Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Charles Amo Yartey, and Therese Turner-Jones
Published Date:
May 2014
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    Index

    Page numbers followed by b, f, n, or t refer to boxed text, figures, footnotes, or tables, respectively.

    A

    • Advanced economies, case studies, 112–119

    • African Development Bank, 208–209, 227n1

    • Air Jamaica, 172

    • Antigua and Barbuda

      • central government debt-to-GDP ratio, 194f

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt management framework, 65t

      • debt restructuring, 168, 178, 213, 216, 216n10, 217

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210, 210t

      • debt restructuring outcomes (2004–13), 215t, 217–218t

      • debt restructuring, post-2000, 278b

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt service (2004–13), 214f

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • debt swaps and buy-backs, post-2000, 278b

      • debt write-offs, post-2000, 278b

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61 t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 163–164, 164f, 166, 166f

      • fiscal contingent liabilities, 152

      • fiscal rigidities, 178f,180–181f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61 t

      • public debt accumulation during financial crisis, 38

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 43t, 48, 48–49f, 49, 50t, 51, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

      • sovereign debt restructuring (2005–12), 211 t

      • stabilization of public-debt-to-GDP ratios, 142–143

      • total public debt (2004–13), 213f

    • Average grace period, 51

    • Average grant element, 50–51

    • Average interest rates on new debt, 51

    B

    • The Bahamas

      • central government debt-to-GDP ratio, 194f

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt levels (1997–2011), 27

      • debt management framework, 65t

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210t

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • domestic bonds, 12

      • exchange rate regimes, 6

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 163, 164f, 165, 166, 166f

      • fiscal rigidities, 178f, 180–181f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61t

      • public debt accumulation during financial crisis, 38

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 42, 43t, 44–45f, 45, 46, 47, 48, 48–49f, 49, 50t, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

      • trade unionism in, 7

    • Barbados

      • central government debt-to-GDP ratio, 194f

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt levels (1997–2011), 27

      • debt management framework, 65t

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210t

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • domestic bonds, 12

      • exchange rate regimes, 6

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61 t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal adjustment (1991–93), 123–124

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 164f, 166, 166f

      • fiscal consolidation, current efforts, 169–171, 170f

      • fiscal rigidities, 178f, 180–181f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • IMF Stand-By Arrangement, 124

      • industrial relations, 7

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy (MTFS), 169–170

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • nonrecognition of trade unions, 7

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61t

      • public debt accumulation during financial crisis, 38

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 43t, 44–45f, 45, 46, 47, 48–49f, 50t, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

      • social security scheme, 12

      • stabilization of public-debt-to-GDP ratios, 142, 142–143

      • tax revenue (2011), 183

      • transfers and fiscal rigidities, 179

    • Barbuda. See Antigua and Barbuda

    • Belize

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt management framework, 66t

      • debt restructuring, 168, 209, 213, 214, 216, 216n9

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210t

      • debt restructuring outcomes (2004–13), 215t, 217–218t

      • debt restructuring, post-2000, 278b

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt service (2004–13), 214f

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • debt swaps and buy-backs, post-2000, 278b

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • exchange rate regimes, 6

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61 t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 164, 164f, 166, 166f

      • fiscal contingent liabilities, 152

      • fiscal rigidities, 180–181 f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • nonrecognition of trade unions, 7

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61 t

      • public debt accumulation during financial crisis, 38

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 12, 42, 43t, 44–45f, 45, 46, 47, 48–49f, 49–50, 50t, 51, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

      • sovereign debt restructuring (2005–12), 211–212t

      • total public debt (2004–13), 213f

    • Bernanke, Ben, 259

    • Bonds

      • Brady Plan (IMF), 205–206, 207 domestic vs. foreign, 12, 45, 168 sovereign bond debt, 207–208

    • Botswana

      • adoption of fiscal rules, 261

    • Botswana, adoption of fiscal rules, 262, 264

    • Brady Plan (IMF), 205–206, 207

    • Brazil

      • fiscal adjustment (1990–2003), 119–120

      • Fiscal Responsibility Law, 120

      • large debt reduction (2002–08), 82–83, 83f

    • Budget balance rules, 256–257, 263–264

    • Budgetary institutions, 266

    C

    • Canada

      • fiscal adjustment (1994–97), 112

      • large debt reduction (1997–2007), 83–84, 84f

    • Cape Verde, adoption of fiscal rules, 261, 262

    • Capital adequacy ratio (CAR)

