Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries
Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Rabah Arezki, Catherine Pattillo, Marc Quintyn, and Min Zhu
Published Date:
October 2012
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    Index

    Note: Page numbers followed by f indicate figures, page numbers followed by t indicate tables, and page numbers followed by b indicate boxes.

    A

    Absolute pro-poor growth, 149, 150b

    Access. See Services, access to

    Accountability

    • commodity price volatility and, 354

    • of government budget, 113–14, 113f

    • new technology for, 363

    • proposals for reform of fiscal rule for, 132

    • of sovereign wealth fund, 115f

    Ad-hoc social support scheme, 63

    Advisory Committee for Fiscal Responsibility Funds of the MoF, 117–18

    Advisory Committee for the Reference Copper Price of the MoF (ACRCP), 117–18, 123

    Advisory Committee for Trend GDP of the MoF (ACTG), 117–18, 122

    Africa. See also Sub-Saharan Africa country

    • capital good pricing in, 92–93

    • diversification of weather risks in, 325

    • economic activity, diversifying, 219–20

    • mineral exports from, 36

    • as oil/gas exporter, 37–38

    • resource horizon to depletion in, 89

    • as resource-rich country, 87

    Africa RiskView software, 325

    African Development Bank, 102

    African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), 220

    Afrobarometer, 249

    Aggregate consumption, 252

    Aggregate demand

    • factors affecting, 80

    • reduction of, 80

    Agricultural employment, 260

    • working age population in, 261f

    Agricultural input subsidy, 63

    Agricultural Price Risk Management Product, 325

    Agricultural productivity, farm policies for, 322

    Agricultural raw material index, 56f

    Agriculture. See also Natural resource

    • low total factor productivity growth in, 292

    Agriculture investment/development, 327

    Agriculture productivity growth, 291–93

    Agriculture risk management

    • joint donor program for, 325–27

    • public-private partnership for, 327–28

    Alaska Permanent Fund, 24–25

    Anarchy, unsustainability and, 15–17

    Anderson-Neary balance-of-trade function, 335

    Anticorruption commissions, 101–2

    AR(1) productivity shock, in flexible and sticky price sectors, 78

    Arab resource-rich country, wealth of, 228

    Arab Spring, 234

    ASEAN Emergency Rice Reserve (AERR), 290–91

    ASEAN. See South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)

    ASEAN+3 Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR), 290–91

    Asia. See also Developing Asia

    • agriculture productivity in, 291–93

    Asian Development Bank (ADB), food prices and poverty, 277

    Asian term option, 305–6, 305f

    • cost comparison of, 304t

    • volatility of, 304

    Auditing, of government budgets, 110, 134

    Autocratic institution, 14–15

    • commodity endowment and, 25

    Azerbaijan

    • GDP growth by sector, 169, 170, 170f

    • growth, understanding sources of, 170–72

    • inclusive growth and labor market, 172–78

    • labor productivity and wage gains, 173, 173f, 174, 175, 176, 176f

      • manufacturing, 175f

      • mining, 174f

    • natural resource boom and, 161–62

    B

    Bachelet, President, 23

    Balance-of-trade function, 337

    Banco de México

    • FEIP year-end balances in, 300f

    • oil hedging program participation, 300

    Bangladesh, macroeconomic, poverty, consumption aggregates in, 255t

    Barter contract, 41–42

    “Beggar-thy-neighbor” policy, 279

    Bird-in-the-hand rule, 90

    Blair, Tony, 47

    Botswana’s Pula Fund, management of, 22

    Brent crude oil, 304

    Brent-Maya spread/monthly correlation, 298b

    Bretton Woods system, 45

    • breakdown of, 287

    • food price volatility and, 319

    Budget Office of MoF (DIPRES), 120

    Budgetary management, 110

    • elements of, 138

    • as opaque, adverse effects of, 137

    Budget-planning horizon, 110–11, 137

    Bundling, 42

    Bureaucratic overstretch, 38

    C

    Cambodia

    • employment in, 260t

    • macroeconomic, poverty, consumption aggregates in, 255t

    Cameroon. See also Sub-Saharan Africa country

    • employed, definition of, 273

    • employment in, 260t

    • Engel curves for food in, 266t

    • growth incidence curves in, 254f

    • growth spell ending in, 199f, 200

    • household consumption determinants for, 257t

    • living standards survey characteristics for, 269t, 271t

    • macroeconomic, poverty, consumption aggregates in, 253t

    • working age population versus employment ratio for, 259f

    Capital good pricing, 92–93

    Capital spending, 93–94

    Cardin-Lugar Amendment, 103

    Cash transfer program, 215–16

    Central bank

    • for custodial role of natural assets, 99

    • inflation targeting and, 71–72

    • interest rate smoothing and, 78

    • of Mexico

      • put option trading, 309

    • oil-hedging program and, 308–9

    • oil-hedging program execution and, 300, 308–9

      • challenges to, 309

    • roles of, 101–2

    • welfare gain and, 79–80

    Central government

    • accounts, growth and copper prices, 106f

    • expenditure and revenue ratio to GDP, 126f

    • net assets ratio to GDP, 128f

    • revenue and expenditure growth rate, 126f

    Centre for Regional Information and Studies, 364

    Ceteris paribus, 122

    Child mortality, growth spells and, 195

    Chile

    • advisory committees of MoF, 116

    • copper production/exportation by, 105

    • external control/auditing of government, 114

    • fiscal committees in, 117

    • fiscal policy for commodity exporting countries, 105–140

    • government revenue volatility and, 106

    • government transparency and accountability, 114

    • law on fiscal responsibility, 108–10

    • one-year budgeting framework of, 111

    • sovereign wealth funds in, 112

    • vector autoregression for economy, 131

    Chile-style fiscal rule, 21, 22–23

    • CAB and, 119

    • objectives of, 118–19

    • shortcomings and proposals for reform of, 133–36

    • simulation studies for, 130

    Civil society organization

    • EITI and, 355

    • transparency, role in, 350

    Civil war

    • economic growth and, 17

    • mineral wealth and, 38

    Claim-jumping, 17

    Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency, 350

    CODELCO, 119

    Collateral management, for oil-hedging program, 309

    Colombia, growth spell ending in, 199, 199f

    Commission on Growth and Development, systematic inequality of opportunity and, 148

