Fiscal Politics
Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Vitor Gaspar, Sanjeev Gupta, and Carlos Mulas-Granados
Published Date:
April 2017
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    Index

    • Abed, G. T., 155

    • Accountability

      • FCs and, 401–7

      • for promise gaps, 34f 35–37, 36t, 39n21

    • Acemoglu, D., 154–55, 282

      • on inclusive politics, 243

    • Adjustment effort

      • in economic shocks, 352, 371

      • for fiscal noncompliance, 365, 365n20

    • Advanced economies

      • elections in, 13, 140

      • ER in, 301–3

      • exchange rates of, 271n2

      • fiscal consolidation in, 13, 27, 28t

      • forecasting in, 346

      • IMF and, 76n19

      • MTBF in, 314

      • optimistic forecasts in, 346

      • PBCs in, 7n13, 63

      • public debt in, 216–17, 217f, 218

      • public investment in, 123

      • tipping points in, 241

      • wage bill in, 149

    • Advisory Fiscal Board, of EU, 400

    • Aggregate demand

      • full employment and, 8

      • government spending and, 178

      • from public investment, 111

    • Aidt, T., 113n4

    • Aizenman, J., 178n3

    • Alesina, A., 26, 27, 47, 94, 94n5, 96, 288

      • CAPB and, 285

      • on FCs, 402

      • on PBCs, 327

      • in public debt, 216–17

      • on status quo changes, 244n1

    • ALLHOUSE, 184, 184n12

    • Allocation, 5

      • for public investment, 123n27

    • Alter, J., 185

    • AMECO, 446, 448

    • American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, 184–85

    • Anderson, T., 493–94

    • Andrews, M., 383n8

    • Angelopoulos, K., 97

    • Annual Government Finance Statistics, of EUROSTAT, 140n3

    • Ardagna, S., 94

      • CAPB and, 285

    • Arellano, M., 68, 119, 119n21, 487

      • FD-GMM of, 356, 361t–362t

    • Arezki, R., 262

    • Argentina

      • economic shocks and, 244n1

      • ER in, 305, 306

    • Argimón, L., 364

    • Armingeon, K., 181

    • Articles of Confederation, 429–30, 436

    • Arze del Granado, F. J., 153n3

    • Auerbach, A. J., 44

    • Auriol, E., 485n10

    • Australia

      • ER in, 306

      • promise gaps in, 49

      • taxes in, 84n1

    • Austria

      • promise gaps in, 49–50

      • SCM in, 291, 292f

    • Autocratic regimes, Great Recession and, 179–80

    • Autonomous Communities, in Spain, 347

    • Baerg, N., 101

    • Bagehot, W., 435

    • Bailouts

      • of banks, 181n6

      • by CGs, 166, 351–52, 351n9

      • defined, 349n7

      • for fiscal noncompliance, 350, 350n5

      • overspending incentives and, 350, 351–52

      • for SNGs, 349n7

      • of SOEs, 166

      • See also No-bailout clause

    • Balanced budget rules (BBR), 100, 100n13, 104n18, 404–5

      • endogeneity and, 73

      • ER and, 301

      • rational voters and, 406

      • taxes and, 102t

    • Balance of payments

      • IMF and, 480n5

      • of LICs, 75n18

    • Banks

      • bailouts for, 181n6

      • crises of, taxes and, 95–96, 96n8

      • See also Central banks

    • Baqir, R., 155n6

    • Bartels, L., 179

    • Basinger, S., 98

    • BBR. See Balanced budget rules

    • Beck, N., 43

    • Beck, T., 500

    • Beetsma, R., 405n4, 407n7

    • Belgium

      • budget forecasts in, 420, 420/

      • debt sustainability in, 50

      • ER in, 303, 306, 308

      • FCs in, 413, 418–22, 420f–422f

      • HCF in, 413, 418–22, 420f–422f

      • media in, 420–21, 421 f

      • promise gaps in, 50

      • public debt in, 419

      • SCM in, 291, 292f

    • Besley, T., 3–4, 3n3, 241

    • Bias

      • fiscal, 404–5

      • overfitting, 68

      • selection, 64–65, 486–87

      • See also Deficit bias

    • Biglaiser, G., 96

    • Bird, G., 486n12

    • Blackstone, William, 431

    • Blanchard, O., 181

    • Blinder, A. S., 181

    • Block, S. A., 64, 64n3

    • Blundell, R., 68, 119, 119n21

      • GMM of, 486n11

    • Bogaert, H., 452–53

    • Bohn, H., 311

    • Bond, S., 68, 119, 119n21, 356, 486n11, 487

    • Bonds

      • in EU, 443–44

      • in U.S., 17, 429

    • Bonfatti, Andrea, 15–16

    • Bordo, M., 271n2

    • Botswana, ER in, 309

    • Bover, O., 68, 119, 119n21

    • Brady, D., 244

    • Braendle, T., 11n20

    • Braütigam, D., 245

    • Brazil

      • economic shocks and, 244n1

      • ER in, 305

    • Brender, A., 63n1, 125, 127, 137n1

    • Brollo, F., 328

    • Brück, T., 197

    • Brückner, M., 99

    • Brun, J., 480

    • BSL. See Budget Stability Law

    • Buchanan, J. M., 5

    • Budget cycles

      • in LICs, 64–65, 68–69, 69t

      • proximity factor and, 6, 7n13

    • Budget deficits. See Deficits

    • Budget forecasts

      • in Belgium, 420, 420f

      • FCs and, 416

      • intergovernmental fiscal arrangements and, 388

      • of minority governments, 197

      • in Netherlands, 416, 416f

    • Budget institutions, 16

      • for credible fiscal policymaking, 378–81

      • defined, 377n2

      • evaluation of, 382–91, 383f, 383n8, 384f

      • fiscal outlook and, 385, 386f, 387f, 396

      • fiscal strategy in, 380–82, 386f–387f, 388–91, 389f–390f 392f–393f 396–97

      • in LICs, 377–97

      • in parliamentary systems, 381

      • strengthening, 394–97

    • Budget Law of 2003, in Italy, 330n4

    • Budget rules, 114

      • government spending and, 118

      • See also Balanced budget rules

    • Budget Stability Law (BSL), in Spain, 353–55, 355n13

    • Bulgaria, ER in, 306

    • Bulir, A., 480

    • Bureau for Economic Analysis, in Netherlands, 413, 414–18

    • Business cycles. See Political business cycles

    • CAB. See Cyclically adjusted budget balance

    • Cabezón, E., 378

    • Cabinet ideology

      • fiscal politics and, 7–9

      • public investment and, 13n21

      • redistribution and, 8

    • Cahuc, P., 137n1, 139

    • Calmfors, L., 401, 413

    • Calvo, E., 99n10

    • Canada

      • decentralization in, 30n8

      • ER in, 306, 308

      • promise gaps in, 50–51

    • CAPB. See Cyclically adjusted primary balance

    • Capello, D., 98

    • Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (Schumpeter), 3

    • Capital spending

      • elections and, 332, 332f

      • fiscal rules and, 330

      • in Italy, 331–32, 331n7, 332f, 336f

      • outsourcing of, 331n7

      • PBCs and, 16, 331

      • public investment and, 130, 130t

      • wage bill and, 139

    • Caporale, G. M., 442

    • Carcillo, S., 137n1, 139

    • Caro, L., 97

    • Cassidy, T., 327

    • CDS. See Credit default swaps

    • Cecchetti, S. G., 181

    • Center for Systemic Peace, 162

    • Central African and Economic Monetary Community, fiscal rules in, 73n15

    • Central banks

      • exchange rates by, 275–77, 276n10

      • Great Recession and, 194, 194n26

      • independence of, 404n5

    • Central governments (CGs)

      • bailouts by, 166, 351–52, 351

      • n9

      • DSP and, 328

      • ER of, 256

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 353, 353n12

      • government spending by, 114n8

      • macroeconomic forecasting for, 373

      • MTBF and, 380

      • SNGs and, 345

      • soft budget constraints for, 345

      • VAT and, 256

    • Centralization, 6, 437

      • of EA, 468–69

      • inclusive politics and, 243–44

      • in LICs, 394

      • of taxes, 256

    • Central Planning Bureau (CPB), in Netherlands, 414–18, 417f, 418f

    • CEPII, 168

    • CGs. See Central governments

    • Chambas, G., 480

    • Checks and balances, 250

      • from DPI, 218

      • in PBCs, 7n13, 192n22

      • for public debt, 224

      • veto players and, 218

    • Cheibub, J. A., 184n10, 202

    • Chernow, Ron, 431

    • China

      • contract responsibility system in, 255–56

      • SAT in, 256–57

      • SOEs in, 242, 255–56

      • taxes in, 254–57, 258f

      • tax-to-GDP ratio in, 256, 257

      • tax-to-GDP threshold of, 242

      • VAT in, 256, 257

    • Cho, H., 480

    • Choi, I., 488

    • Cioffi, M., 327

    • CIT. See Corporate income taxes

    • Clements, B., 153, 161, 162, 163

    • Coady, D., 153n3

    • Coalition governments

      • ER in, 300, 303, 305, 311

      • Great Recession and, 198

      • in Netherlands, 415–16

    • Cobb-Douglas specification, 157

    • Coelho, C., 328

    • Cohesion. See Political cohesion

    • Collier, P., 262

    • Colombia

      • GDP per capita in, 260, 261 f

      • taxes in, 259–60, 261f

      • tax-to-GDP threshold of, 242

      • VAT in, 259–60

    • Combes, J.-L., 72

    • Commission on Growth and Development Report, 244

    • Common pool, 9, 14

      • corruption and, 223

      • in EA, 441

      • in EU, 443–44

      • government spending and, 441n1

      • legislative periods and, 221t

      • overspending incentives and, 352

      • political fragmentation and, 214, 217–18, 222, 230t

      • public debt and, 214, 222, 223t, 230t

      • sanctions and, 465n25

      • taxes and, 215, 441n1

    • Compliance. See Fiscal noncompliance

    • Conditionality

      • endogeneity and, 486

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 484

      • GMM for, 486, 486n11, 487–88

      • of IMF, 477–501, 478f, 479t, 483f, 484f, 489t, 491t–493t, 496t, 498t, 501t

      • robustness tests for, 480, 494–98

      • selection bias and, 486–87

      • for taxes, 477–501, 478f, 479t, 480n5, 483f, 484f, 489t, 491t–493t, 496t, 498t, 501t

