Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Dora Iakova, Luis Cubeddu, Gustavo Adler, and Sebastian Sosa
Published Date:
December 2014
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    Index

    [Page numbers followed by b, f, or t refer to boxed text, figures, or tables, respectively.]

    A

    • Argentina

      • commodity exports, 43–44

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • distortionary economic policies in, 15

      • efforts to address economic imbalances in, 15

      • emerging economic challenges for, 15

      • energy supply issues in, 12

      • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 141, 143

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

      • recommended reforms to promote growth, 15–16

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Asia

      • economic growth in, versus growth in LAC, 19, 22f, 23, 23f

      • effects of global financial shocks on

      • capital flows in, 199, 200–201f, 206f

      • financial integration patterns and trends, 173, 173f

      • investment rates in, 12

      • terms-of-trade windfall in, 104

      • trade patterns in, 71, 76, 77f, 78

      • vulnerability to external financial shocks, 169, 182–83, 182f

    B

    • Banks. See Financial sector

    • Bolivia

      • commodity price fluctuations in, 46

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • export-led income windfall in 2000s for, 8

      • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Bond maturity dates, 216, 217f

    • Bond yields

      • emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

      • global financial shock outcomes in EMEs, 171, 171f

      • implications for EME of U.S. monetary policy, 226

      • implications of U.S. monetary policy, 216–17, 218f

      • patterns and trends, 9f

      • projected U.S., 214

      • sensitivity to U.S. monetary shocks, 219–24, 221f, 223t

      • synchronized rise in U.S. and EMEs, 217–19, 218f, 220

    • Brazil

      • business environment of, 12f

      • commodity exports, 43

      • construction sector activity in, 235

      • credit markets, 234, 239–40

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • education outcomes in, 12f

      • housing market, 241, 243

      • infrastructure quality in, 12, 12f

      • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

      • projected effects of external shocks on

      • debt sustainability in, 142, 143

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Business environment

      • in LAC countries, 12f

      • recommended reforms to improve, 14–15

      • total factor productivity growth and, 31–32, 32f

    C

    • Capital account restrictions, 173, 173f. See also Financial openness

    • Capital accumulation

      • modeling contributions to growth from, 19–21, 25–26

      • modeling sustainability of growth from, 26–27

      • projected growth rate of, output growth rate potential and, 28–30

      • as source of growth in LAC, 21, 22f, 32, 33f, 34f

    • Capital flows

      • causes of reversal episodes, 187

      • domestic investment during financial crises and, 187, 188, 193, 195, 196, 201–2, 224–26

      • effects of global financial shock on, 171, 171f, 181, 186–88

      • effects of uncertainty shocks on, 188, 189t, 192, 192f, 195–97, 198–99, 198f, 201–2, 203, 205f

      • effects of U.S. interest rate shocks on, 188, 189t, 192f, 193–94, 198f, 199, 201–2, 203, 205f, 207f, 224–26, 225f

      • effects of U.S. output shocks on, 193–94, 194f, 226, 226f

      • financial integration mediating global shock effects on, 195–97, 196f

      • global financial shock effects on types of, 198–99, 198f, 208f, 209f

      • international commodity price shocks and, 195

      • international comparison of global financial crisis effects on, 186f

      • LAC economic performance in 2000s and, 7

      • modeling global financial shock effects on, 189–91, 203

      • regional differences in effects of global

      • financial shocks on, 199, 200–201f, 206f

    • Chile

      • business environment of, 12f

      • capital flows, 186f

      • commodity price fluctuations in, 46

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • education outcomes in, 12f

      • export-led income windfall in 2000s for, 8

      • growth patterns in, 23

      • housing market in, 241, 244

      • infrastructure quality in, 12f

      • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

      • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

      • total factor productivity growth in, 24–25

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • China

      • implications for LAC of economic growth rates in, 41, 58–60, 59f, 61–62, 61f

      • influence on global commodity markets, 74

    • Colombia

      • business environment of, 12f

      • commodity price fluctuations in, 43, 44f, 46

      • construction sector activity in, 235

      • credit rules in, 245b, 246

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • education outcomes in, 12f

