Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Paul Cashin, and Rahul Anand
Published Date:
February 2016
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    Contributors

    Rahul Anand is Assistant to the Director in the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development. Prior to this, he worked in the African Department and the Asia and Pacific Department, covering South Africa, India, and Sri Lanka. His research spans a range of areas, including general equilibrium modeling to study monetary policy issues in emerging markets, macro-critical structural reforms, subsidy reforms, and growth-enhancing structural transformation. He has published widely, including in the Journal of Monetary Economics, and his research has also featured in The Economist, the Financial Times, and the Wall Street Journal. Before joining the IMF in 2010, he held various senior positions in India as a member of the Indian Administrative Service—designing, implementing, and monitoring government economic programs and policies. He has a PhD from Cornell University and a master’s degree from Harvard University.

    Paul Cashin is Assistant Director in the Asia and Pacific Department and Mission Chief for India. Prior to this, he worked in the IMF’s Research Department, on issues related to developing countries; in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, where he was Chief of the Caribbean Division and Mission Chief to the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent; and in the Middle East and Central Asia Department, where he was Chief of the Regional Studies Division and Mission Chief to Jordan. Before joining the IMF, Mr. Cashin was Principal Research Economist at the Ministry of Agriculture in Victoria, Australia, and Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Melbourne, Australia. Mr. Cashin has published widely in several fields of economics, including macroeconomic modeling, commodity prices and exchange rates, international economics, and economic development. He obtained his PhD and an MA in Economics from Yale University, and holds an MAgrSc in Agricultural Economics and a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Melbourne in Australia.

    Sonali Das is an Economist in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, covering India and Nepal. Prior to this, she was in the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, where her responsibilities included working on the IMF program with Pakistan. Ms. Das received her PhD in Economics from Cornell University in 2012 and holds an MA from McGill University and a BSc from the University of Toronto. During the course of her doctoral studies she was a visiting fellow at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a research associate at the Brookings Institution, and a summer intern at the IMF. Her research interests include banking, financial stability, and financial development.

    Roberto Guimarães is a Deputy Division Chief in the Regional Studies Division of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department. He has worked on a number of countries, including covering financial sector issues in Mexico and Argentina, and on IMF surveillance teams covering India, Malaysia, Singapore, Costa Rica, and Panama. He has also led IMF missions to Bhutan and Fiji. Mr. Guimarães has published in Economics Letters, Economics Bulletin, Applied Financial Economics, Finance & Development, as well as IMF working papers and Occasional Papers. He has worked on a range of policy issues in international finance and macroeconomics, including capital flows, foreign exchange intervention, and monetary policy. He holds a PhD in economics and an MSc in Statistics.

    Naresh Kumar is currently a Research Analyst in the IMF’s African Department. Previously, he worked on India at the IMF office in Delhi and on Latin American countries while in the private sector. He joined the IMF in 2009. He is an Indian national and has a master’s and a bachelor’s degree in Economics from Delhi University. He has published on growth and inequality, labor market issues, and inflation in India. His research interests are in monetary policy in low-income countries, trade, structural issues, inequality, and labor market issues.

    Kamiar Mohaddes is a Senior Lecturer and Fellow in Economics at Girton College, University of Cambridge. He is also a member of the Economic Research Forum (ERF) advisory committee, an ERF Research Fellow, and an associate researcher at the Energy Policy Research Group (EPRG), University of Cambridge. He holds a BSc in Economics from the University of Warwick and an MPhil and a PhD in Economics from the University of Cambridge. His main areas of research are macroeconomics, global and national macroeconometric modeling, and energy economics. His articles have been published in a number of edited volumes (Cambridge University Press and Routledge) as well as in leading journals, including the Journal of Applied Econometrics and Energy Economics.

    Adil Mohommad joined the IMF as an Economist in 2011. He currently works in the Asia and Pacific Department on Australia and New Zealand, and previously also worked on Nepal and Bhutan. His research includes work on trade, institutions, productivity, and growth. He received his BA from Delhi University, MA from Delhi School of Economics, and his PhD from the University of Maryland in 2010.