      • tax-to-GDP ratio and, 496

      • trade openness and, 485

    • Consiglio comunale (municipal council), 329

    • Consolidation promise gaps. See Promise gaps

    • Constitutive institutions, 243

    • Consumption multiplier, with wage bill, 139

    • Continental certificates, 429

    • Continental financial system

      • in EU, 435–38

      • in U.S., 427–35

    • Contract responsibility system, in China, 255–56

    • Control of parliament

      • political cohesion and, 280

      • in political fragmentation, 217

      • public debt and, 223

    • Conway, P., 486n12

    • Cordes, Till, 15

    • Corporate income taxes (CIT)

      • conditionality and, 481 f, 485

      • in EU, 105

      • in left-wing governments, 98

      • in OECD, 83, 84n1, 85, 86–88, 86f–87f 103, 104n19

      • in right-wing governments, 98

      • tax competition for, 103

    • Correa-Caro, Carolina, 14

    • Corruption

      • common pool and, 223

      • DPI and, 123n25

      • guide, of ICRG, 220, 500

      • index, of Transparency International, 485–86

      • political fragmentation and, 223

      • public debt and, 223, 224t, 232t

      • public social spending and, 158

      • tax tipping points and, 248f

      • World Bank and, 223

    • Council of the European Union, 442

    • Country size, fiscal rules and, 458–62, 459t, 460f, 4611

    • Covariance matrix, for PCA, 36n18

    • Cowen, David, 431, 435

    • CPB. See Central Planning Bureau

    • CPFF. See Ministry of Finance to the Economic and Financial Council

    • Cragg, J., 487–88

    • Credible leadership, 244

    • Credit default swaps (CDS), 411 f

    • Crisis mode, for taxes, 95–97, 103–4

    • The Crisis of the Tax State (Schumpeter), 3n2, 241

    • Crivelli, Ernesto, 14, 17

    • Crowding-out effect

      • for energy subsidies, 154, 164, 166, 169, 171

      • on public social spending, 154

      • right-wing governments and, 8

    • Crowe, C., 194

    • Cruz, C., 98

    • Cukierman, A., 194, 406n6

    • Currency unions, 274n8

    • Curristine, Teresa, 16, 407

      • on FCs, 401

    • Cyclically adjusted budget balance (CAB), FCs and, 408–9, 411–12, 413t

    • Cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB), 27, 27n4

      • exchange rates and, 285, 285n22

    • Dabla-Norris, E., 378

    • Database of Political Institutions (DPI), 98, 99, 99n11, 116, 118n17, 487, 500

      • checks and balances from, 218

      • corruption indicators in, 123n25

      • on political fragmentation, 217

      • on public debt, 216

    • Debrun, Xavier, 16, 328

      • on FCs, 405n4, 407n7

      • on Fiscal Council Dataset, 228n17

    • Debt. See Public debt

    • Debt rules (DR)

      • in BSL, 354

      • in emerging economies, 301, 307

      • fiscal noncompliance with, 307

      • in LICs, 64n4, 73n17

    • Debt-to-GDP ratio, 117, 119, 185

      • deficits and, 213

      • in EA, 448, 457f

      • in EU, 436

      • political fragmentation and, 226

    • Debt-to-GDP threshold, 226, 226n16

    • Debus, M., 97

    • Decentralization

      • in Canada, 30n8

      • in EA, 467

      • in Spain, 30n8, 347, 367n21

      • of taxes, 367n21

    • Deficit bias

      • asymmetric response to, 451, 451t

      • characterization of, 403–4

      • defined, 403n2

      • in EA, 450–52, 4511, 470t, 472t, 473t

      • elections and, 402–7

      • FCs for, 401, 405–7

      • government spending and, 126

      • incumbents and, 402, 406

      • partisanship and, 402

      • procyclicality and, 450–52

    • Deficit ceiling

      • in EA, 455

      • GDP and, 354

      • in Netherlands, 415–16, 416f

    • Deficit of legitimacy, of EU, 445

    • Deficits, 8n16

      • debt-to-GDP ratio and, 213

      • EDP and, 454, 458–62, 459t, 460f, 461t

      • ER and, 299–300

      • in EU, 101

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 358–59, 358f, 359f, 366f, 368f

      • in Great Recession, 182

      • minority governments and, 197

      • PBCs and, 112

      • political fragmentation and, 229

      • quantitative limits for, 400

      • SNGs and, 345

      • in Spain, 356n17

    • De Gramont, D., 263, 264

    • De Haan, J., 7n13, 9, 137n1

      • on budget institutions, 378

      • on central banks, 194n26

      • on political fragmentation, 198

    • Delgado-Téllez, Mar, 16

    • Democracy

      • of EU, 445

      • government spending and, 155n6

      • in Great Recession, 179–80

      • PBCs and, 7n13

      • public investment in, 111–32

      • See also Parliamentary systems; Presidential systems

    • Democratic Party, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and, 184–85

    • Demographics, wage bill and, 141t–142t, 142, 145

    • Deng Xiaoping, 255

    • Denmark

      • ER in, 306, 310

      • promise gaps in, 51

      • taxes in, 84n1

    • DeRouen, K., 96

    • Detken, C., 443

    • Developing economies

      • exchange rates of, 271n2

      • public debt in, 216–17, 217f

      • tipping points in, 241

    • Devereux, M., 84

    • Devries, P., 26, 27, 27n5, 39, 47

    • Difference-in Hansen test, 487

    • Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, of EC, 446

    • Direct taxes, in LICs, 67n9

    • Distribution, 5

    • Dobbins, J., 244

    • Domestic Stability Pact (DSP)

      • CGs and, 328

      • in Italy, 327–40, 333f, 334f

      • PBCs and, 333

    • Donald, S., 487–88

    • Downs, A., 3, 7n13

    • DPI. See Database of Political Institutions

    • DR. See Debt rules Draghi, Mario, 437

    • Drazen, A., 63n1, 96, 112, 113n4, 125, 127, 137n1, 328

      • on status quo changes, 244n1

      • on wage bill, 139

    • Dreher, A., 76n20, 96–97

      • on central banks, 194n26

      • on conditionality, 500

    • Driscoll, J., 119, 282, 285

    • DSP. See Domestic Stability Pact

    • Duttagupta, R., 274n8

    • EA. See Euro area Easterly, W., 217n5

    • Ebeke, Christian, 12–14, 72, 127

    • EC. See European Commission

    • ECB. See European Central Bank

    • ECF. See Extended Credit Facility

    • Eckhardt, S., 137n1, 139

    • Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN), 444, 445, 462, 469

    • Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), 17

      • fiscal rules of, 85, 454–55

      • Great Recession and, 465

    • Economic shocks

      • adjustment effort in, 352, 371

      • automatic stabilizers of, 10

      • bank bailouts for, 181n6

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 352–53, 360, 364, 364f

      • reforms in, 244n1

      • stimulus packages for, 180

      • taxes and, 96–97

      • See also Great Recession

    • Economides, G., 97

    • Edin, P.-A., 197, 198

    • EDP. See Excessive deficit procedure

    • EEC. See European Economic Community

    • EFF. See Extended Fund Facility

    • Ehrhart, H., 67, 70

    • Elections

      • adjustments after, 64

      • in advanced economies, 13, 140

      • capital spending and, 332, 332f

      • country characteristics of, 123, 124t

      • deficit bias and, 402–7

      • descriptive statistics for, 129t

      • in EA, 99

      • in emerging economies, 140

      • endogeneity for, 71–72, 72t, 125–26

      • ER and, 301, 312

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 369–71, 370f

      • fixed-term, 125, 125n29

      • government spending and, 13, 66n7, 111, 130n34

      • in Italy, 331

      • in LICs, 63–78, 79t

      • monetary policy and, 137n2

      • non-endogenous, 125, 125n28

      • PBCs and, 113n3, 214–15

      • political horizon and, 280

      • in presidential systems, 64, 64n3

      • promise gap and, 25, 25n2

      • public investment and, 111–12, 112n1, 113n4, 117–23, 120t–121t, 122f, 123n27

      • scrutiny of, 72–77

      • selection bias in, 64–65

      • wage bill and, 13, 137–51, 146t, 147t, 148t

      • See also Incumbents

    • Electoral College, 127

    • Electoral proximity. See Proximity factor

    • Elites

      • energy subsidies and, 154, 154n5, 155–56, 159–61

      • imperfect information of, 154

      • middle class and, 14

      • public social spending and, 154

      • taxes and, 15

    • Emerging economies

      • DR in, 301, 307

      • elections in, 140

      • ER in, 314

      • IMF and, 76n19

      • public debt in, 216, 217f

      • taxes in, 70

      • wage bill in, 13, 149

    • EMU. See Economic and Monetary Union

    • Endegnanew, Yehenew, 13

    • Endogeneity

      • BBR and, 73

      • conditionality and, 486

      • for elections, 71–72, 72t, 125–26

      • for energy subsidies, 167–69

      • for exchange rates, 285

      • GMM and, 452

      • OG and, 449

      • reverse causality and, 449

    • Energy subsidies, 13–14, 153–72

      • changes across regions for, 163f

      • countries in study for, 172t

      • by country, 164f

      • cross-sectional specification for, 166–67

      • crowding-out effect for, 154, 164, 166, 169, 171

      • econometric analysis for, 165–66

      • elites and, 154, 154n5, 155–56, 159–61

      • empirical analysis of, 161–71

      • endogeneity for, 167–69

      • energy demand and, 157n13

      • fragility index for, 162–63

      • GDP and, 153, 154, 163, 167, 168

      • IMF on, 154n4

      • intensity around globe, 173f

      • in MENA, 164, 174f

      • middle class and, 154, 156

      • political effectiveness and, 166, 169, 170t

      • price gap for, 161

      • SOEs and, 166

      • synthetic index of governance for, 162

      • taxes and, 160

      • utility function and, 156n8

      • VAT and, 155

      • welfare effect of, 153n3

    • EP. See European Parliament

    • ER. See Expenditure rules

    • Escolano, J., 32, 32n9

      • on public debt, 213n1

    • Eskelund, G., 352

    • Eslava, M., 112, 113n4, 328

      • on wage bill, 139

    • Estonia, taxes in, 84n1

    • EU. See European Union

    • Euler equation, 403

    • Euro area (EA)