    • Caribbean Development Bank external debt, 45

      • poverty assessment studies, 5

    • Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), adoption of fiscal rules, 260–261, 262

    • Chile

      • Finance Ministry, 116

      • fiscal adjustment (1990–2000), 119

    • Clarendon Alumina Plant (Jamaica), 172

    • Clinton, Bill, 118–119

    • Colonial Life Insurance Company (CLICO), 32

    • Commercial bank debt, 207

    • Commodity-exporting economies

      • commodity prices (2000–13), 182f

      • fiscal consolidation in, 163–164, 164f

      • global financial crisis, impacts on, 1, 35–36, 38, 39f

      • primary expenditure and revenue, regional average, 33, 35–36f

      • See also specific countries

    • Commonwealth Debt Initiative (U.K.), 278b

    • Concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50, 50t

    • Contingent liabilities, 52, 64t, 152, 154t, 155, 280

    • Cote d’Ivoire, fiscal adjustment (1993–2000), 124

    • Country-specific data, global comparisons

      • basis of fiscal adjustment, selected countries, 112t

      • escape clauses, 264t

      • fiscal rules in microstates, 256t

      • government consumption (2010), 237f

      • large debt reduction without restructuring, 98–100t

      • numerical limits in fiscal rules, 263t

      • public debt-to-GDP ratios (2012), 261 f

      • real GDP per capita, in microstates (2009), 236t

      • tax revenue (2011), 183f

    • Credibility. See Policy credibility

    • Cumulative multiplier, 18–19, 187, 190–191, 192f, 195f

    • Current account. See Fiscal policy and current account, in microstates

    • Cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB)

      • country comparisons (1997–2011), 27, 28f, 29

      • debt reduction and, 73–74

      • fiscal adjustment, and global country comparisons, 112–118

      • fiscal consolidation and, 93, 160, 161, 165–166

      • fiscal policy and, 267–268

      • fiscal rules and, 21

      • in panel regression model, 238, 239, 241–242

    D

    • Debt benchmarks, 139–140

    • Debt ceilings, 261–262

    • Debt levels and fiscal multipliers, 189, 193, 195–196

    • Debt levels and growth, debates over, 7–10, 9f

    • Debt limit, defined, 136

    • Debt limit measures

      • debt benchmarks, 139–140

      • debt thresholds based on uncertainty and probabilistic methods, 140

    • Debt management laws, 13

    • Debt Management Performance Assessment framework (World Bank), 13

    • Debt payment arrears, 51, 63t

    • Debt reduction. See Fiscal consolidation and debt reduction; Global large debt reduction, lessons from

    • Debt restructuring, Caribbean region, 205–228

      • overview, 19–20, 205–206

      • during 1978–2013, 210t

      • during 2004–13, 209–217, 210–212t, 213–214f, 215t, 217–218t

      • post-2000, 278b

      • access to external private international debt market, 219

      • challenges of, 218–220

      • conditions for further restructuring, 220–224, 221–223f, 222n13

      • innovative solutions to, 224

      • key findings, 226–228, 227t

      • leveraging impact of IMF, 224–225, 227

      • need for credible policy reform programs, 219–220

      • optimistic projections, 220

      • political economy of domestic debt restructuring, 220

      • required haircuts to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • required size of debt reduction, 218, 218n11

      • share of public sector debt held domestically and by multilateral agencies, 219

      • spillovers and contagion effects, potential for, 220

    • Debt restructuring, international framework

      • commercial bank debt, 207

      • debt relief for highly indebted poor countries, 208–209

      • official bilateral debt, 208

      • relief mechanisms and, 206–209

      • sovereign bond debt, 207–208

    • Debt rules, defined, 257

    • Debt sustainability, defined, 136

    • Debt swaps and buy-backs, post-2000, 278b

    • Debt thresholds based on uncertainty and probabilistic methods, 140

    • Debt write-offs, post-2000, 278b

    • Debtred variable, 92

    • Denmark

      • fiscal adjustment (2004–05), 104, 112–113

      • large debt reduction (1998–2007), 85, 85f

    • Developing economies, case studies, 124–125

    • Dominica

      • central government debt-to-GDP ratio, 194f

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt management framework, 66t

      • debt restructuring, 209, 213, 216, 216n8

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210t

      • debt restructuring outcomes (2004–13), 215t, 217–218t

      • debt restructuring, post-2000, 278b

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt service (2004–13), 214f

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61 t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 164–165, 164f, 166, 166f

