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Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018, Europe

Managing the Upswing in Uncertain Times

The Spring EUR REO projects the economic outlook for the region for the next six months.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department

Seizing the Momentum

The Spring 2018 WHD REO projects the economic outlook for the region over the next six months.

Switzerland
			: Selected Issues

New
Switzerland : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/174

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484362174.002

ISBN: 9781484362174

Selected Issues...

Switzerland
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland

New
Switzerland : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland »

Volume/Issue: 2018/173

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484362167.002

ISBN: 9781484362167

The economy has adjusted to the large cumulative exchange rate appreciation that took place since the global financial crisis. Growth is expected to reach 21/4 percent this year and to stabilize around 1¾ percent o...

Liberia
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia

New
Liberia : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia »

Volume/Issue: 2018/172

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484362006.002

ISBN: 9781484362006

A new government is in place, with a mandate to achieve ambitious development objectives. Liberia's economy appears poised for recovery, as growth bottomed out in 2016 and edged to 2.5 percent in 2017. However, Lib...

Mauritius
			: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Bank Resolution and Crisis Management Framework

New
Mauritius : Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Bank Resolution and Crisis Management Framework »

Volume/Issue: 2018/170

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361825.002

ISBN: 9781484361825

The Mauritius authorities have indicated their interest in formalizing and making the resolution and crisis management framework more efficient. Following extensive TA provided by Fund staff on bank resolution and...

Algeria
			: Selected Issues

New
Algeria : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/169

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361764.002

ISBN: 9781484361764

Selected Issues...

Algeria
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Algeria

New
Algeria : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Algeria »

Volume/Issue: 2018/168

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361702.002

ISBN: 9781484361702

To adjust to lower oil prices since 2014, Algeria initially relied solely on exchange rate policy before putting most of the burden on fiscal consolidation. In parallel, the government initiated several structural...

Tunisia
			: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility, and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing of Access

New
Tunisia : 2017 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility, and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing of Access »

Volume/Issue: 2018/120

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484355442.002

ISBN: 9781484355442

A consumption-led, timid recovery has increased macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Growth almost doubled to 1.9 percent in 2017, but record fiscal spending and strong credit growth, combined with dinar depreciation, pu...

Niger
			: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Niger

New
Niger : Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Niger »

Volume/Issue: 2018/166

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361030.002

ISBN: 9781484361030

With one of the lowest scores in the Human Development Index, Niger is facing daunting development challenges, exacerbated by security concerns from terrorist incursions, low prices for key uranium exports, climate...

Angola
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola

New
Angola : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola »

Volume/Issue: 2018/156

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484360194.002

ISBN: 9781484360194

Keywords: Angola, Sub-Saharan Africa

Lower oil prices since 2014 placed the Angolan economy under stress. The authorities initially reacted to the oil price shock with significant fiscal tightening and exchange rate adjustments coupled with foreign ex...

How Public Investment Could Help Strengthen Iran's Growth Potential: Issues and Options

New
How Public Investment Could Help Strengthen Iran's Growth Potential: Issues and Options »

Volume/Issue: 2018/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amir Sadeghi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484345139.001

ISBN: 9781484345139

Keywords: Public Investment; Growth; Oil Revenue; Investment Efficiency; Iran

Public investment is key to growth in developing oil-exporting countries and oil revenue is an important source of finance for public investment. Assessing the growth impact of public investment in Iran under vario...

Romania
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Calibration of a Debt-Service-to-Income Limit in Romania-Evidence from Microdata

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Romania : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Calibration of a Debt-Service-to-Income Limit in Romania-Evidence from Microdata »

Volume/Issue: 2018/161

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484360682.002

ISBN: 9781484360682

Keywords: Europe, Romania

The recent pick-up in household credit in Romania has given rise to a need for revisiting the design of existing macroprudential tools addressing household vulnerabilities. After a period of contraction followed by...

Romania
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Macroprudential Policy Framework and Tools

New
Romania : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Macroprudential Policy Framework and Tools »

Volume/Issue: 2018/164

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484360736.002

ISBN: 9781484360736

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) has a long experience in implementing macroprudential policy measures and as a result, a relatively sophisticated systemic risk monitoring framework. The NBR monitors several indi...

Romania
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Balance Sheet Analysis

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Romania : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Balance Sheet Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2018/162

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484360699.002

ISBN: 9781484360699

Keywords: Europe, Romania

This note analyzes macro-financial interlinkages, sectoral dependencies, and potential balance sheet vulnerabilities for all resident sectors. The mission used the sectoral balance sheets compiled by the National B...

