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Regional Economic Outlook, November 2017, Europe

Europe Hitting Its Stride

The European recovery is strengthening and broadening appreciably. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2017, up from 1.7 percent in 2016, before easing to 2.1 percent in 2018.

IMF Financial Operations 2016

Describes the IMF's financial organization, policies and lending arrangements, and financial statements, reflecting all policy decisions through April 2016.

Bosnia and Herzegovina
			: Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission

New
Bosnia and Herzegovina : Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2018/25

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 February 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484339923.002

ISBN: 9781484339923

Keywords: Europe, Bosnia and Herzegovina

In the framework of the second phase of the Swiss Sate Secretariat of Economic Affairs (SECO) government finance statistics (GFS) capacity building project, a technical assistance (TA) mission on GFS, conducted by...

International Financial Statistics, February 2018

New
International Financial Statistics, February 2018 »

Series: International Financial Statistics

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 February 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484331057.041

ISBN: 9781484331057

International Financial Statistics, Database & Browser, February 2017...

Republic of Kosovo
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Kosovo

New
Republic of Kosovo : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Kosovo »

Volume/Issue: 2018/30

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 February 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484340431.002

ISBN: 9781484340431

Keywords: Europe, Kosovo

Kosovo has made significant progress since the 2015 Article IV consultation in ensuring fiscal discipline, strengthening the financial sector, and enhancing growth. Notwithstanding this progress, important structur...

Uruguay
			: Selected Issues

New
Uruguay : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/24

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484339824.002

ISBN: 9781484339824

Keywords: Uruguay, Western Hemisphere

Selected Issues...

Uruguay
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uruguay

New
Uruguay : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uruguay »

Volume/Issue: 2018/23

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338322.002

ISBN: 9781484338322

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Uruguay

2017 has been a good year for Uruguay. GDP growth picked up and the unemployment rate stabilized. A relatively tight monetary policy stance and an appreciating exchange rate contributed to a notable decline in infl...

Malta
			: Selected Issues

New
Malta : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/20

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484339510.002

ISBN: 9781484339510

Keywords: Malta, Europe

Selected Issues...

Malta
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report

New
Malta : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/19

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484339466.002

ISBN: 9781484339466

Keywords: Malta, Europe

Malta remains one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe, aided by a rapid expansion of export-oriented services, favorable labor market dynamics, and prudent policies, which advanced structural reforms and str...

Kuwait
			: Selected Issues

New
Kuwait : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/22

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484339633.002

ISBN: 9781484339633

Keywords: Middle East, Kuwait

Selected Issues...

Kuwait
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kuwait

New
Kuwait : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kuwait »

Volume/Issue: 2018/21

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484339572.002

ISBN: 9781484339572

Keywords: Kuwait, Middle East

Kuwait is facing 'lower-for-longer' oil prices from a position of strength, owing to large financial buffers, low debt, and a sound financial sector. Nonetheless, lower oil prices have weakened fiscal and external...

Euroization Drivers and Effective Policy Response: An Application to the case of Albania

New
Euroization Drivers and Effective Policy Response: An Application to the case of Albania »

Volume/Issue: 2018/21

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Guido della Valle , Vasilika Kota , Romain Veyrune , Ezequiel Cabezon , and Shaoyu Guo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338728.001

ISBN: 9781484338728

Keywords: Dollarization, Europe, Financial stability, Albania, Central banks and their policies, euroization, and reserve requirement, reserve requirement

This paper proposes a methodology to develop empirically based and theoretically consistent deeuroization policies. It is derived from the experience of Albania. The paper is the first attempt to provide an empiric...

Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?

New
Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/17

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Leandro Medina , and Friedrich Schneider

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338636.001

ISBN: 9781484338636

Keywords: Shadow economy, Tax evasion, informal economy, survey, multiple indicators multiple Causes (MIMIC), comparison of different estimation methods, the light intensity approach, predictive mean matching (PMM), Other, Model Construction and Estimation

We undertake an extended discussion of the latest developments about the existing and new estimation methods of the shadow economy. New results on the shadow economy for 158 countries all over the world are present...

Reserve Currency Blocs: A Changing International Monetary System?

New
Reserve Currency Blocs: A Changing International Monetary System? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/20

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Camilo Tovar Mora , and Tania Mohd Nor

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338704.001

ISBN: 9781484338704

Keywords: Economic integration, Foreign exchange, International monetary system, Currency Bloc, Internatinal Monetary System, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Open Economy Macroeconomics

What is the extent of currency diversification in the international monetary system? How has it evolved over time? In this paper, we quantify the degree of currency diversification using regression methods of curre...

On International Integration of Emerging Sovereign Bond Markets

New
On International Integration of Emerging Sovereign Bond Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2018/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Itai Agur , Melissa Chan , Mangal Goswami , and Sunil Sharma

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338667.001

ISBN: 9781484338667

Keywords: Emerging markets, International financial markets, Bond markets, Capital flows, Financial Globalization, Safe Assets, Debt Denomination, Factor Analysis, F21, F65

The paper investigates the international integration of EM sovereign dollar-denominated and local-currency bond markets. Factor analysis is used to examine movements in sovereign bond yields and common sources of y...