      • housing market, 244

      • infrastructure quality in, 12f

      • mortgage crisis, 245b

      • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 162

      • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

      • Commodity dependence, 75, 76, 77f, 90, 92–93f

      • Commodity export concentrations, 75–78, 92–93f

    • Commodity prices

      • in assessment of fiscal policy cyclicality, 155–56, 157

      • category comparisons and relationships, 73–75, 73f, 74f, 75f, 76–77

      • category distribution of recent increases in, 42, 47, 71

      • commodity export concentration and sensitivity to, 76, 78

      • demand in China as factor in, 58–60, 60f, 61–62

      • determinants of macroeconomic performance during shock episodes, 79–91

      • distinguishing features of LAC economies, 71

      • economic effects of stabilization in, 55, 56–58, 61

      • economic growth linkage with, 49–50, 50f, 78–79

      • effects of global financial shocks on, 170, 171f

      • effects on EME capital flows from positive shocks to, 195, 207f

      • emerging challenges for LAC from recent trends in, 10

      • implications of declines in, for medium-term growth, 39–41

      • income windfall for exporters in 2000s, 8, 96

      • LAC’s economic performance in 2000s and, 8, 10

      • levels versus growth of, economic growth and, 41, 46–47, 58

      • patterns and trends, 10f, 39, 40f, 45–47, 45f, 46f, 47f, 61, 64f, 71, 72–74, 73f

      • projected, 39, 47–49, 48f

      • projected economic growth effects of changes in, 41, 54–62

      • recommended policy response to projected patterns in, 62

      • See also Global vector autoregression to model commodity price–growth linkage

    • Construction sector, 235, 237f

    • Corporate debt, 14

    • Current account

      • balances during terms-of-trade booms, 105, 105f

      • international comparison, 174f

      • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 81, 81f, 84, 91

      • See also External balances

    D

    • Debt sustainability

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • methodology for assessing, 117–19, 124–36, 125f

      • policy responses to ameliorate shock effects on, 132–35, 137–39, 141–42

      • projected effects of Lehman-like event on, 132, 138, 140–42

      • projected effects of protracted global slowdown on, 131, 138, 139, 140–42

      • projected effects of temporary financial shock on, 131, 137–38, 140

      • projected effects of temporary real shock on, 131, 137–38, 140

      • recent patterns in external indicators, 123–24

      • recent patterns in fiscal indicators, 120–23

      • vulnerability of LAC countries to external shock effects on, 119, 143

    • Demographic patterns and trends

      • constraints to labor growth, 28, 29f

      • emerging challenges for LAC, 4, 12

      • projected dependency ratio, 28, 29f

      • in projected output growth rate, 28

    • Dominican Republic

      • growth rate potential, 27

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    E

    • Economic accomplishments of LAC in 2000s, 3, 4–8, 117, 118f

      • credit ratings reflecting, 7

      • emerging challenges to, 3–4, 10–13, 16

      • policies and conditions underlying, 3

      • recommended reforms to address emerging challenges to, 13–15

      • See also Growth in LAC; Medium term economic prospects

    • Ecuador

      • commodity price fluctuations in, 46

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 159

      • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Education

      • emerging challenges for LAC, 12

      • international comparison of student performance, 12

      • learning outcomes in LAC, 12f

      • recommended policies to promote economic growth, 14–15

      • total factor productivity growth and, 32, 32f

    • El Salvador

      • growth patterns in, 23

      • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Emerging market economies (EMEs)

      • capital flow responses to global financial shocks in, 185–202

      • domestic output response to global financial shocks in, 168

      • economic linkage with advanced economies, 168

      • effects of 2008 global financial crisis in, 167

      • effects of U.S. monetary policy on, 10–11, 214, 215t

      • financial integration patterns and trends, 173, 173f

      • financial sector outcomes of global financial shocks in, 171, 171f

      • fiscal policy cyclicality in, 149, 152, 157

      • international comparison of global financial shock outcomes, 177f, 182–83, 182f