    Commitment technology

    • building, 98–99

    • features of, 99

    Commodity boom, 20

    • bust versus, 7

    • Dutch disease and, 25

    • fiscal policy/macroeconomic performance and, 136–37

    Commodity endowment, effects of, 25

    Commodity export, 2

    • fiscal policy for, 105–40

      • countries, lesson for, 136–40

    • industrialization and, 20

    • in sub-Saharan African countries, 206–7

    Commodity fund, 21

    Commodity price contingent aid contract, 219

    Commodity price index (CPI)

    • fluctuations of, 56f

    • food share in, 255t

    • inflation and, 58f

    • synchronized movements in, 279f

    Commodity price index (CPI) basket, composition of, 57f

    Commodity price shock, 55

    • effects of another, 62f

    • household budget and, 61

    • increasing resilience to, 65–66

    • inflation and, 64, 64f

    • policy responses to, 61, 63–65

    • risks of, 59–61

    • solutions to, 63

    Commodity price subsidy, 63

    Commodity price volatility, 2, 319

    • fiscal/monetary policy and, 61

    • impact and policy changes, 55–66

    • indices for recent years, 56f

    • inflation and, 60f

    • instruments to cope with

      • cash transfer program, 215–16

      • fiscal policy management, 218–19

    • international development community/donors and, 219–20

    • management of, 95–97

    • monetary policy and, 63

    • policies to deal with, 21–21

    • poverty and, 206

    • Prebisch-Singer hypothesis on, 25

    • reasons for, 12–13

    • savings/investment policies for, 96–97

    • in sub-Saharan Africa countries, 205

    • transparency/accountability and, 354

    Commodity revenue

    • distribution of, 24–25

    • management of, 24

    Common Market for East and Southern Africa (COMESA), 325

    Common pool resource, 17

    Commonwealth of Independent States, mineral exports from, 36

    Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), 324–25

    Concessionary countercyclical loan, 219

    Conditional cash transfer program, 63

    Constitutional law, 99

    Consumer durable

    • NIPA versus survey data measures for demand of, 252

    • respondents owning, 251f

    • types of, 249

    Consumer price index (CPI)