      • centralization of, 468–69

      • common pool in, 441

      • debt-to-GDP ratio in, 448, 457f

      • decentralization in, 467

      • deficit bias in, 450–52, 451t, 470t, 472t, 473t

      • deficit ceiling in, 455

      • EDP in, 454, 458–62, 459t, 460f, 461t

      • elections in, 99

      • fiscal consolidation in, 445

      • fiscal discipline in, 465

      • fiscal noncompliance in, 454–58, 455 f,

      • 456f, 457f

      • fiscal politics in, 439–69

      • fiscal rules in, 17, 439, 454–58

      • GDP in, 458

      • government spending in, 452, 453f

      • no-bailout clause of, 466

      • OG in, 447–48, 447f

      • past reforms in, 462–64

      • policy biases in, 440–46

      • procyclicality in, 450–52, 451n15, 470t–471t, 473t

      • public investment in, 441, 452–54

      • sanctions in, 464–65

      • supranational fiscal policy in, 439

      • taxes in, 441–42, 452–54

      • VAT in, 85

    • European Central Bank (ECB), 437

      • monetary policy and, 442n3

      • Outright Monetary transactions Program of, 427

    • European Commission (EC), 463–64

      • Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs of, 446

      • fiscal rules of, 367–68, 444

      • Great Recession and, 445

      • reverse qualified majority rule for, 464

      • SCPs of, 27, 47, 101, 353, 408–9

      • Stability and Convergence Program of, 27, 47, 101, 353

    • European Economic Community (EEC), 251

    • European Parliament (EP), 442

      • ordinary legislative procedure of, 442n2

    • European Safe Bonds, 17

    • European Semester, 444

    • European Stability Mechanism, 467

    • European Union (EU)

