Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Ashoka Mody
Published Date:
April 2013
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    Index

    [Page numbers followed by b, f, n, or t refer to boxed text, figures, footnotes, or tables, respectively.]

    A

    • Access to capital

      • current account balance dynamics and, 199, 200, 202, 214–215

      • future challenges and opportunities, 10

      • initial public offerings in Germany and, 71

      • obstacles to technology investment in Europe, 57

      • See also Credit market regulation

    • Agriculture sector, projected output gaps, 45f

    • Asian economies

      • future challenges for Germany’s growth, 2, 10

      • Germany’s integration with, in early 2000s, 13

      • global competition, 15–16, 217

      • See also specific Asian nation

    • Austria

      • fiscal consolidation spillover effects, 150, 174, 176, 180, 182

      • generation and transmission of spillovers, 124, 126, 127, 129, 162, 186, 247

      • growth spillover effects, 121, 122

      • post-World War II growth, 5

    • Automatic stabilization, 21n, 157, 158, 172, 242, 246

    B

    • Banking. See Financial sector

    • Baseline econometric modeling, 205, 206–207

    • Belgium

      • fiscal consolidation spillover effects, 150, 165, 170, 174, 176, 180, 184, 186

      • generation and transmission of spillovers, 121, 124, 126, 127, 129, 162, 186

      • trade patterns, 110

    • Beveridge curve, 91, 92f

    • Brazil, 162, 172

    C

    • Canada

      • generation and transmission of spillover effects, 121, 127, 128, 129, 153

      • international financial linkages, 112

      • responses to U.S. growth shocks, 102

    • Capital account openness, 214–215

    • China

      • credit market deregulation, 210

      • current account surpluses of 2000s, 16

      • domestic investment patterns, 16

      • European trade, 2, 111

      • generation and transmission of shocks, 100, 111, 162, 170, 184

      • German exports to, 15, 22–23, 22f

      • German imports from, 217, 218f

      • as global competitor, 28

      • wage patterns and trends, 210

    • Cloud computing, 72

    • Collective bargaining agreements, 24, 89b

    • Consolidation, fiscal

      • spillover effects of synchronization of, 149–150, 151, 186

      • See also Fiscal spillover effects on recovery

    • Corporate investment, 218–219, 219f

    • Corporate profits, 7, 16, 218–219

    • Credit market regulation

      • current account imbalances and, 200, 201, 204, 209f, 214, 215, 221, 254

      • Germany’s, 201n

      • measures of, 201n, 214, 223

    • Current account balances

      • current literature on, 202–205

      • cyclical sources of current imbalances, 16, 201, 216, 254–255

      • data sources, 223

      • economic significance of, 252

      • effect of long-standing structural packages, 212–215, 225–234t

      • effect of structural factors on fundamental determinants of, 201, 210, 211, 215, 216f, 235–237t

