Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Hamid Faruqee, and Krishna Srinivasan
Published Date:
August 2013
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    Index

    [Page numbers followed by b, f, n, or t refer to boxed text, figures, footnotes, or tables, respectively.]

    A

    Advanced economies

    • need for medium-term consolidation in, 150

    • policy implications from case studies for, 149, 150

    • significance of current account imbalances in, 7–8

    • structural reform needs of, 150–151

    B

    Basel III requirements, 52, 69, 117

    Borrowing, private

    • constraints to, in China, 101

    • disincentives and constraints to, in India, 81–82, 85, 86

    • imbalances in the United Kingdom and, 42, 47

    • imbalances in the United States and, 24, 25

    • patterns in the United Kingdom, 43, 43f, 44–45, 47, 50

    C

    China, external surpluses in

    • causes of, 93, 96f, 97–101, 148–149

    • credit access and, 101

    • development of, 93–96, 94f

    • domestic consumption and, 95, 97b, 106

    • exchange rate policy and, 102, 102f, 103f, 106

    • factor market distortions and, 99, 107

    • financial sector reform for addressing, 154–155

    • foreign exchange reserves and, 102–103, 103f

    • future prospects for, 96–97

    • interest rate policy and, 100, 101, 104, 104f

    • investment patterns and, 95–96, 99f, 100

    • labor market and, 94, 94n, 99, 101, 107

    • manufacturing sector growth and, 98

    • policy response to, 102–105

    • poverty rate and, 96

    • private saving and, 93–95, 94f, 98–101, 99f, 105f

    • public saving and, 93, 94f, 104, 148–149

    • rationale for rebalancing, 105

    • reform of state-owned enterprises and, 97–98, 99–100, 101

    • social welfare programs and, 101, 106

    • sterilization of foreign exchange and, 102–104

    • strategies for rebalancing, 93, 97b, 106–107, 150, 151, 154–155, 154b

    • sustainability assessment, 5–6b

    Collective action, 150–158

    policy action to achieve G20 growth objectives, 150–151

    Consumption

    • in China, 95, 97b, 106

    • in India, 84, 84f

    • recommendations for Japanese tax on, 142

    • in the United Kingdom, 39, 42, 43f, 46

    • in the United States, 21, 24, 29

    Cross-border spillovers

    • benefits of rebalancing in China, 107

    • benefits of rebalancing in Germany, 123

    • global implications of U.K. imbalances, 50–51, 54

    • global significance of U.S. economy, 32–33, 36

    • from imbalances in France, 67, 68

    • from individual current account deficits, 11

    • from individual current account surpluses, 12–14

    • macroeconomic model of, 16–18

    • risk from Japan, 140, 142

    • risk surveillance, 11, 14–15

    • threats from export-led growth strategy, 12

    Current account balances

    • assessment methodology, 8

    • beneficial imbalances, 7

    • case studies, 8, 147, 148f. See also specific country

    • detrimental imbalances, 7

    • future challenges for G20, 158–159

    • global significance of, 7–8

    • multilateral surveillance rationale, 14–15

    • policy implications from case studies, 149–158

    • saving imbalances as cause of, 147, 148f

    • simulated gains from upside scenario, 155–158, 156f, 157f, 158f

    • as source of global financial crisis, 3, 7n

    • strategy for sustainable recovery, 3, 6, 21

    • sustainability assessments, 4–6

    • systemic risk, 6–7

    • trends, 4, 4f

    • See also Deficits, current account; Internal imbalances; Surpluses, current account