      • fiscal rigidities, 180–181f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61 t

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 42, 43t, 44–45f, 47, 48–49f, 49–50, 50t, 51, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

      • sovereign debt restructuring (2005–12), 211 t

      • total public debt (2004–13), 213f

    • Dominican Republic, fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 163, 164f,166, 166f

    • Dynamic inefficiency issue, 145, 151

    E

    • Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, 6

    • Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU)

      • adoption of fiscal rules, 260–261, 262, 263–264

      • debt limits, 136–137, 137n3, 142

      • debt-to-GDP ratios, 222

      • Eight Point Growth and Stability Agenda, 264–265

      • exchange rate regimes, 6

      • fiscal multipliers in, 189–190

      • IMF on expenditure rationalization within, 264–265

      • market access, 216n6

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

      • spillovers and contagion effects, potential for, 220

      • See also specific member countries

    • Economic growth

      • debt levels and, 7–10, 9f

      • debt reduction and, 76

      • structural reforms and debt sustainability, 280

      • See also Fiscal performance, pre-post global financial crisis

    • Economic recessions, 189

      • See also Fiscal performance, pre-post global financial crisis

    • Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance (EPCA) (IMF), 86

    • Emerging economies, case studies, 119–124

    • Escape clauses, 264–265, 264t

    • European Commission, 259

    • European Monetary Union (EMU), 16, 113, 114, 115

    • European Union (EU)

