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Regional Economic Outlook, November 2017, Europe

Europe Hitting Its Stride

The European recovery is strengthening and broadening appreciably. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2017, up from 1.7 percent in 2016, before easing to 2.1 percent in 2018.

IMF Financial Operations 2016

Describes the IMF's financial organization, policies and lending arrangements, and financial statements, reflecting all policy decisions through April 2016.

Georgia
			: First Review under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report

New
Georgia : First Review under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/361

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484331224.002

ISBN: 9781484331224

Recent economic developments. Economic activity has strengthened on the back of stronger growth in main trading partners. Fiscal overperformance and efforts to address structural weaknesses have helped boost confid...

Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

New
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/360

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484331194.002

ISBN: 9781484331194

The near-term growth and inflation outlook remains generally favorable, but the fiscal balance and external position have deteriorated substantially. Adjustment from high dependency on oil revenue and large infrast...

People's Republic of China
			: Financial System Stability Assessment-Press Release and Statement by the Executive Director for People's Republic of China

New
People's Republic of China : Financial System Stability Assessment-Press Release and Statement by the Executive Director for People's Republic of China »

Volume/Issue: 2017/358

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484331149.002

ISBN: 9781484331149

Since the 2011 FSAP, China's impressive economic growth has continued, and it is now undertaking a necessary but prolonged economic transformation. China is transitioning from an economic model based on exports and...

People's Republic of China
			: Detailed Assessment Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes

New
People's Republic of China : Detailed Assessment Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes »

Volume/Issue: 2017/359

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484331156.002

ISBN: 9781484331156

Detailed Assessment Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes...

Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World

New
Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World »

Series: Books

Author(s): Rabah Arezki , and Akito Matsumoto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484310328.071

ISBN: 9781484310328

Keywords: Energy and Commodity Markets; Boom and Bust; Volatility; Global Economy

A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analy...

Finance & Development, December 2017

New
Finance & Development, December 2017 »

Volume/Issue: 54/4

Series: Finance & Development

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484316207.022

ISBN: 9781484316207

Keywords: Finance and Development

Finance & Development, December 2017...

Honduras
			: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras

New
Honduras : Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras »

Volume/Issue: 2017/331

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325629.002

ISBN: 9781484325629

Keywords: Honduras, Western Hemisphere

Fund-supported program. The Executive Board approved a blended 36-months Standby Arrangement (SBA) and 24-months Stand-by Credit Facility (SCF) arrangement on December 3, 2014 for the total access of SDR 129.5 mill...

The Global FDI Network: Searching for Ultimate Investors

New
The Global FDI Network: Searching for Ultimate Investors »

Volume/Issue: 2017/258

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jannick Damgaard , and Thomas Elkjaer

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484329658.001

ISBN: 9781484329658

Keywords: FDI, multinational enterprises, special purpose entities, financial globalization

This paper addresses three types of geographical decoupling in foreign direct investment (FDI), i.e., challenges when using traditional FDI data as a proxy for real economic integration between economies: (i) large...

No Business Taxation Without Model Representation
			: Adding Corporate Income and Cash Flow Taxes to GIMF

New
No Business Taxation Without Model Representation : Adding Corporate Income and Cash Flow Taxes to GIMF »

Volume/Issue: 2017/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Carton , Emilio Fernández Corugedo , and Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326015.001

ISBN: 9781484326015

Keywords: tax policy; business taxation, financial accelerator, corporate leverage, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; macroeconomic interdependence

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper...

Growth and Jobs in Developing Economies: Trends and Cycles

New
Growth and Jobs in Developing Economies: Trends and Cycles »

Volume/Issue: 2017/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zidong An , Tayeb Ghazi , and Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484329627.001

ISBN: 9781484329627

Keywords: Employment, Structural Breaks, Okun’;s Law, Economic Fluctuations

This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and job creation in developing economies with a focus on low and lower middle-income countries along two dimensions: growth patterns and short-run co...

Credit Growth and Economic Recovery in Europe After the Global Financial Crisis

New
Credit Growth and Economic Recovery in Europe After the Global Financial Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2017/256

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sergei Antoshin , Marco Arena , Nikolay Gueorguiev , Tonny Lybek , John Ralyea , and Etienne Yehoue

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484329610.001

ISBN: 9781484329610

Keywords: credit growth, economic recovery, creditless recoveries, bank profitability, global financial crisis, Europe

This paper reviews the empirical relationships between credit growth, economic recovery, and bank profitability in Europe after the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that the post-GFC recoveries in Europe have...

Corruption, Taxes and Compliance

New
Corruption, Taxes and Compliance »

Volume/Issue: 2017/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anja Baum , Sanjeev Gupta , Elijah Kimani , and Sampawende Tapsoba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326039.001

ISBN: 9781484326039

Keywords: taxes, corruption, compliance, taxpayer offices

This paper revisits the effects of corruption on the state's capacity to raise revenue, building on the existing empirical literature using new and more disaggregated data. We use a comprehensive dataset for 147 co...

Zambia
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment

New
Zambia : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment »

Volume/Issue: 2017/349

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328361.002

ISBN: 9781484328361

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia

Nonperforming loans (NPLs) have risen and private sector credit growth has turned negative, due to the severe pressures of 2015-16. The pressures included slower economic growth, sharply lower copper prices, electr...

Sweden
			: Selected Issues

New
Sweden : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/351

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484329665.002

ISBN: 9781484329665

Keywords: Europe, Sweden

Selected Issues...

