Uncertainties arising from conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen are weakening confidence and lower oil prices are taking a toll on exports and economic activity in oil exporters. Oil importers are benefiting from lower oil prices, although declining remittances from oil exporters are partly offsetting these benefits. MENAP growth will be modest at 3½ percent this year, with little improvement expected in 2017. Considerable uncertainty surrounds these forecasts, however, because of the fluctuation in oil prices and the threat of regional conflicts. Structural transformations are needed across the region to raise medium-term prospects and create jobs.