The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
This paper examines the effects of demographic dynamics on the measured rates of economic growth. First, it develops a model of production with labor productivity that varies with age. Second, it uses macroeconomic and demographic data to estimate the relative productivity of different age groups. Third, it constructs a panel database of effective labor supply in order to reflect the changing age-structure of the population. Fourth, it decomposes the historical measured growth rates into effects of demographic dynamics and into “real” growth rates, net of demographic effects.