Sweden
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sweden

New
Sweden : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sweden »

Volume/Issue: 2017/350

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484329634.002

ISBN: 9781484329634

Keywords: Sweden, Europe

Sweden's economy continues to perform well, yet wage rises and inflation remain low. Growth of just over 3 percent is expected in 2017, with job creation running at over 2 percent, and underlying inflation around 1...

Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean

New
Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean »

Series: Books

Author(s): Krishna Srinivasan , Inci Otker , Uma Ramakrishnan , and Trevor Alleyne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484315194.071

ISBN: 9781484315194

Keywords: Financial analysis, International financial markets, International financial cooperation, Financial integration, Economic growth, Inclusive growth, Regional integration, Regional economic integration, Economic integration, Caribbean

This book provides a diagnosis of the central economic and financial challenges facing Caribbean policymakers and offers broad policy recommendations for promoting a sustained and inclusive increase in economic wel...

Assessing China's Residential Real Estate Market

New
Assessing China's Residential Real Estate Market »

Volume/Issue: 2017/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ding Ding , Xiaoyu Huang , Tao Jin , and W. Raphael Lam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324813.001

ISBN: 9781484324813

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Macroprudential Policy, Central banks and their policies, China real estate market, housing bubbles, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Housing Supply and Markets, Bayesian Analysis

China's real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks...

The Sectoral Effects of Real Depreciations in Latin America

New
The Sectoral Effects of Real Depreciations in Latin America »

Volume/Issue: 2017/249

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sergi Lanau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328477.001

ISBN: 9781484328477

Keywords: real exchange rate; depreciation; exports; imports; growth, real exchange rate, depreciation, exports, imports, growth, Country and Industry Studies of Trade

This papers explores the effects of real exchange rate depreciations on growth across sectors, identifying export, cost, and import-penetration channels. It tests the existence and magnitude of these channels in a...

LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics

New
LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 2017/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Geoffrey Bannister , Manuk Ghazanchyan , and Theodore Bikoi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325742.001

ISBN: 9781484325742

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, External trade statictics, bilateral assymetries, trade partner data, imports and exports, customs data, General, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Asia including Middle East, Factor and Product Markets

This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports...

How Should Shale Gas Extraction Be Taxed?

New
How Should Shale Gas Extraction Be Taxed? »

Volume/Issue: 2017/254

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philip Daniel , Alan Krupnick , Thornton Matheson , Peter Mullins , Ian Parry , and Artur Swistak

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328491.001

ISBN: 9781484328491

Keywords: shale gas; environmental risks; corrective taxes; liability; fiscal regime design; simulated projects; marginal effective tax rates, shale gas, environmental risks, corrective taxes, liability, fiscal regime design, simulated projects, marginal effective tax rates, Government Policy, Environmental Economics: Government Policy

This paper suggests that the environmental and commercial features of shale gas extraction do not warrant a significantly different fiscal regime than recommended for conventional gas. Fiscal policies may have a ro...

Does Import Competition Induce R&D Reallocation? Evidence from the U.S.

New
Does Import Competition Induce R&D Reallocation? Evidence from the U.S. »

Volume/Issue: 2017/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rui Xu , and Kaiji Gong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326008.001

ISBN: 9781484326008

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Asia and Pacific, United States, Chinese Import Competition, R&D Expenditures, Reallocation, R&D Expenditures, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Trade and Labor Market Interactions

We analyze the impact of rising import competition from China on U.S. innovative activities. Using Compustat data, we find that import competition induces R&D expenditures to be reallocated towards more productive...

Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications

New
Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2017/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valerie Cerra , and Sweta Saxena

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325759.001

ISBN: 9781484325759

Keywords: Development, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, booms, crises, recoveries, business cycle, output gap, growth, foreign reserves

All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual an...

Bank Capital and Lending: An Extended Framework and Evidence of Nonlinearity

New
Bank Capital and Lending: An Extended Framework and Evidence of Nonlinearity »

Volume/Issue: 2017/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mario Catalan , Alexander Hoffmaister , and Cicilia Anggadewi Harun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325995.001

ISBN: 9781484325995

Keywords: Financial crises, Indonesia, Asia and Pacific, Bank capital; Bank lending; Financial shocks; Transmission mechanisms, Bank capital, Bank lending, Financial shocks, Transmission mechanisms, Government Policy and Regulation, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper studies the transmission of bank capital shocks to loan supply in Indonesia. A series of theoretically founded dynamic panel data models are estimated and find nonlinear effects of capital on loan growth...

Taxing Telecommunications in Developing Countries

New
Taxing Telecommunications in Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2017/247

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thornton Matheson , and Patrick Petit

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324981.001

ISBN: 9781484324981

Keywords: Rent, Cell, cellular, phone, telecommunications, tax, regulation, excise, Business Taxes and Subsidies, Economics of Regulation

Developing countries apply numerous sector-specific taxes to telecommunications, whose buoyant revenues and formal enterprises provide a convenient 'tax handle'. This paper explores whether there is an economic rat...

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery

New
The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery »

Volume/Issue: 2017/242

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Aqib Aslam , Emine Boz , Eugenio Cerutti , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328279.001

ISBN: 9781484328279

Keywords: Globalization, Trade policy, International trade, Investment, General, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposi...

