Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
September 2006
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    ANNEX IMF EXECUTIVE BOARD DISCUSSION OF THE OUTLOOK, MARCH 2007

    The following remarks by the Acting Chair were made at the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion of the World Economic Outlook on March 26, 2007.

    Executive Directors welcomed the continued strong, broad-based expansion of the global economy during 2006, and noted that activity in most regions met or exceeded expectations. Looking forward, Directors believed that the global expansion would slow only modestly in 2007 and 2008 and inflationary pressures would remain contained. Directors noted that the composition of demand is expected to be more balanced among the major advanced economies in 2007, with the United States, the euro area, and Japan all expanding slightly above 2 percent. Directors also saw continued strong, albeit somewhat less rapid, growth among emerging market and developing countries.

    Risks around this central scenario appear to be more evenly balanced than at the time of the last World Economic Outlook (WEO) discussion in September 2006, but still tilted to the downside. In this context, Directors generally were of the view that the recent market turbulence represented a correction after a period of asset price buoyancy that does not require a fundamental revision in the positive global economic outlook. Some Directors were less sanguine about the risks to the outlook, pointing to heightened concerns about the stability of financial markets, slowing productivity and its implications for growth, and continuing uncertainties regarding oil and other commodity price developments. All Directors underscored the need for continued vigilance.

    Directors discussed the downside risks facing the global economy. Most emphasized that the ongoing correction in the U.S. housing market could have a growing impact on the broader economy. Directors underscored that persistently higher financial market volatility could prompt a further retrenchment from riskier assets and markets—with several noting the potential for increased market volatility—and called for careful monitoring of market developments. Directors also recognized the possibility that inflationary pressures could revive as resource utilization constraints start to bind, and stressed the risk of a reversal of the recent decline in oil prices—given continuing geopolitical tensions and limited spare production capacity. They also noted continued risks that the existing large global imbalances could unwind in a disorderly way.

    Directors considered that a key question in assessing risks to the outlook relates to the extent to which the world economy will remain on a sound growth trajectory even if the U.S. economy slows more sharply—or whether global prospects may decouple from the United States, especially in light of the limited impact of the recent cooling of U.S. activity. In this context, Directors welcomed the staff’s analysis of cross-country growth spillovers, and attributed the limited global impact so far to several factors. In particular, the U.S. slowdown has been focused on the housing sector, which has a relatively low import content. Also, the causes of the slowing have been specific to the U.S. economy, rather than a common event simultaneously affecting many countries. Nevertheless, a number of Directors observed that the greater integration fostered by globalization has increased the potential magnitude of spillovers, and that a sharp further slowing in the U.S. economy would likely have a substantial impact on global growth. Directors recognized, however, that the strength of spillovers experienced by individual countries would vary both with the extent of their trade and financial linkages with the United States and with the degree of domestic vulnerabilities.

    Advanced Economies

    Directors noted that the U.S. economy has slowed noticeably over the past year, largely owing to the correction in the housing sector, while private consumption has so far remained robust. Nevertheless, activity in the United States is expected to regain momentum in the period ahead with growth rates rising during the course of 2007 and returning to potential in 2008. Directors expressed concern, however, about the recent evidence of intensifying difficulties in the subprime mortgage market, which could start to impose a broader drag on the economy, particularly if the housing downturn deepens and credit standards are tightened more generally. In this vein, some Directors considered that the impact of the weakening housing sector may not yet have played out fully, and that a deeper-than-anticipated downturn in the United States should not be ruled out. Although inflationary pressures have eased somewhat following the decline in oil prices from last year’s highs, core inflation remains elevated. Directors supported the Federal Reserve’s approach in recent months of holding the policy rate steady, while appreciating that the Fed stands ready to respond to shifts in the balance of risks between growth and inflation. Directors welcomed the indications that the FY2008 budget will seek to balance the federal budget by FY2012, while expressing a preference for the more ambitious target of aiming to achieve balance excluding the social security surplus. Fiscal consolidation will need to be supported by reforms to put the Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid systems on a sustainable long-term footing.

    Directors welcomed the acceleration in real GDP growth in the euro area in 2006, and saw the risks to the outlook as evenly balanced. They considered that further cautious withdrawal of monetary accommodation by the European Central Bank would be warranted to forestall inflationary pressures, contingent on the recovery progressing as expected. Directors welcomed the progress made toward needed fiscal consolidation, but felt that more ambitious efforts are warranted given the strong cyclical upswing and the looming pressures from the aging of the population. Directors also underscored the importance of further policy reforms under the Lisbon agenda to bolster prospects for a sustained long-term expansion, particularly steps to boost productivity and increase labor utilization. Recent experience has also underlined the importance of complementary product and services market reforms to foster job creation and expenditure-based fiscal consolidation.

    Directors welcomed the emergence of the Japanese economy from its mid-2006 soft patch. With inflation still close to zero, Directors generally supported the Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to raising interest rates since exiting its zero interest rate policy last year, and suggested that monetary accommodation should be removed only if the expansion remains strong, and then only gradually. Directors suggested that greater clarity regarding the Bank of Japan’s medium-term inflation goals would also help to anchor private sector expectations, while reducing risks of an abrupt unwinding of yen carry trades with sharp movements in exchange rates or the volume of capital flows. Fiscal consolidation appears to be running ahead of the government’s plans to achieve a primary surplus by FY2011, but additional fiscal efforts beyond those contained in the current medium-term plan will be needed to put net debt on a declining trajectory. Further progress on structural reforms will also be important to enhance growth with spillover benefits to the world economy.

    Emerging Market and Other Developing Countries

    Directors welcomed the strong performance of the economies in emerging Asia, with the vibrant expansions in China and India leading the way. Most Directors were confident that the region is well positioned to withstand a U.S. slowdown, although some others cautioned that spillovers could still be sizable, as growing intra-regional trade in part represents shipments of intermediate goods ultimately destined for the United States. Against the background of widening current account surpluses in some countries in the region, Directors took note of the differing degrees of exchange rate flexibility observed within the region. Many Directors considered that greater flexibility of the renminbi would help provide a more secure base for monetary policy management in China, while also helping to contain China’s widening current account surplus.

    Directors observed that growth in Latin America exceeded 5 percent in 2006, supported by a strong external environment and generally sound economic policies. Although the pace of growth is likely to ease somewhat in the next two years, Directors commented that strengthened fundamentals and improved macroeconomic policy frameworks should enable countries in Latin America to maintain growth rates even in the face of a sharper-than-expected U.S. slowdown. Nevertheless, the region remains vulnerable to a softening of commodity prices, which would pose policy challenges in several countries by putting pressure on current account and fiscal balances. Directors also noted that fiscal reforms will be important to create more room for increased spending on well-targeted social programs. Reforms to improve the region’s disappointing productivity performance are also a priority.

    Directors welcomed the strong growth in emerging Europe, noting that the expansion is likely to moderate in 2007 in response to slower growth in western Europe. While the widening current account deficits should be comfortably financed in most countries, Directors cautioned that a deterioration in global financial conditions could reduce capital inflows in the future. Directors also drew attention to the slowing pace of reform among the new European Union members, which again underscores the importance of structural reforms to facilitate continuing smooth convergence within the European Union.

    Directors observed that economic activity in the Commonwealth of Independent States has continued to be boosted by high commodity prices, and growth prospects appear generally positive. They expressed concern that strong capital inflows and robust domestic demand growth, driven in part by large public spending increases that have outpaced revenue growth, have kept inflation high in many countries. Consequently, Directors saw a need for greater spending restraint as well as for tighter monetary policy and, in some cases, greater exchange rate flexibility, to contain inflationary pressures. Sustaining the recent strong growth momentum will also require reforms aimed at attracting greater private investment to diversify the sources of growth away from the export of primary commodities.

    While recognizing the variety of challenges facing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Directors welcomed the continued strong expansion seen in the region as a whole, as well as the prospects for a further acceleration in growth in 2007. At the same time, Directors highlighted the vulnerabilities of the non-oil-exporting economies in the region to commodity price shocks or further increases in oil prices. Sustained macroeconomic stability and structural reforms will be necessary to foster vibrant market-based economies and sustain the recent improvement in the region’s growth performance. Directors underscored that most countries in the region would benefit from further trade liberalization, improved market access for their exports, and delivery on aid commitments by advanced economies to support progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals. Measures to strengthen institutions and the business environment will also help spur private sector activity, and reduce the region’s still-high reliance on commodity exports.

    In the context of continued high oil prices, Middle Eastern oil exporters enjoyed another year of solid growth, accompanied by strong current account and fiscal balances. Directors viewed the outlook for the region as a whole as favorable, and welcomed the public investment plans among the GCC countries. Nonetheless, the region remains heavily dependent on the hydrocarbon sector, while rising populations are contributing to high unemployment rates. In this context, Directors underscored the importance of fostering greater private investment in the non-oil sector in order to balance the sources of growth and increase employment opportunities. Also important will be measures to improve the business environment and adapt education systems to align the skills mix of the labor force with the needs of the private sector. In the non-oil-exporting countries of the Mashreq region, growth accelerated in 2006 in the context of an upturn in foreign direct investment and the overall favorable external environment.

    Directors noted that many emerging market and developing countries around the world face the challenge of taking advantage of strong capital inflows to support investment, while avoiding large swings in competitiveness and a buildup of balance sheet vulnerabilities. Noting that there is no simple recipe that can be uniformly applied, Directors highlighted the importance of balanced and flexible approaches to macroeconomic management that suit the circumstances of each country, while avoiding steps that could undermine confidence or distort markets. Several Directors also recognized that even countries with credible policy frameworks and strong institutions and financial systems may be vulnerable to large and volatile capital flows, and could benefit from Fund advice on policy options tailored to their circumstances in the context of Article IV consultations.

    Multilateral Issues

    Underscoring the shared responsibility among policymakers for maintaining the foundations for strong global growth, Directors emphasized the importance of policy actions across key countries to support the smooth unwinding of large global imbalances. Important elements of such an approach include efforts to raise national saving in the United States, including through further fiscal consolidation; advancing growth-enhancing reforms in the euro area; further structural reforms, including fiscal consolidation, in Japan; and initiatives to encourage consumption and greater exchange rate flexibility in some parts of emerging Asia, especially China. Directors were of the view that lower oil prices and increased spending would reduce external surpluses among Middle Eastern oil exporters, but saw scope for continuing to boost spending—subject to absorptive capacity constraints. A few Directors also considered that an increase in energy taxation in the United States could help reduce the country’s high levels of oil consumption, thereby contributing to a reduction in global imbalances as well as to reducing environmental consequences. In this context, Directors took note of the U.S. administration’s recently announced objective of curbing gasoline consumption.

    Directors took note of the staff’s analysis—based on historical episodes of reversals of current account imbalances and a closer look at U.S. trade behavior—that real exchange rates can play a potentially important role in the adjustment process in countries with large and persistent current account surpluses and deficits. However, they emphasized that exchange rate changes, while supportive of adjustment, must be accompanied by policy actions to rebalance domestic demand. In this vein, several Directors considered that the analysis usefully complements earlier WEO studies on the importance of domestic policy adjustments and exchange rate movements in the resolution of imbalances. Directors generally acknowledged that a shared willingness of authorities across key regions to allow real exchange rates to adjust—particularly where they are not freely floating—could prove to be a crucial ingredient of policies to promote a smooth resolution of the large global imbalances. While the staff’s analysis suggests that the U.S. trade deficit could be more responsive to real exchange rate changes than is commonly found in the macroeconomic literature, many Directors were not convinced by this finding and felt that additional research and analysis in this area, using alternative methodologies, should be undertaken before firm conclusions can be drawn. Some other Directors emphasized, however, that the staff’s finding is an important result.

    Directors welcomed the staff’s analysis on how the rapid growth of international trade and the introduction of new technologies are beginning to forge an increasingly integrated global labor market. This integration is contributing to growth and incomes in both source and host countries, but at the same time it is affecting distributional outcomes and may thus be contributing indirectly to protectionist sentiment. Steps to do more to help those who are adversely affected by developments in technology and trade should include better education systems, more flexible labor markets, and welfare systems that cushion the impact of—but do not obstruct—economic change.

    Directors welcomed the revival of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. A successful outcome would, by further strengthening multilateral rules and reducing the risks of protectionism, boost medium-term global prospects. Prospects for a gradual unwinding of global imbalances would also benefit from initiatives to remove obstacles to the smooth reallocation of resources in response to exchange rate movements, including through trade reform.

    STATISTICAL APPENDIX

    The statistical appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises five sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables.

