The IMF Country Reports Series covers economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with officials of the country, is published at the option of the member.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the potential growth rate for South Africa using different methodologies. In line with existing studies and findings for other emerging markets, the paper finds that South Africa's potential growth rate has declined in the post global financial crisis period. Though there is substantial uncertainty, South Africa's potential growth is estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.5 to 4 percent during 2000-08 to 2.25 to 2.50 percent in 2010-14, implying that the output gap in 2014 would be between -0.5 and -1.3 percent of GDP.