Hollowing Out: The Channels of Income Polarization in the United States

New
Hollowing Out: The Channels of Income Polarization in the United States »

Volume/Issue: 2017/244

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Rodrigo Mariscal , and Daniela Muhaj

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328293.001

ISBN: 9781484328293

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, JEL Classification Numbers: D31; D63; E21; E25 Keywords: Middle Class; Middle-Income Class; Income Polarization; Hollowing Out; Inequality, Middle Class, Middle-Income Class, Income Polarization, Hollowing Out, Inequality

Data show that middle-income households have continued moving down, and less so up, the income distribution in the United States since the 1970s-a phenomenon that is often referred to as the polarization or 'hollow...

Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak

New
Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak »

Volume/Issue: 2017/241

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Pietro Dallari , and Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328262.001

ISBN: 9781484328262

Keywords: Fiscal Spillovers; Bayesian Methods; Fiscal Multipliers, Panel VAR, Fiscal Spillovers, Bayesian Methods, Fiscal Multipliers, Bayesian Analysis, Models with Panel Data

We estimate a panel VAR model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries using quarterly data for the period 1999-2016. Our analysis suggests that fiscal spillovers are significan...

Fear Thy Neighbor: Spillovers from Economic Policy Uncertainty

New
Fear Thy Neighbor: Spillovers from Economic Policy Uncertainty »

Volume/Issue: 2017/240

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nina Biljanovska , Francesco Grigoli , and Martina Hengge

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325032.001

ISBN: 9781484325032

Keywords: Private consumption, Private investment, Europe, China, United States, Economic policy uncertainty, spillover, General, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

High levels of economic policy uncertainty in various parts of the world revamped the de- bate about its impact on economic activity. With increasingly stronger economic, financial, and political ties among countri...

Enforcing Public-Private Partnership Contract: How do Fiscal Institutions Matter?

New
Enforcing Public-Private Partnership Contract: How do Fiscal Institutions Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2017/243

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manabu Nose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328286.001

ISBN: 9781484328286

Keywords: Fiscal risk, Public-private partnerships, adverse selection, public investment management, propensity score matching, Infrastructures, General

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have increased rapidly in emerging and developing countries, creating both opportunities and fiscal challenges. One of the main challenges is that while governments have increased...

Basel III and Bank-Lending: Evidence from the United States and Europe

New
Basel III and Bank-Lending: Evidence from the United States and Europe »

Volume/Issue: 2017/245

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sami Ben Naceur , and Caroline Roulet

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484328309.001

ISBN: 9781484328309

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, lending supply, bank regulatory capital, liquidity requirements, banking regulation, Government Policy and Regulation

Using data on commercial banks in the United States and Europe, this paper analyses the impact of the new Basel III capital and liquidity regulation on bank-lending following the 2008 financial crisis. We find that...

Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues

New
Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/246

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anastasia Guscina , Sheheryar Malik , and Michael Papaioannou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324936.001

ISBN: 9781484324936

Keywords: Market Access, Sovereign Debt Restructuring; Default; Bond Spreads, Sovereign Debt Restructuring, Default, Bond Spreads, Assessing Loss of Market Access:

Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA lea...

Regional Economic Outlook, November 2017, Europe
			: Europe Hitting Its Stride

New
Regional Economic Outlook, November 2017, Europe : Europe Hitting Its Stride »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484319611.086

ISBN: 9781484319611

Keywords: Europe, Regional Economic Outlook, growth, European recovery, nonperforming loans, European Union, Western Balkans

The European recovery is strengthening and broadening appreciably. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2017, up from 1.7 percent in 2016, before easing to 2.1 percent in 2018. These are large upward revi...

Unconventional Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics

New
Unconventional Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics »

Volume/Issue: 2017/237

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gustavo Adler , Ruy Lama , and Juan Medina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324844.001

ISBN: 9781484324844

Keywords: Foreign exchange intervention, Quantitative Easing, International Policy Coordination, International Policy, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, International Business Cycles

We study exchange rate dynamics under cooperative and self-oriented policies in a two-country DSGE model with unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. The cooperative solution features a large exchange r...

Potential Growth in Colombia

New
Potential Growth in Colombia »

Volume/Issue: 2017/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sergi Lanau , Jorge Roldos , and Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324929.001

ISBN: 9781484324929

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Colombia, Potential output, Potential output; Colombia; Investment, Investment, General, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of curr...

Global Trade and the Dollar

New
Global Trade and the Dollar »

Volume/Issue: 2017/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emine Boz , Gita Gopinath , and Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327975.001

ISBN: 9781484327975

Keywords: Bilateral trade, Foreign exchange, Bayesian semiparametrics, dominant currency, exchange rate passthrough, hierarchical Bayes, panel data, trade elasticity, US dollar, exchange rate pass-through

We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the fo...

Spain
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Risk Oversight Framework and Macroprudential Policy

New
Spain : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Risk Oversight Framework and Macroprudential Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2017/336

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327050.002

ISBN: 9781484327050

Keywords: Europe, Spain

Macroprudential oversight for banking is a shared responsibility between Banco de España (BdE) and the European Central Bank (ECB). BdE is the national competent and designated authority for exercising macroprudent...

Spain
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Supervision of Spanish Banks

New
Spain : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Supervision of Spanish Banks »

Volume/Issue: 2017/345

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327241.002

ISBN: 9781484327241

Keywords: Spain, Europe

Banking regulation and supervision of Spanish banks has improved considerably since the 2012 FSAP. Swift and determined action addressed the major weaknesses that led to the accumulation of imbalances in the bankin...