    • cost of living measures, 264

    • exports versus imports and, 24

    • product pricing versus, 21

    Consumer price index (CPI) inflation, food price increases and, 285, 285f

    Consumption, NIPA versus survey data measures for, 248b

    Consumption demand, 80

    Consumption growth, factors affecting, 246–47

    Consumption inequality, terms of trade and, 213, 14f, 215

    Consumption smoothing, 217

    Contract, indexation to world prices, 21–22

    Contract transparency, 360–61

    Contractionary fiscal policy, 122

    Convergence

    • investments and, 92–93

    • low-income countries and, 90–91

    Copper

    • Chile exporting of, 105

    • indexation of debt and, 22

    • revenue from, 106f

    Copper price elasticity, 120

    Copper price, projected versus actual, 124, 129f

    Copper price shock, 106

    • impulse response function for, 131, 131f, 132, 132f, 133f, 142f, 143f, 144f

    Copper Revenue Compensation Fund, 109

    Core inflation, 72–73

    • flexible headline IT versus, 81–82

    • sticky price sector and, 77–78

    • strict versus fexible, 77

    Core price index, 73

    Corruption, 39–40

    • uncovering in India, 50

    • weak transparency and oversight, 345

    Countercyclical borrowing, 47–48

    Countercyclical fiscal policy, 22–23

    Credit market imperfection, 193

    Credit-constrained consumer

    • consumption versus aggregate demand of, 80–81

    • interest rates and, 81

    Cyclically adjusted balance (CAB), 109

    • definition of, 106

    • expenditure and revenue ratio to GDP, 125, 126

    • fiscal rule adoption based on, 138

    • fiscal rules and, 112, 119–20

    • government requirements under, 111

    • proposals for reform of fiscal rule for, 136

    • ratio of to GDP, 125, 125f

    • reduction of, 123, 124

    • target value for, fiscal policy variable for, 123–24

    Cyclically adjusted revenue, proposals for reform of fiscal rule for, 135

    D

    Debt, denomination of, 21, 22

    Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, 44

    Demand

    • labor productivity and wage gains, 180

    • productivity shock and nontraded goods, 181–84 traded goods, 184–85

    Democracy

    • in MENA region, 238f

    • privatization and, 45–46

    • taxation and, 14

    Democratization, oil hindering, 226

    Developing Asia

    • food price increase in, 277–93

      • poverty rate and, 282, 282f

    • global food trade, restoring confidence in, 287–88

    • inflation and growth effects in, 286f

    • public spending, rechanneling, 288–89

    • trade liberalization and, 287–88

    Developing country

    • agricultural/food security policies in, 323–25

    • agriculture risk management in, 326

    • fiscal policy in, 19

    • foreign direct investments and, 37f

    • global price increase effect on, 285, 286

    • international trade and, 10

    • mineral wealth in, 36–38

    • as price-takers, 9

    • real per capita income in, 191f

    • rice/wheat Ti’s for, 344t

      • percentage changes, 345f

    Direct distribution fund, 43

    Diversification

    • challenges to

      • in MENA region, 234

      • in resource-rich countries, 232–33

    • industrial policies for, 238, 239

    • sustainable growth and, 161

    • sustainable growth, inclusive growth and, 164

    • of weather risks in Africa, 325

    Dodd-Frank Act, Section 1504, 359–61

    Dodd-Frank law, 363

    Doha Round, 287

    Doing Business, 92, 93

    Domestic credit market, for low-income countries, 57

    Domestic insulation policy, 287

    Domestic retail price increase, 283f

    Downbreak. See Growth downbreak

    Dutch disease, 17–19, 25

    • approach to countering, 94

    • in MENA region, 233

    • resource curse and, 232–33

    E

    East Asian Emergency Rice Reserve (EAERR), 290

    East Asia/Pacific, savings rate in, 229f

    Economic and social stabilization fund (ESSF), 109

    Economic challenge, of low-income countries, 1

    Economic Community for West African States (ECOWAS), 325

    Economic diversifcation. See Diversifcation

    Economic growth

    • civil war and, 17

    • inclusive growth and, 150

    • of low-income countries, 1

    • Macroeconomic volatility versus, 230

    • in MENA region, 227

    • quality of institutions and, 14

    • of resource-rich countries, 2

    • volatility and, 39

    Economic recovery, low-income countries and, 58

    Ecuador, growth spell ending in, 199f, 200

    Education, growth spells and, 195

    Emerging country/group, 227

    • average schooling years in, 237f

    • bank deposits for, 232f

    • democracy, tendency of, 240, 240f, 241

    • GDP per capita growth and volatility, 230, 230f

    • life expectancy/mortality rate in, 237f

    • mean domestic credit to private sector for, 232f

    • natural capital of, 228f

    • output fluctuations in, 235f

    • production structure in, 233f

    Employment

    • in sub-Saharan Africa countries, 259, 260t

    • in urban areas, 260

    • working age population ratio to, 261, 261f

    Employment gain

    • during boom period, 177, 177f

    • labor productivity versus, 177f, 178

      • model for, 179–84

    • in sub-Saharan Africa countries, 260

    Engel curve, 246

    • for food

      • in Cameroon, Ghana, Uganda, Zambia, 266t

      • in Ghana, 262, 264f, 265t

    • formula for, 262

    Engel’s Law, 9

    • income changes, measuring, 262

    Environmental scarcity, fear of, 11

    Ethnic fractionalization, 198

    Euler equation, 153–54

    Europe, foreign direct investments and, 36, 37f

    Everything But Arms (EBA), 220

    Exchange rate overvaluation, 196, 197

    Exchange rate policy, 21, 23

    • increase in, effects of, 94

    • noncommodity exporter and, 64–65

    Expansionary fiscal policy, 123

    Expenditure transparency, 50

    Export

    • hedging proceeds of, 21, 22

    • impact of

      • barrier increases/decreases, 333, 334, 334f

      • restrictions, 332, 333f

    • productivity shock and demand, 181–84

    Export tariff increase, 332

    Extensive growth, 147–48

    External control, of government budgets, 114

    External shock, growth spells and, 196

    Extraction. See also Resource extraction

    • low-income countries and, 41

    • of minerals, 40, 85

    Extraction rate, 89–90

    Extractive contract, 360–61

    Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), 49–50, 102–3

    • accountability at local level, 361

    • commitment to, 350

    • economic/development incomes and, 354–59

    • implementation of, 351

    • implementation of, effects of, 356

    • political constraints/capture of, 357

    • role of, 354–55

    • transparency and, 241

      • new technology for, 363

    Extractive industry, 15

    Extractive Industry Review, 350

    F

    Factor income, resource extraction and, 88

    Farm policy, 322

    • in developing countries, 323–25

    FARM-D, 325

    Fertilizer subsidy, 284

    • Indonesia and, 284t

    Financial Advisory Committee on Sovereign Funds of the MoF, 109, 112, 117, 118

    Financial development, growth spells and, 195

    Financial globalization, growth spells and, 197

    Financial service, access to, 74, 75f

    First-best policy, 61

    Fiscal committee, 114

    • establishment of, 108

    • role of, 116

    • tasks of, 116

    Fiscal council (FC), 114

    • establishment of, 108, 139–40

    • features of, 117

    • tasks of, 116, 135–36

    Fiscal decentralization, 44

    Fiscal policy, 19

    • for Chile, 22–23, 105–40

    • lessons for commodity exporting countries, 136–40

    • strengthening institutional framework of, 137–38

    • transparency/accountability of budgetary information, 138

    Fiscal policy management, 218–19

    Fiscal procyclicality, fiscal policy reform and, 137

    Fiscal responsibility law, 108–10, 137

    Fiscal revenue, resource-rich countries and, 56–57

    Fiscal rule. See also Chile-style fiscal rule

    • adoption of, 138–39

    • CAB and, 119–20

    • elasticities in, 120

    • implementation, change and budget performance, 120–27

    • macroeconomic impact of, 127

    • number of countries with, 111

    • objectives of, 111–12

