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Regional Economic Outlook, November 2017, Europe

Europe Hitting Its Stride

The European recovery is strengthening and broadening appreciably. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2017, up from 1.7 percent in 2016, before easing to 2.1 percent in 2018.

IMF Financial Operations 2016

Describes the IMF's financial organization, policies and lending arrangements, and financial statements, reflecting all policy decisions through April 2016.

Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean

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Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean »

Series: Books

Author(s): Krishna Srinivasan , Inci Otker , Uma Ramakrishnan , and Trevor Alleyne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484315194.071

ISBN: 9781484315194

Keywords: Financial analysis, International financial markets, International financial cooperation, Financial integration, Economic growth, Inclusive growth, Regional integration, Regional economic integration, Economic integration, Caribbean

This book provides a diagnosis of the central economic and financial challenges facing Caribbean policymakers and offers broad policy recommendations for promoting a sustained and inclusive increase in economic wel...

The Sectoral Effects of Real Depreciations in Latin America

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The Sectoral Effects of Real Depreciations in Latin America »

Volume/Issue: 2017/249

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sergi Lanau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328477.001

ISBN: 9781484328477

Keywords: real exchange rate; depreciation; exports; imports; growth.

This papers explores the effects of real exchange rate depreciations on growth across sectors, identifying export, cost, and import-penetration channels. It tests the existence and magnitude of these channels in a...

LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics

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LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 2017/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Geoffrey Bannister , Manuk Ghazanchyan , and Theodore Bikoi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325742.001

ISBN: 9781484325742

Keywords: External trade statictics, bilateral assymetries, trade partner data, imports and exports, customs data.

This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports...

How Should Shale Gas Extraction Be Taxed?

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How Should Shale Gas Extraction Be Taxed? »

Volume/Issue: 2017/254

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philip Daniel , Alan Krupnick , Thornton Matheson , Peter Mullins , Ian Parry , and Artur Swistak

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328491.001

ISBN: 9781484328491

Keywords: shale gas; environmental risks; corrective taxes; liability; fiscal regime design; simulated projects; marginal effective tax rates.

This paper suggests that the environmental and commercial features of shale gas extraction do not warrant a significantly different fiscal regime than recommended for conventional gas. Fiscal policies may have a ro...

Does Import Competition Induce R&D Reallocation? Evidence from the U.S.

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Does Import Competition Induce R&D Reallocation? Evidence from the U.S. »

Volume/Issue: 2017/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rui Xu , and Kaiji Gong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326008.001

ISBN: 9781484326008

Keywords: Chinese Import Competition, R&;D Expenditures, Reallocation

We analyze the impact of rising import competition from China on U.S. innovative activities. Using Compustat data, we find that import competition induces R&D expenditures to be reallocated towards more productive...

Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications

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Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2017/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valerie Cerra , and Sweta Saxena

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325759.001

ISBN: 9781484325759

Keywords: booms, crises, recoveries, business cycle, output gap, growth, development, fiscal policy, monetary policy, foreign reserves

All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual an...

Bank Capital and Lending: An Extended Framework and Evidence of Nonlinearity

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Bank Capital and Lending: An Extended Framework and Evidence of Nonlinearity »

Volume/Issue: 2017/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mario Catalan , Alexander Hoffmaister , and Cicilia Anggadewi Harun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325995.001

ISBN: 9781484325995

Keywords: Bank capital; Bank lending; Financial shocks; Transmission mechanisms.

This paper studies the transmission of bank capital shocks to loan supply in Indonesia. A series of theoretically founded dynamic panel data models are estimated and find nonlinear effects of capital on loan growth...

Assessing China's Residential Real Estate Market

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Assessing China's Residential Real Estate Market »

Volume/Issue: 2017/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ding Ding , Xiaoyu Huang , Tao Jin , and W. Raphael Lam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324813.001

ISBN: 9781484324813

Keywords: China real estate market, housing bubbles, macroprudential policy

China's real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks...

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery

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The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery »

Volume/Issue: 2017/242

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Aqib Aslam , Emine Boz , Eugenio Cerutti , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328279.001

ISBN: 9781484328279

Keywords: International Trade, Globalization, Trade Policy, Investment

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposi...

Taxing Telecommunications in Developing Countries

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Taxing Telecommunications in Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2017/247

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thornton Matheson , and Patrick Petit

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324981.001

ISBN: 9781484324981

Keywords: Cell, cellular, phone, telecommunications, tax, rent, regulation, excise

Developing countries apply numerous sector-specific taxes to telecommunications, whose buoyant revenues and formal enterprises provide a convenient 'tax handle'. This paper explores whether there is an economic rat...