Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund
Published Date:
February 2010
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    Kemal Derviş

    Dr. Kemal Derviş is Vice President and Director of the Global Economy and Development Program at the Brookings Institution and a member of the Board of Overseers of Sabanci University in Istanbul. He is also Chairman of the International Advisory Board of Akbank and an Advisor to the Director-General of the International Labour Organization.

    Until recently, Dr. Derviş was the Executive Head of the United Nations Development Programme and Chair of the United Nations Development Group. From 2002 to 2005, he served as a member of the Turkish Parliament, representing his native city of Istanbul. Prior to his tenure in Parliament, he served as the country’s Minister of Economic Affairs and the Treasury.

    Before his service in the Turkish government, Dr. Derviş had a lengthy career at the World Bank, where he became Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa in 1996 and Vice President for Poverty Reduction and Economic Management in 2000.

    Dr. Derviş earned his bachelor’s and master’s degrees in economics from the London School of Economics and his doctorate from Princeton University. His most recent book, A Better Globalization, was published in 2005.

    The Per Jacobsson Lectures

    2009Growth After the Storm? A Longer-Run Perspective. Lecture by Kemal Derviş.
    2008The Role and Governance of the IMF: Further Reflections on Reform. Symposium panelists: Stanley Fischer, Trevor Manuel, Jean Pisani-Ferry, and Raghuram Rajan.
    The Approach to Macroeconomic Management: How It Has Evolved. Lecture by Lord George.
    2007Balance of Payments Imbalances. Lecture by Alan Greenspan.
    2006Asian Monetary Integration: Will It Ever Happen? Lecture by Tharman Shan-mugaratnam (Singapore).
    Competition Policy and Monetary Policy: A Comparative Perspective. Lecture by Mario Monti (Bern).
    2005International Financial Institutions: Dealing with New Global Challenges. Lecture by Michel Camdessus.
    2004The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Global Economy. Lecture by Lawrence H. Summers.
    Some New Directions for Financial Stability? Lecture by C.A.F. Goodhart, CBF (Zurich).
    2003The Arab World: Performance and Prospects. Lecture by Abdlatif Yousef Al-Hamad (Dubai).
    2073The Boom-Bust Capital Spending Cycle in the United States: Lessons Learned. Lecture by F. Gerald Corrigan.
    Recent Emerging Market Crises: What Have We Learned? Lecture by Guillermo Ortiz (Basel).
    2001No lecture took place due to the cancellation of the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.
    2000Ten Years On—Some Lessons from the Transition. Lecture by Josef Tošovský (Prague).
    Strengthening the Resilience of Financial Systems. Symposium panelists-. Peter B. Kenen, Arminio Fraga, and Jacques de Larosière (Lucerne).
    1999The Past and Future of European Integration—A Central Banker’s View. Lecture by Willem F. Duisenberg.
    1998Managing the International Economy in the Age of Globalization. Lecture by Peter D. Sutherland.
    1997Asian Monetary Cooperation. Lecture by Joseph C.K. Yam, CBE, JP (Hong Kong SAR).
    1996Financing Development in a World of Private Capital Flows: The Challenge for International Financial Institutions in Working with the Private Sector. Lecture by Jacques de Larosière.
    1995Economic Transformation: The Tasks Still Ahead. Symposium panelists-. Jan Svejnar, Oleh I Havrylyshyn, and Sergei K. Dubinin.
    1994Central Banking in Transition. Lecture by Baron Alexandre Lamfalussy (London).
    Capital Flows to Emerging Countries: Are They Sustainable? Lecture by Guillermo de la Dehesa (Madrid).
    1993Latin America: Economic and Social Transition to the Twenty-First Century. Lecture by Fnrique V. Iglesias.
    1992A New Monetary Order for Europe. Lecture by Karl Otto Pohl.