    • shortcomings and proposals for reform of, 133–36

    Flexible core IT, 77

    • welfare gain and, 79, 80f

    Flexible headline IT, 78

    • core IT versus, 81–82

    • welfare gain and, 80, 80t

    Flexible price, sticky price versus, 75–78

    Floating exchange rate, 24

    Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 342

    Food crisis/riot, 321

    Food emergency

    • definition of, 289

    Food expenditure

    • Engel curve for

      • in Cameroon, Ghana, Uganda, Zambia, 264t

      • in Ghana, 262, 264f, 265t

    • household budget and, 73–74, 74f, 74t

    • in total household expenditures, 281, 281f

    Food export/import, 2

    • commodity price volatility and, 55–56

    Food inflation, 73

    Food price increase

    • contributing factors to, 331

    • CPI inflation and, 284, 285, 285f

    • crisis/riots from, 319

    • in developing Asia, 277–93

    • effects of, 280

      • fiscal costs, 283–84

      • local populations, 283

      • poor vulnerability, 281, 282, 283

    • factors affecting, 279–80

    • global, countries affected by, 286

    • household budget, effects of, 62f

    • inflation and, 60f

    • rice and wheat, 283f

    • trade barriers and, 287, 293

    • trade distortion and, 331–45

    Food price index, 56f

    • increase in, effects of, 277, 278

    • for rice/wheat, 344f

    • structural shifts in, 278f

    • supply depletion and, 278

    • volatility and level of, 316, 316f

    Food price shock, 60

    • agricultural input subsidy and, 63

    • impact of, 319

    Food price volatility. See also Price volatility

    • adjustments in, 316

    • approaches to, 316–17

    • as international policy challenge, 315–28

    • over long term, 317f

    • trade bans and, 287

    Food reserve, management of, 289–90

    Food sector (flexible price), 76–78

    Food security, 320

    • in developing countries, 326

    • international policy challenge with, 328–29

    • private actors and, 327

    Food subsidy, 282

    • Indonesia and, 282t

    Food voucher program with proxy-means testing, 63

    Foreign direct investment, 37f

    • North American/Europe attracting, 36

    Foreign loan, 48

    Formal sector employment, 259

    Fuel price increase

    • household budget, effects of, 63f

    • inflation and, 60f

    Fuel price index, 56f

    Fuel price shock, 60

    Futures market, drawbacks of, 22

    G

    G20 declaration

    • agriculture risk management and, 326

    • food price volatility and, 315

    • objectives of, 322

    • role of, 323

    Gas exporter

    • countries becoming, 37–38

    • Dodd-Frank Act, Section 1504 and, 359–60

    Gas price index, 56f

    Generally Accepted Principles and Practices for SWFs, 358–59

    Ghana. See also Sub-Saharan Africa country

    • employed, definition of, 272–73

    • employment in, 260t

    • food expenditures for, 263f

      • Engel curve, 262, 264f, 265t, 266t

    • growth incidence curves in, 254f

    • household consumption determinants for, 257t

    • living standards survey characteristics for, 270t, 272t

    • macroeconomic, poverty, consumption aggregates in, 255t

    • Public Interest and Accountability Committee in, 351, 362b

    • working age population versus employment ratio for, 261f

    Gini coefficient, 193

    Global commodity price shock, 56

    • inflation and, 64f

    Global energy trade, low-income countries and, 36

    Global financial crisis, low-income countries and, 1

    Global food trade, restoring confidence in, 287–88

    Global market equilibrium, 338–39

    Global price increase

    • countries afected by, 286

    • economic impact of, 280

      • on Asian economies, 285, 286

      • fiscal costs, 283–84

      • poor vulnerability, 281, 82

    Global Witness, 49

    Government assets/liabilities, rules for management of, 112–13

    Government budget

    • external control/auditing of, 114, 138

    • transparency/accountability of, 113–14, 113f, 138

    • variables, GDP growth, and copper prices, correlations between, 129f

    Government rent capture, 88

    Government revenue, 40–50

    • changing sources of, 44–46

    • effects of, 38–40

    • reducing size of, 40–44

    • reform measures and, 40–50

    • undocumented, 351

    Government spending

    • CAB and, 106–7

    • in Chile, 119

    • stabilization of, 138

    Government transparency, 48–50

    Government Watch, 50

    Grain

    • pricing of

      • spikes in, 333

      • structural shifts in, 278f

    • reserve management of, 289–90

    • supply depletion of, 278

    Gross domestic product (GDP)

    • central government expenditure and revenue ratio to, 126f

    • Chile and, 108

    • government assets and debts, 106

    • net government assets ratio to, 128f

    • per capita real GDP in Saudi Arabia, 165, 165f

    • projected growth rate of, 123f

    • revenue ratio to, 127f

    • trend growth rate of, 122f

    • in whole economy and oil sector, 163–64, 163f

    Gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, growth, understanding sources of, 170–72

    Gross domestic product (GDP) growth, 106f

    • GDP growth volatility versus, 209, 210, 210f

    • poverty reduction and, 209–10

    Gross domestic product (GDP) growth volatility

    • GDP growth versus, 209, 210, 210f

    • poverty reduction and, 209–10

    • terms of trade volatility efect on, 212f

    Growth. See also specific types of

    • constraint/factors affecting, 153–54

    • developing Asia, efect on, 286f

    • hazards to, 194–96

    • hills, valleys and plateaus of, 191f

    • hills of, 189f

    • income distribution and, 188, 198

    • macroeconomic versus microeconomic dimensions of, 148

    • methods to jumpstart, 149

    • pace and pattern of, 148, 150b

    • percentage, by sector, 172f

    • poverty reduction and, 151

    • in sub-Saharan Africa countries, 253, 256

    • super pro-poor policy efect on, 152

    • terms of trade/volatility efect on, 211–13

    • understanding sources of, 170–72

    Growth break, by region and decade, 192t

    Growth downbreak, 190

    • by region and decade, 192t

    Growth incidence curve (GIC), findings for, 253

    Growth laggard, 190, 192

    Growth miracle, 192

    Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, 148

    Growth spell, 188

    • characteristics of, 193t

    • definition of, 190

    • duration of, 190, 194f

    • variables determining, 195–96, 197, 197f

    • ending of, 199–201, 199f

    Growth sustainability, income distribution and, 192

    Growth upbreak, 190

    • by region and decade, 192t

    Grupo Propuesta Ciudadana (GPC), role of, 364

    Guatemala, growth spell ending in, 199f, 200

    Guide to Resource Revenue Transparency, 350

    Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) group, 227

    • average schooling years in, 237f

    • bank deposits for, 231, 232f

    • democracy, tendency of, 240, 240f, 241

    • GDP per capita growth and volatility, 230, 230f

    • life expectancy/mortality rate in, 237f

    • mean domestic credit to private sector for, 232f

    • output fluctuations in, 235f

    • production structure in, 233f

    H

    Hartwick rule, 228

    Hausmann, Rodrick, and Velasco (HRV) framework

    • growth constraints, identification of, 153, 154–55

    • inclusive growth analytics and, 155

    Headline inflation, 77–78

    High-income country

    • rice/wheat Ti’s for, 342t

      • percentage changes, 343f

    Historical volatility, 316–17

    Hotelling rule, 90

    Household budget

    • commodity price shocks and, 61

    • food expenditure and, 73–74, 74f, 83f

    • food expenditures and, 281, 281f

    • food/fuel price efect on, 63f

    Household consumption

    • determinants of, 256, 257t, 258–59

    • expenditures per capita, 263f

    • growth incidence curves of, 254f

    • income and, 259

    • welfare measures through, 248, 248b, 252

    HRV framework. See Hausmann, Rodrick, and Velasco (HRV) framework

    Hubbert, Marion King, 11

    Hubbert’s Peak, 11

    I

    Import Substitution Industrialization policy, 10

    Import tariff reduction, 63

    • effects of, 334

    Inclusive growth (IG)