Romania
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program

New
Romania : Financial Sector Assessment Program »

Volume/Issue: 2018/160

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484360446.002

ISBN: 9781484360446

Keywords: Romania, Europe

Romania's financial sector has strengthened significantly over the last few years. Effective supervisory measures have helped reduce the high level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) from 21.9 percent at its peak in 20...

Guatemala
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guatemala

New
Guatemala : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guatemala »

Volume/Issue: 2018/154

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484360071.002

ISBN: 9781484360071

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Guatemala

Near-term growth prospects remain constrained by low levels of government spending and subdued private sector sentiment. Key reforms that could strengthen medium term prospects are likely to be held back until afte...

Bangladesh
			: Selected Issues

New
Bangladesh : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/159

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484360347.002

ISBN: 9781484360347

Selected Issues...

Bangladesh
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bangladesh

New
Bangladesh : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bangladesh »

Volume/Issue: 2018/158

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484360323.002

ISBN: 9781484360323

The Bangladesh economy continues to perform well with robust and stable growth. Led by the ready-made garment sector, the economy has diversified away from an agrarian to a more manufacturing based economy with abu...

Angola
			: Selected Issues

New
Angola : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/157

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484360255.002

ISBN: 9781484360255

Selected Issues...

El Salvador
			: Selected Issues

New
El Salvador : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/152

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359792.002

ISBN: 9781484359792

Selected Issues...

El Salvador
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for El Salvador

New
El Salvador : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for El Salvador »

Volume/Issue: 2018/151

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359723.002

ISBN: 9781484359723

In recent years, El Salvador has suffered from low growth, high and rising public debt, political polarization, and sovereign financial strains. A downward revision of nominal GDP, due to the rebasing of the nation...

Colombia
			: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of Current Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report

New
Colombia : Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of Current Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/150

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359631.002

ISBN: 9781484359631

Colombia is near completion of a successful adjustment to large external shocks guided by its very strong economic policy framework and timely policy actions. The flexible exchange rate, combined with an inflation-...

Romania
			: Selected Issues

New
Romania : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/149

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359563.002

ISBN: 9781484359563

Selected Issues...

Romania
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania

New
Romania : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania »

Volume/Issue: 2018/148

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359495.002

ISBN: 9781484359495

Romania posted one of the highest growth rates in the EU in 2017, with record-low unemployment and an improving financial sector. Domestic consumption supported by fiscal stimulus led the strong growth, while inves...

Guinea- Bissau
			: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Extension and Augmentation of Access, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release and Staff Report

New
Guinea- Bissau : Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Extension and Augmentation of Access, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/147

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359235.002

ISBN: 9781484359235

Keywords: Guinea-Bissau, Sub-Saharan Africa

A fragile state, Guinea-Bissau has maintained robust growth at around 6 percent for the past three years despite a political crisis that led to multiple changes of government and absence of a functioning parliamen...

Cyprus
			: Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus

New
Cyprus : Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus »

Volume/Issue: 2018/153

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359839.002

ISBN: 9781484359839

The economic recovery has gathered further momentum. Strong GDP growth has supported employment. While the current account deficit has widened reflecting the high import content of demand, persistent price and wage...

The U.S. Personal Saving Rate

New
The U.S. Personal Saving Rate »

Volume/Issue: 2018/128

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sam Ouliaris , and Celine Rochon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357941.001

ISBN: 9781484357941

Keywords: consumption behavior, personal saving rate, vector error-correction model, structural break.

This paper develops a time series model for aggregate consumption to predict the U.S. personal saving rate. It then uses the model to test whether there has been a structural break in consumption behavior because o...

Thailand
			: Selected Issues

New
Thailand : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/144

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359174.002

ISBN: 9781484359174

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Thailand

Selected Issues...

Thailand
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand

New
Thailand : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand »

Volume/Issue: 2018/143

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359112.002

ISBN: 9781484359112

Keywords: Thailand, Asia and Pacific

A cyclical recovery is underway though it is yet to be broad-based. Domestic demand remains sluggish amid structural challenges, inflation continues to show weak dynamics, and the current account surplus remains la...

Samoa
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Samoa

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Samoa : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Samoa »

Volume/Issue: 2018/145

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359242.002

ISBN: 9781484359242

Keywords: Samoa, Asia and Pacific

Samoa has demonstrated resilience in the face of multiple external shocks. Growth remains robust, but is expected to temporarily moderate before rebounding. Inflation has picked up but remains below the authorities...

Republic of Equatorial Guinea
			: Staff-Monitored Program

New
Republic of Equatorial Guinea : Staff-Monitored Program »

Volume/Issue: 2018/146

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359303.002

ISBN: 9781484359303

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea

In 2014, like other CEMAC countries, Equatorial Guinea (EG) was hit hard by the plunge in oil prices. Since then, oil prices have partially recovered, but this has been offset by a rapid trend decline in hydrocarbo...

