Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

doi:10.5089/9781451974201.024.A001

IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2

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Volume:: 46
Series:: IMF Staff Papers
Author(s):: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher:: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Published Date:: January 1999
DOI:: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451974201.024
ISBN:: 9781451974201
ISSN:: 1020-7635
Page:: 148

This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.

Staff Papers Vol 46 No 2 (June 1999)

Article

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Author(s):: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:: January 1999

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IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

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