    • analysis of, 149–50

    • definition of, 147–48

    • diversifcation and, 164

    • focus of, 150b

    • HRG framework to, 155

    • income growth and, 162

    • labor market and, 172–78

    • in MENA region, 225–41

    • natural resource wealth and, 164

    • in natural resource-intensive economies, 161–85

    • per capita growth and, 246

    • policies for, 150

    • productive employment and, 156–57

    • in sub-Saharan Africa countries, 249

    • in sub-Saharan Africa country, 245–67

    • transparency/accountability and, 359–60

    • wage gains and, 173

    Inclusiveness, 148

    Income

    • growth rate of, 19–20

    • household consumption and, 259

    • labor productivity versus mining, 173, 174

    • oil industry as, 310

    • raw material demand versus, 9

    Income distribution, 149

    • equality in, 193

    • growth and, 188, 198

    • growth sustainability and, 192

    • social heterogeneity and, 198

    Income elasticity, 74, 75f

    Income growth, 149

    • inclusive growth and, 162, 173

    • in MENA region, 227

    • underestimation of, 264

    Income insurance, 216

    • types of, 217

    Indexation

    • copper producer and, 22

    • of oil/mineral contracts, 21–22

    India

    • food/fertilizer subsidies in, 284, 284t

    • uncovering corruption in, 50

    Indonesia

    • Centre for Regional Information and Studies in, 362

    • food/fertilizer subsidies in, 284

    Indonesia and, food/fertilizer subsidies in, 284t

    Industrial revolution, 15

    Industrialization

    • commodity exports and, 20

    • history of, 15

    Inequality

    • asset versus income, 152

    • decline in, 149

    • ethnic/religious fractionalization and, 198

    • factors countering, 188

    • Gini coefficient and, 193

    • growth spells and, 194f, 196

    • importance of, 187

    • of opportunity, 148

    • super pro-poor policy effect on, 152

    • sustainable growth and, 198

    • unsustainable growth and, 187–202

    Inflation

    • commodity price index and, 58f

    • commodity price shock and, 64, 64f

    • developing Asia, effect on, 286f

    • impact of, 56

      • commodity pricing and, 60f

    • regional variations of, 58–59

    Inflation targeting (IT), 21, 23–24

    • low-income country central banks and, 71–72

    Institution, oil wealth versus, 20

    Institutional rule, 99

    Insurance, investment risks and, 95–96

    Intensive growth, 147–48

    Interest rate smoothing, 77–78

    International Budget Partnership, 50

    • Open Budget Survey by, 113

    International development community/donor, role of, 219–20

    International Emergency Food Reserve, 290

    International financial institution (IFI)

    • commitment technologies, role in, 99

    • low-income countries and, 66

    • transparency, role in, 352

    International financial integration, 195

    International Monetary Fund (IMF)

    • accountability/transparency initiatives, 363

    • transparency agenda, 350

    • undocumented government funds and, 349

    International price volatility, national policy response to, 332–34

    International public policy, challenges for, 319–23

    International trade, developing countries and, 10

    Investing-in-investing process

    • components of, 92–93

    • savings/investment policies and, 96

    Investment

    • convergence and, 92–93

    • insuring, 95–96

    • resource depletion and, 98

    Iraq EITI, 357

    Isthmus crude oil, 304

    J

    Job for food program, 63

    K

    Kazakhstan, 94–95

    Keynes-Ramsey rule, 153–54

    L

    Labor force

    • in MENA region growth rate of, 239f

    • in sub-Saharan Africa countries, defining, 274–75

    Labor market

    • inclusive growth and, 172–78

    • in MENA region, 224

    Labor productivity, 151

    • average wage growth based on, 176, 176f

    • average wage versus, 174

      • manufacturing, 175f

      • mining, 173, 174, 174f

    • employment gain versus, 177f, 178

      • model for, 179–84

    • value added per employee, 173, 173f, 174

    Laspeyres-type CPI index, 264

    Law-cum-institution, 99

    Legislation, building commitment technology and, 99

    Liquidity-constrained economy, 154

    Low total factor productivity (TFP) growth, 291

    Low-income, commodity price volatility and, 2

    Low-income country

    • agriculture productivity in, 291–92

    • capital spending in, 93–94

    • commodity price shocks and, 55, 57–66

    • convergence of, 90–91

    • CPI basket composition for, 57f

    • economic status of, 1

    • food expenditure and, 73–74, 74f

    • formal sector employment in, 261

    • global energy trade and, 36

    • growth of, 58f, 157

    • inclusive growth approach and, 150

    • increasing resilience in, 65–66

    • inflation targeting and, 71–72

    • instruments to cope with volatility

      • cash transfer program, 215–16

      • fiscal policy management, 218–19

    • investing in, 37

    • monetary policy in, 81–82

    • petroleum extraction and, 41

    • petroleum wealth in, 35–50

    • recession and recovery, 58

    • resource depletion of, 87–88

    • savings/investment policies for, 88

    • tax and social safety net systems for, 57

    M

    Macroeconomic buffer, 65

    Macroeconomic dimension of growth, 148

    Macroeconomic volatility

    • economic growth versus, 230

    • growth spells and, 196

    Manufactured goods volatility, 317

    Manufacturing

    • crowding out, 7, 13–14

    • labor productivity and wage gains, 174, 175, 175f

    • model for, 180–84

    Maya crude oil, 304

    Maya put option

    • premium dispersion of, 309f

    • pricing of, 307

    • proxy of, 307f

    • strike price of, 306

    Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, The, 247

    Merchandise trade, metals versus fuel, 36, 36f

    Metal price index, 56f

    Metal price shock, 60

    Mexico. See also Oil Income Stabilization Fund (FEIP)

    • hedging strategy of, 21, 22

    • oil industry in, 297

      • crude types, 304

      • export shares, 298f

      • as income source, 314

      • monthly exports of, 303f

      • revenue from, 298f

    Microcredit program, 216

    Microecronomic dimension of growth, 148

    Microfinance, 217

    Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

    • average schooling years in, 237f

    • classification of, 227

    • democracy, tendency of, 240f

    • diversification challenges for, 234

    • Dutch disease in, 233

    • economic growth in, 219

    • GDP per capita growth and volatility, 222, 222f

    • income growth in, 227

    • labor force in

      • expansion, 226

      • growth rate of, 239f

    • life expectancy/mortality rate in, 237f

    • natural resource curse in, 229, 230

      • financial development, 231

    • natural resources, volatility and inclusive growth in, 225–41

    • output fluctuations in, 235f

    • production structure in, 233f

    • savings rate in, 229f

    • stabilization of

      • boom-bust cycle, 234, 235–36

      • human capital/infrastructure investments, 236, 237–38

      • industrial policies, 238, 239

      • institutions and governance, 240, 241

    Middle East, mineral exports from, 36

    Mineral

    • indexation of contracts, 21–22

    • as natural resource curse, 8–9

    • as total merchandise trade share, 36, 36f

    Mineral export, growth and, 8f

    Mineral revenue, distribution of, 21

    Mineral wealth

    • civil wars and, 38

    • effects of, 40

    • importance of, 36–38

    Minerals Management Service, 45

    Mining

    • Dodd-Frank Act, Section 1504 and, 361–62

    • labor productivity and wage gains, 173, 173f, 174, 174f

    Mining revenue, fiscal rule and, 121

    Ministry of Finance (MoF)