Labor Market Duality in Korea

New
Labor Market Duality in Korea »

Volume/Issue: 2018/126

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Johanna Schauer

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357934.001

ISBN: 9781484357934

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Korea, Republic of, Korea, Labor market duality, flexicurity, Labor Economics Policies, Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

Labor market duality is a complex and critical issue for many countries that can lower productivity, contribute to inequality and result in negative externalities. In this paper, I study duality in the Korean labor...

Georgia
			: Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing the Fiscal Rules

New
Georgia : Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing the Fiscal Rules »

Volume/Issue: 2018/132

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484358207.002

ISBN: 9781484358207

Georgia has legislated numerical fiscal rules for the main fiscal aggregates. The Economic Liberty Act (ELA), which was adopted in 2011 and came into force in 2014, defines numerical upper limits for the state debt...

Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria

New
Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria »

Volume/Issue: 2018/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maria Elkhdari , Moez Souissi , and Andrew Jewell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357972.001

ISBN: 9781484357972

Keywords: Algeria, Middle East, Fiscal policy; State-dependent multipliers; Output gap; Spending direction; Algeria; Structural Vector Autoregressive Model; Local Projection Methodology, Fiscal policy, State-dependent multipliers, Output gap, Spending direction, Structural Vector Autoregressive Model, Local Projection Methodology, Model Construction and Estimation

At a time when Algeria must undertake considerable fiscal consolidation to restore sustainability, the issue of fiscal multipliers has come to the fore. This paper estimates short-term and long-term fiscal multipli...

Effectiveness of Internal Audit and Oversight at Central Banks: Safeguards Findings - Trends and Observations

New
Effectiveness of Internal Audit and Oversight at Central Banks: Safeguards Findings - Trends and Observations »

Volume/Issue: 2018/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Elie Chamoun , and Riaan van Greuning

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357965.001

ISBN: 9781484357965

Keywords: Governance, Internal audit, central bank, audit committee, General

Experience under the safeguards policy has shown that central banks continued to strengthen their safeguards frameworks, but that vulnerabilities prevailed in the areas of internal audit and oversight by the audit...

Does Financial Tranquility Call for Stringent Regulation?

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Does Financial Tranquility Call for Stringent Regulation? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Deepal Basak , and Yunhui Zhao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357996.001

ISBN: 9781484357996

Keywords: Financial stability, Financial regulation, Learning, Externality, Macroprudential, General, Government Policy and Regulation

Consistent with the Minsky hypothesis and the 'volatility paradox' (Brunnermeier and Sannikov, 2014), recent empirical evidence suggests that financial crises tend to follow prolonged periods of financial stability...

Excerpt: Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential

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Excerpt: Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential »

Series: Miscellaneous Publication (Other)

Author(s): Regional Office for the Asia and the Pacific

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/DIEPEAEX.073

ISBN: DIEPEAEX

Keywords: Bank Indonesia, Indonesia

Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overvie...

On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism

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On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism »

Volume/Issue: 2018/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Beaudry , and Tim Willems

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354889.001

ISBN: 9781484354889

Keywords: Recessions, noise shocks, sentiment, forecasts

Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance o...

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
			: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report

New
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan : Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/127

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357576.002

ISBN: 9781484357576

Keywords: Middle East, Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of

The three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) was approved on July 20, 2016 in an amount of SDR 32.38 million (US$44.9 million, or 10 percent of quota). The first and second reviews under the...

Costa Rica
			: Technical Assistance Report-Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program-Tax Gap Analysis for General Sales and Corporate Income Tax

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Costa Rica : Technical Assistance Report-Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program-Tax Gap Analysis for General Sales and Corporate Income Tax »

Volume/Issue: 2018/124

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484356777.002

ISBN: 9781484356777

Keywords: Costa Rica, Western Hemisphere

This report presents the estimates of tax gaps for general sales tax (GST) and corporate income tax (CIT) in Costa Rica by applying the methodology of the IMF's RA-GAP (Revenue Administration - Gap Analysis Progra...

Colombia
			: Selected Issues

New
Colombia : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/129

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357743.002

ISBN: 9781484357743

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Colombia

Selected Issues...

Kingdom of the Netherlands - Netherlands
			: Selected Issues

New
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Netherlands : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/131

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357866.002

ISBN: 9781484357866

Keywords: Europe, Netherlands

Selected Issues...

Kingdom of the Netherlands - Netherlands
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands

New
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Netherlands : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands »

Volume/Issue: 2018/130

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357804.002

ISBN: 9781484357804

Keywords: Netherlands, Europe

Four years after exiting a double dip recession, the economic recovery has taken hold, driven by robust domestic demand against the backdrop of increasing house prices. Net exports have also proven resilient to glo...