      • adoption of fiscal rules, 260–261, 262–263, 264–265, 264n6, 265

      • debt limits, 136

      • fiscal consolidation in, 162

      • large debt reduction, 74, 75

      • Stability and Growth Pact, 261, 264n6

      • See also Country-specific data, global comparisons; specific countries

    • Exceptional fiscal performance measure, 151–152, 153t

    • Exchange rate devaluation, 110–111

    • Exchange rate regimes, 6, 189

    • Expenditure rules, 257, 265–266

    • Exports and export markets, 5–6

      • See also Commodity-exporting economies

    F

    • Finland, fiscal adjustment (1998), 113

    • Fiscal and debt sustainability, new regional agenda, 273–282

      • overview, 22–23, 273

      • active privatization programs, 279–280

      • containment of contingency liabilities, 280

      • credibility, importance of, 276

      • debt management, 279

      • debt relief, post-2000, 278b

      • fiscal consolidation, 274, 277

      • fiscal consolidation plan checklist, 275 b

      • fiscal rules and credibility of fiscal policy, 277

      • growth-enhancing structural reforms, 280

      • public debt reduction, elements of, 281–282b

      • public sector rationalization, 279

      • quality of previous consolidations, 275

      • raising additional revenues, 275–276

      • social safety nets, 276

      • tax policy reform, 279

    • Fiscal consolidation and debt reduction, overview, 1–23

      • debt levels and growth, debates over, 7–10, 9f

      • debt restructuring, examples of, 19–20

      • fiscal and debt sustainability, new agenda, 22–23

      • fiscal consolidation, examples of, 14–16, 17–18

      • fiscal multipliers, size of, 18–19

      • fiscal performance, pre-post global financial crisis, 1, 10–11

      • fiscal policy and current account, 20–21

      • fiscal policy rules and fiscal performance, 21

      • fiscal sustainability and natural debt limits in region, 16–17

      • public debt profile and management, 11–13, 12f

      • reduction of public debt, 13–14

      • regional public debt, 1, 2f

      • social, economic, and political context, 3–7, 4t

      • See also specific aspects and initiatives

    • Fiscal consolidation, Caribbean history of, 159–185

      • overview, 17–18, 159–160

      • during 1980–2011, 160–167, 162n7, 162t, 163–167f

      • current efforts, 167–176, 169f, 171–172f, 174–175f

      • debt approach, 161

      • definitions, 160–161

      • fiscal rigidities, 177–181, 178–181f

      • global economic conditions and, 182, 182–183f

      • high debt levels, 176, 176–177f

      • limited scope for tax increases, 183

      • natural disasters and, 183–184

      • primary balance approach, 161

      • See also specific countries

    • Fiscal consolidation, definitions, 160–161

    • Fiscal consolidation, empirical literature, 103–129

      • overview, 14–16, 103–104

      • basis of fiscal adjustment, selected countries, 112t

      • composition and size of fiscal adjustments, 108

      • exchange rate devaluation and, 110–111

      • expenditure cuts vs. revenue increases, 108–109

      • external vs. domestic conditions, 109

      • factors of successful consolidation, 107

      • fiscal adjustments as political liability, 111

      • fiscal rules and, 111–112

      • literature review, 106–112

      • perception of sovereign risk and, 109–110

      • successful consolidations, lessons from, 125–127

      • theoretical background of debates over, 104–106

      • triggers of, 107

      • See also specific countries

      • Fiscal consolidation plan checklist, 275 b

      • Fiscal multipliers, 187–202

        • cumulative multiplier, 18–19, 187, 190–191, 192f, 195f

        • data sources and processing, 199, 200–201t

        • empirical studies on, 188–190

        • estimated fiscal multipliers, 190–198

        • expenditure shocks, effects of, 190–196, 191–195f

        • impact multiplier, 18–19, 187, 190–191

        • methodology and data, 190

        • size of, 18–19, 188–190

        • structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models, 190, 202

        • tax cuts, effects of, 196–197f, 196–198

        • theories of, 188

      • Fiscal performance, pre-post global

        • financial crisis, 10–11, 25–40

        • overview, 1, 10–11

        • change in government debt, country specific, 28f

        • comparisons during 1997–2011, 26–31

        • cyclically adjusted primary balance, country-specific, 28f

        • decomposition of total expenditure, regional average, 29, 30f

        • GDP growth and public wages, regional average, 29–30, 31 f

        • GDP growth, primary balance, regional average, 27f

        • primary expenditure and revenue, regional average, 29, 29–30f, 32–33, 32–36f

        • public debt accumulation during crisis, accounting exercise, 36–38, 39f

        • public debt and fiscal balances during crisis, 31–36

        • real GDP growth and government debt, regional average, 26f, 34f

      • Fiscal policy and current account, in microstates, 231–252

        • overview, 20–21, 231–232

        • characteristics of microstates, 234–237, 236t, 237f

        • literature review, 232–234, 246–247t

        • panel regression approach, 231–232, 233–234, 237–242, 240t, 247–248t

        • panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach, 232, 233–234, 242–245, 242n3, 243–244f, 249–252f

        • robustness tests, 241–242, 245

      • Fiscal policy rules

        • characteristics of rules, 257, 258b

        • roles and design of rules, 111–112, 257–259

        • types of rules, 256–257

      • Fiscal policy rules and fiscal performance, in microstates, 255–270

        • overview, 21, 255–260, 256t, 258b

        • debt, expenditure, and budget balance rules, 261–262f, 261–265, 263–264t

        • empirical results, 269–270, 269t

        • literature review, 265–266

        • methodology and data, 267–268

        • model estimation, 268–269

        • origins and institutional coverage of rules, 260–261, 260f

      • Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1994 (New Zealand), 88

      • Fiscal sustainability and public debt limits, 133–155

      • overview, 16–17, 133–134

      • cost and risk channels to economy, 134–136

      • debt limit concepts, 143–145, 144t

      • debt limit measures, 139–140

      • debt stabilizing balances and fiscal efforts, 137, 142–143, 143t

      • definitions, 136–137

      • exceptional fiscal performance, 151–152, 152n13, 153t

      • fiscal contingent liabilities, 152, 154t, 155

      • long-run fiscal sustainability condition, 138b

      • long-term debt benchmarks, 145, 146t, 147–148

      • measures of fiscal sustainability, 137–139

      • natural debt limits, 148, 149t, 150–151, 150f,155t

      • optimal debt level, 142

      • policy implications and conclusions, 155

      • strategies for including macroeconomic uncertainty, 140–142

      • theory of, 136–142

    • Fiscal sustainability measures

      • debt stabilizing balances and fiscal efforts, 137

      • fiscal policy reaction to debt levels, 137, 139

    • Fixed exchange rate regimes, 6

    • Floating interest rate risks, 47–48, 48f

    • Foreign currency debt, 12, 46

    • France, fiscal adjustment (1996–97), 113–114

    G

    • Germany, fiscal adjustment (2003–05), 114

    • Global financial crisis. See Fiscal performance, pre-post global financial crisis