    • Advisory Committee for Fiscal

      • Responsibility Funds of, 117–18

    • Advisory Committee for the Reference

      • Copper Price of, 117–18, 123

    • Advisory Committee for Trend GDP of, 117–18, 122

    • advisory committees of, 116

    • Advisory Financial Committee for Fiscal

      • Responsibility Funds of, 109

    • budgetary management, elements of, 138

    • Financial Advisory Committee on Sovereign Funds of, 112

    • management of, 110

    • trend GDP growth and output gap projection by, 122f

    Molybdenum price elasticity, 120

    Monetary policy

    • commodity price volatility and, 63

    • in low-income economies, 81–84

    Money-metric political-economy welfare loss function equation, 335–37

    Motor vehicle, respondents owning, 251f

    Mozambique. See also Sub-Saharan Africa country

    • employed, definition of, 274–76

    • employment in, 260t

    • growth incidence curves in, 254f

    • household consumption determinants for, 257t

    • living standards survey characteristics for, 270t, 272t

    • macroeconomic, poverty, consumption aggregates in, 255t

    • working age population versus employment ratio for, 261f

    Multi-annual budgeting, 110–11

    N

    National income product account (NIPA) data, 247, 248b

    Nationalization, privatization versus, 44–46

    Natural capital

    • in Arab resource-rich countries, 228

    • of emerging countries, 228f

    • shares by region, 229f

    Natural resource

    • access to, 250f

    • benefits versus risks of, 25

    • countries low/high in, 7–8

    • depletion of, 16

    • labor productivity and wage gain, model for, 180–84

    • in MENA region, 225–41

    • property rights of, 16–17

    • as public asset, 354

    • specialization, effects of, 25

    • true endowments versus exports, 20

    Natural resource boom

    • impact of, 182

    • model for, 180–84

    • Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan, 161–62

    Natural resource curse

    • cause and examples of, 7

    • Dutch disease and, 232–33

    • ideas to address, 26

    • in MENA region, 229, 30

      • financial development, 231

    • policies to deal with, 20–25

    • public investment and, 98–99

    • skeptics to, 19–20

    Natural resource exporter, 2

    Natural resource fund management. See also Sovereign wealth fund (SWF)

    • transparency and, 358–59

    Natural resource wealth

    • inclusive growth and, 164

    • income growth rate and, 19–20

    Natural resource-intensive economy, inclusive growth in, 155–79

    Natural Resources Charter, 49

    • transparency and, 357–58

    New Economic Partnership for African Development (NEPAD), 324–25

    New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), 102

    New Vision of Agriculture, 327

    Newly industrialized country (NIC), postwar growth of, 151

    Nigeria

    • barter contracts and, 42

    • growth spell ending in, 199f, 200

    No taxation without representation, 14–15

    Nominal assistance coefficient (NAC), 340–41

    • for upward wheat/rice price periods, 342t

    Nominal rate of assistance (NRA), 344

    • contributions to total agriculture, by region, 346t

    Noncommodity exporter, exchange rate policy and, 64–65

    Nonfood inflation, 73

    Nonfood sector (sticky price), 76–78

    Nongovernment organization (NGO), oil sector transparency and, 49

    Nongovernment salaried employee, defining, 274–75

    Non-Gulf Cooperation Council (non-GCC) group, 227

    • average schooling years in, 237f

    • bank deposits for, 232f

    • democracy, tendency of, 240, 240f, 241

    • GDP per capita growth and volatility, 230, 230f

    • life expectancy/mortality rate in, 237f

    • mean domestic credit to private sector for, 232f

    • output fluctuations in, 235f

    • production structure in, 233f

    Non-resource economy, natural resource boom and, 182–83

    North American, foreign direct investments and, 36, 37f

    North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTRA), 297

    O

    Oil

    • countries producing, 36

    • crude types of, 304

    • democratization and, 226

    • developing countries and, 9

    • Dodd-Frank Act, Section 1504 and, 359–60

    • indexation of contracts, 21–22

    • as natural resource curse, 8–9

    • price scenario and strike price, 303f

    • pricing trends of, 10–12

    Oil boom, in Saudi Arabia, 165–66, 166f

    Oil contract, 360–61

    Oil exporter

    • countries becoming, 37–38

    • Mexico as, 297, 298f

      • crude types, 277

      • income source for, 310

      • revenue from, 298f

    Oil Income Stabilization Fund (FEIP), 298f

    • objective of, 299

    • source and use of funds from, 299t

    • year-end balances of, 300f

    Oil revenue

    • decentralization of, 44

    • distribution of, 21

    Oil sector transparency, 49

    Oil wealth, institution versus, 20

    Oil-denominated loan, 48

    Oil-hedging program

    • accumulated barrels during, 309f

    • Banco de México participation in, 300

    • Central Bank executing, 300, 308–9

      • challenges to, 309–11

    • collateral management for, 309

    • execution of, 301, 308, 309

      • steps before, 301b

    • governance structure of, 299

    • objectives of, 301

    • performance of, 309

    • strategy characteristics for, 302t

      • options, 302, 302f

    Oligarchic institution, 14–15

    • commodity endowment and, 25

    Olmeca crude oil, 304

    One-year budgeting, 110–11

    Open Budget Survey, 113

    Open-access resource, 16

    Opportunity, systematic inequality of, 148

    Option market, 21

    • cost comparison of, 304t

    • hedging proceeds on, 22

    • oil-hedging program and, 302, 302f

    Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

    • CPI basket composition for, 57f

    • food trade and, 56

    • redistribution scheme, 149

    • volatility in economic growth, 230

    Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) country, as high-income, resource scarce, 88