    1991The Road to European Monetary Union: Lessons from the Bretton Woods Regime. Lecture by Alexander K. Swoboda (Basel).
    Privatization: Financial Choices and Opportunities. Lecture by Amnuay Viravan (Bangkok).
    1990The Triumph of Central Banking? Lecture by Paul A. Volcker.
    1989Promoting Successful Adjustment: The Experience of Ghana. Lecture by J.L.S. Abbey.
    Economic Restructuring in New Zealand Since 1984. Lecture by David Caygill.
    1988The International Monetary System: The Next Twenty-Five Years. Symposium panelists: Sir Kit McMahon, Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, and C. Fred Bergsten (Basel).
    1987Interdependence: Vulnerability and Opportunity. Lecture by Sylvia Ostry.
    1986The Emergence of Global Finance. Lecture by Yusuke Kashiwagi.
    1985Do We Know Where We’re Going? Lecture by Sir Jeremy Morse (Seoul).
    1984Economic Nationalism and International Interdependence: The Global Costs of National Choices. Lecture by Peter G. Peterson.
    1983Developing a New International Monetary System: A Long-Term View. Lecture by H. Johannes Witteveen.
    1982Monetary Policy. Finding a Place to Stand. Lecture by Gerald K. Bouey (Toronto).
    1981Central Banking with the Benefit of Hindsight. Lecture by Jelle Zijlstra; commentary by Albert Adomakoh.
    1980Reflections on the International Monetary System. Lecture by Guillaume Guindey; commentary by Charles A. Coombs (Basel).
    1979The Anguish of Central Banking. Lecture by Arthur F. Burns; commentaries by Milutin Cirovic and Jacques J. Polak (Belgrade).
    1978The International Capital Market and the International Monetary System. Lecture by Gabriel Hauge and Erik Hoffmeyer; commentary by Lord Roll of Ipsden.
    1977The International Monetary System in Operation. Lectures by Wilfried Guth and Sir Arthur Lewis.
    1976Why Banks Are Unpopular. Lecture by Guido Carli; commentary by Milton Gilbert (Basel).
    1975Emerging Arrangements in International Payments: Public and Private. Lecture by Alfred Hayes; commentaries by Khodadad Farmanfarmaian, Carlos Massad, and Claudio Segré.
    1974Steps to International Monetary Order. Lectures by Conrad J. Oort and Puey Ungphakorn; commentaries by Saburo Okita and William McChesney Martin (Tokyo).
    1973Inflation and the International Monetary System. Lecture by Otmar Emminger; commentaries by Adolfo Diz and János Fekete (Basel).
    1972The Monetary Crisis of 1971: The Lessons to Be Learned. Lecture by Henry C. Wallich; commentaries by C.J. Morse and I.G. Patel.
    1971International Capital Movements: Past, Present, Future. Lecture by Sir Eric Roll; commentaries by Henry H. Fowler and Wilfried Guth.
    1970Toward a World Central Bank? Lecture by William McChesney Martin; commentaries by Karl Blessing, Alfredo Machado Gómez, and Harry G. Johnson (Basel).
    1969The Role of Monetary Gold over the Next Ten Years. Lecture by Alexandre Lam-falussy; commentaries by Wilfrid Baumgartner, Guido) Carli, and L.K. Jha.
    1968Central Banking and Economic Integration. Lecture by M.W. Holtrop; commentary by Lord Cromer (Stockholm).
    1967Economic Development: The Banking Aspects. Lecture by David Rockefeller; commentaries by Felipe Herrera and Shigeo Horie (Rio de Janeiro).
    1966The Role of the Central Banker Today. Lecture by Louis Rasminsky; commentaries by Donato Menichella, Stefano Siglienti, Marcus Wallenberg, and Franz Aschinger (Rome).
    1965The Balance Between Monetary Policy and Other Instruments of Economic Policy in a Modern Society. Lectures by C.D. Deshmukh and Robert V. Roosa.
    1964Economic Growth and Monetary Stability. Lectures by Maurice Frère and Rodrigo Gómez (Basel).

    The Per Jacobsson Lectures are available on the Internet at www.perjacobsson.org, which also contains further information on the Foundation. Copies of the Per Jacobsson Lectures may be acquired without charge from the Secretary. Unless otherwise indicated, the lectures were delivered in Washington, D.C.