New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics

New
New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 2018/16

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marco Marini , Robert Dippelsman , and Michael Stanger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338629.001

ISBN: 9781484338629

Keywords: Merchandise trade, Benchmarking, Cross-Sectional Models, Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data

In March 2017, the IMF published an upgrade of its Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset. This paper documents the new methodology that has been developed to estimate missing observations of bilateral trade...

Household Credit, Global Financial Cycle, and Macroprudential Policies
			: Credit Register Evidence from an Emerging Country

New
Household Credit, Global Financial Cycle, and Macroprudential Policies : Credit Register Evidence from an Emerging Country »

Volume/Issue: 2018/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mircea Epure , Irina Mihai , Camelia Minoiu , and José-Luis Peydró

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338599.001

ISBN: 9781484338599

Keywords: Household credit, Romania, Europe, Central banks and their policies, macroprudential policies, global financial cycle, cross-border spillovers, General

We analyze the effects of macroprudential policies on local bank credit cycles and interactions with international financial conditions. For identification, we exploit the comprehensive credit register containing a...

Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization?

New
Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/15

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nicolas Arregui , Selim Elekdag , R. Gelos , Romain Lafarguette , and Dulani Seneviratne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338612.001

ISBN: 9781484338612

Keywords: Monetary policy, Financial conditions, international policy transmission, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General, General, General

This paper examines the evolving importance of common global components underlying domestic financial conditions. It develops financial conditions indices (FCIs) that make it possible to compare a large set of adva...

An Application of Distribution-Neutral Fiscal Policy

New
An Application of Distribution-Neutral Fiscal Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2018/12

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sanjeev Gupta , Sugata Marjit , and Sandip Sarkar

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338568.001

ISBN: 9781484338568

Keywords: Strong Pareto Superiority; Inequality; Compensation mechanism;, Strong Pareto Superiority, Inequality, Compensation mechanism, Neoclassical Models of Trade, Equity, Justice, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement, General

Distribution neutral fiscal policy refers to a structure of taxes and transfers that keep the income distribution unchanged even after positive or negative shocks to an economy. This is referred to as a Strong Pare...

A New Wave of ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies: Domestic Impact and Spillovers

New
A New Wave of ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies: Domestic Impact and Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2018/11

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Richard Varghese , and Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338544.001

ISBN: 9781484338544

Keywords: Yield Curve, Quantitative Easing, Event Study, General, General

ECB President Draghi's Jackson Hole speech in August 2014 arguably marked a new phase of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) in the euro area. This paper examines the market impact and tranmission channels of t...

A Narrative Database of Major Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies

New
A Narrative Database of Major Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2018/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Romain Duval , Davide Furceri , Bingjie Hu , João Tovar Jalles , and Huy Nguyen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338698.001

ISBN: 9781484338698

Keywords: Reform; Regulation; Product Market; Network Industries; Labor Market; Employment Protection; Unemployment insurance, Reform, Regulation, Product Market, Network Industries, Labor Market, Employment Protection, Unemployment insurance, Legal Monopolies and Regulation or Deregulation, Economics of Regulation

This paper describes a new database of major labor and product market reforms covering 26 advanced economies over the period 1970-2013. The focus is on large changes in product market regulation in seven individual...

A Comprehensive Multi-Sector Tool for Analysis of Systemic Risk and Interconnectedness (SyRIN)

New
A Comprehensive Multi-Sector Tool for Analysis of Systemic Risk and Interconnectedness (SyRIN) »

Volume/Issue: 2018/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Cortes , Peter Lindner , Sheheryar Malik , and Miguel Segoviano Basurto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338605.001

ISBN: 9781484338605

Keywords: Financial stability; systemic risk; shadow banks; mutual funds; spillovers, Financial stability, systemic risk, shadow banks, mutual funds, spillovers, Mathematical Methods, Other, Model Evaluation and Testing, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper presents the Systemic Risk and Interconnectedness (SyRIN) tool. SyRIN allows a comprehensive assessment of systemic risk via quantification of the impact of risk amplification mechanisms, due to intercon...

Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Linkages, Contagious Banking Crises, and 'Coordinated' Macroprudential Policies

Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Linkages, Contagious Banking Crises, and 'Coordinated' Macroprudential Policies »

Volume/Issue: 2018/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Seung Choi , Laura Kodres , and Jing Lu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338476.001

ISBN: 9781484338476

Keywords: Banking crisis, Financial crisis, Trade Linkages, Financial Linkages, Macroprudential Policies, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

This paper examines whether the coordinated use of macroprudential policies can help lessen the incidence of banking crises. It is well-known that rapid domestic credit growth and house price growth positively infl...