    Prachi Mishra is on leave from the IMF as Specialist Adviser (equivalent to Chief General Manager) in the Department of Economic and Policy Research at the Reserve Bank of India. Prior to that, she was Senior Economist in the Office of Chief Economic Advisor in the Ministry of Finance, and at the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council in the Government of India; and Senior Economist at the IMF. At the IMF, she has worked for the Monetary and Capital Markets, Research, Western Hemisphere, and Fiscal Affairs Departments, and in the office of the First Deputy Managing Director. She received a PhD in Economics from Columbia University in 2004, and a master’s degree from the Delhi School of Economics in 1999.

    Yasuhisa Ojima is a Senior Economist in the Asia and Pacific Department and Mission Chief for Tonga. Prior to joining the IMF, he was a Director in the Credit Risk Analysis division at the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and a Resident Representative for the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Vietnam. He has published several textbooks and articles in the field of international and development economics and taught at Waseda University in Tokyo. Mr. Ojima holds degrees from Yale University and Keio University.

    Laura Papi is Assistant Director in the African Department of the International Monetary Fund, heading the Southern 2 Division, and IMF Mission Chief for South Africa. She has worked on a broad range of emerging market countries: immediately before South Africa, she was IMF Mission Chief for India, and before that she covered Brazil, China, Malaysia, and Mexico. Previously she worked as Associate Director at Deutsche Bank, London, in Emerging Market Research concentrating on Turkey and Emerging Europe (1997–2000). She has a PhD from the University of Warwick (UK).

    Mehdi Raissi is an economist in the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF. Mr. Raissi joined the IMF in 2010 and worked in the Middle East and Central Asia Department, as well as in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department on several multilateral surveillance issues and a range of surveillance and program countries. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Cambridge. His main areas of research are global and national macroeconometric modeling, cross-country spillovers of financial stress, and energy economics. His articles have been published in leading journals, including the Journal of Applied Econometrics and Energy Economics.

    Agustín Roitman is an Economist in the IMF’s European Department, currently working on Greece. Prior to joining the IMF, he held research positions at the Inter-American Development Bank. In previous positions at the IMF, he has covered a range of economies, including Qatar, Jordan, Malaysia, and Russia, and was involved in several research projects on the Middle East and Central Asia. His main areas of expertise include international finance and open economy macroeconomics, and his research centers on fiscal and monetary issues in emerging market and developing countries. Mr. Roitman holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Maryland, and a BA in Economics from Universidad Nacional de Cordoba (Argentina).

    Devesh Roy is a Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). He is currently based at IFPRI’s New Delhi office. His main areas of research are agricultural markets, with a special focus on food safety issues. He is currently involved in analysis of several inflationary commodities in India (such as onions and pulses), and he is completing a book on evolution of the pulses sector in India. Devesh Roy studied Economics at Delhi University for his undergraduate degree and obtained a master’s degree in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics. Subsequently, he obtained a PhD in Economics from the University of Maryland.

    Volodymyr Tulin is an Economist in the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF. Previously he worked in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, focusing on systemically important banks in major emerging market economies. During his IMF career, he has also worked in other departments, covering Mexico and the United States, Central and South America, as well as emerging Europe. His research interests include inflation dynamics, inclusive growth and inequality, and capital flows. Mr. Tulin holds a master’s degree in Development Economics from Harvard University.

    James P. Walsh is a Deputy Division Chief in the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, focusing on issues related to macrofinancial linkages and financial stability. He joined the IMF in 2001 and has held a wide range of positions, including in the IMF’s Policy Development and Review Department and country surveillance work on emerging markets in all regions of the world. His analytical work has covered capital flows, inflation, infrastructure investment, and systemic financial risks. He has a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago and a BA in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania.

    Jiangyan Yu is a Senior Economist in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, covering Korea. Prior to this, he worked on Mongolia and Nepal, as well as Tuvalu. Before joining the IMF in 2009, Mr. Yu had more than 10 years’ working experience in the Central Bank of China.

    Index

    [Page numbers followed by b, f, n, or t refer to boxed text, figures, footnotes, or tables, respectively.]