Republic of Estonia
			: Selected Issues

Republic of Estonia : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/126

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357354.002

ISBN: 9781484357354

Keywords: Estonia, Europe

Selected Issues...

Republic of Estonia
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

Republic of Estonia : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/125

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357293.002

ISBN: 9781484357293

Keywords: Europe, Estonia

Estonia's economy is performing well, underpinned by prudent economic management, ongoing structural reforms, and strong institutions. Real economic activity has surprised on the upside, bringing output above poten...

Belize's 2016-17 Sovereign Debt Restructuring - Third Time Lucky?

Belize's 2016-17 Sovereign Debt Restructuring - Third Time Lucky? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/121

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamon Asonuma , Michael Papaioannou , Eriko Togo , and Bert van Selm

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357217.001

ISBN: 9781484357217

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, International financial markets, Belize, Sovereign Debt; Sovereign Defaults; Sovereign Debt Restructurings; Serial Debt Restructurings; Belize, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Defaults, Sovereign Debt Restructurings, Serial Debt Restructurings, International Lending and Debt Problems

This paper examines the causes, processes, and outcomes of Belize's 2016-17 sovereign debt restructuring-its third episode in last 10 years. As was the case in the earlier two restructurings, in 2006-07 and in 2012...

Australia's Linkages with China: Prospects and Ramifications of China's Economic Transition

Australia's Linkages with China: Prospects and Ramifications of China's Economic Transition »

Volume/Issue: 2018/119

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philippe Karam , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357200.001

ISBN: 9781484357200

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Australia, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium; open economy macoeconomics; small open economy; open economy simulation, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, open economy macoeconomics, small open economy, open economy simulation, Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

China and Australia have increasingly strong links, especially through trade. These are driven by demand from China for Australian commodities (coal and iron ore) and services (tourism and education). These links a...

A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies

A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2018/120

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesco Grigoli , Zsoka Koczan , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484355251.001

ISBN: 9781484355251

Keywords: Labor force participation, Advanced economies, age, cohort, population aging, simulations, Labor Economics: General, Economics of Gender, Labor Force and Employment, Size

Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously relative to the working-age population. Yet, despite the acceleration in demographic shifts in...

Should We Fear the Robot Revolution? (The Correct Answer is Yes)

Should We Fear the Robot Revolution? (The Correct Answer is Yes) »

Volume/Issue: 2018/116

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Edward Buffie , and Luis-Felipe Zanna

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484300831.001

ISBN: 9781484300831

Keywords: Income distribution, Production, Technological change, robots, growth, Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, General

We may be on the cusp of a 'second industrial revolution' based on advances in artificial intelligence and robotics. We analyze the implications for inequality and output, using a model with two assumptions: 'robot...

Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth

Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2018/117

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reda Cherif , Fuad Hasanov , and Lichen Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357170.001

ISBN: 9781484357170

Keywords: Productivity, Economic growth, Export sophistication, Weak instrument, Models with Panel Data, Single Equation Models: Single Variables: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

We shed new light on the determinants of growth by tackling the blunt and weak instrument problems in the empirical growth literature. As an instrument for each endogenous variable, we propose average values of the...

Permanently Displaced? Increasingly Disconnected? Labor Force Participation in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

Permanently Displaced? Increasingly Disconnected? Labor Force Participation in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas »

Volume/Issue: 2018/118

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hilgenstock , and Zsoka Koczan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354858.001

ISBN: 9781484354858

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Labor force participation, exposure to routinization, exposure to offshoring, technology, automation, Trade and Labor Market Interactions, Globalization: Labor, Labor Force and Employment

The United States stands out among advanced economies with marked declines in labor force participation. National averages furthermore conceal considerable within-country heterogeneity. This paper explores regional...

Montenegro
			: Selected Issues

Montenegro : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/122

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357026.002

ISBN: 9781484357026

Keywords: Montenegro, Europe

Selected Issues...

Montenegro
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

Montenegro : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/121

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484356968.002

ISBN: 9781484356968

Keywords: Europe, Montenegro

The economy has grown strongly since 2015, bolstered by large investment projects and buoyant tourism. Banking sector health continues to improve, with private credit growing and balance sheets strengthening. While...

Albania
			: 2018 First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release and Staff Report

Albania : 2018 First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/123

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357071.002

ISBN: 9781484357071

Keywords: Europe, Albania

Albania's economic recovery remains strong, benefiting from a favorable domestic and external environment. Economic growth is picking up backed by strong domestic demand, energy-related foreign direct investment, a...

Employment Time and the Cyclicality of Earnings Growth

Employment Time and the Cyclicality of Earnings Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2018/115

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eran Hoffmann , and Davide Malacrino

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353561.001

ISBN: 9781484353561

Keywords: Economic cycles, Europe, Italy, employment time, earnings growth, Economic Growth of Open Economies

We study how the distribution of earnings growth evolves over the business cycle in Italy. We distinguish between two sources of annual earnings growth: changes in employment time (number of weeks of employment wit...

Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018, Europe
			: Managing the Upswing in Uncertain Times

Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018, Europe : Managing the Upswing in Uncertain Times »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484339909.086

ISBN: 9781484339909

Europe continues to enjoy a strong growth spurt. Growth has firmed up in many European economies and the forecast is for more of the same. Real GDP increased by 2.8 percent in 2017, up from 1.8 percent in 2016. The...

Resource Misallocation and Productivity: Evidence from Mexico

Resource Misallocation and Productivity: Evidence from Mexico »

Volume/Issue: 2018/112

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Florian Misch , and Christian Saborowski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353578.001

ISBN: 9781484353578

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Mexico, Resource Misallocation; Productivity; Distortions, Resource Misallocation, Productivity, Distortions Author&;amp;#x2019;s, Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

This paper explores the role for specific structural distortions in explaining Mexico's weak productivity growth through the resource misallocation channel. The paper makes two contributions. First, we validate the...

International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks

International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks »

Volume/Issue: 2018/114

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Callum Jones , Mariano Kulish , and Daniel Rees

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353554.001

ISBN: 9781484353554

Keywords: Spillovers, Forward Guidance, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Zero Lower Bound, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics

After 2007, countries that cut their policy interest rates close to zero turned, among other policies, to forward guidance. We estimate a two-country model of the U.S. and Canada to quantify how unexpected changes...

Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach

Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2018/113

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yevgeniya Korniyenko , Manasa Patnam , Rita Maria del Rio-Chanon , and Mason Porter

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353240.001

ISBN: 9781484353240

Keywords: Spillovers, Financial contagion, International financial markets, network analysis, Neural Networks and Related Topics, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Globalization: Finance

This paper studies the interconnectedness of the global financial system and its susceptibility to shocks. A novel multilayer network framework is applied to link debt and equity exposures across countries. Use of...

Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources

Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources »

Volume/Issue: 2018/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Samba Mbaye , Marialuz Moreno Badia , and Kyungla Chae

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353592.001

ISBN: 9781484353592

Keywords: Public debt, historical debt, private debt, debt-to-GDP, debt database, General, General, International, or Comparative

This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is th...

The Bahamas
			: Selected Issues

The Bahamas : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/119

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484355176.002

ISBN: 9781484355176

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Bahamas, The

Selected Issues...

The Bahamas
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

The Bahamas : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/118

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484355084.002

ISBN: 9781484355084

Keywords: Bahamas, The, Western Hemisphere

The Bahamian economy has turned the corner. Growth is expected to pick up to 21/2 percent in 2018, supported by the completion and opening of the tourist resort Baha Mar and a stronger U.S. economy. But without res...

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
			: Seizing the Momentum

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department : Seizing the Momentum »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 May 2018

Language: Spanish

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484348925.086

ISBN: 9781484348925

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018-19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expecte...

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
			: Seizing the Momentum

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department : Seizing the Momentum »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484339879.086

ISBN: 9781484339879

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018-19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expecte...

Tax Policy Measures in Advanced and Emerging Economies: A Novel Database

Tax Policy Measures in Advanced and Emerging Economies: A Novel Database »

Volume/Issue: 2018/110

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): David Amaglobeli , Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Pooja Karnane , and Florian Misch

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354865.001

ISBN: 9781484354865

Keywords: Political economy, Political economy, Tax Reforms; Text Mining; Tax Policy; Implementation Lags, Tax Reforms, Text Mining, Tax Policy, Implementation Lags, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data

This paper describes a new, comprehensive database of tax policy measures in 23 advanced and emerging market economies over the last four decades. We extract this information from more than 900 OECD Economic Survey...

Republic of Uzbekistan
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan

Republic of Uzbekistan : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan »

Volume/Issue: 2018/117

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354896.002

ISBN: 9781484354896

Keywords: Uzbekistan, Middle East

Uzbekistan has initiated far-reaching reforms to tackle the country's most pressing economic and social challenges, foremost the lack of jobs. The reforms aim at opening and liberalizing Uzbekistan's segmented econ...

The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness

The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness »

Volume/Issue: 2018/108

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dongyeol Lee , Huan Zhang , and Chau Nguyen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353288.001

ISBN: 9781484353288

Keywords: Fiscal balance, Debt sustainability, International trade, Natural Disaster, Growth, Valuation of Environmental Effects, Environment and Growth

Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term...