      • Advisory Fiscal Board of, 400

      • bonds in, 443–44

      • CIT in, 105

      • common pool in, 443–44

      • Continental financial system in, 435–38

      • debt-to-GDP ratio in, 436

      • deficit of legitimacy of, 445

      • deficits in, 101

      • democracies of, 445

      • ER in, 305–6

      • FCs of, 409, 410f, 411f

      • fiscal rules in, 11n20, 73n15, 85, 444–45

      • fixed exchange rates in, 290–93, 290n27, 292f

      • PIT in, 105

      • Six Pack in, 100, 105

      • taxes in, 100–101, 105, 442

      • Two Pack in, 100, 105

      • VAT in, 83, 100, 105

      • See also Stability and Growth Pact

    • EUROSTAT, Annual Government Finance Statistics of, 140n3

    • Excessive deficit procedure (EDP), 454, 458–62, 459t, 460f, 461t

    • Exchange rates

      • of advanced economies, 271n2

      • CAPB and, 285, 285n22

      • by central banks, 275–77, 276n10

      • of developing economies, 271n2

      • dynamic approach to, 274

      • empirical analysis and data for, 279–85, 280t

      • endogeneity for, 285

      • fiscal discipline with, 15, 271–96

      • MCD for, 280n16

      • outliers for, 285

      • PCA for, 280n16

      • political cohesion for, 272, 274–75, 277–88, 279f

      • political horizon for, 273–85, 278f, 288

      • public debt and, 277–78

      • robustness tests for, 285–90, 286t, 287t, 288n24, 289t, 290t

      • sensitivity of, 285–90, 286t

      • traditional argument for, 273

      • See also Fixed exchange rates; Flexible exchange rates

    • Executive committee (giunta comunale), 329

    • Executive polarization, in political fragmentation, 217–18

    • Expenditure rules (ER), 15, 299–317

      • adoption and abandonment of, 305–6, 305f

      • in advanced economies, 301–3

      • in Australia, 306

      • BBR and, 301

      • in BSL, 354

      • of CGs, 256

      • in coalition governments, 300, 303, 305, 311

      • compliance with, 306, 307–11, 308f–310f

      • deficits and, 299–300

      • design features of, 304f

      • details by country, 319t–323t

      • elections and, 301, 312

      • in emerging economies, 314

      • GDP and, 309

      • government size and, 314–16, 315 f, 316f

      • for government spending, 300

      • Great Recession and, 306

      • index of, 312, 312n10

      • inflation and, 309

      • long-term sustainability and, 311–13, 312t, 313f

      • macroeconomic forecasting and, 299

      • in minority governments, 306

      • MTBF and, 316, 316f

      • panel regression analysis for, 318t

      • PBCs and, 300, 301

      • public investment and, 300, 313–14, 314f

      • reverse causality for, 311n9

      • types and design features of, 301–5, 302f, 304f

    • Extended Credit Facility (ECF), 494n23

    • Extended Fund Facility (EFF), 494n23

    • Eyraud, Luc, 17, 367

    • Falcó-Gimeno, A., 197

    • Fashola, Babatunde, 262–63

    • Fatás, A., 155, 272, 282

    • Favero, C., 94n5

    • Faye, M., 72

    • FCL. See Flexible Credit Line

    • FCs. See Fiscal councils

    • FD-GMM. See First-difference generalized method of moments

    • Federalist 30, 430

    • Federal Reserve, in U.S., 180

    • Fernández-Leiceaga, X., 347, 364

    • 15-month forecast error, promise gaps and, 33f

    • Filc, G., 378

    • Financial markets

      • fiscal discipline of, 26

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 368–69, 369f

    • Finland

      • ER in, 303, 306, 309

      • promise gaps in, 52

    • First-difference generalized method of moments (FD-GMM), 356, 361t–362t

    • Fiscal autonomy, fiscal noncompliance and, 352, 366–71, 368f

    • Fiscal balance, in LICs, 70–71, 70n12

    • Fiscal balance ceilings, MTOs and, 446n8, 450n13

    • Fiscal bias, fiscal rules for, 404–5

    • Fiscal centralization. See Centralization Fiscal Compact, MTOs and, 463

    • Fiscal consolidation

      • absolute frequency of, 28f

      • in advanced economies, 13, 27, 28t

      • debt sustainability and, 50, 85

      • in EA, 445

      • fiscal discipline and, 49

      • fiscal stress and, 32

      • GMM and, 452

      • in Great Recession, 473t

      • procyclicality and, 450

      • relative frequency of, 29f

      • taxes and, 94–95, 94n5, 94n6

    • Fiscal Council Dataset, of IMF, 228, 228n17

    • Fiscal councils (FCs), 11–12, 14–15, 16

      • accountability factor and, 401–7

      • in Belgium, 413, 418–22, 420f–422f

      • budget forecasts and, 416

      • budget process and, 413–22

      • CAB and, 408–9, 411–12, 413t

      • CDS and, 411 f

      • for deficit bias, 401, 405–7

      • effectiveness of, 401

      • ER of, 304

      • of EU, 409, 410f, 411f

      • fiscal discipline from, 11

      • fiscal rules and, 228n18, 406n4

      • forecast errors and, 411

      • Great Recession and, 399

      • media and, 16, 407–13, 412t

      • in Netherlands, 414–18

      • OG and, 409

      • political fragmentation and, 228

      • public debate and, 407–22

      • public debt and, 235t, 236t, 409

      • strength of, 235t

      • testable hypotheses for, 409

      • weakness of, 236t

    • Fiscal crises. See Economic shocks; Great Recession

    • Fiscal decentralization. See Decentralization

    • Fiscal deficits. See Deficits Fiscal discipline

      • in EA, 465

      • with exchange rates, 15, 271–96

      • from FCs, 11

      • of financial markets, 26

      • fiscal consolidation and, 49

      • from fiscal institutions, 11

      • fixed exchange rates and, 273

      • political strength and, 35

      • robustness tests of, 294t

    • Fiscal horizon, primary balance and, 283

    • Fiscal institutions

      • fiscal discipline from, 11

      • fiscal rules for, 400

      • political fragmentation and, 228

    • Fiscal noncompliance, 16

      • adjustment effort for, 365, 365n20

      • bailouts for, 350, 350n5

      • CGs and, 353, 353n12

      • conditionality and, 484

      • deficits and, 358–59, 358f, 359f, 366f, 368f

      • defined, 348

      • with DR, 307

      • in EA, 454–58, 455 f, 456f, 457f

      • economic shocks and, 352–53, 360, 364, 364f

      • elections and, 369–71, 370f

      • FD-GMM for, 356, 361t–362t

      • financial markets and, 368–69, 369f

      • fiscal autonomy and, 352, 366–71, 368f

      • fiscal stress and, 352–53

      • forecast errors and, 352–53, 353n11, 360, 360f, 360n18

      • gap-filling transfers for, 365–66

      • GDP and, 356, 356n16

      • GMM for, 356, 361t–362t, 368

      • inertial patterns for, 361t–363t, 364, 365f

      • intergovernmental fiscal arrangements and, 16, 350, 352, 372

      • no-bailout clause and, 349

      • overspending and, 350

      • problem of, 348–49, 349f

      • reverse causality for, 368n25

      • soft budget constraints and, 349–50, 350f

      • in Spain, 345–73, 373t, 374t

      • taxes and, 366–67

      • testable hypotheses for, 357, 357t

      • two-stage least square estimates of, 363t

    • Fiscal outlook, budget institutions and, 385, 386f, 387f, 396

    • Fiscal politics

      • cabinet ideology and, 7–9

      • in EA, 439–69

      • effects in, 5–10

      • influences on, 10–12

      • political fragmentation and, 9–10, 9n17

      • proximity factor and, 6–7

    • Fiscal reporting, 11, 379–80, 385

    • Fiscal risk management, 380, 385

    • Fiscal rules, 10–15

      • capital spending and, 330

      • country size and, 458–62, 459t, 460f, 461t

      • in EA, 17, 439, 454–58

      • of EC, 367–68, 444

      • of EMU, 85

      • of EU, 11n20, 73n15, 85, 444–45

      • FCs and, 228n18, 406n4

      • for fiscal bias, 404–5

      • for fiscal institutions, 400

      • in Italy, 327–40, 330t, 3411

      • for LICs, 64, 64n4, 73–75, 73n15, 73n16, 74t, 77n22

      • numerical fiscal limits in, 346 n4

      • in OECD, 100

      • for PBCs, 7n13, 327–40

      • political fragmentation and, 228n18

      • by SNGs, 15–16

      • for structural balances, 100

      • for taxes, 104

      • See also Balanced budget rules; Budget rules; Debt rules; Expenditure rules; Fiscal noncompliance

    • Fiscal space

      • in Great Recession, 178, 178n3, 185

      • in Italy, 331

    • Fiscal strategy, in budget institutions, 380–82, 386f–387f, 388–91, 389f–399f, 392f–393f, 396–97

    • Fiscal stress

      • fiscal consolidation and, 32

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 352–53

    • Fiscal watchdogs. See Fiscal councils

    • Fisher-type test, 488

    • Fiva, J. H., 112n1

    • Fixed exchange rates, 272–73

      • baselines for, 283, 283t

      • in EU, 290–93, 290n27, 292f

      • fiscal discipline and, 273

      • interaction terms for, 284, 284t

      • political cohesion for, 281 f

      • political horizon for, 281 f

    • Fixed-term elections, 125, 125n29

    • Fjeldstad, O.-H., 245

    • Flexible Credit Line (FCL), 494n23

    • Flexible exchange rates, 272–73, 274n7

      • political cohesion for, 281 f

      • political horizon for, 281 f

    • Forecast errors

      • by country, 415 f

      • FCs and, 411

      • 15-month, promise gaps and, 33f

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 352–53, 353n11, 360, 360f, 360n18

      • in Netherlands, 415

      • promise gaps and, 32

    • Forecasting, 380, 385

      • in advanced economies, 346

      • soft budget constraints and, 346

      • See also Budget forecasts; Macroeconomic forecasting

    • Foremny, D., 328

    • Forni, Lorenzo, 15–16

    • Fragility index, for energy subsidies, 162–63

    • France, promise gaps in, 52

    • Franco, Francisco, 251

    • Fritz, V., 243

    • Fuentes Quintana, Enrique, 251

    • Full employment, aggregate demand and, 8

    • G20, 195

      • Great Recession and, 383n9

    • Gagliarducci, S., 327, 339

    • Gali, J., 185

    • Game theory, 198

    • Gap-filling transfers, for fiscal

      • noncompliance, 365–66

    • Garber, Peter, 433–34

    • Gaspar, Vitor, 14–15, 14n22, 16–17, 443

      • on public debt, 213n1

      • on tax tipping points, 246

    • Gavin, M., 271–72

    • Gaviria, Cesar, 259

    • GDP

      • debt-to-GDP threshold, 226, 226n16

      • deficit ceiling and, 354

      • deficit-to-GDP ratio, 185

      • in EA, 458

      • energy subsidies and, 153, 154, 163, 167, 168

      • ER and, 309

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 356, 356n16

      • government spending and, 116n13

      • Great Recession and, 178

      • in Netherlands, 415

      • PFA and, 29

      • primary balances and, 30

      • procyclicality and, 147

      • promise gaps in, 26, 40

      • public debt and, 216, 222, 223

      • public investment and, 122

      • RFA and, 29

      • structural balances and, 30

      • taxes and, 482

      • tax tipping points and, 246, 246f, 247f

      • trade openness and, 500

      • VAT and, 103

      • wage bill and, 140, 144f, 145, 146–47,

      • 149t

      • World Economic Outlook on, 32n11

      • See also Debt-to-GDP ratio; Tax-to-GDP

    • GDP growth rate

      • in LICs, 66

      • taxes and, 93

      • wage bill and, 142, 147

    • GDP per capita

      • budget institutions and, 383

      • in Colombia, 260, 261 f

      • in Nigeria, 262

      • in OECD, 223n14

      • in Spain, 253, 253f

      • taxes and, 247

      • tax-to-GDP threshold and, 246, 246f

      • tipping points and, 241

    • Gehlbach, S., 84–85, 99n10

    • Generalized method of moments (GMM)

      • for conditionality, 486, 486n11, 487–88

      • endogeneity and, 452

      • FD-GMM, 356, 361t–362t fiscal consolidation and, 452

      • for fiscal noncompliance, 356, 361t–362t, 368

      • for OG, 449, 449n11

      • for public investment, 118–19, 119n21

      • system-GMM estimator, 68, 486–87, 486n11, 492, 494n21

    • Gérard, Marc, 16

    • Germany, promise gaps in, 52

    • GFS. See Government Finance Statistics

    • Giavazzi, F., 94n5

    • Gillingham, R., 153n3

    • Gini coefficient, IRFs and, 44

    • Girardi, A., 442

    • Giunta comunale (executive committee), 329

    • Global financial crisis. See Great Recession

    • Globalization

      • Great Recession and, 186

      • stimulus packages and, 191

    • GMM. See Generalized method of moments

    • Goderis, B., 262

    • Gollwitzer, S., 378

    • Golosov, G., 9n 17

    • Gordon, J., 245

    • Gorodnichenko, Y., 44, 193

    • Government

      • lending rate of, Great Recession and, 194

      • popularity of, promise gaps and, 40, 40n23, 41f–42f

      • size of, ER and, 314–16, 315f, 316f

    • See also Central governments; Coalition governments; Intergovernmental fiscal arrangements; Left-wing governments; Minority governments; Right-wing governments; Subnational governments

    • Government debt. See Public debt

    • Government Finance Statistics (GFS), of IMF, 140n3, 481

    • Government spending

      • aggregate demand and, 178

      • budget rules and, 118

      • by CGs, 114n8

      • common pool and, 441n1

      • deficit bias and, 126

      • democracies and, 155n6

      • in EA, 452, 453f

      • elections and, 13, 66n7, 111, 130n34

      • ER for, 300

      • fiscal rules for, 100

      • GDP and, 116n13

      • growth rate of, 116f

      • of left-wing governments, 113

      • OG and, 185

      • partisanship and, 113, 113n5

      • political fragmentation and, 229

      • public debt and, 217n5

      • public investment and, 130, 130t

      • quantitative limits for, 400

      • in Spain, 367n22

      • wage bill in, 137

      • See also Capital spending; Overspending; Public social spending

    • Granger, C. W. J., 45

    • Great Recession (global financial crisis)

