niger
    Nigeria
    Rwanda
    São Tomé and Príncipe
    Senegal
    Seychelles
    Sierra Leone
    Somalia
    South Africa
    Sudan
    Swaziland
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Uganda
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    North Africa
    Algeria
    Morocco
    Tunisia
    Asia
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh
    Bhutan
    Brunei Darussalam
    Cambodia
    China
    Fiji
    India
    Indonesia
    Kiribati
    Lao People’s Democratic Republic
    Malaysia
    Maldives
    Marshall Islands
    Micronesia, Federated States of
    Myanmar
    Nepal
    Pakistan
    Papua New Guinea
    Philippines
    Samoa
    Solomon Islands
    Sri Lanka
    Thailand
    Tonga
    Vanuatu
    Vietnam
    Middle East and Europe
    Bahrain
    Cyprus
    Egypt
    Iran, Islamic Republic of
    Iraq
    Jordan
    Kuwait
    Lebanon
    Libya
    Malta
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Syrian Arab Republic
    Turkey
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen, Republic of
    Western Hemisphere
    Antigua and Barbuda
    Argentina
    Bahamas, The
    Barbados
    Belize
    Bolivia
    Brazil
    Chile
    Colombia
    Costa Rica
    Dominica
    Dominican Republic
    Ecuador
    El Salvador
    Grenada
    Guatemala
    Guyana
    Haiti
    Honduras
    Jamaica
    Mexico
    Netherlands Antilles
    Nicaragua
    Panama
    Paraguay
    Peru
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    St. Lucia
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines
    Suriname
    Trinidad and Tobago
    Uruguay
    Venezuela

    The other groups of developing countries (see Table E) constitute the HIPCs, the least developed countries, and the MENA countries. The first group comprises 40 of the countries (all except Nigeria) considered by the IMF and the World Bank for their debt initiative, known as the HIPC Initiative.6 The group of least developed countries comprises 46 of the 47 developing countries classified as “least developed” by the United Nations (Tuvalu, not being an IMF member, is excluded). Finally, Middle East and north Africa, also referred to as the MENA countries, is a World Economic Outlook group, whose composition straddles the Africa and Middle East and Europe regions. It is defined as the Arab League countries plus the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    Table E.Other Developing Country Groups
    Heavily IndebtedLeast DevelopedMiddle East and
    Poor CountriesCountriesNorth Africa
    Africa
    Sub-Sahara
    Angola
    Benin
    Botswana
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cameroon
    Cape Verde
    Central African Republic
    Chad
    Comoros
    Congo, Republic of
    Congo, Democratic Republic of
    Côte d’Ivoire
    Djibouti
    Equatorial Guinea
    Ethiopia
    Gambia, The
    Ghana
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Kenya
    Lesotho
    Liberia
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Mozambique, Republic of
    Niger
    Rwanda
    São Tomé and Príncipe
    Senegal
    Sierra Leone
    Somalia
    Sudan
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Uganda
    Zambia
    North Africa
    Algeria
    Morocco
    Tunisia
    Asia
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of
    Bangladesh
    Bhutan
    Cambodia
    Kiribati
    Lao People’s Democratic Republic
    Maldives
    Myanmar
    Nepal
    Samoa
    Solomon Islands
    Vanuatu
    Vietnam
    Middle East and Europe
    Bahrain
    Egypt
    Iran, Islamic Republic of
    Iraq
    Jordan
    Kuwait
    Lebanon
    Libya
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Syrian Arab Republic
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen, Republic of
    Western Hemisphere
    Bolivia
    Guyana
    Haiti
    Honduras
    Nicaragua

    Countries in Transition

    The group of countries in transition (28 countries) comprises central and eastern European countries (including the Baltic countries), Russia, the other states of the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia. The transition country group is divided into three regional subgroups: central and eastern Europe, Russia, and Transcaucasus and central Asia. The detailed country composition is shown in Table F.

    Table F.Countries in Transition by Region
    Central and Eastern EuropeRussiaTranscaucasus and Central Asia
    AlbaniaLithuaniaRussiaRussia Armenia
    BelarusMacedonia, former Yugoslav Republic ofAzerbaijan
    Bosnia and HerzegovinaMoldovaGeorgia
    BulgariaPolandKazakhstan
    CroatiaRomaniaKyrgyz Republic
    Czech RepublicSlovak RepublicMongolia
    EstoniaSloveniaTajikistan
    HungaryUkraineTurkmenistan
    LatviaYugoslavia, Federal Republic ofUzbekistan

    One common characteristic of these countries is the transitional state of their economies from a centrally administered system to one based on market principles. Another is that this transition involves the transformation of sizable industrial sectors whose capital stocks have proven largely obsolete. Although several other countries are also “in transition” from partially command- based economic systems toward market-based systems (including China, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Vietnam, and a number of African countries), most of these are largely rural, low-income economies for whom the principal challenge is one of economic development. These countries are therefore classified in the developing country group rather than in the group of countries in transition.

    List of Tables

    Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

    Table A1.Summary of World Output1(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1980–891990–991990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    World3.33.22.61.82.62.73.93.64.14.13.13.7
    Advanced economies2.92.32.71.21.91.23.12.52.73.02.42.5
    United States2.72.21.2-0.92.72.33.52.02.83.82.92.2
    European Union2.22.03.01.61.0-0.52.92.51.72.62.82.8
    Japan3.81.85.13.81.00.30.61.53.90.91.3
    Other advanced economies4.53.93.72.83.34.15.74.84.14.42.53.7
    Developing countries4.35.74.05.06.66.56.86.06.65.84.05.3
    Regional groups
    Africa2.62.92.41.90.40.82.53.05.53.24.64.9
    Asia7.07.55.66.69.59.39.69.08.36.74.45.9
    Middle East and Europe2.24.05.63.66.53.90.73.64.94.43.34.0
    Western Hemisphere2.23.40.73.83.23.95.11.23.55.03.24.3
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel0.83.44.94.86.31.50.52.53.53.72.63.9
    Nonfuel5.05.93.85.06.77.17.56.56.96.04.25.4
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries0.43.87.25.08.44.01.71.23.53.30.33.5
    Net debtor countries4.55.73.95.06.66.66.96.26.75.94.15.3
    Official financing3.64.13.94.03.12.63.63.85.64.05.05.4
    Private financing4.66.33.56.07.87.97.76.36.76.34.75.6
    Diversified financing4.54.94.73.04.94.76.26.96.95.32.34.6
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1992–962.23.20.73.12.62.84.03.24.14.23.34.3
    Other net debtor countries6.06.85.55.98.48.28.27.47.76.54.55.7
    Countries in transition2.9-3.2-3.8-7.5-11.8-6.4-7.6-1.3-0.11.72.93.4
    Central and eastern Europe-10.0-8.7-3.6-3.01.41.52.73.94.2
    Excluding Belarus and Ukraine-10.8-5.10.53.05.33.63.14.44.6
    Russia-5.0-14.5-8.7-12.6-4.0-2.80.41.01.9
    Transcaucasus and central Asia-7.0-14.4-10.1-10.2-4.31.52.24.55.1
    Memorandum
    Median growth rate
    Advanced economies2.92.73.22.11.41.13.62.93.33.33.03.1
    Developing countries3.13.93.12.93.52.93.84.24.54.54.54.8
    Countries in transition3.5-2.0-2.9-10.8-11.4-7.9-2.31.62.83.24.64.8
    Output per capita
    Advanced economies2.21.61.90.41.20.62.51.81.92.41.82.0
    Developing countries1.93.72.13.04.04.54.54.24.54.02.33.6
    Countries in transition2.2-3.3-4.5-7.5-12.0-6.6-7.6-1.2-0.11.72.83.3
    Value of world output in billions of U.S. dollars
    At market exchange rates14,47226,84122,48923,64323,51624,02625,96628,80429,60029,47729,78131,110
    At purchasing power parities17,58433,42725,52426,98628,43529,88031,71333,63935,75938,04740,68543,606

    Real GDP.