Spain
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Stress Testing Banking System Resilience

New
Spain : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Stress Testing Banking System Resilience »

Volume/Issue: 2017/342

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327197.002

ISBN: 9781484327197

Keywords: Europe, Spain

Low profitability and large exposure to fixed income securities are the key vulnerabilities of the Spanish banking sector. FSAP stress test results indicate that some banks may have difficulty enduring additional p...

Spain
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Interconnectedness and Spillover Analysis in Spain's Financial System

New
Spain : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Interconnectedness and Spillover Analysis in Spain's Financial System »

Volume/Issue: 2017/344

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327227.002

ISBN: 9781484327227

Keywords: Europe, Spain

The significant international presence of Spanish banks provides welcome diversification effects but may also have significant implications for inward and outward spillovers. The share of financial assets abroad ha...

Spain
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance Sector Supervision and Regulation

New
Spain : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance Sector Supervision and Regulation »

Volume/Issue: 2017/338

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327104.002

ISBN: 9781484327104

Keywords: Europe, Spain

This Technical Note (TN) provides an update on the Spanish insurance sector and an analysis of certain key aspects of the regulatory and supervisory regime. This FSAP is most supportive of the government's announce...

Spain
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Institutional Arrangements for Financial Sector Oversight

New
Spain : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Institutional Arrangements for Financial Sector Oversight »

Volume/Issue: 2017/337

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327074.002

ISBN: 9781484327074

Keywords: Spain, Europe

As Spain recovers from the 2012 banking crisis, attention is being placed on the appropriateness of the institutional framework for financial sector oversight. The complex and relatively fragmented set up has two m...

Spain
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insolvency and Creditor Rights

New
Spain : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insolvency and Creditor Rights »

Volume/Issue: 2017/340

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327166.002

ISBN: 9781484327166

Keywords: Spain, Europe

This technical note analyzes selected issues related to four areas of the legal system for insolvency and creditor rights with a particular relevance for financial stability and the resolution of legacy assets. The...

Spain
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Impaired Assets and Nonperforming Loans

New
Spain : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Impaired Assets and Nonperforming Loans »

Volume/Issue: 2017/343

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327210.002

ISBN: 9781484327210

Keywords: Spain, Europe

The Spanish banking sector underwent significant consolidation in the last five years and made material progress in reducing and provisioning its problem assets.2 For consolidated operations, the nonperforming loan...

Spain
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Determinants of Bank Profitability

New
Spain : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Determinants of Bank Profitability »

Volume/Issue: 2017/339

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327159.002

ISBN: 9781484327159

Keywords: Europe, Spain

While system-wide profitability for Spanish banks has recovered gradually since the crisis, the return on equity remains below the cost of capital (Bank of Spain May 2016 FSR).2 Profitability remains higher for Spa...

Spain
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Bank Resolution and Crisis Management Frameworks

New
Spain : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Bank Resolution and Crisis Management Frameworks »

Volume/Issue: 2017/341

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327180.002

ISBN: 9781484327180

Keywords: Europe, Spain

The transposition of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) into Spanish law strengthened the resolution regime in Spain.1 Resolution powers in the past depended on the combination of public support, an...

Mexico
			: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes

New
Mexico : Selected Issues and Analytical Notes »

Volume/Issue: 2017/347

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327647.002

ISBN: 9781484327647

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Mexico

Selected Issues and Analytical Notes...

Mexico
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

New
Mexico : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/346

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327586.002

ISBN: 9781484327586

Keywords: Mexico, Western Hemisphere

The Mexican economy has exhibited resilience in the face of a complex external environment. However, the country still faces significant challenges, namely to preserve macro-economic stability, and foster stronger...

Philippines
			: Selected Issues

Philippines : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/335

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326862.002

ISBN: 9781484326862

Keywords: Philippines, Asia and Pacific

Selected Issues...

Philippines
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report

Philippines : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/334

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326831.002

ISBN: 9781484326831

Keywords: Philippines, Asia and Pacific

The Philippine economy has performed well and is in a favorable position to address its socioeconomic challenges. Sound policies have delivered solid growth, low inflation, financial stability, and external and fis...

Ireland
			: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment

Ireland : Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment »

Volume/Issue: 2017/333

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326657.002

ISBN: 9781484326657

Keywords: Europe, Ireland

This Technical Assistance Report presents a public investment management assessment (PIMA) in Ireland. Improving public investment would enable Ireland to bring the efficiency of its infrastructure closer to the fr...

Armenia
			: Technical Assistance Report-Upgrading Fiscal Rules

Armenia : Technical Assistance Report-Upgrading Fiscal Rules »

Volume/Issue: 2017/330

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325551.002

ISBN: 9781484325551

Keywords: Armenia, Middle East

Armenia has made significant strides in enhancing macroeconomic stability over the past two decades. This has recently come under strain. Before a full recovery from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) could take roo...

Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide

Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide »

Series: Manuals & Guides

Author(s): Jose Cartas , and Artak Harutyunyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513579191.069

ISBN: 9781513579191

Keywords: Financial statistics, Monetary statistics, Technical Notes and Manuals, manual and compilation guide

This edition of Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (Manual) updates and merges into one volume methodological and practical aspects of the compilation process of monetary statistics. The...