      • labor market, 29f

      • market uncertainty effects in business cycle of, 168

      • modeling effects of large external shocks in, 175–79

      • projected demand in, 10, 10f

      • protective factors for, in response to external shocks, 167, 168–69, 185

      • trade sector outcomes of global financial shocks in, 170, 171f, 176

      • vulnerability of, to external shocks, 167, 168–69, 182–83, 185

    • EMEs. See Emerging market economies

    • Employment

      • construction sector, 235

      • emerging challenges for LAC, 11–12

      • patterns and trends, 7

      • prospects for growth, 28, 29f

      • as source of output growth in LAC, 23–24

    • Energy markets

      • current subsidies, 14

      • emerging challenges for LAC, 12

    • Energy sector, 25

    • Equity prices, emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

    • Europe

      • effects of global financial shocks on capital flows in, 199, 200–201f, 206f

      • vulnerability to external financial shocks, 169, 182–83, 182f

    • Exchange rates

      • external shocks in EMEs mediated by regime flexibility, 168–69, 179, 180–81, 180t, 183

      • implications of rising bond yields for, 217–19, 219f

      • in public debt dynamics in LAC, 120, 121f

      • recent trends, 10–11, 11f

      • recommended reforms to support continued growth, 14

      • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by flexibility in, 84, 87–90, 90f, 91

    • External balances

      • accomplishments in LAC in 2000s, 4–7, 117, 118f

      • debt sustainability analysis methodology, 124–36, 125f

      • determinants of debt dynamics, 147f

      • emerging challenges in LAC, 13, 15

      • external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by, 179, 180t, 181, 181f

      • international comparison, 174f

      • patterns and trends, 6–7, 6f, 123–24

      • projected effects of external shocks on, 142

      • recent policy trends contributing to widening of, 10

      • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 84

      • See also Current account

    • External conditions

      • contributing to LAC’s economic performance in 2000s, 3, 8, 117

      • debt sustainability analysis methodology, 117–19, 124–36

      • emerging challenges for LAC economies, 3, 10–11

      • projected effects of adverse scenarios on debt sustainability, 131–43

      • saving patterns in recent terms-of-trade boom affected by, 110–15, 113–14t

      • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 86

    F

    • Factor accumulation as source of output growth in LAC, 17–19, 25

    • Financial integration

      • decoupling trends in EMEs, 168

      • exchange rate flexibility and, in mediating effects of external shocks, 168–69, 180–81, 181f

      • external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by degree of, 167, 168–69, 176–77, 179, 180–81, 180t, 183, 188, 202

      • global financial shock effects on EME capital flows mediated by, 195–97, 196f

      • global patterns and trends, 173, 173f

      • international comparison of, 172f

      • measurement of, 172

      • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 86, 90

      • transmission of external financial shock effects mediated by, 172

    • Financial openness

      • global financial shock effects on EME capital flows mediated by, 195–97, 197f

      • global patterns and trends, 173, 173f

      • international comparison of, 172f

      • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 83, 84–86, 90

    • Financial sector

      • global financial shock outcomes in, 171, 171f

      • intermediation levels, 234–35

      • LAC’s economic performance in 2000s, 7

      • mortgage share of, 233, 244–47

      • recommended policy reforms to support growth of, 14

      • regulation and supervision of, 14

      • risk of global shocks for, 169, 170f, 170t

      • sources of improved soundness in 2000s, 7

      • total factor productivity growth and deepening of, 31, 32f

    • Fiscal policy

      • institutional and rules strengthening, 162

      • stimulus packages, 13

      • transparency, 162

      • See Procyclicality of LAC fiscal policies

    • Fiscal stimulus policies, 13

    • Flexible Suite of Global Models, 227

    • Foreign direct investment

      • effects of global financial shocks on, 198–99, 198f

      • share of capital inflows from, 7

    • Foreign financing

      • emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

      • LAC’s growth in 2000s supported by, 8

    G

    • Global financial crisis (2008–09)

      • bond yield changes and, 220–22

      • external debt patterns after, 124

      • fiscal stimulus outcomes in LAC, 13

      • outcomes in emerging market economies, 167

      • policy response in LAC, 8

      • protective factors in LAC’s recovery from, 3, 8

      • public debt patterns after, 122–23

    • Global vector autoregression to model commodity price-growth linkage, 41–42

      • findings from, 54–62

      • goodness of fit tests for, 54

      • limitations of, 62

      • net commodity price index for, 42–43, 64f, 65f

      • policy implications of findings from, 62

      • specifications and methodology, 50–54, 63–66

    • Governance challenges for LAC growth, 12–13

    • Growth in LAC

      • commodity price linkage with, 49–50, 50f, 78–79

      • emerging challenges to, 4, 11–13

      • estimated effects of negative terms-of-trade shocks on, 87

      • in exporting economies of LAC, 8

      • gap between 1990s and 2000s, 21, 22f

      • versus growth in Asia, 19, 22f, 23, 23f

      • growth in People’s Republic of China and, 41, 58–60, 59f, 61–62, 61f

      • international comparison of past global financial shock outcomes, 177f, 182–83, 182f