    Table A2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1980–891990–991990199119921993199419951996199719981999199719981999
    Real GDP
    Advanced economies2.92.32.71.21.91.23.12.52.73.02.42.5
    Major industrial countries2.72.12.40.71.81.02.82.02.52.82.32.22.82.12.5
    United States2.72.21.2-0.92.72.33.52.02.83.82.92.23.82.42.2
    Japan3.81.85.13.81.00.30.61.53.90.91.3-0.20.42.5
    Germany21.82.55.75.02.2-1.22.71.81.42.22.52.82.32.43.1
    France2.31.82.50.81.2-1.32.82.11.52.42.93.03.12.63.2
    Italy2.41.52.21.10.6-1.22.22.90.71.52.32.72.82.32.9
    United Kingdom32.41.70.4-2.0-0.52.14.32.72.23.32.32.12.82.32.1
    Canada2.91.90.3-1.90.92.53.92.21.23.83.22.84.23.02.6
    Other advanced economies3.53.54.02.92.52.04.54.33.84.02.93.6
    Spain2.72.33.72.30.7-1.22.12.92.33.43.43.7
    Netherlands1.92.84.12.32.00.83.22.33.33.33.83.1
    Belgium1.71.93.01.61.5-1.52.42.11.52.72.62.8
    Sweden2.01.31.4-1.1-1.4-2.23.33.91.31.93.02.8
    Austria2.02.44.63.41.30.52.52.11.62.52.82.7
    Denmark1.82.31.21.41.31.33.53.13.43.02.72.7
    Finland3.71.3-7.1-3.6-1.24.55.13.65.93.53.4
    Greece41.81.83.10.7-1.61.71.82.63.33.53.3
    Portugal2.82.34.02.21.7-1.10.52.33.33.53.73.2
    Ireland3.46.57.81.93.93.17.010.47.78.38.26.8
    Luxembourg4.74.63.45.45.88.54.13.53.54.84.13.5
    Switzerland2.20.83.8-0.8-0.1-0.50.50.8-0.20.71.72.0
    Norway2.13.61.92.73.12.55.53.65.33.55.33.0
    Israel3.24.86.16.36.63.46.87.14.52.12.53.3
    Iceland3.22.21.21.1-3.41.03.61.05.24.84.03.8
    Korea7.86.39.59.15.15.88.68.97.15.5-0.84.1
    Australia3.32.91.5-0.72.43.85.53.53.63.13.23.4
    Taiwan Province of China8.16.15.47.66.86.36.56.05.76.95.05.2
    Hong Kong SAR7.34.83.45.16.36.15.43.94.95.33.04.3
    Singapore7.37.59.07.36.210.410.58.76.97.83.55.0
    New Zealand1.82.4-0.3-1.70.95.06.03.62.82.22.73.1
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.72.12.50.81.70.92.92.12.52.92.42.4
    European Union2.22.03.01.61.0-0.52.92.51.72.62.82.8
    Newly industrialized Asian economies7.86.17.37.95.86.37.67.36.46.11.84.5
    Real total domestic demand
    Advanced economies2.82.22.70.81.90.93.32.42.82.72.52.5
    Major industrial countries2.62.02.20.21.70.93.01.92.62.72.82.22.72.82.1
    United States2.42.40.8-1.62.82.93.91.92.94.14.12.24.43.91.6
    Japan3.61.65.22.90.40.11.02.34.8-0.5-0.70.8-1.90.41.8
    Germany1.32.35.24.82.8-1.42.72.00.81.22.22.71.32.62.9
    France2.31.42.80.60.2-2.23.01.81.01.13.02.91.92.93.0
    Italy2.71.22.51.80.5-4.51.52.30.32.52.62.93.72.23.8
    United Kingdom2.91.5-0.6-3.10.22.03.41.82.53.53.02.13.82.42.1
    Canada3.21.7-1.40.91.53.01.01.15.13.82.53.93.42.2
    Other advanced economies3.43.24.83.22.50.84.74.43.63.01.33.6
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.62.02.30.31.60.63.02.12.62.72.92.3
    European Union2.31.82.91.41.0-1.82.62.21.42.32.82.8
    Newly industrialized Asian economies7.05.810.59.66.65.78.67.06.43.2-3.34.6

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    Average of expenditure, income, and output estimates of GDP at market prices.

    Based on revised national accounts for 1988 onward.

    Table A3.Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1980–891990–991990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Private consumer expenditure
    Advanced economies3.02.42.91.42.41.72.82.42.72.72.32.6
    Major industrial countries2.92.12.60.92.21.62.52.12.42.52.32.3
    United States3.02.41.7-0.62.82.93.32.42.63.33.12.3
    Japan3.41.94.42.52.11.21.92.12.91.1-0.41.7
    Germany11.72.25.45.62.80.11.21.91.20.21.52.5
    France2.41.72.71.41.40.21.41.72.10.82.92.9
    Italy2.91.52.42.71.0-2.41.41.90.82.42.32.6
    United Kingdom3.42.00.6-2.2-0.12.52.81.73.64.63.62.6
    Canada2.92.11.3-1.41.81.93.11.72.43.93.72.7
    Other advanced economies3.33.44.23.83.51.94.03.73.83.42.33.4
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.82.22.61.02.11.42.52.22.42.52.42.4
    European Union2.42.03.02.31.6-0.21.71.92.02.12.62.7
    Newly industrialized Asian economies7.46.28.98.57.57.07.76.36.44.90.74.5
    Public consumption
    Advanced economies2.51.32.72.01.50.71.10.91.20.91.21.1
    Major industrial countries2.31.02.21.51.10.51.00.70.70.51.21.0
    United States2.50.72.31.0-0.1-0.30.4-0.11.21.51.1
    Japan2.71.71.52.02.02.42.43.31.5-0.11.40.6
    Germany11.31.62.20.54.1-0.52.12.22.4-0.41.61.8
    France2.31.82.12.83.43.41.11.71.51.11.4
    Italy2.50.31.31.71.10.5-0.6-1.00.2-0.7-0.11.0
    United Kingdom1.00.92.52.6-0.1-0.22.21.31.2-0.50.3
    Canada2.50.43.72.81.0-0.2-1.8-0.4-1.3-0.10.20.6
    Other advanced economies3.42.54.94.23.21.41.71.53.12.51.11.5
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.42.42.31.71.20.61.00.80.80.61.21.1
    European Union2.02.02.32.12.20.91.10.91.30.31.01.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.14.58.88.07.42.02.52.27.25.30.21.9
    Gross fixed capital formation
    Advanced economies3.02.82.7-1.61.5-0.44.43.85.23.74.84.3
    Major industrial countries2.82.61.9-2.41.9-0.24.03.05.23.35.94.1
    United States2.24.1-1.4-6.65.25.16.64.37.46.49.85.7
    Japan4.31.28.53.3-1.5-2.0-0.81.79.5-3.4-1.4-0.9
    Germany11.02.28.56.03.5-5.63.50.8-1.20.22.44.1
    France2.20.52.8-2.8-6.71.32.5-0.50.74.34.1
    Italy2.30.83.60.8-1.8-12.80.57.10.40.65.15.6
    United Kingdom3.90.4-3.5-9.5-1.50.64.31.51.54.84.02.8
    Canada5.32.2-3.6-3.5-1.3-2.97.1-2.84.811.48.56.0
    Other advanced economies4.03.66.31.9-1.46.17.15.25.20.65.1
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.82.61.9-2.51.3-0.84.03.55.13.75.84.2
    European Union2.51.53.8-0.2-1.0-6.42.43.81.22.74.44.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies7.76.416.711.16.06.410.39.57.03.3-10.15.5
    Final domestic demand
    Advanced economies2.92.33.01.01.91.02.72.53.02.42.52.6
    Major industrial countries2.82.02.50.41.80.92.42.02.72.22.82.4
    United States2.82.41.2-1.42.72.73.32.43.03.54.22.7
    Japan3.61.75.42.70.90.31.12.14.8-0.5-0.50.8
    Germany11.42.35.44.73.2-1.31.91.70.90.11.72.7
    France2.41.52.61.30.8-0.71.31.51.51.02.82.9
    Italy2.71.12.42.10.5-4.00.92.30.61.52.42.9
    United Kingdom3.01.50.2-2.6-0.31.62.91.62.73.63.02.1
    Canada3.31.80.9-0.81.00.52.70.42.04.43.92.9
    Other advanced economies3.53.35.03.52.51.14.24.14.03.51.23.5
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.72.02.50.51.70.72.42.22.72.32.82.5
    European Union2.31.73.01.71.1-1.31.72.01.71.92.62.8
    Newly industrialized Asian economies7.36.011.69.36.66.18.06.96.84.3-3.34.5
    Stock building2
    Advanced economies-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.10.5-0.20.30.1-0.1
    Major industrial countries-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.60.1-0.10.5-0.2
    United States-0.4-0.4-0.20.20.20.6-0.50.6-0.5
    Japan-0.1-0.20.2-0.5-0.1-0.20.20.1-0.1
    Germany1-0.10.1-0.10.1-0.4-0.10.80.3-0.11.10.50.1
    France-0.10.2-0.7-0.6-1.51.70.3-0.50.20.20.1
    Italy0.10.1-0.30.1-0.60.6-0.31.00.30.1
    United Kingdom-0.1-0.8-0.50.50.40.50.2-0.2-0.1
    Canada-0.1-0.9-0.5-0.11.00.30.6-0.90.70.1-0.4
    Other advanced economies-0.1-0.3-0.30.50.3-0.3-0.50.10.1
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.10.6-0.20.40.1-0.2
    European Union-0.1-0.3-0.1-0.50.80.2-0.30.40.20.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies-0.1-0.1-0.90.30.10.10.70.1-0.3-1.10.10.1
    Foreign balance2
    Advanced economies0.10.30.3-0.2-0.10.3-0.10.1
    Major industrial countries0.20.50.1-0.20.1-0.20.1-0.5
    United States-0.1-0.20.30.6-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.2-0.5-1.20.1
    Japan0.30.20.90.60.2-0.3-0.8-0.81.40.60.5
    Germany10.50.30.80.5-0.60.3-0.20.61.00.40.1
    France-0.10.4-0.30.20.90.9-0.20.30.61.3-0.10.1
    Italy-0.20.3-0.4-0.7-0.73.40.70.70.4-0.9-0.2-0.2
    United Kingdom-0.50.21.01.20.40.90.9-0.5-0.4-0.8
    Canada-0.30.20.6-0.21.00.80.90.3-1.4-0.40.3
    Other advanced economies0.30.3-0.6-0.21.2-0.2-0.10.31.31.50.2
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries0.10.20.50.10.3-0.1-0.10.1-0.4
    European Union0.30.1-0.11.30.30.30.30.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies1.20.5-2.5-1.4-0.40.7-0.90.40.33.74.90.4