IMF Research Bulletin, Fall 2017

IMF Research Bulletin, Fall 2017 »

Volume/Issue: 18/3

Series: IMF Research Bulletin

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484327234.026

ISBN: 9781484327234

Keywords: Agriculture, Globalization, Credit, Central bank issues, Credit markets, Farm development, central bank, quantitative easing, balance sheet adjustment, lending

The Fall 2017 IMF Research Bulletin includes a Q&A article covering "Seven Questions on the Globalization of Farmland" by Christian Bogmans. The first research summary, by Manmohan Singh and Haobing Wang is "Centra...

Inequality in Financial Inclusion and Income Inequality

Inequality in Financial Inclusion and Income Inequality »

Volume/Issue: 2017/236

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Goksu Aslan , Corinne Deléchat , Monique Newiak , and Fan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324905.001

ISBN: 9781484324905

Keywords: Income inequality, Financial inclusion, Sub-Saharan Africa, financial development, gender inequality, Other, Economics of Gender, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

We investigate the link between gender inequality in financial inclusion and income inequality, with three contributions to the recent literature. First, using a micro-dataset covering 146,000 individuals in over 1...

The Macro-Fiscal Aftermath of Weather-Related Disasters: Do Loss Dimensions Matter?

The Macro-Fiscal Aftermath of Weather-Related Disasters: Do Loss Dimensions Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2017/235

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kerstin Gerling

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326633.001

ISBN: 9781484326633

Keywords: JEL Classification Numbers: Q54; E62; O11; O44; H84 Keywords: weather-related natural disasters; climate change; growth; fiscal policy

Weather-related natural disasters and climate change pose interrelated macro-fiscal challenges. Using panel-VARX studies for a sample of 19 countries in Developing Asia during 1970 to 2015, this paper contributes n...

Trends and Challenges in Infrastructure Investment in Low-Income Developing Countries

Trends and Challenges in Infrastructure Investment in Low-Income Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2017/233

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Gurara , Vladimir Klyuev , Nkunde Mwase , Andrea Presbitero , Xin Cindy Xu , and Geoffrey Bannister

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324837.001

ISBN: 9781484324837

Keywords: Infrastructure; Public Investment; Public-Private Partnerships; Developing Countries, Infrastructure, Public Investment, Public-Private Partnerships, Developing Countries, General, Regional, Urban, and Rural Analyses

This paper examines trends in infrastructure investment and its financing in low-income developing countries (LIDCs). Following an acceleration of public investment over the last 15 years, the stock of infrastructu...

Trade and Income in the Long Run: Are There Really Gains, and Are They Widely Shared?

Trade and Income in the Long Run: Are There Really Gains, and Are They Widely Shared? »

Volume/Issue: 2017/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Diego Cerdeiro , and Andras Komaromi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324851.001

ISBN: 9781484324851

Keywords: Income, Trade, Growth, Inequality, Gravity model, General

In the cross section of countries, there is a strong positive correlation between trade and income, and a negative relationship between trade and inequality. Does this reflect a causal relationship? We adopt the Fr...

The Global Banking Network in the Aftermath of the Crisis: Is There Evidence of De-globalization?

The Global Banking Network in the Aftermath of the Crisis: Is There Evidence of De-globalization? »

Volume/Issue: 2017/232

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , and Haonan Zhou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324868.001

ISBN: 9781484324868

Keywords: International financial markets, Cross-border Lending, Banking Network, Financial Interconnectedness, International Lending and Debt Problems, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Other

Post-crisis dynamics show a shrinkage in the overall amount of crossborder bank lending, which has been interpreted in the literature as a retreat in financial globalization. In this paper, we argue that aggregate...

The Granular Origins of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Europe

The Granular Origins of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Europe »

Volume/Issue: 2017/229

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Ebeke , and Kodjovi Eklou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324806.001

ISBN: 9781484324806

Keywords: Idiosyncratic shocks; Aggregate fluctuations, SMEs; Balance Sheets, Idiosyncratic shocks, Aggregate fluctuations, SMEs, Balance Sheets, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations in Europe. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (the granular shocks) in explaining aggre...

Problem Loans in the Caribbean: Determinants, Impact and Strategies for Resolution

Problem Loans in the Caribbean: Determinants, Impact and Strategies for Resolution »

Volume/Issue: 2017/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kimberly Beaton , Thomas Dowling , Dmitriy Kovtun , Franz Loyola , Alla Myrvoda , Joel Chiedu Okwuokei , Inci Ötker , and Jarkko Turunen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326572.001

ISBN: 9781484326572

Keywords: Trinidad and Tobago, Western Hemisphere, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica

The high level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the Caribbean has been, in large part, a legacy of the global financial crisis, but their persistence owes much to the weak economic recovery in the region, as well a...

Bank Lending in the Knowledge Economy

Bank Lending in the Knowledge Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2017/234

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , Dalida Kadyrzhanova , Camelia Minoiu , and Lev Ratnovski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324899.001

ISBN: 9781484324899

Keywords: Intangible capital, bank lending, commercial loans, real estate loans, liquid assets, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Government Policy and Regulation

We study bank portfolio allocations during the transition of the real sector to a knowledge economy in which firms use less tangible capital and invest more in intangible assets. We show that, as firms shift toward...