      • findings from baseline econometric modeling, 205–206

      • fundamental determinants of, 200, 202, 206–207

      • Germany’s current surplus, 1, 2, 16, 31, 200, 201, 217, 218f, 255

      • in Germany’s reemergence (2004–08), 1, 10, 14–16, 201

      • in Germany’s slowdown period (1960s–2004), 7, 8f

      • imbalances prior to Great Recession, 199, 200, 204–205

      • implications for recovery from financial crisis, 199

      • modeling methodology, 200, 205–207, 252–254

      • rationale for mitigation of distortions in, 199–200

      • strategies for reducing imbalances, 16, 201, 217–221, 220t

      • structural factors in dynamics of, 202–204, 208–210, 253–256

      • structural sources of current imbalances, 16, 199, 200, 201, 202, 220–221

      • unification effects, 7, 255

      • U.S. economy, 3

      • See also Target 2 system

    D

    • Demographics. See Population aging

    • Distribution services, 67–68

    • Domestic demand and consumption

      • course of Great Recession, 21, 23f

      • current account balances of 2000s and 16

      • employment patterns and, 16, 17f, 23, 23f

      • future challenges for growth, 2–3

      • Germany as global engine of growth and, 25

      • growth correlations, 127–129, 128t

      • Hartz reforms and, 255

      • post-World War II recovery, 4, 7

      • spillover effects and, 25, 99, 105, 249

      • U.S., 3

    • Domestic investment and savings

      • causes of low investment in Germany, 16, 201

      • in current account balance dynamics, 203

      • future economic growth and, 49

      • Germany’s current account imbalances and, 16, 201, 202, 218–219

      • during Germany’s reemergence period (2004–08), 16

      • Great Recession effects, 19

      • obstacles to, in Germany, 57, 69–72, 219–220

      • population aging and, 29–30

      • productivity lags related to investment lags in ICT, 49

      • sectoral differences in Europe and Germany, 238f

      • sources of current global account imbalances, 200

    E

    • ECB, 26

    • Economic growth in Germany, 4f, 76t

      • employment patterns and, 78–79

      • future challenges, 1, 2–3, 27–30, 38, 50, 255–256

      • Great Recession effects, 1, 19–23, 20f, 21f, 22f, 38, 90, 239

      • intensive growth, 7

      • international comparisons, 2, 3

      • phases of, 1–2, 3, 31

      • post-World War II period (1940s–60s), 3–5, 6f, 30–31

      • projections, 239–241, 240f

      • reemergence period (2004–08), 9–13, 31

      • reunification effects, 1, 2, 7

      • slowdown period (1960s-2000s), 5–9, 55

      • sources of, 61, 62f, 64t, 240f

      • See also Exports, Germany’s; Potential GDP

    • Educational investments, 242

    • Employment patterns

      • cyclical patterns in Germany, 78, 80–84, 86f

      • definition of potential GDP, 38–39

      • domestic demand and consumption patterns and, 16, 17f, 23, 23f

      • future challenges for Germany, 31, 49

      • Great Recession outcomes, 20, 21f, 43–44, 77, 80–84, 81f, 82f, 84f, 244, 244t, 245, 245t

      • international comparison, 43f, 79f, 80, 82f

      • intersectoral differences in financial crisis outcomes, 244, 245t

      • post-World War II recovery, 4–5, 16–17, 17f

      • replacement rate, 201, 209f, 211, 212, 216, 220, 224, 253–254

      • services sector, 66b

      • in slowdown period (1960s–2000s), 7, 78–79

      • unification effects, 7

      • work-time adjustments in response to financial crisis, 12, 24, 83–84, 84f, 92, 242–243, 246–247

      • See also Labor market, Germany; Wages and income

    • Employment protection legislation, 7, 24, 90, 90n, 254

      • current account balance dynamics and, 209f, 211, 212–214

      • data sources, 224

      • See also Hartz reforms

    • Europe, Germany and

      • determinants of productivity performance, 58b

      • evidence of spillover effects in recovery, 97–98

      • export growth in 2000s, 13–16, 13f, 14f, 217, 217f

      • fiscal policy spillover effects, 25–26, 152, 166, 182

      • Germany as regional locomotive of growth, 2, 25

      • Hartz-like labor reforms of 1990s, 12–13, 24

      • investment patterns preceding financial crisis, 219f

      • labor unit labor cost evolution (1990–2010), 9f

      • obstacles to technology investments, 57, 69–72

      • perceptions of Germany’s international role and responsibilities, 2, 10, 25–26, 31