    The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2007–08 and the medium-term scenario for 2009–12 are summarized in the first section. The second section presents a brief description of changes to the database and statistical tables. The third section provides a general description of the data, and of the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the fourth section.

    The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through end-March 2007. The figures for 2007 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; since they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

    Assumptions

    Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the period January 26 to February 23, 2007. For 2007 and 2008, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.495 and 1.500, U.S. dollar/euro conversion rate of 1.30 and 1.31, and yen/U.S. dollar conversion rates of 120.4 and 119.2, respectively.

    It is assumed that the price of oil will average $60.75 a barrel in 2007 and $64.75 a barrel in 2008.

    Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected advanced economies are described in Box A1.

    With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 5.3 percent in 2007 and 5.1 percent in 2008, that three-month euro deposits will average 3.8 percent in 2007 and 3.7 percent in 2008, and that six-month Japanese yen deposits will average 0.9 percent in 2007 and 1.2 percent in 2008.

    With respect to introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998, the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member states adopting the euro are as follows.

    1 euro = 13.7603Austrian schillings
    = 40.3399Belgian francs
    = 1.95583Deutsche mark
    = 5.94573Finnish markkaa
    = 6.55957French francs
    = 340.750Greek drachma1
    = 0.787564Irish pound
    = 1,936.27Italian lire
    = 40.3399Luxembourg francs
    = 2.20371Netherlands guilders
    = 200.482Portuguese escudos
    = 239.640Slovenia tolars2
    = 166.386Spanish pesetas

    See Box 5.4 in the October 1998 World Economic Outlook for details on how the conversion rates were established.

    What’s New

    On January 1, 2007, Slovenia became the thirteenth country to join the euro area and is now included in the advanced economy group; also on January 1, 2007, Bulgaria and Romania became members of the European Union, enlarging the group to a total of 27 countries; the Netherlands Antilles has been excluded from the World Economic Outlook database following the decision by its five constituent islands to abandon the federation and will cease to exist in July 2007; the country composition of the fuel-exporting group has been revised to reflect the periodic update of the classification criteria; and the purchasing power parity (PPP) weights have been updated to reflect the most up-to-date PPP conversion factor provided by the World Bank.

    Box A1.Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies

    The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the World Economic Outlook are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. In cases where the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless otherwise indicated. Specific assumptions used in some of the advanced economies follow (see also Tables 1214 in the Statistical Appendix for data on fiscal and structural balances).1

    United States. The fiscal projections are based on the Administration’s FY2008 budget proposal submitted to Congress on February 5, 2007. Adjustments are made to account for differences in macroeconomic projections as well as staff assumptions about (1) additional defense spending based on analysis by the Congressional Budget Office; (2) slower compression in the growth rate of discretionary spending; and (3) continued AMT relief beyond FY2008. The projections also assume that personal retirement accounts are not introduced.

    Japan. The medium-term fiscal projections assume that expenditure and revenue of the general government (excluding social security) are adjusted in line with the current government target to achieve primary fiscal balance by the early 2010s.

    Germany. The projections reflect the measures announced in the government’s coalition agreement. These aim to reduce the overall fiscal balance to below 1.5 percent of GDP in 2007. Projections include a loss in revenue due to corporate tax reform, and no change in the path of health expenditures, since the health care reform discussions have been postponed for 2007.

    France. The estimates for 2006 are based on latest official estimates and the projections for 2007 on the initial budget law. Medium-term projections incorporate the authorities’ tax revenue projections as outlined in the 2008–10 Stability Program Update, but assume different spending (less deceleration) and nontax revenue profiles, consistent with an unchanged policy assumption. For 2011–12, the IMF staff assumes unchanged tax policies and real expenditure growth as in the 2010 projection. All fiscal projections are adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions.

    Italy. Fiscal projections for 2007 are based on the IMF staff’s estimate of the impact of the budget measures, adjusted for the better-than-expected 2006 fiscal outcome. From 2008, a constant primary structural balance net of one-off measures is assumed.

    United Kingdom. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the 2006 Pre-Budget Report. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from the Office for National Statistics, including provisional budgetary outturns through the third quarter of 2006.

    Canada. Projections are based on the 2006 Budget and IMF staff estimates, and incorporate the most recent data releases from Statistics Canada, including provincial and territorial budgetary outturns through the third quarter of 2006.

    Australia. The fiscal projections through 2009/10 are based on the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in December 2006. For the remainder of the projection period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.

    Austria. Fiscal figures for 2006 are based on the authorities’ estimated outturn. Projections for 2007 and beyond are IMF staff projections based on current policies in place.

    Belgium. The projections for 2007 are based on the information provided in the 2007 Budget Report and adjusted for IMF staff’s macroeco-nomic assumptions. For 2007, in particular, the IMF staff’s fiscal projections exclude one-off measures not explicitly outlined in the budget (representing 0.3 percent of GDP). For the remainder of the projection period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.

    Denmark. For 2007–11, the projections incorporate the June 2006 welfare agreement as well as key features of the prior medium-term fiscal plan, and are adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. The projections imply continued budget surpluses in line with the authorities’ objectives of long-term fiscal sustainability and debt reduction.

    Greece. Projections are based on the 2007 budget, adjusted for IMF staff’s assumptions for economic growth. For 2008 and beyond, tax revenues as a percent of GDP are assumed to be constant, while social insurance contributions are assumed to continue their trend increase and EU transfers are assumed to decline. Total expenditure is assumed to remain broadly constant as a percent of GDP.

    Hong Kong SAR. Fiscal projections for 2007–10 are consistent with the authorities’ medium-term strategy as outlined in the 2007/08 budget, with projections for 2011–12 based on the assumptions underlying the IMF staff’s medium-term macroeco-nomic scenario.

    Korea. Projections for 2007 are based on the authorities’ budget, with some adjustment for the IMF staff’s assumptions. For 2008–12, projections are in line with the authorities’ budget plans.

    Netherlands. The fiscal projections build on the 2006 and 2007 budgets, the latest Stability Program, and other forecasts provided by the authorities, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions.

    New Zealand. The fiscal projections through 2010/11 are based on the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) of December 2006. For the remainder of the projection period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.

    Portugal. Fiscal projections for 2007 build on the authorities’ budget. Projections for 2008 and beyond are based on the current Stability and Growth Program of the authorities.

    Singapore. For the 2006/07 fiscal year, budget projections on the expenditure side are mostly based on the authorities’ budget and fiscal projections, while revenues grow in line with economic activity. Thereafter, the projections assume a constant budget balance (in percent of GDP).

    Spain. Fiscal projections through 2009 are based on the 2007 budget, policies outlined in the authorities’ updated Stability Program 2006–09, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions, information from recent statistical releases, and official announcements. In subsequent years, the fiscal projections assume unchanged policies.

    Sweden. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the budget presented on October 16, 2006. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from Statistics Sweden, including provisional budgetary outturns through December 2006.

    Switzerland. Projections for 2007–12 are based on IMF staff calculations, which incorporate measures to restore balance in the Federal accounts and strengthen social security finances.

    Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: official interest rates will therefore increase when economic indicators suggest that prospective inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range, and they will decrease when indicators suggest that prospective inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that prospective output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant. On this basis, the LIBOR on six-month U.S. dollar deposits is assumed to average 5.3 percent in 2007 and 5.1 percent in 2008. The projected path for U.S. dollar short-term interest rates reflects the assumption implicit in prevailing forward rates. The rate on three-month euro deposits is assumed to average 3.8 percent in 2007 and 3.7 percent in 2008. The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.9 percent in 2007 and 1.2 percent in 2008. Changes in interest rate assumptions compared with the September 2006 World Economic Outlook are summarized in Table 1.1.

    1 The output gap is actual less potential output, as a percent of potential output. Structural balances are expressed as a percent of potential output. The structural budget balance is the budgetary position that would be observed if the level of actual output coincided with potential output. Changes in the structural budget balance consequently include effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other noncyclical fluctuations in the budget balance. The computations of structural budget balances are based on IMF staff estimates of potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities (see the October 1993 World Economic Outlook, Annex I). Net debt is defined as gross debt less financial assets of the general government, which include assets held by the social security insurance system. Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.

    Data and Conventions

    Data and projections for 182 countries form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook (the World Economic Outlook database). The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and area departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

    Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the national compilation of statistics, including the analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The World Economic Outlook database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

    The comprehensive revision of the standardized System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA), the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual, Fifth Edition (BPM5), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM), and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001) represented important improvements in the standards of economic statistics and analysis.3 The IMF was actively involved in all these projects, particularly the Balance of Payments, Monetary and Financial Statistics, and Government Finance Statistics manuals, which reflects the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions, financial sector stability, and public sector fiscal positions. The process of adapting country data to the new definitions began in earnest when the manuals were released. However, full concordance with the manuals is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, and hence the World Economic Outlook estimates are still only partially adapted to these manuals.

    In line with recent improvements in standards of reporting economic statistics, several countries have phased out their traditional fixed-base-year method of calculating real macroeconomic variables levels and growth by switching to a chain-weighted method of computing aggregate growth. Recent dramatic changes in the structure of these economies have obliged these countries to revise the way in which they measure real GDP levels and growth. Switching to the chain-weighted method of computing aggregate growth, which uses current price information, allows countries to measure GDP growth more accurately by eliminating upward biases in new data.4 Currently, real macroeconomic data for Albania, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Canada, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, euro area, Finland, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States are based on chain-weighted methodology. However, data before 1996 (Albania), 1994 (Azerbaijan), 1995 (Belgium), 1995 (Cyprus), 1995 (Czech Republic), 1995 (euro area), 1991 (Germany), 2000 (Greece), 1990 (Iceland), 1995 (Ireland), 1994 (Japan), 1995 (Kazakhstan), 1995 (Luxembourg), 2000 (Malta), 1995 (Poland), 1995 (Russia), 1995 (Slovenia), and 1995 (Spain) are based on unrevised national accounts and subject to revision in the future.

    The members of the European Union have adopted a harmonized system for the compilation of the national accounts, referred to as ESA 1995. All national accounts data from 1995 onward are presented on the basis of the new system. Revision by national authorities of data prior to 1995 to conform to the new system has progressed, but has in some cases not been completed. In such cases, historical World Economic Outlook data have been carefully adjusted to avoid breaks in the series. Users of EU national accounts data prior to 1995 should nevertheless exercise caution until such time as the revision of historical data by national statistical agencies has been fully completed. See Box 1.2, “Revisions in National Accounts Methodologies,” in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook.

    Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.5 Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the other emerging market and developing country group, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply.

    • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and the growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.

    • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities (PPPs) as a share of total world or group GDP.6

    • Composites for data relating to the domestic economy for the euro area (13 member countries throughout the entire period unless otherwise noted) are aggregates of national source data using weights based on 1995 ECU exchange rates.

    • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

    • Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

    For central and eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies (through 1990) are converted to U.S. dollars at the implicit U.S. dollar/ruble conversion rates obtained from each country’s national currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and for the ruble.

    All data refer to calendar years, except for the following countries, which refer to fiscal years: Australia (July/June), Bangladesh (July/June), Egypt (July/June), Islamic Republic of Iran (March/February), Mauritius (July/June), Myanmar (April/March), Nepal (July/June), New Zealand (July/June), Pakistan (July/June), Samoa (July/June), and Tonga (July/June).

    Classification of Countries

    Summary of the Country Classification

    The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies, and other emerging market and developing countries.7 Rather than being based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, this classification has evolved over time with the objective of facilitating analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful organization of data. Table A provides an overview of these standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average 2006 shares of groups in aggregate PPP-valued GDP, total exports of goods and services, and population.