    The Per Jacobsson Foundation

    Founding Honorary Chairmen:Eugene R. Black
    Marcus Wallenberg
    Past Chairmen:W. Randolph Burgess
    William McC. Martin
    Sir Jeremy Morse
    Jacques de Larosière
    Past Presidents:Frank A. Southard, Jr.
    Jacques J. Polak
    Leo Van Houtven
    Founding Sponsors
    Hermann J. AbsViscount HarcourtJean Monnet
    Roger AuboinGabriel HaugeWalter Muller
    Wilfrid BaumgartnerCarl Otto HenriquesJuan Pardo Heeren
    S. Clark BeiseM.W. HoltropFederico Pinedo
    B.M. BirlaShigeo HorieAbdul Qadir
    Rudolf BrinckmannClarence E. HunterSven Raab
    Lord CobboldH.V.R. IengarDavid Rockefeller
    Miguel CuadernoKaoru InouyeLord Salter
    R.v. FieandtAlbert E. JanssenPierre-Paul Schweitzer
    Maurice FrèreRaffaele MattioliSamuel Schweizer
    B.C. FussellJ.J. McElligottAllan Sproul
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    Board of Directors

    Sir Andrew D. Crockett — Chairman of the Board

    Abdlatif Y. Al-HamadGuillermo Ortiz
    Caroline AtkinsonAlassane D. Ouattara
    Nancy BirdsallDominique Strauss-Kahn
    Michel CamdessusShigemitsu Sugisaki
    Jaime CaruanaEdwin M. Truman
    E. Gerald CorriganLeo Van Houtven
    Malcolm D. KnightMarcus Wallenberg
    Horst Köhler
    Officers
    Caroline AtkinsonPresident
    Kate LangdonVice-President and Secretary
    Chris HemusTreasurer

    There is currently an attempt in the United States, which appears largely politically driven, to argue that the fiscal stimulus was ineffective. I will not get into that debate here, except to stress that a key fact to consider when evaluating the effectiveness of fiscal expansion should be the interest rate. If fiscal expansion leads to a substantial rise in interest rates, it is not effective and instead crowds out private spending. If interest rates remain low, as they have so far, there is a good case for saying that it is indeed effective. It is not only fiscal policy that helped, of course. Direct intervention in the financial sector, as well as aggressive monetary easing, were at least as important.

    See, for example, Charles R. Nelson and Charles R. Plosser, “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 10, No. 2 (1982), pp. 139-62; Robert E. Lucas, “Macroeconomic Priorities” (2003 AEA Presidential Address), American Economic Review, Vol. 93, No. 1 (2003), pp. 1-14; Valerie Cerra and Sweta C. Saxena, “Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery,” Working Paper No. 226 (Basel: Bank for International Settlements, 2007); and Valerie Cerra, Ugo Panizza, and Sweta C. Saxena, “International Evidence on Recovery from Recessions,” Working Paper No. 09-183 (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2009).

    These are the words used by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher in a speech at the University of California, as reported by Reuters on September 4.

    Commisssion on Growth and Development, Post-Crisis Growth in Developing Countries: A Special Report of the Commission on Growth and Development on the Implications of the 2008 Financial Crisis (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2009), p. 2.

    “[M]acroeconomics … has succeeded: its central problem of depression prevention has been solved.” Robert E. Lucas, “Macroeconomic Priorities” (2003 AEA Presidential Address), American Economic Review, Vol. 93, No. 1 (2003), pp. 1-14.

    George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Schiller, Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Glohal Capitalism (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009).

    Fred Bergsten and Arvind Subramanian, “America Cannot Resolve Global Imbalances on Its Own,” Financial Times, August 19, 2009.

    For this to happen in a big way, the pace of governance reform at the IMF would have to increase.

    Latest findings by Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, cited in “A Long Way Down” (editorial), New York Times, September 16, 2009.

    Following the delivery of his prepared remarks, Dr. Dervi§ answered questions from audience members, as typically happens after Per Jacobsson Lectures. Unfortunately, technical difficulties with the equipment used to record the lecture prevent the reproduction of the question-and-answer session here.

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