    A

    • Agricultural sector

      • Green Revolution, 64

      • growth patterns, 81–82, 82f

      • inflation effects on income in, 132

      • minimum support prices, 46, 58, 64–66

      • productivity, 58

    • Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee Act, 65

    • Animal source foods, viii, 45, 56–57, 58–62

      • household consumption and elasticities, 90, 92–93

    • Autoregressive distributed lag approach to inflation–growth studies, 115–116, 119–124

    B

    • Bai-Perron test, 7t, 8

    • Bhutan, viii, ix

      • economic linkages between India and, 149–150

      • exchange rate, 161

      • food inflation in, 160–161, 161t

      • future challenges, 164

      • inflation pass-through from India to prices in, 160–164, 162f

      • inflation patterns, 157–159, 159t, 160f, 160t

      • trade patterns and policies, 149, 151t, 161

      • trilemma index, 149n, 150f

    C

    • Cereal foods

      • buffer stock and reserves, viii, 58, 64, 78–80, 97–101, 98f, 99f

      • contribution to overall food inflation, viii, 56–57, 57f

      • domestic and international prices, 51, 53f, 54t

      • futures trading, 66

      • government food subsidies, 96, 96f

      • household consumption and elasticities, 90, 92–93, 104–105

      • inflation patterns, 45, 62–67, 63f

      • minimum support prices, 46, 58, 64–66, 78–79, 101–104, 102f, 103f, 107

      • policy interventions and outcomes, 77–79, 78f

      • policy recommendations, 106–107

      • price elasticities, 104–105

      • production patterns, 62–64, 78

      • public procurement, 95–97, 95f

      • scope of policy interventions, 62, 64

      • trade policies, 46, 65, 66–67, 68

    • China, 135–137, 136f, 137f, 141

    • Consumer price index inflation

      • commodities and weights in calculation of, 47–49, 48f

      • data collection, 42, 49

      • food inflation and, 4

      • food prices, 55f

      • growth and, viii

      • international comparison, 4

      • measurement objectives, 46

      • as monetary policy target, 203

      • nominal anchor for monetary policy, 199

      • output gap and, 9

      • patterns and trends, 4–6, 5f

      • Phillips curve modeling, 12–15, 13t, 14t

      • as stationary autoregressive process, 6

      • structural breaks in, 6–8, 7t

    • Core inflation, ix

      • as focus of monetary policy, 201

      • as focus of policy response to external price shocks, 211–221, 212f

      • food inflation in measurement of, vii–viii, 24–26, 39–40

      • headline inflation and, 190

      • household inflation expectations and, 6

      • international commodity prices and, 9

      • measurement, 23–24, 25

      • output gap and, 9

      • patterns and trends, 4–6

      • Phillips curve modeling, 12–14, 15

    • Cost-push shocks, vii

    • Credit channel of monetary policy transmission, ix

      • analytical methodology, 172–175, 174–175b, 176

      • asymmetric speed of adjustment in, 179–180, 180t, 181

      • bank lending part of, 169

      • recent performance, 180–181

      • salient issues for inflation management, 169

      • significance of, for inflation management, ix

      • speed and effectiveness of, 176–181, 178t, 179f

      • stepwise estimation of error correction models, 169–170, 170f

      • transparency in, 171–172

    • Cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag approach to inflation–growth studies, 115–116, 119, 123–124, 123t, 125t