    Table A.Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20061(Percent of total for group or world)
    Number of CountriesGDPExports of Goods and ServicesPopulation
    Advanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorld
    Advanced economies30100.052.0100.067.3100.015.3
    United States37.819.714.59.830.64.7
    Euro area1328.214.743.129.032.35.0
    Germany7.43.913.28.98.41.3
    France5.62.96.44.36.41.0
    Italy5.22.75.23.56.00.9
    Spain3.51.83.22.24.50.7
    Japan12.16.37.45.013.02.0
    United Kingdom6.23.26.84.66.20.9
    Canada3.41.74.73.13.30.5
    Other advanced economies1312.46.423.515.814.52.2
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies777.640.458.339.274.011.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies46.53.413.79.28.41.3
    Other emerging market and developing countriesWorldOther emerging market and developing countriesWorldOther emerging market and developing countriesWorld
    Other emerging market and developing countries143100.048.0100.032.7100.084.7
    Regional groups
    Africa487.03.47.72.515.312.9
    Sub-Sahara455.42.65.81.913.911.8
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa432.91.42.80.910.28.7
    Central and eastern Europe147.13.413.24.33.42.9
    Commonwealth of Independent States2138.03.810.13.35.24.4
    Russia5.42.66.92.32.62.2
    Developing Asia2356.327.038.612.661.752.3
    China31.415.121.97.224.320.5
    India13.16.34.11.320.617.4
    Excluding China and India2111.75.612.64.116.914.3
    Middle East135.92.814.54.74.43.7
    Western Hemisphere3215.77.615.95.210.18.5
    Brazil5.42.63.31.13.42.9
    Mexico3.71.85.51.81.91.6
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel2313.36.426.58.711.09.3
    Nonfuel12086.741.673.524.089.075.3
    of which, primary products211.70.82.30.74.13.5
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries12154.126.048.515.964.654.7
    of which, official financing346.12.93.81.213.811.7
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 2001–055110.24.97.62.519.016.1
    Other net debtor countries7043.921.140.913.445.638.6
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries302.01.01.20.48.37.0
    Middle East and North Africa197.83.816.65.46.55.5

    The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs. The number of countries comprising each group reflects those for which data are included in the group aggregates.

    Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been fully developed. Because of data limitations, group composites do not reflect the following countries: the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brunei Darussalam, Eritrea, Iraq, Liberia, Serbia, Somalia, and Timor-Leste. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, whereas San Marino, among the advanced economies, and Aruba, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, and Republic of Montenegro, among the developing countries, are examples of economies for which databases have not been completed.

    General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

    Advanced Economies

    The 30 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The seven largest in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. The 13 members of the euro area and the four newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables for the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

    Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup
    Other Subgroups
    Major Currency AreasEuro areaNewly industrialized
    Asian economies
    Major advanced
    economies
    Other advanced economies
    United StatesAustriaIrelandHong Kong SAR1CanadaAustraliaKorea
    Euro areaBelgiumItalyKoreaFranceCyprusNew Zealand
    JapanFinlandLuxembourgSingaporeGermanyDenmarkNorway
    FranceNetherlandsTaiwan Province of ChinaItalyHong Kong SAR1Singapore
    GermanyPortugalJapanIcelandSweden
    GreeceSloveniaUnited KingdomIsraelSwitzerland
    SpainUnited StatesTaiwan Province of China

    On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

    In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the eastern Länder (i.e., the former German Democratic Republic). Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. Hence, in tables featuring data expressed as annual percent change, these apply to west Germany in years up to and including 1991, but to unified Germany from 1992 onward. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

    Table C lists the member countries of the European Union, not all of which are classified as advanced economies in the World Economic Outlook.

    Table C.European Union
    AustriaFinlandLatviaRomania
    BelgiumFranceLithuaniaSlovak Republic
    BulgariaGermanyLuxembourgSlovenia
    CyprusGreeceMaltaSpain
    Czech RepublicHungaryNetherlandsSweden
    DenmarkIrelandPolandUnited Kingdom
    EstoniaItalyPortugal

    Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries

    The group of other emerging market and developing countries (143 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as advanced economies.

    The regional breakdowns of other emerging market and developing countries—Africa, central and eastern Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States, developing Asia, Middle East, and Western Hemisphere—largely conform to the regional breakdowns in the IMF’s International Financial Statistics. In both classifications, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in the Middle East region rather than in Africa. In addition, the World Economic Outlook sometimes refers to the regional group of Middle East and North Africa countries, also referred to as the MENA countries, whose composition straddles the Africa and Middle East regions. This group is defined as the Arab League countries plus the Islamic Republic of Iran (see Table D).

    Table D.Middle East and North Africa Countries
    AlgeriaJordanMoroccoSyrian Arab Republic
    BahrainKuwaitOmanTunisia
    DjiboutiLebanonQatarUnited Arab Emirates
    EgyptLibyaSaudi ArabiaYemen, Rep. of
    Iran, I.R. ofMauritaniaSudan

    Other emerging market and developing countries are also classified according to analytical criteria. The analytical criteria reflect countries’ composition of export earnings and other income from abroad, exchange rate arrangements, a distinction between net creditor and net debtor countries, and, for the net debtor countries, financial criteria based on external financing source and experience with external debt servicing. The detailed composition of other emerging market and developing countries in the regional and analytical groups is shown in Tables E and F.

    Table E.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
    FuelNonfuel, of Which
    Primary Products
    AfricaAlgeriaBotswana
    AngolaBurkina Faso
    Congo, Rep. ofBurundi
    Equatorial GuineaChad
    GabonCongo, Dem. Rep. of
    NigeriaGuinea
    SudanGuinea-Bissau
    Malawi
    Mauritania
    Namibia
    Niger
    Sierra Leone
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe
    Commonwealth of Independent StatesAzerbaijanMongolia
    RussiaTajikistan
    TurkmenistanUzbekistan
    Developing AsiaPapua New Guinea
    Solomon Islands
    Middle EastBahrain
    Iran, I.R. of
    Kuwait
    Libya
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Syrian Arab Republic
    United Arab Emirates
    Yemen, Rep. of
    Western HemisphereEcuadorChile
    Trinidad and TobagoSuriname
    Venezuela
    Table F.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries by Region, Net External Position, and Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
    Net External PositionHeavily
    Indebted
    Poor
    Countries
    Net creditorNet debtor1
    Africa
    Maghreb
    Algeria*
    Morocco*
    Tunisia*
    Sub-Sahara
    South Africa*
    Horn of Africa
    Djibouti*
    Ethiopia*
    Sudan*
    Great Lakes
    Burundi*
    Congo, Dem. Rep. of**
    Kenya*
    Rwanda*
    Tanzania*
    Uganda**
    Southern Africa
    Angola*
    Botswana*
    Comoros
    Lesotho*
    Madagascar*
    Malawi*
    Mauritius*
    Mozambique, Rep. of**
    Namibia*
    Seychelles*
    Swaziland*
    Zambia**
    Zimbabwe*
    West and Central Africa
    Cape Verde*
    Gambia, The**
    Ghana*
    Guinea**
    Mauritania**
    Nigeria*
    São Tomé and Príncipe**
    Sierra Leone*
    CFA franc zone
    Benin**
    Burkina Faso*
    Cameroon**
    Central African Republic
    Chad**
    Congo, Rep. of*
    Côte d’Ivoire*
    Equatorial Guinea*
    Gabon
    Guinea-Bissau**
    Mali**
    Niger*
    Senegal**
    Togo
    Central and eastern Europe
    Albania*
    Bulgaria*
    Croatia*
    Czech Republic*
    Estonia*
    Hungary*
    Latvia*
    Lithuania*
    Macedonia, FYR*
    Malta*
    Poland*
    Romania*
    Slovak Republic*
    Turkey*
    Commonwealth of Independent States2
    Armenia*
    Azerbaijan*
    Belarus*
    Georgia*
    Kazakhstan*
    Kyrgyz Republic*
    Moldova*
    Mongolia
    Russia*
    Tajikistan
    Turkmenistan*
    Ukraine*
    Uzbekistan*
    Developing Asia
    Bhutan
    Cambodia
    China*
    Fiji*
    Indonesia*
    Kiribati*
    Lao PDR*
    Malaysia*
    Myanmar*
    Papua New Guinea*
    Philippines*
    Samoa*
    Solomon Islands
    Thailand*
    Tonga
    Vanuatu*
    Vietnam
    South Asia
    Bangladesh
    India*
    Maldives*
    Nepal
    Pakistan
    Sri Lanka
    Middle East
    Bahrain*
    Iran, I.R. of*
    Kuwait*
    Libya*
    Oman*
    Qatar*
    Saudi Arabia*
    United Arab Emirates*
    Yemen, Rep. of*
    Mashreq
    Egypt*
    Jordan*
    Lebanon*
    Syrian Arab Republic*
    Western Hemisphere
    Mexico*
    South America
    Argentina*
    Brazil*
    Bolivia*
    Chile*
    Colombia*
    Ecuador*
    Paraguay
    Peru
    Uruguay
    Venezuela*
    Central America
    Costa Rica*
    El Salvador
    Guatemala*
    Honduras**
    Nicaragua**
    Panama*
    The Caribbean
    Antigua and Barbuda*
    Bahamas, The*
    Barbados*
    Belize*
    Dominica*
    Dominican Republic
    Grenada
    Guyana**
    Haiti**
    Jamaica*
    St. Kitts and Nevis*
    St. Lucia*
    St. Vincent and the
    Grenadines
    Suriname*
    Trinidad and Tobago*

    Dot instead of star indicates that the net debtor’s main external finance source is official financing.

    Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    The analytical criterion, by source of export earnings, distinguishes between categories: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68).

    The financial criteria focus on net creditor, net debtor countries, and heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs). Net debtor countries are further differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by official external financing and by experience with debt servicing.8 The HIPC group comprises the countries considered by the IMF and the World Bank for their debt initiative, known as the HIPC Initiative, with the aim of reducing the external debt burdens of all the eligible HIPCs to a “sustainable” level in a reasonably short period of time.9

    List of Tables

    Output

    Inflation

    Financial Policies

    Foreign Trade

    Current Account Transactions

    Balance of Payments and External Financing

    External Debt and Debt Service

    Flow of Funds

    Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

    Output

    Table 1.Summary of World Output1(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1989–981999–20081999200020012002200320042005200620072008
    World3.24.43.74.82.53.14.05.34.95.44.94.9
    Advanced economies2.72.63.54.01.21.61.93.32.53.12.52.7
    United States3.02.84.43.70.81.62.53.93.23.32.22.8
    Euro area2.13.03.91.90.90.82.01.42.62.32.3
    Japan2.01.6-0.12.90.20.31.42.71.92.22.31.9
    Other advanced economies23.23.54.75.31.73.22.44.13.23.63.33.4
    Other emerging market and developing countries3.86.44.16.04.35.06.77.77.57.97.57.1
    Regional groups
    Africa2.24.72.73.14.43.74.75.85.65.56.25.8
    Central and eastern Europe1.14.40.54.90.24.54.86.65.56.05.55.3
    Commonwealth of Independent States37.05.29.06.35.37.98.46.67.77.06.4
    Developing Asia7.37.96.47.06.07.08.48.79.29.48.88.4
    Middle East4.54.81.85.43.03.96.55.65.45.75.55.5
    Western Hemisphere3.13.20.33.90.50.32.46.04.65.54.94.2
    Memorandum
    European Union2.02.53.03.92.11.41.52.61.93.22.82.7
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel-0.35.93.07.14.44.06.97.36.76.76.96.0
    Nonfuel4.66.44.25.84.35.26.77.87.68.17.67.2
    of which, primary products2.53.70.61.52.92.83.66.15.24.34.85.3
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries3.45.02.84.62.53.34.96.46.36.76.36.0
    of which, official financing4.15.43.94.63.43.94.76.57.17.06.46.3
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 2001–053.44.71.13.32.61.65.26.97.26.56.86.1
    Memorandum
    Median growth rate
    Advanced economies3.02.94.04.11.91.71.83.72.93.32.92.7
    Other emerging market and developing countries3.34.63.44.23.63.74.45.45.55.55.55.0
    Output per capita
    Advanced economies2.02.12.93.40.61.01.32.72.02.52.02.2
    Other emerging market and developing countries2.25.12.64.62.93.75.46.46.26.66.25.8
    World growth based on market exchange rates2.53.13.14.11.51.82.64.03.33.93.43.5
    Value of world output in billions of U.S. dollars
    At market exchange rates26,23840,43330,90831,75931,54232,81336,85341,43244,68848,14451,51154,678
    At purchasing power parities32,23256,69742,03945,01047,22749,47452,51056,78261,25966,22970,80775,632

    Real GDP.