      • post-World War II recovery, 4–5

      • productivity growth patterns, 55, 56–57

      • recent wage rises, 11, 11f

      • sectoral savings and investment behavior, 238f

      • sensitivity to external shocks, 115–116, 243

      • in slowdown period (1960s–2000), 5–6, 6f

      • sources of current account imbalances, 14–16

      • sources of growth spillovers, 97, 102–103, 112–114, 115–118, 130–131, 247

      • spillover effects of decline in German spending, 160–162, 161t

      • strategies for productivity improvement, 73

      • transmission of spillover effects, 102, 124, 126, 127

      • See also Target 2 system; specific country

    • European Monetary Union

      • fiscal policy spillovers, 243

      • generation and transmission of shocks, 102, 115, 130

      • sensitivity to U.S. shocks, 116–118

      • spillover risks, 110–112, 110t

      • trade channel transmission of chocks, 126, 127f

      • trade patterns, 110–111, 110t

      • See also Europe, Germany and; specific country

    • European Recovery Program, 4

    • Exchange rates

      • in current account balance dynamics, 203

      • synchronized fiscal consolidation effects on recovery, 149

    • Exports, Germany’s

      • future challenges, 2–3

      • Great Recession as export shock, 24, 36–38, 89–90, 239

      • Great Recession effects, 19, 22–23, 22f, 36, 242

      • international comparison of growth in 2000s, 14f, 217, 217f

      • post-World War II growth, 1, 2, 4, 4t, 5

      • product specialization, 13, 13f, 28

      • in reemergence period (2004–08), 10, 13–16, 13f, 14f

      • significance of, in Germany economy, 1, 35–36, 36f, 36n

      • in slowdown period (1960s–2000s), 7, 8f

      • source of Germany’s current account surplus, 217, 218f

    F

    • Financial integration

      • current account balance dynamics and, 202, 206, 223

      • spillover transmission and, 1–3, 102, 110

    • Financial sector

      • cross-border spillover risk, 110, 111t, 112

      • German bank claims on foreign banks, 250–251, 251f

      • linkage to current account balance, 203, 204

      • mechanisms of spillover transmission, 103–104, 110, 111t, 112, 130

      • policy strategies for reducing global current account imbalances, 201

      • in post-World War II recovery, 5

      • productivity, 67–68

      • public share of, 201, 220, 221

      • response to Great Recession onset, 20–21

    • Finland, 121, 122, 127, 129

    • Fiscal spillover effects on recovery

      • analytical methodology, 150–151, 155–159

      • automatic stabilization effects, 172–174

      • concerns, 149–150

      • current expectations, 149

      • data sources, 159

      • effect of increased consolidation, 180–182

      • effects of higher multipliers and import elasticities, 150, 154, 179–180, 181f, 189t

      • within Europe, 103

      • findings from literature, 151–155

      • future prospects, 186–187

      • growth impact of coordinated relaxation, 182, 183t

      • growth outcomes, 170, 171t, 172f

      • impact of spending reductions, 159–166, 164t, 165f, 166f, 190–191t

      • limitations, 25–26

      • outcomes of 2011–12 consolidation plans, 166–180, 169t, 170f, 192–197t

      • trade balance outcomes, 182–186, 184t, 185t

      • use of real revenues and expenditures in simulation, 174–179

    • Foreign direct investment

      • current account balance dynamics and, 203

      • domestic corporate investment and, 219f

      • spillover effects, 100

    • France

      • generation and transmission of shocks, 97, 98–99, 113–114, 121, 122, 124, 127, 129, 130, 142–143f, 162, 170, 247

      • German trade with, 15

      • Great Recession impact in, 19

      • sensitivity to external shocks, 113, 116–118, 126, 153

    G

    • GDP. See Gross domestic product

    • German Council of Economic Experts, growth projections of, 239, 241

    • Germany

      • banking sector competitiveness, 254

      • credit market regulation, 214

      • current account surplus, 200, 201, 217

      • current economy, 255

      • economic resilience, 1, 2, 19, 30–31

      • explanations for recovery from Great Recession, 1–2, 20–24, 31, 35, 93b, 239, 255

      • fiscal policy spillover effects, 150–151, 160, 166–180, 182–184

      • generation and transmission of spillovers, 97, 98, 99, 112–113, 116–118, 121, 122, 129, 130–131, 140–141f

      • investment patterns in Reemergence period, 16, 201

      • obstacles to investment, 57, 69–72, 219–220

      • sensitivity to external shocks, 115–116

      • strategies for reducing current account imbalances, 201, 217–221, 220, 220t, 221

      • tax system, 220

      • transmission of shocks, 115–116

      • unemployment benefits in, 220

      • See also Domestic demand and consumption; Domestic investment and savings; Economic growth in Germany; Europe, Germany and; Labor market, Germany’s; Manufacturing sector, Germany’s; Productivity, Germany’s; Service sector, Germany’s

    • Globalization

      • competition and trade during Germany’s reemergence period (2004–08), 12–13

      • future challenges for Germany’s manufacturing sector, 10

      • Germany as transmitter of global trade impulses, 25

      • Germany’s economic slowdown of 1970s/80s and, 7

      • Germany’s labor reforms in 2000s and, 12–13

      • Germany’s post-World War II economic performance, 1, 2

      • perceptions of Germany’s roles and responsibilities, 10, 25–26, 31

      • See also Fiscal spillover effects on recovery; Spillover effects in recovery; Trade

