The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
A short-run macroeconomic model is estimated for Venezuela, in order to examine the hypothesis that the availability of oil resources may entail a confidence effect—on perceived future incomes—that influences the expenditure and portfolio behavior of economic agents. Such confidence effect is found to be empirically significant. Model simulations reveal that the impact of oil price changes on the level and variability of money demand, balance of payments and inflation are significantly more pronounced in the presence of the confidence effect than in its absence. This has significant implictions for the size and structure of the needed policy interventions.