    D

    Defense spending, U.S. deficits and, 22, 23b, 26

    Deficits, current account

    • causes of, in case study countries, 147–148

    • causes of, in France, 57, 62–67, 148

    • causes of, in Japan, 125, 126

    • causes of, in the United Kingdom, 39–41

    • causes of, in the United States, 21, 23b, 24, 28–31, 148

    • development in France, 57, 58–59

    • development in the United States, 21, 22–25, 22f

    • in Germany, 109

    • multilateral implications, 11

    • policy implications from case studies, 149, 159

    • positive and negative sources, 9–10

    • projections for the United Kingdom, 39–40

    • saving imbalances as cause of, 147

    • significance of France’s, 67

    • strategies for addressing imbalances in the United States, 33–36

    Demographic patterns and trends

    • employment ratios, 71f

    • entitlement spending in the United States and, 27

    • implications for current account policymaking, 7

    • in India, 85

    • in Japan, 126, 130–131

    • private saving in Germany and, 117

    Dot-com bubble, 23b

    E

    Economic growth

    • in China, 93–97, 96f

    • in Germany, 109–112, 118–119

    • global significance of U.S. performance, 32–33

    • in India, 73, 74f, 85–86

    • in Japan, 125, 128–132, 129f, 130f

    • strategies for sustainable recovery, 3

    • in the United Kingdom before financial crisis, 39–40, 40f

    • U.S. policies to restore, 21

    Emerging market economies

    • French export competitiveness and, 64

    • future growth in, 158–159

    • German export competitiveness and, 120

    • government revenues in, 80, 80f

    • policy implications from case studies for, 149

    • saving imbalances in, 148, 149, 151, 162–163

    • significance of current account imbalances in, 7–8

    • social indicators in, 78t

    • U.S. imbalances and dollar pegs in, 30–31

    Entitlement spending

    • in Japan, 133

    • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 34, 35

    • trends in the United States, 27–28, 34, 35

    • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152

    • See also Health care spending; Pension programs; Social assistance programs; Social security spending