Real Exchange Rates, Economic Complexity, and Investment

Real Exchange Rates, Economic Complexity, and Investment »

Volume/Issue: 2018/107

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Steve Brito , Nicolas Magud , and Sebastian Sosa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354834.001

ISBN: 9781484354834

Keywords: Foreign exchange, Firm-level investment, real exchange rate, misalignment, Open Economy Macroeconomics

We show that the response of firm-level investment to real exchange rate movements varies depending on the production structure of the economy. Firms in advanced economies and in emerging Asia increase investment w...

Peeling Away the Layers: Impacts of Durable Tariff Elimination

Peeling Away the Layers: Impacts of Durable Tariff Elimination »

Volume/Issue: 2018/109

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Arevik Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan , and Christian Henn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353684.001

ISBN: 9781484353684

Keywords: Economic integration, World Trade Organization, Non-discriminatory Trade Policies, MFN Tariff Elimination, Information Technology Agreement, Trade Policy Certainty, Global Value Chains, Product-Level Data, Country and Industry Studies of Trade

We demonstrate that durable MFN tariff elimination affects trade patterns through several layers, which generates non-linear impacts. First, complete tariff elimination results in a large additional trade gains ove...

Gender Equality: Which Policies Have the Biggest Bang for the Buck?

Gender Equality: Which Policies Have the Biggest Bang for the Buck? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/105

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sonali Jain-Chandra , Kalpana Kochhar , Monique Newiak , Yang Yang , and Edda Zoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353257.001

ISBN: 9781484353257

Keywords: gender gap, female labor force participation, General, Economics of Gender, Education and Inequality

This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal and structural policies and gender inequality in education and labor force participation for countries at different stages of development. Due to the substantial...

Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach

Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2018/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sergi Lanau , Adrian Robles , and Frederik Toscani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354827.001

ISBN: 9781484354827

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Colombia, Inflation Components, Phillips Curve, Forecast, Forecasting and Simulation

We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the Phillips curve is relatively f...

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific
			: Good Times, Uncertain Times: A Time to Prepare

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific : Good Times, Uncertain Times: A Time to Prepare »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484339886.086

ISBN: 9781484339886

Asia is expected to grow by about 51/2 percent this year, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global growth, and the region remains the world's most dynamic by a considerable margin. But despite the strong outlook,...

Where Have All the Profits Gone? European Bank Profitability Over the Financial Cycle

Where Have All the Profits Gone? European Bank Profitability Over the Financial Cycle »

Volume/Issue: 2018/99

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrica Detragiache , Thierry Tressel , and Rima Turk-Ariss

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354544.001

ISBN: 9781484354544

Keywords: Financial crises, Financial Cycle, Bank Profitability, Financial Crisis, General

The paper investigates EU banks' profitability through the recent financial cycle using banklevel balance sheet and income statement data. We find that banks that were more successful at protecting their profits ha...

The Needle in the Haystack: What Drives Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Countries?

The Needle in the Haystack: What Drives Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Countries? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/101

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Romain Duval , Davide Furceri , and Jakob Miethe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353639.001

ISBN: 9781484353639

Keywords: Structural reforms; labor market; product market; deregulation; employment protection; unemployment benefits; Bayesian averaging of maximum likelihood estimates, Structural reforms, labor market, product market, deregulation, employment protection, unemployment benefits, Bayesian averaging of maximum likelihood estimates, Model Evaluation and Testing, Labor Economics Policies

The political economy literature has put forward a multitude of hypotheses regarding the drivers of structural reforms, but few, if any, empirically robust findings have emerged thus far. To make progress, we draw...

Scarcity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Market Liquidity: Evidence from the Japanese Government Bond Market

Scarcity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Market Liquidity: Evidence from the Japanese Government Bond Market »

Volume/Issue: 2018/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Dulani Seneviratne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353677.001

ISBN: 9781484353677

Keywords: Japan, Asia and Pacific, Quantitative easing, quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, market liquidity, Japanese government bond, scarcity effects, Models with Panel Data, Single Equation Models: Single Variables: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Quantitative Policy Modeling

Quantitative easing could improve market liquidity through many channels such as relaxing bank funding constraints, increasing risk appetite, and facilitating trades. However, it can also reduce market liquidity wh...

Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession

Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession »

Volume/Issue: 2018/1000

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nan Li , and Vance Martin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354582.001

ISBN: 9781484354582

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, United States, Spillovers, Intersectoral Linkages, Dynamic Factor Models, Real Business Cycles, Input-output Structure, Time-Series Models, Input-Output Models

This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers....

Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models

Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models »

Volume/Issue: 2018/98

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh , Sami Ben Naceur , Oussama Kanaan , and Christophe Rault

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353622.001

ISBN: 9781484353622

Keywords: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Middle East, Oil prices, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Republic of, GCC stock markets

Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results r...