      • methodology for analyzing supply-side sources of, 19–21, 25–26

      • methodology for estimating potential for, 26–27

      • output gap estimations, 152, 153b

      • patterns and trends, 5f, 11, 17, 18f, 37t, 39, 40f

      • potential output growth rate projections, 27–31, 27f, 31f, 32

      • projected, 17

      • projected effects of commodity price scenarios on, 41, 54–62

      • prospects for, 19

      • public debt patterns and, 121

      • reforms to address emerging challenges to, 13–15

      • regional disparities in, 19, 21, 23f

      • strategies for improving total factor productivity to promote, 31–32

      • supply-side sources of, 17–19, 21–25, 22f, 32, 33f, 34f

      • See also Economic accomplishments of LAC in 2000s

    H

    • Honduras

      • commodity price fluctuations, 46

      • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 160

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Household debt, 244, 246f

    • Housing market

      • assessment challenges, 233, 238, 244, 246–47

      • credit access and, 231

      • evidence of bubble formation in, 232–33, 240–44, 241t, 247

      • financial stability concerns, 244–47

      • international comparison, 235, 236t

      • nonperforming loans, 233, 244

      • price trends, 231, 234f, 235–38, 237f, 241, 242–44, 242f

      • recommendations for oversight, 247–48

      • See also Mortgage credit in LAC

    • Human capital

      • emerging challenges for LAC, 12

      • as source of output growth in LAC, 24

    I

    • Income inequality

      • determinants of recent reductions in, 7

      • recent economic performance in LAC and, 4, 7

    • Inflation patterns and trends, 4, 5f

    • Infrastructure

      • emerging challenges for LAC, 12

      • quality in LAC, 12f

      • recommended policies to promote economic growth, 14–15

    • Interest rates

      • effects of sharp movements in U.S., on EME capital flows, 185, 188, 189t, 192f, 193–94, 195, 198f, 199, 201–2, 203, 205f, 207f, 224–26, 225f

      • emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

      • historical shocks in U.S., 204t

      • LAC’s growth in 2000s supported by, 8

      • projected U.S., 213–14

      • in public debt dynamics in LAC, 120, 121f, 123

      • recent U.S. patterns, 186f

      • saving patterns in recent terms-of-trade boom affected by global, 112

      • synchronized rise in, 217–19

      • U.S., LAC debt and, 214

      • See also Quantitative easing in U.S.

    • Internal balances

      • accomplishments in LAC in 2000s, 4

      • emerging challenges in LAC, 13

      • See also Public debt

    L

    • Labor

      • constraints to growth, 28, 29f

      • modeling contributions to growth from, 19–21

      • modeling sustainability of growth from, 26–27

      • output growth rate potential and, 28–30

      • as source of growth in LAC, 19, 21, 22f, 23, 24f, 32, 33f, 34f

      • See also Employment

    • LAC. See Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

      • capital account restrictions, 173, 173f

      • commodity dependence and export concentration, 76–78, 77f, 78f, 90, 92–93f

      • commodity price patterns, 10f, 39, 40f, 45, 45f, 46f, 47f, 61, 64f, 72–74

      • economic accomplishments in 2000s, 3, 4–8, 5f, 6f, 9f, 17, 117, 118f

      • effects of U.S. output and risk premium shocks, 227, 227f

      • emerging challenges for, 3, 4, 10–13

      • exports to U.S., 213, 214f

      • external debt trends in 2000s, 123–24

      • financial integration patterns and trends, 173, 173f

      • in global comparison of vulnerability to external financial shocks, 169

      • international comparison of effects of global financial shocks on capital flows in, 199, 200–201f, 206f

      • main commodity exports, 63t

      • public debt denominated in U.S. dollars, 214, 216, 216f

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 120–23

      • public debt patterns, 161, 161f

      • recommended reforms to address emerging economic challenges in, 13–15, 228

      • terms-of-trade booms in, 98, 99f

      • See also Economic performance in LAC; Growth in LAC; Mortgage credit in LAC; specific country