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

    Table A4.Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real Per Capita GDP(In percent)
    Ten-Year Averages1
    1980–891990–991990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Unemployment rate
    Advanced economies6.97.15.96.67.47.77.67.37.37.17.06.7
    Major industrial countries6.96.85.86.57.27.37.26.97.06.76.66.5
    United States27.35.95.66.87.56.96.15.65.44.95.05.0
    Japan2.52.92.12.12.22.52.93.13.33.43.63.6
    Germany37.09.16.25.57.78.89.69.410.411.511.411.2
    France9.011.28.99.410.311.612.311.612.412.511.911.3
    Italy49.811.411.010.910.710.211.312.012.112.312.011.6
    United Kingdom9.07.45.88.09.710.39.38.27.55.64.94.8
    Canada9.39.68.110.411.311.210.49.59.79.28.58.2
    Other advanced economies7.28.06.36.87.79.09.18.68.58.28.57.5
    Spain17.920.216.216.318.422.724.222.922.220.819.718.5
    Netherlands7.87.07.06.66.67.78.68.37.66.65.65.1
    Belgium11.111.68.79.310.312.012.912.912.712.512.312.1
    Sweden2.56.31.52.95.38.28.07.78.08.17.06.5
    Austria3.56.55.45.85.96.86.56.67.07.17.16.9
    Denmark8.99.69.610.511.312.312.110.18.77.87.36.9
    Finland4.913.13.57.613.117.918.417.216.314.512.611.1
    Greece7.39.27.07.78.79.79.610.010.310.39.79.4
    Portugal7.85.94.24.14.15.56.87.27.36.76.66.5
    Ireland14.212.613.415.515.115.714.712.211.510.29.38.7
    Luxembourg1.42.71.31.41.62.12.73.03.33.73.94.2
    Switzerland0.63.70.51.12.54.54.74.24.75.25.04.8
    Norway2.74.95.25.55.96.05.44.94.84.13.63.6
    Israel6.08.69.610.611.210.07.86.96.77.78.17.4
    Iceland0.83.61.81.53.04.44.85.04.33.93.63.3
    Korea3.82.92.52.32.42.82.42.02.02.76.33.4
    Australia7.68.97.09.610.810.99.78.58.68.68.17.5
    Taiwan Province of China1.91.91.61.41.51.41.51.82.62.72.62.4
    Hong Kong SAR2.92.21.31.82.02.01.93.22.82.22.52.4
    Singapore3.62.71.71.92.72.72.62.73.02.43.33.6
    New Zealand5.17.97.810.310.39.58.16.36.16.87.06.5
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries7.27.46.26.97.88.28.17.77.87.57.27.1
    European Union9.110.48.18.69.911.211.611.211.411.110.610.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies3.22.62.12.02.12.32.12.12.32.64.83.1
    Growth in employment
    Advanced economies1.20.81.60.1-0.1-0.11.01.10.91.30.81.2
    Major industrial countries1.10.61.5-0.10.90.80.71.20.70.7
    United States1.71.21.3-0.90.71.52.31.51.42.21.01.0
    Japan1.10.72.01.91.10.20.10.10.51.10.10.4
    Germany30.4-0.33.01.7-1.9-1.8-0.7-0.4-1.3-1.4-0.3-0.1
    France0.10.31.10.2-0.6-1.2-0.11.10.41.11.0
    Italy0.4-0.31.41.4-1.1-4.1-1.7-0.50.40.40.6
    United Kingdom0.60.4-3.1-2.4-0.80.80.91.21.71.20.5
    Canada2.01.00.6-1.9-0.61.42.11.61.31.92.31.8
    Other advanced economies1.31.22.00.7-0.1-0.51.42.11.71.61.12.5
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries1.10.71.5-0.1-0.3-0.30.81.00.91.30.90.9
    European Union0.40.11.70.1-1.6-2.0-0.30.60.40.60.90.8
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.52.02.32.31.91.52.82.21.91.7-0.24.0
    Growth in real per capita GDP
    Advanced economies2.21.61.90.41.20.62.51.81.92.41.82.0
    Major industrial countries2.11.41.61.10.42.21.41.62.21.71.7
    United States1.81.20.22.01.61.22.51.01.52.82.01.3
    Japan3.11.54.73.40.70.41.33.50.7-0.21.1
    Germany31.72.03.84.21.4-1.92.41.51.02.12.52.9
    France1.81.42.00.40.8-1.72.41.61.22.02.52.7
    Italy2.31.52.00.80.90.21.92.80.51.52.32.6
    United Kingdom2.21.40.1-2.6-0.91.84.03.01.93.02.01.9
    Canada1.70.7-1.2-3.1-0.21.42.81.00.12.72.11.8
    Other advanced economies2.82.73.22.01.81.23.73.53.03.32.23.0
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.11.51.71.00.32.21.61.72.31.91.9
    European Union2.01.72.31.00.7-0.72.62.31.42.42.62.7
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.45.06.16.94.85.36.36.14.85.10.93.6

    Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

    The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the new survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    New series starting in 1993, reflecting revisions in the labor force surveys and the definition of unemployment to bring data in line with those of other advanced economies.

