The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
The exchange rate for the Lebanese pound experienced a protracted period of depreciation from end-1982 to November 1987, followed by a marked appreciation over the following six months. This paper investigates the competing hypotheses that the exchange rate over these two periods was driven by a speculative bubble versus “fundamental” economic variables. Reduced-form and time series models for the exchange rate are estimated and tested for nonstationarity. The results of these test suggest that the pound’s volatility in recent years was consistent with an excessive growth in domestic versus foreign currency denominated liquidity rather than speculation.