    • Great Recession (2008–09), 1

      • capital flows in eurozone, 26

      • employment outcomes in Germany, 12, 20, 21f, 23f, 24, 44, 77, 80–84, 81f, 82f, 84f, 244, 245, 245t

      • explanations for Germany’s recovery, 1–2, 20–24, 31, 35, 93b, 239, 255

      • as export shock for Germany, 24, 36–38, 89–90, 239

      • Germany’s institutional and policy responses to, 23–24, 88

      • global current account imbalances and, 199, 204–205

      • international comparison of employment outcomes, 82f

      • lessons from German experience, 93, 245–246

      • outcomes in Germany, 19–20, 35, 38, 50, 90, 254

      • outcomes in U.S., 80

      • output declines, 19–20, 20f, 35

      • projected outcomes in potential GDP, 39–40, 43–46

      • protective factors in German labor market, 35, 77, 90–92, 93b, 242–243, 245–247, 255

      • Target 2 balances, 26, 26f, 27f

      • trade outcomes, 2, 19, 22–23, 22f

      • See also Fiscal spillover effects on recovery; Spillover effects in recovery

    • Greece

      • fiscal consolidation spillover effects, 184

      • generation of spillover effects, 122, 127, 128, 160, 247

      • growth spillover effects, 122

      • sensitivity to external shocks, 113–114, 115, 124, 160, 166, 172, 176

    • Gross domestic product

      • adjusting spillover effects for size of, 248

    • Gross domestic product (GDP)

      • adjusting spillover effects for size of, 248

      • external and domestic demand and, 127–129, 128t, 129f

      • in Germany’s slowdown period (1960s–2000), 5, 7

      • Great Recession effects, 19, 20f, 34, 36, 37, 37f, 38, 80

      • growth composition in Germany and U.S., 62f

      • growth expectation in 1990s and early 2000s, 8–9, 9f

      • growth spillovers in crisis and recovery, 118–123, 118t, 119–120f

      • international comparison of growth, 14f, 36f, 37f

      • per hour worked and per capita GDP, 60f, 76t

      • post-World War II per capita, 6f

      • unification effects, 7

      • volatility of Germany’s, 2, 3, 17–18, 18f

      • See also Economic growth in Germany; Potential GDP

    • Group of Seven, 118–121

    • Group of Twenty, 20–21

    H

    • Hartz reforms, 11–13, 24, 49, 49n, 77, 80, 85–88, 92, 93b, 96, 210n, 242, 243–244, 245, 255

    I

    • ICT. See Information and communications technology

    • Immigration policies, 7, 49, 49n

    • Imports, Germany’s

      • international comparison of growth in 2000s, 15f, 219f

      • post-World War II patterns, 4, 4t

      • source of current account surplus, 217, 218–219

      • sources, 15, 15f, 217, 218f

      • transmission of spillover effects, 249–250

    • India, 162

    • Inflation

      • future challenges for Germany, 255–256

      • projected outcomes of Great Recession, 44–45, 46f

    • Information and communications technology

      • education of workforce for, 242

      • future challenges and opportunities, 10, 55, 72

      • German investments, 61, 68–69

      • Germany’s infrastructure, 59, 69

      • Internet access, 69, 69f, 71

      • obstacles to investment in Germany and Europe, 57, 69–72

      • private sector productivity, 65, 65f, 66b, 67

      • productivity lags related to investment lags in, 49, 55, 57, 58b, 59, 60–62, 63–64, 66, 70, 241

      • productivity patterns, 56

      • public procurement, 10, 71, 241

      • as source of productivity growth, 56, 56b, 70b, 72–73, 241

      • strategies for productivity improvement, 73

    • Innovation and technological advancement

      • determinants of productivity, 58b

      • future challenges and opportunities, 10

      • in Germany’s slowdown period (1960s–2000), 7

      • patent applications, international comparison of, 59f

      • See also Information and communications technology

    • Insolvency law, 71

    • Interest rates

      • as mechanism of spillover transmission, 103

      • recent patterns, 18, 19f

      • risk aversion and, 18

      • synchronized fiscal consolidation effects on recovery, 149–150, 186

    • International Monetary Fund Article IV consultations with Germany, 3

    • Ireland, 11

      • fiscal consolidation spillover effects, 150, 160, 162, 167–170, 174, 176, 180, 184

