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Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2017/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Florian Misch , Brian Olden , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Lamya Kejji

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325933.001

ISBN: 9781484325933

Keywords: Fiscal policy, JEL Classification Numbers: E01, E32, H68 Keywords: Nowcashing, Real-time data, Nowcasting, Nowcashing, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

Traditionally, fiscal data for policy analysis are derived from official reports that, depending on the country, are published either monthly, quarterly or annually, often with significant time lags. However, innov...

Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries

Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2017/110

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anja Baum , Andrew Hodge , Aiko Mineshima , Marialuz Moreno Badia , and Rene Tapsoba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 May 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475599046.001

ISBN: 9781475599046

Keywords: Public debt, Fiscal space, sustainability, SDGs, low-income countries, Deficit

According to U.N. estimates, low-income countries will have to increase their annual public spending by up to 30 percent of GDP to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), raising the question of whether t...

Demographic Changes in Latin America
			: The Good, the Bad and …

Demographic Changes in Latin America : The Good, the Bad and … »

Volume/Issue: 2017/94

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Santiago Acosta Ormaechea , Marco Espinosa-Vega , and Diego Wachs

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 April 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475594775.001

ISBN: 9781475594775

Keywords: Aging, Government expenditures and health, public pension spending, public healthcare spending, pension system reforms, Social Security and Public Pensions, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

The paper develops a simple, integrated methodology to project public pension cash flows and healthcare spending over the long term. We illustrate its features by applying it to the LAC5 (Argentina, Brazil, Chile,...

Fiscal Crises

Fiscal Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2017/86

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kerstin Gerling , Paulo Medas , Tigran Poghosyan , Juan Farah-Yacoub , and Yizhi Xu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 April 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475592153.001

ISBN: 9781475592153

Keywords: Economic growth, Financial crises, fiscal crisis, sovereign debt default, twin crises, Deficit, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes, General Outlook and Conditions

A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal cris...

Fiscal Decentralization and Fiscal Policy Performance

Fiscal Decentralization and Fiscal Policy Performance »

Volume/Issue: 2017/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Moussé Sow , and Ivohasina Razafimahefa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 March 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475588606.001

ISBN: 9781475588606

Keywords: Fiscal balance, Fiscal decentralization, policy cyclicality, Intergovernmental Relations, Deficit

This paper explores the impact of fiscal decentralization on fiscal policy performance in a large sample of advanced and developing economies. The findings suggest that a larger share of decentralized expenditure i...

Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations
			: Do They Mean What They Say?

Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations : Do They Mean What They Say? »

Volume/Issue: 2017/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sanjeev Gupta , João Tovar Jalles , Carlos Mulas-Granados , and Michela Schena

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475581133.001

ISBN: 9781475581133

Keywords: Government expenditures, Governance, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal policy, Cross country analysis, Political economy, Fiscal adjustment, budget plan, budget implementation

This paper analyses the causes and consequences of fiscal consolidation promise gaps, defined as the distance between planned fiscal adjustments and actual consolidations. Using 74 consolidation episodes derived fr...

Myanmar
			: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar

Myanmar : 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar »

Volume/Issue: 2017/30

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475574098.002

ISBN: 9781475574098

Keywords: Article IV consultation reports, Balance of payments statistics, Asia and Pacific, Budget deficits, Debt sustainability analysis, Fiscal policy, Financial sector, Fiscal reforms, Flexible exchange rate policy, Economic growth

This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Myanmar's economy grew broadly as expected in FY2015/16, at a healthy pace of 7.3 percent, despite massive floods during July-September 2015. Activity softened duri...

Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area

Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area »

Volume/Issue: 2017/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luc Eyraud , Vitor Gaspar , and Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 January 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475572919.001

ISBN: 9781475572919

Keywords: Political economy, Euro Area, Fiscal policy, Fiscal reforms, political economy factors, deficit bias, procyclicality, fiscal rules

This paper provides evidence of fiscal procyclicality, excessive deficits, distorted budget composition and poor compliance with fiscal rules in the euro area. Our analysis relies on real-time data for 19 countries...

Lebanon
			: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon

Lebanon : 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon »

Volume/Issue: 2017/19

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475570618.002

ISBN: 9781475570618

Keywords: Article IV consultation reports, Balance of payments statistics, Current account deficits, Debt sustainability analysis, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal risk, Fiscal policy, Economic conditions, Economic growth, Economic indicators

This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Lebanon's economic growth remains subdued. Following a sharp drop in 2011, growth edged upward briefly to 2-3 percent, but has now slowed again. The IMF staff estim...

Fiscal Rules to Tame the Political Budget Cycle
			: Evidence from Italian Municipalities

Fiscal Rules to Tame the Political Budget Cycle : Evidence from Italian Municipalities »

Volume/Issue: 2017/6

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lorenzo Forni , and Andrea Bonfatti

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 January 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475569971.001

ISBN: 9781475569971

Keywords: Time series, Fiscal rules, Italy, Europe, Government expenditures, Budgets, Regression analysis, local government finance, regression discontinuity, Cross-Sectional Models

The paper provides evidence that fiscal rules can limit the political budget cycle. It focuses on the application of the Italian fiscal rule at the sub-national level over the period 2004-2006 and shows that: 1) mu...