    Table A5.Developing Countries: Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1980–891990–991990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Developing countries4.35.74.05.06.66.56.86.06.65.84.05.3
    Regional groups
    Africa2.62.92.41.90.40.82.53.05.53.24.64.9
    Sub-Sahara2.63.02.31.80.11.52.24.14.94.04.14.8
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa2.93.31.71.60.21.42.34.65.64.55.25.7
    Asia7.07.55.66.69.59.39.69.08.36.74.45.9
    Excluding China and India5.15.47.56.56.66.16.77.56.54.1-0.33.4
    Middle East and Europe2.24.05.63.66.53.90.73.64.94.43.34.0
    Western Hemisphere2.23.40.73.83.23.95.11.23.55.03.24.3
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel0.83.44.94.86.31.50.52.53.53.72.63.9
    Manufactures6.77.13.55.78.79.39.68.77.86.55.06.1
    Nonfuel primary products2.24.51.63.23.34.34.86.15.65.55.25.8
    Services, income, and private transfers4.43.62.13.12.62.73.24.04.34.84.15.7
    Diversified3.14.35.14.54.54.44.72.55.85.22.34.0
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries0.43.87.25.08.44.01.71.23.53.30.33.5
    Net debtor countries4.55.73.95.06.66.66.96.26.75.94.15.3
    Official financing3.64.13.94.03.12.63.63.85.64.05.05.4
    Private financing4.66.33.56.07.87.97.76.36.76.34.75.6
    Diversified financing4.54.94.73.04.94.76.26.96.95.32.34.6
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1992–962.23.20.73.12.62.84.03.24.14.23.34.3
    Other net debtor countries6.06.85.55.98.48.28.27.47.76.54.55.7
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries2.73.61.81.11.61.82.65.25.64.95.45.8
    Least developed countries2.84.33.32.32.63.72.96.05.75.45.55.7
    Middle East and north Africa2.03.64.23.95.62.02.52.14.83.53.54.4
    Memorandum
    Real per capita GDP
    Developing countries1.93.72.13.04.04.54.54.24.54.02.33.6
    Regional groups
    Africa-0.30.4-0.2-0.8-2.3-1.80.82.90.72.12.5
    Asia5.15.83.94.87.77.57.57.46.75.23.04.5
    Middle East and Europe-1.20.83.51.8-0.21.4-3.1-1.92.62.00.81.6
    Western Hemisphere1.6-1.21.81.21.93.30.60.73.31.52.7
    Table A6.Developing Countries—by Country: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1980–89
    19901991199219931994199519961997
    Africa2.62.41.90.40.82.53.05.53.2
    Algeria1.60.8-1.21.6-2.2-1.13.93.81.3
    Angola2.4-0.50.7-1.0-21.27.811.87.26.5
    Benin1.42.64.74.03.54.44.65.65.8
    Botswana11.47.27.53.02.03.65.16.95.5
    Burkina Faso3.4-1.510.02.5-0.81.23.86.25.5
    Burundi3.43.55.00.7-5.9-3.7-7.3-8.44.4
    Cameroon5.0-6.2-3.8-3.1-3.2-2.53.35.05.1
    Cape Verde4.4-1.61.43.34.23.84.73.03.0
    Central African Republic1.7-1.7-0.8-2.5-2.37.72.3-2.84.6
    Chad5.01.98.58.0-15.710.23.63.08.6
    Comoros3.05.1-5.48.53.0-5.3-3.9-0.4
    Congo6.40.92.42.6-1.0-5.52.25.90.3
    Congo, Dem. Rep. of1.6-6.6-8.4-10.5-13.5-3.90.70.9-5.7
    Côte d’Ivoire1.6-1.1-0.2-0.22.07.16.86.0
    Djibouti0.7-0.60.5-0.2-3.9-2.9-4.0-5.11.0
    Equatorial Guinea2.43.3-1.114.06.35.114.329.176.1
    Eritrea-2.59.83.06.87.0
    Ethiopia1.42.7-3.1-3.712.01.75.410.65.3
    Gabon0.45.26.1-3.32.43.43.83.14.5
    Gambia, The2.95.72.24.41.81.3-4.03.12.1
    Ghana1.83.45.33.95.03.84.55.23.0
    Guinea2.94.32.43.04.74.04.44.54.7
    Guinea-Bissau3.44.65.11.12.13.24.44.65.1
    Kenya4.44.51.4-0.80.32.64.54.21.3
    Lesotho4.13.32.51.87.210.29.312.57.2
    Liberia-0.9
    Madagascar0.33.1-6.31.22.11.72.13.5
    Malawi1.75.78.7-7.39.7-10.214.511.74.6
    Mali1.80.4-0.98.4-2.42.36.44.06.7
    Mauritania5.1-1.82.61.74.94.24.34.44.5
    Mauritius4.74.76.44.86.74.33.44.75.6
    Morocco3.84.06.9-4.0-1.010.4-7.012.1-2.2
    Mozambique, Rep. of0.51.04.9-0.818.84.51.46.26.6
    Namibia0.15.77.4-2.06.65.13.04.0
    Niger0.6-1.32.4-6.51.44.02.63.33.5
    Nigeria1.97.56.02.62.21.13.14.65.1
    Rwanda1.80.4-4.36.6-6.8-49.024.612.013.0
    Sao Tome and Principe-1.4-2.21.20.71.12.22.01.52.0
    Senegal2.43.9-0.42.2-2.22.94.85.65.2
    Seychelles2.67.52.76.95.1-1.6-1.81.52.0
    Sierra Leone0.61.6-8.0-9.60.13.5-10.05.0
    Somalia1.6
    South Africa2.2-0.3-1.0-2.21.32.73.43.21.7
    Sudan2.97.96.23.81.84.54.34.75.5
    Swaziland4.98.92.51.33.43.42.53.03.0
    Tanzania2.95.44.51.30.91.42.64.14.1
    Togo1.3-0.2-0.7-4.0-16.416.86.88.24.8
    Tunisia3.47.13.99.72.23.32.46.95.6
    Uganda2.65.85.23.18.45.310.58.15.0
    Zambia1.4-0.5-1.76.8-8.6-4.36.43.5
    Zimbabwe4.7-1.85.7-8.91.36.80.17.33.7
    Asia7.05.66.69.59.39.69.08.36.7
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of-2.0-2.60.81.0-3.1-3.026.26.06.0
    Bangladesh4.05.14.14.84.84.75.25.65.5
    Bhutan7.55.93.94.45.05.16.96.05.7
    Brunei Darussalam2.74.0-1.10.51.82.02.83.5
    Cambodia1.27.67.04.14.07.66.56.5
    China9.53.89.214.213.512.610.59.78.8
    Fiji2.03.21.54.83.54.22.43.33.6
    India6.05.91.74.25.06.97.97.55.6
    Indonesia5.39.08.97.27.37.58.28.05.0
    Kiribati-5.0-3.22.8-1.60.91.83.22.02.5
    Lao P.D. Republic5.96.74.07.05.98.17.17.57.0
    Malaysia5.89.68.67.88.39.29.58.67.8
    Maldives10.416.27.66.36.26.67.26.56.2
    Marshall Islands3.20.10.14.12.83.7-2.5-7.5
    Micronesia, Fed. States of-2.74.3-1.25.71.41.01.0-3.0
    Myanmar1.82.8-0.79.75.96.87.27.07.0
    Nepal3.56.44.63.37.92.95.43.84.5
    Pakistan6.44.55.57.81.93.95.14.53.5
    Papua New Guinea1.6-3.09.511.816.65.2-2.94.5-6.2
    Philippines1.93.0-0.60.32.14.44.85.75.1
    Samoa0.2-9.4-2.3-0.24.1-6.59.65.84.1
    Solomon Islands0.81.02.012.34.05.86.94.44.3
    Sri Lanka4.26.24.64.36.95.64.83.86.0
    Thailand7.311.68.18.28.58.68.85.5-0.4
    Vanuatu2.35.24.7-0.74.52.53.23.03.0
    Vietnam5.04.96.08.68.18.89.59.37.5
    Middle East and Europe2.25.63.66.53.90.73.64.94.4
    Bahrain2.44.64.67.88.32.42.23.13.1
    Cyprus6.17.30.49.71.56.15.32.43.5
    Egypt6.02.42.10.30.52.93.24.35.0
    Iran, Islamic Republic of0.411.210.66.12.10.92.85.13.2
    Iraq-0.2-26.0-62.929.2-6.710.0
    Jordan3.11.01.816.15.68.16.95.25.0
    Kuwait-1.9-26.2-41.077.434.28.41.00.91.5
    Lebanon-4.3-13.438.24.57.08.06.54.04.0
    Libya-2.38.212.0-4.20.1-0.9-1.12.02.6
    Malta4.06.36.34.74.54.09.03.73.7
    Oman8.38.46.08.56.13.84.83.53.6
    Qatar-0.4-14.8-0.49.3-0.42.3-1.110.015.5
    Saudi Arabia1.410.78.42.8-0.60.50.51.42.7
    Syrian Arab Republic2.67.67.110.66.77.63.65.55.0
    Turkey4.29.20.85.07.7-4.77.57.15.7
    United Arab Emirates-1.117.50.22.7-0.92.26.19.53.0
    Yemen, Republic of0.34.92.9-0.58.25.25.5
    Western Hemisphere2.20.73.83.23.95.11.23.55.0
    Antigua and Barbuda6.72.32.70.45.56.2-5.05.13.3
    Argentina-1.0-1.310.510.36.38.5-4.64.28.4
    Bahamas, The3.41.2-2.7-2.01.70.90.34.23.0
    Barbados1.7-3.3-3.9-5.70.84.02.95.24.3
    Belize4.310.23.19.54.31.53.81.52.9
    Bolivia-0.24.65.31.64.14.63.93.54.3
    Brazil2.8-4.31.0-0.54.95.94.22.83.0
    Chile3.43.37.311.06.34.28.57.26.6
    Colombia3.44.32.04.05.45.85.72.03.2
    Costa Rica2.53.62.27.36.04.52.4-0.63.2
    Dominica5.65.30.72.10.81.81.43.32.5
    Dominican Republic3.6-5.81.08.03.04.34.87.38.2
    Ecuador2.33.05.03.62.04.42.32.03.3
    El Salvador-1.24.93.67.47.46.06.32.53.7
    Grenada5.05.23.61.1-1.23.33.13.53.6
    Guatemala0.93.13.74.83.94.04.93.04.1
    Guyana-2.1-2.56.17.88.28.65.07.96.1
    Haiti0.3-0.10.3-13.2-2.4-8.34.42.81.8
    Honduras2.50.13.35.66.0-1.54.54.54.5
    Jamaica2.24.10.81.81.01.0-1.4-2.0
    Mexico2.55.14.23.62.04.5-6.25.27.0
    Netherlands Antilles0.61.51.83.70.32.4-2.43.0
    Nicaragua-0.9-0.1-0.20.4-0.23.34.24.54.5
    Panama1.88.19.48.25.52.91.82.53.7
    Paraguay3.73.12.51.84.13.14.71.33.5
    Peru-3.22.9-1.86.413.17.22.67.5
    St. Kitts and Nevis5.63.03.93.55.05.53.75.85.9
    St. Lucia6.34.12.37.12.12.24.13.73.5
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines6.25.43.14.92.1-0.46.73.35.0
    Suriname-1.50.12.94.0-9.5-5.47.16.75.6
    Trinidad and Tobago-2.91.52.7-1.7-1.63.62.43.14.1
    Uruguay1.00.93.27.92.96.4-1.94.96.0
    Venezuela0.16.59.76.10.3-2.43.7-0.45.1