      • generation of spillover effects, 115, 122, 127, 160, 247

      • sensitivity to external shocks, 113–114, 126, 165, 166

    • Italy, 5, 12, 24

      • generation of spillover effects, 98, 113–114, 121, 122, 123, 124, 127, 130, 144–145f, 162, 170, 247

      • sensitivity to external shocks, 113, 116–118, 126

    J

    • Japan, 2, 3

      • current account surpluses of 2000s, 16

      • domestic investment patterns, 16

      • European trade, 111, 112

      • generation of spillovers, 97, 98–99, 101, 102, 111, 112, 113, 115, 121, 122, 124, 127, 129, 130, 135–137f, 162, 184

      • as global competitor, 28

      • Great Recession effects, 19

      • interest rate historical patterns, 19f

      • manufacturing sector, 10, 11f

      • output volatility, 17, 18f

      • population aging, 28, 28f, 29f

      • stock market volatility, 18f

    K

    • Knowledge economy

      • Germany’s current status, 55

      • measures of, 60

      • sources of, 61–62

      • U.S. growth, 66b

      • See also Information and communications technology

    • Korea

      • fiscal consolidation spillover effects, 184

      • as global competitor, 28

      • transmission of spillover effects, 162, 176

    • Kurzarbeit, 23–24, 88, 93

    L

    • Labor market, Germany’s

      • Beveridge curve, 91, 92f

      • current account balance dynamics and, 203–204, 215–216, 253–254

      • current supply, 90–91

      • demographic challenges, 2, 28–30

      • educational preparation, 242

      • future challenges for Germany, 31, 49, 92–93, 239–241, 255–256

      • Hartz reforms of 2000s, 11–13, 77, 80, 85–88, 92, 93b, 96, 242, 243–244, 245, 255

      • human capital factors in productivity, 58b, 63n

      • human capital in service sector, 70b

      • implications of population aging trends, 30, 30f

      • institutional and policy responses to Great Recession, 23–24, 35, 88, 242–243

      • post-World War II period, 4–5

      • protective factors mediating financial crisis, 23–24, 35, 77, 90–92, 93b, 242–243, 245–247