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/10

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jeffrey Franks , Bergljot Barkbu , Rodolphe Blavy , William Oman , and Hanni Schoelermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338490.001

ISBN: 9781484338490

Keywords: Business cycles, Economic integration, Euro Area, Financial cycles, Convergence, synchronization, Economic and Monetary Union, Optimum Currency Area, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred a...

People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
			: Selected Issues

People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/17

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338377.002

ISBN: 9781484338377

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China

People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region-Selected Issues...

People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Statement by the Executive Director for People's Republic of China--Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Statement by the Executive Director for People's Republic of China--Hong Kong Special Administrative Region »

Volume/Issue: 2018/16

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338346.002

ISBN: 9781484338346

Keywords: Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, Asia and Pacific

Growth bottomed out and economic activity has gathered momentum since the second half of 2016 and over the course of 2017, in line with the global economic recovery. The macroeconomic outlook has improved and a rob...

India
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision

India : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision »

Volume/Issue: 2018/4

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337080.002

ISBN: 9781484337080

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, India

The RBI is to be commended for the remarkable progress in strengthening banking supervision since the last FSAP. Supervision and regulation by the RBI remain strong and have improved in recent years. A key achievem...

Rwanda
			: Eighth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Extension, and Third Review Under the Standby Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda

Rwanda : Eighth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Extension, and Third Review Under the Standby Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda »

Volume/Issue: 2018/13

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338070.002

ISBN: 9781484338070

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Rwanda

Rwanda's economy continues to perform well. Growth in 2016 and the first half of 2017 was weaker than projected, but was higher than regional averages and is projected to recover over 2017-19. Inflation is projecte...

Tonga
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and the Staff Report for Tonga

Tonga : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and the Staff Report for Tonga »

Volume/Issue: 2018/12

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338032.002

ISBN: 9781484338032

Keywords: Tonga, Asia and Pacific

Over recent years, Tonga has enjoyed robust growth and macroeconomic stability, with the construction sector being the main driver of growth. Tonga's reliance on private and official transfers poses sustainability...

Uganda
			: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary and Foreign Exchange Operations, Recapitalization, and Act Revision

Uganda : Technical Assistance Report-Monetary and Foreign Exchange Operations, Recapitalization, and Act Revision »

Volume/Issue: 2018/10

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337813.002

ISBN: 9781484337813

Keywords: Uganda, Sub-Saharan Africa

The BOU has been successful in guiding core inflation close to target in recent years in line with its Inflation Targeting Lite (ITL) monetary framework adopted in mid-2011. The experience since then demonstrates t...

Uganda
			: Technical Assistance Report-Moving Towards Risk-Based Supervision of Insurance in Uganda: Training on Supervision of Reinsurance and   Assisting on an Industry Seminar on Risk-Based Supervision

Uganda : Technical Assistance Report-Moving Towards Risk-Based Supervision of Insurance in Uganda: Training on Supervision of Reinsurance and Assisting on an Industry Seminar on Risk-Based Supervision »

Volume/Issue: 2018/7

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337400.002

ISBN: 9781484337400

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda

This report describes the tasks completed, findings and recommendations of the mission undertaken during the period October 26-November 4, 2015. The mission built further on previous AFE missions and focussed on (i...

Republic of Tanzania
			: Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report

Republic of Tanzania : Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/11

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337981.002

ISBN: 9781484337981

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania

Tanzania's economic program supported by the 2014-18 PSI has been marked by relatively strong macroeconomic performance, but uneven implementation of structural reforms. Recent economic performance has been mixed...

Republic of Croatia
			: Selected Issues

Republic of Croatia : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/6

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337363.002

ISBN: 9781484337363

Keywords: Croatia, Europe

Selected Issues...

Republic of Croatia
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Croatia

Republic of Croatia : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Croatia »

Volume/Issue: 2018/5

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337325.002

ISBN: 9781484337325

Keywords: Europe, Croatia

Near-term growth prospects are favorable, supported by strong tourism and private consumption, and a significantly improved fiscal position and external environment. The economy is operating close to potential. Gro...

Cameroon
			: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Supplementary Information; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cameroon

Cameroon : First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Supplementary Information; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cameroon »

Volume/Issue: 2018/9

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337547.002

ISBN: 9781484337547

Keywords: Cameroon, Sub-Saharan Africa

Cameroon's performance under the three-year ECF-supported program approved in June has been satisfactory, with the fiscal and external adjustments contributing to the rebuilding of buffers. Growth in 2017-18 is exp...

Regulatory Cycles: Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises

Regulatory Cycles: Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2018/8

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jihad Dagher

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337745.001

ISBN: 9781484337745

Keywords: Political economy, Political economy, Financial crises, Financial Regulation, Boom-Bust Cycles, Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior, Positive Analysis of Policy-Making and Implementation

Financial crises are traditionally analyzed as purely economic phenomena. The political economy of financial booms and busts remains both under-emphasized and limited to isolated episodes. This paper examines the p...