    Euro area

    • employment patterns in, 71f

    • France’s entry into, 58–59

    • France’s export market share, 63, 64

    • significance of France’s imbalances for, 67

    • significance of German economy for, 119

    • significance of imbalances in, 8

    Exchange rate

    • China’s, 97, 102, 102f, 103f, 106, 154b

    • France’s, 65f, 69–70

    • Germany’s, 113–114

    • model of cross-border effects of, 16–18

    • undervalued, 12

    • U.S. external imbalances and, 30, 31

    Export-led growth

    • definition, 10

    • multilateral risk, 12

    • as source of surpluses, 10

    F

    Financial sector

    • benefits of rebalancing for China’s reform of, 105

    • causes of financial crisis, 29–30

    • causes of imbalances in the United Kingdom, 39, 42, 50

    • future prospects in the United Kingdom, 46

    • growth in the United Kingdom, 48–49

    • liquidity requirements in India, 81, 89

    • liquidity requirements in the United Kingdom, 52–53

    • recommendations for reform of China’s, 106

    • recommendations for reform of Germany’s, 120, 121

    • strategies for addressing India’s imbalances, 89

    • strategies for addressing U.K. imbalances, 52–54

    • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 34–35

    • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152–153

    • See also Regulation, financial

    Fiscal imbalances. See Internal imbalances

    Fiscal stimulus

    • China’s response to financial crisis, 96f

    • Japan’s spending, 131–132

    • outcomes in France, 61

    • outcomes in Germany, 118

    • outcomes in the United Kingdom, 45

    • U.S. response to financial crisis, 27

    France

    • causes of imbalances in, 57, 60–67, 148

    • composition of current account balances in, 58f

    • development of imbalances in, 57–59

    • entitlement and social welfare spending in, 59–61, 69

    • exchange rate patterns, 65f

    • export competitiveness, 62–64, 69–71

    • financial crisis outcomes in, 59

    • labor market, 63–64, 65–67, 66f, 70, 154b

    • Organic Law, 69

    • private saving–investment balance, 57, 58f, 59f

    • productivity issues, 63, 64f, 69–70, 72, 154b

    • projected balances, 59–60

    • public debt in, 57, 59, 60f, 61, 62f, 67

    • public saving–investment balance, 57, 59f

    • regulatory reforms, 69–70

    • significance of imbalances in, 67

    • strategies for addressing imbalances in, 57, 59–60, 68–72, 149

    • sustainability assessment, 5–6b

    • tax reforms, 70–71, 71

    G

    Germany

    • causes of external surpluses in, 109, 112–117, 149

    • current account projections for, 112

    • effects of reunification, 109, 110–111, 118

    • exchange rate, 113–114, 115

    • financial crisis outcomes in, 112, 118

    • financial sector, 120

    • fiscal imbalances in, 118

    • impediments to saving in, 116–117

    • labor market, 111, 112–113, 120, 123

    • manufacturing exports, 113, 113f

    • population aging in, 117

    • private domestic investment in, 109, 111–112, 111f, 115–116, 118–119, 119f

    • private saving in, 109, 112, 115, 116–117

    • productivity issues in, 116, 118, 119, 120, 121, 154b

    • public debt in, 109, 112, 118, 119, 122

    • public saving in, 116

    • rationale for addressing imbalances in, 118–119

    • recent economic performance, 109–112, 110f

    • strategies for addressing imbalances in, 109, 119–123, 150

    • sustainability assessment, 5–6b

    • tax policy, 111, 120, 122, 123, 123n

    • venture capital market, 115, 116f, 120

    • wages, 109, 110, 111, 112–114, 114f, 118, 120

    • women in workforce, 120, 152, 154b

    • work rule reforms, 110–111

    Global financial crisis

    • causes of, 7n, 13–14, 25, 29–30, 29n

    • Group of Twenty response, 3

    • outcomes in France, 59

    • outcomes in Germany, 112, 118

    • outcomes in Japan, 127

    • outcomes in the United States, 25, 27

    • precrisis analysis of imbalances, 11

    • recovery status, 4

    • significance of current account balances in recovery from, 3, 7–8

    Group of Twenty, 3

    • assessment of key imbalances in, 4–6

    • collective action to achieve growth objectives of, 150–158

    • future policymaking challenges, 159

    • Mutual Assessment Process, 3, 4–6, 159

    • national saving and investment patterns, 42f

    • public debt, 126f

    • revenue collection, 80, 80f

    • structural reform needs, 152, 153–154b

    • tax and entitlement reform recommendations, 152

    • See also specific country

    H

    Health care spending

    • fiscal imbalances in the United States and, 23b, 27

    • in France, 69

    • in India, 89