      • in reemergence period (2004–08), 9f, 10–13

      • rigidity, 203–204

      • significance of experiences in 1990s and 2000s, 77–78

      • in slowdown period (1960s–2000s), 7, 8–9, 78–80

      • strategies for reducing current account imbalances, 201, 220

      • unit labor cost evolution (1990–2010), 9f

      • See also Employment patterns; Productivity, Germany’s; Wages and income

    M

    • Manufacturing sector, Germany’s

      • effects of Great Recession, 245

      • employment patterns preceding financial crisis, 242–243

      • future challenges of global competition, 1, 2, 10, 27–28

      • growth in reemergence period (2004–08), 10

      • growth trends, 66b

      • international comparison of importance of, 11f

      • investment behavior, 218–220

      • post-World War II (to 1960s) recovery, 1, 4–5, 10

      • productivity patterns, 55, 56, 59, 66–67

      • projected output gaps, 44, 45f

      • responses to onset of financial crisis, 242–243

      • as source of economic resilience, 1

      • as source of Germany’s economic resilience, 28, 30–31

    • Marshall Plan, 4

    • Mexico, 102

    • Minimum wage levels

      • current account imbalances and, 199, 201, 204, 210, 211, 212–214, 215, 221

      • data sources, 224

    • Monetary policy

      • in current account balance dynamics, 203

      • transmission of spillover effects, 251–252

      • See also Exchange rates

    N

    • Netherlands

      • fiscal consolidation spillover effects, 150, 170, 176, 180, 182

      • trade patterns, 110

      • transmission of spillover effects to, 121, 122, 124, 127, 129, 162, 186, 247

    O

    • Oil shocks of 1970s, 1, 7, 31

    • Okun’s law, 81–83, 83b

    • Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development countries

      • current account balance dynamics, 206, 212, 214, 253

      • fiscal policy spillover effects in, 153

      • ICT infrastructure, 59, 68–69

    P

    • Population aging

      • current account balance dynamics and, 202, 206

      • data sources, 223

      • future challenges, 2, 28–30, 242

      • implications for labor market, 2, 30, 30f

      • international comparison of trends, 28f, 29f

      • savings and consumption behavior and, 29–30

    • Portugal

      • fiscal consolidation spillover effects, 184

      • sensitivity to external shocks, 113–114, 124, 166, 172

      • transmission of spillover effects, 122, 127, 128, 160, 247

    • Potential GDP

      • definition, 38–39

      • future concerns, 38, 47, 50

      • German unification effects, 39

      • labor market outcomes of Great Recession, 43–44

      • modeling methodology and data sources, 41–42, 41t, 52–53, 239

      • output gap modeling, 41, 42, 42f, 44, 44f

      • output measurement, 39, 41

      • per capita, 50f

      • projected outcomes in growth accounting model, 47–49, 239–241

      • projected outcomes of Great Recession, 35, 38, 39–40, 43–46

      • transmission of growth shocks to, 37, 41–42

    • Productivity, Germany’s

      • cyclical factors in recent growth, 62

      • data sources, 57

      • determinants of, 58–59, 60–62

      • future challenges and opportunities, 10

      • growth in reemergence period (2004–08), 10

      • ICT investment and growth in, 10, 49, 55, 56, 56b, 57, 58b, 59, 60–62, 63–64, 66, 70, 70b, 72–73

      • international comparison, 55, 56–57, 57n, 59f

      • intersectoral differences, 10, 55, 56–57, 59, 64–72, 66t

      • measurement challenges, 57n

      • patterns and trends, 55, 67f

      • policy recommendations to improve, 73

      • post-World War II recovery, 55, 60

      • private versus public services economy, 62–64

      • projections, 241

      • significance of, in future growth, 50

      • U.S. productivity versus, 58–64, 60f, 60t, 61t, 64t, 65–68, 65f, 66b, 66t, 68t, 241

      • See also Total factor productivity

    • Public procurement

      • cautions in, 241

      • in current account balance dynamics, 203

      • of ICT services, 71, 241

    R

    • Regulatory environment

      • current account imbalances and, 200, 201, 203, 204, 210f

      • data sources, 224

      • insolvency law, 71

      • technology investment in Europe and, 57, 71–72

      • See also Credit market regulation

    • Risk aversion, 17–18

    • Russia

      • fiscal consolidation spillover effects, 184

      • transmission of spillover effects, 162

    S

    • Service sector, Germany’s

      • future challenges and opportunities, 2–3, 10

      • government procurement for public good, 10

      • growth of, 10, 66b

      • human capital supply, 70b

      • productivity patterns, 55, 56–57, 59, 65f, 67–68, 68t

      • projected output gaps, 45f

      • U.S. service economy and, 3

    • SoFFin, 21, 21n

    • Spain, 97, 99

      • domestic and foreign growth spillovers, 118–121

      • fiscal consolidation spillover effects, 184

      • generation and transmission of shocks, 97, 99, 113, 115, 118n, 121, 124, 127, 128, 129, 130, 146–147f, 162, 170

      • German bank claims on banks in, 250–251, 251f

      • sensitivity to external shocks, 113, 116–118, 172

    • Spillover effects in recovery

      • adjusting for GDP size, 248

      • cross-border linkages, 109–112

      • current understanding of spillover dynamics, 100–105

      • domestic and foreign contributions, 118–123

      • domestic demand and, 99, 249–250

      • evidence for, 97–98, 99f

      • findings from vector autoregression modeling, 98–99, 104–105, 130–131, 248–249

      • German fiscal policy as regional stimulus, 25–26

      • inward growth spillovers, to Germany, 115–118, 247

      • mechanisms of transmission, 25, 101, 103, 107–109, 123, 130, 250–252

      • modeling methodology, 97, 98, 100, 104, 105–109, 123, 123n, 126, 129n, 248, 251–252