    In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

    Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Table 2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1989–981999–20081999200020012002200320042005200620072008200620072008
    Real GDP
    Advanced economies2.72.63.54.01.21.61.93.32.53.12.52.7
    United States3.02.84.43.70.81.62.53.93.23.32.22.83.12.32.9
    Euro area2.13.03.91.90.90.82.01.42.62.32.33.31.92.5
    Germany2.51.51.93.11.2-0.21.20.92.71.81.93.71.01.9
    France1.82.13.04.01.81.11.12.01.22.02.02.42.22.12.6
    Italy1.61.41.93.61.80.31.20.11.91.81.72.81.02.4
    Spain2.83.74.75.03.62.73.03.23.53.93.63.44.03.53.4
    Netherlands3.02.34.73.91.90.10.32.01.52.92.92.72.92.62.5
    Belgium2.32.23.33.90.71.41.02.71.53.02.22.02.92.02.0
    Austria2.72.23.33.40.80.91.12.42.03.22.82.43.62.32.6
    Finland1.63.33.95.02.61.61.83.72.95.53.12.75.33.41.4
    Greece1.94.13.44.54.53.94.94.73.74.23.83.54.33.73.5
    Portugal3.61.73.93.92.00.8-0.71.30.51.31.82.11.71.92.2
    Ireland6.46.110.79.45.86.04.34.35.56.05.03.75.64.15.4
    Luxembourg4.94.68.48.42.53.81.33.64.05.84.64.1
    Slovenia4.05.44.12.73.52.74.44.05.24.54.05.54.13.5
    Japan2.01.6-0.12.90.20.31.42.71.92.22.31.92.51.91.9
    United Kingdom2.02.73.03.82.42.12.73.31.92.72.92.73.02.82.7
    Canada2.13.25.55.21.82.91.83.32.92.72.42.92.32.83.0
    Korea5.95.49.58.53.87.03.14.74.25.04.44.44.04.74.3
    Australia3.33.24.43.42.14.13.13.72.82.72.63.32.82.63.4
    Taiwan Province of China6.84.05.75.8-2.24.23.46.14.04.64.24.34.03.54.9
    Sweden1.43.14.54.31.12.01.74.12.94.43.32.54.24.01.8
    Switzerland1.41.71.33.61.00.3-0.22.31.92.72.01.82.22.01.6
    Hong Kong SAR3.85.34.010.00.61.83.28.67.56.85.55.06.94.65.3
    Denmark2.22.12.63.50.70.50.42.13.13.32.52.23.32.91.9
    Norway3.52.62.03.32.01.51.03.92.72.93.82.83.04.31.9
    Israel5.13.52.98.7-0.6-0.91.54.85.25.14.84.23.77.82.3
    Singapore7.85.67.210.1-2.44.23.18.86.67.95.55.76.66.04.7
    New Zealand2.13.24.33.62.64.63.24.42.11.52.52.62.02.92.6
    Cyprus4.73.74.85.04.02.01.84.23.93.83.94.0
    Iceland1.83.44.04.43.6-0.32.77.77.52.91.9
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.52.33.13.61.01.21.83.12.32.82.22.52.92.12.6
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.15.07.57.91.25.43.25.84.75.34.64.64.54.44.6
    Real total domestic demand
    Advanced economies2.72.74.14.01.11.72.13.32.62.82.32.6
    United States3.13.15.34.40.92.22.84.43.33.11.72.72.52.12.9
    Euro area2.03.63.41.20.41.51.91.62.32.22.32.32.32.5
    Germany2.30.82.72.2-0.5-2.00.60.51.61.31.80.62.71.5
    France1.52.53.54.51.71.21.92.82.12.32.32.72.12.42.7
    Italy1.41.63.22.81.61.30.91.10.31.61.71.72.91.21.9
    Spain2.74.56.56.03.73.23.84.85.04.64.03.74.74.03.7
    Japan2.01.32.41.0-0.40.81.91.71.42.11.92.01.91.9
    United Kingdom2.03.14.23.92.93.22.73.81.92.93.22.83.23.32.6
    Canada1.63.74.24.71.23.34.74.34.84.12.73.23.23.53.0
    Other advanced economies4.23.45.55.40.43.61.34.43.33.63.53.6
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.42.53.83.71.11.32.23.22.42.61.92.42.32.22.5
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.23.88.07.64.24.42.73.53.74.44.13.25.5

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Table 3.Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1989–981999–20081999200020012002200320042005200620072008
    Private consumer expenditure
    Advanced economies2.72.74.13.82.32.21.82.82.62.52.52.5
    United States3.03.45.14.72.52.72.83.93.53.22.92.7
    Euro area1.93.43.12.00.81.21.51.51.91.72.0
    Germany2.50.93.02.41.9-0.8-0.10.10.10.80.41.3
    France1.42.63.33.52.52.42.22.52.12.62.22.6
    Italy1.81.22.52.40.70.21.00.70.61.51.51.5
    Spain2.43.85.35.13.52.82.84.24.23.73.33.2
    Japan2.31.21.00.71.61.10.41.61.60.91.61.9
    United Kingdom2.23.14.54.63.03.52.93.41.42.12.82.6
    Canada2.13.43.84.02.33.63.03.33.94.13.32.8
    Other advanced economies4.23.55.95.62.63.71.03.33.23.33.33.4
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.62.63.83.52.22.02.02.82.42.42.32.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.13.98.27.33.25.0-0.42.23.33.43.33.9
    Public consumption
    Advanced economies1.82.32.82.52.83.32.42.01.51.91.91.9
    United States1.02.33.11.73.14.32.52.10.91.62.21.9
    Euro area1.81.92.32.02.41.81.41.42.11.41.6
    Germany1.80.81.21.40.51.50.4-1.30.61.80.51.1
    France1.71.71.42.01.11.92.02.21.11.92.02.1
    Italy1.51.32.33.62.12.01.61.5-0.30.30.3
    Spain3.74.64.05.33.94.54.86.34.84.44.03.8
    Japan2.82.24.24.33.02.42.31.91.70.31.21.0
    United Kingdom1.02.93.73.12.43.53.53.23.11.92.32.5
    Canada0.92.82.13.13.92.53.53.02.73.41.52.5
    Other advanced economies4.02.51.92.13.13.62.21.72.43.12.52.4
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies1.42.12.82.32.73.22.31.91.31.41.71.7
    Newly industrialized Asian economies5.92.80.82.43.54.42.51.82.93.73.22.7
    Gross fixed capital formation
    Advanced economies3.42.85.65.1-0.8-1.62.04.54.44.12.03.3
    United States4.62.88.26.1-1.7-3.53.26.16.43.1-2.13.0
    Euro area2.86.35.00.5-1.51.12.22.54.54.13.6
    Germany2.91.14.73.0-3.7-6.1-0.8-0.40.85.64.74.1
    France1.33.47.97.52.3-1.72.32.63.73.53.03.2
    Italy1.12.33.66.42.54.0-1.71.6-0.52.32.42.2
    Spain3.46.010.46.64.83.45.95.07.06.35.64.8
    Japan0.90.8-0.81.2-0.9-4.9-0.51.42.43.54.12.7
    United Kingdom2.63.82.82.72.53.70.46.03.46.07.03.6
    Canada1.75.37.34.74.01.66.58.07.16.73.63.7
    Other advanced economies5.63.62.97.1-4.63.62.47.14.54.94.74.1
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies3.12.55.64.8-0.6-2.51.74.34.43.81.23.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies8.23.42.910.9-6.22.11.77.52.13.45.35.5
    Final domestic demand
    Advanced economies2.52.64.13.71.81.52.13.02.72.72.22.5
    United States3.03.15.44.51.81.82.84.03.62.91.92.7
    Euro area2.13.73.31.70.61.31.61.62.62.32.3
    Germany2.40.93.02.30.4-1.5-0.1-0.30.31.91.31.8
    France1.52.53.73.92.11.52.22.42.22.62.32.6
    Italy1.31.52.53.11.61.30.61.10.51.31.41.4
    Spain3.24.76.46.84.13.03.84.74.34.94.54.2
    Japan2.01.31.11.41.2-0.20.51.61.81.52.11.9
    United Kingdom2.03.24.14.02.83.52.63.72.02.73.42.8
    Canada1.83.74.24.02.93.03.84.24.34.53.03.0
    Other advanced economies4.43.34.35.40.93.61.53.83.33.63.53.4
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.42.54.03.61.71.32.02.92.62.52.02.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.63.65.57.60.74.10.73.32.93.53.94.2
    Stock building1
    Advanced economies-0.20.1-0.60.10.2-0.10.1-0.1
    United States0.1-0.1-0.90.40.4-0.30.2-0.2
    Euro area-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.30.20.20.1-0.3-0.1
    Germany-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.9-0.60.80.30.2-0.2-0.1
    France-0.1-0.20.6-0.4-0.3-0.20.3-0.3
    Italy0.10.1-0.20.10.1-0.1-0.21.20.20.3
    Spain-0.10.2-0.1-0.1-0.10.1
    Japan-1.01.0-0.2-0.30.20.3-0.10.1
    United Kingdom0.2-0.10.1-0.30.20.1-0.10.2-0.2
    Canada0.10.8-1.70.30.80.10.3-0.2-0.20.2
    Other advanced economies-0.10.10.9-0.4-0.20.4-0.10.1
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies-0.20.2-0.60.10.20.3-0.20.2-0.1
    Newly industrialized Asian economies-0.30.22.1-0.1-0.70.1-0.60.9-0.20.1-0.10.2
    Foreign balance1
    Advanced economies0.1-0.2-0.6-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.3-0.30.10.2
    United States-0.1-0.4-1.0-0.9-0.2-0.7-0.4-0.7-0.30.4
    Euro area0.1-0.50.50.70.5-0.70.2-0.20.40.1
    Germany0.20.7-0.81.01.72.0-0.91.20.41.10.60.2
    France0.3-0.4-0.4-0.40.2-0.1-0.8-0.7-0.9-0.4-0.3-0.3
    Italy0.2-0.2-1.20.80.2-1.0-0.80.1-0.30.20.20.1
    Spain-0.2-0.9-1.7-0.4-0.2-0.6-0.8-1.7-1.7-1.0-0.8-0.6
    Japan0.10.3-0.10.5-0.80.70.70.80.30.80.2
    United Kingdom0.1-0.4-1.0-0.1-0.5-1.1-0.1-0.6-0.4-0.3-0.2
    Canada0.3-0.41.40.60.7-0.1-2.6-0.8-1.6-1.3-0.3-0.2
    Other advanced economies0.10.80.40.80.80.31.30.90.91.10.50.6
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies-0.2-0.7-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.2-0.20.10.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies-0.21.50.30.51.11.23.12.22.32.31.20.8

    Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

    Table 4.Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real Per Capita GDP(Percent)
    Ten-Year Averages1
    1989–981999–20081999200020012002200320042005200620072008
    Unemployment rate
    Advanced economies6.75.96.35.75.86.36.56.36.05.55.45.4
    United States25.95.04.24.04.75.86.05.55.14.64.85.0
    Euro area8.19.08.17.88.28.78.88.67.77.37.1
    Germany7.07.97.56.96.97.78.89.29.18.17.87.6
    France10.69.010.59.18.48.79.49.69.79.08.37.8
    Italy10.18.310.910.19.18.68.48.07.76.86.86.8
    Spain19.910.715.613.910.611.511.511.09.28.57.87.7
    Netherlands5.73.43.22.92.22.83.74.64.73.93.23.1
    Belgium8.47.88.56.96.67.58.28.48.48.37.87.6
    Austria3.64.33.93.63.64.24.34.85.24.84.54.3
    Finland11.28.710.29.89.19.19.08.88.47.77.57.4
    Greece9.010.012.111.410.810.39.710.59.98.98.38.5
    Portugal5.66.04.43.94.05.06.36.77.67.77.47.3
    Ireland13.04.55.64.33.94.44.64.44.44.44.54.7
    Luxembourg2.33.62.92.52.32.63.53.94.24.44.64.8
    Slovenia6.67.67.06.46.46.76.36.56.46.46.4
    Japan2.84.64.74.75.05.45.34.74.44.14.04.0
    United Kingdom8.35.26.05.55.15.25.04.84.85.45.35.1
    Canada9.66.97.66.87.27.67.67.26.86.36.26.2
    Korea2.93.96.64.44.03.33.63.73.73.53.33.1
    Australia8.55.76.96.36.86.46.15.55.14.94.64.6
    Taiwan Province of China1.94.12.93.04.65.25.04.44.13.93.83.7
    Sweden5.85.05.64.74.04.04.95.55.84.85.55.0
    Switzerland2.82.72.41.71.62.33.43.53.43.42.92.8
    Hong Kong SAR2.35.76.35.14.97.27.96.95.74.84.44.2
    Denmark9.95.45.75.45.25.26.26.45.74.54.74.9
    Norway5.13.73.23.43.53.94.54.54.63.42.93.0
    Israel8.89.08.88.89.410.310.810.39.08.47.57.2
    Singapore1.83.02.82.72.73.64.03.43.12.72.62.6
    New Zealand8.04.86.86.05.35.24.63.93.73.84.24.4
    Cyprus2.74.23.63.43.03.34.14.75.34.94.84.7
    Iceland3.32.11.91.31.42.53.43.12.11.32.02.3
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies6.45.95.95.55.86.46.66.36.05.65.55.5
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.54.15.44.04.24.24.44.24.03.73.53.3
    Growth in employment
    Advanced economies1.01.01.32.00.60.30.50.91.21.51.00.9
    United States1.41.21.52.5-0.30.91.11.81.91.21.0
    Euro area1.22.02.31.40.90.70.70.81.41.10.8
    Germany0.40.41.31.80.4-0.6-0.90.4-0.20.80.60.3
    France0.41.02.02.71.80.60.10.50.80.60.5
    Italy-0.21.31.11.82.01.40.91.30.81.80.80.7
    Spain1.93.24.65.03.22.32.42.63.13.12.72.4
    Japan0.8-0.2-0.8-0.2-0.5-1.3-0.20.20.40.40.1
    United Kingdom0.30.91.41.20.80.81.01.00.90.80.70.6
    Canada1.01.92.62.51.22.42.41.81.42.01.41.3
    Other advanced economies1.31.61.62.91.11.60.51.61.51.71.51.5
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies0.80.81.11.80.4-0.10.50.81.01.30.80.7
    Newly industrialized Asian economies1.71.61.53.60.82.00.31.91.21.51.71.6
    Growth in real per capita GDP
    Advanced economies2.02.12.93.40.61.01.32.72.02.52.02.2
    United States1.81.83.32.5-0.30.61.52.92.22.31.21.7
    Euro area1.82.83.51.50.40.21.30.92.21.81.9
    Germany1.81.41.83.01.0-0.1-0.21.30.92.92.02.0
    France1.41.52.53.41.10.40.51.40.61.41.51.9
    Italy1.51.11.83.31.50.11.1-1.01.51.61.5
    Spain2.52.33.84.33.11.41.21.61.92.11.91.8
    Japan1.71.4-0.32.7-0.10.11.22.71.92.22.31.9
    United Kingdom1.72.32.73.52.01.72.32.81.32.22.42.4
    Canada0.92.14.74.30.71.80.82.31.91.71.11.6
    Other advanced economies3.23.24.55.20.53.01.84.13.23.73.23.2
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies1.81.82.53.00.50.61.22.51.82.31.72.0
    Newly industrialized Asian economies4.94.46.67.00.54.72.65.34.24.84.14.1

    Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

    The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

    Table 5.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1989–981999–20081999200020012002200320042005200620072008
    Other emerging market and developing countries3.86.44.16.04.35.06.77.77.57.97.57.1
    Regional groups
    Africa2.24.72.73.14.43.74.75.85.65.56.25.8
    Sub-Sahara2.14.92.73.44.53.74.26.06.05.76.86.1
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa2.35.33.22.45.94.03.76.76.56.37.86.9
    Central and eastern Europe1.14.40.54.90.24.54.86.65.56.05.55.3
    Commonwealth of Independent States17.05.29.06.35.37.98.46.67.77.06.4
    Russia6.66.410.05.14.77.37.26.46.76.45.9
    Excluding Russia7.72.46.79.16.69.311.06.99.78.37.5
    Developing Asia7.37.96.47.06.07.08.48.79.29.48.88.4
    China9.69.47.68.48.39.110.010.110.410.710.09.5
    India5.77.06.75.34.14.37.37.89.29.28.47.8
    Excluding China and India5.15.43.75.83.14.85.86.46.25.96.06.0
    Middle East4.54.81.85.43.03.96.55.65.45.75.55.5
    Western Hemisphere3.13.20.33.90.50.32.46.04.65.54.94.2
    Brazil2.03.10.34.31.32.71.15.72.93.74.44.2
    Mexico3.43.13.86.60.81.44.22.84.83.43.5
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel-0.35.93.07.14.44.06.97.36.76.76.96.0
    Nonfuel4.66.44.25.84.35.26.77.87.68.17.67.2
    of which, primary products2.53.70.61.52.92.83.66.15.24.34.85.3
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries3.45.02.84.62.53.34.96.46.36.76.36.0
    of which, official financing4.15.43.94.63.43.94.76.57.17.06.46.3
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 2001–053.44.71.13.32.61.65.26.97.26.56.86.1
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries1.84.83.62.74.83.54.06.55.95.85.46.0
    Middle East and north Africa4.04.82.14.83.33.96.55.55.35.75.55.6
    Memorandum
    Real per capita GDP
    Other emerging market and developing countries2.25.12.64.62.93.75.46.46.26.66.25.8
    Africa-0.52.50.40.82.11.42.53.63.43.34.13.7
    Central and eastern Europe0.63.94.5-0.24.14.46.15.15.65.14.8
    Commonwealth of Independent States17.25.49.26.65.68.28.76.87.97.26.6
    Developing Asia5.86.75.05.74.85.77.27.68.08.27.77.3
    Middle East2.12.9-0.23.41.02.04.53.73.53.83.63.5
    Western Hemisphere1.31.8-1.32.4-1.0-1.20.94.63.24.13.52.9

    Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Table 6.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries—by Country: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1989–98
    1999200020012002200320042005200620072008
    Africa2.22.73.14.43.74.75.85.65.56.25.8
    Algeria1.73.22.22.64.76.95.25.32.74.54.1
    Angola0.33.23.03.114.53.311.220.615.335.316.0
    Benin4.15.34.96.24.53.93.12.94.14.75.2
    Botswana6.57.28.34.95.66.36.06.24.24.34.4
    Burkina Faso4.57.41.86.64.78.04.67.16.46.56.3
    Burundi-1.0-1.0-0.92.14.4-1.24.80.95.15.56.6
    Cameroon2-0.34.44.24.54.04.03.72.03.54.04.1
    Cape Verde5.511.97.36.15.34.74.45.85.86.57.0
    Central African Republic0.23.61.80.3-0.6-7.61.32.23.54.04.3
    Chad3.5-0.7-0.911.78.514.733.68.61.3-1.27.4
    Comoros0.91.91.43.34.12.5-0.24.21.23.04.5
    Congo, Dem. Rep. of-5.3-4.3-6.9-2.13.55.86.66.55.16.56.9
    Congo, Rep. of3.0-2.67.63.84.60.83.67.76.43.77.3
    Côte d’Ivoire3.81.8-4.6-1.6-1.71.61.51.41.73.3
    Djibouti-1.73.00.42.02.63.23.03.24.55.15.7
    Equatorial Guinea26.624.213.794.424.712.533.96.51.07.19.0
    Eritrea-13.19.20.63.92.04.82.01.31.3
    Ethiopia1.96.05.97.71.2-3.513.110.310.66.56.6
    Gabon4.8-8.9-1.92.1-0.32.41.13.01.04.72.2
    Gambia, The4.06.45.55.8-3.26.97.05.16.57.06.0
    Ghana4.34.43.74.24.55.25.65.96.26.36.9
    Guinea4.34.71.94.04.21.22.73.32.82.55.0
    Guinea-Bissau0.27.67.50.2-7.1-0.62.23.22.75.04.7
    Kenya2.32.40.64.70.32.84.55.86.06.25.8
    Lesotho4.6-0.60.72.02.83.03.83.75.65.15.2
    Liberia34.629.322.031.8-33.9-5.29.59.713.313.5
    Madagascar1.54.74.76.0-12.79.85.34.64.75.65.6
    Malawi3.73.50.8-4.12.13.95.12.18.55.75.5
    Mali5.93.0-3.212.14.37.22.46.14.65.95.7
    Mauritania2.26.71.92.91.15.65.25.411.71.95.0
    Mauritius5.94.67.24.21.53.84.73.03.74.14.4
    Morocco2.8-0.11.06.33.25.54.21.77.33.55.8
    Mozambique, Rep. of5.07.51.913.18.27.97.57.88.56.87.6
    Namibia3.73.43.52.46.73.56.64.24.64.84.6
    Niger1.9-0.6-1.47.13.04.5-0.76.83.44.14.3
    Nigeria3.41.55.43.11.510.76.07.25.38.26.7
    Rwanda-1.87.66.06.79.40.94.06.04.24.74.9
    São Tomé and Príncipe1.32.53.04.04.14.03.86.08.07.07.0
    Senegal2.56.33.24.60.76.75.65.53.35.65.6
    Seychelles5.71.94.3-2.31.2-5.9-2.91.24.55.04.0
    Sierra Leone-6.6-8.13.818.227.49.57.47.37.46.56.5
    South Africa1.42.44.22.73.73.14.85.15.04.74.5
    Sudan2.63.18.46.25.47.15.18.612.211.110.2
    Swaziland4.23.52.61.62.92.92.12.32.11.21.0
    Tanzania3.13.55.16.27.25.76.76.85.97.37.6
    Togo1.72.6-1.0-2.3-0.25.22.31.21.82.93.9
    Tunisia4.66.14.74.91.75.66.04.05.36.06.0
    Uganda6.18.35.34.86.94.45.76.75.46.26.5
    Zambia-1.22.23.64.93.35.15.45.26.06.06.0
    Zimbabwe2.9-3.6-7.3-2.7-4.4-10.4-3.8-5.3-4.8-5.7-3.6
    Central and eastern Europe31.10.54.90.24.54.86.65.56.05.55.3
    Albania-0.510.17.37.02.95.75.95.55.06.06.0
    Bosnia and Herzegovina9.55.23.65.04.15.85.06.06.06.0
    Bulgaria-5.62.35.44.14.94.55.75.56.26.06.0
    Croatia-0.92.94.45.65.33.84.34.64.74.5
    Czech Republic0.01.33.62.51.93.64.26.16.14.84.3
    Estonia0.310.87.78.07.18.110.511.49.97.9
    Hungary-0.24.25.24.14.34.14.94.23.92.83.0
    Latvia4.76.98.06.57.28.610.211.910.57.0
    Lithuania-1.54.16.66.910.37.37.67.57.06.5
    Macedonia, FYR4.34.5-4.50.92.84.13.84.04.54.5
    Malta5.33.8-1.0-1.11.9-2.30.82.22.52.32.3
    Serbia-18.04.54.84.22.58.46.25.45.05.5
    Poland2.54.54.21.11.43.85.33.55.85.85.0
    Romania-2.9-1.22.15.75.15.28.44.17.76.54.8
    Slovak Republic0.30.73.24.14.25.46.08.28.27.5
    Turkey4.3-4.77.4-7.57.95.88.97.45.55.06.0
    Commonwealth of Independent States3,45.29.06.35.37.98.46.67.77.06.4
    Russia6.410.05.14.77.37.26.46.76.45.9
    Excluding Russia2.46.79.16.69.311.06.99.78.37.5
    Armenia3.36.09.613.214.010.514.013.49.06.0
    Azerbaijan11.46.26.58.110.410.224.331.029.223.1
    Belarus3.45.84.75.07.011.49.39.95.53.9
    Georgia3.01.94.75.511.15.99.69.07.56.5
    Kazakhstan2.79.813.59.89.39.69.710.69.08.1
    Kyrgyz Republic3.75.45.3-0.07.07.0-0.22.76.56.6
    Moldova-3.42.16.17.86.67.47.54.04.55.0
    Mongolia-0.33.21.21.14.26.110.86.68.48.07.0
    Tajikistan3.78.310.29.110.210.66.77.07.58.0
    Turkmenistan16.518.620.415.817.114.79.09.010.010.0
    Ukraine-0.25.99.25.29.612.12.77.15.04.6
    Uzbekistan4.33.84.24.04.27.77.07.27.77.5
    Developing Asia7.36.47.06.07.08.48.79.29.48.88.4
    Afghanistan, Rep. of28.615.78.014.08.012.210.8
    Bangladesh4.75.45.64.84.85.86.16.36.76.66.5
    Bhutan4.57.97.67.210.07.66.86.513.715.28.6
    Brunei Darussalam3.12.92.73.92.90.50.43.82.63.0
    Cambodia12.68.47.76.28.610.013.49.57.06.0
    China9.67.68.48.39.110.010.110.410.710.09.5
    Fiji3.89.2-2.82.74.33.05.40.73.22.31.7
    India5.76.75.34.14.37.37.89.29.28.47.8
    Indonesia4.80.85.43.64.54.85.05.75.56.06.3
    Kiribati3.19.53.91.75.81.4-2.9-0.25.82.51.6
    Lao PDR6.67.35.85.75.96.16.47.17.67.17.9
    Malaysia7.46.18.90.34.45.57.25.25.95.55.8
    Maldives6.77.24.83.56.58.59.5-4.516.14.03.0
    Myanmar5.310.913.711.312.013.813.613.27.05.54.0
    Nepal4.84.56.15.6-0.63.33.82.71.93.54.5
    Pakistan4.13.74.32.03.24.97.48.06.26.56.5
    Papua New Guinea4.21.9-2.5-0.1-0.22.22.73.33.74.33.7
    Philippines3.03.46.01.84.44.96.25.05.45.85.8
    Samoa2.42.13.77.14.41.63.35.42.33.03.5
    Solomon Islands4.8-0.5-14.3-9.0-1.66.48.05.04.83.83.4
    Sri Lanka5.04.36.0-1.54.06.05.46.07.57.07.0
    Thailand5.84.44.82.25.37.16.34.55.04.54.8
    Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of15.516.5-6.7-6.20.32.3-1.632.03.6
    Tonga1.42.35.42.63.03.21.42.31.90.61.6
    Vanuatu4.4-3.22.7-2.6-7.43.25.56.85.55.04.0
    Vietnam7.74.86.86.97.17.37.88.48.28.07.8
    Middle East4.51.85.43.03.96.55.65.45.75.55.5
    Bahrain4.84.35.24.65.27.25.67.87.76.96.6
    Egypt3.76.15.43.53.23.24.14.56.86.76.6
    Iran, I.R. of5.51.95.13.77.57.25.14.45.35.05.0
    Iraq
    Jordan2.73.44.35.35.84.28.47.26.06.06.0
    Kuwait2.7-1.84.70.23.016.510.510.05.03.54.8
    Lebanon-0.1-0.81.74.53.34.17.01.01.03.5
    Libya-1.11.13.45.91.45.95.06.35.67.98.1
    Oman5.2-0.25.57.52.62.05.45.85.96.06.3
    Qatar4.74.59.13.37.13.520.86.18.88.011.8
    Saudi Arabia3.1-0.74.90.50.17.75.36.64.64.84.0
    Syrian Arab Republic5.3-3.12.33.73.71.02.42.93.03.34.7
    United Arab Emirates6.63.112.41.72.611.99.78.59.78.27.2
    Yemen, Rep. of3.54.44.63.93.12.63.73.82.62.9
    Western Hemisphere3.10.33.90.50.32.46.04.65.54.94.2
    Antigua and Barbuda3.54.93.31.52.04.35.25.38.03.81.8
    Argentina3.8-3.4-0.8-4.4-10.98.89.09.28.57.55.5
    Bahamas, The1.64.01.90.82.31.41.82.74.04.54.0
    Barbados0.90.52.3-2.60.51.94.54.13.54.92.0
    Belize6.58.713.05.05.19.34.63.55.03.53.3
    Bolivia4.30.42.51.72.52.93.94.14.54.55.3
    Brazil2.00.34.31.32.71.15.72.93.74.44.2
    Chile7.5-0.44.53.52.24.06.05.74.05.25.1
    Colombia3.6-4.22.91.51.93.94.95.36.85.54.5
    Costa Rica5.18.21.81.12.96.44.35.97.96.05.0
    Dominica2.01.61.4-4.2-5.10.13.03.44.13.03.0
    Dominican Republic4.28.18.13.64.4-1.92.09.310.76.04.5
    Ecuador2.9-6.32.85.34.23.67.94.74.22.72.9
    El Salvador4.63.42.21.72.32.31.82.84.24.04.0
    Grenada3.67.37.0-4.40.85.8-6.912.12.15.04.0
    Guatemala4.13.83.62.32.22.12.73.24.64.54.0
    Guyana3.93.0-1.32.31.1-0.71.6-1.94.85.24.7
    Haiti-0.62.61.3-0.6-0.50.2-2.60.42.23.54.0
    Honduras3.4-1.95.72.62.73.55.04.15.54.83.4
    Jamaica1.21.00.71.51.12.31.01.42.73.03.1
    Mexico3.43.86.60.81.44.22.84.83.43.5
    Nicaragua2.37.04.13.00.82.55.14.03.74.25.0
    Panama5.83.92.70.62.24.27.56.98.16.66.8
    Paraguay3.2-1.5-3.32.13.84.12.94.04.04.5
    Peru1.60.93.00.25.23.95.26.48.06.05.5
    St. Kitts and Nevis4.33.96.51.7-0.3-1.27.34.14.66.04.3
    St. Lucia3.53.90.1-3.70.82.94.85.84.24.04.3
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines3.43.62.0-0.13.22.86.82.24.15.56.3
    Suriname0.8-0.9-0.16.82.66.08.15.55.85.34.0
    Trinidad and Tobago3.08.06.94.27.913.99.17.912.07.04.5
    Uruguay3.6-2.8-1.4-3.4-11.02.211.86.67.05.03.5
    Venezuela2.1-6.03.73.4-8.9-7.818.310.310.36.22.0