      • autocratic regimes and, 179–80

      • central banks and, 194, 194n26

      • coalition governments and, 198

      • deficits in, 182

      • democracies in, 179–80

      • EC and, 445

      • EMU and, 465

      • ER and, 306

      • FCs and, 399

      • fiscal consolidation in, 473t

      • fiscal space in, 178, 178n3, 185

      • G20 and, 383n9

      • GDP and, 178

      • globalization and, 186

      • government lending rate and, 194

      • IMF and, 195

      • incumbents and, 179

      • international policy and, 195

      • left-wing governments in, 197

      • minority governments in, 197

      • monetary policy and, 193–94

      • OECD and, 182

      • outliers and, 202

      • parliamentary systems in, 197

      • PBCs and, 198–200

      • political constraints in, 177–202, 201 t, 203t–207t

      • political fragmentation in, 14, 198

      • presidential systems in, 197

      • stimulus packages for, 179–97, 183t, 187t–189t, 190f, 200, 202

      • in U.S., 184–85

    • Grembi, V., 327, 328, 331, 333

    • Griffith, R., 84

    • Grigoli, F., 315n14

    • Grilli, V., 9

    • Grotius, Hugo, 431

    • Gujarati, D., 485n10

    • Gunzinger, Fabian, 14

    • Gupta, Sanjeev, 12, 13, 13n21, 14, 16, 17

      • on energy subsidies, 155, 161, 162, 163

    • Gylfason, T., 262

    • Hallerberg, Mark, 13, 96, 99, 101

      • on budget institutions, 378

      • on ER, 300

    • Hamilton, Alexander, 17, 428–38

    • Hansen statistic, 487, 487n14

    • Hardin, G., 9n17

    • Harmonized Government Wage and Employment Data, of IMF, 140

    • Harris, Jason, 16, 407

      • on FCs, 401

    • Haver Analytics, 114

    • HCF. See High Council of Finance

    • Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC), 217n6, 223

    • Hendry, D., 44

    • Henisz, W. J., 184n12, 282–83

    • Hernández de Cos, P., 364

    • Hibbs, D., 7, 97

    • High Council of Finance (HCF), in Belgium, 413, 418–22, 420f–422f

    • HIPC. See Heavily Indebted Poor Countries

    • Hobbes, Thomas, 431

    • Horizon. See Political horizon

    • Horton, M., 182

    • Hsiao, C., 493–94

    • Hua Guofeng, 255

    • Human capital

      • public investment in, 113

      • public social spending and, 156n10

    • Hume, David, 431

    • Humphrey, T., 435

    • Hyde, S. D., 65, 75, 75n18, 127

    • Iceland, ER in, 306, 308, 309

    • ICRG. See International Country Risk Guide

    • Ideological approach, to PBCs, 112, 113

    • Ideology. See Cabinet ideology

    • IFS. See International Financial Statistics

    • Illera, R. M., 9

    • ILOSTAT of, of International Labour

    • Organization, 140n3

    • Ilzetzki, E., 178n3

    • IMF. See International Monetary Fund

    • Impulse-response functions (IRFs), for promise gaps, 43–45, 45 f, 46f

    • Inclusive politics, 243–44

    • Income tax. See Corporate income taxes; Personal income taxes

    • Incumbents

      • deficit bias and, 402, 406

      • Great Recession and, 179

      • in Italy, 331

      • reelection of, 63, 63n1

      • taxes and, 99

      • wage bill and, 145

    • Independent fiscal agency, 380, 385

    • India, 67n10

    • Indicative targets (IT), 478

    • Indirect taxes, in LICs, 67n9

    • Inertial patterns, for fiscal noncompliance, 361t–363t, 364, 365f

    • Inflation

      • ER and, 309

      • in LICs, 66

      • taxes and, 93

    • Institutions. See Budget institutions; Fiscal institutions; Political institutions

    • Intergovernmental fiscal arrangements, 380

      • budget forecasts and, 388

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 16, 350, 352, 372

      • public investment and, 11

    • International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), corruption guide of, 220, 500

    • International Financial Statistics (IFS), of IMF, 194, 194n25, 500

    • International Labour Organization

      • ILOSTAT of, 140n3

      • LABORSTA of, 140n3

    • International Monetary Fund (IMF)

      • advanced economies and, 76n19

      • balance of payments and, 480n5

      • conditionality of, 477–501, 478f, 479t, 480n5, 483f, 484f, 489t, 491t–493t, 496t, 498t, 501t

      • emerging economies and, 76n19

      • on energy subsidies, 154n4

      • Fiscal Council Dataset of, 228, 228n17

      • fiscal crises and, 96–97

      • GFS of, 140n3, 481

      • Great Recession and, 195

      • Harmonized Government Wage and Employment Data of, 140

      • IFS of, 194, 194n25, 500

      • LICs and, 65, 75–77, 75n18, 76n19, 76n20, 77n22, 80t

      • MONA of, 482, 500

      • PRGF of, 494n23

      • PRGT of, 66, 494n23

      • programs, 13, 17, 64–65, 72, 74t, 75–78, 80t, 85, 96–97, 102t, 104, 105, 106t, 107t, 108t, 187t, 188t, 191, 195, 196t, 198t, 201t, 203t, 204t, 477–501

      • revenue conditionality of, 17

      • taxes and, 477–501, 478f, 479t, 483f, 484f, 489t, 491t–493t, 498t, 501t

      • trade openness and, 76

      • See also World Economic Outlook

    • International policy, Great Recession and, 195

    • Ireland, promise gaps in, 53

    • IRFs. See Impulse-response functions

    • Israel, ER in, 311

    • Issing, Otmar, 444

    • IT. See Indicative targets

    • Italy

      • Budget Law of 2003

      • in, 330n4

      • capital spending in, 331–32, 331n7, 332f, 336f

      • DSP in, 327–40, 333f, 334f

      • elections in, 331

      • fiscal rules in, 327–40, 330t, 341t

      • fiscal space in, 331

      • incumbents in, 331

      • PBCs in, 327–40

      • promise gaps in, 53

      • RD in, 335–39, 335 f, 336f, 337t, 338f, 339t, 340t

    • Jalles, João Tovar, 12, 15

    • Japan

      • ER in, 306

      • promise gaps in, 53

    • Jaramillo, Laura, 14–15, 14n22

      • on tax tipping points, 246

    • Jensen, H., 404n5

    • Jinjarak, Y., 178n3

    • Johnsen, C., 9

      • on common pool, 215

    • Jones, B. F., 244

    • Jong-a-Pin, R. M., 200

    • Jonung, L., 415

    • Jordà, O., 43

    • Josephs, Tom, 16

    • Jurado, I., 197

    • Kaasch, A., 9

    • Kahneman, D., 244n1

    • Kammas, P., 97

    • Katsimi, M., 115n10, 130n34

    • Katz, J., 43

    • Keefer, P., 98

    • Keen, M., 155

    • Khemani, S., 67n10

    • Kincaid, Russell, 428

    • Kinda, Tidiane, 15

      • on Fiscal Council Dataset, 228n17

    • Kiser, E., 245

    • Klein, N., 112n1

    • Klomp, J., 7n13, 137n1

    • KOF. See Swiss Economic Institute

    • Kontopoulos, Y., 9

      • on political fragmentation, 198, 218

    • Kopits, G., 100n12

    • Kosovo, ER in, 306

    • Kraay, A., 119, 282, 285

    • Kraft, J., 9

    • Kuncic, A., 487

    • LABORSTA, of International Labour Organization, 140n3

    • Laeven, L., 96, 96n8

    • Lago-Peñas, S., 347, 364

    • Lagos State, Nigeria. See Nigeria

    • Laporte, B., 480

    • Larch, M., 11n20, 415

    • Leal, T., 347, 364

    • Left-wing governments, 7–8

      • deficits of, 8n16

      • government spending of, 113

      • in Great Recession, 197

      • taxes in, 8

      • VAT and, 13, 98

    • Legal capacity, property rights and, 245, 249, 249f, 260

    • Lehman Brothers, 177, 181, 193

    • Lending rate, of government, 194

    • Levi, M., 245

    • LICs. See Low-income countries

    • Likelihood ratio test

      • for promise gaps, 35n14

      • for sphericity, 280n15

    • Lithuania, ER in, 309–10

    • Litvack, J., 352

    • Liu, Estelle X., 13, 328

    • Lledó, Victor D., 16

    • Locke, John, 431

    • Lockwood, B., 84

      • on energy subsidies, 155

    • Log transformations, for tax-to-GDP ratio, 485n10

    • López Laborda, J., 347, 364

    • Low-income countries (LICs)

      • balance of payments of, 75n18

      • budget cycles in, 64–65, 68–69, 69t

      • budget institutions in, 377–97

      • centralization in, 394

      • descriptive statistics for, 79t

      • DR in, 64n4, 73n17

      • elections in, 63–78, 79t

      • fiscal balance in, 70–71, 70n12

      • fiscal rules for, 64, 64n4, 73–75, 73n15, 73n16, 74t, 77n22

      • IMF and, 65, 75–77, 75n18, 76n19, 76n20, 77n22, 80t

      • PFM for, 395

      • taxes in, 66, 67, 67n8, 67n9, 69–70, 478, 481 f

      • VAT in, 70n12

      • wage bill in, 13, 137–38, 137n1, 143, 143 f, 149

    • Lusinyan, L., 367

    • Luxembourg, ER in, 303, 306

    • Maastricht Treaty, 195

      • Belgium and, 419

      • ER and, 305–6

    • Macroeconomic forecasting, 380, 385

      • for CGs, 373

      • ER and, 299

      • in Netherlands, 415

      • for SNGs, 373

    • Maddala, G., 488

    • Mahon, J. E., 93, 96

    • Malesky, E. J., 99n10

    • Mao Zedong, 255

    • Margin of majority, in political fragmentation, 217

    • Marinov, N., 127

    • Masciandaro, D., 9

    • Maurel, M., 72

    • Mauro, P., 155

    • Mayor (sindaco), 329

    • McCallum, B., 404n5

    • McCrary, J., 335

    • MCD. See Minimum covariance determinant

    • Meade, E. E., 194

    • Media

      • in Belgium, 420–21, 421f

      • FCs and, 16, 407–13, 412t

      • in Netherlands, 416–18, 417f

    • Medium-term budgetary framework (MTBF), 395

      • in advanced economies, 314

      • CGs and, 380

      • ER and, 316, 316f

      • overspending and, 11

    • Medium-term objectives (MTOs), 446–47, 446n9

      • fiscal balance ceilings and, 446n8, 450n13

      • Fiscal Compact and, 463

      • public investment and, 452

      • by SGP, 450

    • Meltzer, A., 406n6

    • MENA. See Middle East and North Africa

    • Menocal, A. R., 243

    • Messina, G., 327

    • Middle class

      • elites and, 14

      • energy subsidies and, 154, 156

    • Middle East and North Africa (MENA), energy subsidies in, 164, 174f

    • Mihov, I., 155, 282

    • Mills, Z., 137n1, 139

    • Milner, H., 125, 126n33

    • Minimum covariance determinant (MCD), 36n18

      • for exchange rates, 280n16

    • Minimum tax-to-GDP threshold, 241

    • Ministry of Finance to the Economic and Financial Council (CPFF), in Spain, 355

    • Minority governments

      • budget forecasts of, 197

      • deficits and, 197

      • ER in, 306

      • in Great Recession, 197

      • political fragmentation and, 10, 113

    • MONA. See Monitoring and Fund Arrangements

    • Moncloa Pacts, 251–52

    • Monetary policy

      • ECB and, 442n3

      • elections and, 137n2

      • Great Recession and, 193–94

    • Monitoring and Fund Arrangements (MONA), of IMF, 482, 500

    • Moon, S., 480

    • Moore, M., 245

    • Morris, Robert, 430

    • Moser, C., 486n12

    • MTBF. See Medium-term budgetary framework

    • MTOs. See Medium-term objectives

    • Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 9, 12, 13, 13n21, 14, 15, 328

