The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
This paper discusses stabilization policy in the presence of bands for the exchange rate. The bands are modelled in a probabilistic sense: monetary policy has to be such as to keep the probability, that the exchange rate stays within the bands, above a certain threshold. In contrast to other models of target zones, this formulation leads to a linear decision rule and implies sizeable intra-marginal interventions, which corresponds to the experience in the EMS. The extent to which short-run monetary policy is constraint by the bands depends on its own long-run components and on fiscal policy.