A Generalized Framework for the Assessment of Household Financial Vulnerability

A Generalized Framework for the Assessment of Household Financial Vulnerability »

Volume/Issue: 2017/228

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mindaugas Leika , and Daniela Marchettini

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484322352.001

ISBN: 9781484322352

Keywords: Credit risk, Sensitivity analysis, household, stress test, microdata, non–;parametric methods, non-parametric methods, Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

Household financial fragility has received considerable attention following the global financial crisis, but substantial gaps remain in the analytical underpinnings of household financial vulnerability assessment,...

World Economic Outlook, April 2017
			: Gaining Momentum?

World Economic Outlook, April 2017 : Gaining Momentum? »

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 November 2017

Language: French

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475597172.081

ISBN: 9781475597172

Keywords: National income, Gross domestric product growth, Growth acceleration, Growth deceleration, Income inequality, Distribution of income, External activities, World Economic Outlook, Output growth, Investment

Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1...

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2017/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Florian Misch , Brian Olden , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Lamya Kejji

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325933.001

ISBN: 9781484325933

Keywords: Fiscal policy, JEL Classification Numbers: E01, E32, H68 Keywords: Nowcashing, Real-time data, Nowcasting, Nowcashing, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

Traditionally, fiscal data for policy analysis are derived from official reports that, depending on the country, are published either monthly, quarterly or annually, often with significant time lags. However, innov...

Malawi
			: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Fundamental Controls and Reporting

Malawi : Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Fundamental Controls and Reporting »

Volume/Issue: 2017/332

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325773.002

ISBN: 9781484325773

Keywords: Malawi, Sub-Saharan Africa

The government is determined to restore control over public funds. The Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) of the IMF had identified in 2014 the lack of effective bank reconciliations as a major impediment to achieving...

Jamaica
			: Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jamaica

Jamaica : Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jamaica »

Volume/Issue: 2017/329

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325513.002

ISBN: 9781484325513

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Jamaica

Sustained signs of activity but growth remains vulnerable to weather. Unemployment is falling, new jobs are being created, and there is robust activity in construction, manufacturing, and hotels and restaurants. In...

Digital Revolutions in Public Finance

Digital Revolutions in Public Finance »

Series: Books

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484315224.071

ISBN: 9781484315224

Keywords: Information technology, Public finance, digitization, digital age, tax administration, social programs

Digitization promises to reshape fiscal policy by transforming how governments collect, process, share, and act on information. More and higher-quality information can improve not only policy design for tax and spe...

Liquidity Stress Tests for Investment Funds: A Practical Guide

Liquidity Stress Tests for Investment Funds: A Practical Guide »

Volume/Issue: 2017/226

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antoine Bouveret

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324783.001

ISBN: 9781484324783

Keywords: Liquidity, stress test, investment funds, redemption, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Asset Pricing

This paper outlines a framework to perform liquidity stress tests for investment funds. Practical aspects related to the calibration of the redemption shock, the measurement of liquidity buffers and the assessment...

International Financial Integration and Funding Risks: Bank-Level Evidence from Latin America

International Financial Integration and Funding Risks: Bank-Level Evidence from Latin America »

Volume/Issue: 2017/224

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Catão , Valeriya Dinger , and Daniel Marcel te Kaat

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324769.001

ISBN: 9781484324769

Keywords: Bank Capital Structure, Financial Liberalization, International Capital Flows, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

Using a sample of over 700 banks in Latin America, we show that international financial liberalization lowers bank capital ratios and increases the shares of short-term funding. Following liberalization, large bank...

Inequality in Brazil: A Regional Perspective

Inequality in Brazil: A Regional Perspective »

Volume/Issue: 2017/225

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlos Góes , and Izabela Karpowicz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324776.001

ISBN: 9781484324776

Keywords: Income inequality, Government expenditures and education, Government expenditures and welfare programs, Western Hemisphere, Brazil, redistribution policies, Models with Panel Data, Personal Income and Wealth Distribution, Equity, Justice

In this study, we document the decline in income inequality and a convergence in consumption patterns in Brazilian states in a new database constructed from micro data from the national households' survey. We adjus...

State-Owned Enterprises in Emerging Europe: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

State-Owned Enterprises in Emerging Europe: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly »

Volume/Issue: 2017/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Uwe Böwer

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484315163.001

ISBN: 9781484315163

Keywords: State-Owned Enterprises, Emerging Europe, Emerging Europe Author&;amp;#x2019;s, Government Policy and Regulation

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play an important role in Emerging Europe's economies, notably in the energy and transport sectors. Based on a new firm-level dataset, this paper reviews the SOE landscape, assesses S...

Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty

Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty »

Volume/Issue: 2017/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ezgi Ozturk , and Xuguang Simon Sheng

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484316597.001

ISBN: 9781484316597

Keywords: Capital Asset Pricing Model; Common Uncertainty; Consensus Forecasts; Idiosyncratic Uncertainty; Global Uncertainty; Survey Forecast, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Common Uncertainty, Consensus Forecasts, Idiosyncratic Uncertainty, Global Uncertainty, Survey Forecast

Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Foreca...

How Financial Conditions Matter Differently across Latin America

How Financial Conditions Matter Differently across Latin America »

Volume/Issue: 2017/218

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Brandao-Marques , and Esther Perez Ruiz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325506.001

ISBN: 9781484325506

Keywords: Financial conditions indexes, TVP-FAVAR, financial spillovers, Forecasting and Simulation, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General

This paper develops comparable financial conditions indices (FCIs) for the six large and most financially-integrated Latin American economies (LA6) by following Korobilis (2013) and Koop and Korobilis (2014). The m...