    D

    • Dairy Entrepreneurship Development Programme, 61

    • Deposit rates, 176, 177–178, 179–180, 181, 183–185t

    • Developing economies and emerging markets

      • consumer price index inflation, 4, 5f

      • income inequality trends, 131

      • policy responses to food inflation, 203

      • significance of food inflation in, vii–viii, 26, 27–29, 37, 38–41, 187

    • Dickey-Fuller tests, 6

    E

    • Edible oils, 46, 51, 67, 68. See also Processed foods

    • Emerging markets. See Developing economies and emerging markets

    • Energy trade, 149–150, 164

    • Essential Commodities Act, 65

    • Euro area, 25, 179

    • Exchange rate

      • alternative policy responses to foreign inflation, 211–213, 212f, 213t

      • effects of foreign inflation under predetermined, 209–211

      • focus of inflation management policies, 201

      • inflation in India and, vii

      • policy response to food inflation, 198

      • regional spillover effects, ix

      • rigid regimes, 201

    F

    • Food expenditures, 188, 189t

    • Food inflation

      • agricultural price supports and, 46

      • in Bhutan, 157–159, 160–161, 161t

      • causes of, 67–68, 75

      • commodity-level analysis, viii, 45, 49, 50f, 54–67, 57f, 70–72t

      • consumer price index targeting in response to, 203

      • country income and, 27–29, 37

      • data sources, 45, 142

      • historical peaks, 50, 52f

      • impulse half-life, 36–37, 36t, 37f

      • income inequality and, viii–ix, 131, 132, 135, 135f, 139, 140–141

      • inflation expectations and, 6, 79, 80f, 188–189, 189f

      • international food prices and, 50–51, 53f, 54t, 67, 79–80

      • international sample, 143t

      • largest autoregressive root assessment, 34–36

      • in lower-income countries and emerging markets, vii–viii, 23, 26, 38–41

      • manufactured food items, 54, 55f

      • measurement, 46–49

      • in measurement of core inflation, vii–viii, 23, 24–26, 39–40

      • minimum price supports and, 76, 78–79, 101–104, 107

      • mitigating factors in income inequality outcomes of, 134

      • modeling food demand and supply interactions with, 83–87

      • modeling policy responses to price shocks, 201–208

      • monetary policy outcomes, 77–79, 82–83, 83f

      • monetary policy transmission mechanisms, 201

      • in Nepal, 151–157, 160–161, 161t

      • overall inflation in India and, vii, viii, 4, 23, 45, 75, 76–77, 77f, 188

      • patterns and trends, 27, 27f, 28f, 30f, 45, 50, 51f, 52f, 67, 70–72t, 77–79, 80f, 201, 202f

      • persistence of shocks, 30–37, 32f, 32t, 33f, 34t, 35f, 36t, 37f, 40, 202–203, 203f

      • policies to address, viii, ix, 45–46, 68–69, 76, 104–107

      • policy response to second-round effects, 199

      • private consumption patterns and, 81–82, 81f, 82f

      • regional spillovers from India, ix, 151–152, 153f, 154t, 155–156, 156f, 157–158f, 161, 164

      • seasonal and nonseasonal products, 24

      • second-round effects, ix, 187, 190–199, 191b

      • significance of, for policymakers, 23, 26, 40–41, 187

      • skewness of, 29, 29f

      • sum of autoregressive coefficients assessment, 31–34

      • supply and demand dynamics in, viii, 75–76, 88–104, 105, 106

      • trade policies in agriculture and, 46, 68

      • transmission of price shocks to nonfood inflation, 25, 28–30, 38–39, 39f

      • volatility, 202–203, 202f

      • volatility effects, 26–27, 28–29, 30

      • wages and, 188, 189f, 190

      • See also Animal source foods; Cereal foods; Fruits and vegetables; Processed foods

    • Food supply and demand, viii

      • cause of commodity-specific inflation, 58

      • consumer preference theory, 84

      • in food price inflation, viii, 75–76, 88–104, 105, 106

      • future of regional inflation dynamics, 164

      • household category expenditures and elasticities, 88, 90–93, 90t, 91f, 92t, 93t, 94f, 94t

