The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
This paper applies a disaggregated method for the calculation of the cyclical component of the budget balance for South Africa with an emphasis on the effect of commodity and asset prices, and credit cycle. Results show that the cyclicality of tax revenue is mostly explained by the variations in tax bases. Change in the credit to private sector also has some affect on the revenue performance; however, asset and commodity prices are not significant in explaining the deviation of revenue from its trend. Nonetheless, quantitative effects of these prices are subject to assumptions used for long-run price levels.