The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate the
potential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the United
States. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly the
next decade could be significant, but modest, ranging between 1 and 11/2 percent. Further,
while the impact on the U.S. energy trade balance will be large, most results suggest that
its impact on the overall U.S. current account will be negligible. The impact outside of the
United States will be modestly positive on average, but most countries dependent on
energy exports will be affected adversely.