    • Global large debt reduction, lessons from, 73–100

      • overview, 13–14, 74–75

      • Brazil (2002–08), 82–83, 83f

      • Canada (1997–2007), 83–84, 84i

      • Denmark (1998–2007), 85, 85f

      • determinants of, 94–95t

      • estimating probability of reduction, 91–97, 94–96t

      • examples of, 13–14

      • key findings, 78, 79–80

      • large debt reduction without restructuring, 98–100t

      • Lebanon (2006–10), 86–87, 86f

      • literature review, 74–77

      • New Zealand (1992–2007), 87–88f,87–89

      • public-debt-to-GDP ratio, decline of, 78–82, 79–81f

      • South Africa (1999–2008), 89–90, 89f

      • Vanuatu (2002–07), 90–91, 90f

    • Golden rule, in fiscal policy, 257n1

    • Grenada

      • central government debt-to-GDP ratio, 194f

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt management framework, 67t

      • debt restructuring, 209, 213, 214, 216

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210t

      • debt restructuring outcomes (2004–13), 215t, 217–218t

      • debt restructuring, post-2000, 278b

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt service (2004–13), 214f

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61 t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 164–165, 164f, 166, 166f

      • fiscal rigidities, 178f, 180–181f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61 t

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 12, 42, 43t, 44–45f, 45, 46, 47, 48–49f, 49, 50t, 51, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

      • sovereign debt restructuring (2005–12), 211 t

      • stabilization of public-debt-to-GDP ratios, 142–143

      • total public debt (2004–13), 213f

    • Grenadines. See St. Vincent and the Grenadines

    • Group of Eight (G-8), 208–209

    • Guyana

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt management framework, 67t

      • debt restructuring, 205, 209

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210t

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • debt write-offs, post-2000, 278b

      • decline of debt (1997–2011), 27

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • exchange rate regimes, 6

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61 t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 164f, 166, 166f

      • fiscal rigidities, 178f, 180–181f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • HIPC debt relief, 36

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • nonrecognition of trade unions, 7

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61 t

      • public debt accumulation during financial crisis, 38

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 42, 43t, 44–45f, 45, 47, 48–49f, 50, 50t, 51, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

    H

    • Haiti, debt restructuring, 209

    • Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC), 27, 36, 206, 208–209, 278b

    • Helmert transformation. See Panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach

    • Hodrick-Prescott filter, 199

    • Hurricane Omar (2008), 183

    • Hurricane Sandy (2012), 183

    • Hyperinflation, large debt reduction and, 77

    I

    • Iceland, adoption of fiscal rules, 261

    • Impact multiplier, 18–19, 187, 190–191

    • Imports, fiscal multipliers and, 191–193

    • Independent fiscal councils, 259

    • Inflation, large debt reduction and, 77

    • Interest rate resetting risks, 48, 49 f

    • International Country Risk Guide (PRS Group), 267, 268

    • International Monetary Fund (IMF)

      • Brady Plan, 205–206, 207

      • catalytic role in debt restructuring, 224–225, 227

      • commercial bank debt and, 207

      • debt sustainability, 222, 222n13

      • on effectiveness of fiscal rules, 259

      • Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance, 86

      • on expenditure rationalization, 279

      • Fiscal Affairs Department, 9, 275, 279

      • large debt reduction, literature review, 75–77

      • Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), 27, 206, 208–209, 278b

      • official bilateral debt and, 208, 208n3

      • Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, 145

      • sovereign bond debt and, 207–208

      • Stand-By Arrangement, 124, 171–172

      • on sustainable fiscal policy, 136

      • World Economic Outlook (WEO), 237, 247t, 267

      • See also specific member countries

    • Ireland, fiscal adjustment (2003–04), 104, 114

    • Italy

      • confidence crisis, 105

      • debt write-off initiatives, 278b

      • fiscal adjustment (1997), 115

    J

    • Jamaica

      • adoption of fiscal rules, 260, 262, 264

      • central government debt-to-GDP ratio, 194f

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt management framework, 68t

      • debt management laws, 13

      • debt restructuring, 168, 178, 209, 213, 214, 216, 218, 224

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210, 210t

      • debt restructuring outcomes (2004–13), 215t, 217–218t

      • debt restructuring, post-2000, 278b

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt service (2004–13), 214f

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • debt write-offs, post-2000, 278b