    • life expectancy in the United States and, 27f

    • recommendations for China, 106

    • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 34

    • in the United Kingdom, 41

    Housing bubble

    • U.K., 39, 43–45, 47–48, 148

    • U.S., 7n, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30

    I

    Incomes, household

    • in China, 93–94, 95f, 105

    • French household saving and, 76

    • in India, 84, 84f

    • in Japan, 133, 134

    • in U.K., 42, 43f, 44, 46

    • U.S. household saving and, 36

    India

    • balance of payments crisis (1991), 73

    • bond market, 89

    • causes of imbalances in, 73, 77–85, 148

    • credit access in, 85, 86

    • demographic trends in, 85

    • financial controls in, 81–84, 89, 90

    • Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 74–75

    • future challenges for, 77

    • government securities, 81, 83, 83t, 84n

    • health care spending, 89

    • infrastructure investment, 86

    • labor market, 154b

    • macroeconomic stability, 87

    • private saving and investment in, 73, 75–77, 76f, 82f, 83f, 84–85

    • public debt, 73, 73f, 74–75, 77, 86–87

    • public saving and investment in, 75, 76f

    • public spending in, 78–79, 88–89

    • recent economic performance, 73–77, 74f

    • revenue collection, 78, 79–81, 87–88, 90

    • significance of fiscal imbalances in, 85–87

    • size of deficits, 73

    • social indicators, 78, 78t, 79

    • strategies for addressing imbalances in, 87–90

    • subsidy programs, 88

    • sustainability assessment, 5–6b

    Indicative guidelines for sustainability assessments, 4–6, 5–6b, 5f

    Interest rates

    • in China, 100, 101, 104, 104f

    • future prospects for the United States, 31, 33

    • global financial crisis and, 29n

    • global spillovers of rebalancing in China, 107

    • India’s, 81–82, 83–84

    • model of cross-border effects, 16–18

    • saving behavior and, 47

    • as source of global imbalances, 13–14

    • in the United Kingdom, 47, 50

    • in the United States, 24, 25, 29, 31, 33

    Internal imbalances

    • causes of, in France, 60–61

    • causes of, in India, 73, 77–85

    • causes of, in the United States, 22, 23, 23b, 26–28

    • development in India, 73, 74–75

    • development in the United States, 21, 22f, 25

    • future challenges for the United States, 27–28

    • future prospects for France, 59–60

    • in Germany, 118

    • outcomes of global financial crisis in the United States, 27

    • patterns in France, 58–59

    • significance of France’s, 67

    • significance of India’s, 85–87

    • strategy for sustainable recovery, 3, 6, 21

    • trends, 4

    International Monetary Fund

    • assessment of key imbalances in G20 countries, 4–6

    • exchange rate policy obligations, 12n

    Investment, private

    • as cause of imbalances in case studies, 148, 149

    • in China, 95–96, 96–97, 100

    • in France, 57, 58f, 59f

    • in Germany, 109, 111–112, 111f, 115–116, 118–119, 119f

    • impediments to, 115–117, 129

    • in India, 75–76, 86

    • in Japan, 127, 129, 131

    • in the United Kingdom, 40f, 41, 42, 42f, 46

    • in the United States, 24

    Investment, public

    • in France, 59f

    • in India, 75

    • in Japan, 127–128

    J

    Japan

    • causes of fiscal deficits, 125, 126, 128–138, 147, 148

    • demographic trends, 126, 130–131

    • distribution of government spending, 134f, 141–142

    • earthquake (2011), 127

    • external surpluses, 127, 149

    • financial crisis outcomes, 127

    • Fiscal Management Strategy, 141

    • government bond market, 137–138, 138f, 139, 140

    • household income, 133, 134

    • investment patterns in, 127, 129, 131

    • labor market, 130–131, 130f, 136, 141, 154b

    • monetary policy, 131–132

    • nonfinancial corporate saving, 136–137, 136f

    • pension program, 142

    • private saving, 125, 128, 134–137, 135f

    • productivity trends, 129, 154b

    • projected imbalances, 128, 132

    • public debt, 125, 132f, 139–140, 139f

    • rationale for addressing imbalances in, 125, 138–140

    • recent economic performance, 125, 126f, 130f

    • relationship between household and corporate saving, 135b

    • risk of global spillover effects of imbalances in, 140, 142

    • services sector, 129, 131, 141

    • small- and medium-sized firms, 131, 141

    • social welfare and entitlement spending, 133, 134f, 142

    • state-owned financial institutions, 138

    • strategies for addressing imbalances in, 125, 140–142, 149, 150

    • sustainability assessment, 5–6b

    • tax policy and collection, 132–133, 133t, 136–137, 141–142

    • wages, 136