    • Long-term growth, policy reforms to support, 14

    M

    • Macroeconomic policies and performance

      • domestic sensitivity to external financial shocks mediated by, 172

      • effects of global financial crisis ameliorated by, 8

      • effects of terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 79–91

      • emerging challenges for LAC economies, 13, 15

      • external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by, 167, 168–69

      • international comparison of, 174f, 175

      • recommended reforms to address emerging challenges to, 13–15

      • strengthening of, in LAC’s recent growth period, 7

      • See also Exchange rates

    • Medium-term economic prospects

      • commodity price projections, 47–48, 48f

      • implications of international commodity price trends, 39–41

      • projected economic growth effects of changes in commodity prices, 41

      • recommended reforms to improve, 13, 14–15

    • Mexico

      • business environment of, 12f

      • capital flows in, 186f

      • credit markets in, 234

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • education outcomes in, 12f

      • growth patterns in, 23

      • housing market in, 241, 244

      • implications of U.S. economic recovery for, 213

      • infrastructure quality in, 12f

      • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

      • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Middle East and North Africa oil-exporting countries, 96, 98, 101, 104, 105–6, 105f, 107–9

    • Mining sector, 25

    • Monetary policy

      • bond yield sensitivity to changes in U.S., 219–24, 221f, 223t

      • reforms to promote growth, 14

      • U.S., effects on EMEs, 214, 215t, 227, 227f

      • See also Quantitative easing in U.S.

    • Mortgage credit in LAC

      • assessment challenges, 233, 238, 246–47

      • construction sector activity and, 235

      • evidence of boom conditions in, 238–40, 239f

      • financial balance sheets and, 244–47

      • recent trends, 231, 233–35, 234f

      • recommendations for oversight, 247–48

      • risk of bubble formation, 231, 232–33, 247

    • Mutual fund flows, 171, 171f

    N

    • National saving

      • average rates of, 105–6, 105f, 115

      • domestic and foreign distribution of, 107–9, 109f

      • external factors influencing, 110–15, 113–14t

      • marginal rate patterns, 106–10, 108t, 115

      • recommended policies to promote economic growth, 15

      • in response to terms-of-trade boom, 96, 104–10, 105f, 115

      • strategies for improving output growth, 31

    P

    • Panama

      • growth rate potential, 27

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Paraguay

      • commodity price fluctuations, 46

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Peru

      • business environment of, 12f

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • education outcomes in, 12f

      • growth rate potential in, 27

      • housing market in, 241, 242–43

      • infrastructure quality in, 12f

      • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Poverty, 7

    • Primary balance

      • components of, 122f, 145f, 146f

      • external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by, 179

      • international comparison, 174f

      • public debt and, 6f, 122

      • terms-of-trade shock effects on, 90f

      • trends in LAC, 118f, 123

    • Procyclicality of LAC fiscal policies

      • asset and commodity prices in analysis of, 155–56, 157

      • automatic and discretionary policy responses, 152–54

      • data sources on, 156–57

      • historical evidence for, 149

      • intra-LAC differences in, 149, 159–60, 160t, 162

      • measures of cyclical stance in analysis of, 152–54

      • methodology for analyzing, 149, 150–56, 151t

      • output gap estimation in analysis of, 152, 157, 159, 160t

      • recent patterns in, 149, 157, 158t

      • role of GDP composition in analyzing, 154–55

      • significance of cyclicality in fiscal policy decisions, 149–50

    • Productivity

      • recommended policies to promote economic growth, 14–15

      • See also Total factor productivity

    • Public debt

      • cyclicality of LAC fiscal policies and, 161–62

      • determinants of, in LAC in 2000s, 120–23, 121f, 122f, 144–46f

      • economic performance in LAC in 2000s, 3, 4, 6f, 161, 161f

      • effects of global financial crisis, 122–23

      • foreign-currency debt share of, 4

      • international comparison, 174f

      • maturity, 4, 6f

      • policy responses to ameliorate shock effects on, 138–39, 141–42

      • sustainability analysis methodology, 124, 125f, 127–36

    • Public spending, emerging challenges in LAC, 4, 13

    Q

    • Quantitative easing in U.S.