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • domestic bonds, 12

      • exchange rate regimes, 6

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61 t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal adjustment (1998–2001), 120–121

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 164f, 165, 166f

      • fiscal consolidation, current efforts, 171–172f, 171–173

      • Fiscal Responsibility Framework, 173

      • fiscal rigidities, 178f, 180–181f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • IMF Stand-By Arrangement, 171–172

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48i

      • Jamaican Debt Exchange, 171–172

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61 t

      • public debt accumulation during financial crisis, 38

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 43t, 44–45i, 45, 47, 48, 48–49f, 49, 49–50, 50t, 51, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

      • sovereign debt restructuring (2005–12), 211–212t

      • stabilization of public-debt-to-GDP ratios, 142–143

      • Tax Administration Jamaica, 172

      • total public debt (2004–13), 213f

      • trade unionism in, 7

      • 2000 Staff Monitored Program, 120–121

    • Japan, fiscal adjustment (2004), 115, 126

    • JPMorgan Central American and Caribbean Index, 145

    K

    • Keynesian economics, 104, 188

    L

    • Labor markets

      • in Caribbean region, 5–7, 169

      • fiscal consolidation and, 15, 97, 105, 105 n7, 108, 280

      • in microstates, 235

      • See also specific countries

    • Labor Party (U.K.), 118

    • Labor unions, 5, 7

    • Large debt reduction, defined, 13

      • See also Global large debt reduction, lessons from

    • Large debt reduction, estimating probability of reduction, 91–97, 94–96t

      • data, 92–93

      • estimation results, 93–95, 98–100t

      • methodology, 91–92

      • robustness tests, 96–97

    • Latin America

      • Brady Plan (IMF), 206, 207

      • fiscal rigidities, comparison of, 178

    • Lebanon

      • fiscal adjustment (1998–2002), 121

      • large debt reduction (2006–10), 86–87, 86f

      • Life expectancy, 3

      • Limits on debt. See Fiscal sustainability and public debt limits

      • Lithuania, fiscal adjustment (1999–2003), 121–122

      • London Club, 207

      • Long-term debt benchmarks, 145, 146t, 147–148

      • Luxembourg, adoption of fiscal rules, 260, 261

    M

    • Macroeconomic uncertainty and fiscal sus-tainability

      • fair spreads approach, 141–142

      • natural debt approach, 140–141

      • value-at-risk approach, 141

    • Malta, adoption of fiscal rules, 260

    • Mauritius, adoption of fiscal rules, 262

    • Median real GDP growth and public debt, 9f

    • Microstates, characteristics of, 234–237, 236t

      • See also Fiscal policy and current account, in microstates; Fiscal policy rules and fiscal performance, in microstates

    • Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), 3, 5, 208–209

    • Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) (IMF), 27, 206, 208–209, 278b

    • Mundell-Fleming model, 232

    N

    • Namibia, adoption of fiscal rules, 260–261, 262

    • Natural debt limits, 148, 149t, 150–151, 150f, 155t

    • Natural disasters

      • economic impacts of, 1, 38

      • fiscal consolidation and, 183–184

    • Neoclassical economics, 188

    • Net foreign assets (NFA), 239, 241

    • Netherlands

      • Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, 116

      • fiscal adjustment (2004–05), 115–116

    • Nevis. See St. Kitts and Nevis

    • New Zealand

      • fiscal adjustment (2003), 116

      • Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1994, 88

      • large debt reduction (1992–2007), 87–88f, 87–89

    • Nigeria, fiscal adjustment (1994–2000), 123

    O

    • Official bilateral debt, 208

    • Offshore financial services, 6, 235

    • Open economy models, 233

    • Optimal debt level, 142

    • Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 162, 167

    • See also specific countries

    P

    • Pacific Financial Assistance Centre, 91

    • Panel regression approach, impact of fiscal policy on current account, 231–232, 233–234, 237–242, 240t, 247–248t

    • Panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach, 232, 233–234, 242–245, 242n3, 243–244f, 249–252f

