The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
This paper quantifies the effect of public investment on growth in the ECCU. The results, emerging from panel vector autoregressions, indicate that the return on public investment, as defined by Perreira (2000), is very likely negative. This means that the total change in real output induced by one EC dollar of public investment, due to its short-run impact on demand, or the longer-run impact on supply, is below one EC dollar. Public investment shocks also appear to appreciate the real exchange rate, suggesting that the short-run demand impact is larger than the long-run supply response.