The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
We find historical fiscal multipliers for Brazil around 0.5, larger than what existing
literature typically identifies for the average emerging market. However, spending and
public credit multipliers seem to have dropped to near zero since the global financial
crisis, as the estimate for the whole sample period (1999-2014) is about 1/2 of that for precrisis
years. By contrast, revenue multipliers have remained broadly stable. We conclude
that fiscal consolidations based on expenditure and public credit retrenchment are likely to
entail a modest drag on growth in the near term.