    For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July–June to January–December).

    Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

    Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Inflation

    Table 7.Summary of Inflation(Percent)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1989–981999–20081999200020012002200320042005200620072008
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies3.31.70.91.51.91.61.71.91.91.91.41.7
    United States2.52.21.42.22.41.72.12.83.02.91.71.9
    Euro area1.90.91.52.72.62.11.91.91.71.81.8
    Japan0.9-1.0-1.3-1.7-1.2-1.5-1.6-1.1-1.3-0.9-0.30.6
    Other advanced economies14.01.81.11.92.01.82.02.01.91.71.32.0
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies3.52.01.42.22.11.51.82.02.32.31.82.1
    United States3.32.62.23.42.81.62.32.73.43.21.92.5
    Euro area22.11.12.12.42.32.12.12.22.22.02.0
    Japan1.5-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.2-0.60.20.30.8
    Other advanced economies4.01.91.11.82.11.71.81.72.12.12.02.1
    Other emerging market and developing countries50.36.210.37.16.75.85.85.65.45.35.44.9
    Regional groups
    Africa28.210.511.813.512.59.710.67.98.49.510.710.4
    Central and eastern Europe63.511.223.723.119.714.98.36.14.85.04.83.7
    Commonwealth of Independent States317.969.824.720.313.812.010.312.49.59.08.3
    Developing Asia9.73.12.51.82.72.02.54.13.64.03.93.4
    Middle East11.46.76.64.03.85.36.27.27.17.910.68.7
    Western Hemisphere134.27.08.37.66.18.910.66.56.35.45.25.7
    Memorandum
    European Union11.52.42.23.13.02.52.22.32.32.32.22.2
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel74.113.036.213.913.511.711.39.69.98.99.48.5
    Nonfuel46.55.26.76.15.64.95.05.04.74.84.84.3
    of which, primary products73.523.930.735.530.917.619.214.717.022.525.527.2
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries55.77.310.48.88.18.17.35.76.26.76.45.6
    of which, official financing27.75.75.33.84.13.75.97.47.36.96.65.6
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 2001–0544.611.614.110.411.414.211.68.610.713.111.511.2
    Memorandum
    Median inflation rate
    Advanced economies3.12.11.42.72.62.22.11.92.12.22.02.0
    Other emerging market and developing countries10.34.53.94.04.73.34.04.55.75.55.34.4

    In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

    Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

    Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Table 8.Advanced Economies: GDP Deflators and Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
    1989–981999–20081999200020012002200320042005200620072008200620072008
    GDP deflators
    Advanced economies3.31.70.91.51.91.61.71.91.91.91.41.7
    United States2.52.21.42.22.41.72.12.83.02.91.71.92.51.71.9
    Euro area1.90.91.52.72.62.11.91.91.71.81.81.51.91.9
    Germany3.40.70.4-0.61.21.41.10.90.70.30.81.00.20.81.3
    France1.91.71.52.02.41.81.71.82.11.81.72.01.71.7
    Italy4.92.41.32.03.03.43.12.92.21.82.01.91.22.01.8
    Spain4.93.72.63.54.24.34.14.04.13.83.43.13.63.13.0
    Netherlands2.12.51.84.15.13.82.20.71.71.52.02.21.32.62.1
    Belgium2.61.70.31.92.01.91.62.42.11.81.61.71.52.01.4
    Austria2.21.50.61.81.81.41.31.71.91.31.71.71.61.71.7
    Finland2.81.10.92.63.01.3-0.40.60.21.30.11.1-1.84.5-0.8
    Greece12.33.53.05.72.73.73.63.33.43.13.33.33.13.33.3
    Portugal7.03.13.33.03.73.93.12.72.82.93.02.43.14.32.6
    Ireland3.33.74.05.55.55.02.51.83.53.53.62.43.43.02.4
    Luxembourg2.43.15.32.00.12.74.91.74.73.92.82.4
    Slovenia1.92.3-0.52.63.52.41.11.12.31.82.32.12.33.5
    Japan0.9-1.0-1.3-1.7-1.2-1.5-1.6-1.1-1.3-0.9-0.30.6-0.6-0.10.8
    United Kingdom4.22.42.21.32.23.13.12.62.22.32.72.72.42.52.8
    Canada1.92.31.74.11.11.13.43.03.22.11.32.10.52.01.8
    Korea7.11.2-0.10.73.52.82.72.7-0.2-0.4-1.01.6-0.5-1.82.9
    Australia2.33.20.64.04.02.53.43.44.64.63.21.84.22.21.7
    Taiwan Province of China2.9-0.7-1.3-1.60.5-0.8-2.1-1.6-0.5-0.8-0.31.2-0.3-0.2-10.2
    Sweden3.91.50.91.42.11.62.00.21.21.81.82.02.11.82.0
    Switzerland2.00.90.70.80.61.61.20.6-0.11.01.01.21.01.01.2
    Hong Kong SAR6.7-2.5-5.8-5.6-1.8-3.5-6.3-3.6-0.4-0.31.51.0-0.52.00.4
    Denmark2.12.31.73.02.52.31.62.03.22.61.92.02.62.41.8
    Norway2.24.86.615.71.7-1.83.05.38.57.4-1.03.62.7-0.46.1
    Israel12.91.86.01.31.84.8-0.3-0.10.82.0-0.32.0-0.61.82.1
    Singapore2.5-5.33.7-1.8-1.2-1.13.70.40.20.81.00.40.81.0
    New Zealand2.12.30.72.83.90.92.33.42.51.82.02.41.72.32.2
    Cyprus4.52.82.33.83.41.25.13.32.42.52.12.1
    Iceland6.64.43.23.68.65.60.52.42.911.56.0-0.1
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.61.60.91.21.61.41.61.91.91.91.41.71.61.41.7
    Newly industrialized Asian economies5.50.1-1.5-0.61.60.80.7-0.3-0.5-0.41.4-0.3-0.6-1.3
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies3.52.01.42.22.11.51.82.02.32.31.82.1
    United States3.32.62.23.42.81.62.32.73.43.21.92.51.92.62.5
    Euro area22.11.12.12.42.32.12.12.22.22.02.01.82.02.0
    Germany2.61.50.61.41.91.41.01.81.91.82.01.61.32.21.6
    France2.21.80.61.81.81.92.22.31.91.91.71.81.52.70.8
    Italy4.52.31.72.62.32.62.82.32.22.22.12.02.01.72.3
    Spain4.83.12.23.52.83.63.13.13.43.62.62.72.62.92.6
    Japan1.5-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.2-0.60.20.30.80.30.60.8
    United Kingdom23.71.61.30.91.21.31.41.32.02.32.32.02.82.02.0
    Canada2.52.21.72.72.52.32.71.82.22.01.72.01.32.22.0
    Other advanced economies4.61.90.92.02.41.81.81.92.12.02.02.2
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.91.91.42.21.91.31.72.02.32.31.72.01.62.12.0
    Newly industrialized Asian economies5.31.61.21.91.01.52.42.31.62.12.11.42.61.7

    From fourth quarter of preceding year.

    Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

    Table 9.Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1989–981999–20081999200020012002200320042005200620072008
    Hourly earnings
    Advanced economies4.23.43.15.43.04.44.62.43.53.43.23.4
    United States3.54.73.99.02.47.37.02.04.73.83.44.0
    Euro area3.55.25.24.43.32.52.82.63.22.62.8
    Germany5.12.32.53.63.52.42.50.72.02.61.52.1
    France3.52.91.03.61.53.33.33.53.03.53.23.0
    Italy4.72.60.91.62.53.22.84.01.53.83.13.0
    Spain6.13.62.72.94.15.04.94.03.53.52.72.8
    Japan3.60.5-0.7-0.11.0-1.31.00.41.20.42.01.7
    United Kingdom6.04.14.04.74.33.53.63.73.75.24.83.9
    Canada3.42.82.23.23.13.63.11.23.82.42.52.8
    Other advanced economies7.65.36.66.65.64.34.95.34.95.24.84.9
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies4.03.42.55.52.44.44.61.93.43.23.13.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies11.67.39.97.98.45.87.27.36.86.56.46.4
    Productivity1
    Advanced economies2.93.34.15.20.84.24.43.33.43.73.02.7
    United States3.54.04.44.31.77.06.21.84.84.03.33.0
    Euro area3.45.66.72.61.51.83.52.94.02.72.4
    Germany3.24.02.65.33.00.93.93.86.56.94.03.0
    France4.33.92.96.81.03.14.14.64.94.73.73.5
    Italy0.9-0.2-0.71.2-1.2-1.0-1.01.4-2.81.10.50.6
    Spain3.52.44.31.92.12.31.92.00.63.92.52.1
    Japan1.73.03.26.8-3.03.75.35.31.63.03.01.8
    United Kingdom2.44.24.36.13.32.05.86.72.63.84.73.5
    Canada2.31.64.35.8-2.22.0-0.60.13.60.10.82.0
    Other advanced economies3.44.28.07.44.23.95.33.33.93.13.2
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies2.93.53.55.00.84.44.83.03.73.83.12.7
    Newly industrialized Asian economies5.16.513.312.1-0.36.15.77.75.16.04.85.0
    Unit labor costs
    Advanced economies1.30.1-1.00.32.20.20.1-0.80.1-0.30.20.7
    United States0.7-0.54.60.70.20.80.2-0.1-0.20.11.0
    Euro area0.1-0.4-1.41.71.90.7-0.6-0.2-0.8-0.10.4
    Germany1.8-1.6-0.2-1.70.51.5-1.3-2.9-4.2-4.0-2.4-0.9
    France-0.8-1.0-1.8-3.10.50.2-0.7-1.1-1.8-1.2-0.5-0.5
    Italy3.82.81.70.53.74.33.82.54.42.62.62.4
    Spain2.51.2-1.61.02.02.73.01.92.9-0.30.20.7
    Japan2.0-2.4-3.8-6.54.0-4.8-4.1-4.7-0.4-2.6-0.9-0.1
    United Kingdom23.5-0.1-0.3-1.31.01.5-2.1-2.81.11.30.10.4
    Canada1.01.2-2.0-2.45.31.53.71.10.22.21.70.8
    Other advanced economies4.30.9-1.1-0.95.40.6-0.41.21.11.41.4
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies1.1-1.00.61.7-0.2-1.0-0.3-0.6-0.10.6
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.20.3-2.8-3.98.1-0.50.7-1.20.80.11.11.0

    Refers to labor productivity, measured as the ratio of hourly compensation to unit labor costs.

    Data refer to unit wage cost.

    Table 10.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    Ten-Year Averages
    1989–981999–20081999200020012002200320042005200620072008
    Other emerging market and developing countries50.36.210.37.16.75.85.85.65.45.35.44.9
    Regional groups
    Africa28.210.511.813.512.59.710.67.98.49.510.710.4
    Sub-Sahara33.512.914.917.415.512.013.29.510.511.512.712.2
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa52.918.723.728.822.213.718.414.114.016.818.617.7
    Central and eastern Europe63.511.223.723.119.714.98.36.14.85.04.83.7
    Commonwealth of Independent States117.969.824.720.313.812.010.312.49.59.08.3
    Russia19.085.720.821.515.813.710.912.79.78.17.5
    Excluding Russia15.437.934.517.79.48.49.111.79.210.910.1
    Developing Asia9.73.12.51.82.72.02.54.13.64.03.93.4
    China9.41.2-1.40.40.7-0.81.23.91.81.52.22.3
    India9.74.54.74.03.84.33.83.84.26.16.24.3
    Excluding China and India10.46.18.72.66.16.34.65.07.78.56.25.5
    Middle East11.46.76.64.03.85.36.27.27.17.910.68.7
    Western Hemisphere134.27.08.37.66.18.910.66.56.35.45.25.7
    Brazil456.26.74.97.16.88.414.86.66.94.23.54.1
    Mexico20.46.116.69.56.45.04.54.74.03.63.93.5
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel74.113.036.213.913.511.711.39.69.98.99.48.5
    Nonfuel46.55.26.76.15.64.95.05.04.74.84.84.3
    of which, primary products73.523.930.735.530.917.619.214.717.022.525.527.2
    By external financing source
    Net debtor countries55.77.310.48.88.18.17.35.76.26.76.45.6
    of which, official financing27.75.75.33.84.13.75.97.47.36.96.65.6
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 2001–0544.611.614.110.411.414.211.68.610.713.111.511.2
    Other groups
    Heavily indebted poor countries56.011.918.525.519.55.99.47.010.09.08.86.9
    Middle East and north Africa13.35.95.93.63.64.85.46.46.06.99.17.7
    Memorandum
    Median
    Other emerging market and developing countries10.34.53.94.04.73.34.04.55.75.55.34.4
    Africa10.35.03.75.75.24.05.54.16.45.15.54.9
    Central and eastern Europe45.03.52.95.25.23.02.13.33.03.83.53.2
    Commonwealth of Independent States110.723.518.79.85.65.67.210.38.68.88.9
    Developing Asia8.54.44.02.43.83.73.54.65.86.15.55.0
    Middle East5.53.12.10.71.40.81.73.44.15.66.24.6
    Western Hemisphere12.84.54.24.74.54.65.14.44.95.14.53.6

    Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Table 11.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries—by Country: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1989–98
    1999200020012002200320042005200620072008
    Africa28.211.813.512.59.710.67.98.49.510.710.4
    Algeria18.02.60.34.21.42.63.61.62.55.55.7
    Angola397.8248.2325.0152.6108.998.343.623.013.310.25.9
    Benin7.20.34.24.02.41.50.95.43.83.02.8
    Botswana11.37.88.56.68.09.36.98.611.36.05.0
    Burkina Faso4.4-1.1-0.34.72.32.0-0.46.42.42.02.0
    Cameroon24.82.90.82.86.30.60.32.05.31.51.9
    Cape Verde7.34.3-2.43.71.91.2-1.90.44.9-0.82.6
    Central African Republic3.7-1.43.23.82.34.4-2.22.95.13.12.3
    Chad4.5-8.43.812.45.2-1.8-5.47.97.94.03.0
    Comoros2.91.15.95.63.63.74.53.03.43.03.0
    Congo, Dem. Rep. of790.1284.9550.0357.325.312.84.021.413.217.48.9
    Congo, Rep. of5.93.10.40.83.11.53.62.54.03.53.0
    Côte d’Ivoire5.70.72.54.43.13.31.53.91.62.03.0
    Djibouti4.50.21.61.80.62.03.13.13.63.53.5
    Equatorial Guinea6.70.44.88.87.67.34.25.74.65.45.4
    Eritrea8.419.914.616.922.725.112.517.322.725.2
    Ethiopia7.64.86.2-5.2-7.215.18.66.812.317.012.9
    Gabon5.7-0.70.52.10.22.10.44.04.52.0
    Gambia, The5.83.80.94.58.617.014.23.21.53.23.5
    Ghana28.112.425.232.914.826.712.615.110.99.48.8
    Guinea3.24.66.85.43.012.917.531.433.934.125.0
    Guinea-Bissau44.1-2.18.63.33.3-3.50.83.41.91.92.0
    Kenya16.25.810.05.82.09.811.610.314.14.13.5
    Lesotho11.67.84.56.912.57.35.03.46.16.05.5
    Liberia5.312.114.210.33.66.97.27.06.5
    Madagascar16.58.110.76.916.2-1.114.018.410.89.66.9
    Malawi25.844.829.627.214.99.611.612.39.07.06.0
    Mali3.9-1.2-0.75.25.0-1.3-3.16.41.92.52.5
    Mauritania5.53.66.87.75.45.310.412.16.27.96.0
    Mauritius8.56.95.54.84.45.13.95.65.110.46.0
    Morocco4.70.71.90.62.81.21.51.03.32.02.0
    Mozambique, Rep. of36.22.912.79.116.813.512.66.413.25.95.7
    Namibia10.98.69.39.311.37.24.12.35.15.95.3
    Niger4.6-2.32.94.02.7-1.80.47.80.12.02.0
    Nigeria33.06.66.918.013.714.015.017.88.37.99.1
    Rwanda16.7-2.43.93.42.07.412.09.25.55.05.0
    São Tomé and Príncipe42.811.011.09.59.29.612.816.321.418.611.4
    Senegal4.00.80.73.02.30.51.72.12.81.7
    Seychelles1.66.36.36.00.23.23.91.0-0.511.08.9
    Sierra Leone45.234.1-0.92.6-3.77.514.212.19.58.48.0
    South Africa10.85.25.45.79.25.81.43.44.75.54.9
    Sudan81.516.08.04.98.37.78.48.57.29.26.0
    Swaziland9.75.97.27.511.77.43.44.85.15.84.6
    Tanzania22.59.06.25.14.64.44.14.45.85.55.0
    Togo5.9-0.11.93.93.1-0.90.46.82.72.93.0
    Tunisia5.32.72.32.02.72.73.62.04.53.02.9
    Uganda26.40.25.84.5-2.05.75.08.06.65.84.2
    Zambia78.526.826.121.722.221.418.018.39.18.04.9
    Zimbabwe23.858.055.673.4133.2365.0350.0237.81,016.72,879.56,470.8
    Central and eastern Europe363.523.723.119.714.98.36.14.85.04.83.7
    Albania34.60.43.15.22.32.92.42.23.43.0
    Bosnia and Herzegovina3.05.13.20.30.60.31.96.02.51.9
    Bulgaria111.12.68.27.55.82.36.15.07.35.33.6
    Croatia4.04.63.71.71.82.13.33.22.72.8
    Czech Republic13.92.33.84.71.80.12.81.82.52.93.0
    Estonia3.34.05.83.61.33.04.14.44.85.3
    Hungary22.710.09.89.25.34.66.83.63.96.43.8
    Latvia2.42.62.51.92.96.26.76.57.36.5
    Lithuania1.51.11.60.3-1.11.22.73.83.53.4
    Macedonia, FYR-2.75.84.82.21.40.10.53.22.52.5
    Malta3.02.33.02.52.61.92.72.52.62.42.3
    Poland70.47.310.15.51.90.83.52.11.02.22.9
    Romania102.745.845.734.522.515.311.99.06.64.55.0
    Serbia41.170.091.819.511.710.117.312.74.76.1
    Slovak Republic10.612.07.13.38.57.52.84.42.42.3
    Turkey76.264.954.954.445.021.68.68.29.68.04.3
    Commonwealth of Independent States3,469.824.720.313.812.010.312.49.59.08.3
    Russia85.720.821.515.813.710.912.79.78.17.5
    Excluding Russia37.934.517.79.48.49.111.79.210.910.1
    Armenia0.6-0.83.11.14.77.00.62.94.04.5
    Azerbaijan-8.51.81.52.82.26.79.78.421.117.0
    Belarus293.7168.661.142.628.418.110.37.011.413.7
    Georgia19.14.04.75.64.85.78.39.26.35.5
    Kazakhstan8.413.38.45.96.46.97.68.68.86.8
    Kyrgyz Republic35.918.76.92.13.14.14.35.65.04.0
    Moldova39.331.39.85.311.712.511.912.711.48.9
    Mongolia7.611.68.01.13.38.312.15.05.35.0
    Tajikistan27.532.938.612.216.47.27.310.111.49.2
    Turkmenistan23.58.011.68.85.65.910.78.26.59.0
    Ukraine22.728.212.00.85.29.013.59.011.310.0
    Uzbekistan52.949.547.544.314.88.821.019.510.412.2
    Developing Asia9.72.51.82.72.02.54.13.64.03.93.4
    Afghanistan, Rep. of5.124.113.212.35.55.9
    Bangladesh6.66.22.51.93.75.46.17.06.36.45.4
    Bhutan10.06.84.03.42.52.14.65.35.25.55.3
    Brunei Darussalam1.20.6-2.30.30.91.10.51.21.2
    Cambodia4.0-0.80.23.31.23.95.84.83.53.5
    China9.4-1.40.40.7-0.81.23.91.81.52.22.3
    Fiji4.62.01.14.30.84.22.82.43.43.73.1
    India9.74.74.03.84.33.83.84.26.16.24.3
    Indonesia12.220.73.811.511.86.86.110.513.16.35.3
    Kiribati3.90.60.97.01.62.6-1.9-0.5-0.20.21.0
    Lao PDR18.3128.423.27.812.115.510.57.26.84.04.5
    Malaysia3.72.71.61.41.81.11.43.03.62.62.5
    Maldives8.83.0-1.20.70.9-2.86.33.33.57.06.0
    Myanmar28.310.9-1.734.558.124.93.810.126.337.535.0
    Nepal9.83.42.42.94.74.04.04.58.07.06.1
    Pakistan9.95.73.64.42.53.14.69.37.96.56.0
    Papua New Guinea7.614.915.69.311.814.72.11.73.54.34.0
    Philippines10.16.44.06.82.93.56.07.66.24.04.0
    Samoa5.50.8-0.21.97.44.37.97.83.22.63.0
    Solomon Islands11.38.06.97.69.310.06.97.38.06.68.1
    Sri Lanka11.94.01.512.110.22.67.910.69.514.06.5
    Thailand5.50.31.61.70.61.82.84.54.62.52.5
    Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of63.63.64.87.03.21.84.15.03.7
    Tonga4.43.95.36.910.411.111.79.76.87.98.2
    Vanuatu3.82.22.53.72.03.01.41.21.62.53.0
    Vietnam26.94.1-1.6-0.44.03.27.78.37.56.56.4
    Middle East11.46.64.03.85.36.27.27.17.910.68.7
    Bahrain1.1-1.3-0.7-1.2-0.51.72.32.63.03.02.8
    Egypt12.33.72.82.42.43.28.18.84.212.310.7
    Iran, I.R. of23.320.112.611.415.815.615.212.114.617.815.8
    Iraq
    Jordan7.40.60.71.81.81.63.43.56.35.73.5
    Kuwait3.63.11.61.40.81.01.34.13.02.82.6
    Lebanon31.90.2-0.4-0.41.81.31.7-0.75.63.52.5
    Libya6.42.6-2.9-8.8-9.9-2.1-2.22.03.416.26.9
    Oman1.70.5-1.2-0.8-0.30.20.71.93.23.83.5
    Qatar3.02.21.71.40.22.36.88.811.810.08.5
    Saudi Arabia1.4-1.3-1.1-1.10.20.60.40.72.32.82.0
    Syrian Arab Republic9.1-3.7-3.93.4-0.55.84.47.210.08.05.0
    United Arab Emirates3.62.11.42.82.93.15.07.810.16.24.6
    Yemen, Rep. of37.78.010.911.912.210.812.511.821.621.117.5
    Western Hemisphere134.28.37.66.18.910.66.56.35.45.25.7
    Antigua and Barbuda3.80.6-0.6-0.42.42.02.02.12.03.42.0
    Argentina125.4-1.2-0.9-1.125.913.44.49.610.910.312.7
    Bahamas, The3.21.31.62.02.23.00.92.21.91.92.0
    Barbados3.41.52.42.6-1.21.61.46.07.24.92.4
    Belize2.1-1.30.71.22.22.63.13.74.32.92.8
    Bolivia11.72.24.61.60.93.34.45.44.36.56.0
    Brazil456.24.97.16.88.414.86.66.94.23.54.1
    Chile12.93.33.83.62.52.81.13.13.42.53.0
    Colombia23.610.99.28.06.37.15.95.04.34.23.7
    Costa Rica17.410.011.011.39.29.412.313.811.58.17.0
    Dominica2.91.20.91.60.11.62.41.61.51.51.5
    Dominican Republic17.46.57.78.95.227.451.54.27.64.54.4
    Ecuador40.652.296.137.712.67.92.72.13.32.83.0
    El Salvador12.20.52.33.81.92.14.53.74.64.43.5
    Grenada2.80.62.11.71.12.22.33.53.82.72.0
    Guatemala15.65.26.07.38.15.67.69.16.66.26.0
    Guyana29.47.46.12.75.36.04.76.96.64.53.2
    Haiti20.88.713.714.29.939.321.215.814.29.69.1
    Honduras19.311.611.09.77.77.78.18.85.66.06.6
    Jamaica27.86.08.17.07.110.513.515.38.66.26.1
    Mexico20.416.69.56.45.04.54.74.03.63.93.5
    Nicaragua154.77.29.94.74.06.59.39.69.46.15.2
    Panama1.01.31.40.31.00.60.52.92.52.22.4
    Paraguay18.16.89.07.310.514.24.36.89.610.23.4
    Peru201.63.53.82.00.22.33.71.62.01.02.0
    St. Kitts and Nevis3.73.42.12.12.12.32.23.66.83.22.1
    St. Lucia3.33.54.05.4-0.31.01.53.92.54.03.0
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines3.31.00.20.80.80.23.03.73.03.93.7
    Suriname59.798.758.639.815.523.09.19.911.34.64.3
    Trinidad and Tobago6.73.43.65.54.23.83.76.98.39.09.0
    Uruguay53.15.74.84.414.019.49.24.76.46.05.0
    Venezuela52.123.616.212.522.431.121.715.913.621.625.7