Foreign Currency Bank Funding and Global Factors

Foreign Currency Bank Funding and Global Factors »

Volume/Issue: 2018/97

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Signe Krogstrup , and Cédric Tille

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353660.001

ISBN: 9781484353660

Keywords: Capital flows, Spillovers, Currency mismatch, push factors, cross-border transmission of shocks, European bank balance sheets, International Lending and Debt Problems, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

The literature on the drivers of capital flows stresses the prominent role of global financial factors. Recent empirical work, however, highlights how this role varies across countries and time, and this heterogene...

Debt Seniority and Sovereign Debt Crises

Debt Seniority and Sovereign Debt Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2018/104

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anil Ari , Giancarlo Corsetti , and Luca Dedola

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353691.001

ISBN: 9781484353691

Keywords: Debt crises; Sovereign default; Seniority; Eurobonds; Multiple equilibria; Self-fulfilling expectations, Debt crises, Sovereign default, Seniority, Eurobonds, Multiple equilibria, Self-fulfilling expectations, International Lending and Debt Problems, Asset Pricing

Is the seniority structure of sovereign debt neutral for a government's decision between defaulting and raising surpluses? In this paper, we address this question using a model of debt crises where a discretionary...

Cross-Border Transmission of Fiscal Shocks: The Role of Monetary Conditions

Cross-Border Transmission of Fiscal Shocks: The Role of Monetary Conditions »

Volume/Issue: 2018/103

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave , Giang Ho , Ksenia Koloskova , and Esteban Vesperoni

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353530.001

ISBN: 9781484353530

Keywords: Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, Fiscal policy; monetary policy; effective lower bound; international spillovers, effective lower bound, international spillovers, Models with Panel Data, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), General

Fiscal stimulus was widely advocated during the global crisis, a period characterized by monetary policy constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) in many countries, in part because of expected positive spillo...

Are Remittances Good for Labor Markets in LICs, MICs and Fragile States?

Are Remittances Good for Labor Markets in LICs, MICs and Fragile States? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ralph Chami , Ekkehard Ernst , Connel Fullenkamp , and Anne Oeking

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353615.001

ISBN: 9781484353615

Keywords: Labor markets, Inclusive growth, Remittances, Low income countries, fragile countries, middle income countries, Dutch Disease, Factor Income Distribution

We present cross-country evidence on the impact of remittances on labor market outcomes. Remittances appear to have a strong impact on both labor supply and labor demand in recipient countries. These effects are hi...

Malawi
			: Selected Issues

Malawi : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/116

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354513.002

ISBN: 9781484354513

Keywords: Malawi, Sub-Saharan Africa

Selected Issues...

Malawi
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Malawi : 2018 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility »

Volume/Issue: 2018/115

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354445.002

ISBN: 9781484354445

Keywords: Malawi, Sub-Saharan Africa

Malawi's economy has made progress in achieving macroeconomic stabilization following two years of severe drought and lingering consequences of corruption scandals. However higher, more inclusive, and resilient gro...

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Sub-Saharan Africa
			: Domestic Revenue Mobilization and Private Investment

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Sub-Saharan Africa : Domestic Revenue Mobilization and Private Investment »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484339862.086

ISBN: 9781484339862

Keywords: Economic situation, Economic growth, Africa, Oil exporting countries, Investment policy, Investment, economic outlook, economic projection, sub-Saharan Africa

The region is seeing a modest growth uptick, but this is not uniform and the medium-term outlook remains subdued. Growth is projected to rise to 3.4 percent in 2018, from 2.8 percent in 2017, on the back of improve...

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Sub-Saharan Africa
			: Domestic Revenue Mobilization and Private Investment

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Sub-Saharan Africa : Domestic Revenue Mobilization and Private Investment »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): Céline Allard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 May 2018

Language: French

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484348918.086

ISBN: 9781484348918

The region is seeing a modest growth uptick, but this is not uniform and the medium-term outlook remains subdued. Growth is projected to rise to 3? percent in 2018, from 2? percent in 2017, on the back of improved...

Mali
			: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment

Mali : Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment »

Volume/Issue: 2018/114

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353851.002

ISBN: 9781484353851

Keywords: Mali, Sub-Saharan Africa

This Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) for Mali brings to light a robust, although paradoxically inefficient, management framework. In accordance with the methodology prepared by the Fiscal Affairs Dep...

Mali
			: Evaluation de la gestion des investissements  publics - PIMA

Mali : Evaluation de la gestion des investissements publics - PIMA »

Volume/Issue: 2018/114

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 May 2018

Language: French

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353905.002

ISBN: 9781484353905

Keywords: Mali, Sub-Saharan Africa

Cette évaluation de la gestion des investissements publics (PIMA) au Mali met en lumière un cadre de gestion robuste dont l'efficience est paradoxalement faible. Conformément à la méthodologie élaborée par le dépar...