      • minimum price supports and, 101–104, 102f

      • modeling inflation interactions with, 83–87

      • patterns and trends, 81–82, 81f, 82f

      • policies to address food inflation, 104–107

      • price elasticities of rice, 104–105

      • public procurement, 95–97, 95f

    • Food trade, 149, 156, 159f, 161, 164

    • Fruits and vegetables, viii, 45, 56–57

      • household consumption and elasticities, 90, 92–93

    • Fuel prices

      • core inflation measurement and, 24

      • food price shock effects versus shocks to, 201–202

      • inflation in India and, vii

      • international commodity prices, 9

      • patterns and trends, 4, 6, 201, 202f

      • persistence of shocks, 202–203, 203f

      • volatility, 202–203, 202f

    G

    • Generalized method of moments, 12

    • Ginger, 156, 158f

    • Gini coefficient, 134–138, 135f, 136f, 137f, 138f

    • Global financial crisis, 4, 9

      • food prices preceding, 26

    • Green Revolution, 64, 77

    • Growth

      • agricultural, 81–82, 82f

      • consumer price index inflation and, viii

      • income inequality and, 136–137, 136f, 138, 138f, 139, 140

      • inflation and. See Inflation–growth relationship

      • output gap calculations, 10

    H

    • Headline inflation, ix

      • in Bhutan, 157–159, 162–163

      • core inflation and, 190

      • as focus of policy response to external price shocks, 211–221, 212f

      • food prices and, 76–77, 77f income inequality and, 139, 140

      • international sample, 143t

      • in Nepal, 151–155

      • nominal anchor for monetary policy, 199

      • output gap and, 9

      • patterns and trends, 4, 5f

      • Phillips curve modeling, 12–13, 14–15

      • significance of, for policymakers, 24

      • structural breaks, 6–8, 7t

    • Household income

      • food demand and, 88

      • food expenditures, 188, 189t

      • inflation effects, 131–133

    I

    • Income inequality

      • in China, 135–137, 136f, 137f

      • in food-importing states, 141

      • food inflation and, 131, 132, 134, 135, 135f, 139, 140–141

      • global patterns, 134–135, 135f growth in China and, 136–137, 136f, 139

      • growth in India and, 138, 138f, 140

      • inflation and, viii–ix, 131–133, 135, 136f, 139, 140

      • trends, 131

      • urban–rural differences, 137–138, 138f, 140, 141

    • Inflation, general

      • in Bhutan, 157–159, 159t, 160f, 160t

      • food inflation linkage, vii, viii, 4, 23, 24–26, 45, 75, 76–77, 188

      • growth and. See Inflation–growth relationship

      • income inequality and, viii–ix, 135, 136f

      • measurement, vii–viii

      • monetary policies to address, vii, ix

      • in Nepal, 151, 152f, 153f, 153t

      • output gap and, 9–10, 10f, 20

      • patterns and trends, 3, 4, 5f, 143t, 188, 188f

      • poverty and, 131–133

      • regional linkages, ix

      • variance ratio statistic, 6, 7f

      • See also Core inflation; Food inflation; Headline inflation

    • Inflation expectations, vii, ix, 79, 80f

      • food inflation and, 188–189, 189f

      • patterns and trends, 3, 6

    • Inflation–growth relationship

      • AH model, 117

      • AK model, 117–118

      • autoregressive distributed lag model, 115–116, 119–124

      • cash-in-advance model of, 117

      • conventional view, 115

      • cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag model, 115–116, 119, 123–124, 123t, 125t

      • findings from literature, 117–118

      • India’s inflation threshold, 17b, 116, 125–127, 126t

      • linkage mechanism, 118

      • long-term, 116, 118, 119–124, 120f, 123t

      • money-in-the-utility-function model of, 117

      • nonlinear, 117, 118

      • policy implications, 116, 122–123, 126

      • variation among Indian states, 120, 121–122f

      • See also Inflation threshold(s)

    • Inflation targeting, viii, 6, 76, 105, 107, 201

      • response to food price shocks, 203

    • Inflation threshold(s)

      • India’s, 17b, 116, 125–127, 126t

      • modeling methodology, 17b, 20

      • Phillips curve and, 20

    • Intensive Dairy Development Programme, 61

    • Interest rates

      • evolution of India’s monetary policy, 171–172

      • focus of inflation management policies, 201

      • foreign inflation effects under predetermined exchange rate, 209–211

      • historical data, 172–175, 173f

      • inflation patterns in India and, 82–83, 83f

      • policy response to food inflation, 197–198, 197t, 198f, 199

      • as transmission channel of monetary policy, 170

      • See also Deposit rates; Lending rates

    • International commodity prices, 3

      • core inflation versus headline inflation as focus of policy response to shocks in, 211–221, 212f

      • food inflation, 79, 79f

      • food inflation in India and, 50–51, 53f, 54t, 67, 79–80

      • inflation in India and, 4, 9

      • inflation persistence, 202, 203f

      • modeling policy responses and outcomes to shocks in, 201–208

      • patterns and trends, 202f

      • Phillips curve modeling, 3

      • volatility, 202, 202f

    L

    • Lending rates, ix, 171–172, 172f, 176–181, 183–185t

    • Liquidity Adjustment Facility, 170, 171, 180

    M

    • Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, 189–190

    • Mangoes, 57

    • Medium-term inflation, 24–25

    • Milk prices, 45–46, 58–62, 59f, 92–93

    • Monetary policy

      • to address inflation, vii, ix, 68–69, 76, 104–107

      • core inflation versus headline inflation as target of, in response to external price shocks, 211–221, 212f