    • Müller, W. C., 26n2

    • Municipal council (consiglio comunale), 329

    • Muthoora, Priscilla, 15

    • Nannicini, T., 327, 328, 333, 339

    • National Elections across Democracy and Autocracy (NELDA), 64, 65, 125

    • Navik, J. G., 112n1

    • NELDA. See National Elections across Democracy and Autocracy

    • Netherlands

      • budget forecasts in, 416, 416f

      • Bureau for Economic Analysis in, 413, 414–18

      • coalition governments in, 415–16

      • CPB in, 414–18, 417f, 418f

      • deficit ceiling in, 415–16, 416f

      • ER in, 303, 306, 309

      • FCs in, 414–18

      • forecast errors in, 415

      • GDP in, 415

      • macroeconomic forecasting in, 415

      • media in, 416–18, 417f

      • promise gaps in, 54

    • New Tax Management Procedure, in Spain, 252

    • Ngouana, Constant Lonkeng, 13–14

    • Niehaus, P., 72

    • Nigeria

      • GDP per capita in, 262

      • taxes in, 262–64, 264f

      • tax-to-GDP threshold of, 242

    • No-bailout clause

      • of EA, 466

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 349

    • Noncompliance. See Fiscal noncompliance

    • Non-endogenous elections, 125, 125n28

    • Nordhaus, W., 112, 137n2

    • Nozaki, M., 161, 162, 163

    • Obama, Barack, 184

    • OECD. See Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

    • Office seekers, in partisanship, 26n2

    • OG. See Output gap

    • Ohlsson, H., 197, 198

    • Ölçer, Dilan, 12–13, 127

    • Old-age dependency ratio

      • veto players and, 223

      • from WDI, 218

    • Olden, Brian, 16

    • Olken, B. A., 244

    • OLS. See Ordinary least squares

    • Olson, M., 179

    • O’Mahony, A., 65, 75, 75n18

    • Opportunistic approach, to PBCs, 112–13, 139

    • Ordinary least squares (OLS)

      • for conditionality, 488

      • for energy subsidies, 154, 167

      • for public investment, 118

    • Ordinary legislative procedure, of EP, 442n2

    • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

      • banking crises in, 95–96

      • CIT in, 83, 84n1, 85, 86–88, 86f–87f 103, 104n19

      • on conditionality, 481

      • countries of, 85n5

      • fiscal crises in, 96–97

      • fiscal rules in, 100

      • GDP per capita in, 223n14

      • Great Recession and, 182

      • PIT in, 83, 84n1, 85, 88–90, 89f–90f 103, 104n18

      • promise gap and, 26

      • Revenue Statistics in Latin America of, 481

      • tax competition in, 95, 103

      • taxes in, 83–106, 84n1, 102t, 108t

      • VAT in, 83, 84n1, 85, 91–93, 91f–92f 103, 104n18

      • wage bill in, 139

    • Osterloh, S., 97

    • Ostrom, E., 465n25

    • Outliers

      • for exchange rates, 285

      • Great Recession and, 202

      • for PCA, 36n18

    • Output gap (OG), 33f

      • calculation of, 32n10

      • in EA, 447–48, 447f

      • endogeneity and, 449

      • FCs and, 409

      • GMM for, 449, 449n11

      • government spending and, 185

      • primary balance and, 311

      • promise gaps and, 32

      • stimulus packages for, 185

      • structural balance and, 449

    • Outright Monetary Transactions Program, of ECB, 427

    • Overfitting bias, 68

    • Overspending

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 350

    • MTBF and, 11

    • PBCs and, 333

    • Overspending incentives

      • bailouts and, 350, 351–52

      • common pool and, 352

    • PA. See Prior actions

    • Panel regression analysis

      • for ER, 318t

      • for fiscal noncompliance, 356

      • for promise gaps, 37–39, 38t–39t, 59–60, 60t

      • for public investment, 118–19

    • Panel unit root test, for public investment, 129, 129f

    • Paradisi, M., 327

    • Parliamentary polarization, in political fragmentation, 217–18

    • Parliamentary systems

      • budget institutions in, 381

      • in Great Recession, 197

      • public investment in, 111, 116, 118n16, 118n17, 125–27, 128t

      • See also Control of parliament

    • Partisanship

      • deficit bias and, 402

      • government spending and, 113, 113n5

      • office seekers in, 26n2

      • public policy and, 26n2

      • taxes and, 13

    • Passalacqua, A., 217

    • Pastrana, Andres, 260

    • PBCs. See Political business cycles

    • PCA. See Principal components analysis

    • Pedastsaar, Eliko, 16

    • Pérez, Javier J., 16

    • Performance-oriented budgeting, 380

    • Perotti, R., 9, 94, 94n6, 288

      • on exchange rates, 271–72

      • on political fragmentation, 198, 218

    • Personal income taxes (PIT)

      • conditionality and, 481 f, 485

      • in EU, 105

      • in left-wing governments, 98

      • in OECD, 83, 84n1, 85, 88–90, 89f– 90f, 103, 104n18

      • in right-wing governments, 98

      • tax competition for, 103

    • Persson, T., 3–4, 3n3, 7n13, 9n17, 241

    • Peru

      • economic shocks and, 244n1

      • ER in, 305

    • PFA. See Planned fiscal adjustment

    • PFM. See Public financial management

    • Pina, A., 200

    • PIT. See Personal income taxes

    • Planned fiscal adjustment (PFA), 29

    • Plante, M., 155

    • PLL. See Precautionary and Liquidity Line

    • Pluralism, inclusive politics and, 243–44

    • Poghosyan, Tigran, 17

    • Political accountability. See Accountability

    • Political business cycles (PBCs), 112–13

      • in advanced economies, 7n13, 63

      • capital spending and, 16, 331

      • checks and balances in, 7n13, 192n22

      • democracies and, 7n13

      • DSP and, 333

      • elections and, 113n3, 214–15

      • ER and, 300, 301

      • fiscal rules for, 327–40

      • Great Recession and, 198–200

      • in Italy, 327–40

      • opportunistic approach to, 139

      • overspending and, 333

      • Political cohesion

      • control of parliament and, 280

      • for exchange rates, 272, 274–75, 277–88, 279f

      • for fixed exchange rates, 281 f

      • for flexible exchange rates, 281 f

      • primary balance and, 283

      • public debt and, 278, 279f

      • variables for, 280–82

    • Political constraints, in Great Recession, 177–202, 201t, 203t–207t Political division. See Political fragmentation

    • Political effectiveness

      • energy subsidies and, 166, 169, 170t

      • public social spending and, 166, 169, 170t

    • Political fragility, 13–14

    • Political fragmentation

      • asymmetry of, 229

      • common pool and, 214, 217–18, 222, 230t

      • corruption and, 223

      • debt-to-GDP ratio and, 226

      • deficits and, 229

      • exchange rates and, 273

      • FCs and, 228

      • fiscal institutions and, 228

      • fiscal politics and, 9–10, 9n17

      • fiscal rules and, 228n18

      • government spending and, 229

      • in Great Recession, 14, 198

      • indicators of, 219f

      • minority governments and, 10, 113

      • promise gap and, 25, 25n2

      • public debt and, 213–29, 213n1, 219f

      • public investment and, 13n21

      • robustness tests for, 222–28

      • taxes and, 98–99

      • veto players and, 98, 214, 218, 222, 223t, 231t

    • Political horizon

      • elections and, 280

      • for exchange rates, 273–85, 278f, 288

      • for fixed exchange rates, 281 f

      • for flexible exchange rates, 281 f

      • public debt and, 278, 278f

      • variables for, 280–82

    • Political institutions, 241–65

      • for state building, 243–45, 243f

      • for taxes, 243–45, 245 f

      • See also Budget institutions; Fiscal institutions

    • Political strength, 26, 35

    • POLITY IV, 127

    • Population growth, wage bill and, 147

    • Pork-barrel spending, 215

    • Porteba, J. M., 100n13, 180

    • Porter, D., 485n10

    • Portugal, promise gaps in, 54–55

    • Posner, P., 245

    • Postlethwaite, Malachy, 431

    • Potrafke, N., 115n10

    • Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility

    • (PRGF), 494n23

    • Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT), 66, 494n23

    • Prakash, T., 378

    • Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL), 494n23

    • Presidential systems

      • elections in, 64, 64n3

      • in Great Recession, 197

      • public investment in, 111, 116, 118n16, 118n17, 125–27

    • PRGF. See Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility

    • PRGT. See Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust

    • Price, Richard, 431

    • Price gap, for energy subsidies, 161

    • Primary balance

      • fiscal horizon and, 283

      • fiscal rules for, 100

      • GDP and, 30

      • OG and, 311

      • political cohesion and, 283

      • See also Cyclically adjusted primary balance

    • Principal components analysis (PCA)

