The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
This paper investigates linkages between stock markets in seven industrialized countries since 1974. Empirical evidence shows that both nominal and real stock prices (and returns) are strongly positively correlated across countries, and that nominal exchange rate changes do not have systematic effects on nominal stock prices. A two-country theoretical model is developed and an attempt is made to reconcile the empirical findings with the properties of this model. Independent evidence on the main sources of shocks is used to argue that the time-varying correlation in the data can be reconciled with the predictions of the theory.