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    Table A7.Countries in Transition: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1980–89
    19901991199219931994199519961997
    Central and eastern Europe-10.0-8.7-3.6-3.01.41.52.7
    Albania2.5-10.0-28.0-7.29.69.48.99.1-7.0
    Belarus-1.2-9.7-7.6-12.6-10.42.810.0
    Bulgaria3.6-09.1-11.7-7.3-1.51.82.1-10.9-7.4
    Croatia-0.90.61.74.36.3
    Czech Republic0.62.75.94.11.2
    Czechoslovakia, former2.5-0.4-15.98.5
    Estonia-7.9-21.6-8.2-1.84.34.010.9
    Hungary1.5-3.5-11.9-3.1-0.62.91.51.34.0
    Latvia-11.1-35.2-16.12.10.32.86.0
    Lithuania-6.0-19.6-17.1-11.22.35.16.0
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of-9.4-2.7-1.60.91.5
    Moldova-17.5-29.11.2-31.2-1.4-7.81.3
    Poland0.5-11.6-7.02.63.85.27.06.16.9
    Romania1.7-5.6-12.9-8.81.53.96.93.9-6.6
    Slovak Republic-3.74.66.87.05.7
    Slovenia2.85.34.13.13.7
    Ukraine-10.6-17.0-14.2-22.9-12.2-10.0-3.2
    Yugoslavia, former0.7-7.5-17.0-34.0
    Russia-5.0-14.5-8.7-12.6-4.0-2.80.4
    Transcaucasus and central Asia-7.0-14.4-10.1-10.2-4.31.52.2
    Armenia-12.4-52.6-14.15.46.95.83.3
    Azerbaijan-0.7-22.1-23.1-18.1-11.01.35.8
    Georgia-20.6-44.8-25.4-11.42.410.511.0
    Kazakhstan-11.0-5.3-10.6-12.6-8.20.52.1
    Kyrgyz Republic-7.9-13.9-15.5-20.1-5.45.66.2
    Mongolia6.6-5.6-9.2-9.5-3.02.36.32.63.0
    Tajikistan-7.1-28.9-11.1-21.4-12.5-4.42.2
    Turkmenistan-4.7-5.3-10.0-18.8-8.2-7.7-25.9
    Uzbekistan-0.5-11.1-2.3-4.2-0.91.62.4

    Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises or of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

    Table A8.Summary of Inflation(In percent)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1980–891990–991990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies6.22.74.54.53.42.82.22.32.01.81.71.7
    United States5.02.74.34.02.82.62.42.52.32.01.62.1
    European Union7.33.25.35.54.53.72.62.92.41.81.71.8
    Japan2.20.72.32.71.70.60.2-0.6-0.50.6-0.3
    Other advanced economies11.13.65.65.53.63.42.93.42.82.63.82.6
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies6.33.05.24.63.53.02.62.52.42.12.12.0
    United States5.53.15.44.23.03.02.62.82.92.32.02.4
    European Union7.03.35.45.14.53.83.02.92.51.92.02.0
    Japan2.51.33.13.31.71.20.7-0.10.11.70.90.4
    Other advanced economies11.34.06.36.33.93.33.43.63.22.74.32.8
    Developing countries36.028.868.136.238.346.850.721.713.78.510.28.5
    Regional groups
    Africa16.021.917.524.332.131.234.633.926.210.57.56.0
    Asia8.88.26.57.86.810.314.711.96.73.98.06.2
    Middle East and Europe19.526.722.427.525.624.631.935.924.522.626.626.3
    Western Hemisphere116.791.2438.3129.1151.4208.8210.235.922.313.19.17.4
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel13.322.714.321.322.826.132.442.430.614.914.411.3
    Nonfuel40.529.877.638.440.649.753.119.511.97.89.88.2
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries2.63.23.96.13.24.23.45.02.11.21.41.8
    Net debtor countries37.629.871.137.439.848.652.622.214.18.710.58.7
    Official financing19.117.419.725.322.122.824.922.115.99.37.16.5
    Private financing53.739.7116.449.456.170.776.925.715.29.29.07.9
    Diversified financing12.412.313.316.011.611.511.613.510.57.215.911.7
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1992–9676.878.4294.1107.5131.0179.7188.937.920.810.38.67.1
    Other net debtor countries18.112.112.212.511.012.716.716.411.58.111.29.3
    Countries in transition8.6120.338.695.8656.6609.3268.4124.141.427.813.88.7
    Central and eastern Europe95.4283.0357.7153.375.332.438.417.211.4
    Excluding Belarus and Ukraine98.8103.879.945.125.123.440.915.89.2
    Russia92.71,353.0895.9302.0190.147.814.78.15.0
    Transcaucasus and central Asia110.9945.31,224.21,667.7183.668.729.520.110.5
    Memorandum
    Median inflation rate
    Advanced economies6.92.85.44.03.23.02.42.42.11.72.12.1
    Developing countries9.98.410.411.89.89.710.310.07.15.64.84.1
    Countries in transition1.2165.68.1101.4839.5472,2131.646.024.114.811.07.7
    Table A9.Advanced Economies: GDP Deflators and Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1980–891990–991990199119921993199419951996199719981999199719981999
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies6.22.74.54.53.42.82.22.32.01.81.71.7
    Major industrial countries5.32.44.14.13.02.51.92.01.81.61.31.51.41.41.6
    United States5.02.74.34.02.82.62.42.52.32.01.62.11.81.82.2
    Japan2.20.72.32.71.70.60.2-0.6-0.50.6-0.30.9-0.1-0.4
    Germany23.02.43.23.95.64.02.42.11.00.60.51.30.50.81.7
    France7.11.93.13.32.12.51.51.61.11.01.31.41.21.41.4
    Italy11.74.47.67.74.74.43.55.15.02.62.01.72.21.61.8
    United Kingdom7.53.56.46.54.63.21.62.43.12.62.62.12.22.62.1
    Canada5.81.73.12.71.31.21.22.61.40.51.11.6-0.31.61.7
    Other advanced economies10.34.06.46.34.84.13.53.52.82.83.42.6
    Spain10.04.47.37.16.94.34.04.83.12.22.22.2
    Netherlands2.32.12.32.72.31.92.31.61.32.12.02.5
    Belgium4.72.43.13.23.64.22.31.71.61.41.41.8
    Sweden8.13.38.87.61.02.62.53.71.02.02.02.4
    Austria4.12.63.43.74.32.82.82.12.11.61.31.6
    Denmark6.42.33.42.52.20.82.42.11.92.22.52.5
    Finland7.42.15.72.60.72.41.32.41.31.21.92.0
    Greece17.911.320.619.814.814.511.39.18.57.05.33.8
    Portugal18.66.612.114.913.26.85.05.02.82.82.52.1
    Ireland8.61.5-0.81.82.24.31.10.41.21.51.81.4
    Luxembourg3.41.92.22.22.90.95.51.0-0.42.41.21.4
    Switzerland3.82.04.26.02.72.71.61.30.30.50.9
    Norway7.72.63.92.9-0.32.3-0.23.44.13.13.53.5
    Israel104.711.616.120.712.211.112.59.311.410.47.35.6
    Iceland36.94.716.87.83.72.42.02.81.92.94.03.5
    Korea8.46.29.910.16.15.15.55.63.44.78.33.8
    Australia8.32.14.82.11.51.50.92.62.21.91.13.1
    Taiwan Province of China4.22.93.83.83.93.51.91.92.71.34.41.4
    Hong Kong SAR8.96.57.59.29.78.56.92.65.56.54.93.7
    Singapore3.62.94.93.70.95.53.82.71.41.52.52.1
    New Zealand11.61.93.81.01.72.81.62.61.90.11.82.4
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries5.62.54.44.33.22.62.02.21.91.61.41.6
    European Union7.33.25.35.54.53.72.62.92.41.81.71.8
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.85.07.37.65.65.14.43.93.43.76.33.0
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies6.33.05.24.63.53.02.62.52.42.12.12.0
    Major industrial countries5.52.74.84.33.22.82.22.32.22.01.71.91.91.81.9
    United States5.53.15.44.23.03.02.62.82.92.32.02.41.92.12.5
    Japan2.51.33.13.31.71.20.7-0.10.11.70.90.42.20.30.4
    Germany2,32.92.72.73.55.14.42.71.81.51.81.61.71.81.71.7
    France7.32.13.43.22.42.11.71.82.01.21.41.81.21.71.8
    Italy11.24.16.56.35.34.64.15.23.91.71.81.71.61.71.8
    United Kingdom47.03.98.16.84.73.02.42.82.92.82.92.62.82.92.5
    Canada6.52.24.85.61.51.80.22.21.61.41.51.91.22.01.8
    Other advanced economies10.14.26.76.24.84.04.13.73.22.63.72.7
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries5.82.85.04.53.32.92.32.42.32.01.81.9
    European Union7.03.35.45.14.53.83.02.92.51.92.02.0
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.75.26.97.15.64.25.64.64.23.67.23.5