    In accordance with standard practice in the World Economic Outlook, movements in consumer prices are indicated as annual averages rather than as December/December changes during the year, as is the practice in some countries. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

    The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July–June to January–December).

    For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

    Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    Financial Policies

    Table 12.Summary of Financial Indicators(Percent)
    1999200020012002200320042005200620072008
    Advanced economies
    Central government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies-1.00.1-0.9-2.4-3.1-2.8-2.4-1.8-1.7-1.7
    United States1.11.90.4-2.6-3.8-3.7-2.9-1.9-2.0-2.1
    Euro area-1.6-0.4-1.6-2.0-2.3-2.4-2.3-1.5-1.2-1.1
    Japan-8.2-6.6-6.1-6.6-6.7-5.6-5.8-5.9-5.8-5.8
    Other advanced economies20.71.51.0-0.2-0.8-0.20.20.50.40.5
    General government fiscal balance1
    Advanced economies-1.0-1.4-3.2-3.8-3.3-2.5-1.8-1.6-1.6
    United States0.91.6-0.4-3.8-4.8-4.6-3.7-2.6-2.5-2.5
    Euro area-1.4-1.0-1.9-2.6-3.1-2.8-2.4-1.6-1.2-1.1
    Japan-7.4-7.6-6.3-8.0-8.0-6.2-4.8-4.3-3.8-3.5
    Other advanced economies20.21.70.4-0.4-0.7-0.10.60.70.40.6
    General government structural balance3
    Advanced economies-1.4-1.2-1.8-3.4-3.7-3.4-2.7-2.1-1.8-1.8
    Growth of broad money4
    Advanced economies5.94.98.15.75.45.55.6
    United States6.06.010.46.35.05.84.05.3
    Euro area5.74.18.06.97.16.67.39.8
    Japan2.71.93.31.81.61.82.00.9
    Other advanced economies29.16.68.16.17.26.59.0
    Short-term interest rates5
    United States4.86.03.51.61.01.43.24.85.25.1
    Euro area3.04.44.33.32.32.12.23.13.83.7
    Japan0.00.20.00.00.00.00.00.30.91.2
    LIBOR5.56.63.71.91.21.83.85.35.35.1
    Other emerging market and developing countries
    Central government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average-3.8-3.0-3.1-3.4-2.7-1.6-0.9-0.4-1.1-0.8
    Median-3.1-2.7-3.7-3.6-3.2-2.5-1.9-1.2-1.9-1.9
    General government fiscal balance1
    Weighted average-4.8-3.5-3.9-4.3-3.4-1.9-1.1-0.5-1.3-1.1
    Median-3.4-3.2-3.3-3.6-3.0-2.4-1.9-0.9-1.7-1.9
    Growth of broad money
    Weighted average17.615.115.716.515.716.919.120.515.913.9
    Median13.115.113.713.313.013.614.316.212.311.1

    Percent of GDP.

    In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

    Percent of potential GDP.

    M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs). Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro-area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

    Annual data are period average. For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for the euro area, the three-month EURIBOR; and for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

    Table 13.Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Fiscal Balances and Balances Excluding Social Security Transactions1(Percent of GDP)
    1999200020012002200320042005200620072008
    General government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies-1.0-1.4-3.2-3.8-3.3-2.5-1.8-1.6-1.6
    United States0.91.6-0.4-3.8-4.8-4.6-3.7-2.6-2.5-2.5
    Euro area-1.4-1.0-1.9-2.6-3.1-2.8-2.4-1.6-1.2-1.1
    Germany-1.51.3-2.8-3.7-4.0-3.7-3.2-1.7-1.3-1.3
    France2-1.7-1.5-1.6-3.2-4.2-3.7-2.9-2.6-2.6-2.4
    Italy-1.7-0.8-3.1-2.9-3.5-3.4-4.1-4.4-2.2-2.4
    Spain-1.1-0.9-0.5-0.3-0.21.11.81.31.1
    Netherlands0.62.1-0.3-2.0-3.1-1.8-0.30.50.50.7
    Belgium-0.50.10.6-2.3
    Austria3-2.3-1.6-0.1-0.7-1.8-1.3-1.6-1.2-1.2-1.0
    Finland1.66.95.04.12.42.12.53.83.53.7
    Greece-2.7-3.2-3.9-4.1-4.9-6.2-4.2-2.1-2.0-1.9
    Portugal-2.7-2.7-4.3-4.2-5.2-5.3-5.7-3.9-3.3-2.6
    Ireland42.44.40.7-0.40.31.51.12.11.30.5
    Luxembourg3.46.06.12.10.3-1.1-1.0-1.4-0.9-0.8
    Slovenia-0.6-1.3-1.3-1.5-1.3-1.4-1.1-0.8-0.9-0.8
    Japan-7.4-7.6-6.3-8.0-8.0-6.2-4.8-4.3-3.8-3.5
    United Kingdom1.21.71.1-1.6-3.2-3.1-3.0-2.5-2.4-2.2
    Canada1.62.90.7-0.1-0.40.51.40.90.60.7
    Korea5-2.51.10.62.32.72.31.91.81.92.1
    Australia61.31.80.91.01.62.01.91.00.71.1
    Taiwan Province of China-5.7-4.5-6.4-4.3-2.8-2.9-0.6-0.5-0.9-1.0
    Sweden2.35.02.6-0.5-0.21.62.82.82.32.6
    Switzerland-0.62.2-1.2-1.4-1.0-0.2-0.1-0.9
    Hong Kong SAR0.8-0.6-4.9-4.8-3.31.71.03.91.73.0
    Denmark1.42.31.20.2-0.11.94.64.23.42.5
    Norway6.015.413.39.27.311.115.219.318.019.3
    Israel-4.4-2.1-4.2-4.5-6.9-4.8-2.9-2.7-4.0-3.4
    Singapore4.67.94.84.15.86.07.86.45.35.0
    New Zealand71.51.21.61.73.44.65.85.63.73.2
    Cyprus-4.3-2.3-2.2-4.4-6.2-4.0-2.4-1.4-1.6-0.9
    Iceland2.32.40.2-0.8-2.00.33.22.4-0.5-1.1
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies-1.0-0.2-1.7-4.0-4.8-4.2-3.5-2.7-2.4-2.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies-2.7-0.5-2.0-0.40.50.81.41.71.21.5
    Fiscal balance excluding social security transactions
    United States-0.20.5-1.3-4.3-5.2-5.0-4.2-3.1-2.9-3.0
    Japan-8.5-8.2-6.5-7.9-8.1-6.6-5.1-4.3-3.8-3.7
    Germany-1.71.3-2.6-3.3-3.7-3.7-3.0-1.6-0.7-0.6
    France-2.0-1.9-2.0-2.9-3.6-2.7-2.7-2.1-1.8-1.4
    Italy2.63.10.81.20.70.8-0.31.41.4
    Canada3.94.82.41.41.01.92.92.42.22.3
    Central government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies-1.00.1-0.9-2.4-3.1-2.8-2.4-1.8-1.7-1.7
    United States81.11.90.4-2.6-3.8-3.7-2.9-1.9-2.0-2.1
    Euro area-1.6-0.4-1.6-2.0-2.3-2.4-2.3-1.5-1.2-1.1
    Germany9-1.51.4-1.3-1.7-1.8-2.3-2.6-1.4-1.1-1.1
    France-2.6-2.5-2.4-3.6-3.9-3.2-3.0-2.6-2.2-2.0
    Italy-1.4-1.0-2.9-3.0-2.9-3.1-3.7-3.3-1.9-2.0
    Spain-1.0-1.0-0.6-0.5-0.3-1.20.40.80.60.5
    Japan10-8.2-6.6-6.1-6.6-6.7-5.6-5.8-5.9-5.8-5.8
    United Kingdom1.31.81.1-1.8-3.5-3.2-2.9-2.7-2.5-2.1
    Canada0.91.91.10.80.40.10.50.30.2
    Other advanced economies0.21.30.80.30.41.11.72.11.81.9
    Memorandum
    Major advanced economies-1.1-1.2-3.0-3.8-3.5-3.2-2.6-2.4-2.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies-0.80.2-0.60.30.41.01.01.71.21.5

    On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

    Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

    Based on ESA95 methodology, according to which swap income is not included.

    Data include the impact of discharging future pension liabilities of the formerly state-owned telecommunications company at a cost of 1.8 percent of GDP in 1999.

    Data cover the consolidated central government including the social security funds but excluding privatization.