      • for exchange rates, 280n16

      • for promise gaps, 32–37, 36n18, 39n21

    • Prior actions (PA), 478

    • Private sector, right-wing governments and, 8–9

    • Procyclicality, 447–50, 448n10, 449t, 470t–471t, 473t

      • deficit bias and, 450–52

      • fiscal consolidation and, 450

      • GDP and, 147

      • OG and, 451n15

    • Program countries. See International Monetary Fund programs

    • Promise gaps

      • accountability factor for, 34f, 35–37, 36t, 39n21

      • consequences of, 40–45, 59–60, 60t

      • defined, 27–30

      • determinants of, 32–39, 57t–59f

      • economic and political factors for, 33f, 37–39, 38t–39t

      • elections and, 25, 25n2

      • 15-month forecast error and, 33f

      • forecast errors and, 32

      • government popularity and, 40, 40n23, 41f–42f

      • IRFs for, 43–45, 45 f, 46f

      • likelihood ratio test for, 35n14

      • measurement of, 29–30

      • OG and, 32

      • panel regression analysis for, 37–39, 38t–39t, 59–60, 60t

    • PCA for, 32–37, 36n18, 39n21

    • political conditions for, 34f, 36t

    • political fragmentation and, 25, 25n2

    • political strength and, 35

    • proximity factor for, 34f, 35–37, 36t, 39n21

    • public debt and, 33f

    • sample selection for, 47–60

    • size of, 30f 31f 33f 34f

    • strength factor for, 34f, 35–37, 36t, 39n21

    • structural balances and, 30

    • styled facts for, 32

    • sustainability factor and, 33f

    • Property rights

      • legal capacity and, 245, 249, 249f, 260

      • protection of, 3n3, 260

    • Proximity factor

      • budget cycles and, 6, 7n13

      • fiscal politics and, 6–7

      • for promise gaps, 34f, 35–37, 36t, 39n21

    • Public Choice school, 5

    • Public debt

      • in advanced economies, 216–17, 217f, 218

      • in Belgium, 419

      • checks and balances for, 224

      • common pool and, 214, 222, 223t, 230t

      • control of parliament and, 223

      • corruption and, 223, 224t, 232t

      • debt ceilings on, 216

      • decreases in, 227t

      • in developing economies, 216–17, 217f

      • in emerging economies, 216–17, 217f

      • empirical model and data on, 215–20, 220t

      • exchange rates and, 277–78

      • FCs and, 235t, 236t, 409

      • fiscal rules for, 100

      • GDP and, 216, 222, 223

      • government spending and, 217n5

      • high level of, 234t

      • increases in, 233t

      • indicators of, 219f

      • political cohesion and, 278, 279f

      • political fragmentation and, 213–29, 213n1, 219f

      • political horizon and, 278, 278f

      • promise gaps and, 33f

      • proximity factor and, 6–7

      • quantitative limits for, 400

      • reverse causality for, 216

      • taxes and, 94

      • in U.S., 427–38

      • veto players and, 10, 214, 215, 222, 223t, 231t

      • wage bill and, 143, 147

    • Public debt sustainability

      • in Belgium, 50

      • fiscal consolidation and, 50, 85

      • taxes and, 94

    • Public expenditures. See Government spending

    • Public finance theory, taxes in, 93

    • Public financial management (PFM), 316

      • for LICs, 395

      • reform strategy for, 394

    • Public investment, 13n21, 114n7, 115n10

      • in advanced economies, 123

      • aggregate demand from, 111

      • allocation for, 123n27

      • capital spending and, 130, 130t

      • country characteristics of, 123, 124t

      • in democracies, 111–32

      • descriptive statistics for, 129t

      • in EA, 441, 452–54

      • elections and, 111–12, 112n1, 113n4, 117–23, 120t–121t, 122f, 123n27

      • ER and, 300, 313–14, 314f

      • GDP and, 122

      • GMM for, 118–19, 119n21

      • government spending and, 130, 130t

      • growth rate of, 115–16, 115f, 116f

      • in human capital, 113

      • intergovernmental fiscal arrangements and, 11

      • MTOs and, 452

      • panel unit root test for, 129, 129f

      • in parliamentary systems, 111, 116, 118n16, 118n17, 125–27, 128t

      • in presidential systems, 111, 116, 118n16, 118n17, 125–27

    • Public policy, partisanship and, 26n2

    • Public revenue. See Taxes

    • Public social spending, 14, 153–72

      • changes across regions for, 163f

      • corruption and, 158

      • countries in study for, 172t

      • crowding-out effect on, 154

      • elites and, 154

      • human capital and, 156n10

      • optimal choice for, 159

      • political effectiveness and, 166, 169, 170t

    • Public spending. See Government spending

    • Pufendorf, Samuel, 431

    • QPC. See Quantitative performance criteria

    • Quantitative Easing programs, 200

    • Quantitative performance criteria (QPC), 478

    • Rational voters, 214–15

      • balanced budget rule and, 406

    • RD. See Regression discontinuity analysis

    • Realized fiscal adjustment (RFA), 29

    • Redistribution, cabinet ideology and, 8

    • Redoano, M., 84

    • Reelection, of incumbents, 63, 63n1

    • Regression discontinuity analysis (RD), in Italy, 335–39, 335f, 336f, 337t, 338f, 339t, 340t

    • Reinhart, C. M., 288

    • Reuter, W., 346n4

    • Revenue. See Taxes

    • Revenue conditionality, of IMF, 17

    • Revenue Statistics in Latin America, of OECD, 481

    • Reverse causality

      • endogeneity and, 449

      • for ER, 311n9

      • for fiscal noncompliance, 368n25

      • for public debt, 216

    • Reverse qualified majority rule, for EC, 464

    • RFA. See Realized fiscal adjustment

    • Riedel, N., 328

    • Right-wing governments

      • crowding-out effect and, 8

      • deficits of, 8n16

      • private sector and, 8–9

      • taxes in, 8–9, 98

    • Robinson, J., 243

    • Robustness tests

      • for conditionality, 480, 494–98

      • for endogeneity of elections, 125–26

      • for exchange rates, 285–90, 286t, 287t, 289t, 290t

      • of fiscal discipline, 294t

      • for political fragmentation, 222–28

    • Rodden, J., 352

    • Rodrik, D., 485

    • Rogoff, K., 112, 119, 123, 288, 406n6

    • Romer, C. D., 27, 27n5, 181, 185

    • Romer, D. H., 27, 27n5

    • Rose, A. K., 272

    • Rose, S., 64

    • Ross, M. L., 245

    • Roubini, N., 9, 198

    • Rousseau, Pierre, 431–32

    • Rousseeuw, P. J., 36n18, 280n16, 282n19

    • Rubio, Guillermo Perry, 259

    • Rules (institutional) approach, to PBCs, 112, 113

    • Sachs, J. D., 9, 198

    • Samper, Ernesto, 260

    • Sanctions

      • common pool and, 465n25

      • in EA, 464–65

    • Sarantides, V., 115n10, 130n34

    • Sargent, Thomas, 17, 428, 438

    • SAT. See State Administration of Taxation

    • SB. See Structural benchmarks

    • SBA. See Standby Arrangements

    • Scartascini, C., 96, 98

      • on budget institutions, 378

    • SCF. See Standby Credit Facility

    • Schaechter, A., 100n12

      • on ER, 300

    • Schena, Michela, 12

    • Schuknecht, L., 137n1, 139

    • Schumpeter, Joseph, 3, 3n2, 241

    • SCM. See Synthetic control methodology

    • SCPs. See Stability and Convergence Program

    • Seiwald, Johann, 16, 407

      • on FCs, 401

    • Seki, K., 218

    • Selection bias

      • conditionality and, 486–87

      • in elections, 64–65

    • Sensitivity, 450

      • of exchange rates, 285–90, 286t

    • Seton, William, 434, 435

    • SGP. See Stability and Growth Pact

    • Shepsle, K. A., 9

      • on common pool, 215

    • Shi, M., 70n12, 137n1

    • Sibert, A., 406n6

    • Sindaco (mayor), 329

    • Sinking Fund, 434

    • Six Pack, in EU, 100, 105

    • Smith, Adam, 3–4, 3n3, 431

    • SNGs. See Subnational governments

    • Social spending. See Public social spending

    • SOEs. See State-owned enterprises

    • Soft budget constraints

      • for CGs, 345

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 349–50, 350f

      • forecasting and, 346

      • for SNGs, 345

    • Solow, R. M., 10

    • Soto, Mauricio, 13

    • Spain

      • Autonomous Communities in, 347

      • BSL in, 353–55, 355n13

      • CPFF in, 355

      • decentralization in, 30n8, 347, 367n21

      • deficits in, 356n17

      • fiscal noncompliance in, 345–73, 373t, 374t

      • GDP per capita in, 253, 253f

      • government spending in, 367n22

      • promise gaps in, 55

      • SCM in, 291–93, 292f

      • taxes in, 251–54, 253f, 254f, 254t

      • VAT in, 252

    • Spence, Michael, 244

    • Spending. See Capital spending;

      • Government spending;

      • Overspending; Public social

      • spending

    • Sphericity, likelihood ratio test for, 280n15

    • Spolaore, E., 180

    • Stability and Convergence Program (SCPs), of European Commission, 27, 47, 101, 353, 408–9

    • Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), 83, 195, 226n16, 346, 417, 444, 446–57

      • MTOs by, 450

      • past reforms in, 462–64, 463

    • Stabilization, 5, 5n5

    • Standby Arrangements (SBA), 494n23

    • Standby Credit Facility (SCF), 494n23

    • Starke, P., 9

    • State Administration of Taxation (SAT), in China, 256–57

    • State building

      • political institutions for, 243–45, 243f

      • tipping points and, 246–49

    • State-owned enterprises (SOEs)

      • bailouts of, 166

      • in China, 242, 255–56

      • energy subsidies and, 166

    • Status quo

      • changes to, 244n1

      • veto players and, 10, 14, 215

    • Stein, E., 97

    • Steinwand, M., 486n12

    • Stephan, A., 197

    • Stimulus packages

      • for economic shocks, 180

      • globalization and, 191

      • for Great Recession, 179–97, 183t, 187t–189t, 190f, 200, 202

      • for OG, 185

      • trade openness and, 178n3

    • Stock, J., 488

    • Stone, R., 486n12

    • Strand, J., 155

    • Strauch, R. R., 94, 94n6

      • on ER, 300

    • Streb, J. M., 192n22

    • Strength factor, for promise gaps, 34f, 35–37, 36t, 39n21

    • Strom, K., 26n2

    • Structural balances

      • fiscal rules for, 100

      • GDP and, 30

      • OG and, 449

      • promise gaps and, 30

    • Structural benchmarks (SB), 478, 483

    • Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 14, 486n12

      • on central banks, 194n26

      • on coalition governments, 198

    • Subnational governments (SNGs)