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    Based on the revised consumer price index for united Germany introduced in September 1995.

    Retail price index excluding mortgage interest.

    Table A10.Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1980–891990–991990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Hourly earnings
    Advanced economies8.34.46.66.05.83.94.03.53.73.63.43.3
    Major industrial countries6.63.85.85.35.33.52.83.03.33.22.93.1
    United States5.73.74.75.34.32.92.82.83.33.44.03.8
    Japan4.03.06.55.94.62.62.72.51.73.2-0.60.6
    Germany15.13.85.7-0.39.66.71.94.14.31.12.43.1
    France8.93.74.85.44.63.53.71.62.93.23.63.7
    Italy13.75.48.79.46.64.22.65.45.35.03.43.4
    United Kingdom10.15.59.48.26.64.54.84.54.44.44.93.8
    Canada6.22.55.24.73.52.11.61.43.20.30.72.2
    Other advanced economies15.76.810.39.28.05.99.05.25.45.15.64.4
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries7.74.06.15.65.43.63.63.23.43.33.03.2
    European Union10.84.97.35.87.05.05.04.04.13.33.63.6
    Newly industrialized Asian economies12.310.718.915.213.59.810.97.59.38.59.65.0
    Productivity
    Advanced economies3.93.02.32.02.82.34.93.83.24.22.42.2
    Major industrial countries3.12.92.21.82.61.74.33.63.24.52.42.3
    United States2.83.01.82.33.62.22.63.13.94.33.52.5
    Japan3.01.52.81.5-3.7-1.63.54.94.05.6-1.60.1
    Germany12.64.63.50.44.03.28.65.35.57.44.24.0
    France4.14.01.51.34.29.03.92.47.05.15.4
    Italy4.02.71.41.33.91.96.05.9-0.42.82.12.6
    United Kingdom3.92.42.62.96.35.05.20.8-0.81.00.60.7
    Canada1.71.73.30.64.34.22.60.20.4-0.20.70.8
    Other advanced economies7.63.62.63.13.44.87.24.63.12.92.61.8
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries3.92.82.01.72.62.04.73.53.04.22.42.2
    European Union5.63.42.01.43.93.17.74.01.94.23.02.9
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.16.48.88.56.47.87.28.47.24.63.51.7
    Unit labor costs
    Advanced economies4.31.34.23.92.91.6-0.9-0.40.5-0.60.91.1
    Major industrial countries3.51.03.53.52.71.8-1.4-0.50.2-1.30.50.8
    United States2.90.72.92.90.70.70.1-0.3-0.5-0.90.41.3
    Japan1.01.43.54.38.64.3-0.7-2.3-2.2-2.30.90.5
    Germany12.4-0.72.1-0.75.43.4-6.1-1.1-1.1-5.8-1.7-0.9
    France4.6-0.33.34.00.33.6-4.9-2.30.5-3.6-1.5-1.6
    Italy9.32.67.28.02.62.2-3.2-0.45.82.21.30.7
    United Kingdom6.03.16.65.20.3-0.5-0.43.75.33.34.33.1
    Canada4.40.81.84.1-0.8-2.0-1.01.32.70.51.4
    Other advanced economies8.02.97.35.74.11.01.30.32.02.02.72.4
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries3.81.24.03.82.81.6-1.10.30.5-0.90.61.0
    European Union5.21.45.24.33.01.8-2.52.1-0.80.60.7
    Newly industrialized Asian economies4.84.88.55.14.91.32.1-1.71.12.84.72.5