Global Liquidity Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, and Their Policy Responses

Global Liquidity Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, and Their Policy Responses »

Volume/Issue: 2017/222

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Woon Choi , Taesu Kang , Geun-Young Kim , and Byongju Lee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325216.001

ISBN: 9781484325216

Keywords: Global liquidity, Inflation targeting, Panel Factor-Augmented VAR, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

This paper distills and identifies global liquidity (GL) momenta from the macro-financial data of advanced economies through a factor model with sign restrictions as policy-driven, market-driven, and risk aversenes...

Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance

Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance »

Volume/Issue: 2017/220

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Henry Mooney , and Constance de Soyres

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324790.001

ISBN: 9781484324790

Keywords: Balance of payments, Debt relief, IMF, Sovereign debt, World Bank, debt sustainability analysis (DSA), macroeconomic forecast, projection accuracy, projection bias, forecast error

This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism f...

Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States

Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States »

Volume/Issue: 2017/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ricardo Marto , Chris Papageorgiou , and Vladimir Klyuev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324745.001

ISBN: 9781484324745

Keywords: Debt sustainability, Disaster aid, Foreign aid, Natural Disastes, Resilience, Adaptation, Small States, International Lending and Debt Problems, Infrastructures, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

We present a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters. In addition to permanent damages to public and private capital, the disaster causes temporary losses of produc...

Mauritius
			: Technical Assistance Report-Towards Accrual Accounting and the Adoption of International Standards

Mauritius : Technical Assistance Report-Towards Accrual Accounting and the Adoption of International Standards »

Volume/Issue: 2017/326

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325285.002

ISBN: 9781484325285

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Mauritius

The authorities have decided to improve public financial management by implementing an accrual accounting framework consistent with internationally accepted standards. The mission was asked to advise specifically o...

Zambia
			: Selected Issues

Zambia : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/328

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325377.002

ISBN: 9781484325377

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia

Selected Issues...

Zambia
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zambia

Zambia : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zambia »

Volume/Issue: 2017/327

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325339.002

ISBN: 9781484325339

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia

The Zambian economy has started recovering from a marked slowdown in growth. In 2015Q4 and most of 2016, it was in near-crisis, reflecting the impacts of exogenous shocks and lax fiscal policy in the lead up to gen...

Unfinished Business
			: The Unexplored Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Lessons Yet to be Learned

Unfinished Business : The Unexplored Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Lessons Yet to be Learned »

Series: Books

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi

Publisher: Yale University Press

Publication Date: 24 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9780300225631.071

ISBN: 9780300225631

There have been numerous books examining the 2008 financial crisis from either a U.S. or European perspective. Tamim Bayoumi is the first to explain how the Euro crisis and U.S. housing crash were, in fact, parasit...

Mongolia
			: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Prices Statistics Mission

Mongolia : Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Prices Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2017/323

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324592.002

ISBN: 9781484324592

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Mongolia

In response to a request from the National Statistics Office of Mongolia (NSOM), a technical assistance mission visited Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia during April 17-28, 2017, to provide assistance with updating and improv...

The Macroeconomic (and Distributional) Effects of Public Investment in Developing Economies

The Macroeconomic (and Distributional) Effects of Public Investment in Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2017/217

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Davide Furceri , and Bin Grace Li

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484320709.001

ISBN: 9781484320709

Keywords: Fiscal policy, Public investment, Growth, Inequality, Demand and Supply, Energy and the Macroeconomy, Government Policy

This paper provides new empirical evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in developing economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify unanticipated changes in public investment,...

Uganda
			: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Monetary and Financial Statistics Mission

Uganda : Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Monetary and Financial Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2017/303

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484322222.002

ISBN: 9781484322222

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda

A monetary and financial statistics (MFS) mission from the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) Statistics Department (STA) visited Kampala during January 12-22, 2015. The mission focused on reviewing and mapping...

Cambodia
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cambodia

Cambodia : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cambodia »

Volume/Issue: 2017/325

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325094.002

ISBN: 9781484325094

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Cambodia

Cambodia continues to grow at an impressive pace. Looking ahead, the outlook is positive, although there are near-term downside risks. Financial sector vulnerabilities stemming from rapid financial deepening remain...

Montenegro
			: Technical Assistance Report-Macroprudential Policy Framework

Montenegro : Technical Assistance Report-Macroprudential Policy Framework »

Volume/Issue: 2017/322

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324530.002

ISBN: 9781484324530

Keywords: Europe, Montenegro

Montenegro faces a number of important country-specific factors in its work towards establishing a macroprudential policy framework. First, its small size and short history as a sovereign state limit the availabili...

Islamic Republic of Mauritania
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Islamic Republic of Mauritania

Islamic Republic of Mauritania : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Islamic Republic of Mauritania »

Volume/Issue: 2017/324

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324660.002

ISBN: 9781484324660

Keywords: Mauritania, Middle East

Mauritania continues to face a challenging external environment with low and volatile metal prices. A steep decline in iron ore prices in 2014-15 took away half of exports, widened the fiscal deficit, put pressure...

Excerpt: Digital Revolutions in Public Finance

Excerpt: Digital Revolutions in Public Finance »

Series: Miscellaneous Publication (Other)

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484323823.073

ISBN: 9781484323823

This is an excerpt from Digital Revolutions in Public Finance. Digital copies are available for free download. This book fills a gap in the current research by reviewing the new opportunities and challenges present...