International Financial Statistics, May 2018

International Financial Statistics, May 2018 »

Series: International Financial Statistics

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484331446.041

ISBN: 9781484331446

International Financial Statistics, May 2018...

Ghana
			: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana

Ghana : Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana »

Volume/Issue: 2018/113

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353714.002

ISBN: 9781484353714

Keywords: Ghana

Program performance improved in 2017 and macroeconomic conditions have strengthened considerably. Growth increased on the back of expanded oil production; inflation declined; the fiscal deficit was significantly re...

Israel
			: Selected Issues

Israel : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/112

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353387.002

ISBN: 9781484353387

Keywords: Israel, Europe

Selected Issues...

Israel
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

Israel : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/111

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353301.002

ISBN: 9781484353301

Keywords: Europe, Israel

Israel's economy is growing well with inflation remaining low and the housing market cooling. Growth of about 31/2 percent in 2017 helped bring unemployment below four percent in early 2018, supporting robust wage...

Turkey
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey

Turkey : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2018/110

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353196.002

ISBN: 9781484353196

Keywords: Turkey, Europe

Growth rebounded sharply in 2017, helped by strong policy stimulus in the wake of the 2016 post-coup attempt slump and by favorable external conditions. Although expansionary policies were initially warranted, they...

Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2017

Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2017 »

Series: Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484300992.012

ISBN: 9781484300992

Keywords: Classification of exchange rate arrangements, Trade restrictions

The Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions has been published by the IMF since 1950. It draws on information available to the IMF from a number of sources, including that provided in the c...

Instruments, Investor Base, and Recent Developments in the Malaysian Government Bond Market

Instruments, Investor Base, and Recent Developments in the Malaysian Government Bond Market »

Volume/Issue: 2018/95

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yinqiu Lu , and Dmitry Yakovlev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353073.001

ISBN: 9781484353073

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, International financial markets, Malaysia, local currency government bonds; FX derivatives; Malaysia, local currency government bonds, FX derivatives, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General

Foreign holdings of Malaysian local currency (LCY) government bonds have increased since the global financial crisis. By exploring the micro-level bank by bank and fund by fund data, we are able to shed light on th...

A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean

A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2018/94

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio David , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353059.001

ISBN: 9781484353059

Keywords: Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Taxation, Uruguay, Western Hemisphere, Argentina, Fiscal policy, Guatemala, Jamaica

This paper presents a new database of fiscal consolidations for 14 Latin American and Caribbean economies during 1989-2016. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by...

Vanuatu
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

Vanuatu : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/109

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353127.002

ISBN: 9781484353127

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Vanuatu

Three years after Cyclone Pam struck Vanuatu causing extensive damages, reconstruction efforts are near completion with full recovery in sight. However, capacity constraints and coordination issues have hampered th...

West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)
			: Selected Issues

West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/107

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484352816.002

ISBN: 9781484352816

Selected Issues...

West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)
			: Selected Issues

West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/107

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484352816.002

ISBN: 9781484352816

Selected Issues...

On Bank Consolidation in a Currency Union

On Bank Consolidation in a Currency Union »

Volume/Issue: 2018/92

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Di Vittorio , Delong Li , and Hanlei Yun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484352755.001

ISBN: 9781484352755

Keywords: Banking; Banking Regulation; Financial Stability, Banking, Banking Regulation, Financial Stability, Government Policy and Regulation

The paper focuses on the impact of diversification on bank performance and how consolidation through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) affects the banking sector's stability in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (EC...

Financial Crises, Macroeconomic Shocks, and the Government Balance Sheet: A Panel Analysis

Financial Crises, Macroeconomic Shocks, and the Government Balance Sheet: A Panel Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2018/93

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matteo Ruzzante

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484352762.001

ISBN: 9781484352762

Keywords: Government debt, Crisis management, Financial crises, Financial crisis, Government Financial Assets, Banking Crisis, Debt Sustainability Analysis

Government financial assets are increasingly recognized as playing an important role in assessing fiscal sustainability. However, very little research has been done on the dynamics of government financial assets co...

A New Strategy for Korea's Fiscal Policy in a Low Growth Environment

A New Strategy for Korea's Fiscal Policy in a Low Growth Environment »

Volume/Issue: 2018/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Edda Zoli , Hou Wang , and Douglas Laxton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484352724.001

ISBN: 9781484352724

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Korea, Republic of, aging; long-term fiscal sustainability; structural reforms; potential output, aging, long-term fiscal sustainability, structural reforms, potential output, Forecasting and Simulation

Adverse demographics and other structural weaknesses impinge on Korea's long-term fiscal outlook and potential growth. Moreover, inadequate social protection is creating poverty and dampening consumption. The paper...