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    Table A11.Developing Countries: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1980–891990–991990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Developing countries36.032.468.136.238.346.850.721.713.78.510.28.5
    Regional groups
    Africa16.018.917.524.332.131.234.633.926.210.57.56.0
    Sub-Sahara19.022.619.727.237.739.142.540.532.813.29.17.2
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa20.826.425.937.145.546.052.645.544.516.410.27.3
    Asia8.88.56.57.86.810.314.711.96.73.98.06.2
    Excluding China and India9.69.79.711.06.87.87.98.67.66.520.113.7
    Middle East and Europe19.523.022.427.525.624.631.935.924.522.626.626.3
    Western Hemisphere116.7103.6438.3129.1151.4208.8210.235.922.313.19.17.4
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel13.317.914.321.322.826.132.442.430.614.914.411.3
    Manufactures40.437.898.241.857.178.684.018.47.63.74.03.6
    Nonfuel primary products52.644.6153.482.043.335.334.524.621.611.77.86.0
    Services, income, and private transfers16.714.622.021.319.313.514.112.89.25.64.64.5
    Diversified41.931.947.429.018.916.016.221.619.716.224.320.0
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries2.62.93.96.13.24.23.45.02.11.21.41.8
    Net debtor countries37.633.671.137.439.848.652.622.214.18.710.58.7
    Official financing19.118.219.725.322.122.824.922.115.99.37.16.5
    Private financing53.746.5116.449.456.170.776.925.715.29.29.07.9
    Diversified financing12.412.313.316.011.611.511.613.510.57.215.911.7
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1992–9676.877.6294.1107.5131.0179.7188.937.920.810.38.67.1
    Other net debtor countries18.115.112.212.511.012.716.716.411.58.111.29.3
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries30.231.936.851.345.045.550.744.941.014.59.77.3
    Least developed countries20.022.030.239.036.130.935.725.521.510.38.27.2
    Middle East and north Africa13.614.216.119.818.016.417.723.013.38.18.87.7
    Memorandum
    Median
    Developing countries9.98.410.411.89.89.710.310.07.15.64.84.1
    Regional groups
    Africa10.310.310.110.510.19.524.612.48.58.05.54.3
    Asia8.77.69.211.98.88.77.28.16.64.85.55.4
    Middle East and Europe6.45.69.89.06.95.04.75.06.52.73.13.3
    Western Hemisphere13.010.721.822.712.110.78.310.27.15.75.04.0
    Table A12.Developing Countries—by Country: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1980–89
    19901991199219931994199519961997
    Africa16.017.524.332.131.234.633.926.210.5
    Algeria9.016.725.931.720.529.029.818.75.7
    Angola5.61.883.6299.11,379.5949.82,671.64,145.3111.2
    Benin2.21.12.15.90.538.614.94.73.3
    Botswana11.811.411.816.214.310.510.510.18.8
    Burkina Faso4.9-0.52.2-2.01.024.77.86.12.0
    Burundi7.07.09.04.59.714.719.426.425.8
    Cameroon7.61.5-0.61.9-3.712.730.96.44.3
    Cape Verde12.510.68.07.05.93.48.45.98.9
    Central African Republic5.8-0.2-2.8-0.8-2.924.519.24.40.6
    Chad4.60.54.2-3.8-7.041.39.511.36.7
    Comoros5.3-7.41.7-1.42.025.37.11.42.5
    Congo7.12.6-1.6-3.94.942.98.610.28.6
    Congo. Dem. Rep. of57.581.32,154.44,129.21,893.123,760.5541.8610.6190.0
    Cote d’Ivoire5.8-0.71.64.22.126.014.32.75.6
    Djibouti5.07.86.83.44.46.54.94.03.0
    Equatorial Guinea18.30.70.91.01.638.911.44.53.0
    Eritrea4.611.610.79.33.2
    Ethiopia6.05.220.823.010.11.213.40.9-6.4
    Gabon6.15.73.3-10.80.636.110.04.52.5
    Gambia, The16.610.29.112.05.94.04.04.82.1
    Ghana44.337.218.010.124.924.959.545.628.3
    Guinea33.319.419.616.67.14.25.63.01.9
    Guinea-Bissau57.733.057.669.448.215.245.450.749.1
    Kenya11.411.219.627.345.928.81.59.011.2
    Lesotho14.211.617.717.213.18.29.39.38.4
    Liberia7.3
    Madagascar18.311.88.515.39.239.149.019.86.7
    Malawi16.811.98.223.222.834.783.137.79.1
    Mali3.81.61.5-5.9-0.624.812.46.4-0.4
    Mauritania8.46.45.610.19.34.16.53.03.0
    Mauritius11.210.712.82.98.99.46.15.89.0
    Morocco7.57.08.05.75.25.16.13.01.0
    Mozambique, Rep. of36.743.733.345.142.363.154.444.66.9
    Namibia13.112.011.917.78.510.810.08.010.2
    Niger3.8-2.0-1.9-1.7-0.435.610.95.32.9
    Nigeria19.87.413.044.657.257.070.029.38.3
    Rwanda4.64.219.69.512.464.022.08.911.0
    Sao Tome and Principe13.842.246.533.725.526.636.835.545.3
    Senegal6.70.3-1.8-0.1-0.632.18.52.81.8
    Seychelles3.93.92.03.21.31.80.2-1.01.0
    Sierra Leone57.7110.9102.765.517.618.429.823.1
    Somalia52.4
    South Africa14.614.415.213.99.79.08.67.48.6
    Sudan42.3145.0104.0103.0118.057.071.0114.032.0
    Swaziland13.411.011.08.211.213.812.311.211.0
    Tanzania30.530.431.724.823.830.234.025.717.1
    Togo4.81.10.21.6-0.135.315.84.68.2
    Tunisia8.76.58.25.84.04.76.23.83.7
    Uganda115.945.432.942.230.06.56.17.57.8
    Zambia36.6109.697.7165.7183.354.634.943.124.4
    Zimbabwe12.917.423.342.127.622.322.621.419.5
    Asia8.86.57.86.810.314.711.96.73.9
    Afghanistan, Islamic State of21.6157.8166.058.234.020.014.014.014.0
    Bangladesh11.26.06.33.53.16.37.74.55.1
    Bhutan9.49.413.316.08.98.110.77.07.0
    Brunei Darussalam2.11.61.34.32.46.02.03.0
    Cambodia141.8197.075.0114.5-0.57.77.26.5
    China7.12.12.75.413.021.714.86.11.5
    Fiji7.411.96.18.26.54.95.20.6
    India9.19.913.09.88.410.010.26.96.1
    Indonesia9.67.89.47.59.78.59.47.96.6
    Kiribati6.73.85.74.06.15.23.6-0.64.0
    Lao RD. Republic54.335.713.49.86.36.825.77.54.5
    Malaysia3.62.82.64.73.53.73.43.52.7
    Maldives7.03.614.716.820.13.45.56.27.2
    Marshall Islands0.74.010.35.05.67.34.03.5
    Micronesia, Fed. States of3.54.05.06.04.04.04.03.0
    Myanmar10.121.929.122.333.622.428.920.010.0
    Nepal8.59.821.08.98.97.68.19.07.5
    Pakistan7.29.111.63.69.611.812.110.312.5
    Papua New Guinea6.37.07.04.35.02.917.311.63.9
    Philippines14.112.718.78.97.69.08.18.45.1
    Samoa13.215.28.51.718.41.07.03.53.5
    Solomon Islands11.88.610.89.210.417.19.87.25.0
    Sri Lanka12.621.512.211.411.78.47.715.99.7
    Thailand5.76.05.74.13.45.15.85.95.6
    Vanuatu8.75.05.64.13.62.32.20.92.5
    Vietnam124.167.084.437.88.39.417.05.73.1
    Middle East and Europe19.522.427.525.624.631.935.924.522.6
    Bahrain2.11.31.02.10.43.1-0.21.0
    Cyprus5.74.55.06.54.94.73.13.03.1
    Egypt17.321.219.521.111.29.09.47.26.2
    Iran, Islamic Republic of19.69.020.724.422.935.249.423.116.9
    Iraq18.550.0263.812.868.044.7208.434.545.0
    Jordan6.816.18.24.03.33.52.46.53.0
    Kuwait3.69.89.1-0.50.42.52.71.81.7
    Lebanon68.988.950.199.824.78.010.68.98.5
    Libya7.78.611.718.023.017.010.07.06.0
    Malta3.43.02.61.64.14.24.02.52.5
    Oman1.810.04.61.01.1-0.7-1.10.3
    Qatar4.03.04.43.1-0.91.33.02.52.6
    Saudi Arabia2.14.6-0.40.80.65.00.9-0.5
    Syrian Arab Republic22.611.19.011.013.215.37.78.72.5
    Turkey49.660.366.070.166.1106.393.682.385.4
    United Arab Emirates5.10.65.56.95.03.94.43.64.4
    Yemen, Republic of44.950.662.371.862.527.36.3
    Western Hemisphere116.7438.3129.1151.4208.8210.235.922.313.1
    Antigua and Barbuda5.66.54.63.03.13.52.73.51.2
    Argentina318.92,314.7171.724.910.64.23.40.20.8
    Bahamas, The6.24.67.15.72.71.32.11.41.2
    Barbados7.23.06.36.01.2-0.12.42.47.7
    Belize4.53.03.22.41.42.52.96.31.1
    Bolivia230.217.121.412.18.57.910.212.44.7
    Brazil237.32,740.0414.8991.42,111.42,166.259.715.56.0
    Chile21.226.021.815.412.711.48.27.46.2
    Colombia23.329.130.427.022.422.820.920.818.5
    Costa Rica25.519.028.721.89.813.523.217.613.3
    Dominica7.41.95.55.41.61.31.72.2
    Dominican Republic21.750.547.14.35.38.312.55.48.4
    Ecuador32.148.448.854.645.027.323.024.430.6
    El Salvador18.424.014.411.218.510.610.19.85.5
    Grenada6.82.82.63.82.82.62.22.81.1
    Guatemala12.541.035.110.213.412.58.411.09.4
    Guyana26.263.6101.528.211.713.612.37.13.6
    Haiti7.620.419.021.318.837.430.221.98.9
    Honduras7.221.226.09.110.722.518.58.35.0
    Jamaica16.924.868.657.524.531.721.721.59.8
    Mexico65.126.722.715.59.87.035.034.420.6
    Netherlands Antilles4.83.73.81.51.91.92.73.53.5
    Nicaragua380.03,127.57,755.340.520.47.711.26.85.7
    Panama2.90.50.81.61.01.30.82.3-0.5
    Paraguay20.338.124.215.218.220.513.49.88.3
    Peru193.67,481.6409.573.548.623.711.111.58.6
    St. Kitts and Nevis4.64.24.22.91.81.43.02.08.0
    St. Lucia5.43.86.25.60.82.65.93.33.0
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines6.07.35.93.84.30.42.44.43.5
    Suriname12.121.826.043.7143.4368.5235.5-0.87.2
    Trinidad and Tobago11.811.03.86.511.15.65.33.33.6
    Uruguay56.5112.5101.868.554.244.742.228.319.8
    Venezuela21.540.734.231.438.160.859.999.950.0

