The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift toward a slower growth path after the dramatic developments associated with the years of heavy immigration. Israel poses a challenge because traditional methods of measuring potential output assume relatively stable conditions over an extended period of time. We employ five methodologies to derive estimates and find that four of the measures imply the slowdown stems largely from reduced growth of potential output rather than a cyclical slowdown.