    • Paris Club, 168, 175, 206, 208, 208n3, 278b

    • Paris III Agenda (Lebanon), 86–87

    • People’s National Party (Jamaica), 120

    • PetroCaribe Arrangement, 224, 224n17

    • Policy credibility, 219–220, 257–258, 276–277

    • Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (IMF), 145

    • Privatization programs, 74, 279–280

    • PRS Group, International Country Risk Guide, 267, 268

    • Public debt accumulation during global financial crisis, accounting exercise, 36–38, 39f

    • Public debt limits. See Fiscal sustainability and public debt limits

    • Public Debt Management Act (Botswana), 264

    • Public debt, management of, 41, 52–70

      • overview, 11–13

      • estimates of contingent fiscal liabilities, 52, 64t

      • fiscal and monetary policy, weak coordination between, 54

      • fragmented legal framework, 54

      • improvement efforts, 55–56

      • inadequate risk management and debt recording, 55

      • inefficient debt markets, 54

      • institutional fragmentation, 52–56, 64–70t

      • regional practices and progress indicators, 53t

      • weak frameworks, 54

    • Public debt, profile of, 41–51

      • overview, 11–13

      • average grace period, 51

      • average grant element, 50–51

      • average interest rates on new debt, 51

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • debt by concessionality, 50

      • debt by currency, 46

      • debt by instruments, 45, 45f

      • debt payment arrears, 51

      • debt service burdens, 48–49, 61t

      • external vs. domestic debt, county-specific, 12f

      • floating interest rate risks, 47–48, 48f

      • government guaranteed debt, country-specific, 43t

      • gross financing needs, 47, 59–60t

      • interest costs, 49–50

      • interest rate resetting risks, 48, 49f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • originators of rising debt, 42–45

      • public debt decomposition (2011), country-specific, 44f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • risks from domestic debt, 46

      • roll-over risk, 46–47

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 42t, 57–58t

      • short-term external debt (2003–11), 58t

    • Public debt reduction, elements of, 281–282b

    R

    • Real interest rates, 151

    • Recessions. See Economic recessions

    • Reduction of debt. See Fiscal consolidation and debt reduction; Global large debt reduction, lessons from

    • Reserve rules, defined, 257

    • Restructuring of debt. See headings at Debt restructuring

    • Revenue rules, defined, 257

    • Ricardian equivalence principle, 20, 188, 231

    • Roll-over risk, 46–47

    • Russia

      • fiscal adjustment (1999–2002), 122, 127

      • tax measures, 126

    S

    • St. Kitts and Nevis

      • central government debt-to-GDP ratio, 194f

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt management framework, 68t

      • debt restructuring, 168, 209, 213–214, 216–217, 216n8, 218, 224

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210t

      • debt restructuring outcomes (2004–13), 215t, 217–218t

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt service (2004–13), 214f

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61 t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 164f, 166f

      • fiscal consolidation (2003–06), 166

      • fiscal consolidation, current efforts, 173–176, 174–175f

      • fiscal rigidities, 178f,180–181f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61 t

      • public debt accumulation during financial crisis, 38 public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 42, 43t, 44–45f, 46, 47, 48–49f, 50, 50t, 51, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

      • sovereign debt restructuring (2005–12), 211 t

      • total public debt (2004–13), 213f

    • St. Lucia

      • central government debt-to-GDP ratio, 194f

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt management framework, 69t

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210t

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61 t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 164f,165, 166, 166f

      • fiscal rigidities, 180–181f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61t

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 43t, 44–45f, 46, 47, 48–49f, 49, 50t, 51, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

      • stabilization of public-debt-to-GDP ratios, 142–143

    • St. Vincent and the Grenadines

      • central government debt-to-GDP ratio, 194f

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt management framework, 69t

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210t

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • debt write-offs, post-2000, 278b

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 164f, 166f

      • fiscal consolidation (1993–96 and 1998–2011), 166

      • fiscal rigidities, 178f, 180–181f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61t

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 42, 43t, 44–45f, 45, 47, 48–49f, 50t, 51, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