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    Table A13.Countries in Transition: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1980–89
    19901991199219931994199519961997
    Central and eastern Europe95.4283.0357.7153.375.332.438.4
    Albania35.8225.285.022.67.812.732.1
    Belarus83.5969.01,190.02,220.0709.052.764.0
    Bulgaria2.523.9333.582.072.896.062.1123.01,084.4
    Croatia1,516.097.51.63.53.6
    Czech Republic20.810.09.18.88.4
    Czechoslovakia, former1.510.859.011.0
    Estonia210.61.069.089.047.728.923.111.3
    Hungary8.928.634.822.822.418.828.323.518.3
    Latvia124.4951.3109.135.825.117.68.4
    Lithuania224.71.020.5410.472.139.524.78.8
    Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of338.7126.516.42.51.3
    Moldova162.01,276.0788.5329.630.223.511.8
    Poland43.0585.870.343.035.332.227.919.915.0
    Romania2.9127.9161.1210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.8
    Slovak Republic23.013.49.95.86.2
    Slovenia31.919.812.69.79.1
    Ukraine91.21,209.94.735.2891.2376.480.215.9
    Yugoslavia, former107.6583.1117.46,146.6
    Russia92.71,353.0895.9302.0190.147.814.7
    Transcaucasus and central Asia110.9945.31,224.21,667.7183.668.729.5
    Armenia100.3824.53,731.85,273.4176.718.613.9
    Azerbaijan105.6912.61,129.71,664.1411.719.84.0
    Georgia78.5887.43,125.415,606.5162.739.37.3
    Kazakhstan91.01,515.71,662.31,879.9176.339.117.1
    Kyrgyz Republic85.0854.6772.4228.752.530.425.6
    Mongolia0.220.2202.6268.487.656.844.336.9
    Tajikistan111.61,156.72,194.9350.4610.0418.088.0
    Turkmenistan102.5492.93,102.41,748.01,005.0992.084.0
    Uzbekistan169.0645.2534.01,568.0116.964.445.0

    For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

    Table A14.Summary Financial Indicators(In percent)
    1990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Advanced economics
    Central government Fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies-2.6-3.0-4.0-4.2-3.5-3.2-2.6-1.5-1.2-1.0
    United States-3.0-3.5-4.7-3.9-2.7-2.3-1.4-0.5-0.2
    European Union-3.5-3.8-4.8-5.9-5.3-4.5-4.0-2.3-1.9-1.7
    Japan-0.5-0.2-1.7-2.7-3.5-4.1-4.2-3.7-3.6-3.2
    Other advanced economies-0.6-1.9-2.1-2.0-1.2-0.8-0.20.60.40.6
    General government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies-2.0-2.7-3.7-4.2-3.4-3.3-2.5-1.3-1.1-0.8
    United States-2.7-3.3-4.4-3.6-2.3-1.9-1.1-0.20.10.4
    European Union-3.6-4.3-5.1-6.4-5.7-5.2-4.3-2.3-2.0-1.7
    Japan2.92.91.5-1.6-2.3-3.6-4.3-3.4-3.8-2.9
    Other advanced economies-0.9-2.4-3.2-2.7-1.5-1.0-0.10.80.80.8
    General government structural balance1
    Advanced economics-3.2-3.0-3.3-3.1-2.6-2.5-1.9-0.7-0.6-0.3
    Growth of broad money
    Advanced economies8.25.83.13.92.54.45.15.2
    United States4.13.11.81.30.63.94.65.6
    European Union11.69.54.65.92.24.45.95.3
    Japan7.42.3-0.22.22.83.33.24.0
    Other advanced economies11.98.88.17.99.38.18.56.0
    Short-term interest rates2
    United States7.55.43.43.04.25.55.05.15.45.5
    Japan6.97.04.12.71.91.00.30.30.30.7
    Germany8.49.29.57.25.34.53.33.33.74.3
    LIBOR8.46.13.93.45.16.15.65.96.16.1
    Developing countries
    Central government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average-3.0-3.5-3.1-3.4-2.8-2.6-2.4-2.2-2.5-1.8
    Median-4.0-4.0-3.8-4.2-4.1-3.5-2.6-2.4-2.3-1.8
    General government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average-3.9-3.8-3.4-3.7-3.0-3.2-2.9-2.8-2.8-2.3
    Median-4.0-3.7-3.8-4.2-4.1-3.5-2.3-2.4-2.3-1.5
    Growth of broad money
    Weighted average95.574.084.285.770.825.122.420.114.114.9
    Median18.118.817.916.418.916.414.212.210.810.4
    Countries in transition
    Central government fiscal balance1-4.2-9.1-9.86.0-7.1-3.7-5.0-4.3-3.4-2.2
    General government fiscal balance1-4.3-9.5-14.0-6.8-6.9-4.4-5.1-4.8-3.9-16
    Growth of broad money21.7118.0521.3398.8186.366.731.026.416.817.9

    In percent of GDP.

    For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for Germany, three-month interbank deposits; for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

    Table A15.Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Fiscal Balances and Balances Excluding Social Security Transactions1(In percent of GDP)
    1990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    General government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies-2.0-2.7-3.7-4.2-3.4-3.3-2.5-1.3-1.1-0.8
    Major industrial countries-2.1-2.7-3.8-4.3-3.5-3.4-2.8-1.4-1.3-0.9
    United States-2.7-3.3-4.4-3.6-2.3-1.9-1.1-0.20.10.4
    Japan2.92.91.5-1.6-2.3-3.6-4.3-3.4-3.8-2.9
    Germany2-2.0-3.3-2.8-3.2-2.4-3.3-3.4-2.7-2.7-2.5
    France3-1.6-2.0-3.8-5.6-5.6-5.0-4.1-3.0-3.0-2.7
    Italy-11.1-10.1-9.6-10.0-9.2-7.7-6.7-2.72.52.5
    United Kingdom4-1.2-2.6-6.3-7.9-6.95.6-4.6-1.6-0.3
    Canada-4.0-6.6-7.5-7.3-5.3-4.0-1.71.01.61.6
    Other advanced economies-1.6-2.6-3.3-3.8-3.0-2.71.5-0.5-0.411.2
    Spain-3.7-4.4-3.5-6.7-6.3-6.7-4.4-2.6-2.2-2.0
    Netherlands-5.1-2.9-3.9-3.2-3.8-4.0-2.3-1.4-1.7-1.3
    Belgium-5.5-6.3-6.9-7.1-4.9-3.9-3.2-2.1-1.7-1.6
    Sweden4.2-1.1-7.8-12.3-10.3-6.9-3.5-0.41.32.0
    Austria-2.1-3.0-2.0-4.2-4.9-5.2-4.0-2.5-2.5-2.5
    Denmark-1.0-2.4-2.2-2.8-2.7-2.20.90.41.22.0
    Finland5.3-1.5-5.9-8.0-6.2-5.2-3.1-0.90.51.0
    Greece-16.1-11.5-12.8-13.8-10.3-9.8-7.64.0-2.4-2.0
    Portugal-5.6-6.6-3.3-6.0-6.1-5.8-3.3-2.5-2.5-1.9
    Ireland-2.3-2.3-2.5-2.7-1.7-2.2-0.40.90.50.3
    Luxembourg4.81.90.81.62.81.92.51.70.60.9
    Switzerland-2.1-3.4-3.6-2.8-1.8-1.8-2.7-3.4-3.0
    Norway2.60.1-1.7-1.40.43.35.97.15.66.5
    Israel-4.8-4.8-3.4-3.0-2.3-3.4-4.1-3.1-2.8-2.3
    Iceland-3.3-2.9-2.8-4.5-4.7-3.0-1.6-0.7-0