      • effects on capital flows in EMEs, 187, 188, 193, 202

      • EME bond yields and, 220–22, 221f

      • implications for EME foreign currency bond yields, 216–17

      • implications for global recovery from Great Recession, 185, 213

    R

    • Regulation

      • financial sector, 14

      • housing market oversight, 247–48

    S

    • Sovereign spread equation, 130

    T

    • Taxes

      • automatic stabilizing effects as cyclical fiscal policy, 152–54

      • in composition of GDP, 154–55

    • Terms of trade

      • cross-sectional modeling of effects of shocks to, 79–83, 85t

      • current account balances mediating shocks to, 81, 81f, 84, 91

      • econometric modeling of effects of shocks to, 83–86

      • effects of prior boom in, mediating negative shocks to, 81–83, 84

      • emerging challenges for LAC in, 10

      • exchange rate flexibility mediating effects of shocks to, 84, 87–90, 90f, 91

      • external factors mediating saving patterns in recent boom, 112–15, 113–14t

      • features of historical boom periods, 96–98, 97f

      • growth outcomes of negative shocks to, 87

      • historical episodes of, 80, 80f

      • income windfall from recent boom in, 8, 96, 98–104, 102f, 103f, 115

      • LAC’s economic performance in 2000s and, 8, 9f

      • measures of commodity price fluctuation, 42–43

      • panel setting approach to modeling effects of shocks to, 79, 86–90, 88–89t, 110–11, 113–14t

      • persistence of shocks to, 80, 97–98, 97f, 112

      • policy conditions mediating effects of shocks to, 72, 90–91

      • savings patterns in boom period in LAC, 96, 104–10, 105f, 115

    • Total factor productivity

      • future challenges for LAC economic performance, 19

      • modeling contributions to growth from, 19–21

      • modeling sustainability of growth from, 26–27

      • patterns and trends in LAC, 18, 24–25, 25f

      • projected growth rate of, output growth rate potential and, 28–31, 31f

      • as source of growth in LAC, 18, 19, 21, 22f, 23, 25, 33f 34f

      • strategies for improving, 31–32

    • Trade

      • commodity dependence in LAC, 71, 76, 77f, 78f

      • distinguishing features of LAC’s, 71

      • global financial shock effects on, in EMEs, 170, 171f

      • LAC exports to U.S., 213, 214f

      • main commodity exports from LAC, 63t

      • measure of commodity dependence, 75

      • measure of commodity export concentration, 75–76

      • See also Commodity prices; Terms of trade

    U

    • Uncertainty spikes, 168, 185, 186f

      • effects on capital flows in EMEs, 188, 189t, 192, 192f, 195–97, 198–99, 198f, 201–2, 203, 205f

      • historical episodes, 204t

      • See also Volatility index

    • United States

      • bond yield sensitivity to monetary shocks, 219–24, 221f, 223t

      • bond yields in 2000s, 9f, 10–11, 11f

      • effects of interest rate shocks in, on EME capital flows, 192f, 193–94, 198f, 199, 201–2, 203, 205f, 207f, 224–26, 225f

      • effects on EME capital flows of interest rate shocks in, 185, 188, 189t, 195, 199

      • global implications of economic recovery in, 213, 226–27

      • historical interest rate shocks in, 204t

      • interest rate regime, 10–11

      • LAC exports to, 213, 214f

      • monetary policy responses to global financial shocks, 185, 186f

      • output shock effects on EME capital flows, 193–94, 194f, 207f, 226, 226f, 227f

      • projected interest rates, 213–14

      • See also Quantitative easing in U.S.

    • Uruguay

      • business environment of, 12f

      • commodity price fluctuations in, 43, 44f, 46

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • education outcomes in, 12f

      • housing market in, 244

      • infrastructure quality in, 12f

      • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    V

    • Vector autoregression modeling for debt sustainability analysis, 128–30

    • Vector autoregression modeling global financial shock effects on capital flows in EMEs, 189–91

    • Venezuela

      • commodity price fluctuations in, 46

      • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

      • emerging economic challenges for, 15

      • energy supply issues in, 12

      • export-led income windfall in 2000s for, 8

      • external imbalances, 15

      • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 159

      • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 141, 143

      • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability of, 139–40

      • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

      • reforms to promote growth in, 15–16

      • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

      • Volatility index, 168, 169, 180t. See also Uncertainty spikes

    W

    • Wages, 7

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