    • Social, economic, and political context, 3–7, 4t

    • Social partnership arrangements, 5

    • Social security schemes, 12, 42–43, 44f, 177, 260f, 261, 276

    • See also specific countries

    • South Africa

      • fiscal adjustment (1993–2001), 122–123

      • large debt reduction (1999–2008), 89–90, 89f

      • Revenue Authority, establishment of, 89–90

    • Sovereign bond debt, 207–208

    • Spain, fiscal adjustment (1996–97), 117

    • Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models, 190, 202

    • Sugar industry, 173

    • Suriname

      • central government debt-to-GDP ratio, 194f

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt levels (1997–2011), 27

      • debt management framework, 70t

      • debt management laws, 13

      • debt restructuring, 205

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210t

      • debt restructuring, post–2000, 278b

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • exchange rate regimes, 6

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61 t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 164f, 165, 166, 166f

      • fiscal rigidities, 178f, 180–181f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61t

      • public debt accumulation during financial crisis, 38

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 42, 43t, 44–45f, 45, 46, 47, 48–49f, 49, 50t, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

    • Swan-Salter model, 232

    • Sweden, fiscal adjustment (1994–98), 117

    • System generalized method of moments (GMM), 242n3, 268–270

    T

    • Tobago. See Trinidad and Tobago

    • Tourism-dependent economies

      • fiscal consolidation in, 163, 163f, 165

      • global financial crisis, impacts on, 31, 35–36, 38, 39f

      • natural disasters and, 183

      • primary expenditure and revenue, regional average, 33–34, 35f

      • public debt increases in, 1

      • See also specific countries

    • Trade openness

      • fiscal multipliers and, 19, 189, 191

      • by global region, 193f

      • in microstates, 235, 239, 241

    • Trinidad and Tobago

      • central government debt-to-GDP ratio, 194f

      • change in government debt (1997–2011), 28f

      • concessionality of external debt (2003–11), 50t

      • contingent fiscal liabilities (2012), 64t

      • cyclically adjusted primary balance (1997–2011), 28f

      • debt management framework, 70t

      • debt restructuring, 205

      • debt restructuring (1978–2013), 210t

      • debt restructuring, selected indicators (2011), 227t

      • debt stabilizing balances (2011/2020), 143t

      • decline of debt (1997–2011), 27

      • decomposition of accumulations (2008–11), 39f

      • domestic bonds, 12

      • exchange rate regimes, 6

      • external debt service (2002–16), 61t

      • external vs. domestic debt (2011), 12f

      • fiscal consolidation (1980–2011), 162t, 164f, 166f

      • fiscal consolidation (1999–2002), 166

      • fiscal rigidities, 178f, 180–181 f

      • gross financing needs (2012–16), 59–60t

      • industrial relations, 7

      • interest rate structure (2011), 48f

      • new external debt commitments (2003–11), 62t

      • proportion of external debt stock with variable interest rate (2003–11), 61 t

      • public debt by instruments (2011), 45f

      • public debt, profile of, 42, 43t, 44–45f, 45, 46, 47, 48–49f, 49, 50t, 222–223f

      • public external debt arrears (2003–11), 63t

      • required haircut to achieve debt

      • sustainability, 219t

      • selected debt indicators (2001–11), 57–58t

      • share of interest payments in total

      • expenditures (2011), 177f

      • social and economic indicators (2012), 4t

      • trade unionism in, 7

      • transfers and fiscal rigidities, 181

    U

    • United Kingdom (U.K.)

      • Commonwealth Debt Initiative, 278b

      • fiscal adjustment (1995–98), 118

      • large debt reduction, post-WWI, 77

      • political systemic legacy in Caribbean, 7

    • United States (U.S.)

      • fiscal adjustment (1994), 118–119

      • large debt reduction, post-WWII, 77

      • tax elasticity, comparison of, 196–197

      • U.S. dollar and foreign currency debt, 12

    V

    • Value added tax (VAT), 275–276, 279

    • Vanuatu, large debt reduction (2002–07), 90–91, 90f

    • Venezuela, PetroCaribe Arrangement, 224, 224n17

    W

    • West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), adoption of fiscal rules, 260–261, 262, 264–265

    • World Bank

      • Debt Management Performance Assessment framework, 13

      • on large debt reduction, 76

      • World Development Indicators (WDI), 238, 247t

      • See also specific programs

    • World Development Indicators (WDI) (World Bank), 238, 247t

    Z

    • Zambia, fiscal adjustment (1989–1994), 124–125

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