    • women in workforce, 141, 152, 154b

    L

    Labor markets

    • China’s, 94, 94n, 99, 101, 107

    • France’s export competitiveness and, 63–64, 65–67, 70, 154b

    • German, 109, 110, 111, 112–114, 114f, 120, 123

    • India’s, 154b

    • international comparison of demographic patterns, 71f

      Japan’s, 130–131, 130f, 136, 141, 154b

    • recommended reforms for France, 70, 72

    • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 34

    • tax percentage of labor costs, 121f

    • U.K., 154b

    • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152, 153–154b

    • U.S., 34, 154b

    • women’s participation in, 71t, 120, 141, 152, 154b

    • See also Productivity

    Liquidity trap, 7, 13, 14, 15, 16–18, 107

    M

    Monetary policy

    • sources of Japan’s slow growth, 131–132

    • strategies for addressing U.K. imbalances, 51–52

    • U.S., global financial crisis and, 29n

    Mutual Assessment Process, 159

    • indicative guidelines, 4–6, 5–6b, 5f

    • objectives, 3

    • origins, 3

    O

    Oil market, U.S. external imbalances and, 31

    Originate-to-distribute lending, 29

    P

    Pension programs

    • in China, 101

    • in France, 59–60, 69

    • in Japan, 142

    • in the United Kingdom, 51

    • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152

    • in the United States, 27–28

    Pittsburgh Summit, 3

    Policymaking

    • beneficial current account imbalances, 7

    • China’s response to rising saving, 102–105

    • detrimental current account imbalances, 7

    • export-led growth, 12

    • future challenges for G20 countries, 159

    • future challenges for the United States, 31–33

    • lessons from case studies, 149–158, 159

    • multilateral surveillance rationale, 14–15

    • shortcomings of U.S. fiscal rules, 28

    • sources of China’s economic growth, 97–98, 99–100

    • sources of U.S. twin deficit, 22–25

    • strategies for addressing China’s imbalances, 93, 97b, 106–107

    • strategies for addressing France’s imbalances, 59–60

    • strategies for addressing Germany’s imbalances, 109, 119–123

    • strategies for addressing India’s imbalances, 87–90

    • strategies for addressing Japan’s imbalances, 140–142

    • strategies for addressing U.K. imbalances, 51–54

    • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 33–36

    • U.K. response to financial crisis, 45–46

    • upside scenario, 150, 151–155

    Political functioning

    • obstacles to fiscal rebalancing in the United States, 28

    • public spending in India and, 77, 78–79

    Poverty in China, 96

    Privatization, of China’s housing stock, 101

    Productivity

    • in China, 103f, 154b

    • in France, 63, 64f, 69–70, 72, 154b

    • in Germany, 116, 118, 119, 120, 121, 154b

    • in India, 154b

    • in Japan, 129, 141, 154b

    • in the United Kingdom, 42

    • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152, 154b

    Product markets

    • regulation in OECD countries, 66f

    • rigidities in France, 65–67, 70, 72

    • upside scenario of policy reforms, 152, 153–154b

    Public debt

    • in France, 57, 59, 60f, 61, 62f, 67, 68–69

    • in Germany, 109, 112, 118, 119, 122

    • in India, 73, 73f, 74–75, 77, 78–84, 86–87

    • in Japan, 125, 132f, 139–140, 139f

    • U.K. strategies to reduce, 48

    • in the United Kingdom, 45–46, 45f, 48–49

    • in the United States, 27, 28, 31, 32f, 33

    R

    Regulation, business

    • corporate saving in Germany and, 116–117

    • in France, 70

    • recommendations for Japan, 141

    • recommendations for rebalancing China’s surplus, 107

    • upside scenario product market reforms for G20 countries, 154b

    Regulation, financial

    • as cause of current account imbalances, 148

    • in development of U.K. imbalances, 50

    • in France, 69–70

    • in India, 81–84, 85–86, 86n, 90

    • strategies for addressing U.K. imbalances, 52–54

    • in the United States, 21, 24, 29–30, 34–35

    S

    Saving, private

    • as cause of current account deficits, 147, 148

    • in China, 93–95, 94f, 96–97, 98–101, 99f, 100f, 105f

    • corporate veil theory, 135b

    • in France, 57, 58f, 59f

    • in G20 countries, 42f

    • in Germany, 109, 112, 115, 116–117

    • in India, 73, 75–77, 76f, 83f, 84–85

    • in Japan, 125, 128, 134–137, 135f, 136f

    • sources of detrimental imbalances, 7

    • in the United Kingdom, 39, 40f, 41–42, 41f, 42f, 44–45, 46–48

    • in the United States, 24, 25, 28, 32, 36

    Saving, public

    • causes of current account surpluses, 147

    • in China, 93–94, 94f, 104, 148–149

    • cross-border policy effects, 13–14