      • nonstandard channels, 113

      • outward growth spillovers, from Germany, 112–115, 247

      • possible sources of growth, 97, 130

      • research needs, 99–100, 131, 248–249

      • role of Germany in, 25, 99, 130–131

      • size of, 101–102, 126–129, 133t

      • synchronized fiscal consolidation and, 149–150

      • third-country effects, 123–126, 124f, 125f, 247

      • through Target 2 system, 26

      • time-variation, 248

      • trade channels in, 249–251

      • transmission of one-percent growth shocks, 102, 134–147f

    • Stimulus spending in response to Great Recession, 20–21, 22f, 152

    • Stock markets

      • initial public offerings in Germany, 71

      • mechanism of spillover transmission, 103

      • volatility, 18, 18f

    • Structural vector autoregression modeling, 97, 98

    • Sweden

      • fiscal consolidation spillover effects, 184

      • transmission of spillover effects, 122, 127, 129, 172

      • Switzerland

      • fiscal consolidation spillover effects, 182, 184

      • transmission of spillover effects to, 122, 124, 126, 127, 172, 174

    T

    • Target 2 system, 25

      • capital flow patterns, 26, 26f, 27f

      • in Great Recession, 26, 26f, 27f

    • Tax systems

      • current account imbalances and, 199, 200, 201, 212, 214, 220, 221, 254

      • current German, 220

      • data sources, 224

      • obstacles to ICT growth, 69

      • spillover effects of fiscal policy, 152, 153–154

    • Total factor productivity

      • European performance, 58–59, 58b

      • future challenges and opportunities, 72

      • human factors in, 58b, 63n

      • international comparison, 49f, 241

      • intersectoral difference, 57

      • patterns in Germany, 57, 241

      • policy recommendations to improve, 73

      • projected potential growth in Germany, 35, 47–48, 48f, 49–50

      • significance of, in productivity growth, 58, 61–62, 67–68

      • sources of, 241

    • Trade

      • current account balance dynamics and, 206

      • export patterns, 110t

      • generation of spillovers from, 25, 103, 109–112, 123–126, 128f, 129, 129f, 130

      • Great Recession effects, 36

      • growth correlations, 127–129, 128t, 129f

      • spillover effects of fiscal consolidation, 182–186, 184t, 185t

      • spillover effects of spending decline in Germany, 159–166, 164t, 165f, 166f

      • transmission of spillover effects, 249–251

      • unification effects, 7, 8f

      • See also Exports, Germany’s; Imports, Germany’s

    U

    • Unemployment benefits

      • current account balances and, 201, 203, 204, 211, 212, 216

      • current German, 220

      • in Germany’s slowdown period (1970s), 7

      • Hartz reforms, 12, 85

    • Unification of West and East Germany, 1, 2, 7, 31, 39, 79, 255

    • United Kingdom

      • European trade, 111

      • generation of spillover effects, 113, 115, 116, 121, 122, 123, 127, 128, 138–139f, 162, 170, 172

      • Great Recession impact in, 19

      • insolvency laws, 71

    • United States, 6

      • economic challenges and opportunities, 3

      • European trade, 111

      • future of ICT, 72

      • generation of spillovers from, 97, 98–99, 101, 102, 103, 110, 111, 112, 114–115, 116, 121, 122, 124, 127, 128, 130, 134f, 153–154, 162, 170, 174, 247

      • as global competitor, 28

      • Great Recession impact in, 19, 80

      • growth projections, 38, 45–46, 46f, 47

      • growth rates, 76t

      • interest rate historical patterns, 19f

      • labor market outcomes of Great Recession, 44

      • labor market structural characteristics, 80

      • manufacturing sector, 11f

      • output volatility, 17, 18f

      • population aging, 28f, 29f

      • potential GDP patterns, 39–40, 46, 47f

      • private versus public services economy productivity, 62–64

      • productivity growth patterns, 49, 55, 56–57, 56b, 58–64, 60f, 60t, 61t, 64t, 241

      • sectoral differences in productivity, 66t

      • sensitivity to external shocks, 121, 153

      • services sector growth, 66b

      • services sector productivity, 65f

      • sources of productivity growth, 58–59

      • stock market volatility, 18f

    V

    • Vector autoregression modeling, 97, 98, 101, 104, 248

    W

    • Wages and income

      • determinants of current account balance, 202, 206

      • future challenges for Germany, 31

      • post-World War II recovery, 5

      • in recent years, 10–11

      • in reemergence period (2004–08), 10–13, 11f, 12f

      • in slowdown period (2004–08), 7, 8, 79

      • See also Minimum wage levels

    • Work-sharing and work-time adjustment schemes, 12, 24, 83–84, 84f, 92, 242–243, 246–247

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