    Output gap projection, 122f

    Output growth

    • percentage, by sector,172f

    • understanding sources of, 170–72

    P

    Panama, growth spell ending in, 199f, 200

    Pension reserve fund, 109

    Per capita growth, inclusive growth and, 246

    Permanent-income approach, 106

    Petroleum contract, 362–63

    Petroleum revenue

    • distribution of, 42–43

    • government and, 38–40

    • stabilization of, 46–48

    Petroleum wealth

    • importance of, 36–38

    • political economy of, 35–50

    Philippines, Government Watch and, 50

    Phosphate, 16

    “Point source” resource, 15

    Point-source natural resource-rich country, 352

    Policy, for commodity price volatility, 20–21

    Political economy, 194

    • growth spells and, 195

    Political instability, 194

    Postwar growth, in newly industrialized countries, 151

    Poverty

    • commodity price volatility and, 206

    • economic growth and, 1

    • food price increases and, 277

      • in developing Asia, 282, 282f

    • food/fuel price effect on, 63f

    • GDP per capita growth and, 207

    • high growth rates and, 151

    • inflation and increase in, 61

    • microfinance and, 217

    • price volatility and, 321

    • redistribution schemes for, 149

    • in resource-rich country, 351

    • statistics on, 58

    Poverty reduction

    • GDP growth/volatility, 209–10

    • in sub-Saharan Africa countries

      • determinants of, 207, 208–09, 208t

      • income growth and, 260

    • sustainable growth and, 187, 188

    Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, 9–10, 25

    Price index, as output- versus consumption-oriented, 24

    Price insulation, 334–38

    • impact of, 338

    Price stickiness, 73

    Price volatility. See also Food price volatility

    • impact of, 319

    • international, 332–34

    • international policy challenge with, 328–29

    • as time persistent, 318

    Price-taker assumption

    • conditions of, 9

    • flexible (food) price sector and, 77

    Private investment, 92–94

    Privatization

    • nationalization versus, 44–46

    • of natural resources, 16

    Procyclical fiscal policy, 22–23

    Procyclical spending, 19

    Product price, consumer price index versus, 21

    Product price targeting (PPT), 24

    Productive employment, 149

    • inclusive growth and, 150b

    • for sustainable and inclusive growth, 156–57

    Productivity shock

    • demand and

      • nontraded goods, 181

      • traded goods, 184–185

    • price increases and, 172, 172f

    Progresa and Bolsa Familia, 215–16

    Property rights, unenforceability of, 16–17

    Pro-poor growth, absolute versus relative, 149

    Public employment program, 217

    Public Interest and Accountability Committee, 361, 362b

    Public investment, 92–94

    • resource curse through, 98–99

    • volatility and, 96

    Public Investment Management Index (PIMI), 92

    Public spending

    • rechanneling in Asia, 288–89

    • smoothing of, 96

    Publish What You Pay, 49

    • government reporting standards, 360

    Put option, 302, 302f

    • cost comparison of, 304t

    • Maya, strike price of, 306

    • trading of, 311–12

    R

    Radio, respondents owning, 251f

    Raw material demand, income versus, 9

    Recession, low-income countries and, 58

    Redistribution scheme, 149

    Regional Information and Studies, Centre for, 362

    Relative pro-poor growth, 149

    Religious fractionalization, 198

    Rent, resource extraction and, 88

    Rent cycling theory, 14

    Resource dependence, 20

    Resource depletion, savings/investment policies for, 96, 98

    Resource extraction. See also Extraction factor income and rents, 88

    Resource wealth See Natural resource wealth

    Resource-rich country

    • average schooling years in, 237f

    • bank deposits for, 232f

    • democracy, tendency of, 240, 240f, 241

    • diversification challenges for, 232–33

    • economic growth of, 2

    • examples of, 25

    • fiscal revenues and, 56–57

    • institutional capacity weakness in, 352

    • life expectancy/mortality rate in, 237f

    • mean domestic credit to private sector for, 232f

    • in MENA region

      • economic growth, 227

    • output fluctuations in, 235f

    • policy agenda, features of, 241

    • poverty in, 351

    • production structure in, 233f

    • revenue transparency and, 49

    • savings/investment policies for, 87–88

    • secrecy/social contract fragility, implications of, 352–353

    Revenue

    • government and, 38–40

    • saving and investing, 90–91

    • volatility of, 95

    Revenue boom, 38

    Revenue decentralization, 44

    Revenue stability, 46–48

    Revenue transparency, expenditure versus, 50

    Revenue Watch Institute, 49

    Rice

    • nominal assistance coefficients and, 342–43

    • price increase for, 281

    • price index for, 344f

    • reserve management of, 289–90

    • Ti’s for, 344t

      • percentage changes, 343f

    Rice price increase, 283f

    Rice self-sufficiency, 287

    Ring-fenced import duty exemption, 63 “Rule of thumb” consumer, 79

    • description of, 77

    S

    SAARC Food Security Reserve, 290

    Salaried employee, defining, 274–75

    Santiago Principles, 358–59

    • sovereign wealth funds and, 361

    Saudi Arabia

    • annual growth/contribution to by sector/time period, 168–69, 168t

    • boom and bust by sector, 166–67, 167t

    • diversification and effects of, 169

    • GDP in economy and oil sector, 163–64, 163f

    • natural resource boom and, 161–62

    • oil boom in, 165–66, 166f

    • per capita real GDP in, 165, 165f

    • as price-taker, 9

    • structural change in [1970-86], 167t

    Savings, resource depletion and, 98

    Savings rate

    • convergence and, 90–91

    • from natural source revenues, 89

    • by region, 227f

    Scale, government revenue and, 38

    School-based feeding scheme, 63

    Secrecy, government revenue and, 39–40

    • reducing, 48–50

    Self-sufficiency initiative, 287–88

    Services, access to

    • measures of, 249

    • natural resources, 250, 250f, 251–52

    Seven Sisters, 45

    Slutsky own-price elasticity of food, 74, 75f

    Social contract, 354–55

    Social heterogeneity, income distribution and, 198

    Social safety net system, for low-income countries, 57

    Solow-Swan-type balanced growth, 148

    Source, government revenue and, 38

    • altering, 40

    • volatility and, 44–46

    South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), 289–90

    Sovereign Development Fund (SDF), 99

    • central bank and, 101–2

    • rules of, 100

    Sovereign Resilience Fund (SRF), 99

    • central bank and, 101–2

    • purpose of, 100

    Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, transparency/accountability of government accounts, 114