IMF Financial Operations 2016

IMF Financial Operations 2016 »

Series: Books

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2017

Language: Spanish

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484319635.071

ISBN: 9781484319635

Keywords: interest, lending, debt, reserve, income

IMF Financial Operations 2016 provides a broad introduction to how the IMF fulfills its mission through its financial activities. It covers the financial structure and operations of the IMF and also provides backgr...

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017
			: Is Growth at Risk?

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017 : Is Growth at Risk? »

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484308394.082

ISBN: 9781484308394

Keywords: Debt, Economic growth, Financial risk, Financial stability, Global Financial Stability Report, Debt and growth, Global Financial Stability Risks, growth at risk, stability, household debt

The October 2017 Global Financial Stability Report finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in gro...

Fiscal Monitor, October 2017
			: Tackling Inequality

Fiscal Monitor, October 2017 : Tackling Inequality »

Series: Fiscal Monitor

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484312483.089

ISBN: 9781484312483

Keywords: Income inequality, Tax rates, Fiscal policy, inequality, fiscal redistribution, tax progressivity, universal basic income, education, health

At the global level, inequality has declined substantially over the past three decades, but within national boundaries, the picture is mixed: some countries have experienced a reduction in inequality while others,...

World Economic Outlook, October 2017
			: Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges

World Economic Outlook, October 2017 : Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges »

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484312490.081

ISBN: 9781484312490

Keywords: World Economic Outlook, Economic growth, Production growth, Gross domestric product growth, Growth acceleration, Climate policy, Climate changes, Climate changing activities, Wage increases, Wage policy

The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening. Global growth, which in 2016 was the weakest since the global financial crisis at 3.2 percent, is projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.7 percen...

Per Jacobsson Lecture
			: Are We Safer? The Case for Strengthening the Bagehot Arsenal

Per Jacobsson Lecture : Are We Safer? The Case for Strengthening the Bagehot Arsenal »

Series: Other Periodicals

Author(s): Timothy Geithner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484313855.029

ISBN: 9781484313855

Keywords: Global financial crisis, 2008-2009, Keynesian economics, Systemic crisis management, Risk management, Capital controls, Crisis prevention, Financial systems, crisis management, capital requirements, risk

The choices we make in advance of the next financial crisis will have a major impact in determining the magnitude of the economic damage. Our vulnerability to crisis depends on the strength of the protections we bu...

Uganda
			: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Sectoral Financial Accounts Mission

Uganda : Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Sectoral Financial Accounts Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2017/299

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484321799.002

ISBN: 9781484321799

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda

In response to a request from the Bank of Uganda (BOU) and in consultation with the African Department of the IMF, a mission visited Kampala, Uganda during March 7-11, 2016, to provide technical assistance (TA) on...

Uganda
			: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Quarterly National Accounts Statistics Mission

Uganda : Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Quarterly National Accounts Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2017/297

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484321492.002

ISBN: 9781484321492

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda

The Ugandan Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) is responsible for producing national accounts statistics (NAS). Estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) by economic activity and expenditure share are compiled on an annua...

Uganda
			: Technical Assistance Report-Technical Assistance Report-Report on the National Accounts Statistics Mission

Uganda : Technical Assistance Report-Technical Assistance Report-Report on the National Accounts Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2017/294

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484321430.002

ISBN: 9781484321430

Keywords: Uganda, Sub-Saharan Africa

In response to a request from the Ugandan authorities and in consultation with the African Department (AFR), I undertook a technical assistance (TA) mission to Kampala during July 23-August 04, 2015 to assist with...

Uganda
			: Report on the Prices Statistics Mission

Uganda : Report on the Prices Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2017/295

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484321447.002

ISBN: 9781484321447

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda

Important aspects for the mission to address included the following: (i) review of the rebased PPI compilation methodology; (ii) assessment of the PPI series and the prices data collected and development of a disse...

Uganda
			: Report on the Prices Statistics Mission

Uganda : Report on the Prices Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2017/296

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484321461.002

ISBN: 9781484321461

Keywords: Uganda, Sub-Saharan Africa

Compared to the current CPI, the main improvements planned for the rebased CPI include: (i) increasing the geographical coverage by adding Fort Portal as an additional price collection center located in the Western...

Uganda
			: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Prices Statistics Mission

Uganda : Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Prices Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2017/301

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484321973.002

ISBN: 9781484321973

Keywords: Uganda, Sub-Saharan Africa

In response to a request from the authorities at the Uganda Bureau of Statistics and in consultation with the IMF's African Department, I undertook a technical assistance mission to Kampala during the period May 4-...

Uganda
			: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Prices Statistics Mission

Uganda : Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Prices Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2017/302

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484321997.002

ISBN: 9781484321997

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda

The mission objectives included: (i) review and finalize the structure and weighting pattern of the export-import price indexes (XMPI) and the hotels and restaurants Producer Price Index (H&R-PPI); (ii) review prog...

Uganda
			: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the National Accounts Statistics Mission

Uganda : Technical Assistance Report-Report on the National Accounts Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2017/300

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484321867.002

ISBN: 9781484321867

Keywords: Uganda, Sub-Saharan Africa

In response to a request from the Ugandan authorities and in consultation with the African Department (AFR), I undertook a technical assistance (TA) mission to Kampala during January 18-29, 2016 to assist with the...