Where Does Multinational Investment Go with Territorial Taxation? Evidence from the UK

Where Does Multinational Investment Go with Territorial Taxation? Evidence from the UK »

Volume/Issue: 2018/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Li Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337493.001

ISBN: 9781484337493

Keywords: Europe, Foreign direct investment, United Kingdom, corporate tax policy, multinational firms, Business Taxes and Subsidies, General

In 2009, the United Kingdom changed from a worldwide to a territorial tax system, abolishing dividend taxes on foreign repatriation from many low-tax countries. This paper assesses the causal effect of territorial...

Investment in Brazil: From Crisis to Recovery

Investment in Brazil: From Crisis to Recovery »

Volume/Issue: 2018/6

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ivo Krznar , and Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337417.001

ISBN: 9781484337417

Keywords: Investment, Western Hemisphere, Brazil, Recession

While Brazil's deep recession has been broad based, it has been marked by a particularly large fall in investment. Real investment fell by around 30 percent between the beginning of 2014 and the beginning of 2017....

Sri Lanka
			: Third Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka : Third Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka »

Volume/Issue: 2018/3

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337035.002

ISBN: 9781484337035

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Sri Lanka

Macro stabilization and two major tax reforms were the key outcomes of the first half of the program. Sri Lanka is pursuing a 3-year reform program with IMF support under the extended arrangement under the Extended...

Senegal
			: Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report

Senegal : Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/8

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337509.002

ISBN: 9781484337509

Keywords: Senegal, Sub-Saharan Africa

Economic performance. Growth is expected to stay high at close to 7 percent in 2017, similar to 2016, with inflation contained at 2 percent. A negative terms of trade shock combined with higher capital imports wide...

Public Wage Bills in the Middle East and Central Asia

Public Wage Bills in the Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , and Christoph Duenwald

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484336731.087

ISBN: 9781484336731

Keywords: Public sector, Public sector wages, Public employment, Public expenditure management, Public expenditures reform, Public services, Public employment systems, Public sector; Public sector wages; Public employment; Public expenditure management; Public expenditures reform; Public services; Public employment systems

Analysis of policies for managing public sector wage bills in the Middle East and Central Asia region. While some work has been done recently at the Fund on issues related to government employment and compensation,...

Uncertainty and Cross-Border Banking Flows

Uncertainty and Cross-Border Banking Flows »

Volume/Issue: 2018/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sangyup Choi , and Davide Furceri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484336793.001

ISBN: 9781484336793

Keywords: Sudden stops, uncertainty, cross-border banking flows, retrenchment, portfolio rebalancing, flight-to-quality, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

While global uncertainty-measured by the VIX-has proven to be a robust global 'push' factor of international capital flows, there has been no systematic study assessing the role of country-specific uncertainty as a...

Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations

Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations »

Volume/Issue: 2018/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gabriel Di Bella , and Francesco Grigoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484336748.001

ISBN: 9781484336748

Keywords: Expectations, Animal spirits, fluctuations, optimism, pessimism, self-fulfilling

Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or...

Growth-Equity Trade-offs in Structural Reforms

Growth-Equity Trade-offs in Structural Reforms »

Volume/Issue: 2018/5

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonathan Ostry , Andrew Berg , and Siddharth Kothari

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484336809.001

ISBN: 9781484336809

Keywords: Structural Reforms, Growth, Inequality, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Planning, Coordination, and Reform

Do structural reforms that aim to boost potential output also change the distribution of income? We shed light on this question by looking at the broad patterns in the cross-country data covering advanced, emerging...

Foreign Banks and Credit Dynamics in CESEE

Foreign Banks and Credit Dynamics in CESEE »

Volume/Issue: 2018/3

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maria Arakelyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484336779.001

ISBN: 9781484336779

Keywords: Foreign banks, International financial markets, credit growth, emerging europe, Globalization: Finance

We use bank-level data on 16 CESEE economies over 2005-2014 to assess the role of foreign banks in the region's credit dynamics. We confirm that macroeconomic fundamentals of both host and home countries matter, as...

Credit Booms-Is China Different?

Credit Booms-Is China Different? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sally Chen , and Joong Shik Kang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484336762.001

ISBN: 9781484336762

Keywords: Financial crises, Financial cycles, Banking crises, Asia and Pacific, credit gap, debt overhang, sustainable growth, General

Strong Chinese output growth after the Global Financial Crisis was supported by booming credit. This credit boom carries risks. International experience suggests that China's credit growth is on a dangerous traject...

Benin
			: Selected Issues

Benin : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/2

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484336540.002

ISBN: 9781484336540

Keywords: Benin, Sub-Saharan Africa

Selected Issues...

Benin
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Benin

Benin : 2017 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Benin »

Volume/Issue: 2017/1

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484336533.002

ISBN: 9781484336533

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Benin

Upon assuming office in April 2016, the new government moved swiftly to address the deteriorating fiscal situation compounded by spillovers from Nigeria and requested Fund support under the Extended Credit Facility...