    Sovereign wealth fund (SWF), 112

    • establishment of, 24, 139

    • governance over, 363

    • rules for management of, 112–13

    • rules of, 99

    • transparency/accountability of, 114, 115f

      • Santiago Principles, 358–59

    Stability

    • government revenue and, 39

    • in MENA region

      • boom-bust cycle, 234, 235–36

      • human capital/infrastructure investments, 236, 237–38

    Stability and Growth Pact, 107

    • ceilings on government deficit and debt, 111–12

    Stabilization fund, 46

    Stabilization plan, elements of, 46

    Standby Credit Facility, 219

    Sticky price, 73

    • flexible price versus, 75–78

    Strict core IT, 77, 78

    • welfare gain and, 79–80

    Strict headline IT, 77

    • welfare gain and, 79, 79f

    Strike price, of Maya put option, 306

    Structural change, 148

    • growth sustainability and, 154

    Subnational revenue fund, 44

    Sub-Saharan Africa country. See also Africa commodity exports and poverty in, 206–7

    • commodity price volatility in, 205

    • employment in, 259, 260

    • growth incidence curves in, 253, 254f, 256

    • household consumption expenditures per capita, 263f

    • inclusive growth in, 245–67, 249

    • living standards survey characteristics for, 269t

    • macroeconomic, poverty, consumption aggregates in, 255t

    • poverty reduction in

      • determinants of, 207, 208–9, 208t

      • income growth and, 262

    • public employment program in, 217

    • savings rate in, 227f

    • working age population versus

      • employment ratio for, 261f

    Super pro-poor policy, 152

    Supply shock, 78

    • food and energy prices as, 72

    Sustainability Framework, 350

    Sustainable growth

    • difficulties with, 190, 192

    • diversification and, 161, 164

    • factors important to, 154

    • inclusive growth policies for, 150, 158

    • inequality and, 198

    • pace and pattern of growth for, 148

    • poverty reduction and, 187, 188

    • productive employment and, 156–57

    Systematic inequality of opportunity, 148

    T

    Tanzania. See also Sub-Saharan Africa country

    • employed, definition of, 274–75

    • employment in, 260t

    • growth incidence curves in, 254f

    • household consumption determinants for, 257t

    • living standards survey characteristics for, 271t, 273t

    • macroeconomic, poverty, consumption aggregates in, 255t

    • working age population versus employment ratio for, 261f

    Tax systems, for low-income countries, 57

    Taxation

    • freedom from, 14

    • privatization and, 45

    Television, respondents owning, 251f

    Terms of trade, consumption inequality and, 213, 214f, 215

    Terms-of-trade volatility

    • GDP growth volatility and, 212f

    • growth and, 211–13

    Time inconsistency, 21–22

    Total agricultural NRA, contributions by region, 348t

    Trade barrier, 293

    • food price volatility and, 287

    Trade distortion, food price surges and, 333–47

    Trade liberalization

    • Asia and, 287–88

    • growth spells and, 195

    Trade tax in region (Ti’s), for rice/wheat countries, 340

    Tragedy of the commons, 16

    Transparency, 48–50

    • civil society organizations and IFI role in, 350

    • commodity price volatility and, 354

    • EITI and, 241

    • GDP growth and copper pricing, 113

    • lack of, consequences of, 353

    • natural resource fund management and, 358–59

    • Natural Resources Charter guidelines for, 357–58

    • new technology for, 363

    • proposals for reform of fiscal rule for, 136

    • strengthening demand for, 361, 362

    • of SWF, 111f

    Transparent sovereign wealth fund, establishment of, 24

    Treaty of Breda, 15

    U

    Uganda. See also Sub-Saharan Africa country

    • employment in, 260t

    • Engel curves for food in, 262t

    • growth incidence curves in, 254f

    • household consumption determinants for, 257t

    • living standards survey characteristics for, 271t, 273t

    • macroeconomic, poverty, consumption aggregates in, 255t

    • working age population versus employment ratio for, 261f

    Uganda Debt Network, 50

    Unconstrained consumer, consumption versus aggregate demand of, 80–81

    Undernourishment, population affected by, 320, 320f

    Unemployment insurance, 216

    United Kingdom, hills of growth in, 189f

    United States

    • hills of growth in, 189f

    • as petroleum importer, 36

    Unsustainability, anarchy and, 15–17

    Unsustainable growth, inequality and, 187–202

    Upbreak. See Growth upbreak

    Urban employment, 260

    Uruguay Round agreement, 340

    Utilitarian framework, 90–91

    V

    Vector autoregression (VAR), 131

    Vietnam

    • employment in, 260t

    • macroeconomic, poverty, consumption aggregates in, 255t

    Volatility

    • economic growth and, 39

    • in MENA region, 225–41

    W

    Wage. See Income

    Wage stickiness, 73

    War. See also Civil war

    • in oil-producing regions, 38, 39f

    Wealth, in MENA region, 227

    Weather Risk Management Facility, 325

    Welfare

    • evaluation of, 78–79

    • measures of, 247, 248

      • asset holdings and access to services, 248–49

      • consumption versus income, 252

      • household consumption, 252

    • NIPA versus survey data measures for, 248b

    • strict core IT policy and, 79

    Welfare gain, 79

    • from alterative IT rules, 79f

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI), 305b–6b

    Wheat

    • nominal assistance coefficients and, 341–42

    • price increase for, 283, 283f

    • price index for, 344f

    • Ti’s for, 342t

      • percentage changes, 343f

    World Bank, 22

    • Doing Business annual rating of, 93

    • low-income countries and, 66

    • poverty rates and, 58

    • transparency agenda, 350

    World commodity, long-term trends of, 9–12

    World Food Program, 290

    • agriculture risk management and, 325

    World price, indexation of oil/mineral contracts to, 21–22

    World Trade Organization (WTO), 342

    WTI crude oil, 304

    WTI put option, strike prices of, 307t

    WTI-Maya spread/monthly correlation, 305b

    Z

    Zambia. See also Sub-Saharan Africa country

    • employed, definition of, 274–75

    • employment in, 260t

    • Engel curves for food in, 266t

    • growth incidence curves in, 254f

    • household consumption determinants for, 257t

    • living standards survey characteristics for, 271t, 273t

    • working age population versus employment ratio for, 261f

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