      • bailouts for, 349n7

      • deficits and, 345

      • fiscal rules by, 15–16

      • macroeconomic forecasting for, 373

      • soft budget constraints for, 345

    • Summers, Larry, 185

    • Sun, Y., 272, 274, 275

    • Supranational fiscal policy, 16–17

      • in EA, 439

    • Sustainability factor

      • defined, 32n9

      • promise gaps and, 32n9, 33f

      • See also Public debt sustainability

    • Svensson, J., 70n12, 137n1

    • Sweden

      • ER in, 303, 306, 310

      • promise gaps in, 55–56

    • Swiss Economic Institute (KOF), 194n26

      • Globalization Index of, 186, 191, 191n21, 195, 487

    • Sy, A., 262

    • Sylla, Richard, 428, 431–32, 433, 435

    • Symansky, S. A., 100n12

    • Synthetic control methodology (SCM), 291, 292f, 295–96, 295f

    • Synthetic index of governance, for energy subsidies, 162

    • System-GMM estimator, 68, 486–87, 486n11, 492, 494n21

    • Tabellini, G., 7n13, 9, 9n17

      • on FCs, 402

    • Tavares, José, 9, 15, 288

    • Taxes

      • balanced budget rule and, 102t

      • banking crises and, 95–96, 96n8

      • centralization of, 256

      • in China, 254–57, 258f

      • in Colombia, 259–60, 261f

      • common pool and, 215, 441 n1

      • competition with, in OECD, 95, 103

      • conditionality for, 477–501, 478f, 479t, 483f, 484f, 489t, 491t–493t, 496t, 498t, 501t

      • crisis mode for, 95–97, 103–4

      • debt sustainability and, 94

      • decentralization of, 367n21

      • in EA, 441–42, 452–54

      • elites and, 15

      • in emerging economies, 70

      • energy subsidies and, 160

      • in EU, 100–101, 105, 107t, 442

      • fiscal consolidation and, 94–95, 94n5, 94n6

      • fiscal crises and, 96–97

      • fiscal noncompliance and, 366–67

      • fiscal rules for, 104

      • GDP and, 482

      • GDP growth rate and, 93

      • GDP per capita and, 247

      • incumbents and, 99

      • inflation and, 93

      • in left-wing governments, 8

      • in LICs, 66, 67, 67n8, 67n9, 69–70, 478, 481 f

      • in Nigeria, 262–64, 264f

      • in OECD, 83–106, 84n1, 102t, 106t, 108t

      • partisanship and, 13

      • political determinants of, 97–99, 104

      • political fragmentation and, 98–99

      • political institutions for, 243–45, 245 f

      • public debt and, 94

      • in public finance theory, 93

      • revenue volatility of, 248f

      • in right-wing governments, 8–9, 98

      • in Spain, 251–54, 253f, 254f, 254t

      • tipping points for, 241–42, 246–49, 246f, 247f, 248f

      • in U.S., 98

      • wage bill and, 97

      • See also Corporate income taxes; Personal income taxes; Value-added taxes

    • Tax state, 3, 3n2

    • Tax-to-GDP-growth, tipping point for, 14–15

    • Tax-to-GDP ratio, 479

      • in China, 256, 257

      • conditionality and, 496

      • log transformations for, 485n10

    • Tax-to-GDP threshold

      • countries crossing, 266t

      • GDP per capita and, 246, 246f

      • tipping points and, 241–42

    • Teräsvirta, T., 45

    • Ter-Minassian, T., 352

    • Thornton, H., 435

    • Time inconsistency problem, 441

    • Tinubu, Bola, 262–63

    • Tipping points

      • in advanced economies, 241

      • in developing economies, 241

      • GDP per capita and, 241

      • state building and, 246–49

      • for taxes, 241–42, 246–49, 246f, 247f, 248f

      • for tax-to-GDP-growth, 14–15

      • tax-to-GDP threshold and, 241–42

    • Tolosa, G., 274n8

    • Tommasino, P., 327

    • Torgler, B., 245

    • Tornell, A., 272, 274, 274n7, 275, 281

    • Torvik, R., 262

    • Trade and Development Report, of UNCTAD, 177

    • Trade openness, 165, 295

      • conditionality and, 485

      • GDP and, 500

      • IMF and, 76

      • measurement of, 220

      • stimulus packages and, 178n3

    • Transparency International, corruption index of, 485–86

    • Trebesch, Christoph, 432, 436

    • Troiano, U., 327, 328, 333

    • Tsebelis, G., 98

    • Tversky, A., 244n1

    • Two Pack, in EU, 100, 105

    • UCD. See Unión de Centro Democrático

    • UNCTAD, 182

      • Trade and Development Report of, 177

    • Unión de Centro Democrático (UCD), 251–52

    • United Kingdom, promise gaps in, 56

    • United Nations, World Population Prospects of, 140

    • United States (U.S.)

      • bonds in, 17, 429

      • Continental financial system in, 427–35

      • ER in, 306, 308, 311

      • Federal Reserve in, 180

      • Great Recession in, 184–85

      • promise gaps in, 56–57

      • public debt in, 427–38

      • taxes in, 98

    • Urgent Tax Reform Measures, in Spain, 252

    • U.S. See United States

    • Utility function, energy subsidies and, 156n8

    • Valencia, F., 96, 96n8

    • Value-added taxes (VAT)

      • CGs and, 256

      • in China, 256, 257

      • in Colombia, 259–360

      • conditionality and, 481 f, 485, 488

      • in EA, 85

      • energy subsidies and, 155

      • in EU, 83, 100, 105

      • GDP and, 103

      • in left-wing governments, 13, 98

      • in LICs, 70n12

      • in OECD, 83, 84n1, 85, 91–93, 91f– 92f, 103, 104n18

      • as regressive, 97–98

      • in right-wing governments, 98

      • in Spain, 252

      • tax competition for, 103

    • Van den Noord, P., 99

    • Van Driessen, K., 36n18, 280n16

    • Van Eden, Holger, 16

    • Van Hooren, F., 9

    • Vaquero, A., 347, 364

    • VAR. See Vector autoregression

    • VAT. See Value-added taxes

    • Vaubel, R., 76n20

    • Vector autoregression (VAR), 43–45

    • Veiga, F., 113n4, 328

    • Veiga, L., 113n4, 328

    • Velasco, A., 272, 274, 274n7, 275, 281

    • Venes, N. M., 200

    • Venezuela, economic shocks and, 244n1

    • Verdier, Geneviève, 13

    • Vergne, C., 72

    • Vertical fiscal imbalances (VFIs), 352, 366–67, 367n23

    • Veto players, 99n10

      • checks and balances and, 218

      • legislative periods and, 221t

      • old-age dependency ratio and, 223

      • political fragmentation and, 98, 214, 218, 222, 223t, 231t

      • public debt and, 214, 215, 222, 223t, 231t

      • status quo and, 10, 14, 215

    • VFIs. See Vertical fiscal imbalances

    • Volverink, B., 9

    • Von Hagen, Jürgen, 13, 94, 94n6, 99

      • on ER, 300

    • Wage bill

      • in advanced economies, 149

      • capital spending and, 139

      • consumption multiplier with, 139

      • cross-country variation in, 143–45, 143f

      • data on, 140–3, 140n3, 141t–142t

      • demographics and, 141t–142t, 142, 145

      • elections and, 13, 137–49, 146t, 147t, 148t

      • in emerging economies, 13, 151

      • GDP and, 140, 144f, 145, 146–7, 149t

      • GDP growth rate and, 142, 147

      • in government spending, 137

      • incumbents and, 145

      • in LICs, 13, 137–38, 137n1, 143, 143f, 149

      • in OECD, 139

      • population growth and, 147

      • public debt and, 143, 147

      • taxes and, 97

      • working-age population and, 140, 142t, 146n4, 148–9

    • Wagner, R. E., 5

    • Wagner’s law, 144

    • Wallace-Wells, B., 185

    • Wälti, S., 96

    • Warlters, M., 485n10

    • Washington Consensus, 244n1

    • WDI. See World Development Indicators

    • Weber, Anke, 15

    • Weingast, B. R., 9

      • on common pool, 215

    • Weise, C. L., 180

    • WEO. See World Economic Outlook

    • West African Economic and Monetary Union, fiscal rules in, 73n15

    • Weyland, K., 244n1

    • Williams, L. K., 218

    • Windmeijer, F., 68

    • Wingender, Philippe, 14–15, 14n22

      • on tax tipping points, 246

    • Winkler, B., 443

    • Working-age population, wage bill and, 140, 142t, 146n4, 148–49

    • World Bank

      • corruption indicators of, 223

      • See also Database of Political Institutions; World Development Indicators

    • World Development Indicators (WDI), 66, 114, 118n19

      • on conditionality, 500

      • on energy subsidies, 162

      • old-age dependency ratio from, 218

    • World Economic Outlook (WEO), 114, 140n3

      • on conditionality, 481

      • on expenditure rule compliance, 307

      • on fiscal space, 185

      • on GDP, 32n11

      • on Great Recession, 182

      • for LICs, 66

      • on wage bill, 140

    • World Economic Yearbook, 127

    • World Governance Indicators, of World Bank, 162

    • World Population Prospects, of United Nations, 140

    • World Trade Organization, 256

    • World Values Survey, 253

      • on China, 257

      • on Colombia, 260

    • Wren-Lewis, S., 401, 413

    • Wright, Robert, 431, 435

    • Wu, S., 488

    • Yläoutinen, Sami, 16

      • on budget institutions, 378

      • on ER, 300

    • Yogo, M., 488

    • Yohai, V. J., 282, 282n19

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