Mexico
			: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes-FATF Recommendations for Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT)

Mexico : Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes-FATF Recommendations for Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) »

Volume/Issue: 2017/406

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335543.002

ISBN: 9781484335543

Mexico has a mature AML/CFT regime, with a correspondingly well-developed legal and institutional framework. There has been a significant improvement in some areas of the country's AML/CFT regime compared to that w...

Mexico
			: Detailed Assessment Report-Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism

Mexico : Detailed Assessment Report-Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism »

Volume/Issue: 2017/405

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335482.002

ISBN: 9781484335482

Keywords: Mexico, Western Hemisphere

This report provides a summary of the anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) measures in place in Mexico as at the date of the onsite visit (February 28 to March 16, 2017). It analyzes...

Papua New Guinea
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Papua New Guinea »

Volume/Issue: 2017/411

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335918.002

ISBN: 9781484335918

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is experiencing weak economic growth resulting from falls in major commodity export prices, the completion of the huge PNG LNG pipeline project, and a severe drought. These developments have...

Argentina
			: Selected Issues

Argentina : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/410

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335833.002

ISBN: 9781484335833

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Argentina

Selected Issues...

Argentina
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina

Argentina : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina »

Volume/Issue: 2017/409

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335741.002

ISBN: 9781484335741

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Argentina

The economy is rebounding. The government has unwound multiple distortions and made important progress in restoring integrity and transparency in public sector operations. These policy changes have put the economy...

International Financial Statistics, January 2018

International Financial Statistics, January 2018 »

Series: International Financial Statistics

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484329757.041

ISBN: 9781484329757

International Financial Statistics, January 2018...

Gabon
			: First Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modifications of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Gabon

Gabon : First Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modifications of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Gabon »

Volume/Issue: 2017/408

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335697.002

ISBN: 9781484335697

Economic activity remains subdued. Budget execution has taken place in difficult conditions given recent shortfalls in non-oil revenues and delays in domestic and external financing. Growth is expected to rebound i...

People's Republic of China
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program- Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Iosco Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation

People's Republic of China : Financial Sector Assessment Program- Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Iosco Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation »

Volume/Issue: 2017/404

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335307.002

ISBN: 9781484335307

Keywords: Asia and Pacific

The authorities' vision of ensuring that the capital markets support China's transformation towards a more market-oriented economy has driven capital markets development and-as the authorities recognize-the regulat...

People's Republic of China
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program- Detailed Assessment of Observance of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision

People's Republic of China : Financial Sector Assessment Program- Detailed Assessment of Observance of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision »

Volume/Issue: 2017/403

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335222.002

ISBN: 9781484335222

Keywords: Asia and Pacific

The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has maintained its momentum in regulation and supervision in the face of exceptional growth in scale and increasing complexity of the banking system. Equally, the CBRC...

People's Republic of China
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program- Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Insurance Core Principles

People's Republic of China : Financial Sector Assessment Program- Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Insurance Core Principles »

Volume/Issue: 2017/402

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335154.002

ISBN: 9781484335154

Keywords: Asia and Pacific

The Chinese insurance sector is experiencing rapid growth, posing particular challenges to effective supervision. The sector has been growing by over 20 percent a year and there are ambitious government targets for...

Why are Countries' Asset Portfolios Exposed to Nominal Exchange Rates?

Why are Countries' Asset Portfolios Exposed to Nominal Exchange Rates? »

Volume/Issue: 2017/291

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonathan Adams , and Philip Barrett

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335468.001

ISBN: 9781484335468

Keywords: Country portfolios, international business cycles, home bias, gross asset positions, exchange rates, Backus-Smith puzzle, General, Open Economy Macroeconomics

Most countries hold large gross asset positions, lending in domestic currency and borrowing in foreign. Thus, their balance sheets are exposed to nominal exchange rates. We argue that when asset markets are incompl...

Structural Transformation and the Agricultural Wage Gap

Structural Transformation and the Agricultural Wage Gap »

Volume/Issue: 2017/289

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Alvarez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335444.001

ISBN: 9781484335444

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Brazil, Agriculture, Human capital, Wage Gaps, Structural Transformation, Sorting, Productivity Gaps, Labor Force and Employment, Size

A key feature of developing economies is that wages in agriculture are significantly below those of other sectors. Using Brazilian household surveys and administrative panel data, I use information on workers who s...

Shadow Banking and Market Discipline on Traditional Banks

Shadow Banking and Market Discipline on Traditional Banks »

Volume/Issue: 2017/285

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anil Ari , Matthieu Darracq-Paries , Christoffer Kok , and Dawid ?ochowski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335376.001

ISBN: 9781484335376

Keywords: Financial crisis, United States, Western Hemisphere, Financial crises, Shadow banking, Central banks and their policies, Market discipline, Fire-sales, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Government Policy and Regulation

We present a model in which shadow banking arises endogenously and undermines market discipline on traditional banks. Depositors' ability to re-optimize in response to crises imposes market discipline on traditiona...

Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries
			: Does the Size of Government Matter?

Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries : Does the Size of Government Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2017/287

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amir Sadeghi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335390.001

ISBN: 9781484335390

Keywords: Oil Price Shock, Government Expenditure, Growth, Oil-Exporting Countries, General

This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of govern...

Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods

Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods »

Volume/Issue: 2017/290

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alessandro Cantelmo , and Giovanni Melina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335451.001

ISBN: 9781484335451

Keywords: Monetary policy, durables, nondurables, price stickiness, relative price, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

In a SVAR model of the US, the response of the relative price of durables to a monetary contraction is either flat or mildly positive. It significantly falls only if narrowly defined as the ratio between new-house...

China's Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports

China's Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports »

Volume/Issue: 2017/288

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yibin Mu , Chu Wang , and Dong Frank Wu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335406.001

ISBN: 9781484335406

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Development, Exports, Growth, China Economy, SSA, General, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

The analysis of China's impacts on the 44 SSA countries reveals that: (i) after joining the WTO in 2001, China has started to impact significantly on SSA growth: one-percent increase in China's GDP per capita leads...

Australia's Fiscal Framework: Revisiting Options for a Fiscal Anchor

Australia's Fiscal Framework: Revisiting Options for a Fiscal Anchor »

Volume/Issue: 2017/286

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , Philippe Karam , Dirk Muir , and Siegfried Steinlein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335383.001

ISBN: 9781484335383

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Australia, Fiscal policy; fiscal rules; general equilibrium models; taxation; debt, Fiscal policy, fiscal rules, general equilibrium models, taxation, debt, Forecasting and Simulation, General

This paper revisits options for fiscal anchors in Australia against the backdrop of a medium-term budget balance anchor that has led to larger than expected upward drift in the net debt to GDP ratio since the end o...

Seychelles
			: Request for a Three-Year Policy Coordination Instrument and Ex-Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement-Press Release; Staff Report

Seychelles : Request for a Three-Year Policy Coordination Instrument and Ex-Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement-Press Release; Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/401

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335116.002

ISBN: 9781484335116

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Seychelles

Seychelles has made substantial progress toward external viability and fiscal sustainability since the 2008 crisis under three successive Fund arrangements. The public debt to GDP ratio has been reduced by almost t...

Bolivia
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Authorities of Bolivia

Bolivia : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Authorities of Bolivia »

Volume/Issue: 2017/395

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334683.002

ISBN: 9781484334683

Bolivia achieved impressive economic and social advances from 2004-14. Since the drop in commodity prices, the authorities have implemented countercyclical policies and an ambitious five-year investment plan (PDES)...

Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?

Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth? »

Volume/Issue: 2017/283

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlos Goncalves , and Mauro Rodrigues

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330135.001

ISBN: 9781484330135

Keywords: Real exchange rate, growth, misalignment

The impact of real exchange rate movements on GDP growth is a hotly debated issue both in policy and academic circles. In this paper, we provide evidence suggesting that the association between exchange rate misali...

St. Vincent and the Grenadines
			: Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

St. Vincent and the Grenadines : Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/400

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334980.002

ISBN: 9781484334980

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

With the international airport's entry in operations, the government has completed a key step of its strategy to spur still lackluster growth and tackle persistently high unemployment. The authorities' remaining ch...

Republic of Serbia
			: Eighth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia

Republic of Serbia : Eighth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia »

Volume/Issue: 2017/397

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334782.002

ISBN: 9781484334782

Keywords: Europe, Serbia

Recent economic developments. Notwithstanding some temporary supply shocks, economic activity remains robust, supported by recovery of private consumption and strong FDI. Significant fiscal over-performance has con...

Mongolia
			: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mongolia

Mongolia : First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mongolia »

Volume/Issue: 2017/396

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334737.002

ISBN: 9781484334737

Keywords: Mongolia, Asia and Pacific

A three-year arrangement for Mongolia under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) was approved on May 24, 2017, in an amount equivalent to SDR 314.5054 million (435 percent of quota, or approximately $425 million). The...

India
			: Financial System Stability Assessment-Press Release and Statement by the Executive Director for India

India : Financial System Stability Assessment-Press Release and Statement by the Executive Director for India »

Volume/Issue: 2017/390

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334164.002

ISBN: 9781484334164

Keywords: Middle East, Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of

Against the backdrop of important structural reforms and terms of trade gains, India recorded strong growth in recent years in both economic activity and financial assets. Increased diversification, commercial orie...

Republic of Moldova
			: Selected Issues

Republic of Moldova : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/399

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334928.002

ISBN: 9781484334928

Keywords: Moldova, Europe

Selected Issues...

Niger
			: First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report

Niger : First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/394

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334447.002

ISBN: 9781484334447

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Niger

With the second lowest Human Development Index and the highest population growth rate in the world, Niger is facing a daunting development agenda. Despite terrorist incursions from abroad and depressed prices for k...

