The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
We analyze the dramatic decline in India's inflation over the last two years using an
augmented Phillips Curve approach and quantify the role of different factors. Our results
suggest that, contrary to popular perception, the direct role of lower oil prices in India's
disinflation was relatively modest given the limited pass-through into domestic prices.
Instead, we find that inflation is a highly persistent process in India, reflecting very adaptive
expectations and the backward looking nature of wage and support price-setting. As a
consequence, we find that a moderation of expectations, both backward and forward, and a
rationalization of Minimum Support Prices (MSPs), explain the bulk of the disinflation over
the last two years.