    • in France, 57, 59f

    • in Germany, 116

    • in India, 75

    • in Japan, 128

    • model of cross-border policy effects, 16–18

    • sources of detrimental imbalances, 7

    • strategies for addressing external imbalances, 147–148

    • in the United Kingdom, 40–41, 40f, 41f, 45–46, 51

    • in the United States, 21, 22f, 24, 36

    Seoul summit, 3

    Social assistance programs

    • in China, 101, 106

    • in India, 78, 79, 88–89

    • See also Entitlement spending

    Social security spending

    • in France, 57, 59, 60–61

    • in Japan, 126, 133, 134f

    • in the United States, 23b, 27–28, 34

    Stability and Growth Pact, 59, 109, 118

    State-owned enterprises

    • Japanese saving and insurance institutions, 138

    • recommendations for China’s, 107

    • sources of China’s economic growth, 97–98, 99–100, 101

    Subsidies

    • China’s factor market distortions, 99, 107

    • India’s, 88

    Surpluses, current account

    • causes of Germany’s, 112–118

    • in export-led growth strategy, 12

    • influences on public saving behavior and, 147–148

    • in Japan, 127, 127f

    • model of spillover effects, 16–18

    • multilateral implications, 11, 12–14

    • multilateral surveillance rationale, 15

    • patterns and trends in Germany, 109–112, 110f

    • policy implications from case studies, 149, 150, 159

    • positive and negative sources, 10, 12

    • in recent German history, 109–112, 110f

    • saving imbalances as cause of, 147

    • as source of global financial crisis, 13–14

    • strategies for reducing Germany’s, 119–123

    • structural reform needs in advanced economies, 150–151

    • See also China, external surpluses in

    Surveillance

    • rationale, 14–15

    • risk indicators, 11

    T

    Tax policy and collection

    • in France, 70–71, 71

    • in Germany, 111, 121f, 122f

    • in India, 78, 79–81, 87–88, 90

    • international comparison, 80f

    • in Japan, 132–133, 133t, 136–137, 141–142

    • strategies for addressing Germany’s imbalances, 120, 122, 123, 123n

    • strategies for improving U.S. economy, 34, 35

    • in the United Kingdom, 48–49, 49f, 52

    • upside scenario policy reforms for G20 countries, 152, 153b

    • in the United States, 22, 23b, 26, 26n, 27, 34, 35

    U

    U.K. See United Kingdom

    United Kingdom (U.K.)

    • causes of imbalances in, 39, 46–50, 148

    • credit conditions, 47, 50

    • development of imbalances in, 39–45

    • Financial Policy Committee, 52, 53

    • financial sector, 48–49, 50, 52–53

    • future prospects, 45–46, 50

    • global implications of imbalances in, 50–51, 54

    • household wealth and debt trends, 43–45, 43f, 44f

    • interest rates, 47, 50

    • monetary policy, 51–52

    • policy responses to financial crisis, 45–46

    • private consumption in, 39, 42, 43f, 46

    • private investment in, 40f, 41, 42, 42f, 46

    • private saving in, 39, 40f, 41f, 42f 41–42, 44–45, 46–48

    • productivity issues, 42

    • public debt, 45–46, 45f, 48–49

    • public saving in, 40–41, 40f, 41f, 45–46, 51

    • rationale for addressing imbalances in, 50

    • strategies for addressing imbalances in, 39, 51–54, 149

    • sustainability assessment, 5–6b

    • tax policy and collections, 48–49, 49f, 52

    United States (U.S.)

    • causes of external imbalances, 21, 28–31, 148

    • causes of internal imbalances, 23b, 26–28

    • defense spending, 22, 23b, 26

    • development of deficits in, 21–25, 22f

    • exchange rates, 30, 31

    • financial regulation in, 21, 24, 29–30, 34–35

    • foreign investment in, 24, 25f, 26f, 30–31, 30f, 32

    • future challenges, 21, 32–33

    • global significance of economy of, 32–33

    • home equity extractions preceding financial crisis, 24, 24f

    • housing boom, 7n, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30

    • interest rates, 24, 25, 29, 31, 33

    • labor market, 34, 154b

    • national saving and investment, 21, 22f, 24, 36

    • onset and effects of financial crisis, 25, 27, 29

    • PAYGO rule, 28, 28n

    • private consumption in, 21

    • private investment in, 24

    • private saving in, 24, 25, 28, 32, 36

    • public debt, 27, 28, 31, 32f, 33

    • rationale for addressing imbalances in, 31

    • rebalancing strategies, 21, 33–36, 149

    • social welfare and entitlement spending, 23b, 27–28, 34, 35

    • sustainability assessment, 5–6b

    • tax policy and collection, 22, 23b, 26, 26n, 27, 34, 35

    Upside scenario

    • policy reforms under, 150–155

    • simulated gains from, 155–158, 156f, 157f

    U.S. See United States

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