Dominica
			: Selected Issues

Dominica : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/392

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334287.002

ISBN: 9781484334287

Keywords: Dominica, Western Hemisphere

Selected Issues...

Dominica
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

Dominica : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/391

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334256.002

ISBN: 9781484334256

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Dominica

The recovery from tropical storm Erika (August 2015) has been slower than anticipated. Capacity constraints slowed public investment while private investment was subdued. The authorities made progress on fiscal con...

Guinea
			: Request For A Three-Year Arrangement Under The Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea

Guinea : Request For A Three-Year Arrangement Under The Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea »

Volume/Issue: 2017/387

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333914.002

ISBN: 9781484333914

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Guinea

The Guinean economy has rebounded from the adverse impact of the Ebola epidemic and growth is expected to continue to be sustained supported by buoyant mining activity and the scaling-up of infrastructure investmen...

Guinea
			: Economic Development Documents

Guinea : Economic Development Documents »

Volume/Issue: 2017/388

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333945.002

ISBN: 9781484333945

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Guinea

Economic Development Documents...

Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC)
			: Selected Issues

Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/393

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334294.002

ISBN: 9781484334294

Selected Issues...

Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC)
			: Common Policies of Member Countries and Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director

Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) : Common Policies of Member Countries and Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director »

Volume/Issue: 2017/389

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334119.002

ISBN: 9781484334119

The sharp decline in oil revenues since 2014 continues to impair the region. In the last two years, regional economic growth has turned negative, fiscal and external imbalances have widened, public debt has risen r...

Republic of Madagascar
			: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report

Republic of Madagascar : Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/385

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333891.002

ISBN: 9781484333891

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Madagascar

Context. The gradual economic recovery has continued, with solid growth despite the drought and cyclone that hit Madagascar in early 2017. Fiscal performance has been roughly as planned, with strong revenue perform...

Republic of Belarus
			: Selected Issues

Republic of Belarus : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/384

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333280.002

ISBN: 9781484333280

Keywords: Belarus, Europe

Selected Issues...

Republic of Belarus
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Belarus

Republic of Belarus : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Belarus »

Volume/Issue: 2017/383

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333273.002

ISBN: 9781484333273

Keywords: Europe, Belarus

The Belarusian economy is recovering after two years of recession, helped by a more favorable external environment, better policies, and stronger domestic demand conditions. Near-term external financing pressures h...

Kiribati
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

Kiribati : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/386

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333907.002

ISBN: 9781484333907

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Kiribati

Kiribati is a small and fragile state vulnerable to climate change. Record high fishing revenue in recent years has boosted growth, improved the current account, and strengthened the fiscal stance. However, fishing...

Jordan
			: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA)

Jordan : Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) »

Volume/Issue: 2017/366

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484332221.002

ISBN: 9781484332221

Keywords: Jordan, Middle East

Jordan's public finances have deteriorated since the mid-2000s, resulting in a significant reduction in public investment. In response to several negative external shocks, notably the Iraq and Syria crises and the...

Guinea- Bissau
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau

Guinea- Bissau : 2017 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau »

Volume/Issue: 2017/380

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333150.002

ISBN: 9781484333150

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Guinea-Bissau

Background: The three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) was approved on July 10, 2015. Guinea-Bissau obtained a primary disbursement (SDR 2.84 million, 10 percent of quota) upon approval of...

Guinea- Bissau
			: Selected Issues Paper

Guinea- Bissau : Selected Issues Paper »

Volume/Issue: 2017/381

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333198.002

ISBN: 9781484333198

Keywords: Guinea-Bissau, Sub-Saharan Africa

Selected Issues Paper...

Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Principe
			: Third and Fourth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Extension of the Arrangement, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe

Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Principe : Third and Fourth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Extension of the Arrangement, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe »

Volume/Issue: 2017/382

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333266.002

ISBN: 9781484333266

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa

The economy is expected to grow at a steady pace of 4 percent in 2017, albeit slower than projected at the second review. Over the medium term, growth is projected to accelerate to 51/2 percent, spurred by tourism,...

Togo
			: First Review under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report

Togo : First Review under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/379

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333075.002

ISBN: 9781484333075

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Togo

Context: Growth is projected to hover around 5 percent and inflation to remain within the WAEMU convergence criteria of 3 percent during the 2017-19 program period. The authorities have started the fiscal consolida...

Cote d'Ivoire
			: Second Reviews under an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report

Cote d'Ivoire : Second Reviews under an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/372

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484332580.002

ISBN: 9781484332580

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa

Context. Meeting the demands of mutinous soldiers and striking civil servants secured social peace and stability. The authorities tightened security measures to address sporadic attacks on police and security insta...

The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2017/281

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Arizala , Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia , Charalambos Tsangarides , and Mustafa Yenice

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333112.001

ISBN: 9781484333112

Keywords: Africa, Africa, Growth, fiscal consolidations, fiscal multipliers, local projections, General

This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990-2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in adv...

Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk-Taking

Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk-Taking »

Volume/Issue: 2017/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anil Ari

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333051.001

ISBN: 9781484333051

Keywords: Financial crises, Banking crises, Risk-taking, Financial constraints, Sovereign debt crises, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General, International Lending and Debt Problems, Government Policy and Regulation

I propose a dynamic general equilibrium model in which strategic interactions between banks and depositors may lead to endogenous bank fragility and slow recovery from crises. When banks' investment decisions are n...

Job Protection Deregulation in Good and Bad Times

Job Protection Deregulation in Good and Bad Times »

Volume/Issue: 2017/277

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Romain Duval , Davide Furceri , and João Tovar Jalles

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333013.001

ISBN: 9781484333013

Keywords: Structural Reforms, Labor Market, Deregulation, Employment Protection; Growth; Employment, Employment Protection, Growth, Employment, Labor Economics Policies, Labor Force and Employment, Size

This paper explores the short-term employment effect of deregulating job protection for regular workers and how it varies with prevailing business cycle conditions. We apply a local projection method to a newly con...

International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries

International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2017/279

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Isha Agrawal , Rupa Duttagupta , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333044.001

ISBN: 9781484333044

Keywords: Commodity prices, Developing countries, Bank lending; Commodity prices; Macro-financial linkages; Developing countries, Bank lending, Macro-financial linkages, General, International Lending and Debt Problems, Global Commodity Crises

We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 develop...

Identical Twins? Destination-Based Cash-Flow Taxes Versus Consumption Taxes with Payroll Subsidies

Identical Twins? Destination-Based Cash-Flow Taxes Versus Consumption Taxes with Payroll Subsidies »

Volume/Issue: 2017/276

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Carton , Emilio Fernández Corugedo , and Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484332993.001

ISBN: 9781484332993

Keywords: tax policy; business taxation, financial accelerator, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; macroeconomic interdependence, tax policy, business taxation, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, macroeconomic interdependence, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research....

Firms and the Decline in Earnings Inequality in Brazil

Firms and the Decline in Earnings Inequality in Brazil »

Volume/Issue: 2017/278

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Alvarez , Felipe Benguria , Niklas Engbom , and Christian Moser

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333037.001

ISBN: 9781484333037

Keywords: Brazil, Western Hemisphere, Earnings Inequality, Linked Employer-Employee Data, Firm and Worker Heterogeneity, Productivity, Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis

We document a large decrease in earnings inequality in Brazil between 1996 and 2012. Using administrative linked employer-employee data, we fit high-dimensional worker and firm fixed effects models to understand th...

Crisis and Reform: The 1893 Demise of Banca Romana

Crisis and Reform: The 1893 Demise of Banca Romana »

Volume/Issue: 2017/274

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marco Pani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484332979.001

ISBN: 9781484332979

Keywords: Italy, Europe, Bank supervision, Banking crisis, Financial crises, Banca Romana; Italy; issuing banks; banking crisis; bank supervision; corruption, Banca Romana, issuing banks, corruption, Search

More than a century later, the Banca Romana crisis still provides useful insights on the challenges of preserving financial stability. This paper reviews the case and discusses implications that can be relevant tod...

Collective Bargaining Through the Magnifying Glass
			: A Comparison Between the Netherlands and Portugal

Collective Bargaining Through the Magnifying Glass : A Comparison Between the Netherlands and Portugal »

Volume/Issue: 2017/275

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexander Hijzen , Pedro Martins , and Jante Parlevliet

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484332986.001

ISBN: 9781484332986

Keywords: Netherlands, Portugal, Employment, Europe, Industrial relations, social dialogue, General, Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

Since the global financial crisis, sector-level bargaining has come under renewed scrutiny. While in Southern Europe, the crisis raised concerns about the role of collective bargaining as an obstacle to labor marke...

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
			: Selected Issues

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/378

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484332917.002

ISBN: 9781484332917

Keywords: Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of, Middle East

Selected Issues...

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan : 2017 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan »

Volume/Issue: 2017/377

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484332863.002

ISBN: 9781484332863

Keywords: Middle East, Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of

Context: Despite the sharp drawdown of NATO troops in 2014 and the deteriorated security situation, the National Unity Government (NUG) is making good progress in economic reforms and growth has picked up modestly....

Cyprus
			: Selected Issues

Cyprus : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/376

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484332757.002

ISBN: 9781484332757

Keywords: Europe, Cyprus

Selected Issues...

Cyprus
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus

Cyprus : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus »

Volume/Issue: 2017/375

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): Statistical Office of the European Communities

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484332726.002

ISBN: 9781484332726

Keywords: Cyprus, Europe

Cyprus has achieved an impressive turnaround since its banking crisis. Output growth has been accelerating for three consecutive years and is now strong, while unemployment is on a rapidly-declining path. The fisca...