      • data sources, 172–175

      • evolution of India’s framework, 171–172

      • focus of inflation management strategies, 201

      • food inflation outcomes, 77–79, 82–83, 83f

      • inflation–growth linkage considerations in, 116, 122–123, 126

      • measurement of inflation for, 23–26

      • modeling price shock responses and outcomes, 201–208

      • nominal anchor, 199

      • obstacles to effectiveness, 201

      • regional inflation dynamics and, 149, 164

      • response to commodity price shocks, 201

      • response to food price shocks, 203

      • response to second-round effects of food inflation, 199

      • response to supply shocks, ix

      • short-term growth-inflation trade-off, viii

      • significance of, in inflation management, 169

      • significance of food price inflation, 26, 40–41, 187

      • significance of second-round effects of food inflation, ix, 187, 190–192, 191b, 199

      • transmission channels for inflation management, 169

      • transmission channels in India, 170–171

      • transmission of food price shocks into nonfood prices, 38

      • transparency of lending rates, 171–172

      • See also Credit channel of monetary policy transmission

    N

    • National Dairy Plan, 61

    • Nepal, viii, ix

      • economic linkages between India and, 149–150

      • food trade with India, 149, 156, 159f

      • future challenges, 156, 164

      • inflation pass-through from India to prices in, 151–156, 152f, 153f, 155t, 164

      • inflation patterns and trends, 151, 152f, 153f, 153t

      • trade patterns and policies, 149, 151t

      • trilemma index, 149n, 150f

    • New Keynesian Phillips curve, 11–16, 191–192

    O

    • Operation Flood, 60

    • Output gap

      • inflation and, 9–10, 20

      • Output gap measurement challenges, 10

      • patterns and trends, 10f

      • Phillips curve modeling, vii, 3–4, 11–13, 15, 18–19, 20

    P

    • Persistence of shocks

      • food inflation, 30–37, 32f, 32t, 33f, 34t, 35f, 36t, 37f, 40

      • world commodity prices, 202–203, 203f

    • Phillips curve modeling of India’s inflation, vii

      • findings, 3–4, 18–20

      • New Keynesian estimates, 11–16

      • non-linear, 16–17

      • stylized facts for, 4–6

    • Poverty, 131–133

    • Private consumption, 81, 81f

    • Processed foods, viii, 45, 56–57. See also Edible oils; Sugar

    • Producer price index, 46

    • Public distribution system, 95–97, 95f

    • Pulses, 46, 64, 68, 88, 91, 93, 104–105, 141

    Q

    • Quadratic almost ideal demand systems model, 84–85, 86–87b, 108t

    • Quandt-Andrews test, 7–8, 7t, 8f

    R

    • Regional spillovers

      • to Bhutan, 160–164, 162f

      • from India’s food inflation, ix

      • to Nepal, 151–156, 152f, 153f, 155t

      • See also Bhutan; Nepal

    • Repo rates, 173, 173f, 176–177

    • Reserve Bank of India, viii

    • Rice, 51, 57, 62–67, 63f

      • public procurement, 96

      • See also Cereal foods

    • Rural–urban migration, 133

    S

    • Short-term growth-inflation trade-off, viii

    • Sugar, 51, 57, 66, 67, 84, 88. See also Processed food

    T

    • Theil index, 136–137, 136f, 139

    • Trade patterns and policies

      • foreign inflation outcomes under fixed exchange rates and, 209–211

      • between India and neighbors, 149, 151t, 156, 159f

      • regional inflation dynamics and, 149

    • Trade policies

      • milk and milk products, 60

      • restrictions on food products, 46, 65, 66–67, 68

    • Trilemma index, 149n, 150f

    U

    • United States, 6, 25, 131

    • Urban–rural differences

      • food inflation effects on income inequality, 133, 134

      • income inequality, viii–ix, 137–138, 138f, 140, 141

    V

    • Variance ratio statistic, 6, 7f

    • Vector autoregression shock, 9

    • Volatility, inflation

      • core inflation, 4–6, 5f

      • in food prices, 26–27, 28–29, 30

      • in world commodity prices, 202–203, 202f

    W

    • Wages

      • food inflation and, 132–133, 134, 188, 189f, 190

      • growth patterns, 189–190

    • Weighted-average overnight call money rate, 171, 173–175, 176–181, 182–185t

    • Wheat, 51, 62–67, 63f. See also Cereal foods

    • Wholesale price index inflation

      • commodities and weights in calculation of, 46–47, 47f, 50f

      • food prices, 55f

      • international commodity prices and, 9

      • output gap and, 9

      • patterns and trends, 4–6, 5f

      • structural breaks, 8

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